Open 631 - Diffusion of Power (Over)

[Rhaegar]

Hi guys. Replacing in. This is an alt account. Haven't played for about a year or so.

VOTE: Snarkysnowman

Have good reason to believe he is scum. More detail is below in the spoiler. This is the summary.

1. At the opening of the game he admits that shotty is an easy lynch and puts a vote on him. That, by itself, isn't bad, you have to vote for something at the beginning. What bothers me is that even with this knowledge, he then jumps on a shotty wagon in actually seriousness in post 36. If Snowman is as certain of shotty's meta of early lynches, you would think that he would be more cautious about a bandwagon on him, but he is not. That strikes me as odd.

2. post 47. In it he shamelessly eggs on an already bad post by Killthestory along with trying to buddy up to him. Again, with his knowledge of shotty's meta this seems suspicious.

3. post 97. Snowman says that he thinks there is a shotty/almost scumteam. But he moves his vote from shotty to almost. This strikes me as also very disingenuous. If you think two people are scum, why take your vote off the one with a bandwagon and place it onto the one without a bandwagon? That makes literally no sense from a town perspective of someone who genuinely thinks shotty is scum. Pushing a wagon without placing your vote on it is scummy as hell.

Shotty can be a sarcastic asshole sometimes. I know, cause I've played with him before a long time back. That's a neutral tell with him. I'd be more suspicious if he wasn't acting like this.

His behavior isn't indicative of his alignment.

What does interested me, however, is the people jumping on his bandwagon right away. Shotty is an easy lynch. I can't say I'd personally shed a tear if he was given the noose myself. But I do think there was some opportunism with the votes on his bandwagon.

There are always players who tend to be easy lynches, sometimes due to the fact that they may not always conform to the norms of play and therefor say/do things that would otherwise be scummy in the context of a normal player. I think those are good bandwagons to look at for scum, as mafia can get away with the "well he shoudln't have acted scum if he didn't want to get lynched" as their get-out-of-lynch-responsibility-card afterward.

I took a few years off,

but used to be well know and to some widely disliked.

Ain't that the truth.

[Rhaegar]

More thoughts:

I like killthestory. Initial impression was bad with the vote on the shotty wagon (post 40). But he redeemed himself nicely, by putting a vote on snarky when snarky tried to shamelessly buddy up to him a few posts later (post 46). It would be nice if he would put his money where his mouth is and vote for snarky though.

This vote is also a bad one by KainTepes (post 52). Seeing how things are going it should have been obvious at this point that the Shotty bandwagon was a bit shoddy (haha ha.. ha...).

Lowell vote on shotty is also a bad one (post 61). I can't help but think some of this might be a lackadaisical playstile. It's a lot easier to read people who take this more seriously... but that's a whole separate thread. Not sold on lynching him at the moment. That could change.

Kop, I like the way you think (post 71).

This post by Almost also bugs me (post 78). It's entirely insubstantial. One scumtell I like is that scum will often try to drive or enter discussion without actually taking any position. It looks like he is being a productive, helpful townie, when actually he is avoiding taking any hard stances at the moment.

[Rhaegar]

What's hard to get? I'm lobbying you to vote the person I actually think is scum rather than someone I don't think is scum?

Anyway.

Took the time to read through some of Lowell's most recent games. Only found town ones, but his play style appeared similar to here. He has good opinions about mafia theory and seems to follow them as town. That to me is key. Town players should by instinct be genuinely pursing scum, not making up bullshit reasons to do so.

I also really like (post 87). I disagree with the premise, but I don't disagree that he sincerely holds it and from that standpoint it explains his vote on shotty rather well.

Lowell is town in my opinion. I won't be joining that wagon.

[Rhaegar]

Which post was that?

[Rhaegar]

@KTS

I found Lowell's explanation to be sufficient, and I think he is town because of it. What do you think about post 87?

Nope. Jumping on wagons is awesome. Townread on snarky.

Scum can jump on wagons, no town read on snarky.

It is my experience that you are wrong. Scum play like conservative, hyper-sensitive babies. Town are aggressive and awesome.

[Rhaegar]

I'm null on shotty. I want more info first.

He's a hard read, but an easy lynch, if you know what I mean. His playstyle does come across as scummy, but this is how he plays. One has to adjust for someone's playstyle when attempting to read them. I see a lot of people here who aren't doing that, and it worries me.

[Rhaegar]

It's funny how we can both see that post and come to completely different conclusions.

[Rhaegar]

That's very interesting. Keeping your options open, huh?

Not sure what your trying to imply. (Actually I know what you're trying to imply, but you really should just say it rather than imply it if that is what you are thinking, but I digress.) I've given solid reads on 2 people (I've got thoughts on others, but nothing that concrete yet). I've also only been in the game for a couple hours. Do you have reads on everyone yet?

his post is wrong. scum and town dont have linear mindsets when they play.

i play aggressive as scum. i play more passive as town. i know plenty of others who do the same. linear thinking in mafia leads to ultimate demise.

You are completely right that he is wrong. But you know what, that doesn't matter.

Wrong doesn't equal scum.

Believe it or not, but town can actually hold mafia theories that are incorrect. That makes them poor players, but it doesn't make them scum.

There is a much better test. Which is genuineness. Town acts genuinely. They are trying to catch scum and using their methods to do so. They believe (or should believe) in what they are doing. Scum has to fake doing that and therefor risks being ungenuine (I know that isn't a word) and insincere.

Lowell, from his play this game seems genuine in this short sample size, which is why I am reading him as town.

[Rhaegar]

@DUPIN

Well, its good to know what you actually think : ). You should do that more often.

