Open 595: Elemental Mafia (Town Wins!)
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wow hi, 35 pages! I don't even know where to begin.
I read through it during the night and made some notes about things that stood out to me. That turned out to be a lot more than I expected, and while I'm trying to type one sentence, three others are dancing in my head distracting me from what I'm actually trying to write. I don't have any real strong reads right now. BBT is town to me for getting scum lynched, dave looks town to me because even though he didn't want to vote PB, his reasoning for it looked town-motivated. Flubber felt null-scum to me because of how he posted and I would have made a case against him had he not died. Reverend, FaQ2 (and Ricastle) all feel town to me, Bella started out feeling scummy but that later shifted more towny. I think conman is town although I am a little concerned about 712 after flubber flipped scum.. I'm null on farside, wrongsong and Plotinus. Senator feels scummy but he seems to always have that (I know, I knew before I chose to replace in even) Null-scum on lane. RMM, well, I think that if he is scum he is SK because he so carelessly joined that bandwagon on mafia.
I'm happy to elaborate, right now I'm at a loss at what to prioritize. Need to reread a couple of iso's which I'll do later.
PEdit: lots of new posts there.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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@Bella: My playingstyle is mostly reactionary. I read something that triggers a reaction and I respond to it by questioning, or sharing my thoughts about it at least. This works best real time, because I feel like the more time in between posting and questioning, the more time there has been to come up with a good excuse so a reaction is not really useful anymore. But I'm able to give some posts that triggered something for me that made me come to my reads.
On lane I didn't really like 746, 296 felt like an indirect way of explaining, 616 is just annoying. Is silent for a long time while the bandwagon on his vote-target seems to catch on but then moves to papi bear. Then lane tries to put senator in a bad light but to me the case isn't that strong though, and then hops on the papi bw at a rather late stage.
Senator was defending papi's claim, and also tunneling on Reverend, so that felt not so good to me.
I really liked 494 by Reverend, 523 feels genuine to me, I could follow his logic most of the time. But there have been little things that worry me (673 for instance), that make it a weak townread.
RMM I've partly explained already, but let me expand. His PL suggestion sucked, even more so because he's the one lurking. Posts minimal/no content and then just jumps the bandwagon on Papi. I think as mafia, in combination with his lurking, he could have easily voted someone else as there were several suspects. He voted quite early as well. Seems to me he's either bored/overwhelmed town, or the SK. I'm not completely disregarding RMM as mafia, I just think it's the least likely of options.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 902, Bellaphant wrote:Eh, maybe it's the total lack of content: I agree with what sen said about the SK being able to read people well, and there's no indication of that. Of course, SK could be laying low on purpose, but I do wonder if they'd need to have some more interaction with slots to hit on maf.
Also interesting is that scum didn't hit a Pr last night.
Never played an SK or really had any interaction with them. From the wiki it looks like their win-con can be different?
Good point, didn't think about that really. I think flubber wasn't hard to scumread though and looking at RMM's joindate, that suggests he's experienced, so not sure if it really applies. But certainly something to consider.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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@Senator: how does it look like I trust the joindate? I used the words 'suggest' and 'not sure', that doesn't sound like fully trusting something to me.
I did read up, I said before I had already read the thread during night and made notes. I gave my reads, I don't feel it's really necessary to comment on everything that happened day 1, some things were resolved, some things will come up again when I see relevance today. If anything else needs clearing up before I get to it naturally, just ask me.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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I'm going to look into the RMM bandwagon. With this, I'm going on the assumption that RMM is town and was the easy option for scum to take to try to derail the PB-wagon. I'm not sure this really happened, that's why I'm looking into this.
4 people were on this wagon: dave, wrongsong, conman and farside. I already have slight townreads on dave and conman, so I will focus my attention on wrongsong and farside first.
wrongsong:I found some inconsistencies or things that pinged me in his 201
conman's 12 bothers him a lot, so the earlier unvote looks a little weird to me.
Is not bothered by Choof's joke. (I think 12 and 50 were both obvious jokes)
The next part feels contradicting with not being bothered by the joke.
His response to lane about responding to ric, he's actually doing the same thing on conman..
