Mini Normal 2168 | So Many Bats! | Game Over!


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Post Post #13 (isolation #0) » Wed Sep 23, 2020 8:28 am

Post by UNOwen »

Hello everyone

VOTE: Redados
For obvious reasons.
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Post Post #644 (isolation #1) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:05 am

Post by UNOwen »

Holy spam batman! This will be an interesting one...
In post 15, Redados wrote: How DARE you
Have you been scum before?
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Post Post #660 (isolation #2) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 1:59 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 645, shellyc wrote:hi UNO! I just read one of your games yesterday, pretty solid scumplay.

can you give me your thoughts so my mind has something to work with
My thoughts are rubbish and that I will probably end up having to take notes or something to keep track. But I'm not trusting you so far. I don't believe in your reason for suspecting Jackson and I don't get the impression you believe in it either.
In post 646, shellyc wrote: redados' never been scum probably, so if anything the self aware play is town indicative
Why would this be? Self aware suggests nerves which fits well with first time scum. I think the way he is scumreading two players who have caught flack but qualifying it by saying it is based on play style looks like he is trying to keep his options open.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #3) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:09 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 666, shellyc wrote: Firstly I believe in my reason for SR'ing jackson and ive made that pretty clear so you're shading me
Secondly this is a chainsaw, if scum!jackson then probably scum!UNO as well
You have such high confidence in JV scum based on the reaction to your "bait" post? I can't see how you could be convinced on that.
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Post Post #679 (isolation #4) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:13 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 675, shellyc wrote: Even if i disregard it I still scumread them
if you don't mind I can make another big ugly quote wall but don't have the energy for that now
Sure.
Can you answer my question about 646?
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Post Post #693 (isolation #5) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 2:21 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 684, shellyc wrote: a newb!scum (at least from my brain cells) isn't the self aware type as they aren't even very aware about what to do to manipulate the town.
Newb!scum might not be aware how to manipulate town, but they are likely to be more aware of how the rest of the game is perceiving them and be making efforts to appear reasonable. Certainly that was my experience, and I don't think I am atypical.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #6) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 8:00 am

Post by UNOwen »

Redados why did you vote Noraa?
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Post Post #809 (isolation #7) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 10:59 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 798, Redados wrote: now that I have calmed down, I will leave my vote where it is.
Do you think they are scum?
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Post Post #811 (isolation #8) » Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:23 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 810, Noraa wrote:This question's answer is no. If u read thru his iso u can see he doesn't actually have any reasons for SRing me
Well he has claimed to be scumreading you, then said it might just be playstyle. But it's not clear what the problem that he has with your playstyle is and now he's voting you for explicitly NAI reasons, so I'm wondering what's going on there.
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Post Post #887 (isolation #9) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:40 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 812, Redados wrote: yes, I think that she is scum. she feigns/uses her newness and appeal to emotion, and she's able to use confusion to do anti-town stuff. I think that she's scum.
In post 831, Redados wrote: I say here that I feel like you are scummy, but that probably has less to do with alignment and more to do with your playstyle. I then abbreviate that here:
In post 389, Redados wrote:Town:
JV

Null:
Jester

Scum due to playstyle:
ShellyC
Noraa

Scum:
Saudade (but I have been told this is his town meta)
Looking over this post^ I can see why you would have taken that the wrong way. That's fine. What I don't get is how every time I explain it you are not understanding.
Simultaneously thinking that Noraa is scum because of specific behaviour but also thinking that specific behaviour is NAI for Noraa. This seems to be two contradictory arguments you are making at the same time. Can you point to where you believe she has been anti-town in this game in a way that you wouldn't expect from town!Noraa?
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Post Post #888 (isolation #10) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:45 am

Post by UNOwen »

@shellyc
- I was hoping for a follow up where you explained why you were confident in JV scum outside of the "bait" reaction
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Post Post #889 (isolation #11) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 4:55 am

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In post 878, Odd Day Jester wrote:Hey, UNOwen, I'd like to talk with you some. I see you just finished a game where Noraa was scum, what do you think of her here in contrast to that game?
Yo.
I suspected noraa that game, but the majority of her posts were after I had been killed and she was replacing a player I was already suspicious of so I'm not sure of the value of this comparison. In that game I thought she was incoherent and flaily, here there is more focus and I can follow what she is saying. Nothing she has done has bothered me so I guess first impressions are decent. What is your opinion?
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Post Post #1024 (isolation #12) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:17 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 957, Odd Day Jester wrote: 11. Redados - Towny for that emotional reaction to the Noraa.
Hmm, I agree that anger is townie but it defused quickly and I don't think it is beyond scum to get genuinely irritated at that response. What do you think about the rest of their position on Noraa?
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Post Post #1025 (isolation #13) » Fri Sep 25, 2020 11:32 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1022, duppin wrote:@UNOwen I'm going to need to hear some more from you. Some reads or thoughts on the game please
Ask specific questions and you shall receive specific answers.

In general though I think Redados is most suspicious and am surprised there's not more interest in the wagon against him. Shellyc's earlier behaviour with Jackson was also suspicious but it remains to be seen if she has a more compelling explanation for that read. Outside of that I get the impression that despite the high quantity of posts this game is spinning wheels. Jester's read list that was unable to identify scum felt like a fair and honest assessment. Perhaps once saudade is no longer vla, the replacements are made, and the catch-up players have caught up there will be more notable developments. For now I am satisfied with what I am pursuing.
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Post Post #1064 (isolation #14) » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:37 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1032, Mundivore wrote:Hrm. I'm tired of all the fluff.

It feels like there hasn't been any really consequential scumhunting at all in these entire forty-two pages. Nobody has made behavior with actual
stakes
. I don't know if I can confidently eliminate even a single pair of scumbuddies with any degree of confidence.

Things won't happen unless town starts voting for people. I've been part of the problem, but it's easy enough to fix.

VOTE: Saudade to E-2.

I actually don't like this wagon. I like Saudade for town. However, either this entices scum out to put more votes on people, or I get shown a more compelling wagon, right? But somebody really needs to start taking risks for us to actually
learn
things.
The motivation and frustration with game state is good but the vote is not. Why vote against vla player you town lean and not support small time but existing Redados wagon? Competing wagons should in theory create a higher information game state than one dominant wagon and a bunch of isolated votes.
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Post Post #1066 (isolation #15) » Sat Sep 26, 2020 6:49 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1049, duppin wrote: i see, well then my question would be why are you not trying to push harder on redados?
I don't think there is much cause for urgency yet. We are down four players currently, and there has been some soft support for a redados wagon among those who are playing. So for now it's ok to push this gently and see who joins or if some players start to push back.
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #16) » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:21 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1033, shellyc wrote:Ok I'm going to stop procrastinating and high effort this

Jackson is Scum.

*snip*
Thanks for getting back to this. I am not convinced of your case, the question for me is whether I believe you are convinced of it. It is more substantial than I was expecting so that is in your favour. The IC stuff is fair, that was indeed weird. Wagoning is also a reasonable argument but this far away from an execution I don't see it as necessarily scummy. The bulk of this though is wrapped up in Jackson's reaction to your scumread and his own subsequent read on you. I really can't understand the argument here. Bafflement seems a perfectly reasonable response and since bold moves are clearly part of your playstyle it makes sense that he would then find it hard to determine your alignment.