I'm defending shotty because I've played with him at least 5-6 times before, if not more. I've seen him lynched day 1 as town too many damn times to fall for that. And in all fairness, I've been guilty of getting him lynched day 1 a couple of those times. It's a lesson I've learned, and I have no interest in making the same mistake again. It's an easy wagon for scum to push, which is why I think there is scum on it.

Because of his playstyle he is a hard player to accurately read, which is why I reserve the right to do that at a later point. I concede that he could be scum, but I contend that his general behavior and attitude so far fits with both his town and scum play and therefor isn't useful in getting a read on him.

[Rhaegar]

In case it isn't obvious, I'm 99% sure there is at least one mafia between Shotty and Rhaegar.

Boys and girls, this here quote is an example of setting up lynches. It's a common scum tactit in which someone attempts to justify two back-to-back lynches and get away with the first mislynch. And yes, I used the word mislynch, does that mean I think/know shotty is town? Of course not, talking theory right here.

Anyway, I'm going to file this quote away for the records.

@Rhaegar 132 does this seem not genuine to you?

Don't think you quite get my point about genuineness. No, that post doesn't bother me. Some of the later stuff, however, does.

Rhea far is town. Town lean on Lowell just because I was pressuring him, but my gut said he was town. Rhaegar's explanations were also satisfactory, and it helped in his case. Well done.

First, it's Rhaegar (I know, spellcheck likes to screw with it ). Secondly, when did this, "oh, I was just pressuring lowell but thought he was town" stuff come up. You certainly had me sold on you actually believing lowell was scum.

Also self meta is fucking annoying. Stop using it.

As also pointed out by snarky, why use it then?

The problem I have with Rhaegar is that he is basing his reads around Shotty being town,

I'm basing them on shotty being an easy lynch, and therefor a target for scum. I have not doubt that if shotty did happen to be scum (25 percent chance) that a partner or two would bus the hell out of him.

Shotty is a bad player. Lazy townies and devious scum are the people going after him. I'm not trying to say I have a read on him either way, I'm just saying that his wagon is one where scum would likely congregate regardless of his alignment.

Oh, and then there is this quote that I feel I should emphasize again.

Shotty is an easy lynch. I can't say I'd personally shed a tear if he was given the noose myself.

no shit shotty's an easy mislynch, i could post a single time in this game and could probably lynch him.

Tell me more about this "mislynch"?

Good catch lowell, not sure how I missed that. Definitely see how that could be a scumslip.

[Rhaegar]

Questions:

@killthestory: You suddenly swapped to saying lowell is town, why is your vote still on him?

@Snarkysnowman: Why did you take your vote off of shotty, who you were/are calling scum, to put it on Almost. The shotty wagon still had momentum, and the almost wagon had none. It seems odd that you would abandon a good wagon on one scumspect, to place a vote on a nonexistant wagon of another scumspect.

@Duppin: Why do you believe that one of me or Shotty must be scum? Why isn't it possible for us to both be town? How is that scenario unrealistic in your mind?

[Rhaegar]

Questions:
@Snarkysnowman: Why did you take your vote off of shotty, who you were/are calling scum, to put it on Almost. The shotty wagon still had momentum, and the almost wagon had none. It seems odd that you would abandon a good wagon on one scumspect, to place a vote on a nonexistant wagon of another scumspect.

The reason I voted shotty in the first place was because he basically claimed scum. Pretty sure it was a joke, and it fits with his meta from what I've read, but I'm reading both KTS and Almost as more scummy than shotty. He's still on my radar, but I think there are better options at the moment.

This is a revisionist history. Here's what happened.

Snarky does do a joke RVS vote right away on Shotty (post 12) in it he acknowledges the predilection this site has for quick shotty lynches. However, he quickly removes his vote for another one I assume is a joke on pisskop (post 21).

Snarky returns to vote for Shotty and makes a statement that "shotty did just kinda claim scum" (post 36). Several posts later, killthestory refers to shotty's play as being "still scummy as fuck" (post 46). Now, snarky immediately makes a post consisting of that quote (post 47), making it obvious that he agrees with the sentiment that Shotty is scum.

However, in Snarky's next post, he calls an "Almost / Shotty" scum team and swaps his vote over to Almost (post 97).

Therein lies the problem.

You see, if you think two players are a scum team what makes more sense? Keeping your vote on the player who already has a bandwagon of four people including yourself. OR, swapping your vote over to someone who has non one else voting him.

Snarky's action in post 97 do not show a town mindset. Town wants to lynch scum. Town does not name two people as scum and then jump off the much larger bandwagon onto a nonexistant one without a damn good reason for doing so. This is fishy as heck.

So, I'll ask again.

Snarky, how do you explain this sequence of events? Particularly, why you did what you did in post 97?

[Rhaegar]

Um, I don' t see a post 137 by you. Care to try that again?

[Rhaegar]

Somehow I think that post wasn't addressed to me : )

[Rhaegar]

[134] was my first serious post of this game. Like I said, 97, I was more interested in Almost in regards to interaction with shotty. Again, I'm not sure I actually believe shotty is actually scum given his meta and what I've read of him.

It's going to be really hard for someone to convince me to move my vote right now

[Rhaegar]

Autti, I know. KTS is kissing my ass and it is making me just as uncomfortable as you. That can be dealt with later. I wanna see this happen.

[Rhaegar]

TMI

[Rhaegar]

On lunch break, there are a lot of posts I want to make, but so little time to do it. I'll see what I can get to.

@Dubbin.

I feel like we are talking passed each other on the Shotty thing. Let me see if I can explain this better.

If Adam was trying to lynch Steve because everyone whose name starts with "S" must be scum, I would say that is a dumbass idea. My going against that lynch wouldn't be because I thought Steve was town, it would be because the premise behind the lynch was fucking stupid.

