Open 644: Stack the Deck - Game Over

[Dunnstral]

1) Who do you think the two goons are?

Could be any of the four, including you.
You are the least likely overall, given analysis.
I have a gut feeling PantherPunt is a goon, though no solid analysis to back it up.
Which the second of {ploben, Dunnstral} it would be, I'm not exactly sure. ploben makes a lot of sense, especially with "I was framed!" type comments.

Dunnstral isn't impossible, either, though may be the traitor instead.

I guess, overall, I'd say {ploben, PantherPunt} is the most likely goon pairing, but it's far from 100%.

If we assume Ranger is scum and I know I'm town, all the of wagons this game, except Ranger's, have been on town players. I believe this gives scum ZERO need to bus the entire game.

Funnily enough, this works if you switch the names around...and matches the pattern of you four ({ploben, Dunnstral, PantherPunt} in particular) rather nicely!

Assuming I'm town, all wagons, except yours, have been on town players. Scum held ZERO need to bus the entire game. If you were town, they could do anything, but if you're scum, they would in fact have STRONG incentive to...
...Do the opposite of bussing, hard-counterwagoning.

holy townie perspective shit ok I don't think I'm going to keep tinfoiling dunn

Pretty confident at this point Dunnstral is the traitor.

Actually I'm just going to elaborate. I think what you just did is very suspicious mhsmith.

You assuming that if Ranger and Ploben were both town then Ranger would've been hammered by scum which I find a bit questionable. While it is a possibility yes, I'd say it's rather unlikely given the setup. For scum to quickhammer they'd have to coordinate and make sure all three were around at the same time while probably also banking on no town being around. We know they haven't recruited the traitor and that they do not have daychat (since only 2 tprs), so they'd have to coordinate in the game thread and I sincerely doubt that'd ever work, unless they were just hoping for the three of them to randomly be in the thread at the same time.

We also do not even know if the mafia knows who the traitor is (although I reckon the probably know by now).

Anyway, your conclusion is that they can't both be town (I'm actually kind of inclined to agree with this, but definitely not for the same reasons), so you want to lynch between them. Here's the thing, while there is a slight possibility both of them are town there is 100% a guaranteed scum between Panther and Ranger. It makes absolutely no sense for you to limit your scumpool to Ranger and ploben as town in the current game state. Not only is it based on very weak reasoning but changing your lynchpool from Panther/Ranger (confirmed scum between them) to Ranger/Ploben (possible two towns, although unlikely I'd say) should never happen today. It's a way more risky play and if you are town I really don't understand how you came up with this.

I thought this was signalling



Anyways I didn't actually "traitor signal" at all this game which made it a big surprise I guess

I would have yolo claimed roleblocker that blocked duppin (I strongly assumed he'd be making the kill so that in itself would be a signal) but since ranger started claiming I went for VT

[karnos]

This setup kind of sucked I think

basically the 12 person setup, town is banking on goons to hit the traitor to score an extra lynch

I don't like how the setup is themed but the best option is basically to take nothing

Agree 100%, best option is take nothing. I'm honestly curious, is a 3 man scum team actually stronger than 2+traitor? Sure the 3 have an info sharing advantage, but with a traitor, you don't have to fake associations or scum-hunting since you can hunt for the traitor.

[Ranger]

LOL, that's so sick. Could have blown this game wide open D1.

How exactly? That VC has both other scum on me; it would've told you they were town.

(Also, it kind-of tells you something when you have

both scum bussing me

, and yet, I

still

wasn't lynched.)

Basically their claim screamed opportunism, while Panther's claim was pure town reaction.

Yeah, this.

