Open 601: Diffusion of Power (Game Over)

[Mathdino]

The timestamp on my confirmation is literally identical to my role PMs. Just so happened to be online at exactly the right time. 2gud

VOTE: kyndy because her first post weirds me out.

[Mathdino]

If MathDino doesn't Obv town by page two I'm going to have to lynch him.

OH MY GOD I'M LITERALLY IMPLODING UNDER THE PRESSURE

Anyway revision to my earlier post is that I actually meant kyndy's 2nd post weirds me out, the tone and such.

Also I had all these setup ideas when I signed up but then I forgot that this was that setup because the game took so long to start. Aight so

1. Massclaim role but not night. Idea is that even though scum know the distribution of roles, no matter what the distribution will be 4-6, 5-5, or 6-4. And due to the Pigeonhole Principle (OMG ACTUALLY GETTING TO USE MATH IN MAFIA) if everyone claims, we either have 7 or more cops or 7 or more docs, and the larger group MUST have scum. If scum are shit at claiming then we might have 8 cops/docs.

Thoughts everyone?

I'm trying to think of how this could be detrimental but I mean, everyone's a PR and I can't see why scum would favour killing one group over another, and even if they did favour it, the docs can play the WIFOM game too, so it doesn't actually change the randomness of the night.

2. Cops claim the day before they can investigate.

Which would mean N1 cops would claim today.

Draws the doc protection when necessary, leaves less claim room for scum later on.

3. Roles claim after they've been used. Obvious reasons, allows docs to protect better targets.

An unbolded: Thoughts everyone? (first idea is more important due to being relevant right now)

Edit: Glad you asked . Sarcasm gives me a strange gut vibe of non-genuineness and her question seemed oddly both confrontational and irrelevant. Like it was trying to ask questions relevant to what's going on but without really scumhunting?

So yeah to clarify, my vote is serious. That is, Page 1-serious.

[Mathdino]

1. Claims make NO ONE an IC. Scum can no kill, scum can lie, don't let anyone be confirmed through claim.

2. Not claiming unless everyone is either on board or enough people are on board to force the dissenters to go with it.

I will claim not night 1 though. You?

Edit: @wgeurts

[Mathdino]

You raise a good point about the night claims but we could always semi solve it by having docs do the old flip a coin to save the claimed cop or save someone of your choice.

I definitely think d1 is the best time to mass claim, and ideally first 8 pages so scum is definitely not organised.

After thinking about how long it'd take to organise this I'vr changed mind on not claiming yet.

I be cop.

@mod: do scum have day talk?

Edit: K now I totally agree with insanity, ty for considering that.

[Mathdino]

After careful 5 minute long reconsideration, I'm not even really sure about trusting docs who come out with a protection.

Day 1

Scum 1: Hey guys I'm N1 doc!
Scum 2: Hey I'm N1 cop!

Night 2

Scum 1: Let's no kill.

Day 2

Scum 1: Hey guys I saved Scum 2!
Scum 2: Hey guys Scum 3 is town!
Scum 3: Awesome, I'm N2 cop!

My priority is to preserve the cops long enough to get investigations. My 2nd priority is to get people to not die at night. I honestly think that the amount of information that we can get if everything goes well outweighs slowing down the usual time frame of deaths (and we'll probably get at best one save all game). Docs should exist to scare mafia away from killing the cops.

Edit: When I played Stack The Deck with him he blatantly rolefished under the guise of shitty setup spec. The problem here is determining how genuine his ideas actually are, and whether he's changed since then. I find it kinda hard to believe he'd use the exact same tactic twice after getting lynched for it (iirc? correct me if wrong)...

Who else here has played with wgeurts?

[Mathdino]

Popcorn: wgeurts

Lack of daytalk is great, no synchronisation or planning and we can analyse order of claims for scum gambits.

Edit: DAMMIT MAN. Eh whatever you go next.

I really hope you didn't come up with the scenario I described as scum and basically planned this to happen. Gotta ask though, did you come up with the doc claim idea before or after I posted?

