Mini 630: Council of Eville: Game Ovah!

[Megatheory]

Hello! I'm replacing Twiglees. It appears I will be pretty busy over the weekend (family party tomorrow, then helping my mom prepare for her vacation on sunday), so I might not be able to read the thread until Monday.

@MOD: A votecount would be awesome.

[Megatheory]

Oh yeah,

Unvote

just in case.

/sleep

[Megatheory]

Ugh... I haven't been able to write my analysis yet, but I have read the thread. I'll get it done tomorrow. Basically, I don't think we should lynch either of SC or alvinz today and I think Skillit is scum. Details tomorrow, promise. I'm just too tired to write it now.

[Megatheory]

First, I want to go over StrangerCoug and alvinz95 because I think it's likely that one of them will be lynched today, and they are both hot topics of discussion.

StrangerCoug

: Before I replaced in this game, I read a different game with him (and goatrevolt) where he was lynched for largely the same behavior he is exhibiting now. I've looked over his posts and although he has done suspicious things, there's nothing there that convinces me that he is scum. Repeated OMGUSing is a solid scum tell, but that's not enough to lynch him. I don't think he is town, either, it's too early to tell with a player like him. I'd rather he did not survive to endgame, but I see no good reason to lynch him today.

alvinz95

: alvinz behavior looks like cornered scum,

but

I think he could be an obstinate, frustrated townie. I'd rather wait a day or two before lynching him, but I do think he is probably scum. Kinda wishy washy, but I get a strange feeling from him. One important thing to note is he seems to only suspect SC and Goat, and his case against Goat is pure OMGUS.

FoS alvinz95 but I do not want to lynch him today.

But I get the feeling that he will be the lynch today.

Skillit

: Like I said before, I think Skillit is scum. In general I don't like his reasons for voting SC in post 53, but I especially find his tattling accusation to be useless. Annoyance is a terrible reason to suspect someone. I definitely don't think SC's "tattling" was scummy, even if it was strange. That, by itself, doesn't make Skillit scum, but I do think a scum would build that into their case.

In post 97, he makes a summary of the battle between alvinz and Goat. He says he posts it for clarification purposes, but after confirmation is given, he does not give an opinion in his next two posts. Why did he want clarification if he wasn't going to follow up on it until he was called out on it? He says he was sidetracked, but he could have easily added his stance in with those two posts. In fact, he wrote a long paragraph in first post after the summary

about

the summary, but does not take a side!

He says

my sance on Alvinz is that his actions are scumy, but dont

prove

to me that he is scum.

This is my stance on him, so I can't fault Skillit for that. However, he votes alvinz after he asks to be lynched. That's a bizarre time to vote, IMO, as even though asking to be lynched

should

be a null tell so that scum are not encouraged to use it, in my experience it is almost always done by townies. Even then, it should be a

null tell

. In everything alvinz has done, that would be, IMO, the least of his sins.

Skillit also uses the fact that some of his stances are merely "his opinion" as a defense. How are we supposed to determine someone's alignment if anything they say can be dismissed as an opinion? This seems like a strange defense coming from Skillit when he rebuts SC's defense in post 64, by, partially, stating that we have to guess at SC's motives. We have to guess

everybody's

motives from time to time, and it's really unhelpful to simply dismiss arguments as being a matter of opinion.

In summary, I think these things together indicates that Skillit is probably scum

Vote: Skillit

I want to touch on the other players, but I'm going to do that later today.

[Megatheory]

...I bet you everything I own that players that look really,

REALLY

scummy are simply terrible townies and that players that look really,

REALLY

townie are really excellent scum.

For the first, sometimes but not always. For the second, almost never.

[Megatheory]

(btw who u replacing?)

Twiglees, who never posted.

[Megatheory]

And now for the rest:

Styro/Gojira

: I have nothing on Gojira. His only content post looked very neutral to me. Styro, on the other hand, looks quite scummy. The worst is his first content post:

Ok, just read all 9 pages and I fail to see why people haven't come to their senses on SC yet. Lots of tattleing along (more than once), very opportunistic, and extreme panic-omgus. Scummy as hell.

