Open 511: Diffusion of Power: (Mod Abandoned)


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Post Post #508 (isolation #0) » Wed Aug 07, 2013 4:12 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Hello, people.

I will slowly read over the game (or at least pretend to) and hopefully be caught up some time soon.

In the mean time, if someone who isn't scum would be kind enough to tell me who is scum and why so that I can sheep them, that'd be great.

Is my slot obvtown or do I need to do some work to convince people of this?
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Post Post #514 (isolation #1) » Wed Aug 07, 2013 4:18 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

zzzx wrote:i think your slot did nothing at all
That doesn't really answer my question. Am I to assume you have a completely null read on me, then?

Who do you not have a null read on
and why
?

Feel free to throw in any town reads along with your scum reads, if you have any, as long as you have some reason.
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Post Post #520 (isolation #2) » Wed Aug 07, 2013 4:26 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

dcl wrote:Saki is scum (for his push and interactions with venrob), you read through should make that obvious
Interesting. I just noticed that my vote is on Saki, and yours is not. Considering no new information from Saki in the last 30 or so posts (unless I missed something), why is your vote on zzzx and not Saki?

---

@zzzx,

Do you have any town reads? And is there any particular reason you're not voting for anybody?
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Post Post #532 (isolation #3) » Wed Aug 07, 2013 8:56 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

No it isn't. But feel free to explain why you think it is.

unvote

vote N64Lord


tbh, I think pretty much all of the main wagons are crap. Even apart from the fact that I have town reads of varying strength on each of Saki, DC and ZZZX, the reasons for them being scum are borderline pathetic.

I would like to hear some opinions on N64Lord, TaskMaster, oriole, TMT and Baezu.

It would not surprise me in the least if all of the scum is in that group.

As for why I'm voting N64Lord, it's because all of his posts seem essentially empty. There's commentary on different things here and there, but no
actual
scum hunting that I've seen. The few reads he's actually given are pretty shallow.

I suspect TaskMaster for much the same reason. Some commentary here and there, very little in the way of actual scum hunting.

The other three I'm kind of meh about. Nothing they've written has felt particularly town to me. Nothing amazingly scummy, either.

Anyway, I'll be back later, feel free to ask me any questions, or tell me what you think of any of those five. I'm not interested in a lynch on anyone outside that group today.
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Post Post #533 (isolation #4) » Wed Aug 07, 2013 9:03 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

@Mod,

What timezone are you? Or can you do a countdown timer for the deadline?
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Post Post #535 (isolation #5) » Wed Aug 07, 2013 11:58 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

What do you think of them?
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Post Post #537 (isolation #6) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 12:07 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

What would I have to say about them? They were town, I am town.

Is there something I'm missing here?

Thoughts on N64Lord, TaskMaster, oriole, TMT and Baezu while you're around?
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Post Post #540 (isolation #7) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 1:47 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

No, like I said, even apart from the fact that I have town reads on each of them, the reasons for people thinking they're scum are pathetic. The town reads come mostly from picking up different nuances in their posts, and the way in which they've been expressing their reads. When I can be bothered, I'll go back through their ISOs and give some examples, but I'm about to head to sleep to get up for TI3 games tomorrow morning.

In the mean time, please feel free to tell me why you think I'm wrong, and elaborate on what horribly scummy things you think any of them have done. I'm interested because as far as I can tell your reason for thinking Saki is scummy is that she pushed for Venrob's lynch, and your reason for thinking DCL is scummy is because your scum suspect pointed out that DCL is "opportunistic".

And what about my read on you is "ironic"? All you've really done is active lurk the entire game, and this last post from you is no different. There is no real content in it, it's essentially an empty post.
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Post Post #564 (isolation #8) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:21 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Titus wrote:DCL wondering what the Saki trap is and Noctan's asking for my reads upon entry andnot wanting that to get lost in other chatter both seem protown.
Do you imagine that as scum they would not ask these questions? Are these the only reasons for them being your "most protown" reads?
Titus wrote:Zzx seems like a good scum read. He's near the point where I would call his defense failing.
Elaborate, please.


---

@oriole,

Hello. Although I think your vote on Paschendale was one of the only votes in this game that had any reasonable justification (although I'm not sold on this and am interested in hearing your opinion on his justification of the vote in #420), I don't like that you appear to just be coasting at the moment. Care to give some updated reads? Or, at the very least, expand on why you think Paschendale is the best lynch today.


---
Baezu wrote:This post shows that you essentially want to make no effort to read the game, make your own reads, participate or scumhunt. You want the rest of us to do it for you. A person with a town PM would have come in and given some reads or at least read through the thread. This is an anti-town post.
I don't think you quite understand what "scummy" means. Something is scummy if it makes more sense for scum to do than town. For example, my opinion is that the active lurking taking place in this thread (primarily by the five people I listed, one of which is you, and you're only solidifying this with your recent posts) is scummy, because it's an easy way for scum to coast while appearing to provide content.

