Mini Normal 2148 (Post Game)

[stungun0404]

GC, why aren't you voting anyone right now?

[stungun0404]

Question: could it also be a strategic ploy that GC hopped off of the Porkens wagon because he pushed it hard and would look scummy if the slot flipped town, so he had to back off?

[stungun0404]

Who is willing to vote GC other than me and farside?

I know NS will if needed, but is anyone else suspicious of GC?

[stungun0404]

Bc I’ve been drinking and now my neighbors who I was porch chilling with have left, let’s run down the player list.


votato - I’m thinking town but siiigh
bob3141 - leaning town now tbh
DoctorPepper - null bit was thinking town at some point
Not_Mafia- town Honestly not sure how folks can’t see between the lines with his posting.
geraintm - pretty sure town
Ghost Ganster stungun0404 - town Like, annoyingly super town and I say annoyingly because he can get a thought in his head and it might be wrong by gd he runs it down.
Green Crayons - town
farside22 - honestly thinking scum. Sorry <3
HK 50 - town, even tho I don’t k ow where he’s coming from with his fixation on stun
Battle Mage clidd - scum
Malakittens - null. Like if you put a gun to my head I’d slot her town but *** she’s been pretty absent in a way I cannot read
notscience - town. Not even a Q.
Dunnstral - scum

this read list won me over on GC.

this post does make me question: what about this reads list won you over about GC?

[stungun0404]

we are not no lynching. that's why we keep an eye on the deadline.

it's 23 hours from now

[stungun0404]

Let’s Lynch farside mala it’ll be fun

She can get mad about me not having a sensible reason again

im down. she was mean to me, thats reason enough for a lynch right?

also, why is it so friggin hard to lynch the porkens slot? that alone means scum

you could make that argument. but i'm curious myself why it's so hard to get pressure on geraintm (who had only 2 votes this day phase) or hk or GC? There's very likely a scum or maybe more than one in those three players IM.

[stungun0404]

*IMO

[stungun0404]

Bc I’ve been drinking and now my neighbors who I was porch chilling with have left, let’s run down the player list.


votato - I’m thinking town but siiigh
bob3141 - leaning town now tbh
DoctorPepper - null bit was thinking town at some point
Not_Mafia- town Honestly not sure how folks can’t see between the lines with his posting.
geraintm - pretty sure town
Ghost Ganster stungun0404 - town Like, annoyingly super town and I say annoyingly because he can get a thought in his head and it might be wrong by gd he runs it down.
Green Crayons - town
farside22 - honestly thinking scum. Sorry <3
HK 50 - town, even tho I don’t k ow where he’s coming from with his fixation on stun
Battle Mage clidd - scum
Malakittens - null. Like if you put a gun to my head I’d slot her town but *** she’s been pretty absent in a way I cannot read
notscience - town. Not even a Q.
Dunnstral - scum

this read list won me over on GC.

this post does make me question: what about this reads list won you over about GC?

Also, @ Vota: can you answer this?

[stungun0404]

My current vote is useless right now, hmm where do I put it?

Why should I vote Votato?

[stungun0404]

Dunn has not seemed that scummy to me at all. Granted, I have never played with Dunn scum, but this game seems like the town dunn I have seen multiple times. Thus, I still don't want him to be lynched, especially on D1.

[stungun0404]

Yeah im not dealing with any more assholes

mod replace me.

farside, is there any way you can at least gut out the rest of this day phase? I only ask this because it's got 22 hours left, and we've already had the time extended 3 times, which is more than enough, and I sincerely don't want it to happen again.

If not, I understand, but it would just make things easier if we don't have to pause the game until night time searching for a replacement, and allowing the replacement to catch up during the night phase is also optimal.

[stungun0404]

I kinda just want this day phase to be over with so we can get a flip, and also I feel this lynch might be scum, so VOTE: Porkens
Worst case scenario, it hits a vanilla townie, and we can all regroup and reanalyze everything tomorrow from a new perspective.

The wagon is now

L-2

[stungun0404]

And also, GC I like the reasons behind your vote, that's the most townlike post I have seen from you today!

[stungun0404]

This might even suggest some scum are in the passive players group

All 3 scum won’t be passive or it’s a sure fire loss for them and they know it

You need 1 agg 1 pass 1 in between

I said some scum, not all. That means 1, maybe 2 at most.

[stungun0404]

It makes it clear we are not dealing with 3 active scum members pushing lynches, which could even be taken to mean the likelihood is greater that geraintm is scum (the most passive player in this game imo).