I think alvinz is right, SC today

Vote:Stranger Coug

This is all you have to say after reading 9 pages? You don't have to summarize or state opinions on every player, but coming out of what is essentially a reread with already stated suspicions on a player who is already under heavy fire is awfully suspicious.

FoS Styro

Goatrevolt

: Goat looks very towny. In fact, he looks like a SUPER townie. After rereading his posts, I find that I've repeated a few of the things he already said. That's either very good or very bad. I would keep a close eye on him just to be safe.

veerus

: veerus looks very towny also. He doesn't have a lot of posts, though, and they aren't very long either. Not much to say other than that.

cerebus3

:

The case on Alvinz is identical to the case on SC, yet people are excusing SC for being erratic and not seeing if the same can be applied to alvinz.

Personally, I believe that both acted scummy, but I am leaning toward SC for now because being a bad player doesn't change the fact that what he did was suspicious, and if you think it DOES excuse him, then you at the very least owe it to alvinz to consider it excusing him as well. Doing otherwise is inconsistent.

At this point though, I think they are about equal and I could be swayed one way or the other pretty easily for now.

The cases on those two are definitely not identical. They are being suspected for very different reasons. SC is getting a pass for metagame reasons, which are unsatisfying but give the town a better chance of winning. I haven't seen any other alvinz games and others aren't expressing a positive metagame read on him. It's really, really strange for you to say this when your position has been anti-SC for most of your posts.

FoS cerebus3

Rage

: I have a neutral read on Rage. He has done some following of other's votes and reasoning, but other than that, I haven't seen anything of any interest. I will say, however, that

if you are in too many games you should reduce the number of games you are in rather than expecting us to compensate for you. (bold for visibility, not emphasis)

Jshark/joonster

: I don't have a read on joonster (how can I with so few posts?) but I found this strange:

Goatrevolt: so if we are not in the random voting stage (as you suggest), then are you saying you would be comfortable with lynching alvinz95 right now? or, are you perhaps putting pressure on him with your vote to see how he would react, and to see what kind of discussion ensues (which sounds an awful lot like the random voting stage)? something tells me it's the latter...also, you ask us to "wait" quite often, when you are the fastest moving player of the game so far

Jshark seems OK. his read on cerebus is interesting.

forbiddanlight

: On my first read, I thought she was staying under the radar and I had a neutral read on her. Looking at her posts in isolation, she looks like a townie. Maybe her infrequent and short posts gave me the wrong impression.

GhostWriter

: NEED MOAR POST. Most of what he posted has to do with alvinz, and I think it's stuff that was already posted or was pretty obvious. I think. It's hard to tell with so little to go on.

[Megatheory]

Liability as in "I do not want him to survive in the endgame". I think the pressure against him brought 'scum backed into a corner' but wasn't quite worthy of a lynch. The overall pressure on StrangerCoug looks to me like a

distraction

, if you will, from the pressure on Alvinz and ), and as the pressure dies he's been turning into 'unhelpful townie' (townie meaning part of the town, not pro-town).

FoS Rage

I knew your vote was bad and your explanation doesn't help. Why would we need to lynch him today if you are concerned about the endgame?

[Megatheory]

EBYOP:

Edit by yay of post?

[Megatheory]

... Skillit is off camping so we wont hear anything from him...

Crap.

When he comes back, we have to put pressure back on him. I don't want him to be forgotten.

Anyway, I would be already voting Rage it if wasn't for Skillit, so

Unvote Vote Rage

[Megatheory]

@mod: Votecount, please.

[Megatheory]

I've been thinking about it and I want to lynch Rage. I think he may have been trying to redirect from Skillit, acting extra scummy just prior to his trip thinking this town would be reluctant to lynch him after the SC and alvinz affairs. I think his alvinz vote might have been a twitchy scum move.

[Megatheory]

@Megatheory

I think he may have been trying to redirect from Skillit, acting extra scummy just prior to his trip thinking this town would be reluctant to lynch him after the SC and alvinz affairs.

Proof please.