My first post isn't an example of something that makes more sense coming from scum than town. It doesn't benefit me in any way as scum or town, so you can consider it an alignment-neutral post that I would have done regardless of my role PM, no?

All this said, how about you comment on anything else I've been saying, or perhaps give some opinions on any of the players I mentioned I'd be willing to lynch (N64Lord and TaskMaster in particular).
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Post Post #565 (isolation #9) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:25 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Also, I just want to hear general opinions from everyone on N64Lord and TaskMaster.

Anyway, I'll go through ZZZX/DCL/Saki ISOs in a bit and explain why I think these lynches are bad today.

I'd prefer policy lynching any of the people providing zero content over them.
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Post Post #566 (isolation #10) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:52 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

re: ZZZX

Going back over his ISO, I don't feel as strongly about him being town. Posts like #108 (the first ZZZX post that I got minor town vibes from - mostly gut feeling here, nothing amazingly town about it though), #403 (gave me gut town vibes mostly because it felt like an odd question for ZZZX to ask as scum) and #501 (the way he defended himself here, particularly the last line, felt town) were a major part of the reason I felt he was town when I read through the game, but upon rereading them I don't get the same strong town feeling I did the first time. And I noticed that he completely backtracked on one of his only "learning town" reads from #326 (DCL) without any real justification or reasoning at all.

I want to see ZZZX justify his read on DCL (and mnem for that matter, since mnem is apparently another of his 'main targets').

On to DCL ISO next.
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Post Post #580 (isolation #11) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 8:59 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

paschendale wrote:ZZZ's reaction to scrutiny definitely looked like panic. Definitely on the scummy side.
Well, no, I think that's wrong, but there are certainly other problems with his play so far (e.g. the issue I mentioned in #566 with him doing a 180 on one of his two "leaning town" reads for no given reason).

Regardless, "panic" isn't
actually
scummy. It's more of a playstyle thing. Town and scum panic. Why did you think it was "on the scummy side"?


---
NoctanNights wrote:Honestly, I was torn between DCL and ZZX.
Really? Give reasons for both, please.

In #430 you mentioned that you were null on ZZZX, and that he hadn't done anything overly scummy. When did this change, seeing as you haven't mentioned him at all since then?


---
ZZZX wrote:ALSO good news, Well Now I am free for this game for some reasons
Great, you can start by posting content. You should give some of your current reads and some reasons for them, to start with, then think about responding to the points that have been brought up about you.
ZZZX wrote:this is a legimet playstyle
Consider changing your playstyle then, because if you're town, your play has been far from optimal.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #12) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 9:07 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

votecount wrote:DCLXVI - 4 (Taskmaster, Paschendale, N64Lord, Saki)
I would like to see each of the people on it give some reasons for thinking DCL is the best lynch today.

Also, I'd like everyone in the game to chime in with their thoughts on N64Lord and Taskmaster
. Writing in blue because I've asked several times only to be ignored each time.

If it comes down to a choice between ZZZX and DCL, I'll be voting for ZZZX, but I want people to consider at least TaskMaster, if not N64Lord.
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Post Post #584 (isolation #13) » Thu Aug 08, 2013 11:04 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

ZZZX wrote:before i write all my thoughts why is everyone who is voting me doing so?
Read the game. I don't agree with all the reasons, but they've been given. Start with #566-#569, #503 and #497.
saki wrote:Don't care about N64, conflicted about Taskmaster (as I've said earlier).
Why is DCL scum?
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Post Post #586 (isolation #14) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:06 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Actually, #503 isn't
really
an OMGUS. He points out the fact that you saying you'll self-vote is anti-town and then goes on to point out the inconsistency between you your vote on him and you saying that you don't have a scum read on any of the posters with few posts. The latter point is legitimate, and you've yet to substantiate why you mnem is one of your "main targets", so perhaps get on that soon...

In #497, the key line is this:
DCL wrote:I think you are lazy scum who opportunistically jumped on my wagon with an incredibly shitty reason who when called out on it jumped off to distance himself from the wagon.
He didn't vote you because you jumped on his wagon, he voted you because of the way in which you did it (then later jumped off).

And yes, #566 is mostly about why I thought you were town, but the key thing here is that two people then voted you shortly afterwards (#568, #569) with the 180 on your DCL being part of the reason for their votes.

...

So why did you change your mind on DCL? Stating "DCL OMGUS" is not only a bad reason, but also false because it couldn't have been why you changed your mind. And what about his "bad" way of playing makes him scum?

Also, considering you said you now have more time for this game, you're not doing much.
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Post Post #589 (isolation #15) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:43 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

ZZZX wrote:I didnt change my mind of him, i didnt want to put him at L1 with 5 days remaining
I mean why did you say you were leaning town on DCL in #326 (he was one of your only two leaning town reads) and then later backtrack on this read for no good reason?

I'm not saying anything about you removing your vote from him... I'm asking why you even voted him in the first place.

Also, I don't agree with what you just said about mnem but I'll wait for you to elaborate on things before I say anything about it.
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Post Post #591 (isolation #16) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:13 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

OK, that's a start.

