Open 520: Stacking the Deck Part II - Game Over...Mafia Win!

[jsmith1234]

Well that's unfortunate that we rolled IC. That's probably the worst role we could have gotten.

Anyway, awestfie is almost certainly town. She noobslipped, indicating that she doesn't know how mafia night actions work in this setup. Either she fakes that as mafia or it's a legit towntell. I read through all her posts on this site, and she is a relatively new player who didn't experience this kind of noobslip in the games she's played so far. Therefore, it's very likely this was not a faketell. She is as close to clear as it gets. And I advocate outting both scum and town reads in mafia, regardless of the fact that townreads give more useful info to mafia when they're deciding their nightkills.

I originally was planning on reading the past games of the experienced players in this game, to see if any of them have pointed out this type of noobtell in the past as town but didn't do so in this game thus far, but that requires a significant amount of effort that probably isn't worth the potential benefit, realistically speaking. Not sure if SoundsofMusic was alluding to the noobtell in his townread on awestfie.

From doing a quick read of anorway's past games, he seems to have some good meta on Sakura Hana (though he ended up voting her anyway when she pushed on him, even though they were both town). Therefore, I'd like to leave them both alive for now barring any other incriminating information. Of course, a bunch of you probably have good meta on each other, so this might be a moot point. This is my 2nd game on this site so I can't speak to that. Feel free to counter this argument.

With nothing else to go off of, I currently recommend lynching an experienced player, since newer players tend to be easier to read, and it's not like anyone here is so new that they're potential liabilities if left running the show.

##Vote: JasonWazza

[jsmith1234]

Thanks Mutley. If it helps, I'm already cleared, but good read. : P

[jsmith1234]

Sorry, I didn't tag my earlier vote.

VOTE: JasonWazza

[jsmith1234]

Ah thanks, wasn't sure.

[jsmith1234]

Good luck with the move, Tammy, sounds exciting (minus the actual hassle).

[jsmith1234]

Well that's unfortunate that we rolled IC. That's probably the worst role we could have gotten.

Why? I would have though it would be one of the best? Not only is it a confirmed town that we won't run the risk of mislynching but it has the potential depending on what we get with it to cause possible missed NK's. Though I like it most because it's one less person that I need to at.

The way I see it is that IC is an optimal kill for mafia N1. If our other PR is BG and BG logically saves me, then BG dies. If our other PR is not a protective role, then mafia guarantees taking out the IC. Either way, town is left with one PR by D2. This assumes mafia didn't elect to take on any extra buffs, which seems logical and is also the currently established proper play for this setup.

Had we been given any other role, mafia would be left in the dark as to who both the PRs are, which seems a lot more beneficial to town considering we necessarily don't have a doctor.

[jsmith1234]

IC is the least optimal kill for mafia on N1, they are conf town... that's all they are, they can even buddy them and convince them during MyLo/LyLo to lynch town... the other PRs on the other hand, are way more dangerous due to their night actions which can screw up the mafia's plans.

Perhaps that's the prevailing meta on this site, in which case that's good for me. Still, I personally don't agree. If there really are only two town PRs, then at some point it becomes advantageous for mafia to just get rid of the IC and leave town in the dark. Unless the investigative role or vigilante are lucky enough to take out all the scum themselves or survive till late game, it seems that a 3-way lylo with no-clears is very likely to happen. Plus if our other PR is a BG, then we have no offensive roles at all in this game to stop mafia.

Anyway, probably best for me to not discuss this further - no point in helping mafia flesh out their upcoming mafia kills.

[jsmith1234]

Thanks bubba, that info is appreciated. And true, I guess we have to weigh the potential benefit of having a good experienced player alive who's town vs. the easier time we'll have reading newer players + avoiding an experienced mafia player misdirecting us. Perhaps we can reach a good balance of having some experienced players with more newer players alive.

So at the very least I'd prefer taking out one experienced player from the get go.

@Sakura: I noticed Game 520 isn't on your wiki as an on-going game.