[Mathdino]

Forgot to post this:

If we standardise having docs claim before the night they activate, 2 problems:
1. What if no one claims doc? gg scum, just shoot the cop.
2. What if scum knows there are 4 docs and 2 claim N1 and 2 claim N2? gg scum, shoot all the cops.

[Mathdino]

Go popcorn someone.

My only thought on night claiming is that cops should claim ONLY the day before they investigate. If any N2 cops claim now, they will get insta shot no doubt. It's just asking for trouble.

[Mathdino]

Again, what if scum know there are only 4 docs and all of them are on N1 and N2? Docs have no good reason to claim unless they think they just saved someone. Standardisation of doc claims crosses the threshold of giving scum more information than town.

The goal of cop/doc claims is to reduce claimspace, kill scum plans, and determine which group is larger since we know it has scum.

The goal of having cops claim before they investigate is to draw protection and avoid dying.

Explain the goal of having docs claim their night ever.

[Mathdino]

You seem to think scum would be dumb enough to kill the guy that their claimed doc said he/she'd target.

They're not.

Plus what if the cop dies because the doc decided to try to WIFOM the scum and save someone else?

[Mathdino]

omg that's ika

this game is gonna be hilarious

[Mathdino]

Just claim. Popcorning is for forcing reluctant people.

[Mathdino]

VOTE: Reubus

[Mathdino]

Fromage is da real MVP.

I am really not trusting the doc claims right now. Actually trusting them less than the cop claims. The question for me is, supposing the 2nd cop claim was scum (don't remember which one was 2nd?), would scum predict that we'd all suggest having them investigate each other?

Idk this WIFOM is confusing. Might be best to actually just investigate each other. Would probably be better to leave that as the plan and start scumhunting.

I agree MetalCyanide is acting weird, and I think he's probably scum if one of the N1 claims is scum. I don't want to lynch him quite yet though because we'll have more information tomorrow.

kyndy's 51 is really messing with me, bad vibes all around. It's the wishy-washiness of it makes me think it's coming from a scum perspective of "Oh shit they're fucking up the setup". SC wagon is good to get them into the game but I'm comfortable with a

VOTE: kyndy

[Mathdino]

I understand your suspicions about all the early claims. However from a strategic POV it's best to lynch one of the day-1 doctors on day 2. We don't have to worry about the day-1 cops. Hopefully they will clear each other.

I don't have a problem with kyndy's post. I like that she posts her opinion about claiming even if she has no idea of mafia theory.

Of course, that's why I'm not voting Reubus anymore.

The problem for me is the most suspicious people ARE those N1 claimers so I've got no idea who to push right now.

Would like more thoughts on kyndy's post actually to make sure I'm not crazy.

[Mathdino]

¡Buenos días! ¿Qué tal? Vivo en Europa.

Mathdino, if we assume that we have 5 doctors, what are the odds exactly 2 are day-1 doctors? I'm too dumb and tired to do it myself.

Completely irrelevant probabilistically. The fact that some given situation is unlikely does NOT make it more likely that scum influenced that situation.

I could find out if anyone thinks it matters but at the end of the day we have to treat players on a case by case basis, not as statistics.

Edit: Vote kyndy with me

[Mathdino]

The entire game is agreeing on the same set of town reads and scum reads.

Somethings amiss, will do analysis later.

[Mathdino]

Could we not have them check the doctors instead? I'm wary of Rubus' second doc claim

Finally figured out the flaw in this. Cops investigating each other is the right move because they're guaranteed to survive the night (unless scum outs themselves). If we decide cops should investigate docs,

A. No backup plan for if the cops are scum, and
B. Scum shoots one of the now confirmed town docs, problem solved.

Our goal is to maximise information.

Large post in another tab coming up.

[Mathdino]

Seriously I townread all of them, some to a higher degree and some to a lower degree. But for everyone I've got a reason why I townread them (except for wgeurts and Reubeus but we can lynch them tomorrow anyway). If you want to know the reason for a specific player, ask.

THIS IS WHY I'M PARANOID.

