Open 518 LotteryLand (EndGame)

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Mutley, how do you know for sure the vig shot jason?

Noctan, who did you target last night?

And mutley, can I just say you've dug up a TON of wifom on what first and second would take. First in draft taking jailkeeper happens a LOT, even with town first. It just looks cooler than doctor/roleblocker because it's both at once! Also, cop slot really isn't that good for scum, unless they can reasonably not claim it, which you can't at first or second pick. And doctor just rarely ever happens.

And I know this is a tangent, but what the hell is wrong with neighbourizer? If you hit the cop somehow, you are suddenly guaranteed to keep that going. And it also automatically confirms the role by using it. Like, the only way it's worse than fruit vendor is if you hit scum. And it's a fairly big game, should be fairly easy to have one correct town-read per day.

Ew. A lot of my number theory got thrown off by the redraft.

PEdit: Oh. Oh great.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

But a scum with the cop slot in the top 2 WILL have to claim it. And late in the game yay for a scum that has to claim cop results with potential roleblockers, jailkeepers, trackers, watchers and PoE off his results. Anyway, this is theory. But, say, is the jailkeeper more suspect because the other guy didn't take cop? Or is the vig more suspect because the other guy didn't take cop? And town, at the top is painting a massive target on themselves if scum are pr focusing.

Anyway, my first game in this setup had cop at around #8. Although tbh scum was draft #1 and #2 that game.

I think we should get a vig claim.

The problem with your argument on the vigs is if you're town and the scum had a vig you're the easy choice to shoot tbh. Or just hang on to the vig. A town kill + townpoints is nice. The problem with your argument on the scum picks is it's full of wifom, and it's also "Scum are stupid" and "Different is scum." Those two statements are the bane of scumhunting.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I've no idea on noctan. His claim looks a little fishy today, but on the other hand it's an essentially VT claim day 1. Maybe he was hopping on the bandwagon of claims, but eh, I don't really see any of them as scum. I think it's unlikely noctan is scum, especially based off the claims.

Yeah, those are good reasons why not to use the nightkill on you. A vig is a different matter, because you're probably claiming it, especially as 1 of the top 2 in the draft, and you're a nice pro-town vig, thus easy townpoints for scum. It doesn't implicate any scum because it's a claimed vig.

Wait, the vig is def-scum and scum would have killed one of the top 2? Are you playing the same game as the rest of us?

Can I point out that the top 2 roles are, as the whole game knows because of you, vig, which is not that big a threat to scum given the day 1 we had, and jailkeeper, which is not that big a threat when weighed against cop, and a potential mislynch.

Hmm, if we lynch any goons noctan or the vig is town because i see no reason to screw around and not target someone still alive if there's already someone with the kill.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

I just don't know.

I think he probably lied, just because there's been no counterclaim of fruit vendor.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

VOTE: bert

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

^ Srs vote btw.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Eh, you're going off gut so mine's just a massive overreaction, but whatever.

I just really don't agree with your reasons for voting bauss.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

...

Mutley stop being scum or dumb, whichever you are.

You remember open 510, right? Bauss reminds me of my play there. Btw, seeming wifom defences are very commonly town because nobody bothers to come up with one to convince you of anything because it just plainly doesn't work, however, town can concoct stuff that looks like a wifom defence but isn't intended as one, though.

Doesn't even look like there's any wifom. I'm voting you until you stop being an idiot about this.

UNVOTE: bert
VOTE: mutleyddmc

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Mutley, can i point out that there are 12 people below the top 2, 9 of them town if the top 2 are town? I would be highly surprised if nobody picked cop at all, because there's always the teeny tiny chance this game happens, and a cop in the lower half is way more valuable than a cop in the upper half.

At least, it was before you went and messed it up by massclaiming in the top half.

Anyway, meta arguments are dependent on how deep the meta is. If it's just "He claimed scum he only does this as town" it's worthless. If it's "He's doing X, which he does as town and doesn't do as scum," it's okay. Most don't go anywhere near deep enough - "He did X as scum, he's scum," without any town is worthless.

Btw, who was scum in 516?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Eh, I guess I'll go with karnage

UNVOTE: mutleyddmc
VOTE: Mrbartlet

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

My votes on them were for doing stuff I disagreed with / thought scummy at first glance, not for scumminess. I'm still pretty much in rvs.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Mutley's argument is "If I was town in X situation, I would do Y, if I was scum in X situation I would also do Y, but because the people who are actually in X position didn't do Y they're scum."

