Open 506: Pick Your Power X/Y, Game Over

[Yesterday]

Hey everyone, apparently I’m replacing Stryker. Few quick things, I an indeed an alt and while my main may become obvious I’d rather not reveal it; attempting to tweak a few things about my play-style to see if it’s more effective. Second thing is that I have played this setup in the past and followed various games of it, there is strategies that scum consistently use in regards to how they split their numbers and if they double up or not but I’ll go into that in more detail soon. And third thing is that I've skimmed along briefly and got some reads but want to do a big re-read through it all in the next hour or so but relatively confident that Sakura is mafia from what I've read; there's a massive difference between Scum!Sakura and Town!Sakura with Town!Sakura engaged, asking questions, stating reads thoughts and providing content whereas Scum!Sakura moreso just attempts to coast through the game, I'll grab some links when I'm done re-reading but her play here is nothing like what I've seen of her town play and almost a mirror image of her scum play.

[Yesterday]

Alright, I'll start with number analysis - I've found in the past town are much more willing to grab number 1 in an attempt to prevent scum from grabbing the strongest power roles whereas scum are slightly more hesitant at doing it, so yeah I disagree with Sievures argument, see for instance Team Mafia where scum took #6, #6 and #9 and used the double up as an attempt to clear themselves if one of them got lynched and nearly no one picked up on it whereas two townies took #1. That said the playerlist there consists of a much stronger group of players and I don't anticipate that scum have doubled up here or if they have it certainly won't be on #1 meaning that solely from a numbers point of view people who selected #1 are either both town or only one being scum making them suboptimal lynches.

I actually think numbers ranging from #2 - #6 or so is where scum often go because it's not so high that they're unlikely to not get first choice and the odds aren't super high of doubling up despite it happening here on #2 and #4. I also don't think scum would triple up on a number since that's suicidal and I don't think this playerlist would have people ballsy enough to double up since doing so effectively means they're saying they think they're good enough as scum to dodge the lynch and power roles actions. Given that scum have a quick topic to discuss their plan there'd be a consensus behind what their strategy is meaning there'd likely also be more thought process behind a number choice from scum than from town but with scum wanting to refrain from elaborating in their reasoning so it's best if everyone explains flat out why they picked the number they have if they haven't yet.

Will post my reads and thoughts on the thread in about half an hour, almost finished.

[Yesterday]

Strong Town Reads:

1)

Sievures deep thought about where scum likely are inside the numbers and hunting of finding past games to use as a baseline isn't something I think he'd do as scum at all - it's something he'd keep private and his explanation behind his number choice so openly is massively town, also don't think he attempted to use his high number choice to "clear himself" vocally at all and don't think he got over-defensive, finding his scumhunting as very genuine and would bet a lot on him being town here.

2)

I find this post by YTWC insanely town, I don't think scum would say "can I quote the PM I sent" at all since it'd be a lie given that from what I've seen scum submit their guesses inside a QT (My memory might be wrong on that but that's what I remember from Team Mafia) and his reasoning behind picking #1 is as above what I think town would have rather than scum, explanation again in this post is also town. So yeah similar to Siv would bet he's town for sure.

3)

I've seen Scum!Beli before and he was very lazy and Post 187 looks absolutely nothing like his scum play, the entire reads list and "I'll keep notes and either post in the dead thread or upon a scum flip" reads incredibly incredibly town and genuine. Jesus christ from that post alone I'd bet anything he's town.

Weaker Town Reads: 1)

As much as I detest Mutleys playstyle of essentially being useless as fuck I don't think he's scum here, I very much like his vote on Cade here given that I also think that's a relatively scummy post from Cade and I think he'd be a bit more appeas-ish as scum whereas his argumentative attitude here doesn't feel like scum that's attempting to dodge lynches at all. That said he's not my strongest town-read at all.

2)

I've liked how Piece has attempted to factor into the game the draft alongside with reads; it's how I play and I like his early attempt at making a case not sure how he hasn't stood back and realized how weak and bad it is, think the meta research post in this post reads town though and think he 'top half lower, scum-reads in top half in this post reads as genuine scumhunting. Wouldn't bet he's town like Siv, Beli and YTWC but fairly sure he's town. 3) Alabaskas reasoning behind his number choice and his suspicion of Sievure both read as genuine, his "should we lynch the anti-town player if we think they're potentially scum only" type suggestion is something I've seen much more from town than from scum and I think his "context means everything" ect. type angle reads as town scumhunting rather than scum fabricating thoughts.

Null Reads: 1)

Didn't like Deckards initial posts, seemed very fillery but I actually like a lot of his reasoning behind his reads list in this post and can follow and understand most of it that said the comparison in explanation behind the Mutley scum-read and the Sakura null-read is just ugh.

2)

Not sure on Xdaamno at all, will likely re-read him when I've had some sleep but getting a guttish town vibe from the tone of his posts at the moment but attempt not to hinge too much on my gut. Will get back to you on him when my brains fully functioning though.

3)

I'm biased with Crimml, his post here doesn't add to the game but given that he picked #4 and Sakura picked #4 and I'm fairly confident she's scum I'd say he's more likely town plus I think given that scum would have put in effort of pre-game discussion about number strategy I think the "re-reading" "vanishes never to reappear" is slightly more likely to come from town. 4) I need to re-read Smudgen again when my brains working, my mind changed 3-4 times on him from "He's actively lurking in the sense his discusison is mostly about theory points rather than reads" to "I can understand where he's coming from" and back and forth.

Weaker Scum Reads: 1)

I didn't like this post from Cade, ignores everything else that's happened and reads like opportunistic scum and it's essentially attacking for "Not contributing" something he himself is doing. Decent chance the slot is scum.

2)

Will admit that this might be slightly paranoia-fuelled given that the last game of TMT's I followed this game I had read him as town and was quite shocked when he flipped scum but I think there's a decent chance he's scum this game. I think his reasoning behind his attack on Beli in Post 94 is so weak to the point where I don't buy that he believed it and I don't buy his meta read on Sakura in Post 142 for a second given that I'm pretty damn positive she's meta-scum here and it reads like an attempt to bullshit a reason to town-read a partner, also the fact that his town-read on her is stronger than on Sievure doesn't sit right at all. Don't really see any scum-reads or thoughts of that manner from him at all either, he's minimizing the enemies he makes which makes a lot of sense for scum to do at this point since it allows them to coast through and have less chance of being night-actioned.