It's the same with Shotty. People are trying to lynch him because he is a poor player. I think that is a dumbass idea and therefor opposed the lynch. My pointing out how the case against him was stupid doesn't mean I think he is town. After all, it is more than possible to make a stupid case against scum and get lucky. The premise behind a Shotty lynch was bad based on my experience so I worked to stop it.

Let me put it this way:

Shotty is a bad player. Bad players are easy targets for lynches regardless of their alignment and therefor get targeted by scum early on. I chose to examine the Shotty wagon to see if there was anyone suspicious on it. I did not call everyone who voted Shotty scum, simply that it would be good to see if any of them did anything scummy when they voted Shotty. That is how I ended up with my scum read on Snowman, which I have already thoroughly detailed.

Look, in my past life (my main account) I played with Shotty enough to know that a day one lynch would be stupid. As town, I led a myslynch on him. I felt like a dumbass afterword for going after the easy target rather than doing more serious scum hunting. As scum, I helped quietly egg on a Shotty mislynch in a later game, which was easy, and once he was lynched everyone felt that he deserved it even though he flipped town so there wasn't much suspicion on the wagon.

So in conclusion, stop trying to say I am reading Shotty as town, or that a town read is what is predicating my actions regarding the players voting him. That is not true, and I think I've explained that fairly explicitly now.

[Rhaegar]

In case it isn't obvious, I'm 99% sure there is at least one mafia between Shotty and Rhaegar.

@Duppin: Why do you believe that one of me or Shotty must be scum? Why isn't it possible for us to both be town? How is that scenario unrealistic in your mind?

It is obviously possible both of you are town, I'm not sure why you think that scenario is "unrealistic" in your mind.

Care to explain the discrepancy here?

[Rhaegar]

Boys and girls, this here quote is an example of setting up lynches. It's a common scum tactit in which someone attempts to justify two back-to-back lynches and get away with the first mislynch. And yes, I used the word mislynch, does that mean I think/know shotty is town? Of course not, talking theory right here.

I honestly don't think this makes much sense. How am I setting up anything? This wouldn't even work as it would be a terrible play.
And to be fair I don't even see how I am trying to set up anything. I find both of you suspicious and I believe there is at least one scum between the two of you.

It's an easy setup. You simply get one of the pair lynched and "whoops, they flipped town, that means the other guy must be scum instead, my bad." I've seen that play too many times not to call it out. It's an odd form of guilt by association, and it is poor scum hunting in my mind. I don't mind looking at associations after the fact, that is essential, but creating them beforehand like this is something I've seen scum do a lot. Yes, town does it as well, but It doesn't usually end well.

KTS is scum, but I'd policy-lynch him anyway at this point.

Under what policy?

Man you must be another VI Town.

PLing is for plebians who can't scumread.

I mean I've already found scum in Snarky, but everyone's too focused on stupid shit.

Don't agree with the tone, but the bolded part is very true.

Rhaegar is defending Shotty by pushing scum on the people voting on him. That is also how he is defending him.

No, I'm defending him by pointing out his meta so that people can do a better job of scumhunting.

I've only called out one of the people who voted shotty as scum.

Can you stop pressuring the VI? I

t does us no good since his signals are extremely hard to read unless you have extensive past experience with the lad.

I.honestly don't like all the lurkers. Way too many of them.

Hypocrisy, thy name is killthestory.

[Rhaegar]

Overlooking him the whole game because of not wanting to mistakenly mislynch an easy lynch would be a mistake, and I will be suspicious of people who use the easy mislynch argument about him in the future. But for day 1, let's hold off.

That's been my whole point. I have no objection to lynching him later, but there needs to be an actually case with solid reasons behind it (the same standard that should be applied to any lynch). Not, OMG he such a bad player burn him at the stake!!! stuff that was going on when I entered the thread Ok, that was an exaggeration, but my point still stands.

[Rhaegar]

What kind of question is this? This is mafia, obviously it is possible both of you are town but at the moment I do not believe that to be the case.

When you say that you are 99 percent sure one of two people is scum, it does seem like backtracking to then say that it is of course possible that we are both town, when that possibility (as defined in the post) is at 1 percent, according to you. That's all.

[Rhaegar]

Yes you've explained why you did what you did and I do understand what you're saying but it doesn't change my opinion.

I still think you went way too hard in your defense of him only later to kind of backtrack claiming he was a null read

and you'd be okay with lynching him later (don't get me wrong, I know that'd obviously depend on how the game goes).

He's been null all along. There's been no backtracking on my part on that point.

See the bolded parts of my first post.

Shotty can be a sarcastic asshole sometimes. I know, cause I've played with him before a long time back.

That's a neutral tell with him

. I'd be more suspicious if he wasn't acting like this.

His behavior isn't indicative of his alignment.

What does interested me, however, is the people jumping on his bandwagon right away. Shotty is an easy lynch.

I can't say I'd personally shed a tear if he was given the noose myself.

But I do think there was some opportunism with the votes on his bandwagon.

And this next post was literally made like an hour later, or two-and-a-half hours of me being into the game.

I'm null on shotty. I want more info first.

I really fail to see where I backtracked on this point.

[Rhaegar]

Meh, that's not entirely true. Sure you've only voted on SnarkySnowman so far for voting on Shotty, but you've called out everyone else although it hasn't been as direct.
In #116 you called pretty much every single vote on him bad. You also later implied there were opportunistic votes on his train. In general your overall attitude has been that scum would vote for him because he is an easy mislynch.

This is also what I have been pointing out the whole time. My point was that I thought it was fairly suspicious that you chose to call out pretty much everyone indirectly for voting on Shotty and implied it was a scum train even though you weren't actually townreading Shotty yourself.