[stungun0404]

And that's a definite no to lynching bob

[stungun0404]

Germa we are at the eleventh hour of the day. With no lynch approaching and yet you are still on your vanity vote. You keep saying shogun is wrong but who do you think is the best lynch today. Because as it stands we are a poaching the deadline and porkens is the lead lynch. Followed by dun and green.

Do you see a no lynch as better than lynching Porkens?

As if you are town that what your lack of anything but vanity vote is contributing too.


As most of your posts have been about how you don't like shoguns pushes but you have not come up with any of your own. So who do you want to lynch today? That is a realistic prospect.

Yeah , I do think no lynch is better than a bad lynch. Odds for town tomorrow are better at 9/12 than 8/11

I think this together with your point of not claiming today is scummy. You are pretty high on my lynch list next day phase, and I hope others see what I am seeing here too. Both are anti-town perspectives.

[stungun0404]

No flip only benefits scum because they get to choose a nightkill, meaning we lose probably a towny player, all the while all are main scumspects are still alive and we can't make heads of tails of anything.

No kill is highly beneficial to scum on D1.

[stungun0404]

*our main scumspects

[stungun0404]

i like Porkens posting

I do think his flip would be very informative associative wise, though.

Well...this is a bad reason to lynch someone day 1

Yeah, but who else made this point and you didn't call out?

HK and Porkens both on Dunnstral.l.

[stungun0404]

I am shook rn.

I was reading gerain as townlean but that no lynch suggestion is scummy as hell

Yeah, so is his early waiting out point, and his no claim point.

I say we lynch him tomorrow.

[stungun0404]

I think geraintm is scum, and regardless of what Porkens might flip, we should lynch him either today or next day phase. Most if not all of his theory discussion has only beneficial to scum, thus he is pro-scum, and very likely scum.

If he's town, his theories so far are awfully harmful to town.

[stungun0404]

Vote Count 1.17

Porkens (4):

bob3141, votato, Green Crayons, stungun0404

Dunnstral (3):

DoctorPepper, Porkens, Malakittens

votato (2):

Not_Mafia, farside22

HK 50(1):

Dunnstral

notscience (1):

geraintm

stungun0404 (1):

HK 50

Not voting (1):

notscience

---

Mod Notes:

Majority is 7 players.

Day 1 has begun and will end in (expired on 2020-06-25 21:18:29).[/area]

Less than 9 hours to settle on a vote, guys. No more than 4 votes on anyone.

I would be open to starting a wagon on geraintm, but I don't know if we are going to get 6 votes there in time, so I am kinda stuck there.

Porkens I think would vote there, probably GC, maybe Bob who voted him at an earlier point if he pops in, but who else?

[stungun0404]

*7 votes

VOTE: Geraintm

I will gladly switch to Porkens if we don't think this is feasible.

[stungun0404]

@GC, are you willing to lynch Gera?

Porkens, how about you?

He's not flipping town with the anti-town theories he is spewing IMO. If somebody is spewing anti-town theory more than one time, that is a good sign they are scum.

Plus he has only had 2 votes on him the entire day phase -- me and Bob. why are people so resistant if he is not scum?

[stungun0404]

Unofficial vote count

Dunnstral (3): DoctorPepper, Porkens, Malakittens
Geraintm (3): stungun0404, bob3141, votato
votato (2): Not_Mafia, farside22
HK 50(1): Dunnstral
notscience (1): geraintm
Porkens (1) Green Crayons
stungun0404 (1): HK 50
Not voting (1): notscience

Mod Notes:
Majority is 7 players.
Day 1 has begun and will end in 0 days, 8 hours, 40 minutes.

[stungun0404]

Mabinogion, please vote for Scratchings

Why not vote Gera? No lynch theory, no claim theory, and stalling theory is antitown. He has participated in all three.

[stungun0404]

You’re a towel

so very very useful?

I don't get to look at mafia much at the weekends, 5 pages of I have no clue what arguing about ?

Glad I am missing it...

you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear

well theory isn't exactly the right way to label it, but it was my own term @GC. This was yet another instance of antitown behavior from GC that I called out and that led me to my first vote in this game.

Waiting/stalling is a pro-scum way of handling business in a mafia game.

So he has clearly stalled, he has said we should not force players to claim roles (meaning he'd be ok technicslly with us lynching a power role without them claiming), and he has said that we should no lynch (which benefits scum via their NK after the day phase -- where they can a kill a towny player off and we are stuck with not having much of a clue who is scum/having trouble making heads or tails of things).

[stungun0404]

Things still are not clear for him.

