Open 648: Ari's Donner Party Mafia! Game Over! :O

[Io]

The day will end on [Date] at [Time]

Thank you for the amazingly helpful information of which this day ends.

[Io]

The day will end on [Date] at [Time]

Thank you for the amazingly helpful information of which this day ends.

of when this day ends*

VOTE: Io

I will have thou know that that is proper English that I have used.
If thou not believe me then thou can google grammar checker to test.
I would string thou neck in a noose for horrendous lack of knowledge of the English language, but I shall spare the my wrath for now.
Thou can thank me later for my forgiveness.

[Io]

VOTE: Io

Like hell I'm listening to ye old King George all game xDD

Please, I'm obvious Queen Victoria.

[Io]

1) How did you get into mafiascum.net?
2) What's your favorite role/alignment?
3) What's your favorite color?

Meh no real harm in answering this.
1) Epic Mafia
2) Gladiator man. You do not know fun until you've played Gladiator and just ultimate showdown a player to the death.
3) Dark Purple

[Io]

The only thing I can see pointing towards Franky being scummy in his random vote saying he suspected Cy but not having expressed that suspicion beforehand. And even then that's only slightly significant beacuase he's a hypocrite for criticizing Dunn for not explaining the vote on him.

I suspect Cy a bit more than him because of the fact Cy was the last one on the early Maji wagon and really the 3rd of 4th vote is where I find most scum like to jump on because it's not really noticeable as people tend to focus more on who started the wagon, who pushed it, and who hammered it not really whose in the middle. (Normally this is only in the case of a mislynch but as their is 2 scum parties it can apply to a scum lynch too but still not as likely.)

Not really much else to say about other people so far, so now slight town and town reads.
Far's OK for trying to at least doing more than most people in terms of progressing the game past RVS. I only say OK because that's pretty easy to force, but still better looking than most of you.
Realeo is probably the only person I see right now as actually having genuine town motive behind their posts as the post that contribute don't look forced at all and frankly post 38 draws too much attention to be good for a Serial Killer and isn't all that likely to come from a Mafia. At a bare minimum definitely not a Serial Killer and likely Town.

TLDR: least favorable to favorable reads {Cy-Franky-Everyone else-Far-Realeo}

[Io]

Sorry I was busy all of yesterday, found out my bathroom sink was leaking and there is a pretty large mold problem now so I was gutting the entire sink area.

And I'll have you know I actually have 5 posts Maji.

I don't like Cy's reaction testing, mainly because that is sometime townies only rarely did when I played on another sight. Reaction tests are really just an easy way to look like you're giving content and often just a cop out for a bad move, but honestly I don't get that feeling from him but it's not something that would make me super town read him for doing.

@Dunn, I still don't see how that wall makes Franky look like he is overreacting. That doesn't really seam much of a good accusation by looking at that. He's even right in post 68 that the burden of proof does lie in the accuser not the defendant. Not to mention like with Cy it was just a reaction test and I don't really see those as having town motivation in them very often.

Far is also now my top town read since they've only been contributing more content since I last posted and they are generally doing townie things like giving opinions, scum reads, and other comments on whatever they feel like.

New reads are:
{far}
{Reallo; Maji; Game}
{Bin; Franky; Jae; Shinobi; Alpacha}
{Cy}
{Dunn}

Lastly I will VOTE: Dunn
You're accusation of Franky is really starting to look like a huge stretch now. Honestly after you posted those evidence quotes it just makes me more suspicious of you.

[Io]

@Bins just a quick question. Which scum do you think Frnaky is?

[Io]

You don't have to pageget every time you post a vote count you know. :\

After reading the events of the last page I have a reshuffled list a little. Game +1 and Cy -1.
Game's now being read as town simply because I feel like his interaction with Cy had been authentic (And only using this because I can't spell the synonym starting with a g...).
Also I moves Cy down to scum because of the stupid ending to his last post mainly, seriously that's such s horrible accusation it's just down right scummy, and only a little on the actual interaction he had with Game.

