Open 583: JK9++ (Game Over!)

Titus · Post Post #1544 (isolation #0) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:24 am

Saw this when meaning to read for another game. I am the sub for TS.

Summary please.

Titus · Post Post #1546 (isolation #1) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:28 am

Are we doing PR or VT or full on claim?

Titus · Post Post #1549 (isolation #2) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:32 am

Town Vig. Shot dodgy.

Titus · Post Post #1558 (isolation #3) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 6:53 am

I am doing math now.

Titus · Post Post #1564 (isolation #4) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:11 am

We have known

T and P. I am K. Vengeful is another K. Hider is H. Oneshot tracker is T.

We have (if all PRs are telling the truth), IIPKKH.

That leaves 1 T left. Which leaves an sk.

To roll at least many PRs means only one could come back vt. There are one hundred twenty eight different PR to VT combos alone.

But there are 7 different methods to get this number of PRs.

So the odds a PR is not lying are

7/128.

Titus · Post Post #1565 (isolation #5) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:13 am

Can y'all put the claims in an easy place fot me?

Titus · Post Post #1573 (isolation #6) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:19 am

So basically, we have proven that two PRs must be lying in order for me to be scum. Me plus someone else.

Titus · Post Post #1574 (isolation #7) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:19 am

Who did BBThide behind N1?

Titus · Post Post #1576 (isolation #8) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:28 am

In post 1324, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I have just read my role PM and was reminded of something.

If I hide behind someone and I don't die...they are confirmed town. I'm such a fucking idiot.

I hid behind Killa last night. Killa is conf town.

Found it.

If BBT is town, Killa is town.

If Killa is scum, BBT is scum.

If BBT is scum, Killa can be town.

If BBT is town, Killa was not targeted for the nightkill.

The above supposes BBT was not in jail night 1.

Titus · Post Post #1577 (isolation #9) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:29 am

So who did Dodgy jail?

Titus · Post Post #1580 (isolation #10) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:38 am

So Tean realizes that Cooper is likely jailbait and inadvertently shoots the jailkeeper.

Then scum run up the vengeful?

Who is Cooper scumreading? Whatever it is, it's likely wrong.

Titus · Post Post #1583 (isolation #11) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:48 am

Odd number of vt rolls means three kills attempted.
Even means two.

We have one VT right now as things stand. Given the PR claims, Scum or an SK would have shot Cooper as there's no other method of protection.

If that happened, all the PRs can be telling the truth.

If Dodgy did not jail Cooper, then we have at least one lying PR or mafia blocked the serial killer with their joat or overlapping kills.

Titus · Post Post #1584 (isolation #12) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:49 am

In post 1582, Heartless wrote:
In post 1580, Titus wrote:Who is Cooper scumreading? Whatever it is, it's likely wrong.

This thought occurred to me to, but this is kind of a special case where the lynch pool is substantially narrowed. Because of the vanishingly small probability of all the special claims telling the truth, one of vettrock, BBT, and/or copper are practically confirmed scum. It wouldn't be a stretch for scum-BBT to want to squeeze in a mislynch on town-copper before he goes.

Not if Cooper was going to shoot scum.

Titus · Post Post #1586 (isolation #13) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:54 am

So why would BBT, as scum, want to lynch Cooper if his goal is to live?

Titus · Post Post #1587 (isolation #14) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:54 am

Lynching Cooper to shoot BBT may be the best play.

What tracker results do we have?

Titus · Post Post #1590 (isolation #15) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 7:59 am

Ewww...why?

Titus · Post Post #1593 (isolation #16) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:06 am

If his crumbs were not subtle, then why wouldn't he use his ability N1 so we could get results if scum killed him?

Titus · Post Post #1597 (isolation #17) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:18 am

What's to stop scum from shooting cooper town?

Titus · Post Post #1601 (isolation #18) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:22 am

VOTE: Beastcharizard

If scum shoot who BBT hides behind, I hit not scum, sk (assuming existance) hits town...