I guess the point is that you think a townie being accused of "scumslipping" would immediately believe you are scum trying to push a miselimination. The problem is, I don't think I would think that straight away either. Trying to push something so blatantly dishonest is such a poor plan that I would probably assume either you were pulling some sort of reaction test or you had completely misread my post in some way. Only if the push was sustained would I then go on to view it as scum-motivated.
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Post Post #1075 (isolation #17) » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:31 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1072, Noraa wrote:There was nothing specifically saying why. It sounded to me like, "oh no one likes my reasons for being on saudade so I'll just switch to the Redados wagon now"
That's fairly reasonable though? If one of your scumreads doesn't have traction it makes sense to re-assess and move on to the other. I actually agree that Taylor has a different vibe this game, but I wonder if that's not just because she has replaced in this time and so isn't settled. I'm not viewing her as suspicious currently so that definitely suggests some difference! :P
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Post Post #1079 (isolation #18) » Sat Sep 26, 2020 7:41 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1077, Tayl0r Swift wrote:i was also town power role there. i had to stop being quite so aggressive given im not the jailkeeper here.
Yeah, I had that in my mind as another possible explanation.
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Post Post #1175 (isolation #19) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:19 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1110, shellyc wrote:
In post 1073, UNOwen wrote:Trying to push something so blatantly dishonest is such a poor plan that I would probably assume either you were pulling some sort of reaction test or you had completely misread my post in some way. Only if the push was sustained would I then go on to view it as scum-motivated.
does this mean you think my push on jacksonvirgo is incorrect
Well I'm not sure which you are asking about here due the chopped quoted. The answer to both is "yes". For clarity, in those sentences the "push" I was talking about was the initial "Jackson scumslipped in ". You think that because he didn't immediately think you were scum for inventing a scumslip then that itself was a scumslip, which is the basis for the rest of your push. I think that you are incorrect in what the townie reaction to your "bait" would necessarily be, and so the rest of the push is also incorrect.
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Post Post #1182 (isolation #20) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:30 am

Post by UNOwen »

My big question for Redados is when he started to scum read me?
Because I am first mentioned as a scumread on my second post, at which point I had done nothing, so I can only imagine he already scumread me before he started his stream of consciousness. And then the follow up question is if he was scum reading me before starting the catch-up, why not mention it before?
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Post Post #1186 (isolation #21) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:36 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1184, Redados wrote:
In post 1182, UNOwen wrote:My big question for Redados is when he started to scum read me?
Because I am first mentioned as a scumread on my second post, at which point I had done nothing, so I can only imagine he already scumread me before he started his stream of consciousness. And then the follow up question is if he was scum reading me before starting the catch-up, why not mention it before?
Stream of consciousness. I wasn't hiding a scumread on you before. I shared my thoughts on it as it developed.
So these:
In post 13, UNOwen wrote:Hello everyone

VOTE: Redados
For obvious reasons.
In post 644, UNOwen wrote:Holy spam batman! This will be an interesting one...
In post 15, Redados wrote: How DARE you
Have you been scum before?
Resulted in this:
In post 1164, Redados wrote: Post 644 - UNOwen asks me if I’ve been scum before. I have not been scum before. Currently I am scumreading UNOwen, he seems to be doing very little except asking the odd poking question. Sketch. Scummy.
?
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Post Post #1188 (isolation #22) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:46 am

Post by UNOwen »

VOTE: Redados
I'm currently going over your quote wall, will give further thoughts once I've examined it in more detail.
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Post Post #1197 (isolation #23) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:19 am

Post by UNOwen »

This is nothing to do with alignment, but I've decided that I really dislike the style of responding various posts with "real-time" opinions. It is tough to read, and makes identifying the overall arguments unnecessarily difficult. A nice paragraph or maybe just some sentences which give proper opinions post catch-up would be much preferred.

So trying to summarise what I thought:
I see lots of "lol, this is funny".
I see that you are scumreading almost every player to vote against you.
I see that you agree with some of shellyc's posts, calling them pro-town at one point but still scum read them. There is no explanation on the overall shelly read.
I see that you are now claiming to scum read Noraa, but do not want to explain why her behaviour this game is outside of the general scummy Noraa behaviour you expected as it "seems like a lot of work".
I see lots of "why no hunting" even though you have done very little on that front.

My conclusion is that your scumreads are weak and poorly justified and you are displaying very little interest in solving and more in appearing to do so.
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Post Post #1200 (isolation #24) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:30 am

Post by UNOwen »

Yep, I read post and think we are agreed entirely on this one. Redados just seems very insincere to me.
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Post Post #1316 (isolation #25) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:03 pm

Post by UNOwen »

Glorious Redados wagon, where everyone is active and bickers with each other. I would like to see the rest of the game weighing in (including bugspray, who announced his presence but dodged commenting).
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Post Post #1323 (isolation #26) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:13 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1224, Redados wrote: that's fair. my thoughts totally could have been easier to read, and are probably not easy reading. I didn't proofread it. If I were scum, this would be hard to do because I could have slipped up while writing it and given y'all ammo against me. I'm town so I have nothing to hide. Look at it more as collateral than evidence, in this way.
I disagree that it is hard to fake as scum, there are potential benefits to that style. Commenting on each post individually makes contradictory stances somewhat expected for example. That said, I do think you slipped up. Your suspicion of me is I suppose justifiable from your point of view when considering my overall posts but I do not see how you could have developed that read on the basis of my first two posts. That your argument was even technically accurate in that the "odd poking question" was exactly one question is also alarming. It looks more like you had already decided to scum read me before you started your stream of consciousness.
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Post Post #1328 (isolation #27) » Sun Sep 27, 2020 11:22 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1304, Redados wrote: I think Nora sussed me before UNO did? I don't think UNO sussed me until I sussed him if I'm remembering correctly
?
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Post Post #1344 (isolation #28) » Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:28 am

Post by UNOwen »

The inter-wagon paranoia was a good sign I think, but a few comments on what was discussed:

Noraa is a bit over zealous to be talking about post flip associations, but I still agree with her Redados read. I don't feel like I have been pocketed at all, when I read her arguments I find myself agreeing because they are raising points I was already thinking, rather than seeing them as new arguments that I follow. For example and have a similar analysis of the big catch up. That we both reached these posts at more or less the same time makes me strongly feel that Noraa is on the same wavelength as me and so probably town. I definitely don't see Noraa as sheeping either, she has been a lot more vocal about redados.

Still no problem with Taylor.

Shellyc continues to do things I don't agree with. I'm not sure if I believe that is scummy anymore. She is very in the moment, post is the most illustrative here but works too. Speculating that the majority of scum are within the current most relevant players (Redados wagon + Redados) seems not very likely to come from scum, who would have a greater awareness of the rest of the game. It would also be a poorly motivated scum move - I can't see the benefit of constantly disrupting and drawing attention to a limited selection of players especially when shelly has already caught a lot of flack for this already.
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Post Post #1349 (isolation #29) » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:43 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1346, Odd Day Jester wrote: I can't tell if you're addressing this at me, but I'll have a look at these points after I've finished catching up. I gotta ask though: How do you keep your leaves so green at all times? The seasons come and go but UNOwen stays green; what's your secret?
No, I just wanted to comment on the shelly-noraa back and forth that took place, since I was mentioned during it. As for your questions - I hope you are not suggesting some sort of skulduggery is afoot. I assure you the tree pictured is perfectly natural, not artificial at all.
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Post Post #1519 (isolation #30) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:31 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1353, Odd Day Jester wrote: Also, about Redados's catchup wall there: I like the number of times he reaffirms he's still scumreading UNOwen throughout that post, it gives me the feeling he's constantly thinking about the read while he catches up, and is keeping us updated about it. Also, his thoughts on UNOwen early kinda mirrored mine in that he was being a little too selective in his posting, which is why I prompted him to talk to me about Noraa. Redados pushing this over someone like shelly who looks like a far more viable counterwagon I also like. I don't think Redados is scum.
Interesting, that is not the impression I got. Did you have those thoughts about my play after my second post? This is probably now my biggest issue with Redados, because the suspicion seems more like a broad overview of my play rather than something which developed naturally.