Another thing I will say. I am now pretty confident Cy and Dunn are the Mafia team.
And it's mainly for how Dunn's early gameplay in the RVS played out.

VOTE: cytheflyguy

OK second post in the game. Really nothing really of note here just RVS. And their next post looks like just a light hearted joke.

Holy moly cy is scum guys

I say it's light hearted because it honestly didnt' take long for them to move on in the RVS, and #56 looks like they even had a change of heart and now want people to stop voting for Cy.

Everyone voting Cy should flip to franky

Now I've already said why I think they are scum for the Franky interaction, but what I didn't notice was their opening and trying to shift people off of Cy in the RVS and onto Franky.

The second quote would have given Dunn 2 ways to go if they are partners. 1 way would be an easy bus if Cy really just fell apart somehow, and 2 it would be a good way to distance from him early on to avoid a connection between them. But really #56 undoes all of that as now Dunn's just strait up defending Cy despite the one putting pressure on him in the first place.
I'm aware this may seam just crazy as it's from 3 posts, but honestly with both of them being my top 2 scum reads and this interaction with them it doesn't look far fetched.

[Io]

Really I'm thinking the best thing to do is to lynch Dunn and if he flips Mafia to roleblock and vig Cy.

[Io]

Because I'm already voting Dunn.

[Io]

VOTE: Io

Probably mafia for real here, not like those bad townies

How are you seeing IO as scum

Because I said he was Mafia. Gosh don't you know that's how Mafia think?

[Io]

Disturbed?

I don't think I've ever had my play style called disturbing.

I also don't personally like the meta arguments because they can change from game to game.

[Io]

I reread and lo switches reads on dunn and it only happens after others expressed that view.
Before long had no issues with dunn.

That's a flat out lie.
I had Dunn put down as scum in my second set of reads and not my first set of reads sure, but if you actually read my first set of reads I was disagreeing with Dunn about Frnkay being scum.
So no I've never switched my dread on Dunn ever this game.

[Io]

I reread and lo switches reads on dunn and it only happens after others expressed that view.
Before long had no issues with dunn.

That's a flat out lie.
I had Dunn put down as scum in my second set of reads and not my first set of reads sure, but if you actually read my first set of reads I was disagreeing with Dunn about Frnkay being scum.
So no I've never switched my dread on Dunn ever this game.

Disagreeing with someone = scummy to you?

No but you're saying I had no issues with Dunn which I clearly had issues with and then you use that to make an argument that I'm scum for deciding one post later that his vote was actually a pretty scummy move.
You're wording that like I was town reading Dunn before I scum read him which I wasn't. And then if by had no issues with Dunn you meant that I was null reading him that's a horrible argument as that would basically just mean if I decided later that almost anyone was scum your argument that I'm scum fro doing that would be valid in your eyes when clearly going from a null to a scum read is not a scum indicative in of itself.

[Io]

I don't disappear I just only really check Mafia scum 2 or 3 times a day. Plus when I do get on there's almost nothing actually going on to even talk about hence why I usually just do reads or something.
Also it is a capital I not a lowercase l in my name.

[Io]

Sorry I don't really have time to read 5 pages and this post really isn't any content.
I'm about to go to another state for the next 2 days so I'll be V/LA for a short time, no more than 48 hours though.
Once I get to the hotel I might end up reading the last 5 pages and however many you guys make next, but I don't know if I'll be tired by that point or not.

[Io]

OK I'm back now.

Honestly I can't really find a reason to believe Dunn is Town. PoE alone reaches the conclusion he is unlikely to be Town, and honestly his quantity over quality mentality of posting is more fluff than anything. And really his scum hunting consists mostly of searching for the SK so it's really looking like the best Mafia bet I have.
While SK is going to be more important to kill than Mafia, I would like to have Dunn killed today over Bins.

Another note is that I'm not really as confident Cy is scum anymore so I'll go over Dunn associations more as it's my best possible lead.