That's 4 dead townies before counting today's lynch.

6 alive with 3 scum... ummm no thanks.

Titus · Post Post #1609 (isolation #19) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:38 am

Why is 5 the most probable case when 4 has a higher statisicsl chance?

Titus · Post Post #1622 (isolation #20) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 8:55 am

That sounds primed to mislynch BBT is bus acted already...

Titus · Post Post #1626 (isolation #21) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:01 am

Agreed. There is no breaking setup here.

Even my no action could hurt us if scum bussed me with the mafia kill.

Titus · Post Post #1627 (isolation #22) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:01 am

I REALLY WANT TO SHOOT BEAST!

Titus · Post Post #1643 (isolation #23) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:39 am

Beast why are you townreading me?

Titus · Post Post #1646 (isolation #24) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 9:44 am

Can I shoot if one of Cooper/BBT is scum?

Titus · Sun Feb 01, 2015 11:38 am

Well then why not volunteer to be shot if Cooper flips town?

Titus · Post Post #1662 (isolation #26) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 2:07 pm

I am asking if ppl saw crumbs. Me blind 2 crumbs. U should lrn that.

Titus · Post Post #1665 (isolation #27) » Sun Feb 01, 2015 5:29 pm

I am flattered tth.

Titus · Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:48 pm

What about bus drivers?

Titus · Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:50 pm

In post 1669, killapenwin wrote:[/b]@mod:
Q1) would replacements be informed of previous night actions/results?
Q2) If coppers slot is lynched before a replacement, (assuming he is vengeful) would their target still be bbt? [/b]

One is yes.

Titus · Post Post #1695 (isolation #30) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 5:52 am

So much theory spec...

Bold please

Lynch Cooper, yes or no.
who should cooper take if vengeful?

Titus · Tue Feb 03, 2015 10:53 am

Anen, take a position.

Do you think copper is scum?
If town, who do you think hr should vig? It is simple.

Titus · Post Post #1703 (isolation #32) » Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:53 pm

Not a mollie alt.

Why does it matter if the Cooper slot is empty? It claimed. We have info.

Titus · Post Post #1747 (isolation #33) » Wed Feb 04, 2015 3:32 am

You are obviously not caught up...

Titus · Post Post #1790 (isolation #34) » Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:34 pm

So we have IPK???. BBT claims hider. Vettock claims 1shot tracker. I am the vig. For sake of arg, I am included.

That leaves the following as possible.

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

From my perspective, the most likely setup is either BBT or Vettock is lying but not both (TT). While it is possible the SK was in jail, rbed or crosskilled, I do not really see that happening here.

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

Titus · Post Post #1794 (isolation #35) » Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:42 pm

In post 1792, Heartless wrote:
In post 1790, Titus wrote:From my perspective, the most likely setup is either BBT or Vettock is lying but not both (TT). While it is possible the SK was in jail, rbed or crosskilled, I do not really see that happening here.

hint: it's bbt

V's not using the track I find rather suspicious though....

Titus · Post Post #1797 (isolation #36) » Sat Feb 07, 2015 7:57 pm

Given dodgy's comments at the end if the day, I would expect Beast or Mastina to have been jailed, so if there is an SK, I would look there with a strong beast lean.

Titus · Post Post #1803 (isolation #37) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 3:51 am

BBT is at L minus 1. I do not like the speed of this wagon.

I also am concerned that we have no liars and a blocked SK. Every scum in that side would push a BBT lynch here most likely.

Titus · Post Post #1808 (isolation #38) » Sun Feb 08, 2015 7:26 am

In post 1806, Heartless wrote:well, first off you're staring at a 95% shot at vettrock being scum and you're ignoring it

Why?

@Beast, if your strategy is valid, it should be valid for any VT. Why not share it now? Why does every post you make like me like you less?

Also, we had a town modkilled and lost his ability. That's pretty "fair" enough and looks like you're looking for an exit hatch when BBT flips town.

