Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)

[davesaz]

Hi folks, catchup in progress.

[davesaz]

Plotinus, are you active on another site, perhaps not so much in mafia games?

[davesaz]

Mainly just curiosity, not related to the game in any way. I was thinking CivFanatics.

[davesaz]

It's a work day, so have only had a chance to do a couple ISOs.

RationalMadman seems unusually tentative replacing in. His slot predecessor popped a meta scum read, though I can't elaborate on why. Mentioning policy lynches on lurkers and jumping the first available bandwagon is also pretty scummy.

I read through Senator's posts but don't have a read yet.

[davesaz]

You're not reading the game in it's entirety first?

I usually poke around a bit before trying to tackle the whole thing start to finish. I'm definitely not going to be speed reading it in half an hour.

In the meantime, I'd be interested to see an explanation of your reads. Not just the reads themselves, but the why.

[davesaz]

FWIW, this is the reason Town!BBT would want to get someone to L-1 sooner. Scum want claims too, so it's not exclusively a town motivation, but it's better for scum for the claim to be as late as possible so that town can't amass enough weight on an alternative lynch. In the best case for scum they get a claim and a hurried mislynch, or a no-lynch.

I have some reservations about why Papi was chosen, don't recall seeing a clear case, and have seen no reason to doubt the claim.

I'm nowhere near being caught up yet, but Madman is a good candidate for scum from what I've seen so far.

[davesaz]

573 - I have stated why Papi is scum. It's bothering me that you're not reading the game/haven't caught up since replacing in.

I saw that post and didn't think it was a very strong reason to scumread someone. Sometimes the lurkers are just lurkers. Sure, it's better than nothing, but is it a good case is what I'm trying to figure. My question is, was there anything more? Is this the best scumread in the whole game at this point? If there are equally good scumreads (other than them not being yours) is it worth discussing?

I said exactly why I'm not caught up yet. It's busy at work and that is limiting the minutes I can spend reading. It would be fairly easy to fake being caught up, but I won't do that and I know you have seen me say I won't do it before.

581 has merits. It's a claim that can be faked because it is not safe to CC.

This is a setup where PRs want to be townie enough to not get lynched, but scummy enough to not get NK'd. Just sayin'...

Pedit: I'm getting a town vibe from you but I'm also keeping our first game together in mind.

[davesaz]

Also, where is Dave?

Dave's brain can't come to the forum right now, it's fully engaged on a work issue.

[davesaz]

Starting to scan Flubbernugget for associations.

I thought this post was interesting, since it didn't identify who was being asked.

Is there a reason you have such an interest in me

Bellaphant's post was the most recent mention of Flubber.

*tapdances* better?

Would you like me to argue about why obvious jokes are obvious?

I could argue that FA's vote on flub is silly, but I don't necessarily think fa is scum.

Actually, a better idea is to ask @farside: why you so bothered about my 'crap posting' when other people *cough*conman*cough* are arguably making less progress towards sorting the game. Also, what are your thoughts on plot/flub/choof?

@flub, any initial reads?
@papi, your thoughts?
Currently, I'd like to hear more from choof, as he promised a big post.

Also, plot, I'm pretty new.

But Bella had not previously mentioned Flubber. Why ask about having an interest in him when this is the first reference? Why the concern?

[davesaz]

*sigh*
I have made it abundantly clear, in responses to questions posed by Bella, that I am not entirely sure of papi's alignment. I have also made clear my suspicions of flubbed and my general distaste with his play style. He isn't playing to town wincon. He's suggesting quick lynches and flash lynches, and seems to be intentionally aggravating me to serve his own means. Based entirely on him trying to insult me in such a way as to hammer papi (read: BAITING) I'm starting to think papi could be town. His eagerness to end discussion by getting a lynch in so as to enter the night is incredibly suspicious, but apparently no one gives a damn. Once again: I say baiting as in he is trying to illicit a response from Mr that furthers his own goals.

This suggests that ConMan is the 3rd scum. Flubber and ConMan voted each other, possibly to distance. ConMan's only vote is on the CW.