Why don't you go into a little more detail about which of the reasons you agreed with and why. Then perhaps start giving your thoughts on other players.
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Post Post #593 (isolation #17) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 4:12 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

paschendale wrote:Muffin, why are you trying so hard to help him dig his way out of this hole? No townread this early in the game can be that strong.
I'm not completely sold on him being scum right now. I'm entertaining the possibility that he is bad town. And even if he is scum, the more content I get from him, the better.
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Post Post #599 (isolation #18) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 9:16 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

#503 was mnem, you were #497
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Post Post #607 (isolation #19) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:36 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I would like to remind the people who are still active lurking that we have less than 2 days til the deadline. Get your shit together. If you're town, this is awful play. Especially any hydras who are most likely scum and still coasting, though I shall give no names.
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Post Post #608 (isolation #20) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:41 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

ZZZX
oriole
N64Lord
Taskmaster

These four people in particular, I want essays that would make the greatest writers in history to shame in your next posts.

Stop saying you'll catch up, and start posting shit that matters.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #21) » Fri Aug 09, 2013 10:42 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

That would put*

Anyway, I'll jump on the ZZZX wagon in the next 24 hours if I don't see anything from him, but it's sad that there are so many people coasting so close to the deadline.
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Post Post #613 (isolation #22) » Sat Aug 10, 2013 2:10 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

I want to get my thoughts on the term "scum hunting" out in the open, even though it only partially relates to the game at hand, just because I'm sick and tired of people misusing the word.

Scum hunting isn't just asking questions, and just because a person is asking questions, doesn't mean they're scum hunting. There are a variety of ways to hunt scum, and asking questions is one of those ways, but only if a person is asking the right questions; putting pressure on other players in the game by forcing them to give opinions on other players, or actions of those players, etc, is a good example of scum hunting by asking questions, but asking generic questions that a person can easily answer as either alignment is not scum hunting. And you don't even need to ask questions to scum hunt a lot of the time, because scum hunting is more about giving your reads and pressuring them in different ways (voting someone, rallying support for their lynch, giving your reads, explaining how or why they change over the course of time, etc are all technically scum hunting).

The reason I don't consider merely asking questions scum hunting is because it's easy to do as either alignment and takes no effort whatsoever. On the other hand, something as simple as giving reads and explaining those reads when asked is scum hunting, because it allows other players in the game to get a better read on you and a better idea of which lynches you'd support, if nothing else. This is how you catch scum. By noting inconsistencies in their reads, or the reasons for their reads, so even if a person isn't actively asking lots of questions and trying to extract information out of someone, I still consider them to be actively participating in scum hunting if they are consistently giving their reads and explaining them when asked.

I will say now that maybe... 3 or 4 players in the game have been legitimately scum hunting (or appear to be scum hunting), and the rest have been coasting by with little input. Which is the biggest fucking disappointment about this D1 so far, because I know not all of the coasting players can be scum.

The tl;dr of all this is you don't need to ask questions or whatever to be considered scum hunting, and all I've asked of anyone in this game is their reads and reasons for those reads.

Anyway, that was my rant about the term "scum hunting" and I'm sick of it being misused to imply that anyone who asks questions is scum hunting. I saw it misused a couple times earlier in this thread when I was catching up and it frustrates me.
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Post Post #614 (isolation #23) » Sat Aug 10, 2013 2:12 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

(Basically I'm saying I don't give a shit what you've done so far in the game, start giving your reads and some explanations for them. If you're town, you should want to not be lynched, and giving up and AtEing like you're currently doing is not helping.)
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Post Post #631 (isolation #24) » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:09 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I don't see Saki as scum if ZZZX flips town - or at least it's not very likely. On the other hand, it wouldn't surprise me if there's scum among the people currently berating Saki for the hammer.

In the event ZZZX is actually town and I die N1, I hope the people alive actually think on D2.
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Post Post #632 (isolation #25) » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:15 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

And assuming ZZZX does flip town, I don't think it's all that easy to distinguish town from scum on this one, because he was quite literally begging to be lynched. But assuming I'm alive tomorrow, I'll revisit it then.

Also completely irrelevant now that he's been hammered, but I find it strange that ZZZX didn't mention what night he is supposedly a cop on.
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Post Post #637 (isolation #26) » Sat Aug 10, 2013 10:03 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I think you're misunderstanding a critical point of the game. If everyone said "don't lynch me, I can do great things down the line if you just trust that I'm town!" then how would the game progress?

Perhaps improve your gameplay and contributions on D1. Mafia isn't just about being right about who is and isn't scum, it's about making it easier for other people to read you as town, while pushing for the lynches of who you think is scum. And, quite frankly, you did neither this game (if I am right in assuming that you believe Saki and mnem are the two scum on your wagon... Which makes it rather odd that you felt DCL was scum).

Even if your reads "aren't accurate" D1, the least you can do is give people whatever feelings you happen to have about different players, and explain why you feel that way when asked - which you didn't do in this game.