215 he is very pushy on conman's 12
454 isn't alarmed by PB's defensiveness wrt lurking, which stands out to me because he's been so pushy over 12.
647 I just can't follow this
651 thinks PB is town, no mention of the docclaim itself and his thoughts on it.
After this I think it looks pretty clear wrongsong is very much trying to avoid lynching PB and gets inactive after that post.
Also active lurking: 167, 271, 901, 914 which on itself doesn't mean much but with the other points makes the scumscale heavier.
farside:
She votes in 38 on a gutfeeling. Then in 46 she explains how she got to the gutfeeling. At first I thought it was weird and felt like looking for a good reason to explain your gut, but on second read I can follow 46 a little better. I do think it would have looked more genuine had farside explained her gutread in her original vote-post.
101 reads a little third-party-ish to me actually. But there's a good chance that is because flubber was SKilled last night.. Furthermore, she calls bella still scum for being non-responsive. In 290 she gets into that still, right after saying Plotinus' last post rang true to her. That was 285 wherein Plotinus explained she doesn't react to a single vote. So how is Bella suspicious for non-reaction and Plotinus not? There seems to be a discrepancy in reading players on this point.
129 bad reading or reaching? (farside completely missed the reasons faq2 wrote for voting flubber)
253 farside is concerned of flubber because he's active, in 347 farside is saying the opposite; flubber not being his scumhunting self. (maybe I misinterpreted 253, please clarify)
274 The last part bothered me. To me, an exxaggeration of scummy behaviour (like lane made on bella, and Ric responded to) is scummy. There was also no real indication yet that farside had shifted to a townread on bella yet, so defending bella's statement makes it a little more weird. But now knowing there is only one mafia left, this can in no way be defending a scumbuddy, so I'll see this is null for now.
470 and 472 seem to me farside is trying to avoid joining the bandwagon but then sees she cannot ignore the case. Doesn't address PB in any way though.
555 farside unvotes PB after his doc-claim.
578 So conman is more lurking than PB?
599 keeps push on conman
601 farside, why did you allow PB to lurk through the game?
644 just feels weird to me and I don't really know how to explain it.. I guess it's mostly because of the linebreaks. Haven't seen her done that before like that.
749 Out of nowhere jumps to a vote on RMM. More viable bandwagon or genuine town confusion?
It bothers me farside never addressed PB. I also don't like the tunnelling on conman. The flubber-read feels less than genuine to me, but at least she has been interacting with flubber at times.
920: farside, is your gutread based on the lack of interaction you were talking about? And how did you decide between RMM and wrongsong?
Not sure what to think about the claiming-ideas, I have no experience with mass-claiming and anything related. At first glance I'd say it's rolefishing, but contemplating the how of it makes it look more town to me.
Conclusion: I'd be comfortable voting for wrongsong at this point over farside. I have concerns about farside but the scumfeel is stronger with wrongsong.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 928, Senator wrote:You are misunderstanding the point of it. We're more interested in what the dead people say.
That makes sense actually.
@conman: I may not have used the term tunnelling by the proper definition. In that post it meant that farside kept you as a scumread for all of day 1 while other reads were able to change.
farside's response in 933 is okay for me because I can relate.
Now something else popped in my head. I thought BBT was about surely town for getting papi lynched, but that doesn't necessarily have to be town motive. Could also be SK. I have no idea whether he is, but I don't want to disregard anyone lynching scum from being SK. Just want this out there, I'm on board with finding mafia today and leaving the SK-discussion for later.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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@BBT: 586 is where dave is mostly reluctant to vote papi. It felt genuine to me, not quite sure why. Also hindsight, he's referring to a post of flubber as well as almost defending the papi lynch, which is a lot of association in one post.
I included them because I read before they flipped. It also matters how I read them for my other reads. For instance: someone pushing hard on a townread of mine will look more scummy to me.
I explained my read on lane in 906, it's not a strong scumread that's why it's null-scum (see 892)
PEdit:
A lot of new posts, a lot of new things to consider.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Let me add my thoughts on how a SK would work:
He doesn't want to get shot by scum, and he doesn't want to get lynched by town; how do we all do that? By scumhunting. Mafia has a hard time doing that because they need to lie about everything if they don't want to implicate themselves. A SK however is alligned by themselves and can scumhunt as genuinely as any town member.