[jsmith1234]

@elleheathen: Heh yeah, scumhunting has never been my forte, which is why I tend to rely on setup mechanics and meta abuse, and prefer to foster environments that favor those types of tactics.

@SoundsofMusic: Agreed regarding your point on IC kill speculation.

[jsmith1234]

LOLOLLOLOLOLOLOL

This is the good old "he's the IC (newbie games IC not this IC) LYNCH HIM" argument outside of a newbie game, there is no reason i am any better then any of you, and if i am, how does the possiblity of lynching an experienced scum player outweigh that of lynching an experienced town player?

AND OF COURSE THE IC IS THE ONE TO DO THIS RETARDED SHIT

We've already seen how a relatively newer player can make this game easier for town (i.e. awestfie is almost certainly town for her noobslip). We don't really need a bunch of experienced town players in this game if there are several newer players who can make getting reads easier imo. Yes, a more proper way to approach this is to go for the experienced player who has shown to be a far better mafia player than they are town player, but I didn't go through the effort of figuring that information out. Bottom line, I'm not advocating a lynch of a newbie game IC because they might trick me as scum. I'm advocating it because relatively inexperienced players are less likely to trick me as scum, so I'd prefer they be alive rather than the experienced ones. The ease of reading newer players outweighs the benefit of having a bunch of experienced town players imo.

As for why I picked Jason over the other experienced players, it was because of his relatively high post count and the fact that he already had a couple votes on him, so it'd be an easier BW to develop.

It's probably not worth me arguing the whole "experience is nothing" debate. I disagree with fuzzy on this but at this point it doesn't matter.

I'm still fine with my vote on Jason for now. Plus, his somewhat derisive, emotional reaction and use of the word "retarded" indicates his argumentation style won't work well with me, so all else equal, he's a fine lynch candidate.

@anorway: Personally speaking, Jason didn't do anything scummy (he only made one post before I voted him). I just prefer to lynch an experienced player is all, and he was a viable target.

[jsmith1234]

UNVOTE: JasonWazza
VOTE: Mutleyddmc

I assumed all this pressure on bubba was a reaction test (which I'm starting to think it isn't), and even if it is , it's run its course imo.

I think Jason is off with his read, and even though I'd like to get rid of him, it doesn't seem other people are on board, so I'll go for someone else I'd like to get rid of based on his posts so far (and his latest vote).

[jsmith1234]

He didn't "fail" imo Jason. If that was a reaction test, and you consider that failing, then the people on this site are better than I expected. Certainly possible, but I'm skeptical.

And I've played long enough to know that people don't like my reasoning for early lynches lol, so I'm not going to try to convince town that we should lynch you/Mutley because of non-scummy reasons (though Mutley's behavior could be somewhat construed as scummy), even though I think it's proper play.

[jsmith1234]

Not going to argue this with you. If you want to convince others that you're right, using ad hominem, caps lock, AtEs and overly aggressive behavior isn't an optimal way of doing so. But I know I'm not going to change your mind, so feel free to ignore the remainder of my apparently awful posts. I'll stop responding to you for now in any case.

Still think bubba's reaction leans more town over mafia. If he were a newer player, it would definitely lean town and SoM's points would be applicable. The only concern is that if bubba has been in this situation before or has witnessed it enough to know how to react in a townie fashion (which he really did imo). SoM seems to suggest he hasn't had that type of experience before, but just in case, when I have more time, I'll try to confirm this for myself.

[jsmith1234]

Pretty much, though with you there *might* be some scuminess going on.

[jsmith1234]

The ad hominem isn't helping.

[jsmith1234]

It's anti-town, not scummy. Considering historical data on this site shows town lynches scum on D1 in Open Games about 25-29% of the time, versus an average random chance of 25%, I think it's more optimal to lynch D1 with a long-term strategy in mind by taking out anti-town players or making the pool of remaining candidates easier to read. A 0-4% increased likelihood of lynching scum through "scumhunting" on a day where there really should be nothing to go off of is not as beneficial imo as removing players who will make this game harder going forward.