So no, even if you are town, it's not the town's fault you got lynched. It's your fault. And regardless of whether you're town or scum, think about why you got lynched D1, and try not to do it in your next game.
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Post Post #639 (isolation #27) » Sat Aug 10, 2013 11:48 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Every game that isn't bastard is a normal mafia game.

And nobody cares how many scum you "caught" in a single previous game.

I'm not talking about giving "random" reads, but you clearly had
some
reads in this game, and you were unwilling to elaborate on any of them prior to being lynched, even though this is pretty much all I asked of you about 10 times.

I was giving you some advice; you can choose to ignore it if you want, and continue playing like this and wondering why anyone would want to lynch you early in the game, or you can think about ways to improve your game so it doesn't happen next time. It's up to you.
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Post Post #658 (isolation #28) » Wed Aug 14, 2013 7:02 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I don't think Saki's hammer in any way points to Saki being scum - in fact, I think the opposite. But Saki can go ahead and explain it anyway.

Baezu could be scum, but I don't think his vote on ZZZX was any better or worse than any of the other votes, so I'm kind of meh on that for a reason.

I think a TaskMaster lynch is good here.

Will reread the end of D1 later and sort some thoughts.

Vote: TaskMaster
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Post Post #661 (isolation #29) » Wed Aug 14, 2013 8:42 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

What are your thoughts on N64Lord and Noctan, TaskMaster?

And how many scum do you think were on the ZZZX wagon?

Unvote


I need to read stuff.
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Post Post #666 (isolation #30) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 3:27 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Saki isn't scum, Titus.

#663 was a town post anyway, so I don't know why that would prevent you from unvoting.
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Post Post #668 (isolation #31) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 5:30 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Paschendale,

Who do you currently suspect outside of Baezu?

I'm currently working off the assumption, at least for today, that TaskMaster and oriole are both town, and my town read on Saki is still as strong as it was yesterday. I also recall thinking you were likely town yesterday.

So the group of people that I'll be most closely looking at today is

TMTOLBTWNTOF
Baezu
N64Lord
mnemonicdevice
Titus
NoctanNights

I'm considering striking N64Lord off my list today because 651 looked town and I am also considering striking mnem off my list today because I had a vague townread on him yesterday.

Thoughts on this?
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Post Post #670 (isolation #32) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 6:10 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

I'm inclined to believe TaskMaster's claim for now partially because he outright said he is "_the_" N1 cop. I actually think he believes you can't have multiple N1 cops.
paschen wrote:I'm not sure about Mnemonic. Why do you suspect him?
I don't, currently. I said I had a vague townread on him yesterday, so I was striking him off the list for now.

So really, the list I'm looking at lynching from today is:

TMTOLBTWNTOF
Baezu
Titus
NoctanNights

I can't really say anything more at the moment because I want to go back and read the end of D1 and some ISOs.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #33) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 8:54 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

If... you were going to hammer ZZZX anyway... then why did you get so worked up about Saki doing it?

And why would you even claim intent in a game where claims are irrelevant so it's either hammer or don't hammer?
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Post Post #675 (isolation #34) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:11 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Do you think he's likely to do the same thing as scum twice?
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Post Post #676 (isolation #35) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:12 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

(and in the event he's actually town and his two scum reads flipped town, what would you expect him to say instead?)
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Post Post #679 (isolation #36) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:19 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

OK. This isn't really game-relevant at the moment, but there is no reason to claim intent in this game, imo. You either think the wagon is on scum or you don't. Claims shouldn't matter (or, at least, I sure as fuck don't care about them).

So I don't really have an issue with Saki's hammer. You're still voting Saki, so obviously you think differently. What about Saki's explanation did you not like and why?
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Post Post #681 (isolation #37) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:28 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

I know what you're saying, but you're wrong.
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Post Post #682 (isolation #38) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:28 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #692 (isolation #39) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:51 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

@noctan,

(1) It's common in other mafia games because other mafia games
usually
require claims for more information. In this game, that's not the case. Consider this a special game where claims aren't important. You can still claim intent to hammer if you'd like, but it's not necessary. That said, if people are completely contradicting their earlier reads and hammering people they think are town, then you'd have something to be suspicious of but that's not the case here...
(2) That doesn't make any sense. Please try to use logic to explain your thought process here. Venrob-scum claims day vig in a setup where it's known that there's no dayvig and this makes him scum because........ magical reasons? What do you think of my play so far, or is that irrelevant in your read? Who else do you think is scum? Give me two other names.


@oriole,

The "scum aren't on the wagon" bit actually made me think town. I can see Saki possibly saying that as scum, but the way in which it was said made me think town (the justification for it makes sense, and I didn't sense any ulterior motive).

I don't really see why people are reading Saki as scum, and I imagine this is another case similar to ZZZX and DCL.


@Titus,

OK, but that's just a difference of opinion between you and Saki. Why do you think this makes Saki scum?