I'm saying two things here:
1) Rage may be trying to redirect attention away from Skillit.
2) Rage thinks this town will be reluctant to lynch him while he is away.
#1 can't be proven until one of you is dead. Call it a hunch, if you will. It's based mostly on timing. Before you voted for alvinz, Skillit had three votes and was getting a lot of attention.
#2 is more important. I think you expect this town to let you go because you are going on vacation.

If you are town, you aren't doing a good job of "exposing" those who are on your bandwagon. Your plan is counterproductive and I think at this point you should be lynched.

[Megatheory]

It would be nice if sthar8 had posted what he already had done, but whatever... Let's wait.

[Megatheory]

sthar8

: You've given me a lot to think about. To answer your question, I found Rage's alvinz vote very scummy and his explanation poor. Apparently, his excuse is that he is trying to draw votes from scum. That wasn't really obvious until later, so he may have manufactured that excuse. On the other hand, what he is doing doesn't make sense for a scum to do. I think he might expect this town to not lynch him given the record we have so far.

I'm a little less sure that I want to lynch him, but I'm not ready to unvote yet, either.

alvinz

: could you possibly elaborate on why you thing Goatrevolt is scum? You've been mostly asserting that he is, but I don't think you've provided any good evidence yet.

See, I've had a scummy feeling about Goatrevolt, but it's nothing I can really prove yet. This post, though, made my skin crawl:

I don't want to lynch SC for a lot of the reasons Mega brought up. I can't really read his playstyle very well, because he's made these same kind of scummy mistakes in every game I've played with him. For that reason, as of yet, I haven't seen anything that would really make me think he's scum.

I'd rather lynch someone who I think has a decent chance of being scum, rather than someone who is always scummy and is tough to read.

I actually agree with almost the entirety of Megatheory's post, and am still happy with my vote on skillit.

This looks like buddying to me. Nothing much else has caught my attention about Goat, but if there is something, I think it would be in the alvinz case. Vote patterns would be a good place to look, also. I would be doing it myself right now, but I really need to reread in the other game I'm in as I've kind of neglected it.

Skillit

: You said the case against you is nothing but asserting that you're scum. That's not true. This is the case on you that I posted:

...In general I don't like his reasons for voting SC in post 53, but I especially find his tattling accusation to be useless. Annoyance is a terrible reason to suspect someone. I definitely don't think SC's "tattling" was scummy, even if it was strange. That, by itself, doesn't make Skillit scum, but I do think a scum would build that into their case.

In post 97, he makes a summary of the battle between alvinz and Goat. He says he posts it for clarification purposes, but after confirmation is given, he does not give an opinion in his next two posts. Why did he want clarification if he wasn't going to follow up on it until he was called out on it? He says he was sidetracked, but he could have easily added his stance in with those two posts. In fact, he wrote a long paragraph in first post after the summary

about

the summary, but does not take a side!

He says

my sance on Alvinz is that his actions are scumy, but dont

prove

to me that he is scum.

This is my stance on him, so I can't fault Skillit for that. However, he votes alvinz after he asks to be lynched. That's a bizarre time to vote, IMO, as even though asking to be lynched

should

be a null tell so that scum are not encouraged to use it, in my experience it is almost always done by townies. Even then, it should be a

null tell

. In everything alvinz has done, that would be, IMO, the least of his sins.

Skillit also uses the fact that some of his stances are merely "his opinion" as a defense. How are we supposed to determine someone's alignment if anything they say can be dismissed as an opinion? This seems like a strange defense coming from Skillit when he rebuts SC's defense in post 64, by, partially, stating that we have to guess at SC's motives. We have to guess

everybody's

motives from time to time, and it's really unhelpful to simply dismiss arguments as being a matter of opinion.

In summary, I think these things together indicates that Skillit is probably scum

Vote: Skillit

I want to touch on the other players, but I'm going to do that later today.

I'd like to hear your response.

GohstWriter

: You're looking very scummy to me right now. I'd like to hear who your suspects are, and maybe some analysis. Right now you look like scum who is staying under the radar and riding town suspicions.