Sakura gets her own post where I can point out how obvscum she really is.

Pedit: Sievure if you go with the "Everyone thinks 4 is safe therefore it isn't" line of reasoning to state that scum aren't on 4 then we're going to end up going in circles over ever number; it's at the point where over-thinking will hurt us. Right now the less assumptions we make the better, the only things I'd be confident about is that scum aren't likely doubled up in this playerlist and 1 is more likely town than scum but not assured by any means.

[Yesterday]

Vote: Sakura

I was going to write up a massive post explaining why Sakura is scum but anyone that can't see it from opening up her ISO really needs to learn how to play; She has been active lurking throughout the entire day, she’s avoided stating reads and stances, the only reads she’s made are these

“I'm liking Xdaamo attitude so far.”

which doesn’t lock her into anything really and doesn’t tell us a whole lot about her thought process and

“So basically Beillisarious made a whole post of nothing”

which is a complaint but lack of statement whether she finds it to be a scum-tell or not then jumps on Smuger for something she’s misread.

No analysis, no reads, nothing. The fact that she's garnered zero votes up until this point is just unbelievable, enjoy this readthrough - a town game of hers where there's 226 posts in one day phase and it's all scumhunting and attempting to get reads and progress her thoughts and another town game of hers where there's 111 posts in two day phases, lots of thoughts and reads ect. and her scum game where there's a lot less scumhunting and reads and a lot more coasting and filler posting similar to here. I'd literally eat a hat if she's not scum here (And I don't eat hats).

[Yesterday]

Yeah her Smudger vote reads as an opportunistic attempt to jump on an upcoming wagon with bullshit reasoning that she has to back of when pointed out; the fact that she hasn't attempted to scumhunt to find an alternative scum-read essentially is enough proof she's scum.

And Mutley, we haven't played together before but I have followed along many of your games played.

Anyway I'm going to try and get some rest then I'll go back and do a few re-reads of my nullish reads later on.

[Yesterday]

Even in the game you linked there's a lot of scumhunting and thought process behind your posts, for instance Post #38, Post #49 and so forth. And "No idea on number stuff so haven't said much" is bullshit, people have barely commented on numbers as of late and there's been a lot of scumhunting that doesn't involve numbers, you haven't done any. None. Zilch.

[Yesterday]

Cades going to be replaced and I'll be able to get a read on his replacement making him a suboptimal lynch not to mention that Sakura is incredibly obvious scum and that if we don't lynch her today it'll likely be a repeat of past games where I'll just get nightkilled and watch her cruise through the game with the "Oh scum wouldn't shoot someone who FoS"s" them stupid type WIFOM, literally ISO'ing her and then reading her meta should prove she's scum.

And you'll find out who I am post-game I suppose or probably when I get shot in the dead QT.

[Yesterday]

It's not "solely" on meta though; it's also to do with the fact that she's been filler posting, actively lurking and hasn't attempted to scumhunt, stated zero scum-reads, no real town-reads and defence was "Well your meta isn't fully accurate!". That's not just meta-tells that's flat out scum-tells.

[Yesterday]

I really like Elyse's replace in post - seems to be on a similar wavelength to me on a lot of things and the focus on the "can I quote the PM" thing feels really town - think scum would be attempting to downplay that post. I think she's wrong on the "Reads list are bad" theory though but that's playerstyle related rather than alignment related (Don't want to go into this too much since it's not really super game related but reads list are a good thing if they're attached with reasoning. Even if it gives scum a 'road map of who to shoot' it's better than refraining from outting reads and thoughts and dying with them which is useless and reading other peoples reasoning on their reads allows reassessment on the reads yourself while allowing you to get a better idea of what the person who posted the reads is thinking ultimately making them easier to read. In other words the amount of gain from it way overpowers the negative).

Bleh, I really don't like PPP's lack of commenting on my replace in given that I've replaced who was his big scum-read, the switch without saying "Okay, yeah I was wrong on X" or anything of the sort feels like leaving the option to move back at a later time and dislike the complete ignorance of the Sakura case and her reaction.

That said Sakura, if you're town don't just do the "Well I give up lynch me" shit. If you're town convince me I'm wrong, read back state your thoughts and reads (It's not possible to have zero thoughts on a game even if you don't understand numbers related discussion) and try and let me understand your thought process.

[Yesterday]

Going to cook some dinner and get some study out of the way then I'll get around to re-reading the nullish players.

This game needs a serious burst of activity from a lot of players though.

[Yesterday]

Smudger, I don't read Xdamnoos post that way at all, I read his initial post merely as a "This is a game don't be so serious, relax a bit" post that has nothing to do with alignment other than "Game is meant for fun" and then his follow up response to PPP being that PPP is misconstruing his post to be something that it's not.

---

Finished re-reading Smudger, still dislike the amount of mechanical-discussion posting but I think his frustration with Mutleys lack of contribution is genuine for instance in Post 210 he's trying to get a read on Mutley rather than attempting to push a mslynch on him. His explanation behind his reads are very understandable, specifically I like his "Slight tipping town but can't put a finger on it" type comment about Albaska in Post 201 since that's how I often feel as town but never have said/felt as scum. Also think the "more scum reads than in the game" is a comment scum would avoid making given that it can be twisted to use as ammunition to push against themselves whereas town aren't afraid to state they have excessive numbers of scum-reads.

Gone through Deckard again and I still hate his initial posts, very very filler based and Post 74 is a leading question to Mutley that allows him the potential to move to vote him in the future without really analysing his alignment and the question makes less sense given that Deckard himself RVS'ed in Post 7. Difference between the Mutley, Cade, Sakura ect. type reads in Post 159 is rather bad and if Sakura does flipp scum which I still think she will he fits perfectly as a partner. Also hate how he's lurked through the last few days with his profile here showing that he was online two days after his last post but didn't post here; points towards lurking scum given that he hasn't garnered much attention and just coasting through waiting for my slot to be mslynched.

Decided to go over Alabaska again, his Post 52 reads genuine, like his 'regardless of your alignment you got the ball rolling so congrats' doesn't feel like something scum would say, also like his 'want to be more confident before voting' type stance and like that he pointed out Cades opportunistic vote in Post 68. Still like his stance and explanation re; policy lynching so more confident he's town now and looking forward to the catch-up post.