You're right, partially. Yes, I did say that I didn't like most of the votes on Shotty, but I also didn't call all those players scum, because town can make bad votes as well, and, Shotty is a bad player so he will attract votes. Instead, I looked at the context of all the votes and decided that Snarkysnowman was the person that seemed scumimest with this actions. I didn't assume that his entire wagon was scum because that would just be plain silly.

Also, I don't need a town read on one player to call the player who is voting him scum. Snarky isn't scum because he voted shotty. Snarky is scum because of

how

he voted shotty (and how he moved his vote afterward).

[Rhaegar]

SnarkySnowman: Nothing suspicious about the RVS vote. Some people are bothered with the second vote. I can understand why it seems a bit strange (Shotty's first response was in #24, Snarky responded to it in #25 yet didn't vote on him. Snarky first voted on him in #36, after chilledtea had voted.)
His vote did bother me a little at first but that was because I assumed he voted on Shotty because of his post #24 (in that case it is indeed very suspicious he didn't vote until someone else).
It does however seem like he did not vote for him because of that but because of Shotty's response to chilledtea's vote. (In #24 Shotty asked Snarky to explain his vote and in #25 asked which vote he was talking about. Overall I get the impresison that Snarky didn't really care that much about Shotty first post. When Snarky voted on Shotty in #36 he was also (at least that is what it seems like) referring to Shotty's posts to chilledtea. His vote doesn't seem suspicious to me).

Unfortunately Snarky hasn't really posted that much content yet, so I would like to hear more from him. I can honestly understand why some people would want to pressure him but I really do not think there is anything suspicious about his votes. In fact his lack of response to the initial votes on him bothers me a little more but oh well.

What are your thoughts on this post in particular. It's the main reason I am voting snowman right now.

I think I smell an Almost / Shotty team.

VOTE: Almost

The issue I have is he abandoned a viable (at the time) Shotty wagon for a nonexistent one, while still calling Shotty scum. The whole sequence there is really off and in my mind doens't show a town mindset.

What do you think?

[Rhaegar]

You backtracked in the sense that

the way you opened you kind of implied that you were townreading Shotty

(at least that was the impression I got, if someone did not get that from your first couple of posts I'd be fairly surprised but maybe it's just me), only later to imply that you'd be okay with a vote on Shotty (I hope you can see why you seem a bit hypocritical with your defense of him).

Um, I kind of implied I was town reading Shotty? Let's take a look at what I actually said at the beginning, and what I have said all game so far.

I'm sorry you are under the impression that I somehow was implying I had a town read on Shotty.

I did not.

In fact, I've been saying the exact opposite the entire game.

Shotty can be a sarcastic asshole sometimes. I know, cause I've played with him before a long time back.

That's a neutral tell with him

. I'd be more suspicious if he wasn't acting like this.

His behavior isn't indicative of his alignment

What does interested me, however, is the people jumping on his bandwagon right away. Shotty is an easy lynch.

I can't say I'd personally shed a tear if he was given the noose myself.

But I do think there was some opportunism with the votes on his bandwagon.

I'm null on shotty.

I want more info first.

Because of his playstyle he is a hard player to accurately read, which is why I reserve the right to do that at a later point. I concede that he could be scum, but

I contend that [shotty's] general behavior and attitude so far fits with both his town and scum play and therefor isn't useful in getting a read on him.

I'm not trying to say I have a read on [shotty] either way,

So in conclusion, stop trying to say I am reading Shotty as town, or that a town read is what is predicating my actions regarding the players voting him. That is not true, and I think I've explained that fairly explicitly now.

@anyone not named dubbin,

from the quotes I've given, does it look like I was trying to say I thought Shotty was town?

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: killstory

Why?

[Rhaegar]

Skimmed through your iso, didn't notice anything where you explained why you think he is scum, care to quote it for me?

[Rhaegar]

I've found that scum, when unmentioned tend to bandwagon and insult people, where as town, while it seems counterintuitive, will tend to stay a bit quieter and either ask a question and wait or try and bring new ideas or information to the table.

I tend to believe that you have to read people based off their playstyle. Different people behave differently. Being an asshole doesn't make someone scum, it just means they are an asshole.

Some people are quieter no matter what, some people like to be in the fray, and some mix it up for no reason whatsoever. I really fail to see why this is a valid reason for voting KTS.

[Rhaegar]

Again I don't like to view reads as an individual thing, everyone is a part in the machine. I

preffer to look at it through a sociological filter and right now due to his behavior, kts is looking like a scummy puzzle piece.

I've been very slow to vote him because with someone who plays like him he may just be awful as a person. I can't say I'm 100% certian but he is my strongest feel right now.

What behavior is making him look like the "scummy puzzle piece?"

[Rhaegar]

Weve got another player acting like hes selling lemonade at the white house and a

third who's putting in so much effort my eyes bleed when I look at this post.

Is this by any chance being directed at me? Just curious.

[Rhaegar]

@duppin, I just don't feel snarky's actions show a town mindset

Glad to see his wagon is gaining steam, I have to work today, but I"ll have more to say this evening.

[Rhaegar]

As to snarkysnowman, this is really all that needs to be said in support of a lynch.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/search.php?a ... 3&sr=posts

[Rhaegar]

I would prefer one more post from him first.

[Rhaegar]

@Snarky

A few questions for your next post:

Who are the scum on your wagon and why are they scum?
Who are town on your wagon and why are they town?
If we don't lynch you, who should we lynch instead and why?
Can you give a better explanation to question I asked you in post 180

Finally, these two quotes again:

I think I smell an Almost / Shotty team.