Everyone's townreading all the same players and scumreading all the N1 claims. I refuse to believe every single scum claimed N1 but I'm fairly certain one of them is scum.

So what we're looking for is one of the non-N1s that's going with the crowd.

Let's make a list (gonna do this as I go):

Aneninen/Fromage: I actually didn't get the townvibes from Anen that everyone else got, he gave me kinda fishy vibes (granted, town Aneninen does that A LOT). Fromage is da real MVP in terms of being useful and pro-town. The problem is, for him to be scum (assuming one of the N1 claims is scum) he'd have to be willingly throwing away his partner who claimed cop, or he's scum with one of the N1 docs.
Going over his ISO though, seeing him as scum takes so much of a stretch that the only way I could conceivably see myself scumreading him is at LyLo.

insanity: Not getting townvibes. Or maybe this game is making me second guess all my initial townreads, because I liked insanity for town back during the setup spec. The Soft-Spoken vote I like a lot though, and she's definitely pushing the game forward, so my brain says she should be town.

kyndy: Reevaluation and a bit of a meta dive tells my gut kyndy's town now actually. The main issue I'm grappling with is her reads list, since it basically agrees with everyone but with tons of reasons. A lot of the reasons (example, her opinion of Fromage) seem incredibly contributory but I just don't have a scum-kyndy game to work with so I don't know how good she is at emulating her town self. I'm going to label her opinion as genuine.

MetalCyanide: Okay this ISO is just fishy, occurred to me that I wasn't actually reading most of his posts due to the quote issues.

Edit: I wrote this like 2-3 hours ago but I don't want to lose it so Imma just post it and crash.
Plan (to future self) was to group the N1 claims together and try to figure out who makes most sense as scum outside of them.

Actually on second thought sleep deprived me has a new crackpot idea:
Would scum be so obvious as to start trying to vote out the N1 claims? I think the only reason they'd want to do that is if they ended up being right (elaborate bussing scheme). So for example if wgeurts is scum, Pistachion is probably scum trying to bus his partner.
SC and Marcrell seem like opportunistic votes. There is no good evidence on Marcrell, it's literally just parking your vote on a player that won't respond until he gets replaced. So sleep deprived me is gonna go with a

VOTE: Soft spoken

sorry for the disorganisation of this post

OH ANOTHER IDEA ONE SEC

[Mathdino]

never mind it was a shit idea, bye

[Mathdino]

And he's gone. This is ridiculous.
VOTE: Marcrell

Talk.

I've little interest in voting someone who needs to be replaced.

[Mathdino]

Hey everyone, sorry, lotta stuff going on, should be back to business though.

Okay. So we have 7 cop claims and 6 doc claims. All this means for now is that there is at least one scum in the cop group.

When I thought we had 8 cop claims, I thought this meant more likely that not NM would be town. As surely the last (scum) person to claim would be able to add up the number of cop/doc claims so far and pick the one which would result in a 7-6 split? Since this is no longer the case, that gut townread has been somewhat vitiated. I don't find the scepticism of claiming by itself particularly alignment indicative. But fully claiming after not liking even a mere cop/doc claiming seems contradictory.

I haven't read past here but I want to comment on this because I've been thinking this thought all day but couldn't talk until everyone claimed.

Consider optimal play.

Say there's a 4-6 split. Scum knows that we'll say "Oh, there must be scum in the 7 group, we have to lynch there" because that's literally what I said earlier today. So it'd be suicidal to pack all 3 scum into the cop group making it 7-6. No, scum would want to make it 6-7 so there's only ONE scum in the large group that we want to lynch in.
If there's a 5-5 split then it doesn't really matter as long as it results in 6-7 or 7-6.
And if there's a 6-4 split then it's similar to the 4-6 split, we'd probably get a 7-6.

Conclusion: We should lynch in the smaller group.