He is still voting Not Science from RVS.

We are having trouble lynching, Do you think it might be because a scum geraintm is not helping us at all?

[stungun0404]

we dont have time to get a claim and properly evaluate gerain. ill compromise on the wagon if needed, but porkens is a good wagon.

In the interests of time, I am more than happy to say now that I will not be claiming any role today. Does that make things easier for you?

This right here... is scum trying to use power to their advantage.
It is antitown to not help us and claim if your back is against the wall.

[stungun0404]

I don't get it. What is so hard for others to understand about geraintm likely being scum/coming off scummy here? How could his repeated examples of clearly anti-town behavior and theory result in a townflip? I see it as unlikely.

I mean, still only three people have now voted him this day phase, in spite of his obvious pro-scum behavior: Bob, Votato, and I.

[stungun0404]

Okay by "run up" I thought you meant "strung up," as in lynched.

I still don't see how him changing his behavior to avoid doing something that got his a lot of votes as town is AI.

I mean, he's gone to the opposite extreme. So that's something worth considering. But I'm not keen on these last minute flash wagons.

I thought you found him scummy based off that one post you saw of his. Why are you suddenly resistant to his wagon?

[stungun0404]

I am shook rn.

I was reading gerain as townlean but that no lynch suggestion is scummy as hell

I would think you would be open to lynching him given this point.

If something "is scummy as hell" -- it sounds like you'd be willing to lynch there based off that. I don't get the resistance from you here.

[stungun0404]

But Geraintm has clearly been more antitown consistently. Why should we give him the benefit of the doubt when I have established he has been antitown on at least three occasions?

[stungun0404]

If Geraintm is indeed scum, I'm suspicious of GC for how he is coming to his defense here.

[stungun0404]

It is antitown that his vote is still on NotScience and has not moved since RVS.

[stungun0404]

Fair enough, but where has he indicated at all he is hunting for scum? At all?

[stungun0404]

<8 hours left to lynch

3 votes the most on a wagon; we need 4 more to secure a lynch.

A no lynch is highly advantageous to scum, so we need to figure this out.

[stungun0404]

Happy Birthday Dunnstral! Hope you can check in soon and help us towards a lynch.

Right now, it seems like it will be difficult to get a lynch as it stands with geraintm stuck on NS, Dr. Pepper stuck on Dunnstral, HK50 on me, Dunnstral stuck on HK and NS not voting.

So I really hope that we don't wait until the last minute, or 9-10 PM EST/8-9 PM CST, or we may be stuck with a no lynch.

Also, Porkens I see you have been online recently and really want to know how you feel about a gera lynch, given he was in your scumpool.

[stungun0404]

And I don't know if farside will vote either; depends on if she checks in. So that's 6 ambiguous votes right there -- nearly a majority.

[stungun0404]

If this keeps up, we'll probably have to lynch Dunnstral for the sake of getting a lynch, since he has 3 votes already and we would need to do the least work there to secure a lynch. I already have addressed plenty of times I don't want a lynch there, so I really hope that doesn't become the case.

I will stop posting for now, but want to see more proactivity from town as we approach the deadline.

[stungun0404]

OK, if you vote germ he'll be in the majority. Are you willing to flip there from Dunn, putting us 3 votes away from a lynch there, and making it easier to secure a lynch there?

[stungun0404]

@malakittens, if you check in. I see you played in the same game bob did with geraintm. What are your feelings on his alignment comparing his town posts in that game to his posts in this game? What do you make of him not voting anyone but an RVS vote, unlike that game?

[stungun0404]

Let's lynch Maris

Will you help us by voting whoever the tide is in favor of if we get close to a deadline and need to secure a lynch somewhere?

[stungun0404]

Im only half reading but i saw the ger push and I am not a fan.
I predict sg will lose this game for town. These mulri push and whip lash reads do not help the game

While you say that, I still have only remained within a pool of pushing 4 players mainly this day phase. Both GC/Porkens, because I think one is scum, HK because I think he is scum, and Gera because I think he is scum.

Votato I am coming around on. I have been resistant to pretty much any other votes, so I have stayed fairly consistent in spite of flipping between that pool.

Plus, if I think one of GC/Porkens is scum, and the other is not, then why should I lynch one of those when I could get one of geri/HK lynched instead?

