Open 615 - Hope Plus One [Game Over: Town wins]

[davesaz]

I didn't expect deadline to be so soon, but will try to make the best of it.

[davesaz]

OK, quick read through complete.
Dictator, BBmolla, TheMan are town side of null.
Creative, Kop give me scum vibes.

We need a

wagon

to get things going.
VOTE: Kop

@MOD: perhaps consider moving the deadline to Saturday, given Thanksgiving?

[davesaz]

Just promise when we get to tomorrow and me and Accountant get NKed that you'll stop being morons and lynch the obvious scum.

Like, the extent to which Skybird is obvious scum is absolutely mind blowing. She's basically claimed scum in a ton of different posts.

How she is alive, I'm completely unable to fathom.

Can you quote some posts and explain the read please?

[davesaz]

Just promise when we get to tomorrow and me and Accountant get NKed that you'll stop being morons and lynch the obvious scum.

Like, the extent to which Skybird is obvious scum is absolutely mind blowing. She's basically claimed scum in a ton of different posts.

How she is alive, I'm completely unable to fathom.

Can you quote some posts and explain the read please?

Reminder -- case please.

My scum reads (Kop and Creative) are legit.
If the deadline stays what it is, there is basically one "working" day left and then a day of many people effectively being V/LA. We're gonna hand scum a no-lynch if we don't get a move on.

[davesaz]

Have you said anything concrete about her or directly asked her anything?
Still waiting for that case...

[davesaz]

You might be town tunneling, but "looking like town tunneling" is also a scum tactic. Hence the need to see what the actual case is. Heck, you might even be right, but yelling about nobody listening to you is not going to convince someone like me.

[davesaz]

I said the read is legit.
What that means is that I believe it.
I make no claim about it being a good read, nor about having an actual case. It's totally gut.

[davesaz]

Meta gut, to be more precise...

[davesaz]

Can't give a reference at this time, for the typical reason that a reference can't be given.

[davesaz]

The lack of focus or follow through to any read looks like scum trawling for a wagon to hide in.

[davesaz]

Has Creative done something town that I didn't notice?

[davesaz]

I still would have liked to hear that actual case, but it's kinda unnecessary now. 350 is scummy enough on face value, and it goes with a pattern.

VOTE: Skybird

[davesaz]

It does go with a pattern, the "scum read everyone who scum reads her" pattern.
I don't see any quotes or explanation of why the posts are scummy. Can you enlighten me?

[davesaz]

Dictator's Case

Spoiler:

Alright, I had a chat with Accountant and we're gonna

VOTE: Skybird

VOTE: TheManWhoSoldTheWorld for having such a long name and of course for OMGUS!

I found it really weird that Skybird says OMGUS with an here. Usually you OMGUS because you're irritated or scumread someone, it's not exactly a happy emotion.

Hi again everyone. I'm sorry I was a bit MIA since the first page, I was out of town and supposed to be back yesterday.

I didn't think I had played with very many people in this game, but looking at the hydra's I see a few familiar names.

UNVOTE: I want to take a closer look at the last couple of pages.

I find taking the time to unvote in general incredibly scummy. The main reason to worry about your vote being down as town is because you're afraid it's leading to a lynch on someone you don't want it to. This is the middle of RVS and I find it extremely bizarre that such a thing would be done in general, leading me to suspect that Skybird is scum who doesn't want to be responsible for pushing a wagon quite yet.

Sinsun, why do you want to drive TheMan insane?

This is just a weird thing to say in general. But the big thing is her questions.

Kim, do you have experience with mafia off-site or IRL?

Note that Kim was defending me here.

P-edit - thanks Kim. Does anyone stand out to you so far?

Absolutely no follow up on that question at all, besides to ask another generic question, which at least with regards to me the answer should be known.

Why do you see Dictator as town? I'm leaning the other way on them.

Then we here hit the nail on the end. Literally the only purpose of this entire line of inquiry was to try to peel off Kim's townread on me.

So why did Skybird unvote me? Why did she approach it in such a roundabout way if that's clearly all she was interested in.

What's the point of the first question, anyway?

Also,

RC, are you seriously telling me to be quiet?

Yes RC, I do remember you from that game. I don't remember you being quite this annoying though.

There's absolutely no force behind this.

Like, "be quiet", really? Not "shut up"? Not some variant of "fuck off"? That's absolutely bizarre and I'd expect if she had as much of an issue with my play as she's claiming to that she'd react a lot more viscerally.

Then the rest of her questions are absolutely not followed up on.

Fire, what do you think of Kop?

Says nothing further about it. Note Kop is looking like a leading wagon here.

Kop, what are your thoughts on Dictator?

Then she asks the person she was ostensibly scumreading what the read on me is?