VOTE: Almost

137 was my first serious post of this game. Like I said, 97, I was more interested in Almost in regards to interaction with shotty. Again, I'm not sure I actually believe shotty is actually scum given his meta and what I've read of him.

You know what they say about lies? The more of them you tell the harder it is to keep your story straight. Do you have a good explanation for what appears to be some pretty blatant contradictions?

[Rhaegar]

People can share nights though from what I understand of the setup, so I'm not sure that actually means much. Yes, I do expect a claim, but I'm having trouble seeing a scenario where I would not want to still lynch him. Either way, let's quash that discussion until we here what he had to say.

[Rhaegar]

UNVOTE: snowman

I don't want our VI to quick hammer.

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: snowman

I'm satisfied with this being the day one lynch.

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: snowman

I'm satisfied with this being the day one lynch.

I'm not. I liked his response, and while it was to little to late, not posting doesn't make someone scum, they may just be board with the game, and town is 99% more likely to get board than scum. I still like KTS as our lynch for today.

The lack of posting isn't what makes him scum in my mind. It didn't help him, but my read is based on the things he has posted.

[Rhaegar]

Almost, if we aren't going to lynch snarky, who should we lynch instead?

[Rhaegar]

Why the sudden change of heart to a no-lynch?

I'm curious, if you feel this way about the setup, why wasn't this brought up earlier?

[Rhaegar]

Cause beginning a discussion on the optimal way to play an open game would seem a lot more appropriate at the beginning of day one, not right when someone has gotten to L-1.

[Rhaegar]

We already know SS is either a Cop, a Doctor or Mafia. Each and every one of us is one of these 3. I challenge you to come up with a case that hold water that merits a lynch of SS based on this fact.

Well, we may as well never lynch anyone because everyone is a potential pr... *rolls eyes*

[Rhaegar]

Any ending to day one besides a lynch is unacceptable.

We need lynches because it gives us information. We have to be able to analyze actual, completed wagons to look for town and scum on them. Not lynching deprives the town of this information, which is vital to scumhunting.

If it were a closed setup with 3 prs, I would feel bad about lynching a pr, but it's not a closed setup, there are 10 weak prs, so I don't feel bad about possibly offing one of them cause the impact is much less significant.

[Rhaegar]

ass, balls, cocksucker, cunt, fuck, motherfucker, piss, shit, tits

I'm sorry, I couldn't resist.

[Rhaegar]

I have a Night 1 action, so let's not lynch me kthx

I don't give a fuck

This is also a really scummy thing to say. This claim matters. I still say maye we lynch him, but just saying i dont give a fuck is scumny and counter productive. If you are scum this game I will find you hunt you and lynch you, otherwise someone needs to get the ban hammer because this is incredibly anti town behavior and at best ignoring your win con or playing against it.

While KTS is being crude, his point is correct.

There isn't any roleclaim SS could make that would justify not lynching him.

[Rhaegar]

Well, we sure don't have anyone that was suggesting the vote count should be delayed, so that shouldn't be a problem.

[Rhaegar]

UNVOTE: snarky

That is one condition I was not going to lynch snarky on. I didn't say it, as to not lead him into saying it.

[Rhaegar]

To be clear, I don't believe his claim at this point. But this lynch needs to be halted for the time being. I need to think a few things over.

[Rhaegar]

I FUCKING HATE WIFOM

[Rhaegar]

No-lynching is not an option.

So I have a question.

If we don't lynch Snarky, what do we do if we run someone else up to l-1 and they claim n1 cop?

[Rhaegar]

Part of me doesn't want to deal with future the future wifom involved in letting snarky live, the other half wants to give him a chance just in case he is town and somehow survives the night.

I'm going to sleep on this one.

[Rhaegar]

If we don't lynch Snarky, what do we do if we run someone else up to l-1 and they claim n1 cop?

I'd like to get some answers to this question.

[Rhaegar]

People can share nights though from what I understand of the setup, so I'm not sure that actually means much. Yes, I do expect a claim, but I'm having trouble seeing a scenario where I would not want to still lynch him. Either way, let's quash that discussion until we here what he had to say.

Example: I've played Diffusion of Power once before. People shared nights, and it was suspicious when we had three claimed Night 1 cops (on the first day). It's not an impossible scenario, but we all thought it was improbable and were able to focus scum-hunting within the group. One of them was indeed scum.

Town still lost, though, so take it with a grain of salt. But if L-1 is going to claim anyway, I'd like to know their night.

Can you send me a link to this game?

[Rhaegar]

We aren't lynching Snarky snowman today. I will find another spot for my vote this evening.

[Rhaegar]

DO NOT SAY WORDS LIKE F*CK AND W*T PLS!!!!!

I get the first, but "wit?"

As in, he has a lot of wit, that was a witty comment, or she is at her wit's end.

I'm confused. How is that a bad word?

[Rhaegar]

@duppin

That's the thought process I just went through. See post 475. You put it a lot more eloquently.

I'm not OK with a day one shotty lynch. Give me a case on almost.

[Rhaegar]

Duppin, You've nearly convinced to put a vote back on Snarky. I find that fact to be rather ironic.

[Rhaegar]

I think I almost feel good about doing this.

VOTE: almost

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: Killthestory

Definitely anti-town behavior, regardless of alignment.

By my count, this is L-1.

Intent to hammer.

[Rhaegar]

Thanks for the timely votecount.

[Rhaegar]

I find snarky scummy but don't want to lynch him today due to his claim. This is a viable counterwagon. KTS's play hasn't been helpful to the town.

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: KTS

[Rhaegar]

I think it will be informative enough.

[Rhaegar]

man youre really trash tier. im going to have to start pairing you with the likes of kain

[Rhaegar]

I'm inclined to at least hear the result first.