Like I said, I'd be looking at Goatrevolt (and forbiddanlight, too) in depth, but I need to reread in my other game. Maybe later this week.

[Megatheory]

Like I said, I'd be looking at Goatrevolt (and forbiddanlight, too) in depth, but I need to reread in my other game. Maybe later this week.

Me too eh? I haven't the faintest why.

Like I said when I first analyzed you, at first I thought you were trying to stay under the radar, but later I thought you were protown. I think a second look at you would be a good idea, especially after you have posted more content.

[Megatheory]

In post 97, he makes a summary of the battle between alvinz and Goat. He says he posts it for clarification purposes, but after confirmation is given, he does not give an opinion in his next two posts. Why did he want clarification if he wasn't going to follow up on it until he was called out on it?

1) this implies that i would only have "weighed in" when it was demanded.

The problem is, you

didn't

weigh in until it was demanded.

2)

I had intended it to be read as a precurser to an actual post.The point was to first make sure everyone (including myself) was fully up to speed as i was geting the feeling most people were skimming the goat and alvinz issue and to see what developed when everything was summed up nicely. Also i only had time today to summarize but please take it however you want.

3) the fact that my next few posts were not my stance on the issue in no way implies that i was refusing to take a stance, merely that i was addressing another issue.

Fair enough. It seemed strange to me that you would take the time to explain your summary post without making a decision regarding what the summary was about.

4) when i started looking back at the issue i had goat in my head as this semantics chasing tenacious bulldog and alvinz as the unlucky target, as i reread it i began to see it another way. i needed to summ it up on paper in front of me briefly so that i could look at the whole picture at once. while i was looking over this i figured id post it for the rest of the town to look have. perhaps like an "exhibit A" anyway, i was still on the scale, not ready to have a final weigh in when i posted it the summ. since my stance had shifted so drastically i wanted to do what i could to make sure my new impression of the chain was as accurate as possible.

Your summary is definitely a good thing, though any townie who relied on your summary rather than looking at the actual posts and reaching conclusions on their own could potentially make poor decisions. Goat agreed that the summary covered the issue, but alvinz never did. I definitely understand your stance shift there.

He says he was sidetracked, but he could have easily added his stance in with those two posts. In fact, he wrote a long paragraph in first post after the summary about the summary, but does not take a side!

1) the so called "long paragraph" was an answer to someone claiming that my summing post was designed to look like i was saying a lot without saying anything - which it was not.
2) about 4 days of time passed from "initial summ" to "final stance". i dont usually spend much weekend time at home, work gets busy; we were not backed up against a deadline and i didnt realize that summing it up demanded such an immediate response.
3)nobody had even asked me for my stance when i started talking about the issue. its not like i had posted that as a stalling tatic or something, it was just my way of entering the discussion formally. steppin up to the plate so to speak.

I see. This all happened when I had not yet replaced in the game, so I didn't factor in the timing.

he votes alvinz after he asks to be lynched. That's a bizarre time to vote, IMO, as even though

asking to be lynched should be a null tell so that scum are not encouraged to use it

, in my experience it is almost always done by townies. Even then, it should be a null tell. In everything alvinz has done, that would be, IMO, the least of his sins.

1) just because in

your

experience something is a null or town tell does not mean that it is to everyone. if in your opinion demanding to be lynched and refusing to answer questions isnt scummy great. it is to me. to you what was the least of his sins was to me his greatest.
2) i dont understand the underlined part specifically at all. if it was considered a null tell or a town tell than they might use it on us, but if doing something is looked at as scummy as a rule why would scum be encoureged to do it?
3)i had said in my previous post that he was at "strike 2" status - which to me is like saying he was just one telling mistake away from swaying me. he responded with (to me) a whopping tell.

If this really all comes down to experience, then how can any town rely on asking for a lynch as a tell? The solution, I think, is to treat it as a null tell. Now, I can't fold my arms and pout while you think it's a scum tell. That's part of the reason I think it should be a null tell, so townie's don't develop pointless suspicions of other townies over things that come down to experience.