[davesaz]

Davesaz only has 3 posts with opinions in them.

This doesn't really

need

defending, but we're in such a good position that I don't want any worthless leads to be out there.

I wasn't actually caught up -- work avalanched about the same time I replaced in and this is my first opportunity since then.

[davesaz]

At a theory level only, the SK is likely to be someone who was scumreading Flubber. I have someone in mind already but it will take some reading to verify.
At a WIFOM level, the SK might be someone who wasn't scumreading Flubber, trying to get us to pursue someone who was.

Yeah, that means anyone could be SK. But I lean toward theory over WIFOM. The SK needs to try to eliminate mafia and that takes precedence over adding WIFOM on purpose. Best to pursue the "someone scumreading Flubber" angle first.

[davesaz]

@farside: Are you only checking con vs flubber and con vs papi, or generally looking at flubber and papi?

After a second look, I agree on con not scum with flubber. The wagon dynamic throughout the day suggests they are very unlikely to be partners. That review also reduced the SK chance of the person I initially noticed as being on flubber.

I'm nowhere near finished on reviewing either flipped scum btw. In this mode I tend to point things out as I see them.

Pedit: the VCA from before Papi popped up is also interesting. It looks to me like several wagons were probed to see if town would go for them.

[davesaz]

I wasn't convinced that Papi was scummy enough to vote for.

Feeling a little sick tonight, not sure how active I'll be able to be tomorrow.

[davesaz]

Also, where is Dave?

Dave's brain can't come to the forum right now, it's fully engaged on a work issue.

[davesaz]

That's a pretty long list. I'm having a lot of trouble following the "being off and on the papi wagon" part. Some of the people you list are on, some are off. So how exactly does the papi wagon fit into your list?

[davesaz]

Actually, I'm having a really hard time finding you taking a stance on anything today. Have I just missed it?

[davesaz]

Claim: PR

Claim: Busy

[davesaz]

I've been catching up a few posts at a time, in between meetings at work. Got to the good stuff about 20 minutes ago.
I'm on board with coordinating elements.
Tracker tracks vanilla claims since we have exactly enough PR's claimed. We lynch from the untracked.
We get two nights of safety for the tracker (given the backup), then a 66% chance the 3rd night.

Coordinating the last night is complicated since the docs have to be separated but SK needs to not know which is which. I'll try to work out a scheme and post it before the hammer in case I'm the one who gets offed tonight.

[davesaz]

EBWOP unless we get a guilty that is... should be obvious but best to be clear.

[davesaz]

That's a lot of posts for a little under 5 hours.
What's the VC now?

BBT matches scum meta in one specific way, which is being really pushy trying to get a lynch going. But that's a town trait for him too. I don't remember any games where he was SK.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Senator
Just in case the count was off...

[davesaz]

Oh, great there was another page.

[davesaz]

I had SK last time this setup ran, and also hit mafia N1. Town didn't lynch mafia so fast that game but the tracker with massclaim was still pretty powerful.
If scum get lucky and hit a doc or two, the setup swings the other way. In that case mafia can claim VT and the VT pool is too big to PoE.
I think I'd classify it as swingy, vs. townsided. It will probably take another couple of runs to know what the true balance is.

[davesaz]

I think we should not lose sight of the mafia lynches / SK killing mafia. Without those elements of the equation, town can't just massclaim because scum can hunt docs and still have time to get to the tracker.

I'd lean toward removing the backup doc instead of adding mafia power. With a backup present and doc coordination (and no lying scum in the doc pool), the tracker gets 2 guaranteed safe nights. Take away the backup and it's only one guaranteed night.

I don't remember if this has been suggested already, but elemental bodyguard instead of elemental doc would reduce (not quite completely eliminate) the no-kill nights.

Another completely different idea would be to make the tracker an "elemental tracker". You track an element, not a player, and get back a result of all the players who used that element. This potentially gives the tracker 3 results (doc, mafia, SK) but could be as little as no result if nobody used that element. I don't know if this nerfs the tracker so badly to make it useless.