@mnem,

Who do you think is scum if Saki is town?
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Post Post #694 (isolation #40) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:54 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

You're forgetting Noctan who wasn't voting, but I also think you're wrong in assuming that there were 2 scum off the wagon.
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Post Post #697 (isolation #41) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:57 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

saki wrote:I missed noctan.
Don't think he's scum, either, though.
Why? I'm having a hard time distinguishing between terrible town logic and scum logic in Noctan's posts
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Post Post #698 (isolation #42) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:59 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Also I agree that post by mnem is bad, but again, I'm having trouble distinguishing between terrible town logic and scum logic here.

And I thought mnem looked town D1 but I may go back and reread him later.
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Post Post #701 (isolation #43) » Thu Aug 15, 2013 10:16 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

*shrug*

It was bad, but really no worse than any of the other votes on you today.

I'm going to get food, watch some stuff, and then start reading some ISOs in this game.
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Post Post #706 (isolation #44) » Fri Aug 16, 2013 2:24 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

I wasn't talking about that when I mentioned terrible logic, but I do think your vote on Saki is bad.

What I was referring to was you suggesting that you thought Venrob was scummy because he claimed day vig.

That's either terrible town logic or scum logic.

Which is why I asked you to explain it.

And you still haven't.
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Post Post #720 (isolation #45) » Sat Aug 17, 2013 1:38 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

NN wrote:it's a gut feeling.
Based on what? My posts? Predecessors? Point me to posts that gave you this gut feeling if you can't describe it.
Task wrote:I skimmed his town games, did not once find a similar occurence.
I'm not really asking about whether he
has
done it as town, but why this makes him scum in this game, just because he did it once before as scum.

For example (and this is what I wanted you to clarify in my : would you have expected something different from him as town and legitimately found out he was wrong about both his scum reads?

Yes, he's done it as scum, I can see that, but that's not my issue here.

Regardless, when I do go over ISOs, I'll take an extra close look over Paschendale for you and tell you what I find.

Hopefully I'll get to this later, but if I don't, I'll make it a priority when I wake up tomorrow.
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Post Post #722 (isolation #46) » Sat Aug 17, 2013 2:23 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

I read Venrob/RW in ISO before asking to replace into this game.

I did this because I wanted a nice, relaxing open game
as town
.

Yes, I thought they were town before asking to replace in.

So asking me to find the scummy stuff you see in their ISOs doesn't make sense to me. Thus I asked you to point me to it.
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Post Post #765 (isolation #47) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 12:22 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Been lazy. Reading ISOs now.
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Post Post #766 (isolation #48) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 1:03 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I'm having real trouble getting reads on the players in this game.

I think Baezu could be scum, I don't know what to think of mnem really but I have a gut town read on him and N64Lord is prob town.

Vote: Baezu


Onwards I go.
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Post Post #769 (isolation #49) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 1:38 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Apparently people still don't realise how the mechanics of this game works.

This game could potentially have 6 N1 cops (although the chances of this are extremely low).

I
do
think TaskMaster's claim looks town (because it seems he thought he was
the
N1 cop, rather than a N1 cop) but there is no reason that there couldn't be 0 N1 cops, either.
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Post Post #771 (isolation #50) » Mon Aug 19, 2013 1:57 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

titus wrote:I highly doubt there are 0 N1 cops.
The chances are roughly 1 in 3. (40.96% chance with 4 cops, 32.768% with 5 cops, 26.2144% with 6 cops, altogether 33.314% chance)
titus wrote:Popcorn night claims.
No. I considered this, but it's a bad idea. Gives scum too much information, and gives town none. It also allows scum to work out nights where there is only one PR activated.
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Post Post #796 (isolation #51) » Wed Aug 21, 2013 1:08 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I fell asleep last night, woke up to find my computer off, and because I'd been doing all my ISO work in notepad, it's gone. Lesson learned.

Starting from scratch, here are my thoughts on the most important parts of Baezu's ISO.

- is one of the most interesting sequences of posts I've ever seen and I can't make any sense of it from a town perspective.
<- "How am I supposed to get reads when it's just 3 townies ranting back and forth" is a weird thing to say, particularly calling all three of them townies (I believe this was referring to Saki, DCL and TaskMaster)
- is another sequence of posts similar to the earlier 145-153 where I simply can't understand the thought process from a town perspective.
And then track the progression of her read on ZZZX: In she says she thinks ZZZX is town and mnemonic's attack on ZZZX was scummy, in ZZZX is null-scum (citing ZZZX's post as part of the reason for this), in she explains that over the course of two days between 424 and 454 that ZZZX went from a town read to null-scum purely for a drop in activity which finally results in where Baezu votes ZZZX. The only really weird thing about this sequence is the change from town->null-scum for no good reason... But then there's , which just looks extremely fake.

So yeah, these are basically the reasons I think Baezu is very likely scum. The thought processes and actions don't look town.

Going to finish doing ISOs today and get my thoughts out on everyone else but Baezu is probably my first choice for a lynch today.
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Post Post #806 (isolation #52) » Thu Aug 22, 2013 8:25 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

baezu wrote:As town, in those games I tend to do exactly what you're describing I'm doing here. I have no solid leads so I jump around, evaluate and re-evaluate.
I seriously doubt you do this as town, seeing as my biggest issues with you aren't you "jumping around" and "evaluating and re-evaluating" but the thought processes behind this.