The meta argument about Redados lol-posting previously is acknowledged.
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Post Post #1524 (isolation #31) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 4:48 am

Post by UNOwen »

Duppin attention is interesting, I thought he had townie vibes earlier but I guess there are some questions worth asking.

@duppin

-If you agreed with sus!redados why not join the wagon for pressure when it became clear saudade would not be returning any time soon?
-Are you aware () that Jester floated the exact same theory when they first replaced out?
-Do you consider "he was actively trying to solve the game when he could have easily just camped his vote" to be a still accurate assessment of bugspray?
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Post Post #1567 (isolation #32) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:40 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1550, Morning Tweet wrote:
Spoiler:
VC 1.10
Image
Bat Fact #11:
Bats belong to the animal order chiroptera (Greek for "hand wing").
They are named for their four long fingers and thumb, each of which are connected to the next by a thin layer of skin.

EXILE STATUS
[3] Tayl0r Swift:
Odd Day Jester, NorwegianboyEE, PlusJOYED
[2] Saudade:
MiniMegabyte, duppin
[1] Redados:
UNOwen
[1] shellyc:
Mundivore
[1] Noraa:
bugspray
[1] MiniMegabyte:
Saudade
[1] UNOwen:
Redados
[1] duppin:
Tayl0r Swift
[1] PlusJOYED:
Noraa

[1] Not Voting:
shellyc

With 13 still flying around the place, it takes 7 votes to ground someone.

The Day 1 deadline is in:
(expired on 2020-10-03 14:30:00)


Mod Notes:
MiniMegabyte is being replaced.
[/mech]
The Rise and Fall of the Redados Wagon: A Tragedy in 62 Pages.
In post 1530, Redados wrote:
In post 1520, PlusJOYED wrote:funny thing is I have a gut feel on unOwen being scum but their posts seem towny
again, it's not what he's saying but what he's NOT saying
There is reasonable logic to this, I have been focused on you and have made few comments elsewhere. If you are town then I should be suspicious to you. But you have claimed to understand my perspective, so my question is why you think I am scum trying to push a miselimination and not town who thinks you are scum?
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Post Post #1585 (isolation #33) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 7:57 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1569, Noraa wrote: nuuuuu uno im coming back
VOTE: Redados
The Rise and Fall and Rise again...?
In post 1573, Redados wrote: I'm new to this :] I've never been scumread before/never had a serious wagon on me before, so it pops as scummy when you and PlusJoy vote for me. I just don't see why y'all would vote for me if you weren't scum.
Be warned that I will at some point force myself to check if you have never gone through a town game without attracting serious suspicion before, so please offer clarifications if necessary. But to help right now, perhaps you could explain your Noraa read + explain how you formed your impression of my play based on two posts?
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Post Post #1594 (isolation #34) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:01 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1581, PlusJOYED wrote:this is probably omgussy but i don't care, there's actually like no way i can see NB being town so I'm gonna shoot my shot for now
UNVOTE:
VOTE: NorwegianboyEE
Isn't your suspicion of Norway primarily based on him doing exactly this?
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Post Post #1614 (isolation #35) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:13 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1596, PlusJOYED wrote: no i never said I needed an elim right now unlike NB. We have time to spare and it's way better to hit obvscum imo
The blood lust
is
unreasonable considering we are waiting on two replacements (one of them being among the higher interest slots). I can't say I don't understand the idea of wanting to see a flip to get on more solid ground though.
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Post Post #1620 (isolation #36) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:18 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1604, Redados wrote: My impression of your play; I semi-read/kept up with the game. I re-read the game. On my re-read, I noticed that you weren't taking stances. you were asking questions and being present but in a way that wasn't actually helpful/hunting.
Hmmm.
In post 1616, Noraa wrote: plus is one of the replacements. The other is still in the process of replacing or something
Yeah I was thinking that Saudade might also be replaced. Whether he is or isn't I would like to have seen something more from that slot before day is over.
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Post Post #1625 (isolation #37) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:27 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1607, NorwegianboyEE wrote: He's probably scum.
Do you actually think this or are you just being combative?
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Post Post #1632 (isolation #38) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:36 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1604, Redados wrote: My Noraa read is that she is tunneling on me, it reads like new player energy but I know that she's capable of using that to her advantage.
Hmmmmm. Can you expand this read to contain something to do with her alignment?
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Post Post #1637 (isolation #39) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:42 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1636, Redados wrote: Noraa's reads and tunnels are anti-town.
Anti-town is still leaving the door open for town. Do you think she is scum or not?
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Post Post #1640 (isolation #40) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 8:48 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1638, Redados wrote: I think she's scum.
We got there. So going way back to my previous question which you did not answer - can you point to where you believe she has been anti-town in this game in a way that you wouldn't expect from town!Noraa? What about her reads suggest she is scum?
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Post Post #1704 (isolation #41) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 10:28 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1676, Tayl0r Swift wrote:uno, i feel like i can trust you. please look over duppin's iso and tell me what you think of it, too
I see what you are saying. I have asked him some questions () and intend to take a closer look at his ISO tomorrow
when he has had a chance to answer
(nevermind) - and perhaps more importantly when I am less tired. He was a town-lean earlier on, the way he interacted with me felt without agenda and from memory I thought some of his posts displayed town thinking (I believe he was one of the first to suspect Redados). The static Saudade vote is pretty suspicious though, so this is a read worth reviewing.
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Post Post #1892 (isolation #42) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:07 am

Post by UNOwen »

Lolol

UNVOTE: Redados
VOTE: bugspray
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Post Post #1893 (isolation #43) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:11 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1701, duppin wrote: No I was not actually but i dont really think it means anything whatsoever unless he actually wants to pursue it which I'd be opposed to. I just brought it up for cheap postgame cred in case it is what happened. I am curious though, what exactly was the point of this question?
Potentially rehashing an already proposed theory and presenting it as your own is a suspicious thing to do, but this reaction seems sincere so I guess that is not the case.
In post 1701, duppin wrote: i've pinged them out a couple of times now asking for them to follow up on their notes. I still think what they did was a pretty big towntell though, but I will gladly admit that they have dropped a bit and if it continues like this I will definitely revaluate my read on them day 2.
But for day 1 I have no interest in pushing them.
I asked because bugspray camping their vote is precisely what they have done for a long time now, with no attempt to pressure Noraa or "actively trying to solve". So on that basis your read is well out of date. Do you think that the importance you are placing on the towntell is influenced by the fact that you did something similar?
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Post Post #1905 (isolation #44) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:02 am

Post by UNOwen »

On ISO reread I still think duppin is town. I understand why the occasional text blocks that appear look like he is too concerned with explaining himself but I think that might just be his style, some of the arguments he makes are so meandering I don't know why he would bother with them as scum. The bugspray town read was not so lazily held as I thought it might be, he went back to bugs at least a couple of times which shows interest in actually solving. The Saudade vote continues to be a stain but I guess I can see why he would want to hold onto it when it was his major hook in the game and disappeared in a puff of smoke. Despite this focus, there is still an interest in the rest of the game throughout his posts and I can't detect any scum agenda.
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Post Post #1906 (isolation #45) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:07 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1895, Odd Day Jester wrote:bugspray is prime launchbait btw. They've been launched day 1 more than any other player I've seen on-site. It's why I was so happy to see a natural push from them early, so I could slot them as town, because something like that is rare from them as both alignments.
Maybe, but since they have claimed to be taking notes I would like to find out what conclusions they reached and why they were so willing to vote one of the more heavily suspected players of the game for such a bad reason.
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Post Post #1913 (isolation #46) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:19 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1908, Noraa wrote:Uno do you agree with my shift of opinion on redados?
I'd still like to execute him. But yeah I am reconsidering, the most recent explanation he gave for his scumread against me seemed more honest. Earlier he had claimed to not be holding a suspicion of me before he started his reread, now he says my posts were already in mind. I'm still not sure whether I believe he made came to suspecting me after two posts but I am thinking on it. And in general his posting has improved. As much as I agreed with your point against them, bugspray is more of a placeholder vote for me while I try and work out whether I am just tunneling on Redados or if my vote might be better elsewhere.
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Post Post #1914 (isolation #47) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 6:21 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1913, UNOwen wrote: I'd still like to execute him. But yeah I am reconsidering, the most recent explanation he gave for his scumread against me seemed more honest. Earlier he had claimed to not be holding a suspicion of me before he started his reread, now he says my posts were already in mind. I'm still not sure whether I believe he
made
came to suspecting me after two posts but I am thinking on it. And in general his posting has improved. As much as I agreed with your point against them, bugspray is more of a placeholder vote for me while I try and work out whether I am just tunneling on Redados or if my vote might be better elsewhere.
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Post Post #1978 (isolation #48) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:22 am

Post by UNOwen »

Sad to see Jester go, this new Hectic fellow has some big shoes to fill...