See, PantherPunt caught me offguard with his tracker claim.
I was, at that point, convinced one of {mhsmith, Chip Butty} was a PR, and the other was our traitor.
Because of that, I couldn't risk a fullclaim.
I figured, I'd claim whichever they wouldn't, and then everyone would be, "oh, three PRs, scum recruited their traitor, now we know". (This was the REAL thing I was referring to when I said "I have specific thoughts" when I cast my no-lynch vote. What I

actually

said was a lie.)
I thought, after PantherPunt was revealed as the tracker, I was gonna be lynched for sure, because his claim was so ridiculously good and mine was so ridiculously bad, but I did what I could to spin it the other way around. Glad it worked!

Speaking on the subject: my early feelings on PantherPunt weren't exactly a lie; I

was

legitimately pissed at him, but at some point in the game, I forget when, that anger faded away and was replaced by respect. I know that I messaged Persivul about it at some point, even, where I said, "I don't want to lynch PantherPunt, I respect what he's doing SO much right now and he's actually on the right track and a good player and it makes me sad we're enemies right now", which is actually why on D2 I backed away from PantherPunt, but, well, he wouldn't let up so I didn't have any choice but to also reapply pressure.

The game became lynch me or no lynch due to a variety of issues - the point I am making is there was no case on me.
If you agree with that, and can see it - I actually suggest that the best move was a no lynch, because you shouldn't lynch a slot that doesn't have a case against it.

There was good reason I avoided your wagon! It was because of this.

[karnos]

Speaking on the subject: my early feelings on PantherPunt weren't exactly a lie; I

was

legitimately pissed at him, but at

That actually worked to your advantage, at least in my case. I couldn't tell what was a real scum hunting and what was just out of game drama in the panther vs ranger cases, so I largely ignored him on the subject of you. Not sure he would have convinced me of anything otherwise, but there is that.

[Ranger]

Chip should be awarded mvp by the scum actually, he kept tunnelling on Ploben day 1 and duppin and dunn kept filling their pots with town credit.

(This quote, just one among many.)

What

is

it with towns and, after they lose to scum, getting all hostile about it to one another and screaming how "obvious" the scum were?
I mean...when I lose as town, I will instantly admit any faults of mine and point out what was good and what wasn't. The only ranting I ever do is if I was dead on the money, and even then, I don't throw accusatory words at the town player(s) who caused the game-ending mislynch (well, for the most part), aside from voicing disappointment that it turned out that way.

In this game, I'd strongly suggest blaming the setup itself for the loss. It's very strongly scumsided.

Ranger said something like "If Dunnstral is mafia he's probably the traitor" and you said something about mafia probably knowing who the htraitor was, so I thought you guys knew

I was pushing that because I "thought" the scumteam was Panther-ploben! Legit never crossed my mind you'd actually be scum this game. I was hard-sold this strong push and play from you was your towngame.

[Ranger]

I couldn't tell what was a real scum hunting and what was just out of game drama in the panther vs ranger cases, so I largely ignored him on the subject of you.

Like I said, started real, but at some point no longer was. I started with the issues, but they didn't last that long before I was, at least privately, tipping my hat in absolute respect to him and acknowledging his skill as a mafia player.

[Ranger]

Messages sent to Persivul, btw:

I can't believe it.
Even if Kuroi isn't the traitor like I suspect.
I legitimately scumslipped.

I said only one town suspected me...from the viewpoint of {ploben, Dunnstral, PantherPunt} being scum...

...Which excludes duppin.

*facepalm*

(Nobody picked up on this!)

Heh.

I have to admit, a lot of why I want to back off of my PantherPunt scumread is that he's posting a lot of cool stuff. Like noticing how scumsided the setup is and ranting about it in a similar manner to how I did, and general other stuff like that.

That he held accurate reads on me certainly didn't harm things. Albeit at the time legitimate bad blood, it seems to have passed for the most part.


I got a similar feeling for Dunnstral, even.

I'll send them much <3 when we get to night again.

(I think I forgot to actually do that in the scum PT. Oh well.)

Blah.

I know we don't have a vig; no shots.
I know we don't have a goon cop; there'd be results by now.
So the role must be either a tracker or a roleblocker.