[stungun0404]

unofficial vote count

Geraintm (4): stungun0404, bob3141, votato, Porkens
Dunnstral (2): DoctorPepper, Malakittens
votato (2): Not_Mafia, farside22
HK 50(1): Dunnstral
notscience (1): geraintm
Porkens (1) Green Crayons
stungun0404 (1): HK 50
Not voting (1): notscience

[stungun0404]

Im only half reading but i saw the ger push and I am not a fan.
I predict sg will lose this game for town. These mulri push and whip lash reads do not help the game

While you say that, I still have only remained within a pool of pushing 4 players mainly this day phase. Both GC/Porkens, because I think one is scum, HK because I think he is scum, and Gera because I think he is scum.

Votato I am coming around on. I have been resistant to pretty much any other votes, so I have stayed fairly consistent in spite of flipping between that pool.

Plus, if I think one of GC/Porkens is scum, and the other is not, then why should I lynch one of those when I could get one of geri/HK lynched instead?

I didn't even know you had a scum reaf on gera. I still see too many fingerprints of mala giving him the benefit of a game day. She said this is how he is and other then lack of reads hes just null for me.

Yeah, I have cased him a lot this day phase. Here are several posts of mine where I've found him scummy:

Spoiler: Stun's suspicion of Geraintm

You’re a towel

so very very useful?

I don't get to look at mafia much at the weekends, 5 pages of I have no clue what arguing about ?

Glad I am missing it...

you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear

Stalling is anti-town, so no don't wait, try to get others to produce content instead by asking questions and engaging them in discussion. Scum, from my experience, stall frequently, so this officially puts you on my radar. Town should never feel like they can just wait on others to produce content in their absence.

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

VOTE: Geraintm

Absolutely nothing in their ISO thus far points to scumhunting, and I do not like that. Especially paired together with their commitment to stalling that they admitted to in 108 by saying "you all do you, i'm going to wait until things become more clear."

That does not settle right with me at all.

I have nothing at the moment. day 1 people talk but it doesn't mean anything. votes are the important thing and there just haven't been many so far. I'm very much the type of person who looks at people's voting patterns and trying to either spot inconsistencies or really, really bad logic used to justify them

when I say you all do you, it is just me saying I don't have the mental capacity to argue over perceived slights, misunderstandings or whatever

Fervently disagree with D1 meaning nothing, and the reason why is because I have formed my best reads historically off D1 insights. It is possible to find an entire scum team on D1, and in that regard time has proven that my D1 reads are often my best of any day phase.

Why can't you read votes that have already occurred in this day phase and analyze them?

GC has a fair point, geraintm is still voting not science based off RVS reasoning, which is just a very lazy vote park that is not seemingly going to get us anywhere this day phase. I'm not real fond of it.

If he's town, it's as though he is playing a scared game, and I also don't really like that. If he is scum, it makes sense; he wants to stay in the background.

@GC: if you had to guess, what do you think geraintm's alignment is?

So far, I feel good in asserting these players as more likely town than not: Not Science, farside, Dr. Pepper, Mala
Gut is also leaning town with Bob.

That means I think in all likelihood all scum have to be in this group of 7 players {NM,

geraintm

, GC, HK, Dunnstral, votato, BM}

@HK: I like that you responded. The one alternative scenario right now where I can see you are town would mean to me a scum team of BM/Clidd-Votato-and

Geraintm

. Like, I really feel good enough about everyone else to assert that I feel fairly confident that all 4 scum are in those 4 folks, with BM and Votato being a super obvious pair. I can't see those two not being partners. Too much of a clear link to be coincidental.

It would be only after those 4 are lynched that I would want to see a potential Dunnstral/nm lynch.

I really want your response to this though:

@HK50, how do you feel about the alignments of Clidd and Votato? And why?

I will respond to the rest of your case either tomorrow or the following day.

my reads, based off a combination of feel and reasoning.

titanium-strong town reads: bob, dr. pepper
solid town reads, but not beyond doubt: farside, notscience, malakittens
likely town: nm
nulltown: Dunnstral (this is notably my weakest town indication though)

minus associations and all the other stuff i have been pondering, here is how i would rate the others based strictly off the assumption that anyone could be partnered with anyone:

null: votato, gc

scumleans:

geraintm

, hk50

strongest scumread: clidd/bm

Thank you Porkens for claiming!

A question to everyone then: if today's lynch is not Porkens, who else would you be willing to lynch this day phase?

Maybe then we can get a full perspective on who the best alternatives could be to a Porkens lynch. Because otherwise I don't see a lot of unity occurring among us if we start getting town indications from Porkens (which he still should try to give us, but in the meantime this is what we can ideally obtain).