Pretty sure unexplained read progression was my biggest reason for wrongly suspecting Taylor in the newbie, so that it is now a central part of her scum hunting is more than a little weird. This wagon dynamics argument that turns duppin from a hard scum read into town is also not great.
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Post Post #1983 (isolation #49) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:45 am

Post by UNOwen »

Taylor why does Norwee voting you suggest in any way that duppin is town?
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Post Post #2082 (isolation #50) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:09 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2000, shellyc wrote: why is “interest in the game” alignment indicative though?
also can you quote the posts in which a town agenda is shown
1) The case against was that duppin didn't progress his reads from the start of the game, so therefore wasn't trying to solve. Interest in the game shows that is not the case.
2) Probably if I was to delve into his ISO again, but that's not what was suggested. Lacking scum agenda means I could not find any points where he seemed disingenuous or trying to push a miselimination.
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Post Post #2087 (isolation #51) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:13 am

Post by UNOwen »

bugspray seems alright

UNVOTE: bugspray
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Post Post #2090 (isolation #52) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:17 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 1328, UNOwen wrote:
In post 1304, Redados wrote: I think Nora sussed me before UNO did? I don't think UNO sussed me until I sussed him if I'm remembering correctly
?
This never got a reply from Redados, but I would like him to explain why he thinks I never suspected him until his big catch up considering he has claimed to have been reading my posts.
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Post Post #2091 (isolation #53) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:37 am

Post by UNOwen »

VOTE: Tayl0r Swift
I think the arguments about her recent play are convincing enough.

E-1
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Post Post #2149 (isolation #54) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:38 am

Post by UNOwen »

UNVOTE: Tayl0r Swift
VOTE: Redados

Back to this then.
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Post Post #2289 (isolation #55) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:30 am

Post by UNOwen »

Note to self: Must Stop Spamming

bugspray would be basically a policy execution. I agree with Hectic's (?) assessment that the references to notes seemed honest so I think it is a better idea to execute elsewhere.
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Post Post #2290 (isolation #56) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 2:46 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2248, Mundivore wrote:Okay, I missed the claiming action that was going on. That's sort of weird. I could go for PLUS, I could also quite happily go for Norwee here. If this is TvT, then it's really tragic, but it really heavily reads as TvS to me.
Why TvS?
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Post Post #2333 (isolation #57) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:20 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2318, duppin wrote:the TvS read is so weird to me on day 1. what makes you believe that discussion is more likely to be TvS? you said the same about me and tayl0rs discussion. Like I understand having an independent scumread on someone, but I am not sure I really follow the logic that any of these day 1 discussions are more likely to be town vs scum
I agree with this. Shelly comes across as the type of player who is willing to make these sorts of guesses based on intuition though.
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Post Post #2336 (isolation #58) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:31 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2325, Redados wrote: I went back and ISOd you and your post 660 sheds some suspicion on me but I didn't see you as scumreading me until you voted for me. And post 1025.
You did not see me as scumreading you until I voted for you the second time
and also
the time when I said I thought you were the most suspicious and was surprised there weren't more votes against you, which was earlier and definitely before your big catchup.

The question isn't really about what you think now though, it is whether at the time you posted your catch up and voted against me you were aware that I thought you were scum?
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Post Post #2343 (isolation #59) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 5:41 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2340, Redados wrote: no, I was not aware although I had read the whole thing so maybe I should have been more aware/was aware subconsciously

can I ask why this is so important?
I'd like to believe that if you were suspecting me from that early on in your read through you would have been paying attention to I was saying.
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Post Post #2395 (isolation #60) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 12:36 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2355, Hectic wrote:Leaning VOTE: Redados atm

UNOwen, what do you think of Redados's latest replies? Changed your mind in any capacity?
They have confirmed what I thought, that Redados's reads were wafer thin and not backed up by anything of substance. Already I thought this was the case with the two meta turned scumreads after he was so evasive when I questioned him. I find it pretty remarkable that he claims to have read enough of my posts to notice what I wasn't saying while also not noticing that what I was saying was pointing the finger at him. I guess I believe that he really wasn't aware that I suspected him, or at least that he forgot, because that is a pretty silly lie to tell if scum. However this just shows that his scum read against me which came to him after my second post was not all that thought out after all. That makes the "why are you townreading UNOwen!!!" stuff at the end of his catch up and in the posts after sound even more insincere.

My hesitation is that it's very brazen, and feels like exactly the sort of thing I would be targeting if I was scum trying to stitch up a lazy town player. Since Redados has never been under serious suspicion before though (I skimmed VCs, don't remember a single wagon against him ever getting further than two votes) it seems unlikely that this is the case, surely if this stuff was typical of Redados he would have faced more scrutiny throughout his games.
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Post Post #2656 (isolation #61) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:55 am

Post by UNOwen »

BM - duppin fight has not changed my mind, still think duppin town. Instinct says the way BM has entered the game is more likely to be town, but I'm not confident that applies here. Either way, he has claimed confirmable pr so not worth wasting too much effort on today.
In post 2629, Hectic wrote:If people want to start voting/compromising, I'd recommend Redados. I think UNOwen's reasons are legit and his lack of reasons and then backpedal on both of his scumreads on shelly and Noraa is shady.
I endorse this message.
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Post Post #2867 (isolation #62) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:27 am

Post by UNOwen »

I think this player list has enough intelligence not to let Battle Mage coast on a confirmable claim which never gets confirmed.

Dave who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #2877 (isolation #63) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:38 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2865, Battle Mage wrote:I looked for a Redados case, but couldn't see much.

Mod, can we get a votecount please?
The case is that he claimed to have scum reads which when examined had nothing going for them: , ,
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Post Post #3031 (isolation #64) » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:34 pm

Post by UNOwen »

VOTE: Noraa
Good stuff, Redados is entitled to crow in the graveyard.