[jsmith1234]

I guess that would prove my point, since that would mean a townie would have been lynched. But yes I agree, if you're going to maintain that mindset, it's better if we avoid speaking to each other for now. My vote remains in the meantime.

[jsmith1234]

Thanks for the defense bubba, and yes, I think all this ad hominem, directed at me or elsewhere, is not necessary. Calling things "stupid" or "retarded" isn't helpful at all - it's just rude. I'm not trying to convince people to vote with me, and I don't expect them to. I'm simply posting my own thoughts and desired votes, and if you disagree, you can either argue calmly with me or ignore me. Either is fine at this point - it's D1 so it hardly matters for now. Hopefully this becomes less of an issue as the game progresses.

Regarding bubba's actual scuminess, his more recent behavior is unfortunately countering the earlier towniness I was reading on him. Before he seemed like he really didn't care, but now he seems more flustered and offended. I was expecting at least a couple "you're going to see how wrong you are" or something similar in his most recent posts. Regardless, I'm not sold on him at all, and at least his posts are coherent and his arguments generally clear. That brings me to the following point.

Between Jason/Mutley/fuzzy, I'd personally prefer to lynch between Mutley and fuzzy. Though I think Jason's logic is flawed and his behavior isn't conducive to rational discussion, his posts/arguments provide more information on his thoughts than the other two. The other two's posts generally come across as "you're scum...keep flailing scum...that's so scummy...etc.". Their posts don't provide a clear picture of their thought process or argument, so I can't even judge their logic, because it's hardly been presented. If bubba does end up getting lynched and flips scum, I'd sooner think one of the 3 were bussing over them all being town.

I'll keep my vote on Mutley for now, but happy to switch to fuzzy as well.

[jsmith1234]

@elle: bubba not caring if he dies isn't scummy according to his logic, because obviously by clear he meant a publicly-agreed clear (which is the common definition of "clear" in this game). While I agree with your logic that all townies, regardless of their role, should care if they get lynched, your logic that bubba is scummy based on his own argument is flawed imo.

[jsmith1234]

@elle: No prob. So does that mean after clarifying the definition of "clear", you no longer think bubba's point is contradictory to his previous arguments?

Unfortunately I can't confirm the definition of "blue"/"red" on this site, since on EpicMafia, blue means "villager". Still, he clearly said he meant town, so unless you think he's openly lying about something he previously said, in the hopes that nobody would catch something as obvious as lying about his claim, then I think it's safe to say that blue can be construed as town. And even if it isn't, I believe bubba felt that it does.

[jsmith1234]

@bubba: Well perhaps the terminology on the site has changed in the past 2 years, since I haven't played on there since then. Back when I played, blue was synonymous with the actual villager role, since their icon is a guy with a blue shirt. Regardless, I believe that you believe blue = town, so the whole "you claimed prematurely" argument doesn't seem to be applicable to you since I don't think you claimed when you said that blue line.

@Sakura: I highly doubt it's as "easy" as you're making it out to be, and I'm somewhat surprised that you would actually think two of the three scum would have revealed themselves in such a supposedly obvious manner.

[jsmith1234]

I have not said I think anyone is scum, Sakura. I am advocating a lynch to make scumhunting later on easier.

Whether or not people's behavior to me as the IC could be construed as scummy, I don't think it's worth arguing any further. I recommend others focus on other points.

[jsmith1234]

I'd personally prefer to lynch between Mutley and fuzzy

So this is not commiting yourself to a scumread?

No, not at all. I explained why I wanted to lynch those two, and it had very little to do with either of them being scummy.

[jsmith1234]

I have different views than you on how to best achieve town's win condition. So be it. Based on your attitude so far, I'm even more comfortable with my logic since I don't yet have faith in your abilities to accurately scumhunt better than the average Open Game player.

[jsmith1234]

Thanks, elle. I don't have much to say regarding your post, and I personally disagree with a couple of parts, but I appreciate the coherent and detailed explanation.