[Rhaegar]

Interesting. I'll need some time to think about this. The good news is at least one of them is scum.

[Rhaegar]

I'd like to ask why you chose pisskop.

[Rhaegar]

@snarky why choose pisskop
@pisskop why choose snarky

[Rhaegar]

Nevermind i have poor reading comprehension, pisskop, why choose to investigate kop?

[Rhaegar]

I'm inclined to believe pisskop as well.

VOTE: snarky

Should have done this day 1.

[Rhaegar]

Intent to hammer shotty.

With snarky as scum, i think their interactions point to being mafia together.

[Rhaegar]

I was going to wait, that's why i said intent to hammer and didn't just do it.

[Rhaegar]

I think I smell an Almost / Shotty team.

VOTE: Almost

This is why shotty is scum.

Snarky jumps off a hot shotty wagon onto a non-existant one, but still maintains a distance from his partner. It's also why I was town-reading almost and was disappointed that he was investigated.

[Rhaegar]

I investigated Almost because I didn't like how he asked the night two cop (myself) to investigate pisskop. It was striking me that he knew that PK would show as town, and deflecting the cop to an innocent, since he seemed he knew SS was going to flip scum. I just felt that Almost was scum for that statement since he wanted the cop to look in the wrong direction.

Hiw do you know PK is the wrong direction? I think I caught you red handed. Maybe you know Almost is town because you are scum.

Because I knew PK was telling the truth that I am town. PK could still be scum, but I highly doubt it. He counter claimed SS, and SS flipped scum, so that gives his claim more credibility. Now on the other hand, if SS flipped cop, then I'd have investigated PK.

Wouldn't it be a hell of a scum play to cc your partner? Guaranteed town status right?

Give over. It's stupid play because if PK and SS were partners, they run a high risk that the real night one cop could have stepped forward, and you instantly have 2 scum caught for caution to the wind play.

Think about it logically.

Just to note for the record, there could be two or three or even four n1 cops, (unlikely, but RNG can be weird that way.)

[Rhaegar]

Also, the way shotty reacted regarding Snarky d2 was scummy as heck, he was trying to get that lynch on pisskop.

[Rhaegar]

Agreed.

Does anyone besides Shotty object to this lynch?

[Rhaegar]

@mod, can we get a vote count?

[Rhaegar]

Please don't Lynch yet. I want to have time to read this.

Also an FYI to everyone. There can be multiple cops on the same night, so don't think because somebody claimed n2 cop and didn't get counter claimedthey are legit.

Thank you. This wagon on me is baseless.

I still haven't seen a reason presented today other than it was scummy of me so consider lynching a guilty claim.

Maybe you should... read the thread.

I think I smell an Almost / Shotty team.

VOTE: Almost

This is why shotty is scum.

Snarky jumps off a hot shotty wagon onto a non-existant one, but still maintains a distance from his partner. It's also why I was town-reading almost and was disappointed that he was investigated.

[Rhaegar]

Agreed.

Does anyone besides Shotty object to this lynch?

How about you respond to my posts in stead of stream lining a lynch right at the start of day 3

How about you respond to the case I had on you instead of trying to get out of that by claiming that there weren't any real cases.

Also, I didn't see anything in particular in your posts today that needed to be addressed. Is there anything you want me to respond to?

[Rhaegar]

How about you respond to my posts in stead of stream lining a lynch right at the start of day 3

Oh, and I'm hardly "lining up a lynch" I'm on the back end of the Shotty wagon, and it ain't short.

[Rhaegar]

Shotty, please respond to post 784.

That's why I'm prepared to vote you.

[Rhaegar]

This post.

I think I smell an Almost / Shotty team.

VOTE: Almost

This is why shotty is scum.

Snarky jumps off a hot shotty wagon onto a non-existant one, but still maintains a distance from his partner. It's also why I was town-reading almost and was disappointed that he was investigated.

[Rhaegar]

You don't have to defend what Snarky did, but perhaps you could argue as to why you think it doesn't point to you being scum.

Just a thought. Cause that is why I am going to vote you sometime later this evening.

[Rhaegar]

You're at L-1 by my count. Any last words? Role claim, reads etc.? Wifomy stuff we can argue about tomorow once you flip scum?

[Rhaegar]

No reason to claim or give reads? You're at L-1, with several people probably interested in hammering. Yeah, i think that is reason enough.

Not responding to you? You haven't given much of a defense against my case either.

But I'll play that game. Give me a post you want a reaction to and I'll give you my thoughts on it.

[Rhaegar]

Well, if it's a one post case, it shouldn't take much to argue against it.

[Rhaegar]

Now tell me again, why Kop's claim has any possibility of being fake?

It's clear that your confirmed town from the chain of cop invedtigations (I wouldn't have pointed that out till later, but that's your choice).

I think Kop is town but he isn't confirmed town like you are.

There is absolutely no way you can be scum. But Kop could still possibly flip scum, even if all actions taken so far make it incredibly unlikely.

I don't think it is scummy for auti to point that out.

[Rhaegar]

PK IS town bc it would've been dumber than dumb for the two scum buddies to make that stand off.

Oh, i agree it would be dumb and that is why i think pk is town. But you'd be amazed at the dumb things people do.

[Rhaegar]

That sounds aweful, what happened?

[Rhaegar]

What are your thoughts on shotty?

[Rhaegar]

Why are you fine if you don't see him as scum?

[Rhaegar]

Typically I'm not cool with someone being lynched when i don't think they are being scum.

[Rhaegar]

Seriously how do people not see that lowell us scum, just read his last 10 posts good lord.

If i had a scumpartner playing like lowell, I'd bus him too.

PEDI: Thanks for the vote count.