I agree that Mundivore is probably scum too.
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Post Post #3035 (isolation #65) » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:41 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3033, NorwegianboyEE wrote: If you’re not 3rd scum. Who is?
Dave at a guess
For a proper answer - not sure, I'd have to think about it and it would depend on Mundivore scum being confirmed.
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Post Post #3036 (isolation #66) » Mon Oct 05, 2020 11:45 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3034, shellyc wrote:UNO sheeping all of our hard work, smh
To be fair to me, I was suspecting Mundivore yesterday. :P
But yes I get the sense that this will now be another game where I am completely non-essential to victory.
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Post Post #3042 (isolation #67) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:00 am

Post by UNOwen »

I see why that is called a VT crumb but that is not what I meant
It was more that Noraa scum being caught shifts the game so it now feels like we are heading to victory, and I had nothing to do with that (nor would I have done)
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Post Post #3058 (isolation #68) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:56 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3043, NorwegianboyEE wrote:You can still be essential if you're town and can make a convincing case of who Noraa's last two teammates are assuming you're not in it.
Possibly the " :P " should have been placed at the end of the second sentence rather than the first.
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Post Post #3060 (isolation #69) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:57 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3051, shellyc wrote:@UNO in general, do you prefer bussing/distancing or NOT bussing/distancing?

general question btw
idk, it would depend on the game. Probably my preference would be to avoid my partners at all if possible.
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Post Post #3064 (isolation #70) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:00 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3061, shellyc wrote: pedit: I don’t mean social distancing with your partners, I mean attacking them.
Again I don't really know, I do not have much recent experience as scum. But I expect I would not want to attack my partners.
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Post Post #3066 (isolation #71) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:08 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2290, UNOwen wrote:
In post 2248, Mundivore wrote:Okay, I missed the claiming action that was going on. That's sort of weird. I could go for PLUS, I could also quite happily go for Norwee here. If this is TvT, then it's really tragic, but it really heavily reads as TvS to me.
Why TvS?
In post 2333, UNOwen wrote:
In post 2318, duppin wrote:the TvS read is so weird to me on day 1. what makes you believe that discussion is more likely to be TvS? you said the same about me and tayl0rs discussion. Like I understand having an independent scumread on someone, but I am not sure I really follow the logic that any of these day 1 discussions are more likely to be town vs scum
I agree with this. Shelly comes across as the type of player who is willing to make these sorts of guesses based on intuition though.
This is me growing suspicious of Mundivore at days end. He never returned to the thread, so I never got to develop this suspicion.
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Post Post #3092 (isolation #72) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 3:14 am

Post by UNOwen »

UNVOTE: Noraa
No rush
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Post Post #3256 (isolation #73) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:10 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2867, UNOwen wrote: Dave who do you think is scum?
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Post Post #3309 (isolation #74) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:47 pm

Post by UNOwen »

Does anyone not think Mundivore should be the next execution?
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Post Post #3322 (isolation #75) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:14 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3315, Hectic wrote: I liked UNOwen giving up a place on the wagon to give me some time. There's town-motivation in wanting to stay on an outed scum wagon too despite people's request for more time, but going off one takes a lot more town-motivation than scum-motivation, since it's at the expense of some potential cred.
Tbf I would have been willing to do that either way. I would have encouraged Noraa to selfhammer as soon as possible if I was scum, but whether that argument is worth anything depends on how independent scum Noraa is.
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Post Post #3323 (isolation #76) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:17 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3320, Hectic wrote:
In post 1892, UNOwen wrote:Lolol

UNVOTE: Redados
VOTE: bugspray
Why did you vote bugspray here, UNOwen?
I read through the previous pages and the only solid opinion I got from the spam was that I needed to see more from bugspray, then I saw that Noraa who I had been agreeing with a lot had reached the exact same conclusion. So it seemed like I may as well just sheep.
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Post Post #3326 (isolation #77) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:25 pm

Post by UNOwen »

re META: From memory I did not make any connection to Ydrasse for all of day 1, and am pretty confident this is correct because we mentioned it in the pt. I believe I tried to avoid staying on the same wagon as her too, but that might not be correct. Day 2 was a weird phase where I was pretty certain I was getting executed on day 3 (which was correct, but for the wrong reasons) so I was forced to do a bit more distancing.
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Post Post #3331 (isolation #78) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:19 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3327, PlusJOYED wrote:why would UN vote bugspray when Nora's caught scum if he's not trying to derail a wagon
UnOwen/Noraa seems probable
This is good thinking.
What do you think of Mundivore?
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Post Post #3334 (isolation #79) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:22 am

Post by UNOwen »

It is clearly terrible thinking.
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Post Post #3354 (isolation #80) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:43 am

Post by UNOwen »

Spoiler:
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Post Post #3355 (isolation #81) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:46 am

Post by UNOwen »

If we believe Norwegian then scum doc
does
imply there is a vig
But shooting a claimed confirmable pr n1.... lol
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Post Post #3358 (isolation #82) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:55 am

Post by UNOwen »

Yup.

VOTE: Noraa
If Mundivore isn't going to push an alternative suspect today and no-one wants to contest the execution either then there is not much point in dragging this out.
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Post Post #3432 (isolation #83) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:04 am

Post by UNOwen »

So is Mundivore just caught scum and Noraa was trying to psych us out with the "please spare me another day" act?

Noraa not mentioning them in her final read list was clearly calculated, but I don't know if that suggests a set up or just reverse psychology. I think at least that dave + Mundivore are unlikely to be the final scum together, because it's doubtful dave could be confident enough in his own position to try and carry the game on his back.

VOTE: Mundivore
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Post Post #3471 (isolation #84) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:34 am

Post by UNOwen »

PlusJOYED's quickhammer was awful but I don't think dave+Plus is the team, and between them dave is the one I believe is scum.
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Post Post #3473 (isolation #85) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:41 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 2005, davesaz wrote:Here is a partial look on where I am. Still lots to look at.

duppin looked scummy from posts like which looks somewhat evasive, and which looks like an overt attempt to be chill about being scumread. Later posting like , , look like they are trying to find out other players alignments via discussion which is pretty towny. On balance I'm thinking town though my early reads are never strong.

Tayl0r was involved in a lot of the questioning from duppin, and the way she handled those posts seems to ignore the topic that duppin is trying to explore/explain/question and continue as though her version is truth. By not quoting the things she's asserting about duppin and failing to acknowledge the rebuttal points it makes it look like she wants to fit evidence to the read instead of the read to the evidence. I need to read her more but these interactions look scummy.

Jester / Hectic had a really good post that I spoilered in an earlier post -- looks town to me with the usual caveat that it's weak.

I need to re-read Norwegian's interactions with Tayl0r. I think there were points where I thought each of them looked like scum during the first reading, and that makes me doubt that it's coherent. Also looking at just those interactions is too narrow a focus, need to look at Norwegian's overall approach. Rather than try to make a call from possibly bad memory gonna have to make it a to-do.

Mundivore admitting they're working on a case but becoming less convinced is a good sign but not enough to get a real read from by itself.

I've seen Noraa post but can't remember the substance of her positions. Her iso is too long to approach it that way. Some of the tone as I've spot checked is cheerful and friendly enough but I'm unsure what that should mean.
This is the only "read" dave offered on Noraa day 1, and it strikes me as quite likely to be partner speak. Calling attention to a player to announce that you've noticed them but have no hint of an opinion alignment either way is strange, especially when there were other prominent players (shelly) that were ignored.
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Post Post #3479 (isolation #86) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:52 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3475, shellyc wrote: who do you think is daves partner?
Either duppin or Hectic. I was thinking I must be wrong about duppin, but then bugs was killed and the paranoia duppin expressed about that kill pretty much exactly matches my reaction to it, so I will be reviewing my Hectic read.

I believe the play here is to not execute regardless, but we should actually make use of the time available to us this time.
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Post Post #3487 (isolation #87) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 12:59 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3481, shellyc wrote:do we massclaim here or nah?

uno why have you failed to interact with me? I feel like you're constantly *not* evaluating me for some reason
We have interacted before, but I have had you as town for quite a while now. Perhaps at this stage of the game that needs to be checked but just from my memory I suspect that when I review your posts I will conclude that your interactions with Noraa are not likely to be scum together.
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Post Post #3491 (isolation #88) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:04 am

Post by UNOwen »

Since we won't be executing, massclaim gives mafia more information for free. So I would say no but I am open to persuasion on why it is a good idea.
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Post Post #3545 (isolation #89) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:30 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3542, davesaz wrote: Congrats on figuring out that I give up easily trying to read people with 500+ posts. :lol:
Well the point isn't that you gave up on trying to read noraa, it's that you felt it necessary to mention noraa at all.
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Post Post #3546 (isolation #90) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:35 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3528, PlusJOYED wrote: One post that stood out to me was that mundi thought me vs norwee was not TvT. It ended up being TvT, but to me that was an agenda pushed to elim me and/or norwee after one of us flipped green.
Also the fact that they stalled day 2 on Noraas elim made me think they were looking for an opportunity to give 1 more day of life for noraa as their partner.
This is not a great justification for thinking Mundi is scum. They had about three posts during day two, and none of them suggested any sort of resistance to Noraa's execution.
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Post Post #3547 (isolation #91) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:45 am

Post by UNOwen »

Hectic what was the Mini META from the start of the game based on?
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Post Post #3566 (isolation #92) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:56 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3548, PlusJOYED wrote:
In post 3245, Mundivore wrote:hey I missed a bunch of the thread at the end of last day. I've got a bit more time on my hands rn so I'll try to keep up.