Skillit also uses the fact that some of his stances are merely "his opinion" as a defense.

i used this as a defense only when i said that i read someones statement one way and was then told i was wrong. Was there any other issue i said this? that wasn't even a stance really it was an impression of a post.

After my first read, I thought you had said this more than once, but i could actually only find it one time. Considering how long your posts are, I thought it was in there somewhere else but I just couldn't find it. I probably should have highlighted that fact in my initial case. Sorry about that.

All in all, I think some of my accusations against you boil down to bad timing, while others are truly matters of opinion. After this, you're lower on my list of suspects. Your style seems more clear and less antagonistic, which helps a lot.

LOL, I've neglected my other game again. If you don't hear from me for a few days, it's because I'm rereading my other game.

[Megatheory]

I think my suspicion of Goatrevolt is probably just paranoia, but I do intend to look at him again some time this week.

I still want to hear from alvinz on why he thinks Goat is scum.

@forbiddanlight:

: What specifically makes you think Skillit is scum? What particular reasons from yesterday stick out for you?

We need more content from GhostWriter. He was riding town suspicions all day yesterday.

[Megatheory]

I'm still pissed off about Forbiddan's hammer, but I guess there's no use crying over spilt blood. Or maybe that's the point of this game, I don't know. Either way, I don't think that is suggestive of Forbiddan being scum. I'd actually argue that it's the opposite.

Did you miss the part where forbiddan reserved the hammer vote? In reality, StrangerCoug is the actual hammer vote since she expressed her intent.

[Megatheory]

So we have a doc and/or the Mafia decided not to kill anybody. I know I'm stating the obvious, but I'm throwing it out there.

Before I say anything else,

vote: forbiddanlight

. I hate the speed at which you hammered Rage, and you did not allow him the chance to explain his thinking when I put him at L-1. Denying the town information like you did is scummy.

Like what I said to Goat, did you forget the part where forbiddan claimed the hammer? This essentially makes your vote the hammer instead of hers.

[Megatheory]

@forbiddanlight:: What specifically makes you think Skillit is scum? What particular reasons from yesterday stick out for you?

Were you not one of the people pushing for a skillit wagon yesterday?

Yes, but from what I remember about yesterday, forbiddan's suspicions had more to do with Skillit's writing style than anything actually scummy. That trend seems to be continuing today. That's a bad reason to suspect anybody. This is one of the reasons why I want to take a closer look at forbiddan. I haven't been able to yet.

[Megatheory]

So we have a doc and/or the Mafia decided not to kill anybody. I know I'm stating the obvious, but I'm throwing it out there.

Before I say anything else,

vote: forbiddanlight

. I hate the speed at which you hammered Rage, and you did not allow him the chance to explain his thinking when I put him at L-1. Denying the town information like you did is scummy.

Like what I said to Goat, did you forget the part where forbiddan claimed the hammer? This essentially makes your vote the hammer instead of hers.

I legitimately wanted a case out of him before he died, as he was guilty of a contradiction I wanted him to explain. I agree with Goatrevolt that forbiddanlight was too fast with the hammer, whether she reserved it or not. I was happier with a Rage lynch than I was previously, but I was not ready for Day 1 to end yet.

So basically, you wanted to pressure Rage, correct? You knew forbiddan had reserved the hammer, correct?

If both are true, than your vote is an awfully poor plan. Rage already had five votes on him, and forbiddan's pre-hammer counts as a sixth vote. This means he was effectively at L-1.

Anyone voting for Rage would give forbiddan the opportunity to hammer. You can't control her vote, so you had no idea when she would hammer. Barring certain power roles, you wouldn't have known her alignment yesterday, so why on earth would you trust her? We know you don't believe she is innocent because of your vote today.

Therefore, I believe the hammer is your responsibility. Don't try to pass the buck to someone who's vote was effectively already there.

[Megatheory]

I assumed that she would have allowed enough time for me to see a case from him. For obvious reasons, I was wrong; however, I still feel her actions are inexcusable.

This is really just repeating what you already said.

Let me put it this way: why did you trust forbiddan to wait?