- <3

Vote:shotty

I have no objection to a Lowell Lynch either.

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: shotty

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: shotty because apparently he has a meta of getting instalynched

How does snarky know about this meta?

[Rhaegar]

I did a search for "shotty" in all of snarkys posts. And by that i mean everything from this site. He hasn't interacted with shotty prior to this game from what i can initially tell. The fact that he then knows about this meta is somewhat suspicious.

[Rhaegar]

Town {Rhaegar, KainTepes, duppin}
Townlean {Lowell}
Null {Kop, pistachi0n, pisskop, Autti, shotty, chilledtea}
Scumlean {shotty}
Scum {KTS, Almost}

If shotty and/or lowell are scum. It would be interesting given the noncommittal reads he gave for them.

Also. We know that both scumreads are town. And he had to be bussing someone.

I think shotty needs to get the noose today based on this.

[Rhaegar]

Is no one else concerned how quickly this all coalesced around a two-person choice between shotty and me? I'm beginning to think shotty is town, too.

Not really. With the cop claims we have three people who more likely than not are town, so that narrows the lynch pool. And there are good reasons i think for there to be suspicion on you and shotty.

[Rhaegar]

What do you think of snarky read list then? Was he not bussing anybody.

[Rhaegar]

Votecount 3.04 (unchanged)

Lowell [3]:

drmyshottyizsik, pisskop, Almost50

drmyshottyizsik [2]:

duppin, Kop

Not Voting:

Lowell, KainTepes, Rhaegar, Autti

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.
Day 3 will end in (expired on 2016-04-19 14:04:14).

My vote should be on shotty.

VOTE: shotty

[Rhaegar]

Auti, lowell, time to make a pick.

[Rhaegar]

Auti, lowell, time to make a pick.

Well Lowell can only omgus me then. If he thinks I'm scum let him vote for me but otherwise I'd like him to provide an alternative to him for the people on his wagon.

If you think he is scum, why do you think it is good for people to be getting off the lowell wagon?

Seriously how do people not see that lowell us scum, just read his last 10 posts good lord.

[Rhaegar]

Four people are voting you, a fifth, who is confirmed town, wants to hammer.

That is the definition of "have to"

[Rhaegar]

But really, if you are town. You need to at least honestly tell us what night you are. We don't get that info when you flip.

[Rhaegar]

That was about as conveniant as snarkys claim.

[Rhaegar]

Oh, wait, it will be night 3 next still.

[Rhaegar]

We won't get his info unti lylo if we dont hit scum before then

[Rhaegar]

We have three more chances to hit scum. Day 3 4 and 5. If we mislynch 3 and 4, we could be stuck in bad situation day 5. Cause I'm not really buying this claim.

[Rhaegar]

Mafia

[Rhaegar]

I'm not sold on shotty's claim for reasons that should be obvious based on how the setup distributes roles.

[Rhaegar]

Read the setup info on the wiki.

[Rhaegar]

It was VC analysis I did earlier. One of FOUR had to be scum: Kop, Pista, Lowell or shotty. Kop is 95% town. pista is mod-conf. town, so that leaves Lowell & shotty. If shotty flips cop then Lowell is scum with KT/duppin. Everyone else is over 75% town.

Just curious how i didn't end up in that pool.

[Rhaegar]

(But Almost50 is probably scum for that hammer especially literally

right

after saying we should wait for me to get caught up.)

Almost is confirmed town.

[Rhaegar]

Just curious how i didn't end up in that pool.

You think you should??

No, but i an curious as to your reasoning for how you narrowed down to those four. I know your town. But it still helps to know why your making your reads the way you are. Especially since the day is ending soon.

[Rhaegar]

Almost is confirmed town.

You expect me to know these things literally 30 seconds after replacing in?

No, that's why i told you.

[Rhaegar]

If shotty is scum. I simply can't see duppin as scum.

Duppin argued early on that either myself or shotty is scum.

That's a precarious position to be in because it forces him to bus his partner should i die or be lynched.

[Rhaegar]

So what if I am mafia?

Then I'll spend the next two days looking at your posts for your remaining partner.

[Rhaegar]

He pushed Rhaegar harder as it's likely somebody else would push shotty, who was a clear ML candidate.

Duppin was voting shotty not me for much of that.

Also, the push on me might seem stronger simply because of how much i was pushing back.

[Rhaegar]

Well, Almost and Kop are both confirmed town now.

[Rhaegar]

(Trust me on this.)

I trust you on this. Was thinking of asking for something similar.

[Rhaegar]

Taking a look back through the thread at ISOs. Starting with Autti

One thing that Snarky did that i find curios is that he re-posted the 2 quotes from KilltheStory, that Lowell had already done.

Instead of referencing the original pickup (Lowell) he did it himself for the sweet sweet town cred.

Minor point, but something i always look out for when someone else is trying to gain cred as opposed to just hunting.

I'm liking how Autti is drawing attention to Snarky here, it certainly doesn't appear like bussing.

This is town v town.

Scum are lurking laughing at you too spending all this time going at one another.

This post was made in regard to me and duppin going at it over my read (or lack thereof) on Shotty day 1. Again, I'm not seeing scum motivation in declaring two people to be town. Scum benefits from less people being considered town.

Guys.

Snarky is scum.

Got to L-1 made a forced reads list post to defend himself. Claims the single most valuable role in the setup, sees we aren't lynching him. Disappears again.

He is 100% scum.

Screw his gambit, just Lynch him.

I like this post a lot. Scum benefits from buying an additional day with a lynch on someone else, and at this point Autti had already made it clear that he was good with a KTS lynch.