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Well yeah, but to everyone not picking that it's the same thing.

Why scum and not town?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Darger, depends, but in my mind we're still in day 1.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Umm, this is my aggressive day 1 start. Usually I'm going off either more info day 2, or I'm in lurkadurk mode until like the pre-lylo day.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Okay, did Likeabauss even know saki was gonna flip town? Looks like he just thought saki wasn't scummy on day 1. There's a bit of claiming he knew the towniness AFTER the fact, but still.

I just don't think the kill on sakura is that scummy, unless you can also go with everything mutley has done as scummy.

Mutley, stop tunneling, seriously. Everything you're doing smacks of confirmation bias.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

town likeabauss thought you're 2 dum 4 scum.

Mutley, why do you think he's scum?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Mutley, lets just cut the crap and get down to why you think he's scum.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

There's a bunch of arguments on why we should think he's scum, but nothing on why you think he's scum, apart from ages and ages ago.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

It's troll logic. They're both bad plays that don't help town.

And I'm just messing with my meta by posting a lot. The fact you don't think it's making sense is probably why my meta's so lurky in the first place.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Bert. Because he's holding a gun to my head.

Um... given how much scumminess I have on people I'd have to say derivan... but ummm, shouldn't he be replaced by now?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Woah first mass prods now mass replaces.

I don't have anything to say on bartlet getting lynched, really.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

We need a massclaim today I think.

If we mislynch today we end up in 3/4, possibly even 3/3 and loss if scum have the n3 vig.

Wait, MODKILLING? NOOOO. Um, can we try to find a replacement?

We've lost, lessee, one prs, one is used up and four vts. Scum are either REALLY unlucky or hoarding all the good roles to themselves. Either way, massclaim is what we need.

Also, if we massclaim we start with everyone claiming vt or pr and THEN after everyone does that you claim your actual role and maybe actions.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Aw great a black and whiter. Neither bauss or mutley are likely to be scum, and getting our minds off them is a good idea.

Anyway, about massclaim, scum probably knows where the rest of the roles are by sheer process of elimination, or scum has them. And it's lylo tomorrow. When do we claim if not now? Tomorrow makes fakeclaims a lot deadlier.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Why not say why automatically?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Um, darger, that's a bit too full. Everyone else don't claim what you bid on, only whether you got it or not.

I got VT btw.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Scum just don't care about prs, obviously.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Beginner, why address noctan and sakura?

The whole one or the other is lovely for scum, we lynch one and oopsie, well, it must be the other!

This post was the post that made me think likea is scum.
Note the following: likea has been trying to push mutley (easy lynch?) to death. Likea tells mutley what he

should

be doing as town. Funny thing is, Likea fails to do the very same prior to this post. Hypocritical much? Several pages later (maybe to not look like a hypocrite.. too late lol) likea does exactly what he says mut should be doing. If likea truly believed what he was saying here, he would have been implementing it already prior to stating it. As it stands, there are 7 entire pages of his not doing what he is telling mut to do.

About this, mutley has way more posts and time than bauss. There aren't 7 pages of him not doing this, because he wasn't there for the first 4.

Beginner seems to accept mutley-town way too easily and is still questioning people who also go for it.

VOTE: beginner

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Also, we should finish the massclaim. Ummm.

Getting rid of the argument. Keep claiming. Um. I think jennifer's the only one not to claim pr/vt?

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

To clarify, I censored stuff that's not to do with massclaim after writing that post.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

We've yet to jennifer, and lots of role-specifics aren't out. Those are kinda the main point to massclaiming really.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Beginner complaining about discrediting and trying to make someone look scummy and doing it himself lol. VERY negative wording, so yeah...

About me/mit being scum if bauss is, say it now. If it's good, it'll strengthen your case. If it's bad, you've at least said what you think. You also seem to consider frog as scum, so who is your main scumspects?

Also LOL at "hey you said it's null because it makes sense as town well i'm gonna say it makes sense as mafia so it's null." Reduce redundancy!

Anyway, do we have a n3 vig? I say we just no-lynch now. Or, maybe scum have it. Ew. If they do we need to lynch scum now. If they don't then lynching town loses... Ummm, finish the massclaim. We're in MyLo, so we just finish it.