Also, don't bring up self-meta. It's bad. If you know your town and scum meta well enough that you can point to your play and say "this is my town meta", then you can do this when you're scum as well.


Anyway, I'll be back in about an hour and then I'll stop procrastinating with this game. brb.
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Post Post #820 (isolation #53) » Sat Aug 24, 2013 9:02 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

proddodge.
saki wrote:I'm practically sure Baezu is town.
Why?

---

Also, may as well post some of the other ISOs I've done, but I'm far from finishing them...

I have a very, very mild town read on mnemonicdevice, but I really can't get a good read on him. It's primarily a gut read based on the way he was analysing things D1. Some posts that made me feel this way were /-374 where he explained some of his reads and then , and eventually where he talked about ZZZX. I can follow the progression of his reads, they're internally consistent with no real contradictions.

N64Lord I'm thinking town atm. I don't quite recall exactly what made me think he was scum D1 but I think it had to do with him doing a lot of talking and not much in the way of taking solid stances on people. It felt like he was just egging others on without getting his hands dirty, if that makes sense. When I went over his ISO again, I didn't see the same stuff I saw the first time I read the game, and some of the stuff he was saying actually felt town. Also at the start of D2, felt really town, mostly because I didn't sense any scum intent in his criticism of my D1 play (even though it's inaccurate, but whatever).

---

Maybe will stop being lazy soon.
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Post Post #826 (isolation #54) » Sat Aug 24, 2013 6:34 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I have a feeling I can guess Titus's answer.
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Post Post #836 (isolation #55) » Sun Aug 25, 2013 4:22 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

TaskMaster is a horrible lynch. What part of him thinking he is the sole N1 cop = him town is hard to understand?

We're not lynching TaskMaster. Don't care how much you dislike him thinking you're scum or his confirmation bias or whatever, he's a bad lynch. (And believe me, I
want
to lynch notscience)

I've been really lazy. Still want a Baezu lynch. Would also support TMT and Noctan if it comes down to it (though I have no real reasons for Noctan outside of the fact that he's not a town read and I can see him being scum by PoE).
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Post Post #838 (isolation #56) » Sun Aug 25, 2013 10:58 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Yes, over a no lynch.

Process of Elimination. I work backwards from town reads when I'm not sure on my scum reads.
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Post Post #846 (isolation #57) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:40 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

@titus,

has my thoughts on Baezu, which she didn't address apart from saying, "nuh-uh, this is my town meta!"
saki wrote:I've already said Baezu is playing to her town game
*shrug* If she
knows
her town meta, then she can play to it when she's scum. She obviously thinks she knows her town meta, so it follows that it's not unlikely she'd be playing to what she thinks her town meta is as scum.
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Post Post #847 (isolation #58) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:46 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

task wrote:Why are we not being sheeped on Paschendale?
Because your read on paschendale is based on poor reasoning. If he is scum, then you've caught him for the wrong reasons.

I have my own reasons for thinking he could be town (mostly because of some of the things he was saying D1). These reasons aren't all that strong, but I don't want to lynch Paschendale today.

Regardless, if you think Paschendale is scum, he has two other buddies. Who do you think is scum with him?
mnem wrote:Task, seems like a good choice because of a general scum vibe
What do you think of my reason for believing Task is town?
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Post Post #848 (isolation #59) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 12:50 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Anyway, this is my only game currently in day phase, so I'll be doing some reading today and will generally be around for most of the day if anyone has any questions or wants to chat about who they think is scum or town, how their day has been going, what the meaning of life is, etc.
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Post Post #850 (isolation #60) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 1:12 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

So what if it's WIFOM? Do you honestly think she's going to intentionally not play to whatever she thinks is her "town" game if she's scum? Instead, look at her actual play and tell me what you think.

Also, that really shouldn't count as mentioning ongoing games.
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Post Post #852 (isolation #61) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:26 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

saki wrote:if she's scum she'd be townread by people other than me
I think you're seriously overrating her scum game. Do you think she's infallible as scum or something?

And yes, I am aware that what I said counts under the banner of Discussion about Activity (not an issue).
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Post Post #854 (isolation #62) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 3:50 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

so who do you actually think is scum then?

titus? anyone else?
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Post Post #857 (isolation #63) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:07 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

baezu wrote:This doesn't even make sense!!! I haven't even played enough games to be able to "play to my meta"
And yet, in , you claim this is your town meta.
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Post Post #861 (isolation #64) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:35 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

i don't think she's "lying" per se.