Now I don't think a SK would like the scum gone this early, especially with the amount of players we have here, because that will be a lot of vote-dodging when SK is the only scum left. Also, SK would benefit from the double NK's because they'll end up alone sooner. But then there's the chance mafia kill the SK and SK doesn't want that, but if they feel safe I think they'll want to wait a few nights before killing mafia.
So now I think the SK had indeed a townfeel to flubber and I've already seen one person fit this, but I'd like to go back and find if there are more.
@Plotinus: what was your reason for finding mafia first and SK after?
@more experienced players: does it make sense to go for mafia first and disregard the SK for a while? I don't have experience with SK-games, played one of those a long time ago, and the guy who was SK was a troll and outed himself first or second day..
I think we should focus on finding scum. The hard part will be that neither of them have someone to defend, but that may also be key.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 746, lane0168 wrote:I want Bella still... Bella, no nothing has changed.
I really want senator gone.
I'll lynch papi to get this shit storm over with.
Why the Fuck does rationalmadman have 4 votes?
Don't ask me stupid questions please. I'll answer relevant Specific questions. I won't answer "what do you think about this person" questions cause what the Fuck is going on? Senator is being ridiculous. So is rev.Bbt I'm so sorry I got on you about pushing for a lynch cause god damn. I should've hammered that shit when I had the chance.But right now my girlfriend is... not the coolest.
Interested in looking back to see who busted off the papi wagon after L-1 twice? I believe?
I'll be checking in to hammer if I get the chance again
Didn't much like the bolded part and didn't like the tone of the entire post. It also feels a little like lane already knew scum was being lynched (mostly the italic-part)-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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I've checked ISO's (I skimmed them while having 'flub' as search-term so if anyone talked about flubber without using his name, you were missed sorry)
The players that thought Flubber was scum:
Conman (since RVS even, parks his vote on fllubber until he finally jumps to RMM, between VC 1.11 and 1.12)
FAQ2
farside (but she isn't pushing or questioning flubber)
Senator
(Ricastle died, but he also thought Flubber was scum)
Players that thought Flubber was town:
Bella
BBT (but he starts of with a scumread on Flubber)
Plotinus (mentiond Flubber in her reads-list but nowhere else)
Reverend (gets nervous later about Flubber but no definite scumread)
Wrongsong
The rest:
dave doesn't even mention Flubber at all during day 1.
RMM has no content whatsoever.
Papi didn't really take a chance, he thought Flubber looked scummy but later posts looked like scumhunting. Doesn't matter much but adding him for completeness.
Now that I have this list I will have to examine it. I hate putting this out without a conclusion, but responses to this while I'm evaluating this list might help me out so I'm sharing already anyway. I have a lot of information in my head right now and fragmenting it takes me a long time (my mind isn't the average human-mind, I need more time to process things) so I'm going to clear my head first before digging in.
One bold thought I'd like to share because this will keep floating around until I post it.. In my opinion BBT could still be SK. He was dead set on a Papi lynch yesterday, and SK would probably not like to shoot the person they were pushing a lynch on all day long, even if they were scum. Also SK sort of hiding his other scumread to kill him at night so there is no association comes to mind when I think about this. I don't like I'm thinking this. I'd rather have BBT be town because he got us scum lynched, so I'm mostly posting this hoping I can get rid of the paranoia.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Took some time to look back on dave because my read on him seems to clash with several other players.
502 and 506 looked more town than scum to me, 573 read as town to me too, I don't see scum not doubting a buddy's claim.
586 is where dave questions the scumread on Papi. I've already explained how I feel about that in 974
Looking back at day 1, this is pretty much the only content from dave. I can see now why he is being scumread.
Lets move to day 2
880: I don't get this, see spoiler below.
881 and 883 dave posts some theories but doesn't really do anything with it.