For me, I would prefer HK if not Porkens, but also am open to lynching

gera

, or GC (GC I only say this because I am confident one of you or Porkens is scum, and therefore I am open to lynching either of you if it comes to that, but you are at the bottom of my list of 4 players right now as it stands).

Also, anybody feel free to raise objections to this if you think giving out this information might hurt town more than help us.

And yet I had voted geraintm at an earlier point and clearly indicated that I was OK with him getting pressure? Did you happen to miss that?

I don't think as town you doubt the genuineness of that interaction. Like it really gave me a scummy feel about you that I have been unable to shake.

No I did not; that's not the issue I had. I never had an issue with you wanting to redirect pressure there because of suspicions.

My issue was with how it came across to votato which felt unnatural. There was several points where you felt you were either trying to force votato to commit (via stating that it was the only wagon other than him you would move to) on top of it feeling purposely leading after votato gave his first read about germ.

Finally, I found it off putting that you dropped reading votato and prioritized pushing germ when the thread topic switched to that, leaving votato's 650 for example untouched till later which was the analysis you claimed you wanted to see.

Why do you think town me has to see it as genuine?

As for the bolded, this is easily explainable too. I started getting some bad feelings about my push on Votato, so I moved away from him, and there was (and still honestly is) absolutely no support for a

Geri

wagon. No one has voted him outside of Bob and I in this game. No one. So I went to other scummy suspects.

My pool is a mix of three factors:

Ger+stun circa 274
Stun+Dunn+vot circa 389 (targeting GC)
Bob circa the first 30pages not expressing one firm read then calling Dunn town. Also votato and stun both have bob town.

274 was not serious at all; it was a total joke. His previous post made me laugh. I would definitely not base anything off of that--because it is not by any means an AI vote flip. Anyways, there was no support for the

gera

wagon anyways, so it seemed to be a lost cause.

Circa 389: I'm not quite sure why that raised red flags for you either

Bob has asked incredibly insightful questions and made numerous original observations that to me clearly suggest he is coming from a town perspective. It is clear he is scumhunting. And why are you basing your read of someone based off who others have as town, and thus making them scum? That's not a compelling reason for finding someone to be in your scumpool.

At that particular point, I thought that GC and

Geraintm

were the most scummy, and I kinda felt that your slot was town, but I wasn't too convinced. A lot has changed since then, and I am really convicted one of your slot/GC is scum.

If you want my percent rankings, I can grab them right out of the notes I took, let's go:

at that point, i had

GC 59% town

Geraintm 65% town

HK50 66% town
NM 67% town
Votato 68% town
NS 69% town
DoctorPepper 70% town
Bob 73% town
BM 74% town
Mala 77% town
Farside 79% town

So really no one stuck out with everyone so close to each other except GC.

Let’s Lynch farside mala it’ll be fun

She can get mad about me not having a sensible reason again

im down. she was mean to me, thats reason enough for a lynch right?

also, why is it so friggin hard to lynch the porkens slot? that alone means scum

you could make that argument. but i'm curious myself why it's so hard to get pressure on

geraintm

(who had only 2 votes this day phase) or hk or GC? There's very likely a scum or maybe more than one in those three players IM.

It makes it clear we are not dealing with 3 active scum members pushing lynches, which could even be taken to mean the likelihood is greater that

geraintm

is scum (the most passive player in this game imo).

I think

geraintm

is scum, and regardless of what Porkens might flip, we should lynch him either today or next day phase. Most if not all of his theory discussion has only beneficial to scum, thus he is pro-scum, and very likely scum.

If he's town, his theories so far are awfully harmful to town.

Vote Count 1.17

Porkens (4):

bob3141, votato, Green Crayons, stungun0404

Dunnstral (3):

DoctorPepper, Porkens, Malakittens

votato (2):

Not_Mafia, farside22

HK 50(1):

Dunnstral

notscience (1):

geraintm

stungun0404 (1):

HK 50

Not voting (1):

notscience

---

Mod Notes:

Majority is 7 players.

Day 1 has begun and will end in (expired on 2020-06-25 21:18:29).[/area]

Less than 9 hours to settle on a vote, guys. No more than 4 votes on anyone.

I would be open to starting a wagon on geraintm, but I don't know if we are going to get 6 votes there in time, so I am kinda stuck there.

Porkens I think would vote there, probably GC, maybe Bob who voted him at an earlier point if he pops in, but who else?

*7 votes

VOTE: Geraintm

I will gladly switch to Porkens if we don't think this is feasible.

Mabinogion, please vote for Scratchings

Why not vote Gera? No lynch theory, no claim theory, and stalling theory is antitown. He has participated in all three.