Unvote


i want to do some reading and don't want a lynch to happen yet.

also,

@baezu, who do you currently think is scum and why?
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Post Post #862 (isolation #65) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:48 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

titus, why are you being so sheepy? who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #863 (isolation #66) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 4:52 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

i'm getting paranoid because generally when people tell me i'm right that means i'm very, very wrong,

and i'm also getting paranoid that you don't actually know what the town role pm looks like.

it struck me as a little odd at the time, but i never really thought about it. your
titus wrote:I'm presuming we all act on one and only one given night.
how do you not
know
this?
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Post Post #864 (isolation #67) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 5:04 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

see, the phrasing of that particular sentence is what really irks me. it's almost as if you were just putting it out there to be like, "hey that's what mine says, look at me, but i just want to make sure that's what everyone else's says, too!" whereas i think town-titus doesn't need to write a sentence like that.

i also get icky feelings when i go over your iso and see how passive you've played this game with so little in the way of real scum hunting. it almost looks like you're not even trying to find scum in this game
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Post Post #867 (isolation #68) » Mon Aug 26, 2013 6:14 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

well it happened d1 too, and i should have been paranoid about it then, when i started questioning zzzx's read on dcl, and then suddenly 3 different people jumped on the wagon like, "yup, totally see him as scum now."

that was something i wanted to go back and look at but haven't yet. gonna get some food then resume reading things.
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Post Post #872 (isolation #69) » Tue Aug 27, 2013 1:54 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I'm not convinced Pashchendale is scum.

Titus is a vote I can get behind, I think.

Vote: Titus
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Post Post #875 (isolation #70) » Tue Aug 27, 2013 3:18 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

paschendale wrote:I dunno, Titus seems pretty on the level to me.
I get bad feelings about Titus for similar reasons to what oriole just mentioned.

What about Titus seems "on the level"?
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Post Post #877 (isolation #71) » Tue Aug 27, 2013 5:28 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

That didn't
really
answer any of the questions.

Especially not the one where I asked you who you think is scum.
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Post Post #878 (isolation #72) » Tue Aug 27, 2013 7:36 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

btw, unless my count is wrong, we have <24 hours to reach a lynch... Going by the countdown in

The deadline is midnight August 29th-- (expired on 2013-08-29 00:00:00) from now.
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Post Post #879 (isolation #73) » Tue Aug 27, 2013 10:53 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

Baezu - 3 (N64Lord, Paschendale, Titus)
Paschendale - 2 (Taskmaster, NoctanNights)
Titus - 3 (Saki, zMuffinMan, oriole)
Taskmaster - 1 (mnemonicdevice)

Not Voting - TMTOLBTWNTOF, Baezu

6 to lynch.

Baezu and TMT need to vote someone. mnemonic needs to stop wasting his vote.
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Post Post #885 (isolation #74) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:15 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

i don't think taskmaster is scum, and taskmaster town necessarily means oriole town.

the only one on this "flashwagon" that i think might be scum is paschendale and i'm not sure of that.

unvote


tell me the rest of your thoughts on the game titus. other reads. now.
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Post Post #886 (isolation #75) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:15 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

and no, i'm not buying that you actually thought that was the hammer.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #76) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:26 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

do you think paschendale spent a lot of today bussing baezu only to hop off at the first chance to lynch you?

also, replace oriole with a different name unless you think taskmaster is scum.
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Post Post #889 (isolation #77) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 4:53 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

the only thing that looked believable about #883 is that he claimed n5 cop. which kind of makes very little sense from a scum perspective if theyre trying to not get lynched (generally, i'd guess scum would claim next-night cop/doc). but i may be reading too deep into this

also i don't get the whole oriole thing when it should be really clear that oriole cant be scum unless taskmaster is scum. but this may just be because titus forgot about the investigation and is now just trying to throw dirt on the wagon

it also seems rather odd that i wasnt attacked for being the one to actually derail the baezu wagon...
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Post Post #892 (isolation #78) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:03 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

how was that a slip
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Post Post #895 (isolation #79) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:16 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

why is paschendale scum (other than being on your wagon)?

also, i strongly disagree with your assertion that only scum say "lynch this". i would use (have used) "this" to refer to the style of posting coming from a player when i've said "lynch this" in the past. it's null at best, and a language choice that's independent of alignment and more to do with the player themselves.
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Post Post #896 (isolation #80) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 5:19 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

hm. i need to go now but hopefully i'll be back in a few hours.

if you're town, try to look town enough that i don't want to lynch you because you're not currently looking all that town.
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Post Post #903 (isolation #81) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:05 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

titus wrote:I care about being protown.
well, you didn't seem to care about it much prior to just recently. unless your definition of protown is different to mine

talk about your read on paschendale more, because i didn't see the vote switch for meta reasons but playstyle reasons, and how is it opportunism when (at least according to who you think is scum) he's been sitting on his buddy all day despite opportunities to move his vote elsewhere...

also, talk about why you actually think the entire scum team would be attacking you over, say, any other player in the game (TMT looks like solid lynchbait, given the scum team you're assuming, and none of them have been attacking TMT much).
saki wrote:Titus is flailing
lynch her plz
now that we have a deadline extension i'm not in any particular rush
n64 wrote:You defend taskmaster as likely to be cop and then ask us to get his conf read? Lynch worthy!
how much of this game are you actually reading? this was covered already...
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Post Post #906 (isolation #82) » Wed Aug 28, 2013 11:28 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

titus wrote:My definition of being pro town is giving reads, listening to other people's reads and not giving a damn if you get killed if there is a logical case supporting it.
That is a very strange definition of pro-town, seeing as no pro-town player should want to be lynched, ever.