That's an absolutely bizarre change in the direction of questioning, plus all this "what's your read on X" without pushing anything doesn't come across as coming from town at all.

Thanks. Would have been nice of Dictator to answer instead of brushing me off.

I too read these quotes...

After that, and an argument between the two, Sky said this...

Kop, as much as I would like to scum read Dictator, I have them as town.

Them saying...

Dictator is spewing a bunch of noise. Why wouldn't you want to lynch them?

Is extremely against pattern as it basically passive aggressively accuses Dictator of being scum without doing anything about it themselves.

OK, you have a point of sorts. It's a passive OMGUS vs active. But it is still an OMGUS, and that is sometimes a scumtell.

Dave had you read the full game?

I very clearly said that I did a

quick readthrough

. That means that I did not spend hours on it, take notes as I was going, or spend a lot of deep thought on the interactions which occurred before I replaced in.

[davesaz]

It does go with a pattern, the "scum read everyone who scum reads her" pattern.
I don't see any quotes or explanation of why the posts are scummy. Can you enlighten me?

Why are you voting someone and asking people to explain why the person you're voting is scummy?

I want to know if the things they see are the same as what I see, or different. If they are seeing different things that I agree are also scummy, it makes the case better.
If the flip turns up town, it's nice to be able to understand the case before that flip to capture the motivation of the wagon.

[davesaz]

My vote stated a reason. It is a scum read.

[davesaz]

@mod: prods due?

[davesaz]

I believe I've seen discussion to the effect that the setup is designed specifically so that massclaim is bad for town.

[davesaz]

Several possible reasons for a kill: eliminate someone town is reading as town, eliminate a threat, target a presumed PR, frame someone, confuse town.
TBH I'll need to reread most of d1. I got nothing really strong yet.

[davesaz]

I think I might just sheep Firebird

Firebird isn't in the game, did you mean Skybird?

[davesaz]

Also I need to check but I got an eye for BB, Rave, and Kop as a scum team.

I would like to hear more on why you think this.
Both BB and Kop are pinging me as town.

Right now I am feeling Skybird and EP are scum, but I feel like I am just conf biasing myself.
Not sure on Kop though and feel like Kop is tryign to buddy me.

-Fire

Was this the same head being unsure on Kop in adjacent posts, or two heads?

[davesaz]

I'm still thinking Kop and Creative look scummy. Skybird has made some townish posts and I'm not interested in lynching her any more.
Also still interested in knowing why Fostering Rave Bird thought I was scummy for scumreading Creative.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Kop

[davesaz]

Do you think Kop is town, or you just don't like the votes?
Why Skybird and not someone else who is more likely to be scum?

[davesaz]

My approach to all softs in this setup is to act on them quietly while not focusing any attention on them. That seems to me to be the best play for town.
Best way to play the cop is to weakly defend innos (soft them only when necessary) and hard claim guilties.

I want to see BBMolla's response.

[davesaz]

Agree, if cop can lynch a guilty without claiming that's even better.

TheMan trying to say that Skybird had softed also pings me. You don't point out things like that when town.

[davesaz]

@MOD: VC please! And 2nd the request for prods as well

[davesaz]

@MOD: Sinsun1 hasn't been on site since Nov 23, suggest replacement. Creative hasn't posted for 5 days.

[davesaz]

Ugh, 7 days to go and major game stall.

Skybird - town
Fostering Rave Bird - null
Sinsun1 - null
BBmolla - weak town
Errantparabola - town
Wanderer-nl - weak town
Kop - weak scum trending toward null
TheManWhoSoldTheWorld - weak town trending toward scum
Creative - weak scum
pignash - null, needs reread
Kim - null leaning town

FRB and pignash null primarily because I don't remember what I thought.
Sinsun null because the most recent post is so old.

Yeah, I know it's brief. Middle of the work day.

[davesaz]

Ugh, 7 days to go and major game stall.

Skybird - town
Fostering Rave Bird - null
Sinsun1 - null
BBmolla - weak town
Errantparabola - town
Wanderer-nl - weak town
Kop - weak scum trending toward null
TheManWhoSoldTheWorld - weak town trending toward scum
Creative - weak scum
pignash - null, needs reread
Kim - null leaning town

FRB and pignash null primarily because I don't remember what I thought.
Sinsun null because the most recent post is so old.

Yeah, I know it's brief. Middle of the work day.

Its posts like this that make me question if Davesaz town.
Look, no strong opinions on ANYONE. It all looks like it could go either way.

-Fire

That's just the thing that never ceases to amaze me. We're going to get along a lot better when you realize I don't pull stuff out my ass, I wait till something concrete comes along. I don't have a fucking clue who is scum. If I did know, I'd be scum. There are two strong reads here, the two I'm reading as town without a weak modifier.