Things still are not clear for him.

He is still voting Not Science from RVS.

We are having trouble lynching, Do you think it might be because a scum geraintm is not helping us at all?

I don't get it. What is so hard for others to understand about geraintm likely being scum/coming off scummy here? How could his repeated examples of clearly anti-town behavior and theory result in a townflip? I see it as unlikely.

I mean, still only three people have now voted him this day phase, in spite of his obvious pro-scum behavior: Bob, Votato, and I.

But Geraintm has clearly been more antitown consistently. Why should we give him the benefit of the doubt when I have established he has been antitown on at least three occasions?

[stungun0404]

Wouldn't Geraintm have joined a wagon... or is he just that passive

I don't know. Do we have a meta of his scum game? We do of established town games for him, where he is passive, but not this

passive

. He could be thinking here as scum he has to look the same way.

In addition, it does not appear he is scumhunting. We are having trouble securing a lynch anywhere. And I assume that means 1 or maybe even 2 scum are not giving us much help with lynching here. I don't buy that everyone that is not helping us is disinterested town, making it more difficult for us to secure a lynch because of that.

This apparent passivity/lack of help we are getting in securing a lynch IMO aligns with my scumspects of HK and gera, particularly, working together.

Wouldn't it make sense if scum was seriously helping us right now that we would not be waiting until perhaps the last second to be lynching someone?

This should make it highly likely from other's perspectives that there is one, maybe two scum in the more passive pool of HK, gera, and Dr. Pepper (although I think he is town personally -- I could see how others could perceive him fitting into this role for only really voting Dunnstral).

[stungun0404]

Geraintm (5): stungun0404, bob3141, votato, Porkens, Dunnstral
votato (3): farside22, notscience, Not_Mafia
Dunnstral (2): DoctorPepper, Malakittens
notscience (1): geraintm
Porkens (1) Green Crayons
stungun0404 (1): HK 50

Looks like it's Gera vs. Vot vs. Dunn right now

The chances will be higher that NS is scum I think if gera is scum, simply because supposing gera is new at playing scum, he could have just voteparked on a partner (as I had a scumpartner do once in a newbie game and I could not get them to move off of me nobody how many times I told them to, and it later implicated me). Plus, I notice that NS is defending Gera here by voting Votato, while saying he feels more confident in Gera townflip (still no scumhunting).

I just want to point this out as a possibility, even though NS more than likely wouldn't be my top suspect next day phase, because I could foresee this being the case if gera is scum.

[stungun0404]

I just don't get how NS is not suspicious of gera if he has voteparked on him all day?

[stungun0404]

Geraint's wagon composition is atrocious

I disagree--what makes me feel best about is that myself and my biggest TR Bob are the ones leading it as compared to the back three which I think are the more likely scum if some are on the lynch. I feel all right about Dunn and Votato, Porkens could be scum, but from your vantage point I think that you are suspicious of the last 3 (your supposed scum team you mentioned earlier). Why couldn't one of them be joining a wagon on a scum partner from your perspective?

[stungun0404]

Stungun why do you think the wagon state is only explained by inactive scum?

I'm generally curious. When I left, it was mostly between GC vs Pork, and now there is a completely new wagon competition. The only way your inactivity theory makes sense to me is if neither pork or GC is scum from your POV since there was a clear pivot in gamestate to promote a whole new set of bandwagons.

We've had plenty of time to lynch someone (3 days added to original day phase), and if scum was taking a super active approach in general, then we most likely would have already secured a lynch. Yet it is still hard to secure a lynch, no matter the direction we go in (Porkens taken to L-1 at the furthest but very briefly, Votato/Dunn to L-2 and now Geraintm finally to L-2). Note that I was on every single one of the wagons I believe when they were at their peak, so assuming others think I am town trying to pressure/see how others react to different wagons, then it makes perfect sense that there are one if not more passive scumplayers that are not taking an active part in pushing things in a specific direction.

It's not hard to secure a lynch when scum is actively helping, especially if every single one of them are in some way. By the feel of things alone, this suggests to me that there is definitely a passive scum member somewhere to be found.

[stungun0404]

HK50, Geraintm is against claiming in general though, so it would not make any sense for him to claim given the stance he took against me earlier in the game. Him claiming PR would be sketchy af given that stance.

We have one day left in this day phase and about 5 hours, which means

@Porkens: it is really important that you claim in your next post so that if your role is important to us that are town, we can keep you and have more time to make a well-informed decision to move elsewhere.