I think it's mhsmith.
I further think it's more likely mhsmith is a tracker than a roleblocker.
But my iso (which does legitimately read as PR) reads more as a tracker than a roleblocker. :S

(This one, someone--forget who--caught.)

Well, mhsmith traitor-slipped.
Good to know!

Gives you a good timeframe for my thoughts during the game.

I was gonna give mad props to Dunnstral for his play this game as town, which now knowing he is scum is elevated to a level

even higher

.

[Ranger]

The thing that amazed me about the day was the number of people tying two or three people together as scum. When I started here - and that was just a little more than a year ago - preflip associatives are worthless was pretty much a mantra. In this game that was like half of the analysis.

This is not at all unusual these days. I've always done preflip associative scumhunting, and rather reliably, too. I didn't see much of a problem with it, but Thor's right: if you think X is scum because of what X did in relationship to your stronger scumread on Y...

lynch Y first

.

Yeah, I guess these people never heard of occam's razor. There was one kill. Assume it was the scum kill.

I let that conversation happen, deliberately staying on the sides, since I was afraid if I told the town they were being idiots (they were), they'd take it as a sign of being too much info and lynch me.

[Ranger]

Should be lynched Day 1 in every game lol.

Just because I've won almost all my recent scum games which happen to be the majority of my recently-completed games? :S

[Zachstralkita]

Not at all ashamed I got snowed by Dunn. I was getting there d4 but his d1 was excellent and very much in-line with the town game I just played with him.

More like PantherPUNKED

[Ranger]

They gave up after certain players found them scummy, no attempt to solve the game and find scum etc.

It was still town, primarily, who lynched both of them, though. I know all too well, especially as of late, the feeling of being disengaged in a game especially one like this. Their disengagement may, or may not, have been alignment-indicative (though was a slight town marker), but there was still ability to read them, ESPECIALLY when Thor replaced Kuroi, and if you think it's the town's fault for not being able to, then that's a seriously-naive perspective to take.

Sure, they wouldn't be blameless, but the fault's usually around 50/50. In this case, I'd argue more like 30/70, theirs:town's.

In short,

I also, as the person replacing his slot, found it interesting that so many people were voting me while unable to describe the reasoning - it was pretty bad.

^This. The town had nothing on him. They lynched him anyway. That's not his fault. It's not scum's, either, since we mostly avoided that wagon!

I would say he felt closed off in offering his opinions and also not very communicative.

Well I was scum and knew that he was town, but seeing him across multiple games certainly contributed to knowing this is not a scumtell from him.

[Ranger]

Uh, no...with this group I think you could literally claim scum and they'd lynch someone else.

Legit was tempted to say, "You morons, I'm not the traitor! Give me the proper respect my goon status gives me!"
:P

Props to ploben for trying to get it back to ranger v. panther.

Unfortunately, ploben doing that was probably one of the things enabling the PantherPunt mislynch: his stance made a clear Panther-ploben connection, which both mhsmith and Chip Butty were noticing. It really made them look like a scumteam, and me as a lone, single town player fighting them off in lylo. Especially since both of them thought ploben was even more suspicious than PantherPunt.

A case of "Damned if you do, damned if you don't", I suppose.

f ranger is scum I think it's sad and unfortunate that panther/ranger had drama from a previous game that got dug up.

Like I said, that may have started real, but at some point, it faded. That it existed, though, was convenient. Players holding issue with my towngame give me LOTS of leeway when I roll scum, because by virtue of them having held an issue with my townplay, their bias gives me an edge in my engagement with them no matter what.

This is why I, personally, do not carry grudges from one game to the next. I may be upset at a player, but I'm perfectly aware that if I made a grudge, then it will significantly reduce my chances of being taken seriously the next game we're in. I don't hold a blacklist; I'll play with anyone who'll play with me.

...Of course, on that note, I've no intention of playing ANY games in the immediate future. I need a break for my health if nothing else.