@bugspray: probably a good idea to unvote so someone doesn't yolohammer, the day just started and there's a lot of analysis still available.
here
Okay, I do see how that post could be interpreted as stalling. There were a few players who wanted to avoid the day instantly ending though, and Mundivore's next post conceded that Noraa was "obvscum" so in context it didn't really look like an attempt to get her off the hook.
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Post Post #3567 (isolation #93) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:02 am

Post by UNOwen »

If shelly sticks with the claim then I'm inclined to believe her over duppin but I am expecting this to be some sort of gambit. I don't really understand why she has flipped on Plus so hard otherwise though, so maybe it is true.
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Post Post #3569 (isolation #94) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 10:16 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3568, PlusJOYED wrote:I've played 3 games now with scum shelly, all 3 she pushed me fairly hard.
why are you inclined to believe its some sort of gambit uno? To me that looks like a subtle setup so you can possibly save duppin while being relatively safe depending on how people react to the claim
It would not be the first time shelly has gone for a reaction test this game.
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Post Post #3633 (isolation #95) » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:22 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3574, Hectic wrote: Hang on, why would you voice this sentiment out loud? If shelly is scum, you've given her a green light to fakeclaim a guilty and win today with this.
I think a 1v1 developing is good, so if scum!shelly decided to push forward on the basis of my inclination to believe her then I am glad. If nothing else it saves me wasting time considering dave+you as a scum team.

Shelly claiming specific N3 tracker is pretty convenient and I agree that it only makes sense as a scum play if she is trying to save dave from death. I have not had a chance to look at her ISO yet but she interacted with Noraa loads and quite aggressively, it's difficult to imagine scum being so confident doing that. Maybe on review my mind will change.
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Post Post #3635 (isolation #96) » Wed Oct 14, 2020 5:39 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3634, duppin wrote:Could be to save dave but could also just be her trying to go for the win. Her treatment of plus leading up to the claim does to me feel like pocketing so could be an attempt at making sure she thought she had enough support to go for the claim

but her claim itself and the logic she has used since just makes it a bad claim. I actually thought she might still have been trying to do a reaction test hence asking her if she was hardclaiming because the claim was and i dont mean this in a disrespectful way, but it was just not a good claim at all
It's not Hectic+shelly. You+shelly is also a nonstarter. shelly+plus goes for the dave execution I think? At least, I cannot see any reason why they wouldn't. Dave is preparing to go hard reset so maybe this will change but right now if town he must look like a sitting duck for scum.
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Post Post #3639 (isolation #97) » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:00 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3442, shellyc wrote:EBWOP:
hectic
bugspray
plusjoy davesaz
duppin
UNO
mundivore
In post 3464, shellyc wrote:ok mylo time

bugspray > hectic nightkill is interesting. scum might be wanting to use hectics (incorrect?) SR on someone to push through this.

I kinda think plusjoy might be town now?? because plus can do weird things as town (read super recent town!plus game Mini Normal something MItGBSMoD) and I think hammer there is probably TSTBS + plus/noraa are prob not paired. here plus is solving with the (wrong) norway push instead of just coasting through.

daves vote looks worse, pretty opportunistic voting and dave had no trajectory of an SR on mundivore at all.
i kinda think duppin is scum now rather than uno, duppin has few interactions with noraa, duppin/dave/noraa is a very viable solve
Yes so I guess there is a point there. Earlier I was top scumread (and I can't imagine the Mundivore green flip improved matters) but now dave has made it into the solve based purely on the E-1. If me/Noraa was seen as likely, then I don't know why duppin being confirmed scum would change that. Nothing about the interactions me and duppin have had come to mind as ruling us out as a potential team.
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Post Post #3642 (isolation #98) » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:05 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3640, PlusJOYED wrote:I'm actually thinking we should hurry and nolim. At this point we're giving maf more material of whose being TR the most and who could be mislimed tomorrow
Strongly disagree. Tomorrows execution is between duppin/shelly, all that will change is we will have one less town. Besides, dave needs to have a chance to contribute so we can get a better understanding of where he is at.
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Post Post #3692 (isolation #99) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:13 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3671, shellyc wrote: I have never rolled TPR on this site until this game, i play chat mafia and had not much concept of crumbing

I said before. i think playing TPR is mainly to find out conftown = more valuable than town, and duppin was like a null read since forever for me
How does a 1-shot tracker find conftown when there are presumably two scum left?
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Post Post #3695 (isolation #100) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:20 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3654, duppin wrote:also regarding whether we should lim today or not, UNO is kind of right. Ever since shelly forced a 1v1 between me we can justify limming today simply because it's going to be the exact same players you need to solve tomorrow
I was saying we should don't need to rush the day to an end. I still believe we should not execute, even though the choice is the same whoever dies outside the 1v1 will rule things out for the remaining players.
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Post Post #3698 (isolation #101) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:23 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3694, shellyc wrote:if i got a result of "xxxx visited nobody" they have a statistically higher chance to be town, so we should not elim them
And if you get the result "xxxx visited the kill" then they have a near certainty to be scum. I don't see why you would not track someone you were suspicious of in this situation.
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Post Post #3699 (isolation #102) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 12:24 am

Post by UNOwen »

If scum no kill then obviously a decision will have to be made with what we've got, but that's not guaranteed and we lose nothing by finding out.
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Post Post #3781 (isolation #103) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:27 am

Post by UNOwen »

I
was
a little paranoid about being suckered by duppin/Hectic team townreading me but I just don't see Hectic as scum, so if that's what is happening then well played and RIP me.
In post 3728, Hectic wrote:The only thing which puts doubt on this is why shelly is claiming a guilt on DUPPIN rather than Plus (or Dave if he's not actually scum). I guess UNOwen's and Plus's reactions egged her on? They looked like they would believe shelly over duppin.
This is why duppin/dave remains an active possibility. It is a very risky play from scum shelly to go for the win in this way instead of banking on her town credibility to carry the day.
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Post Post #3782 (isolation #104) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:28 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3776, PlusJOYED wrote: I think dave is town, mainly cause saudade was very townie to me. When I read suadade, he played exactly the same as he did in 2163 to me, he just went for another slot. Dave strikes me as genuine too at this point, but i need to hear more + reread.
Dave is not Saudade's replacement.
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Post Post #3801 (isolation #105) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:04 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3790, Hectic wrote:UNOwen, do you scumread duppin over shelly?
Nah, I'm now leaning towards shelly as the scum here but I'm struggling to understand her motive. Mainly waiting for dave to surface so we can see what he has to say.

Executing outside the 1v1 seems a bad idea, even if it has a high chance of success. I'm ok with a massclaim though.
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Post Post #3816 (isolation #106) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 10:33 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3795, duppin wrote:dave could definitely be scum in fact I think it is very likely, but shelly is 100% scum. I believe we should always lim in me and shelly rather than delaying it especially since the only townread i am very confident in is UNO
Why do you have such confidence in me?
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Post Post #3830 (isolation #107) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:32 am

Post by UNOwen »

I am VT too.
In post 3824, shellyc wrote: lol?