888 I like what dave said about the bandwagons before Papi, but he really needs to start putting some work in himself.
It took me a while to realize, but with this setup not doubting a doc-claim doesn't really mean much, so 573 and 586 look less town for me than they did. Combined with my misinterpretation, dave is back to null for me. I'd like to see some reads from him because so far he hasn't really posted any.
Spoiler: post 880 with explanation-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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I could vote for wrong song for reasons I already posted in 930.
Haven't had time yet to get into my list from 1047 (SK-stuff) and I'm not sure how useful that is at this point, maybe it's better to do when the mafia is gone completelely? I'm lazy and it's sooooo many pages to go through. But it's only gonna get worse so I am going into it tonight when I get home from training.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1118, lane0168 wrote:Why would he say this if he knew conman would flip town? Can someone explain that?
712 See, this post keeps bothering me.
But I really need a shower so be back in a bit. I was kinda townleaning on conman so either I missed something, or flubber did indeed lie to incriminate conman (which scum would do and flubber is confscum..) Gonna dig into that first, SK stuff gets pushed back more, will get to that later.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1123, Bellaphant wrote:Nah, I think you are wrong here lane. It was pretty obvious Papi was the lynch for the day, and flub was clearly after the town-cred of bussing papi.I don't think anyone was expecting the flub kill night one.Con was easy lynch-bait day 1, so flub's posting makes perfect sense to set him up as a mislynch day 1.
I liked this, especially the bolded part.
I've been skimming conmans day 1 iso and read his day 2 posts. He's mostly in the background,
When I first saw 736 I thought it was town because flubber was already bussing papi so didn't think he'd go bussing someone else, and with a mafia already being the obvious lynch of the day I wouldn't expect scum to go bussing each other in the end. Now that I have thought about this possibility, 736 may be bussing a scumbuddy because buddy 1 is not happy at all with how buddy 2 is playing while buddy 3 is being lynched.
As Bella said, nobody expected flubber to get nightkilled. And that is exactly what could be the flaw in mafia's plan.
Or conman could be SK and stabbed flubber.
Or conman is just town, then he should do some scumhunting.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1142, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:I have no idea why Wrong is trying to lynch from the Papi wagon. He says it would 'not be beneficial' for both scum to bus yet ALL FOUR of his lynch candidates are on the Papi wagon.
Something isn't right here.
Feels to me it's more laziness than anything else but I agree it doesn't look right.
Senator hasn't been in for a while, almost due for prod. It's likely he was forgotten because of other topics being discussed (PR's, SK, massclaims, dave, conman, wrong song) I don't like his absence but wasn't he busy with a termpaper? 945 Senator already mentioned flubber was likely framing conman. I should dig into his iso to see if it's possible Senator knew that's what flubber was doing, or was just guessing. I'd like to see his response to the recent discussion about this.
I have some stuff to do so iso's will have to wait to tonight. I plan to look at Senator ofc, and I'll do some others as well.
@Wrong song: what was the purpose of quoting those VC's?-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1351, Wanderer-nl wrote:Oh I completely missedthisthe page before this page.
Ok so now what?
Ebwop.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Yes you got papi lynched, SK could have done that too.
flubber was mafia so at least 1 bussed. I do find it hard to believe the 3rd would be there too, have even reposted those thoughts.
farside I can see, FA not so much yet. You haven't responded to what Plotinus said about that but instead jumped on a new massclaim.
You're definitely not mafia to me, you might be still SK, you're not confirmed town because your PR-read (that is wrong) is still alive.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1453, TheReverend wrote:God conman just give toffee town cred for killing scum instead of a PR suspect, stop being difficult.
Still reading up but this one actually made me laugh. (no additional townpoints though)-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1536, TheReverend wrote:
Aw I was gonna self hammer to teach you fuckers not to let outed scum get to L-1.
I'm sort of sad because you entertained me.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1575, Plotinus wrote:I did ctrl f on " SK" (the space to keep me from catching the sk in "ask" which would have driven me crazy). any other mentions were not caught.
Oh do capitals matter? When I looked at flubber-associations I always searched flub, not Flub. I might be not too accurate anymore bah. Doesn't matter much because mafia is caught now so phew.