[Io]

You know I was actually kind of surprised to actually only find 2 post by you pertaining to non-town reads. Just searching key words in your fluff filled ISO brings up only a few post mentioning SK, or scum and none mentioning Mafia that weren't in response to you being called Mafia. Absolutely no Mafia talk and so far bins, Cy, and Franky have been scummy at some point or another with Bin being the only thing you've called defininate scum and that was SK.

btw bins is scummy

Right now the most likely sk in the game from my point of view is bins.

[Io]

I'd kind of like to know how in that huge wall of posts only 3 of them were actually proving my point wrong. Like really that was just a huge wall of here look at all my useless posts!

Spoiler:

Are we just gunnar let Io skirt here

I have one vote on alpaca who is doing the same.
I'm good with that.

Pretty sure Alpaca does that as town regardless

Actually, this

might

be Jaereed's scum game

I'll let you guys know... at a later date when I sort that out better

VOTE: Bins

At this point I am ok with killing Lane AND Io and writing off jae as tunneled town

If you really want me to waste time going over why all the other posts in your wall are irrelevant I could if that would make you feel warm and fuzzy inside.

I fixed your spoiler tag. Hope that's alright!
- Ari

[Io]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Shinobi
Mostly because no one else seams to agree with me how scummy Dunn is and honestly none of the lynch options I see being thrown around are even that scummy.
Maji and Alpaca aren't being scummy Maji even more so, but I'm still not going to vote for either of those people.
Shinobi looks to be the only somewhat scummy person I see being considered so I'll leave it at them.

[Io]

@Shin Well you may not be my top scum read, that's reserved for Dunn. But I don't like either Alpacha's or Maji's wagon leaving you the only other person that seams to be worth lynching out of the options today.

[Io]

I am stronly against alpaca living to tomorrow.

Shinobi is town

I'm strongly against you not living to tomorrow, so I guess neither of us get our wish.

[Io]

OK, so Dunn has to be Town. Almost 100% sure of it. There is a slight chance that he was a Goon, but not a huge one.

Spoiler:

It is 100% impossible for Dunn to be the SK.
Look at the role PM of SK. It says that the first time the SK is attacked, even if attacked by both Vig and Mafia they will survive that night.
Dunn's role could not have possibly been SK.

Now Dunn can be a goon on a few condition. GM could have preformed the kill and hit the SK night 1.
Dunn could also be Goon if he had done the kill and the Vig/SK shot Dunn and Jae.

Fixed that spoiler tag for you!

As for Far's kill.
SK also has a 1-shot roleblock immunity meaning since Dunn was roleblocked night 1 the SK's night 2 kill could not have failed and thus means that Far was stabbed by the Serial Killer unless the SK chose not to kill for one reason or another.
This means the Mafia and Vigilante very likely did not kill night 2.

Dunn being Vig makes a good deal of sense as there was 1 missing kill night 1 and 2 and Dunn was incapacitated both nights.

[Io]

Well messed up that code, oh well.

Never fear!
Ari is here!

[Io]

Real kind of has a point. But clearly you're the type to reject evidence in favor of gut.

[Io]

Real kind of has a point. But clearly you're the type to reject evidence in favor of gut.

Hey! I present ridiculous number about Cy's xD meta, so I am capable of evidence.

Here's the thing. When you are scum, you are meant to have a strategy. We town do scramble like chicken, but scum are a little bit organized.

Majiffy suggest that gameplay's strategy is to bus cy from a very early point.

If this is a classic mafia v town, gameplay has a lot to gain from bussing cy and I will seriously consider Majiffy's argument.

But this is multiball. Yes, gameplay may get towncred, but he may get killed by sk instead. At this point of the game, I think sk will focus killing town. Mafiasos are sk's enemy, but at the beginning, they are "friends" for making the game quicker.

I love how you go on this tangent when I was talking about Maji.

[Io]

I'll be V/LA for a week starting tomorrow.

[Io]

The only real problem is the SK could have been attacked just as easily as Mafia being roleblocked.
And honestly I don't see why Dunn would preform the kill as there was a good chance he was being roleblcoked in the first place.