Counterpoint: The cop group is scummy as fuck given the 3 N1 claims. Keep in mind that Marioscum and ikascum would've had no way to know that Marcrell's slot would claim N1 cop, so they're going into this knowing that they'd be confirmed later on (given the original investigate each other plan). But then NM claimed seemingly knowing that he wouldn't get protected. Personally I think we should have the cops investigate in a triangle, with NM copping the towniest one. YHAI -> Mario -> NM. Have YHAI protected by wgeurts and let Reubus decide between the other 2.

I think we have a 5-5 split going on.

Regardless we need to shut up about setup spec and get to scumhunting in the remaining pool, unless anyone honestly believes all of the scum are in the N1 claims.

[Mathdino]

pistachion is town but he needs to get the hell off a N1 wagon. I doubt scum would be THAT obvious to be trying to lynch a N1 doc.

Since I'm not willing to lynch Fromage or insanity, we have a set of [Soft spoken, kyndy, Metal, SC].

All these wagons are shit. Remember though, if we admit that all the scum didn't just claim N1 as a gigantic gambit, we're forced to admit that someone in that set or someone in [Mathdino, Fromage, insanity, pistachion] is scum. I don't like this.

I've been staying off the SC wagon because I wanted to watch it but it's kinda weirding me out how it hasn't gained any steam. In fact NO wagon has gained much steam, probably because everyone's scumreads are currently unlynchable. The question on SC is whether that means his scumbuddies aren't voting for him (which would make YHAI town) or scum are afraid to jump on his wagon.

I want to hear why SS is town from whoever said that.

Addendum: I never realised kyndy was the person whose play I commented on in Modern Trio, lol.

[Mathdino]

FFS. Just noticed SS is replacing out from looking at the ISO. Whatever, your case isn't terrible, let's see what the replacement says.

UNVOTE:

I have no one to lynch. I legitimately have no one to lynch. I hate this BS of the unlynchables being full of scum.

Just gonna sheep insanity until we get replacements for SC and SS.

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Everyone voting NM, wgeurts, and SC should sheep me. I think it's clear at this point that SC's play is not indicative of alignment and is just gonna get them kicked out.

[Mathdino]

I will laugh my ass off if this is the real setup

I need thoughts on wether scum would say this, as it may potentially be a town slip although I doubt it.

It's not. And ever since I started faking my own setup spec and whoops-I-did-not-read-the-setup to get towncred from a "townslip" as scum, I'm not really trusting townslips based on the setup anymore.

Just because I found it funny, will say that that was a multiball game and I actually got shot by the opposing team for being too obviously town after the slip and rest of my play

Edit: YAY

VOTE: Persivul

[Mathdino]

I swear to god, if Persivul claims cop here, I'm going to have some serious issues...

[Mathdino]

@Fromage:
1. I've hydraed with friends I've brought into the game before. Usually I'm in the games for the sole purpose of hydraing. What I think happened is one or more of them lost interest and now the entire group isn't that into the game anymore. It's a lot of work keeping up a 3 headed hydra.
I think we can certainly use the posts they DID make, but it's a very low-information lynch.

2. Yeah sure. [Mathdino, insanity, Fromage] are my top town list. We're obviously not lynching [Mario, wgeurts, Reubus, NM, YHAI] because N1 claims. Pistachion is town because he keeps trying to lynch an N1 claimer, basically pants-on-head type town. kyndy is town because townvibes and I don't expect she could fake her play this game as scum.

That leaves SC, SS, and Metal. 2 of which were probably gonna be replaced when I made that post. And I like insanity.

Lemme make this clear. Any vote on a player who clearly completely flaked (aka not active lurking), or a vote on an N1 claimer, is a useless vote. We need to start wagoning to give this game some substance.

[Mathdino]

Yeah I'm not a fan of him either but there's a snowball's chance in hell you'll find me willing to destroy information we might get from possible investigations. If we had 3 doctors, yeah sure I'd lynch a doc but definitely not 3 cops.

and yes, I know that means one of them is ALMOST DEFINITELY scum. So what if we just democratically agree on which one to not protect? Then have them investigate in an agreed triangle.

Also even if wgeurts hadn't stated a pressure vote, it's not like a N1 claimer is gonna get lynched anyway so it's still kind of useless.