So right now I'd say Beli, Mutley, YTWC, Sive, Elyse, Smudger, Alabaska are town and lean towards Sakura, TMT, Cade and Deckard being scum with the need to still go back over PPP and Xdamamno when I get spare time in the next few hours.

[Yesterday]

I think I just hit the jackpot, sorry if this seems messy but notice this:

Playerlist:

Belisarius
Mutleyddmc
Smudger
Your Troubles Will Cease

Sakura Hana

Siveure DtTrikyp
pieceofpecanpie
Alabaska J
*Xdaamno Moon
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Elyse Crimml
Deckard
*Cade
Yesterday Stryker

And Deckards reads list order in Post 159:

Belisarius
Mutleyddmc
Smudger
Your Troubles Will Cease
Siveure DtTrikyp
pieceofpecanpie
Alabaska J
Xdaamno
TMTOLBTWNTOF
Crimml
Cade
Stryker

Sakura Hana

---

He's left his scum partner until last to state a read on while doing everyone else in the OP's order.

[Yesterday]

I mean at this point I'm very very certain it's Sakura + Deckard; happy to lynch either today and the other tomorrow (In fact Deckard might be the optimal lynch given he's #7th on the draft list whereas Sakura is #14 therefore he's more likely a scum PR than she is but want others opinions on this first). It's just about working out the third scum which is either TMT, Cade or one of PPP/Xddamno who I'll re-read soon.

[Yesterday]

If I hadn't made that clear already, consider this my post to say that I haven't been able to involve myself anywhere near as much as I would like to have over the past few days. Is there something you want me to look at? Or are you just idly trying to sling some dirt my way? My #216 makes things reasonably clear.

Timing of posts and "I'm busy ect." statements are hard to grasp upon replacing in; that said I still didn't like your attack on Xdamno, it ignores a lot of what's gone on and is very weak; while you might be 'busy' and have 'limited time' your post shows you've read the thread and it only takes an extra minute or two to comment on alternative content. There is something in particular that I want you to read and that's Deckard and Sakura individually, their interactions and mentions of each other (Specifically Deckard calling her null for reasons he's called other scum) and the reads list order not matching that I pointed out above.

[Yesterday]

Yesterday, what are you implying with the playerlist post specifically?

I thought it was crystal clear? Every name in his reads list is in the EXACT same order as the OP reads list other than Sakura. That means when making his reads he had the OP reads list and followed it but decided to leave Sakura to later. There's no reason for him as town to leave Sakura to later but there is as scum; him not being sure on how to read his partner and deciding it based on how many scum-reads he can state elsewhere ect.

Also what reads of mine do you disagree with?

[Yesterday]

Got around to re-reading Xdaamno, I like that while he doesn't agree with Sieuvres reasoning he finds it town in Post 35 because I'm in a similar boat there. I like the attempt to get meta on Alabaska in Post 168, scum generally avoid having to bother doing meta research whereas town happily do it. Think his scum-read on PPP while being weak is something he believes in and find his "was re-reading Sakura yesterday and noticed that" type comment reads as genuine scumunting, decently confident he's town at the moment; want to hear what reads of mine he disagrees with with reasoning behind it though.

I don't like Post 58 from PPP, the tone of it seems to be stating a slight scum-read on Siv without blatantly saying it and given how I read his initial posts as relatively obvtownish this feels off. I like the insistence behind having a question answered in Post 75 though. His scum-read on Stryker reads genuine in Post 84 despite some glaring logical issues (ie. Posting pictures is a playerstyle tell and not an alignment one, his "there's not much point discussing why someone picked 1" clearly being him stating that there's no point overly speculating ie. Stating scum wouldn't pick 1 or town wouldn't pick 1 or that scum wouldn't double up which matches with his prior posts and the case on that is incredibly stretchy and the 'unique number strengthens scum-read" which makes zero sense given that someone attaining a unique number isn't likely to make them town or scum in that case.) His reasoning behind the numbers + reads together in Post 97 shows deep thought process though and reads town, I still don't like Post 268 but him being superbusy makes it less bad. Waiting on his response via Deckard and Sakura to get a stronger read on him though but right now I'd still lean towards him being town but it's a very iffy read in comparison to most of my other town-reads.

[Yesterday]

Welcome to the new players. Quite busy right now but I'm surprised to see I'm a scum candidate? I didn't put Sakura at the end of my list on purpose. Copy/paste issues most likely.

If I flip town

(though I intend to catch up and defend myself if needed), it doesn't mean Sakura isn't scum.

Copy paste issues is bullshit, there's no way you copy both things on both sides of it ie. above and below but miss one line. Also the bolded is a scumslip.

[Yesterday]

Lets go here first given that he's a more likely scum PR and just slipped blatantly:

Vote: Deckard

Sakura tomorrow.

[Yesterday]

Sakura tomorrow not Cade, Cade picking #1 is a slight redeeming quality for the slot (Think 1 is slightly more likely to be town picked than scum picked) and Deckards interactions with Sakura (Calling her null for things he called others scum, putting her last on his list) and her play alone makes her supremely more likely scum than Cade. Still think TNT might be the third scum but again should re-read him later and I know it's a weird request but if we won the doctor I'd rather like them to be on me tonight given that I'm high up on the draft and therefore obviously have a PR plus I think I'm a likely night-kill target given catching Deckard/Sakura.

[Yesterday]

Not sure what about it you don't like; it's rather simple, given my position scum already know that I have a PR and therefore from that alone am a high priority kill target, that coupled with my play makes it incredibly likely they'll try and kill me tonight meaning it's optimal if we won doctor for them to be on me.

[Yesterday]

It's not at all, I'm third on the order and I'll essentially say it; I have a PR that's rather strong meaning doctor being on me is super important.

[Yesterday]

I think you should have let the doc make that decision

And then I end up dying with a super strong PR and watch town somehow lose what we really shouldn't be able to lose from the dead QT? No thanks. If doctors on me there's no risk whatsoever and with Deckard and Sakura!Scum and the strong town-reads I have we should have a win in a day or two.

And we're just waiting on people to come online and vote Deckard now.