In any case, I don't think you've been playing to your own definition of pro-town, because it took a "flashwagon" on you for you to start giving your reads.
titus wrote:My definition of being pro town excludes doing things to go out of my way to look town.
I don't really expect anyone to go out of their way to "look" town. I can generally pick up on town cues just from reading the stuff someone is writing. The more natural someone's posts feel, the easier it is to read them as town. I said you're not looking very town because I'm not really picking up any town cues in your posts.
titus wrote:TMT had 0 votes other than myself or Oriole.

If they all suddenly jumped on TMT, it would be suspicious because no one had jumped on that train for awhile.
So he had two votes (which is practically as large as any of the other wagons have been today prior to just recently). And those two votes are people you should think are town (yourself and a cop inno).

I'm also not buying that you really believe it would be "suspicious" for someone to jump on that wagon, just because nobody had jumped on it in a while. It would make perfect sense for a number of reasons... Someone reassessing their current reads, someone looking at his lurking or agreeing with the cases on him or whatever, etc.
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Post Post #910 (isolation #83) » Thu Aug 29, 2013 2:38 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

I'm dismissive of it because I know town say it, too, and I know I've personally said it as town. I'm not saying scum can't use it. I'm saying it's more of a playstyle thing than an alignment thing.

I really wish Baezu would stop lurking and start posting. And I really wish fucking Noctan and TMT would stop lurking near the deadline.
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Post Post #913 (isolation #84) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 1:20 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

Vote: Titus


The deadline is midnight August 31st-- (expired on 2013-08-31 00:00:00) from now.
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Post Post #918 (isolation #85) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:04 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

assume the original deadline was 14 days after day start, and the current deadline is 16 days after daystart. if so, my timer is correct.
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Post Post #921 (isolation #86) » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:33 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

titus already claimed n5 cop
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Post Post #929 (isolation #87) » Tue Sep 03, 2013 4:56 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

i feel dumb.

i'm certain at least one of baezu and paschendale is scum. the others i'm considering at the moment are tmt and noctan.
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Post Post #932 (isolation #88) » Tue Sep 03, 2013 5:16 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

that makes things simpler.

Vote: Baezu
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Post Post #936 (isolation #89) » Tue Sep 03, 2013 9:25 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

i was considering the possibility that we sort a mass claim out today. only roles though, not nights.

i'm trying to figure out whether this is a good or bad idea. on the one hand, it let's scum know who has what role (they already know the number of each, though, so it's not that big a deal), but on the other hand this fixes the claims so that scum can't go back on it later, and i'm fairly sure they wouldn't be prepared for it today so they can't plan which of them will claim cop or doc.
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Post Post #937 (isolation #90) » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:56 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

also if you want to talk, then talk.

i don't have anything else to say today really. noctan coming out with a cop guilty doesn't change anything about my opinion on other players.

assuming a scum flip from baezu, most likely tomorrow i will be looking at tmt and paschendale. and assuming one of them isn't scum, then i'll probably have to look over my weaker town reads for whoever else is scum. but i'm almost certain at least one of those two players is scum.

i'm also not ruling out the possibility that noctan is scum, but it's very unlikely at this point, assuming baezu is scum.

how would a baezu scum flip influence any of your other reads?

(in case it wasn't already obvious from my first post today, my town reads are taskmaster, saki, mnemonic, n64... and noctan can be an addition to this list assuming a baezu scum flip)
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Post Post #939 (isolation #91) » Wed Sep 04, 2013 4:08 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

if noctan were scum faking a guilty, there are better alternatives than you. for example, anyone who actually looks town and is a threat and isn't lynchbait.
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Post Post #941 (isolation #92) » Wed Sep 04, 2013 6:22 am

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no, i mean, if you're town, you were likely to be mislynched at some point anyway. why wouldn't noctan fake a guilty on someone who would be hard to lynch?
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Post Post #945 (isolation #93) » Wed Sep 04, 2013 3:49 pm

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@pasch,

who do you think is scum outside of baezu?
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Post Post #951 (isolation #94) » Thu Sep 05, 2013 9:42 am

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i'm not particularly interested in prolonging this day for discussion at this point.
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Post Post #961 (isolation #95) » Fri Sep 06, 2013 4:46 pm

Post by zMuffinMan »

prod dodge. someone please end this day.
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Post Post #973 (isolation #96) » Sat Sep 07, 2013 4:56 pm

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baezu is a zombie. sixth vote needs to aim at the head.
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Post Post #974 (isolation #97) » Sun Sep 08, 2013 12:47 am

Post by zMuffinMan »

maybe because he's a werewolf you need a silver vote.

Vote: Baezu
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