[jsmith1234]

Except that's not what you said earlier bubba, you said their reasons were to discredit the IC, not to get him dead.

I disagree. Yes he mentioned the discrediting point as one of his arguments. But he also talked about the scuminess of wanting/advocating the IC to die. First, he has argued that people who are fine with the IC dying are acting scummy. Second, he may also have argued that people who are trying to get the IC to die are acting scummy.

See:

Actually not an OMGUS. I already had said I thought he was scummy. His was an OMGUS.

I don't care how piss poor the IC is playing you NEVER say "I hope you die tonight" or "I wish we could lynch you"

You can attack his reasons in a nice manner I don't care. Saying "I wish I could lynch the fuck out of you" instead of arguing your point with him, is scummy.

Because it's idiotic, it's not town play at all. I'd rather be in a 3 way lylo with an IC then have to figure out which of the 2 people I think is scum. Saying you want him dead or policied isn't town.

You're words quite literally were "Can we lynch this guy for being stupid" That's calling for a PL.

bubba: can you give me the scum motivation behind mutley explicitly saying "I would want to lynch the IC just for being useless?"

He (And Jacob) Were attacking the IC, in an obvious attempt to discredit what he was saying.
He said no one said to lynch the IC, so I shoved his own comment in his face and he came up with that bullshit.
They also keep saying they want the IC dead, because then he can't accuse them either. It's all self preservation.

I'm not saying conf town = right Jesus.
It's scummy to not care if a clear dies, because then all his future arguments automatically don't matter.

omfg. Let me repeat myself 100 times.

1. IC is scumhunting.
2. Scum would want IC to die if he is right so that he can no longer tunnel that person.
3. Doesn't agree with you =/= useless.

I think bubba only slightly leans mafia right now, but with some condescending arguing going on, it's difficult for me to get more useful reads on him or others arguing with him.

[jsmith1234]

I would vote Bubba if he wasn't at L-1.

I fail to see how not caring about getting lynched is townie. Even if there are reasons behind it (Which I disagree with), it can be faked for WIFOM and is more an indicator of apathy, which depends on the person and not their role, than alignment.

This is soooooo false and sooooo not the reason Bubba is scum. You know, this actually looks like a very shitty excuse to bus your partner.
Scum two found! Wooo!

That's not the reason why he thinks bubba is scummy. He's just saying it's not a reason to think bubba is townie. Hence, that's why he said it's an indicator of apathy, not alignment.

[jsmith1234]

Although bubba was heavily softclaiming villager, I would have preferred that we at least got a claim from him before lynching. Unless I missed it somewhere.

[jsmith1234]

Looks like we have a roleblocker - nice job with the target last night.

Haven't read through the people who BW'd on bubba yesterday but presumably at least one is scum, and I'm leaning it being on one who wasn't as confident in their attack on him compared to the others (elle strikes me as a potential candidate).

[jsmith1234]

hi ns, hope you've read
VOTE: Saki
that was a terrible hammer

awestfie noobslipped and is almost certainly town. Hence, Saki is very likely town.

[jsmith1234]

Sakura, you're assuming Saki didn't change their mind after reading some more, or didn't see any other viable candidates at the time and felt like following consensus, or just wanted to end the day, or was just lazy, or had some other reason for doing what they did. Regardless of their reason, I don't think it outweighs the townieness from awestfie's slip, so I think you're barking up the wrong tree. Also, mafia trying to avoid suspicion is less likely to just hammer so hypocritically in the manner you're describing, unless you really think Saki made a poor move as mafia.

[jsmith1234]

Yes. And that's assuming rereading was even the reason why Saki changed their mind.

[jsmith1234]

Another question, why do you have to answer for him?

Because you're suspecting someone who has a very high likelihood of being town, which is a waste of time and effort.

[jsmith1234]

No protective role in this setup can stop a kill. Only roleblockers can.