[Yesterday]

Piece, that's fine as long as you get to it. Also look at Deckards slip and vote him.

Sakura, is there a reason you're not voting Deckard right now then? And I literally refuse to believe that you have

zero

thoughts, I followed along your newbie game where you were doctor and you had a thought on nearly

everything

and weren't afraid to state it.

Cut by Mutley.

[Yesterday]

Sakura, you've admitted Decklan has slipped but

still

aren't voting him despite saying "Tbh I rather get Decklan lynched but I'm still going to be found scummy" when town shouldn't care if they're suspected for voting and lynching scum because well lynching scum is our goal.

And lets get this straight; you're stating that me finding you scummy for having no reads, not scum-hunting and actively lurking is

framing you to look scummy

and not that those aren't all flat out scum-tells that you've dropped. As for why I'm using an alt because I've found people tend to form opinions about my main without reading my posts and let that affect their opinion of my content so using an alt means that I can have people judge my opinions solely on their merits, it allows me to see if I'm just being listened to because of who I am or because of what I say. And no; I don't think you 'scumhunted' in your scum-game, I think you were rather obvious and just filler and fluff posted like you are here and that's why you were lynched D1 there and it's why I'm stating the similarity in your useless posts from here to there since I've seen you contribute when you're town and you haven't here.

PPP, I hope that's directed to Sakura and not myself (And no; she's not an alt).

[Yesterday]

It's not just meta that makes me think you're mafia; meta's just icing on the cake. It's the fact that there's no attempt to contribute from you just active lurk.

And again you've stated that he's scum-slipped, that makes him you-know-scum. Shall I point you to "

If

I flip town" again.

[Yesterday]

We're lynching Deckard today, not you, at this point it's essentially confirmed he's mafia (And saying "If I flip town" is a slip because town know that they're going to flip town and don't say 'well if i flip town x might be mafia still' it'd be 'if i get lynched or when i flip town ect.') not to mention his C/P thing is obvious bullshit since it's impossible to C/P a list and miss a middle name from doing so. Not to mention him responding to a prod 9 minutes after it's sent proves he's actively lurking through the day despite being here and watching the game (Odds are he's actively posting inside the scum QT during the time).

But I'll tell you what; tomorrow if we lynch you and you flip town then sure I'm willing to eat a bullet or lynch for it (Odds are scum night-kill me before then anyway).

[Yesterday]

Oh right there's another person meta reading me. With an opposite read as yours, care to explain this discrepancy? (inb4 TMT is my partner)

Weaker Scum Reads:

2)

Will admit that this might be slightly paranoia-fuelled given that the last game of TMT's I followed this game I had read him as town and was quite shocked when he flipped scum but I think there's a decent chance he's scum this game. I think his reasoning behind his attack on Beli in Post 94 is so weak to the point where I don't buy that he believed it and

I don't buy his meta read on Sakura in Post 142 for a second given that I'm pretty damn positive she's meta-scum here and it reads like an attempt to bullshit a reason to town-read a partner, also the fact that his town-read on her is stronger than on Sievure doesn't sit right at all.

Don't really see any scum-reads or thoughts of that manner from him at all either, he's minimizing the enemies he makes which makes a lot of sense for scum to do at this point since it allows them to coast through and have less chance of being night-actioned.

You're clearly not reading all my posts.

And you're ignoring the obvious facts that make Deckard scum - the fact that he responded to a prod posted in here 9 minutes after it and was up to date with everything that had been said up until that point proves that he's been reading the thread but not posting and given that this is his only game on the site that points so heavily to him being scum following along to post in a scum QT but not needing to post here because he was under no pressure.

[Yesterday]

Yeah there is meaning that his second partner was someone that he'd have found easy to do rather than to leave for later, likely someone he'd have stated a prior read on and therefore could rattle-of-his-tongue without having to worry about how it'd look in conjunction with his other reads.

[Yesterday]

Again you're trying to say that I'm

framing you

when I've linked the games of yours that I've followed and explained the differences (And boy are there differences) as well as pointed out your sheer lack of attempts at scumhunting here; those are facts and you've admitted to them yourself so how is that

framing

and not legitimately thinking you're mafia from it. It's getting to the point where if you're town here you can join my dodge-list.

Deckards activity isn't similar to yours; he's been avoiding the thread while being online (Time between prod and his post and what it contains proves it) and given scum have daytalk that's how scum will be playing, ie. minimizing activity in thread when they can to not cause ripples if they're not garnering attention and just following along and strategizing in their QT. Add in his reads list having inconsistencies it being impossible to C/P missing a middle section and the 'if' slip and he's guaranteed scum, the fact that you're avoiding voting him here is really just making me more confident that you're partners.

Anyway I'm going to bed. Again; if there's a doctor need to be on me tonight (And I know it's risky but I'm pretty much seeing it as I'm a prime scum-kill via play and draft position meaning any chance of having doctor on me is better than none) if scum stole that role and I somehow die never ever lynch Beli, Siv, YTWC or Mutley.

[Yesterday]

Well derp, not sure if that's a forced town-tell or legitimate, either way glad we're doing Decklan over Sakura now. Yes, scum do have daytalk which is why Decklan following along and not posting is so scummy, it's typical scum play with day-talk.

Factional communication:

At

any time

you may talk with your partners here.

[Yesterday]

Sadly can't sleep.

Sakuras last few posts really make me question my read on her (She'd know there's a vig and daytalk as scum and not sure she's the type to play dumb on purpose about setup specifics). Deckards "Don't hammer until I have something up" despite nothing following through on it feels very much like him waiting for scum partners to come online and discuss what he should do to get out of this situation ie. What he should fake-claim and who he should push on ect.

Mutleys reaction-test trolly hammer makes him even more obvtown and like Sakura pointing that out in Post 353.

[Yesterday]

Not necessarily about the vig.

Scum would have gone through all of the roles and which they should / shouldn't attempt to draft-take, vig would have been included in that (Either N3 vig or 1-shot vig). As for fake-claims there's claiming alternative role, claim their real role, claiming a partner role, claiming the alternative of a partners role, claiming a randoms role to rolefish. There's heaps of options which is why I think he's vanished waiting for advice.