After we have some flips I'll be able to do a lot more.

[davesaz]

I prodded them already.

Did you act on the request in 591?

[davesaz]

Is anyone vehemently opposed to a wanderer lynch?
dave, if you want flips are you fine with lynching a weak town?
If we have another nolynch today we basically lose the game.

What's the case on wanderer?

[davesaz]

Not quite sure what 'beep boop' means...

+1

[davesaz]

Funny what you can find when you thread back from a post that someone points out.

Defending Bowie here while still distancing.
...
He also had no thoughts on how Bowie had been acting at the time he unvoted.

This confused me but I forgot to ask, who's Bowie?

[davesaz]

Me too. I'll be the first to admit that I'm part of the problem because my style is very interrupt driven in RL.
Maybe we should just go ahead and lynch Kop. TBH I don't remember where my vote is, probably already there, but for good measure
VOTE: Kop

[davesaz]

Davesaz - Same as Pignash, he hasn't contributed to anything since start of day two, other than go after me.

This is grade A bullshit. I was actually ready to move off of you, until you started going after BBMolla and then bringing up Skybird. As I said before, if someone softs in this setup, the only town move is to ignore it. I have been actively hunting scum, by

not

participating in the "which one is lying" debate and watching out for who does try to push that. You aren't the only one I have my eyes on, but we have limited time.

Even if you're town, which I seriously doubt, I strongly believe your flip is the most revealing one we can get today.

[davesaz]

My reads were in 595.

[davesaz]

I'm actually having more issues with dave's vote then with pignash's but I don't think there's enough time left in this day to talk about it so I'm saving that.

Why do you have a problem with my vote? I think you failed to notice that my vote was already on Kop, days ago. I revoted for emphasis.

[davesaz]

Looking for replacements for Creative and Sinsun1

How are you doing this without posting anything in the replacement thread ?

[davesaz]

That's nice, would help if you posted a case. And some reads please.

[davesaz]

uhm, there's a couple of scumreads there from individual posts. What confuses you so?

You posted quotes from 4-5 players including your own slot, and voted for one of the players you quoted.
The reason given was "This is not a post you want to see on page 5. Lol". Not what I would consider a case. A case has analysis on what you think it means.

I often miss votes that are merely bolded. On the skin I use it doesn't show up very much compared to the reverse text from the vote tags.

[davesaz]

Because unlike you, there are some people in the game who know that me saying I don't have good reads is a pretty good indicator that I'm town.

[davesaz]

i will be posting in like a few hours friends!

BTW this is my gut read on Creative from d1 -- being proactively defensive / abnormally aware / placating about his posting pattern, when nobody seemed to care about it. Vaguely matches a previous scum game.

[davesaz]

Except my probable cop report which I'll bring up another day.

You are claiming cop?

VOTE: BBMolla

This game has too much scum

Pay close attention to how people acted beyond this point. IMO the ones who wanted to beat it to death are more likely to be scum, and the ones who wanted to avoid talking about it are town.

[davesaz]

@Mykonium, you asked about the Kop wagon. Look at 469 followed by this sequence.

It makes me town read FRB for that reason. If he was scum, he could have easily bagged a free lynch and no backlash from it since it looked it was going that way. Which prompts me to believe that dictator could be right about Skybird. She happily switched to me and now she is voting for someone that soft claimed cop which to me does not make an ounce of sense. It obviously has not been countered yet.

VOTE: Skybird

I am going to look through the other voters to see where there is consistencies. I know pignash and EP would be the next port of calls since I am not digging them either.

VOTE: Kop you're wrong, but I'm not outing people yet.

[davesaz]

dave is town as fuck by the by

Just because he saw a cop softclaim and took it for a cop softclaim?

Lets not, molla. That's a bit too easy.

Nope, that's not the reason. I'd prefer not to help scum any more than they have already been helped, so you're gonna have to read between the lines if you want the truth.

[davesaz]

Maybe, no, definitely no, definitely no.

[davesaz]

Kop's reaction is not to Molla, it is to someone else. And it's a scum reaction. Unless it's complete derp, and I don't know if Kop would derp in that way.

I could get behind Wanderer if necessary.

[davesaz]

This game is going in annoying spurts of activity. Could just be it's the end of 1st semester / beginning of holidays, but it's making it hard to get anything done.

[davesaz]

Here's what I got for an unofficial VC, but it's dependent on the previous one being correct.

Kop : 6 - Klingon, Wanderer, Frozen Angel, davesaz, BBmolla, pignash
BBmolla : 2 - TheMan, Kop
Wanderer : 3 - ErrantParabola, myko, SkyBird

NV: Phantom

[davesaz]

What was that about the Kop wagon being too easy with no counter?

I don't want to switch at this point and make a lynch even harder.