Well, sleep tight almost everyone.
Rev, have fun in the afterlife.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Ah ok, misread your space-thing.
I was thinking it's best for Bella to keep conftown-results to herself. Yes, SK knows where the PR's are now and will likely go after those before killing conftown, but if the SK doesn't know who is conftown, he/she has to be more careful with who to FoS. Bella can confirm town when they're in danger of being lynched.
But then I got thinking; 3 docs and a backup means SK needs 4 nights to get all the docs out of the way. SK needs to kill them in order to secure a kill on the tracker. Having conftown during that time will make it easier to catch the SK. So now I'm thinking maybe Bella should come right out with her results?
*Thinking thinking thinking ah there it is*
SK can't let the docs live because in the end he'll be alone between the docs and then he's dead. So we need conftown, so yeah, Bella should just come forward with her result either way.
But in the end I'll let Bella decide what to do with her result when the new day starts.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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In post 1324, BlueBloodedToffee wrote:Dave: PR
Wrong: PR
RMM: PR
Bella: PR
ConMan: PR
Plotinus: VT
FA: VT
BBT: VT
Farside: VT
Senator: VT
Lane: VT
+ Wanderer: VT
I'm quoting this because I'm using this list to remind myself what everybody claimed as it's the toppost on the 2nd page of BBT's iso and I'm not there but I don't want to be forgotten.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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What FAQ2 wrote about BBT, that was my first thought too when he said he was suddenly willing to be lynched.
I think we should talk.
If we lynch a VT every day and the SK kills a PR every day, SK is left with a VT last day and will win. It might be very good strategy for SK to not have killed last night. We should talk and if we can't come to a decision today, we can always decide to no-lynch.
Thoughts?-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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@FAQ2: thanks for putting down the numbers. Now I don't think SK is going to put the numbers out like this and tell town we have already won, so can we not lynch FAQ2 today?
@Bella: I don't think the SK is going to kill from the VT-pool, that only makes him lose the game faster. (Hitting my head happened when I was cleaning up at work, was down on the floor and got up and banged my head into a machine on the wall.. Tiredness is from rollerskating tonight, had training and we practiced hitting (hipchecks, shoulderchecks, bodychecks) and I gave/received quite some impact. It was awesome.)-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Oh hello we have Senator at L-1. I'm around for a little bit longer, holding a hammer. I'm not sure, I have no idea, but if we feel like we're good then I'll hammer.
I think FAQ2 can also be excluded for posting the maths in 1635 I don't think the SK would share this with town.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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So I went to look at this for a little bit:
Spoiler:
It's a little spread out and I'm thinking maybe the SK expressed a townread (throughout the day or near the end) on flubber so the kill wouldn't link to him. I'm going to sleep on it, it's late. I'm still willing to vote Senator but I don't really like doing that close to going to bed. Maybe in the meantime someone else spots something I missed.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Oh I didn't include myself in that list but I'll remind you that I replaced in right after night 1 started, I read up during night and had reads before the flips and I also thought flubber was scummy (892)-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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@farside: I would have considered it too, but I think I was in a good enough position to go ahead and make a stab anyway.
I don't know players well enough to make such a deduction, but I definitely saw Pisskop/Senator and BBT as possible SK's. Plotinus had me worried as well because I'm used to bigger posts with thoughts from her. But I've only played 2 newbies with her and this setup was a little harder so I gave her benefit of the doubt, glad I did.-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Take away the backup doc maybe?
I think roleblocker or some other mafia PR would balance things out more. But as town we did have a lot of luck catching scum (well you since I wasn't around back then) day 1 and the SK shooting scum N1, and our tracker being smart enough to track the 3rd scum. Well done BBT for catching scum day 1, good job Pisskip for killing the second one, and very nice job Bella for catching the 3rd!
And ofcourse@mod: thanks for modding!-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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Maybe every goon also has elemental roleblock where they can block the docs element like the doc can protect scum's chosen element. That would stop a mass-claim where docs have to out what element they're going to use. And only 1 goon may roleblock per night, the one whose element gets chosen, just like the factional kill. Would that work?-
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Wanderer-nl Mafia Scum
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