@Autti:

So you do agree KTS behaviour is anti-town, and could be a standard scum tactic, but you still want to lynch SS over the. Tell me why?

Because I'm certain Snarky is scum. I'm not certain KTS is.

However, this post does bother me. Autti has no problem going after KTS through most of day 1, but hesitates with the lynch.

Believing the cop claims for now; we have 5 candidates to lynch.

Rheagar
Duppin
KT
Lowell
Shotty

Snarky has very little interactions with most of them, other than Shotty who he pushes quite a bit. I honestly think Shotty is a mislynch candidate.

I think we need to analyse the early wagon on shotty at the start of day 3.

That was quite strange seeing how we didn't have a guilty result it got to L-1 so quickly.

I'd bet scum helped that along the way.

Also by my count we have 5 roles revealed. 3 dead doctors and 2 claimed cops (correct?) thus at this point it's not possible to solve via a mass claim.

We should wait for the KT replacement at least before moving forward.

Shotty was a fairly obvious day 3 lynch candidate given the day one Snarky actions as well as his incredibly scummy day 2 play in regard to Snarky's fake guilty. This isn't a game where scum can win by heavily bussing. Scum deaths give the town plenty of time to rack up cop results and narrow down the lynch possibilities. I would lean toward shotty's scum partner trying to defend him at this point, simply because a shotty lynch puts scum in such a bad spot.

I also think the assertion he uses here (that snarky pushed shotty quite a bit) it in fact not true. There was a push during RVS, but it quickly died, even though snarky claimed to have a slight suspcious of shotty.

The fact that snarky wasn't pushing shotty hard was what led to both their lynches, not that he wasn't being pushed hard enough. This was a bad defense of shotty and it looks suspicious.

autti is a decent pressure-push tomorrow.

No I'm not. Please don't waste your time pushing me.

Ranger has the right idea of looking at the counter wagons, which I brought up earlier.

The day3 start wagon on shotty has to have scum on it given the pace of it, and the fact that shotty is town.

Ranger had a nice find on the almost counter wagon to Snarky.

Is duppin on both of those? I'm on a phone so it's a pita to find it

However, Autti's strong insistence that shotty is town (once the lynch is through) appears legit.

Conclusion:

There's some good, some bad. Maybe even enough for a lynch. The fact that auti was defending shotty, calling lowel scum, but not voting lowell is curious.

[Rhaegar]

Sure you can try to consider a world where I bussed both of my teammates d1. I mean my biggest scumread all game was Shotty, who I tried to push on at the beginning of day 1, then later changed it to Sparky when he claimed and people began voting for KTS for no valid reason, where I tried to convince people vote with me.

Bussing shotty would be a fairly logical decision. It would have been much harder to defend him given the likelyhood he would have been investigated or lynched.

And you treated snarky with kid gloves up until the claim. It was pretty obvious that he almost certainly would be the day two Lynch, so scum wouldn't be losing much by bussing him either.

[Rhaegar]

Rhaegar is obviously going to claim cop. I

What makes you think that?

[Rhaegar]

Why the hell are we all fucking claiming?

[Rhaegar]

What would lead you to think i have an inno check on anyone?

[Rhaegar]

VOTE: duppin

[Rhaegar]

Please see my posts from today. (mainly the interactions between me and Ranger).

I must have missed a page.

But really, attempting to out a cop who hasnt claimed is scummy as hell.

[Rhaegar]

If i were to be a cop with an inno on ranger, i would have waited on that inno. The reason would be that because many people (including the last scum,) had not interacted with him. Claiming an inno right away would deprive the town of uncensored, legitimate reads on him, you interfering with that supposed process is incredibly anti-town.

This mass claim is anti town as well.

Ranger, if you're going to claim you may as well say what you are.

[Rhaegar]

Oh sorry missed the last part of your post.

Actually, we can only go with what is confirmed. Sorry, I'm stuck with phone posting, I'm going to have to go back and read this cause i clearly missed some posts.

[Rhaegar]

(Trust me on this.)

I trust you on this. Was thinking of asking for something similar.

To be clear, i thought a massclaim idea was good at the stsrt of the day. I'm certainly less certain of that now. Although it still may help, it's also not as good as I initially thought, which is why I'd rather not do it, but i think that's not an option unfirteunately.I do think i still get the point of this. I'm curious what conclusions will be drawn.

@autti, we have three lynches left, we have more than three unconfirmed players. Scum can still win if we screw this up.

[Rhaegar]

Ranger softd doc and implied you are a doctor Rheagar. I guess he found a crumb somewhere?

Why the fuck are we prematurely trying to guess roles?

You and duppin...

[Rhaegar]

@Rhaegar:

It's already rolling, my friend. No point in holding back now. Are you a Cop or a Doctor?

Day one doctor. Targeted snarky. Figured if he was town I'd at least let him survive a night for the result.

UNVOTE: snarky

That is one condition I was not going to lynch snarky on. I didn't say it, as to not lead him into saying it.

[Rhaegar]

But ranger won't claim cop.

[Rhaegar]

I mean, i could be wrong. But I'm not reading the situation that way.

[Rhaegar]

Auti, there can be six doctors in this setup.

[Rhaegar]

Did you not read the wiki?

[Rhaegar]

I think autti scumslipped. What do you guys think.

[Rhaegar]

Almost, can you confirm your claim? Thanks

[Rhaegar]

So 6 doc, five cop. Either 5-5 or 6 doc 4 cop.

Let's lynch duppin.

[Rhaegar]

No, we Lynch duppin first. And then we think carefully about our next step if he doesn't flip scum.

[Rhaegar]

That's L-1 by the way.

[Rhaegar]

Sure

[Rhaegar]

Crossing my fingers that this is game.

[Rhaegar]

It was night four....