[davesaz]

Umm, that's a bit hypocritical given you're off the wagon too.

[davesaz]

With his insistence day two that we should just lynch kop because we were going to d1 as well, I'm also very interested in lynching dave again.

Show me any post where I referred to the d1 lynch with respect to the d2? I'm pretty sure you have me mixed up with someone else.
There is a big difference between continuing to think someone is scummy, and linking that to the previous day's activity.

[davesaz]

At the end there, I would have swapped to Wanderer but we needed something like 3 votes to change (going from memory) with no time to be certain it would happen.
Really didn't want a NL.

[davesaz]

VOTE: KC
I thought the slot was scummy too.

[davesaz]

Docs only know people who

may

be town, since one of them protected someone who was not targeted on each night. Think it's pretty lucky they didn't double up.
Look at how I responded to the claims. You have to be smoking something to think that's scum.
I have Skybird, EP, myself as the only sure clears. Waiting on a result to possibly get a 4th.

I would have mykonian as most likely scum though 869 feels like he's truly expecting to be cleared. But I don't like FA's immediate response to his first post of the day.

Koggs and Pignash are top suspects.

[davesaz]

You just seemed to accept myko as town really fast, like maybe you already knew it. It isn't really a serious suspicion, just struck me as odd.
If he was checked and cleared then fine, if not then we'll use whatever result and go from there.

[davesaz]

Regarding massclaim, I think it's too early. Protects are not clears because there are 2 protects per night and only one of them can actually be the target. From each townie's perspective, 4 known clears -- Sky, 2 clears at most, and themselves. Each townie will be left with choosing 2 scum from 6 people. That's better odds than choosing 2 scum from 10, but not good enough to justify outing the docs. I think we try to lynch scum, and if all PRs are alive tomorrow then we're probably in claim territory.

Pedit: You completely misread what I wrote. I said I wasn't sure about your

initial

response. It was perplexing that you would straight away ask if he was town, as though you bought right into his assumption that he would be checked.

Your posts after that point are fine, and your most recent one actually help me sort you stronger as town though I can't say why due to rules.

[davesaz]

VOTE: mykonian
I still think remaining scum is either Pignash or koggs. BBmolla 3rd choice but IMO very unlikely.

[davesaz]

I'm content to wait for that too.

[davesaz]

That's L-1. Hammer intent.

Though read on because we might have a better move as town.

I'll grant that I'm unknown to you, even though I'm one of the first who noticed Sky and worked so hard early on to try to keep it secret.
Known: Sky, FA, Koggs, EP vs. unknown: pignash, dave, BBmolla, PhantomCobalt.

4v4 lynch unknown. 4v3
4v3 kill known 3v3
3v3 lynch unknown 3v2
3v2 kill known 2v2 mylo

If Pignash isn't scum, my money is on BBMolla. I now see the soft as a scum way to try to draw out the cop and hope that the 2 docs nullify protection. I hadn't been sure of that before because I thought he could have been a doc trying to get the cop to react so we'd know who to protect. In the end I'd rather risk losing to a lurker than to a gambiteer.

If we had the votes to swing a lynch on BBMolla today, it would be a better move.

[davesaz]

I've been playing too many blitz games lately. We have 11 days if we choose to use them.
I'm gonna let this sit for at least a couple days. I think we have scum in an impossible situation. If it's Molla he's on the wagon and can't hammer, and has no plausible alternative wagon.

[davesaz]

Why do people in general think it's me if not Pignash?

Because it's difficult if not impossible to think of a town motivation for softing cop in this setup when you aren't either cop or doc.
The only likely outcome is exactly what happened, the cop gets outed. We were lucky to have a guilty result or it might be lost instead of almost won.
I would have been onboard for lynching you immediately if it hadn't been possible at the time that you were trying the "doc trying to find the cop to protect" scenario.

[davesaz]

Should we lynch PC first? Being active elsewhere can indicate scum over lurker.

[davesaz]

Votecount

With 8 players alive, it takes 5 to lynch

pignash: 3 - BBmolla, Errantparabola, Frozen Angel
BBmolla: 1 - Koggz


Not voting: TheManWhoSoldTheWorld, Skybird, pignash, PhantomCobalt, davesaz

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-01-07 16:50:00)

@MOD: My vote is on pignash, and TheManWhoSoldTheWorld was killed last night.

[davesaz]

Please identify said associatives.

[davesaz]

Don't jump to conclusions that the catchup is town.

[davesaz]

OK, quick read through complete.
Dictator, BBmolla, TheMan are town side of null.
Creative, Kop give me scum vibes.

First post with substance, 4/5 correct reads.
lol at Mykonian calling me bad in scumchat
I think Skybird made great choices of who to cop, and docs did well protecting

Jeanne did OK modding, it's tough around holidays.