[Yesterday]

Alabaska, re: Post 365 1) I don't think the PM thing is a null-tell in the slightest, while it's fairly known to be 'against the rules' it's not a tactic I think scum would use since in most rooms people would dismiss the comment and not make much of it whereas it's a very natural line of thought from town, as is picking 1 as an attempt to prevent scum getting a PR and sure it's possible scum could have done that to get town-read but it's a suboptimal strategy since it essentially guarantees they won't get a strong PR and the trade-off of not having a PR while giving the town another PR isn't worth "Being able to say I picked 1 to stop scum" in the slightest. 2) While I've linked only a few posts for most players they're not the only posts that make me think they're town at all, merely the strongest examples, linking and explaining each individual case is too time consuming and unneeded if they're not likely to get mslynched - if a strong town-read of mine was getting voted on the other hand then yes I'd explain it in massive detail. 3) I disagree with the "Lots of town posts unravelled by one scummy post" since while scums aim is to "Seem town" it's not easy to do naturally therefore it's easier to town-hunt than scumhunt (Since you'll find some scummy-townies but you'll often not find very-townie-scum) which is why I rely a lot more on my town-reads. 4) I know that 'someone agreeing with me doesn't automatically make them town' but someone in the exact same wavelength as me and thought process is generally a town-tell, perhaps not the strongest one in the world but it's certainly a good sign.

Deckard may have also been in another game/left the website open so the whole following-the-daychat thing is a little fishy to me. also i would expect scum to pretend not to know about something the minute it is proposed, that's just the right play. i also am not as confident about the scumslip with deckard (i would probably use conditional phrasing as well seeing as not everyone knows my alignment). i would be willing to lynch deckard though just to get the game going since the case against him certainly has its merits and a large portion of the town seems to think he is scum

He's not in another game, checked. And 'leaving the website open' doesn't explain getting the prod, reading the thread and commenting in 9 minutes. It's essentially confirmed he was following the thread without posting (Fact that he was online 30th of june and posted on the 28th proves as much) and since then he's gone into 'appear offline' so he's lurking around the thread but not posting, that fits scum with daytalk perfectly.

[Yesterday]

Now taken some sleeping pills, will be knocked out soon. Please for the love of god though if there's a doctor on me tonight.

Yesterday any reason you keep calling Deckard Decklan? Small point and of no real consequence,

I'm terrible with names. Really terrible. I used to call Amrun Amrum for about a year before I was mocked and started correcting it.

[Yesterday]

Hey everyone. Been away during the weekend; glad to see that I'm still alive but I have a gripe about something - will go into it in detail soon.

Going to catch up now.

[Yesterday]

Alright; please don't skim but actually read the following paragraphs deeply because they're important.

Mass-claim isn't actually that terrible of an idea and had vig not shot last night I'd probably have been backing it 100%. I think we can get minimum three or so clears from a mass-claim as well as help piece together a few things that are troubling me massively at the moment. That said there's a better way around it and that's not a mass claim but those specific roles claiming since while it may give scum potential clearages / obvtown to shoot they're generally weaker roles and doing so allows stronger roles to stay alive and if scum want to shoot and aim for stronger roles they risk potentially hitting VT's and fucking themselves over due to it.

With a scum lynch D1 scum would not waste their extra vig shot on Sakura therefore whoever has the back-up role is essentially 100% town (You can argue they did so to be town-read but that also means they'd be shooting a claimed VT which is massively suboptimal and a risk scum wouldn't take). Also since backup took a 1-shot vig and used it they're essentially a roled-VT meaning scum have no real need to kill them and them having claimed makes PoE'ing scum easier. So unless someone thinks that I'm looking at this completely incorrectly the universal backup should claim. I also don't think scum would have bothered to waste a potential draft pick on neighbourizer/fruit vendor and that role is relatively low-powered so them also claiming isn't a bad idea at all.

Here's what I know for a fact: Either scum won doctor/roleblocker or tracker/jailkeeper or an idiot townie won jailkeeper. Since if scum won doctor/roleblocker I don't think they'd have roleblocked me but instead just flat out shot me given no-risk of there being a doctor in the setup that leaves the most likely explanations being that the jailkeeper was on me last night and it makes little sense for a town jailkeeper to be on me when I blatantly stated that I was a role that needed to be allowed to do it's usages meaning what the most likely situation here is that scum won jailkeeper. If I'm wrong and an idiot townie fucked up and took jailkeeper and used it on me they need to fess up otherwise anyone who tried taking jailkeeper/tracker need to claim since we'd know that it would have been taken above them and therefore know which part of the playerlist most likely has scum. Also given that Deckard was about half-way down the draft order and took 1-shot vig I think there's a decent shot of a scum being above him (Scums highest draft would likely have risked going for something potentially stronger).

---

Anyway on to flat out reads. I'd still bet the world that Siveure, Mutley and YTWC are town (The case of interactions with Deckard-YTWC is awful; the entire thing actually strengthens my town-read on him and it's not what I consider to be typical partner interaction). TMT sadly has a very high chance of being town given that he's also the same number as Deckard and I don't think newbie-scum would double-up; I wouldn't say he's 100% town but right now he's not for lynching. I still like Alabaska for town (I don't think his attempt to move it back to Sakura over Decklan at the end there is a scum-tell, I mean I can understand the logic behind thinking that way just don't agree with it; at that point I think it was obvious Decklan was getting lynched and think he'd have bussed as scum and not defended partner - also have liked majority of his other posts). Still think Elyse is town but she's due for a re-read (Her catch-up post matched me thought process well and read town but I think she's decreased in content since)* and Xdaamno and PPP I want to sit down

again

and go over while checking their interactions with Decklan but PPP promised a lot of content and want to see that first.

The case against Smudger isn't half bad; Deckards read on him in Post 159 should be scum for those reasons but he's still listed as null. I also don't think Smudger responded to being accused of back-tracking and that's the sort of thing I think he'd respond towards and one thing I've noticed is scum don't deeply read into their partners posts since they don't need to convince them therefore don't respond to partners that much. Smudgers read on Deckard in Post 201 is weird too and his vote on Smudger in Post 368 is about at the time that I'd expect scum to buss - plus Deckard likely wouldn't have self-hammered if he didn't have a partner voting for him; he'd have let his partner hammer him to grab town-cred so scum are likely in the late voters. Also think him being the top placement and not taking the role I have is incredibly weird as town since it's the role I'd have instantly took as #1 and I think Beli dying as #2 while Smudger was #1 and I had insisted on being doc'ed as #3 points towards Smudger being scum; also can potentially see him as being the person that took JK/Tracker or Doc/RB and blocked me. Still think the Cade slot has a decent chance of being scum, hated his only post and interaction-wise with Deckard he fits as a partner. Waiting for AA to fully catch up to get a decent read on that slot though; and the "yeah almost caught up" needs to end and instead we need actual content; even if it's in parts.