I hate cdemands for claims like this. it never seems to help. if it is scum, they can flush out someone else or else send town onto a wild lynch chase that won't go anywhere good. if it is town...how is getting them to claim and out themselves going to help?

He wants no claims at all -- that was what he was trying to promote.

If scum and we implement this plan as town, this plan would provide scum an opportunity to lynch power roles without them even claiming.

That, and scum does not want to be forced into a role claim, naturally because they are scum.

[stungun0404]

Yeah, but look at my proposed scum team:

Gera, HK, GC/pork (one of them)

Gera is passive. You have been somewhat passive. OTOH, GC has been active. Porkens/BM slot? Somewhat passive somewhat active --> somewhere in the middle.

There could be one active scum, maybe even two, but I am very convicted against all 3 having been active. I am favoring one being active at the moment.

[stungun0404]

4 hours, 28 minutes to deadline.

[stungun0404]

So deadline is at 9:18 PM EST/8:18 PM CST, we need to keep an eye out for that and vote someone out to avoid a no lynch which will occur if we do not reach a majority.

[stungun0404]

Why cant scum take the middle road route (which is realtively normal scum play) and only be active enough to balance influencing the gamestate and not over commiting? Especially if dunn was town and slash or GC/pork was a TvT which plays into their agenda.

Yeah, tbh I think he is coming from a "less likely" perspective here, which again suggests he is not town but rather scum. Town favors what is more probable, and usually does not throw out what is less possible, but HK has done so quite a few times this day phase.

Also, he came up with a reason to support Gera being scummy. He does not vote gera, but actually ends up drawing attention to all three of the counterwagons that are voting him.

Ding ding ding: they could be scum together.

[stungun0404]

I mean, passivity makes more sense than that based off the gamefeel so far, firstly. Second of all, you are assuming GC and pork is T vs. T and that their agenda fits that description which I could not possibly disagree with more (I think personally it is highly unlikely they are T vs. T based off their early pushes of each other, although others can debate that too). Third of all, you are supporting a point that still speaks to scum taking on a certain degree of passivity, which actually ends up supporting my point in a way (lol).

And not really, I think Dunn is likely town, and Vot I am coming around on. Porkens, meh, maybe/maybe not. Does not worry me too much, and it's because of how anti-town some of gera's post have come off to me. If he is playing town that is to say that I think he is playing a really bad game FMPOV, which makes it easier to assume he is scum because in that case he is not playing a bad game so far FMPOV.

Worst case scenario with this vote IMO, we knock out someone who although town hasn't contributed anything to helping us lynch this far. In fact, they have made it that much harder, and thus it makes sense that they are scum. We also get rid of someone who has done more anti-town things than town things, meaning we rid this game of a distraction.

[stungun0404]

Updated votes

Geraintm (5): stungun0404, bob3141, votato, Porkens, Dunnstral
Dunnstral (2): DoctorPepper, Malakittens
votato (2): farside22, notscience
notscience (1): geraintm
Not voting: HK50

Since we have 3 hours 39 minutes left in the day phase, we're at a point where it is going to be difficult to vote out anyone except Geraintm, so we might as well consolidate there, even if we want to wait a little longer as it looks like the only feasible place we could end up. We would need 5 more votes in any other direction to secure a lynch there, which would make for a really risky last-second lynch.

[stungun0404]

Updated votes

Geraintm (5): stungun0404, bob3141, votato, Porkens, Dunnstral
Dunnstral (2): DoctorPepper, Malakittens

Porkens (2): Green Crayons, Not_Mafia

votato (2): farside22, notscience
notscience (1): geraintm
Not voting: HK50

EBWOP

[stungun0404]

Good, I found a scum game of his I was reading here: viewtopic.php?p=11502149#p11502149

Similarly, he stuck to an early RVS vote, but then eventually pushed a player that was town with a case that led to that townplayer's lynch. So he held back any other votes until he had that possible sticking gun.

I am happy with where this vote went, and hope he flips scum. Thanks nm for hammering!

[stungun0404]

Gera, if you do happen to be town and see this thread before the Mod returns and posts, please do give us a final reads list if you can.

[stungun0404]

Geraintm, i think from my perspective it didn't look like you were scumhunting, and I didn't like a lot of the theories that came off as anti-town to me based off my experiences, so I would just suggest to be careful if you are town here in future games to make sure your theories can't be interpreted as anti-town (such as the no lynch).

I am looking at those who simply followed up on me asking them next if you flip town, which would be in the pool of Porkens, HK. Porkens probably first needs to be looked at, especially with his scumreads of me, you, Bob, Dunn and Votato? Like 4 of those might flip town imo if that is the case.