[Io]

I am tired from today and really am not thinking strait as I looking at GP for 3 minutes thinking he was GM and should be dead and I was missing something.

And I literally almost hammered Alpaca. I'll just go to bed now, but I do think Alpaca is probably the best lynch for today looking at the arguments. I'm just not going to hammer him when I'm half asleep.

[Io]

Maj, how are you feeling about lo lately? You asked early if we are going to just let her skirt by. And we have. I'm pretty sure she killed dunn

I assume this is a SK accusation and not Vigilante.
But I don't get why because what reason as SK do I have to go Mafia hunting night 1? Considering how I called 2 people mafia partners day 1, one gets nigh killed and the other flipped mafia the next day, as an SK shooting Dunn wouldn't make sense. Granted I wouldn't have known GM would flip Mafia as I only guessed they would but killing the other person I suspected as Mafia wouldn't be smart. Not to mention the huge chance for a cross kill since I did advocate Dunn and/or GM to be bogged.

[Io]

If I were SK I'd gun for the mafia ASAP, the sooner you get them down to the same level as you the better.

But that would mean the Mafia would have been immediately eliminated before night 2 which is horrible for the SK as the Mafia is their only cover.

[Io]

You should always try and mislynch as scum with the exception that at some point in multiball you will want to lynch or kill your opponent.
Just not day 1-2 or night 1.
I get the idea of hiding a dead mafia but it would be very likely all Mafia and vig are dead if there is only 1 kill day 2 and 3 so killing Mafia night 1 only works for like 2 day phases.

[Io]

Vig uses their own judgment I think they should kill scum reads they have, but probably not shooting every night.

[Io]

The only think stopping me from saying that Dunn can't be Mafia is just how much he budfied with Cy day 1 and suddenly there is 1 less kill after both died in succession.
But of course if Dunn was scum then the Vig and SK killed night 1, making Jae likely the Vigilante who shot Dunn. Really just looking at the kills it's obvious the Mafia failed to kill night 1 at all.
Dunn was a very liekly Vig target and the SK can't fail so Jae was killed by the SK.
So with that in mind either GM attacked the SK night 1 or Dunn had to be Mafia.
Going back to the fact there was at least 1 less kill night 2 then that means Dunn almost has to be a Mafia Goon. And again him and Cy were already looking like a good mafia pairing anyways.

So now then the SK is basically the only threat because as far as I am concerned the Mafia is dead. There needs to be hard evidence that Dunn couldn't be the Mafia Goon to convince me otherwise at this point because all evidence shows him as being a Goon.
With that in mind I think the current best possibly bet for SK is Alpacha and if anything Maji would be a close second guess.
VOTE: Alpacha
Either the game ends with him dying or that means Maji is the SK and not him.

[Io]

Honestly if you live your life by Occam's Razor you'll never get anything accomplished.

[Io]

VOTE: maji
OK.

[Io]

Really the Mafia choosing not to kill is such a horrible move it's unlikely.
They would win in the same time assuming we mislynched today and tomorrow if they chose not to kill or to kill lane last night.
The only difference is by choosing to not kill lane the roleblocker is alive for an extra night meaning it's a self handicap to have chosen to not kill lane last night.

[Io]

The only real reason to not kill is to intend to not kill for the rest of the game and just rely on pulling off 3 mislynches which still puts it at a roleblocker vs goon as the final 2 which is a draw.

[Io]

The vig hasn't even shot all game. If Jae was not Vigilante I'm pretty sure they would have killed at least maji last night if nothing.

[Io]

Lane practically couldn't be scum. If he faked roleblocker day 1 the real one would have no reason not to roleblock him, and with that GM didn't do the kill night 1 so lane would only be scum if the real roleblocker thought lane was a VT faking roleblocker for some reason.

[Io]

That day 2 was basically "oh good day 2 started." I go to check te thread "and they lynched GM before I even woke up, well time to go back to bed."

[Io]

Sweet 2 third-parties destroyed and we only knew about 1