[Yesterday]

Actually the more I think about it the more the #1 draft pick looks like scum.

Town wouldn't want a Night 3 vig-shot/Vengeful, 1-shot commuter/1-shot watcher or Neighbourizer/Fruit Vendor so badly they'd pick first draft on it and Beli wouldn't double up going one of these second meaning that Smudger can't have one of those roles. I have cop (Which I think is fairly obvious) meaning he doesn't have that and 1-shot vig Deckard had which only leaves Doctor/Roleblocker, Universal Backup/Rolecop and Jailer/Tracker. Picking roleblocker as town is stupid and me being roleblocked means if roleblocker was taken he's scum, universal backup is a weak role and dumb to take first and since we know that was taken over rolecop safe to say that he doesn't have it and jailer/tracker in a situation where again I was roleblocked points towards scum having it.

Vote: Smugen

Edit: Cut by Siv saying basically the exact same thing, awesome that I'm not the only one on this wavelength.

[Yesterday]

Neighbourizer is very town, but I don't really think it's worth it for them to claim. It's actually pretty strong in the right hands. I'm not 100% sure those hands exist in this playerlist, but they should probably keep it quiet nonetheless.

Way I see this is; Neighourizer is obvtown given that scum have daytalk and thus don't need a QT and therefore would use their three picks on roles that hold some real value towards them. Scum wouldn't shoot a claimed neighbourizer since they'll be more focused about either hunting for doc (Assuming they don't have it) or shooting me (If they do have it) meaning that neighbourizer claiming will be essentially giving us a near IC in the thread that'll be alive for a while to come. If you add that to the amount of obvtown players we have and whoever claims backup then we're in a really really good PoE position.

[Yesterday]

Siveure, I still think that neighbourizer outright claiming here alongside with backup gives us a lot more clarity and makes process of elimination incredibly easy but it's not worth arguing about it massively; at this point it's really about Smudgen claiming and explaining why he took whatever he took (And also JK claiming if they're town and fucked up by jailing me) as well as a lot of inactives coming in and stating their thoughts.

Speaking of which: YTWC, as much as I'm pretty sure you're town you posting elsewhere and not sharing thoughts and reads with us is shitty. Actually help please.

[Yesterday]

I'd much rather just start by Smugen posting claiming and explaining his actions and choices; think if he's scum he'll get caught from it and think if he's town we'll be able to catch a scum from it via hunting down who has the roleblocker / jailkeeper role.

[Yesterday]

Just start with Smudger claiming and explaining then we'll work out the claiming system after that.

We've got ages (13 days) so no need to rush the rest of the claims.

[Yesterday]

PPP; Here's why I think claiming (If not mass at least some form) is good: I was roleblocked or jailed last night. Town wouldn't jail a claimed investigative role. That means we know for a fact (Barring some real stupidity) that scum have either roleblocker or jailer. Claiming can work out who has that. I'll give you an example. Lets say draft spot #4 says they tried to go for roleblocker/doctor but got VT meaning it was prior taken and no one of #3, #2 or #1 claimed roleblocker that means we know that one of #1, #2, #3, #4 is scum. Follow the logic there? + Add to that the neighbourizer and backup role claims are two clears essentially which means add them to Siv/YTWC/Mutley obvtown pile (Assuming there's no double up's) and we might have 5 or so obvtown/clears making this the easiest PoE game there is.

[Yesterday]

Siv, I'm going to bed in a few minutes. Just don't start a mass-claim or claimage system until Smudger has claimed and I've got a chance to see it.

[Yesterday]

@Yesterday

I need more time to consider point you're making from massclaiming. It's still bloody dangerous and we could even comfortably PoE it down to a similar number with the info we have right now. Or at least that's the impression I get, but notes must be scribbled on this.

It's not necessarily mass-claiming. Right now we're just starting with Smudger claiming with his actions and others claiming if it means confirming his action as fake. Given the strength of the case on Smudger I'd imagine you understand the advantage of him claiming here. Any more than that we can work out later.

[Yesterday]

Trollings really not needed Mutley. Just wait for Smudgen. Also PPP's recent posts have read extremely town, think his stance on the "no claiming" comes much more from a town mindset then a scum one; think scum would just play-along and not vocally disagree. I'd probably add him to the 'supertown' pile (Also him initially voting Smudgen with really decent reasoning points towards PPP being very town alone if Smudgen is indeed scum anyway).

Going to sleep now. Catch you all later.

[Yesterday]

Smudger; What are you claiming?

[Yesterday]

I'm guessing tracker? But I want a blatant statement from you of it.

[Yesterday]

Then claim; What role are you. Don't be coy.

[Yesterday]

LOL LOL LOL LOL

Another confirmed scum; no one put him to L-1 since he'll self-hammer and there's still more stuff I want to get out.

[Yesterday]

Okay, if he had JK he'd fake-claim tracker meaning him fake-claiming cop means he has zero outs to fake claim. That means he has roleblocker which means there's no doctor in which case I'm dead tonight so this'll be my last to actually get reads out, if there's any read people don't understand or agree with of mine they need to point it out now; otherwise I want them listened to and followed on. First and most importantly Mutley, Siv, YTWC and PPP are town and never ever ever to be lynched. TMT due to numbers is very unlikely to be mafia but more likely than any of the four names above, don't lynch him in the next few days though.

I still have partial town-reads on Alabaska, Elyse and Xdaamno. Also Smudgens Post 277 and Post 279 point towards Xdaamno being town.

Cade/AA's slot is an incredibly good lynch tomorrow. I'll do some more reading later. But we really should be winning this from a position of two scum down in the first two days with power roles out there (Tracker/JK turn into a 100% clearages tonight since there's 1-scum that must submit the night-kill meaning JK should be on a scum-read, if a kill goes through that person becomes clear).