Votato as a dark horse on your wagon.

[stungun0404]

Also will need to look at those who seemed like they knew gera would flip town, because they could be scum that knew.

[stungun0404]

VOTE: Votato

[stungun0404]

I was not exactly expecting a geraintm townflip. NotScience was right in saying that some of the most antitown things come from town, and geraintm certainly fits in that category.

Sorry for leading town towards a mislynch. While I regret doing that specifically, I am fine with having Geraintm out of the game for one simple reason: he was a real distraction for me from analyzing the gamestate correctly. 9/10 times I probably repeat that same lynch under the same circumstances, and the reason why is some of the things that he said as far as theory went came off as grossly anti-town. From an informational perspective, this lynch may not have been very beneficial for others, but I can say for a fact it definitely was for me.

Anyways, I am back to where I was at the middle of last day phase, after revisiting some things.

First off, a little bit before the middle of the first day phase, I had an intuition as to what I thought the possible scum team compositions could be, based off my impression of the game. This is where I was at the time (and where I find myself now as well):
1 scum in {

GC

,

Porkens

)
1 scum in {Votato, Dunnstral}
1 scum in {

Geri

, nm, HK}

For some reason, I strayed from this eventually, but geraintm was honestly always in my scumlean pool based off the content of his posts tbch.

[stungun0404]

Yes I requested replacement but had stuff prepared that I wanted to post first since I worked on it intensely

[stungun0404]

User avatar
Joined: May 25, 2018
Pronoun: He
Post Post #126 (ISO) » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:27 pm

@GC, with the geri townflip and Porkens scumflip, I feel you are undoubtably town. The reason being is because after rereading, some of your reactions seemed completely genuine to both my scumreading of Geri and me linking you with Geri, because I really don't think scum under the same circumstances reacts in quite the same way as you did. It would be really complicated for them to pull off.

Second of all, I like the fact that you settled back on Porkens because I was so high on the impression of one of you being scum, and now I know that it was Porkens that was scum among you, especially since he made that (T vs. T argument) for the two of you, which I absolutely profoundly disagreed with, and that has now been proven true.

farside was notably the other that agreed with this assumption (although I was the one to state it first). I was already townreading her, and the fact that she came to that conclusion too makes me feel good about maxwell, more or less.

Also, I liked the fact that you have been aggressively disagreeing with me on a lot of things, and that you do not feel like scum trying to pocket me at all. Now that I notice that geraintm was town and was similarly doing this aggressively (which honestly looking back should have been a town ping because of how much and aggressively he disagreed with me, knowing that I am town), this makes me feel great about you.

Finally, I knew that you and bm was not s v s, therefore you are now in my undoubted townpool.

HK also extended that same argument that Porkens did (that Porkens vs. GC was town vs. town which I don't think town could conclude), and so I think they are linked. You two clearly were not town vs. town from my perspective.

Votato, as I thought early in the day phase, is the one that naturally links the two. It just makes sense, both from a gut feel and analysis perspective. Votato is scummier than Dunnstral to me, too. Similarly, HK is scummier than nm in my pool.

I really really disliked some of Vot's reactions from last day phase, revisiting it through analysis. I totally want to lynch him next. Going into last night, I knew it had to be Porkens or Votato next -- both had bad vote reasoning. Votato should be our next lynch.

[stungun0404]

Yes I requested replacement but had stuff prepared that I wanted to post first since I worked on it intensely

You're not supposed to post after requesting a replacement, just letting you now because I don't want you to get in trouble for breaking the rules.

I think Battle Mage did it too though in this game, so it should be fine.

I would have posted this anyways had the thread been open long enough the other day, but as it were I was just a little late.

[stungun0404]

where did you store that post before you posted it today?

To save my replacement from any trouble from that: my personal PT. I have my own private PT where I can post analysis for all my games.

[stungun0404]

Wow, congrats to both DP and Bob for pulling the wool over my eyes on D1! Especially Bob. I remember a series of questions you had asked me that day that together with some of your other posts sold me so much that your perspective was genuinely curious town and not scum. I think had I remained in the game, I would have found you a lot more suspicious after the vanilla cop claim because that seemed to me like it could be a safeclaim for a rolecop, which is pretty much always scum to my recollection. DP, on the other hand, I don't know if I would have been on to you like it appears the rest of town ended up being. So congrats to town as well for successfully securing that scum lynch!

I think both Bob and DP played very well overall. There were a ton of townplayers that came off as scummier than the two of you this game, and that says something.