Pick someone else, Fromage. I'm not willing to risk this.

[Mathdino]

@Fromage:

Do you agree that not ALL the scum are claiming N1? If not, then we no lynch. If you do agree, then who are your top scumreads in the actual reasonable lynchpool? That being:

Mathdino
insanity
kyndy
pistachion
MetalCyanide
Soft's slot
SC's slot

[Mathdino]

I'm getting kinda annoyed at how people on both sides of the aisle in terms of whether they want to massclaim, seem to think

1a. That setup speccing replaces actual scumhunting.
1b. That EVERYONE thinks setup speccing replaces actual scumhunting (see what wgeurts said)

2. That we can actually determine people's alignment based on whether they friggin agree or disagree with you on setup spec.

Does anyone here really think scum would blatantly make up an argument that their town-selves wouldn't normally believe, just to benefit themselves in terms of setup breaking? There are clearly town players on both sides of the argument. Any one of us can give an opinion on which strategy (claim or no claim, what kind of claim) helps more but the very fact that we're arguing means we can't come up with a definitive answer for what's more helpful for town or scum. So do you really think scum would get together and start arguing for the OBJECTIVELY worse plan?

Look, my point is, this shit isn't alignment indicative, stop reading people for what they want and start reading people by their tones. I really doubt at this point that anyone is arguing in a way that they wouldn't usually do as town, and in all likelihood the scum are totally for the massclaiming strategy anyway.

kyndy isn't town or scum for being unsure on the massclaim. IMO she's town because her tone is EXTREMELY difficult to fake.
insanity isn't town or scum for giving thoughts on nuances of massclaim. IMO she's town because her questions and debating don't make sense from a scum perspective.
Fromage isn't town or scum for being the town leader of massclaiming.
NM isn't town or scum for resisting the massclaim.

So to Fromage and Persivul and wgeurts and Mario and whoever else seems to think we can generate reads based on OPINIONS, that's like reading people based on their answers to shit in RQS. Oh, you disagree with me on theory? Must be scum every game we play in!

That is all. Will come up with more reads later.

[Mathdino]

Here's what it is: It's

lazy scumhunting.

No thought put into it, just come up with an opinion on the massclaim and start reading people for it. And tbh typing up that rant is starting to make me feel like the people who are doing that most are the scummier ones. I should go back through the thread and look at people doling out townreads on me/insanity/Fromage. Because it's that kind of shit (free townread for thinking about the setup) that makes people who play scum like I do survive for days. Setup spec can be faked and it gives you a TON of towncred.

wgeurts comes to mind first but that's unfortunately exactly what I'd expect from him given his play. Thinking back I'm really not a fan of the instant "okay Math is town" on like page 2. I literally said in my post that I came up with this massclaim mathematics before I even got my role PM. That's how I roll for most open setups. So to all of you thinking I'm town or scum for coming in strong, don't bother.

Jazzmyn's posts so far are the opposite of alignment indicative. Persivul I'm sketchy on but intuition says that the fact that he develops his reads as he goes through people's stuff shows either a very townish mindset or a very improvisational scum one. Would go with town for now.

This is all at a standstill until we get all our replacements. Would be voting Metal right now otherwise.
UNVOTE:

[Mathdino]

Tells from people's oppinions aren't strong ones, however I do believe that certain stances support a certain alignment's mindset than others. They're however far from enough to build a read upon on their own, but that doesn't mean you should exclude them from a case/explanation when other reasons point to someone being scum/town.

Did not see this post when I made the above. But see above post. I formed my opinions about this game before I got my PM. And I'm quite confident that most of the players here would take the same SORT of approach to the "everyone else is massclaiming omg" scenario regardless of their alignment. What would change would be their tone. Their emotions. Their level of input and effort into whatever approach they take. That's what I'm reading people on. I absolutely think people's stances should be excluded from cases. Tbf I'm with whoever thinks that Fromage's case on NM is pretty bad. I don't think it's scummy enough to outweigh my previous townread on him yet though.