Titus · Mon Feb 09, 2015 10:56 am

@Killa, no. That's not how the setup works. I am Vig or SK to anyone understanding the setup mechanics. The JOAT gets to make the mafia kill untrackable/unblockable with their abilities only if they are doing the kill. The question is, is there a serial killer who was blocked somehow.

TTTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer
TTTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver
TTTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Serial Killer

We know the top three are out, because they match to 0, 1 and 2 PRs flipping respectively. If we had four of a category then we could have fewer PRs than letters but we don't under any plausible theory.

TTTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT (Roleblock, Ninja Kill, Strongman Kill)

This setup is impossible because it requires three PR claims only. Two deaths would not occur in this setup, because that would confirm me as PR number four. Four PRs cannot exist in a 4 T setup. I cannot be SK under this theory because there is no SK. Thus, this setup is impossible.

TTT = Mafia Goon, Mafia Goon, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

This is Four PR setup. This is the setup you would go with if you thought either

I am an honest vig and BOTH BBT/Vettrock are lying.

If you mistakenly though I was lying as SK and one of BBT/Vettrock was telling the truth, but not both.

TT = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

This is 5 PRs. This setup exists if there is no SK and two of me/BBT/Vezok are telling the truth.

T = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT, Serial Killer

This is 6 PRs. That's if me/BBT/Vettock are all honest.

0 Ts = Mafia Goon, Mafia 1-Shot Bus Driver, Mafia JOAT

This setup only exists if there is a lying VT. Given that's very unlikely, I'm discarding it.

Titus · Post Post #1850 (isolation #40) » Mon Feb 09, 2015 8:31 pm

Totally not in favor of lynching BBT/Vettock today. More flips help us IMO. Two SK kills hidden will not be likely.

BBT hiding behind me will be treated as a scumclaim because of the high likelihood of my death.

Btw, if I am Maniac, I will shoot Mastina.
If I am Teacher, I am shooting Wicked.

Titus · Post Post #1855 (isolation #41) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:27 am

In post 1853, mastin2 wrote:
In post 1850, Titus wrote:Btw, if I am Maniac, I will shoot Mastina.
If I am Teacher, I am shooting Wicked.
Uh, no offense, but you really shouldn't be shooting at all.

And you cannot read crumbs for shit. I am very Transparent.

Titus · Post Post #1857 (isolation #42) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 4:45 am

4) They are crumbs my dear. That's ok. Try to guess who I am shooting. :p

I agree on BBT not saying anything. Mastina can be framed easily. Instead, he should crumb like I did.

Titus · Post Post #1859 (isolation #43) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 5:24 am

There's nothing they can do about my hints.

Titus · Post Post #1862 (isolation #44) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 8:55 am

And if scum just shoot you?

Titus · Post Post #1864 (isolation #45) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:55 am

Beast is L minus 1. Anyone townreading him?

Titus · Post Post #1865 (isolation #46) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 9:56 am

I approve of the hide behind Mastina plan.

Titus · Tue Feb 10, 2015 11:14 am

@Anenimen, A vig when wrong can be deadly to the town so don't be so sure I wi)l die.

Titus · Post Post #1877 (isolation #48) » Tue Feb 10, 2015 1:29 pm

Mastina, BBT is hiding behind you. Yet you postulate BBT might be dead tomorrow...why?

Titus · Post Post #1921 (isolation #49) » Sat Feb 14, 2015 4:37 am

Mastina, I figured SK was not in the game. Given I was pretty confident in BBT's scumread of you, shooting Vettock was the right play. Bah!

Titus · Post Post #1941 (isolation #50) » Sun Feb 15, 2015 5:02 pm

In post 1925, beastcharizard wrote:I have to disagree about me being incredibly scummy. I don't think it was enough to warrant a lynch at least. I tend to stay alive longer when I am kind of scummy even if my reads are semi-good. It does tend to frustrate people though so I might think about changing it.

Beast I thought you were buddying me...