[jsmith1234]

Actually,

you're

assuming that this supposed 'townieness from awestfie's slip' couldn't have just as easily come from an unrecruited mafia as it might have from town. Smaller odds, sure - still a possibility.

Great point, thanks. I revise my earlier point about Saki and now only think he's likely clear of being mafia goon.

I'm also inclined to agree with Jason's idea of having the roleblocker claim and outting their target. Yes there is a risk that we both have a roleblocker who whiffed their RB

and

mafia shot their traitor, but I think the likelihood of this occurring is small enough that it's worth taking the risk of having roleblocker claim. Not only do we have a high chance of lynching mafia today, but as Jason said, the roleblocker still has a chance of getting the 2nd mafia goon the next night. Plus, they could out their desired target before the day ends, so if a kill does occur the following night, we at least know their desired target is clear of being a goon.

If mafia decides to fakeclaim roleblocker, then we trade their fake target for one of them, which I think is fine.

If nobody claims, we now have more information about what the possible setup is, and can probably assume mafia lovetapped their traitor.

Regarding setupspec, not only did mafia elect to take 0 buffs last game, but they were partially basing that off of a discussion where it was argued that taking no extra roles was optimal play for town. I agree with that idea as well. So by pure likelihood, I would think we most likely only have 2 PRs. Of course we have no info to confirm that, and it's not a very high likelihood, but as more claims and night actions come out, it's worth keeping in mind.

[jsmith1234]

Btw in my earlier post I meant to say taking no extra roles was optimal play for mafia.

@Mutley: Yes, but town would also know that. Plus, mafia knowing traitor isn't such a huge benefit for them imo. Oftentimes, not knowing who your partners are as scum is beneficial since you don't have to worry about any subconscious interaction tells. If it's confirmed mafia know who their traitor is, we now have an additional potential link for future scumhunting. I agree that having roleblocker claim comes with risks, but I think the potential benefits outweigh the potential costs. It isn't a clear-cut move so I can understand if the rest of you are averse to it, but I am all in favor of it and would recommend it barring any other counterarguments that sway my opinion.

[jsmith1234]

Thanks, TGO. Naturally, if someone cc's roleblocker, please claim. : p

VOTE: fuzzybutternut

[jsmith1234]

'cause that makes me scum.

It greatly increases the probability that you're scum.

[jsmith1234]

'cause that makes me scum.

It greatly increases the probability that you're scum.

Lol no it doesn't. Look at the setup of this game. It's actually BETTER for scum to No-Kill N1, so as to avoid accidentally killing the traitor.

I disagree.

1) Sakura's reasoning seems correct.
2) It allows potential goon cop to pick up reports for free.
3) It prevents mafia from removing threatening players (ex. obvious townies, town leaders, etc.).
4) Even if your reasoning is technically correct, this is probably something mafia wouldn't do, so probability still suggests you're more likely to be mafia than not.

[jsmith1234]

Fuzzy is at L-2.

[jsmith1234]

Nobody else vote please until we get everyone's opinions.

UNVOTE: fuzzybutternut

We still haven't heard from some players, and I'm curious to hear their thoughts on the matter.

[jsmith1234]

Err, sorry, I meant nobody else vote fuzzy please. (not sure how to p-edit, sorry)

[jsmith1234]

Makes perfect sense, thanks Sakura.

[jsmith1234]

Jsmith

Why have I not played with you before

Because everyone else I play with is like "lolendthedayfast"

Thanks notscience, and yeah I'm glad we did hold off on a quicklynch given the new info we might be dealing with now.

I'd prefer SoM at least claim "PR" rather than softclaim it, as it gives mafia a potential out if we were to believe SoM and lynch TGO, only to find out TGO was legit and SoM claims she had a less convincing reason for doubting TGO. If TGO really is mafia, then his partner already knows SoM is very likely to be a PR, so I feel like town gets more benefit from SoM hardclaiming "PR" than does mafia.

[jsmith1234]

Sorry, didn't realize I have to actually read the message to accept the prod. Best of luck with the rest of the game.