[Yesterday]

Deckard's read on Smudger: Null but points out something scummy

This actually makes TMT confirmed town too; scum don't comment on partner A's reasoning on partner B's being wrong. So never lynch TMT.

[Yesterday]

I don't "think" you're fake-claiming. I know you are. I'm cop and I wouldn't fake-claim a role I didn't have as scum since that's well..stupid.

You had to though since you didn't have a fake-claim option due to picking roleblocker and being caught roleblocking me.

[Yesterday]

Lol you realize the more you post the more you help us have content to read your partner from?

I mean there's no point for you to even pretend you're town anymore. If I've read correctly someone has a report of you visiting me last night; if you visited me last night you wouldn't have been roleblocked since roleblocked people cannot visit meaning you're 100% confirmed scum from that alone. Add to that I wouldn't randomly claim a role I didn't have as scum since it'd lead towards being lynched if not that day guaranteed the following day and I wouldn't be bussing a 1-shot vig partner without them getting their vig shot of first. So really you're as confirmed scum as they come.

[Yesterday]

Not getting much more interaction wise.

So if you need a summary: PPP, Mutley, Siv, YTWC and TMT are all 100% town. Do not and I mean it do not lynch any of them.

Xdaamno reads town interaction wise and from play but I wouldn't bet a lot on this and it's probably best if others re-read him too. Alabaska I read as town from play but him leading on YTWC and not on Smudgen today when interaction wise Smudgen looked significantly worse feels bad, I wouldn't rule him out as scum at all. Elyses comment in Post 254 commenting on Deckard and Smudgens reads lists and how they give scum a road map of who to kill is something I don't think scum would pick out their two partners to talk about so from that alone and her play I'd say she's town but again don't bank on it. Thinking we're dealing with Cade as final scum. Very much consider a mass-claim tomorrow or the day after - the information from it is incredibly needed (For instance Smudgen having roleblocker means scum wouldn't have wanted tracker/JK so whoever has that is town, whoever has neighbourizer is probably town and whoever has backup is town for sure).

[Yesterday]

Look I'm not going to back-and-forth with you. Anyone walking in here will realize you're confirmed scum; you can keep trying to deny it all you want but it's a fact.

Anyway don't think I'm going to glean too much more from re-reading at the moment. Will take a break and try again later.

[Yesterday]

PPP, I soft claimed pretty heavily yesterday in Post 298, Post 300, Post 302, Post 305, Post 332 and Post 371 and today in Post 432 and hardclaimed in Post 434.

Even if we are wrong we have yesterday to lynch tomorrow. Wonder what role the liar actually is? That will be interesting to find out

He's a roleblocker. 100%. It's one of the strongest scum powers, he was first on the list and I was roleblocked last night meaning scum have it. Add to that if I'm right about what I'm reading re; a soft-claim then he and only he visited me last night confirming him as 100% the mafia roleblocker.

[Yesterday]

Where's this bit? What'd I miss? I haven't seen confirmation of a tracker, or don't you want to point out something you've picked up on?

I'd rather not point it out since it gives scum knowledge of a PR they might not know but if you re-read you might see it.

And he's fake-claimed because he's got roleblocker; he can't claim roleblocker because no townie would take roleblocker over doctor. That means he has to come up with an alternative claim; while there's the other-role in that he could claim doctor that'd make him even more obvious scum since no townie #1 on the draft would pick doctor so instead he's thrown a hail mary of cc'ing me in an attempt to dodge a lynch and de-credit me.

[Yesterday]

While you're here though if you disagree with any of my reads (ie. Siv/Mutley/YTWC/TMT being town without a doubt) nows the time to tell me and I'll explain them in more depth because scum having doctor/roleblocker means this is my last day alive.

[Yesterday]

Alabaska, here's why PPP is town:

1) His push for no-mass-claim and reasoning behind it rings incredibly genuine and as scum it's not something he'd vocally disagree with given that it puts him in the limelight which he wouldn't want and mass-claiming also helps scum to a degree which he'd want. His entire thought-process there is very town.

2) His vote on Smudger at the start of today is SUPER town. Scum that lost a partner yesterday would not be bussing their other partner today, no chance in the world. None. Add to that scum wouldn't be bussing their partner that's a roleblocker given how strong the role is and how much it's needed for scum. Add to that if PPP was scum and scum had roleblocker I would be dead, not roleblocked since he's smart enough to work out optimal play is to flat out shoot me. And add to that further if PPP was scum Deckard and Smudgers claims would have been coached given that scum have daytalk and both of their reactions to pressure (The self-vote and the cop claim) show they're not being helped by someone experienced or at all.

3) Smudgers interactions with PPP don't fit as partners; Post 149 where he says "So in essence, Pecan, he gets a wild card into D2?" isn't the sort of comment scum makes to partners especially scum with daytalk and Post 151 isn't about a partner. And his Post 471 of "I acknoeledge Pecans vote and will answer any questions come Sunday." is not what scum say about their partner voting them.

[Yesterday]

Yeah, we won't prolong it too much. I just want enough time to do another re-read through of the thread tonight to see if I missed anything glaringly obvious in my earlier read through and discuss some reads with PPP first or explain anything he doesn't understand about my strong town reads.

[Yesterday]

I think I'm going to lose my mind if I read through anymore. Here's a summarization of my thoughts and please come back to this post often:

1)

Mutley, PPP, Siveure, TMT and YTWC are incredibly town and never to be lynched.

I've explained most of these reads in detail at different points but they're essentially due to combinations of things ranging from very genuine scumhunting and thought suggestions to interactions with Deckard and Smudger and Smuger and Deckards interactions with them and their reactions towards claiming ideas. I'd bet a lot on them all being town so don't take this lightly.

2)

Cades slot needs to be dealt with tomorrow or the following day

, just from process of elimination lack of content and interactions with both scum it's a very good chance of hitting scum.

If that fails you need to look inside of Elyse, Alabaska and Xdaaamno

but there's things that make me think all are town and interaction-wise I don't think Xdaamno fits but again if it's not Cade process of elimination from my super strong town reads means it's one of these three.

3)

If watcher hasn't used their 1-shot they should be on me tonight;

if they do so and mafia shoot me which mafia will the game becomes automatic win.

4)

Tracker / JK need to be on their scum-reads

from hereon out.