N3 vig needs to claim, because knowing we have it on a town person allows us to no-lynch.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

@Frog:
There are three issues

you are fabricating in your senile attempt to negate my case

, and I will respond to each:
First, Frog, I've also seen town declare knowledge of alignment. You're ignoring the entire context in which Bauss touts his town-read on Saki. It is entirely weak and barely, if at all, justifiable. If anything, Mutley's HoS on Saki was actually much more likely, believable and presentable than Bauss's town-read. Again, Bauss's behavior does not compute unless he were mafia. It explains his behavior perfectly. You're suffering a case of refutation-bias.
Second, true, hypocrisy is not equivalent to scum. Again, you're taking individual points out of context. You're failing to ask the following questions:
What does it mean that Bauss was being a hypocrite in his reprimanding Mutley?
Frog, Bauss's being hypocritical means he didn't truly believe what he was saying.
What was his motive then?
Let us reexamine the post:
P1:The motive that is immediately apparent in that post against Mut is to portray Mut in a scummy light.
P2: The content by which Bauss was illustrating his intent, in light of his hypocrisy, is most likely contrived/fake.
P3: Bauss was using contrived/fake content to paint Mut in scumminess.
P4: Only scum use fake/contrived reasoning to make other people look scummy
C: Bauss is scum.

As for your comparing my posts (Post #2 = Post #4 and is relative to ppost #3).. I can't derive anything tangible here.. it's an utter mess.
As for the Mitillos/siv could possibly be scum if Bauss flips scum.. I'm not going to explain until the flip occurs.

You're seriously going to discredit me based on this one post?

Frog, what are your reads?

Ummm, okay? The bolded does look like discrediting frog and making him look scummy.

@frog: Why exactly would you be going after beginner? Cluttering the thread isn't alignment indicative and he is generating content, by going through the thread and making reads, i.e. scumhunting. My read on him is town, so am I missing something, or are you just too annoyed by the large number of consecutive posts?

Or is he just scum trying to place another player in a negative light (leads to making them look scummy)?

Right, this is really blatant.

Not discrediting, lol.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Wait, is don johnson replacing jennifer? It's just there's the guy called who...

It was 5 in the morning! But fixed anyways

.

Beginner, you're scum, spreading mud on everyone.

Don, we were massclaiming and you're the only one not to have claimed yet.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yeah shots on inactives implies comfy scum. No idea who that actually means, though.

Ohey, useless crappy NK self-meta wifom defence of a partnership - if bauss was scum with me I'd have told him to shoot mutley on night 2 and just wifom away the suspicion.

Eh, I think it's probably beginner/mutley as 2 scum. Dunno who the last one is. Doesn't strike me as any active, so don/darger?

DON CLAIM IN YOUR NEXT POST

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Unless you're scum.

Which I kinda doubt.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Eh, bauss could be scum.

VOTE: likeabauss

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Actually, the day before mylo/lylo is the best time to claim, as it reduces the risk of scum outright counterclaiming.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

It's gg, unless don has 1-shot redirector, and guesses right of the scum who kills and aims them at another scum.

So yeah, 2/3 shot to win even if he does have it (lol noway), and guesses who the last scum is (yeah right) definitely worth it.

Kinda sucks that we win because bert got modkilled though.

Also I like that even though I can't stop myself being really obvscum, I can stop people from correctly identifying my partners for long enough.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

As I said, I wasn't even trying to look town on day 3, I just wanted bauss looking scummy. I got a little scared when it seemed like you'd go for me instead lol.

The fact there was no cop is really bad for town, and kinda rendered the whole "doctor + roleblocker" idea obsolete. Like, even a scum cop/redirector is good for town.

The modkill on bert screwed town so hard. They were already fairly screwed with no cop though.

Umm, watcher should have been used when jennifer got it I think, unless you say "kill is also a roleblock."

More to come later.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

Yup.

That was enough.

Wait what happened to my draft post.

Ummm, I pointed out that all my stuff on how the draft generally works got borked by the redraft. The other thing is that halfway through day 2 I was thinking what would be an okay alternative telland came up with those who stayed the same number as town . The actual results of that tell is exactly the opposite of what happened.

[Siveure DtTrikyp]

The draft works like that. The only person you can have any guarantees about is the first person. Everyone else can fail to get a pr, or get a pr way better than you'd expect from that position.