Open 667: Day 3
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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when i said that i didnt read the compulsive thingy, i just saw 1 dead i assumed 1 lynch 1 fail night killIn post 536, Gamma Emerald wrote:no kill is legit impossible
I think
I'm not sure what would happen if the mafia fail to submit a killCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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In post 93, Börk Börk wrote:Seeing four pages here already, I got my hopes up that there would be some proper discussion to pick apart and use to scumhunt. But alas, it's a whole lot of fluff and alt fishing.
VOTE: pepchoninga for contributing almost nothing useful despite having the highest postcount. Because that's not useful at all, and yet artificially inflating one's postcount can prove to be useful as a false argument against one's lynch at a later stage.In post 94, Börk Börk wrote:And FoS Keyen for basically the same reasons. And also starting the whole alt fishing thing.
looks like mefia posts and townies posts to meIn post 95, keyenpeydee wrote:@Bork, Can you quote things that looked 'useful' to you?Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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This kind of posts just looks extremely town to me, great line imhoIn post 155, Indigo wrote:You prepared to push my lynch? You really want to be associated with lynching me?Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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In post 191, JasonWazza wrote:Just going to put this here because it seems this conversation is going down this route, this is not saying i believe it's happening yet just a reminder.
Keep the Personal insults to a minimum
oopsyIn post 548, CloudKicker wrote:YOU KIDDING ME GUYS, YALL FUCKING MORONS NLED ?Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Creature, no, you guys wasted a ml and its one of the most sinful thing you can do in this gameIn post 551, Creature wrote:If we mislynch today, next day we're at 4v2 and we lose if we lynch wrong.
If we nolynch today, next day we're at 5v2 and we can either win that day or get another chance next day.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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oh shit he did the international mefia symbolIn post 235, Börk Börk wrote:
How about you get your head out of your ass and read my other posts where I'm scumreading him. Like seriously, are you stupid or something?In post 214, Indigo wrote:
This is a horrible reason to lynch someone. "I think Keyen might just be town but at least if he flips town when we lynch him we wont have to deal with him". This needs to die with fire, you dont lynch someone because you dont like their playstyle or because you rather not deal with them.In post 203, Börk Börk wrote: Please lynch him. Even if he somehow turns out to be a bad town player instead, at least we'll have a significantly more enjoyable game.
UNVOTE:
VOTE: BorkCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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LOL ON MY SLOTIn post 562, Gamma Emerald wrote:
SEE?In post 516, JasonWazza wrote:Vote Count 1.21 (END)
[4] Vijarada: Gamma Emerald, chilledtea, Creature, Pepchoninga,
[2] Tenshii: Celtic, Börk Börk,
[2] Pepchoninga: Tenshii, SnarkySnowman,
[1] chilledtea: Vijarada,
Not voting:
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline:(expired on 2017-01-20 16:41:09)
Looking For a replacement for CelticCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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looks like a scumpost to meIn post 308, Börk Börk wrote:Can we just stop and acknowledge that Snarky has seven posts, while most of us have over 20. And his posts aren't long content-heavy ones either. This isn't a scumread; just calling him out on it. Post more pls.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Dude how come you voted for vij, that guys was bleeding town since the start of the gameIn post 562, Gamma Emerald wrote:
SEE?In post 516, JasonWazza wrote:Vote Count 1.21 (END)
[4] Vijarada: Gamma Emerald, chilledtea, Creature, Pepchoninga,
[2] Tenshii: Celtic, Börk Börk,
[2] Pepchoninga: Tenshii, SnarkySnowman,
[1] chilledtea: Vijarada,
Not voting:
With 9 alive it takes 5 to lynch
Deadline:(expired on 2017-01-20 16:41:09)
Looking For a replacement for CelticCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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stupid posts like theses makes me tr kanyeIn post 359, keyenpeydee wrote:Okay so I'm fine lynching Creature and Indigo. But Creature doesn't feel scummy enough.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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hm that was townyIn post 407, Börk Börk wrote:
Your push on Creature seems policy-based, and there's not much more to it. Why would I policy lynch when I have scumreads?In post 398, Pepchoninga wrote:
You are convinced about this lynch, bur not Creature? I call you bullshit.In post 374, Börk Börk wrote:VOTE: indigo
- second highest scumread
- we're literally getting nowhere with this day
- indigo is lurking and hence not even useful
- seems to be a relatively agreed-upon lynch which we can actually get a wagon on
-This is L-1, M'kay?Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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probably town for that
Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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whut?In post 584, Tenshii wrote:Kinda funny how if we NL, the game will be in lylo for the rest of the game. Although D3 be lylo for mafia instead of town.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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D3 would be 7 way 2 mafia and a town ml, theres no a single way this game can get into anything close to an autowin situation since theres no roles that can confirms others, its a pure scumhunt.