JK should also breadcrumb their target for the upcoming and past night

starting from tomorrow so if they die people can look back see who they were on and clear that person - This is since anyone jailed with 1 scum in the game and a kill going through becomes a clear and we should be able to get at least 2-3 clearages through this.

5)

Mass-claim can probably happen on D4

thinking about it but I'm kind of hoping we have a perfect D1-D2-D3 scum lynch win. Again remember that

whoever has universal backup is as good as confirmed town, whoever has jailkeeper/tracker and neighbourizer/fruit vendor are very likely town

.

[Yesterday]

Your watcher statement is pure wifom. I doubt the scum are shooting you now.

With roleblocker getting lynched they won't be able to prevent me from getting a report so they're going to have to risk shooting me. And if they don't; awesome it'll mean that I get a 100% confirmed report. Either way watcher needs to be on me if they have their 1-shot left because odds scum risk it are high.

And hypojailing is actually a really good idea. Not sure why I didn't think of that.

[Yesterday]

What happens if smudger is not the roleblocker/jailkeeper? I assume watch you anyway, right?

I think he has to be. If he was any role other than the roleblocker he'd have claimed that role and not fake-claimed cop. And him being first in the order means he'd instantly go for the best role for scum (Which is roleblocker) add to that him visiting me and me being roleblocked = he has to be roleblocker. But yeah regardless watcher should be on me tonight. I'd go more into night-action analysis down this path but I think the more we talk about the benefits / downsides the more we're going to help them make their kill and I think just leaving it as if watcher has the shot they're on me forces scum into a tough decision tonight.

[Yesterday]

Also this:

Deckard's read on Smudger: Null but points out something scummy

This actually makes TMT confirmed town too; scum don't comment on partner A's reasoning on partner B's being wrong. So never lynch TMT.

[Yesterday]

I can't believe you are still debating this.....

We're not? Everyone knows you're scum. We're just organizing actions and bouncing of reads while we have the chance.

Once everyone comes in and posts a hypojail target we can lynch.

[Yesterday]

Yeah. I suppose you can self-vote if you want and speed it up for when we finish the hypojailing so only 1 vote would be needed then.

[Yesterday]

You shouldn't, lynching scum is our win condition. That said we shouldn't drag this day on too much, I've re-read as much as I can and stated all my thoughts and reads in case I die. We could enforce a 12 hour limit or something and anyone that hasn't hypojailed then all jail AA.

[Yesterday]

Sure, hypothetical jailkeeper claiming is where everyone says "I'm jailing X" with X being who they would jail if they were a jailkeeper. Everyone sticks towards their jailkeeper target at night and if the jailkeeper dies we can go back and look at who they jailed. Since there will be only 1 scum left alive the person jailed would be clear since you can't submit a kill if you're jailed. The aim of it is to give information without outting the jailkeeper to do it.

[Yesterday]

I really want a perfect win.

I'll just settle with 'a win'. I've nailed 2/3 of the scum-team D1/D2 in a past game where I was then shot and watched them mslynch over-and-over again lynching all my town-reads and scum managed to win it. As long as none of Siv, Mutley, PPP, TMT and YTWC are lynched we should have it.

[Yesterday]

Did smudger effectively admit he was jailer then?

I read it more as him saying that scum will be shooting JK soon? We'll find out upon his lynch anyway.

[Yesterday]

Alright, going to bed. I'm fine with a hammer being cast at any time now. Anyone that hasn't hypojailed by the time the hammers dropped should jail AA.

Please and I mean it please do not forget my reads.

[Yesterday]

I can see why the wagon on Smudger exists given his Deckard interaction, so I'd be reasonably happy with his lynch..

He's already claimed scum and self-voted.

[Yesterday]

Vote: AA

Guilty on AA. Game over. Thanks for the game Jennifer.

[Yesterday]

YTWC is a watcher that watched me N1 and saw Cade visit me. Fairly sure.

[Yesterday]

Also I guessed Siv as doctor with his "That seems unlikely" being a distancing from the role and his play and PPP being backup that shot Sakura with TMT as neighbourizer.

Wonder how many of those are right.

[Yesterday]

Look. It's not a reaction-test. It's a flat out guilty. Games over everyone just needs to come in and vote.

[Yesterday]

Haha well it gives me a chance to get my thoughts down. Also I'll take a punt at everyones roles and I'll see how close I am post-game:
1. 1-Shot Watcher: YTWC (Watched Yesterday N1).
2. Universal Backup: PPP
3. Doctor: Siveure
4. Neighbourizer: TMT
5. N3 Vig / Vengeful: No idea. Maybe Scum AA?

Siveure DtTrikyp: Doctor
Cade (AA) : Vengeful
TMTOLBTWNTOF: Fruit Vendor (Neighbourizer)
pieceofpecanpie: universal backup

I had them all right other than YTWC!

[Yesterday]

I agree with Siv. Fruit vendor is for the most part useless, the only way they can clear themselves is if there's only 1 scum left and having a role that can clear themselves only in a specific situation vs a role that can discuss thoughts outside of the thread with town-reads of theirs and make plans is much better.

Vote: Sakura

...I'd literally eat a hat if she's not scum here (And I don't eat hats).

waiting on the video

Uh...

[Yesterday]

Just read the DT / Mafia QT. I think scum struggled with lack of experience and this isn't an easy setup to play scum for the first time, there's only a few strategies that are really viable and the selection of first-spot-on-the-draft and not taking cop was a big mistake. Doing so would have prevented town from getting it, you'd have been able to claim it yourself and use it as a reason for why people should keep you alive and you'd have been town-read potentially for picking cop over alternative options. Also think mafia going for both 1-shot vig and vengeful was another mistake, those roles are obvious ones that scum would aim for making a mass-claim really hurt scum had it happened. Scum needed to try and grab one role like doctor or backup.

But yeah, thanks again for the game Jennifer.

[Yesterday]

Yeah I'm not entirely sure that's a good method to use at all; seems to allow those with fewer posts to get by easier and hurts those that are very active. Plus a lot of the tells are merely player-related rather than alignment related. Also I haven't played with you or modded a game of yours but I followed the entirety of Unoriginal Mafia where you replaced into Nunez and were scum and sections of your micro hosted by DV where you were town.