"OK PLAYER X IS SCUM!"
"but they have no scum motivation!"
It's a real dilemma.
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Post Post #3832 (isolation #108) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:47 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3831, shellyc wrote:UNO thoughts on plus slot

you seem to have little-to-no-interest solving there for some reason
I believe he is town.
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Post Post #3841 (isolation #109) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:16 am

Post by UNOwen »

I don't think I have much authority on setup speculation, but agreed that this is looking like too much town power.
Intrigued to see how this will impact dave's analysis.
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Post Post #3843 (isolation #110) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:23 am

Post by UNOwen »

Plus, you realise you've only put duppin at E-2 right?
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Post Post #3849 (isolation #111) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:09 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3848, Hectic wrote:UNOwen, why aren't you helping me out here? Do you not see the same things I do?
I see exactly what you are seeing, shelly's claim and the way she has gone about it is suspicious as anything (hesitating in case of PR when having tracked a player to a kill is at odds with her "shoot first interrogate later" approach, tracking to look for town in a game with likely two scum is ridiculous, claiming to be confident on reading me based on a meta-tell I've got from one game, the pockety looking interactions with Plus today, etc.) but have a gnawing fear that:

a) I think shelly is scum because she has played erratically and in a way that doesn't make sense to me, but is in fact just how she rolls
b) I think dave is scum because he is not here

And that maybe I am the one in a pocket.
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Post Post #3860 (isolation #112) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:44 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3856, shellyc wrote:Another thing: hectic pointed out Norway’s check on bugspray making bugs near conftown which makes no sense from a commuter perspective as a commuter would want to eat the nightkill
Yep, there is no way Hectic commuted night 1 when three PRs had been outed so this looks really bad in light of claim.
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Post Post #3862 (isolation #113) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:07 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3861, duppin wrote: i am bit confused as to what you mean by this, are you suggesting hectic claimed to have commuted night 1?
Hectic should have had no worries about surviving to day 4, so he had no reason to out bugspray as the likely gunsmith clear. Doing that points the scum kill away from himself which is the opposite of what his role is useful for. If he commuted night 1 + 2 it is more understandable but also not credible.
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Post Post #3864 (isolation #114) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:05 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3863, duppin wrote: ah i understand now, thats actually a good point and kind of related to the initial read i gave on hectic this day (that he pushed town on bugs to provide an explanation for why he would still be alive), however it is wifom and i believe he is town at this point

its also a possobility he is a 1-shot and used it day 2 and but is doing it to introduce wifom into the next night since shelly seemed to spew him as the kill (dont comment on this hectic)
Norwegian was still around on day 2 so while it is more plausible I don't really buy commuting then either.

There is not much need to introduce wifom because Hectic guaranteed he doesn't die tonight the moment he claimed X-shot commuter, regardless of how many charges he has. Which means it is exactly the move he had to make if scum, as otherwise whichever of me/Plus/dave is still around would question why scum!shelly doesn't just kill him and push an UNO/duppin team for victory.
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Post Post #3867 (isolation #115) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:20 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3865, duppin wrote: not really true because if he is a 1-shot then the bugs comment could suggest he had already used his ability
The bugs comment suggests that either way. Shelly doesn't kill Hectic because him flipping X-shot commuter would
probably
be enough to convince the town in Plus/dave to at least reconsider.
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Post Post #3868 (isolation #116) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:31 am

Post by UNOwen »

It's tough, because on the one hand there's:

- dodgy dave stubbornly sitting on his hands the entire day
- Plus hammering without a claim twice and ending day 3 way too early
- shelly with an unconvincing and conveniently timed claim

Individually any one of them looks scummier to me than either duppin or Hectic but together there is no combination that satisfyingly explains how they've played today. Shelly sticking her neck out to save dave by going after duppin is a strange risk if that's the team, even stranger if it's Plus/shelly (which I doubt, but suppose is still possible).

On the other hand, duppin and Hectic are playing really clean games and there's not much I take issue with. But with how this day has gone I can totally see them making sense as a team.
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Post Post #3871 (isolation #117) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:39 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3869, duppin wrote: kind of - shelly had already tried to push the idea that hectic was the best kill for me which i called out so even before hectic claimed the kill on him could possibly backfire especially the way hectic aligned himself with me and pushed on shelly. You seem to be implying that the only reason for scum not to kill hectic as town tonight if we no lim is due to his claim
You're right that the Hectic kill might have been a risk anyway, but Plus at least seemed to be expecting it to happen even in the shelly town world.
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Post Post #3873 (isolation #118) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:42 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3870, duppin wrote: the issue is that if plus is town then this game is already lost and i dont really have a problem with that itself, but i have an issue with the lack of effort. he talks about iso diving, wanting to revaluate etc but hasn't done any of that yet still puts out a vote in mylo. I would lie if i said that it did not bother me a little because i think he is more likely to be town over dave
I do agree here. Kind of expecting it to be me who will end up making the call, but if I die tonight and Plus is town I really hope he takes his time to consider his vote. Especially when dave is just floating around and not saying anything, even though this day is literally being dragged to deadline just to give him the chance to correct that.
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Post Post #3875 (isolation #119) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:56 am

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In post 3874, duppin wrote: plus was pushing the idea very early on this day that if hectic survived then he would push him tomorrow because he would be the most likely partner, he didnt state for who but and didnt respond to when i asked him to elaborate but later kind of followed up on it and said he was the most likely partner for me. I initially thought his logic was a bti weird, but then when i realised he mixed up the replacements it made a bit more sense to me, but i am a bit troubled by him not revaluating associations after realising he messed up the replacements. So yeah ultimately i think he is lazy town or scum and at the moment i am leaning more towards the former because I think dave is more suspicious
Yeah he was, but I think shelly at that stage would still have gone for the kill against Hectic because UNO/duppin scum is likely to be an easier sell in endgame than Hectic/duppin based on our comparative presence in thread.
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Post Post #3880 (isolation #120) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:19 am

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In post 3877, duppin wrote:oh i misread your post actually - i think she initially wanted to lim hectic but after plus started pushing me and hectic as the pair it would be bad for her to kill hectic especially if plus is town
Right, but Plus had dropped that push and returned to debating between me/dave as your scum partner until Hectic claimed. It's only now that Hectic has claimed does shelly absolutely not kill him, and it's only with the commuter claim that Hectic has the reason he needs to make it to day 5 and continue to try to convince people on shelly scum. So while this could just be how it turned out, from my perspective if he is scum it's also the claim he needed to make.
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Post Post #3881 (isolation #121) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:20 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3879, davesaz wrote: Not being here <> sitting on hands. And one thing you can be 100% sure of, if I say I haven't been here, I haven't been here.
That you post stuff like this when you are here is why I say you are sitting on your hands.
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Post Post #3902 (isolation #122) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:53 am

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So you guys think I am getting night killed then?
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Post Post #3905 (isolation #123) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:01 pm

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In post 3903, duppin wrote:if youre town then most likely yes
I think it is 50/50 depending on which of me or Plus looks more persuadable to the scum.
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Post Post #3907 (isolation #124) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:03 pm

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In post 3904, Hectic wrote:it doesn't matter whether scum targets Plus or you to win (if it's Dave + shelly)
I mean I get the fear that Plus might just auto vote in endgame, but if I make it I don't know why you would think that because I have doubts it means the game is lost.
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Post Post #3908 (isolation #125) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:05 pm

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Hectic why did you not push for a mass claim earlier?
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Post Post #3910 (isolation #126) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:09 pm

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There are 6 players left?
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Post Post #3914 (isolation #127) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:10 pm

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Yes, that's what I've been saying all day lol
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Post Post #3917 (isolation #128) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:25 pm