Lynching today gives us worse odds than lynching tomorow for sure, but i also means that the most threatening/obvious town will be dead and wont help lynch mefia tomorowCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Normally, if you guys played optimally, d3 would happen to be on lylo 5 way 2 scum. By nling twice, we get ''scum lylo'' D3 and town lylo D4 and D5. Considering we would aim for a victory on D3 that would mean we want the best ''battlefield'' for town
-> Either we nl today, it goes 7 ways but the only 2 deaths are picked by mefia, we technically have 1/3 to win from anyones town pov, considering a few townies might never get lynched d3 it could go higher, 40%+
-> Either we pick a lynch target today that is chosen by town (which might be the D3 lynch anyway) and we got to 6 way D3 mylo or lynch for the victory of either side which could be cool, where we will lynch for possible autowin.
What that does is we uses our ml to makes for a better town for a better D3 try at ending gaming mefias.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Personnaly i believe that USING our D3
-> on a town that has 6 players over 7
-> on a town where theres at least one death that was chosen by town
-> the possibility of having lynched 1 mefia already on d2, so possibly no stress to lynch correctly more than so than the others days
VS
-> on a town with 7 players
-> if we mislynch, we still have 5 way lylo, so we have 1 shot at win and then 1 shot at not losing
-> the only 2 deaths that happened ingame were chosen by scum which leads to
-> our lynch will probably be the scummiest/most fosed player
->Theres also the cool strat that, mefia literraly cannot bus in autoloss d3, meaning even if we might mislynch, we could get great reads via the night flip for the 5 way lylos
hard to pickCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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Also i dont know if anyone noticed by, we could probably check who was online at the end of the day when the no-lynch was forced, anyone who couldve hammered and didnt was playing against town victory condition and thats coming from the guy who know the slot's alignement. As mefia i wouldve not hammered there because i would assume town would go back on the lynch and blame the lack of traction because it was on a red slot, it wasnt. The actual scum gain wasnt to get a mislynch, it was to get a no-lynch and to resume the very same mislynch on my slot the very next day, no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.
Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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tote a scum post ftrIn post 607, Börk Börk wrote:
Jesus Christ, if we were in a situation that merited lynching someone then I would policy lynch you asap.In post 600, CloudKicker wrote:nvm its in the role pm, who even reads the wins condition duhCloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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tenshi ure that kind of players arent you, i outed what really matters in the 2 scenarios, odd does not matterIn post 608, Tenshii wrote:No Lynch Today > 2v5 Desperation Day
2/7 = 28% Mafia Lynch = 100% Town Win
5/7 = 72% Town Lynch = 13% Town Win (5p Lylo + 3p Lylo)
28% + (72% * 13%) =37% Town Win
Lynch Today
2/8 = 25% Mafia Lynch = 48% Town Win (1v4 D3 + 1v2 D4 Lylo)
6/8 = 75% Town Lynch = 33% Town Win (2v4 Desperation Day)
(25% * 48%) + (75% * 33%) =
(12%) + (24%) =36% Town Win
Lol so if I did the calculations correctly, it is optimal by 1% to No Lynch today.
Get bodied.In post 604, CloudKicker wrote:no-lynching is obviously optimal for mefias in this setup.Cloud is such a clown....prob a town clown, but clown none-the-less - IAI-
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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CloudKicker Jack of All Trades
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