[mhsmith0]

^This. The town had nothing on him. They lynched him anyway. That's not his fault. It's not scum's, either, since we mostly avoided that wagon!

I respectfully disagree. There was a case. It just wasn't the right one. I'd also say that thors case on Dunn was reachy and shaky; even the scum team didn't buy it!

Unfortunately, ploben doing that was probably one of the things enabling the PantherPunt mislynch: his stance made a clear Panther-ploben connection, which both mhsmith and Chip Butty were noticing. It really made them look like a scumteam, and me as a lone, single town player fighting them off in lylo. Especially since both of them thought ploben was even more suspicious than PantherPunt.

A case of "Damned if you do, damned if you don't", I suppose.

The thing is, that worked in reverse too. A solid ploben town read would have made the case to lynch ranger, and then there is a clear town after the flip, and it's finding two wolves in four players. Given how much id burned my bridges w ploben, it's a hard road to hoe, but not impossible. I was mentally playing around w the idea of Dunn as your buddy given that your Dunn scum read depended on ploben being a wolf, as one example. Games open up after the first red flip.

[Thor665]

I respectfully disagree. There was a case. It just wasn't the right one. I'd also say that thors case on Dunn was reachy and shaky; even the scum team didn't buy it!

I somewhat disrespectfully disagree

[mhsmith0]

I respectfully disagree. There was a case. It just wasn't the right one. I'd also say that thors case on Dunn was reachy and shaky; even the scum team didn't buy it!

I somewhat disrespectfully disagree

Fair enough. Not like I played well at all; easily my worst town game ever (outside turbos); even plague mafia didn't go this badly (now THAT was an epic scum sided setup that would get a revolt if tried on MS - 8v2, no nks, and wolves won n3 due to bonus ague spreading vc after a correct d3 lynch).

I do think w one more lynch we had a chance but alas. Def won't play this setup again though.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw I'll also say that I really did try my best here (including actively working to try and sort panther v ranger d4 and consider other options as well). Super frustrating that it went so badly anyway. Sigh...

[mhsmith0]

Ps what was my "traitor slip"?

[mhsmith0]

LOL, that's so sick. Could have blown this game wide open D1.

How exactly? That VC has both other scum on me; it would've told you they were town.

(Also, it kind-of tells you something when you have

both scum bussing me

, and yet, I

still

wasn't lynched.)

fwiw if you flipped red I'd have been HARD after your wagon for bussing. The nature of the multiple counter wagons to ploben suggested he was saved if he flipped red. Your wagon, otoh, suggested bussing given a red flip.

I suppose I REALLY needed to put more energy into explaining and developing my vca thoughts on d4. Sigh...

[Ranger]

Ps what was my "traitor slip"?

I believe it was around the time PantherPunt first started pushing you as scum: he ironically picked it up for me, where he noted that you were asking what we would be doing as goons, while not considering that we could be traitors.

[Shadow_step]

Stack the deck is in sign ups again lol
Anyone game ?

[karnos]

I saw that. Ugh. I'd play if scum promise to recruit the traitor for negative value

[mhsmith0]

Hell no. Am possibly game for a different open tho, but I'm /in as se and (gulp) ic in newbie queue, as well as to mod a mini normal, so I'm not sure I have capacity.

But seriously, this should be 10v3 with 3 prs abd day talk and traitor can't be recruited. Game design assumes traitor is negative utility when it's actually positive.

[Shadow_step]

Maybe if they make goon cop --> sane cop, bodyguard --> doctor and make the IC the regular one, where they can ask the mod to confirm it on any day.

[Persivul]

FWIW I've won this setup pretty handily as town. I think this scum team made the correct call in choosing no additional abilities, but usually scum chooses stuff.

[mhsmith0]

I think "choose nothing" is a pretty obviously optimal call though. Maybe if traitor wasn't bp it'd be closer to balanced?