Post by UNOwen »

In post 3911, Hectic wrote: I didn't want scum to know I was a commuter, and thought I could convince everyone of shelly!scum without claiming.
So I appreciate this is better asked tomorrow, but I might be dead by then and scum probably don't attempt to kill you here anyway. What advantage could be gained by stopping scum knowing you are commuter?
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Post Post #3919 (isolation #129) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:35 pm

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Yeah exactly, so how does it improve the situation when day 5 comes around and all six players are still alive?
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Post Post #3921 (isolation #130) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:55 pm

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In post 3920, Hectic wrote:It's in the situation where we launched today, we'd go to 5 tomorrow and have 2 phases
Oh right. I was assuming that you've been on board with not executing for all of this day but I guess on review onwards is where you decided on trying to get get shelly executed?
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Post Post #3938 (isolation #131) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:05 am

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In post 3921, UNOwen wrote: Oh right. I was assuming that you've been on board with not executing for all of this day but I guess on review onwards is where you decided on trying to get get shelly executed?
Or rather, it registered that you were ok with executing but I assumed that it wasn't serious and you realised it wasn't going to happen. Some of your posts make more sense if you were thinking that I was ever voting between duppin or shelly today.

Questions for Hectic:
- It wasn't followed through, but why did you ever entertain pivoting to dave when you knew you had unrevealed information that increases the chances of shelly scum?
- Why did you think you could convince everyone to ignore your own advice about mass claiming before executing?
In post 3650, Hectic wrote:We could, but just promise me you launch shelly if I'm dead. Honestly, it's mostly selfish reasons that I die and then shelly manages to escape.
- What was this all about?
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Post Post #3942 (isolation #132) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:13 am

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In post 3940, Hectic wrote: Do you mean after I started pushing shelly? Because I started hard scumreading her and thought others would also see her as obvscum.
Ok. I'd only ever get behind executing confirmed scum in this situation without a mass claim, but I guess I can believe you thought you could persuade town otherwise.
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Post Post #3946 (isolation #133) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:18 am

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Increasingly going towards shelly
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Post Post #3947 (isolation #134) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:19 am

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In post 3945, Hectic wrote:Would it help if I showed all the times I softed tracker in the hopes scum would notice and nightkill me for it?
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Post Post #3952 (isolation #135) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:25 am

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I am satisfied.
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Post Post #3953 (isolation #136) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:29 am

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In post 3882, davesaz wrote:Looking at it from the true claim point of view... Prompting your track target to at least crumb/soft if a PR is a +town move when there hasn't been a massclaim. Tracker is a really tricky role to play, especially as 1-shot and even more so as night-specific. I think the targeting on a weak TR is a little weird, unless the TR was semi-fake to instill a false sense of security in the target's ability to get away with making the kill.
With 2 scum left and a night-specific shot, she'd be in a use it or lose it position, and tracking a largely scumread target would risk coming up blank because scumread!scum shouldn't make kills.
I feel tracker is one of the weakest investigatives. I got really annoyed in the Gay Mafia team game when I saved my tracker shot for later and tracked my target to a kill, but almost got ignored because a couple people kept trying to elim me. I chose a previous TR to track in that game because Occam said the only solve was that one of my TRs had to be scum. Bottom line it's quite possible as a true claim from the mechanics and targeting point of view. There is more to say about Shelly, and balance. I'll make those points later.
This is an interesting argument by dave, because he is proposing why shelly might have targeted duppin while ignoring all the actual reasons shelly gave for tracking duppin.
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Post Post #3954 (isolation #137) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:33 am

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In post 3923, shellyc wrote: ehhhh im fine with no elim if we just get duppin tmr then hectic and finish the job off

seriously. another thing is that dave is a mechanically-oriented player, and im a newb at heart, so why wouldn't me and dave talk about the best claim to make? dave/me makes no sense at all, uno/me doesn't make sense because UNO can just push through and dave/uno/shelly/plus all vote duppin and finish the job.

me/hectic and me/duppin are impossible. I am not paired with anyone here.

even though you can say me/dave/plus have been more individually scummy, scum is a TEAM and simply the only way to explain this mylo is that hectic/duppin are scum
Not much of a fan of this post, because it appears to be trying to convince me of my own argument by just stating it with more certainty.
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Post Post #3959 (isolation #138) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:09 am

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In post 3955, Hectic wrote:YES ONOWEN

you have no idea how happy I am to see you finally seeing the light. now we just need to get that + guy out of the darkness
See now I fear I am being manipulated again. :P

So this is where I am unless I survive to day 5 and go back to doubt and indecision:

It remains possible that I have been completely fooled by the entire scum team deciding to townread me, in particular duppin's reasons for trusting me reminded me of Noraa and I really don't think my day 1 ISO was all that great considering most of it was spent tunnelling town. I don't understand why he wavered on his Hectic read but not on me when from his point of view Hectic has been backing him up all along and I have been the one to avoid committing, so if anything I should look like the opportunistic scum waiting to see which way the wind blows. It kind of looked like it was a reaction to Plus mentioning the duppin/Hectic team possibility. He certainly has had a suspiciously explain-y tone at times which I have put down to personality. Finally, the independent raising of the replace out theory by Hectic and duppin sticks in my mind, it could suggest that this was something scum talked about in pt.

But overall I end up thinking that this is just paranoia and that the scum team is simply shelly/dave. Hectic seemed genuine about thinking there was going to be an execution today, so the motive for the commuter claim as scum is weakened (he does not need to explain his survival to day 5 if the scumpartner he's defending is about to get executed). bugspray stuff is still a problem, but my instinct would probably have been to point it out without thinking too. And does duppin scum call attention to this if that was his partners play?

shelly's claim requires believing that despite being super confident this entire game, she got worried when she had a guilty result on her track. It also requires believing that she chose not to track the players she was suspicious of. Stitching up duppin instead of Plus is strange, but maybe the idea was that Plus would be too obvious. Perhaps she was worried she would not win in final three, perhaps she was just impatient and wanted to make a bold play, perhaps she intended to claim it was a reaction test but decided to press ahead when it looked like it might fly. It's a big risk, but I can see her going for it.

I think Hectic has a good argument that a lot of what she says sounds fake and it's difficult to imagine her believing in it, going all the way back to the Jackson push from day 1. It's probably worth comparing this with some of her town games to see if this is AI or if it's just how she plays but in isolation it looks clearly scummy.

With dave idk, it might just be because I haven't seen a lot. This day has gone all the way to deadline to allow time for him to do his hard reset and all he has offered is a mechanical defence that soft supports shelly but does not account for Hectic's claim or what she has actually said. It's a shame if he is town and this is all he has time for, but I would have expected town in this situation to have a bit more urgency in providing relevant content. He had no problem offering weak reads when he entered () so I don't trust this "I have bad reads" explanation. Going back, he was prepared to hammer the Redados wagon because he agreed with it despite not once suggesting so during day 1, and he wordlessly echoed the Noraa/Mundivore/UNO solve despite claiming he had his own reasons which he never had the chance to expand on. It's not much and they feel like lazy reasons to say he is scum, but the simplest explanation is that he is and is just attempting to coast it out.
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Post Post #3960 (isolation #139) » Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:10 am

Post by UNOwen »

VOTE: No Execution
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Post Post #4126 (isolation #140) » Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:55 am

Post by UNOwen »

gg all
fun game, I'm glad town got the win though scum probably deserved it more considering how well they played and only really got undone by a couple of things
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Post Post #4130 (isolation #141) » Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:58 am

Post by UNOwen »

In post 4128, shellyc wrote: lesson learnt to improve at fakeclaiming
Don't think you really should've claimed at all tbh
Bussed dave, kill Hectic and stitch up either me or duppin I think you would have had it.

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