[Megatheory]

This is also an indicator to me that she didn't plan any defense past that first line, meaning that she didn't anticipate any real trouble, and that she thought we would all buy the defense. If you were scum, and you didn't think you would get any heat from hammering a townie, wouldn't you go for it?

Here's the problem. I never plan defenses. I didn't even plan that. Megatheory basically gave it to me. I went into today not expecting the hammer to matter like at all. I also am horrid on the defensive. I'm not saying that's an excuse, but something to bear in mind if and when I flip. I'm really not sure what you are after, but I do hope you look closely at the people who are "Half a mind to vote me" coattailing you and SC. To be honest, I feel SC is playing his normal pro town game. I don't know about you, you could just be pushing the lynch, but my gut says much as I would love to have you lynched, and see you flip scum, you aren't the play. I stand by skillit no matter how weak everyone sees my reasoning.

I didn't give you anything. I think both you and SC are equally responsible for the quick hammer. After yesterday, I thought at least one of you two were scum. I thought it was unfair for SC to pass the buck completely onto you and scummy to vote you for it. That doesn't mean you didn't need to defend yourself.

[Megatheory]

Currently re-reading....

I'm pissed how FL and SC got lynch happy on Rage.

Still going with StrangeCoug ATM

Vote: StrangeCoug

Maybe you missed it. Do you still think Goat is scum? Why or why not?

[Megatheory]

I've looked into Goat and I can't find anything seriously scummy. There may have been a few things that caught my attention before, but everything he's done looks protown in the end.

Goat

: You don't seem to suspect alvinz anymore. Why is that?

[Megatheory]

Sorry, peoples, I'm a little bit behind. I just replaced in a game that I've had a hard time analyzing, so I was reading that. I'm going to get to analyzing forbiddan in detail in a day or two.

[Megatheory]

It's hard to be motivated to analyze forbiddanlight when she is likely to be lynched. I think she is probably scum, however she's been the focus of the day and there hasn't been much discussion of anyone but her. The speed of her wagon seemed awfully fast and a lot of the people on the Rage lynch are voting forbiddan now. Not sure what to think yet.

[Megatheory]

Hmm... Well, veerus was voting forbiddan on the votecount before last. I need to keep up better, apparently.

[Megatheory]

What all is forbiddanlight guilty of? OMGUS, self-voting, straw man arguments,

argumenta ad hominem

, blaming others for her actions... Yeah. I'm ready to get rid of her.

Confirm vote: forbiddanlight

I see a forbiddanlight and StrangeCoug team, or a StrangeCoug/Goat, or a Goat/FL.

More on the FL/SC.

I think I'll deduce what happens when FL dies.

unvote, Vote: FL

This is basically the position you put forth yesterday. You still haven't explained it in any way that would help the town.

Vote alvinz95

I think some pressure in alvinz's direction is a good idea at this point. His play is going beyond the "frustrated townie" theory. If he can't come up with some good reasons for his suspicions, I think there's a good chance he is scum.

The forbiddan lynch can wait. I'm positive she's the best play for today, but we need to expand our focus on other people if we want to keep this day productive.

I see a forbiddanlight and StrangeCoug team, or a StrangeCoug/Goat, or a Goat/FL.

More on the FL/SC.

Um, seriously? How do any of these work. Especially SC/FL? SC STARTED the day attacking me. If we were a scum team, I'd like to think the previous night we'd have come up with my defense and how he was gonna back off. Bussing actually makes little sense since I was barely being looked at D1. Goat, I'd cede as a possible scum partner to me given the way I attacked him last. The only problem will be my flip :S.

Initially, I saw the exchange between you and SC as possible distancing. Later I wasn't so sure, but you did defend SC on day one in ways that go beyond his meta.

[Megatheory]

forbiddan, you're not helping. If that wasn't blatantly obvious already.

Post with content coming this weekend.

[Megatheory]

We have gone beyond you a little. I tried to create some discussion from/about alvinz and that seems to be productive, even if there isn't a lot of it. That doesn't really surprise me as you are pretty much the lynch at this point. It's hard to get towns to focus on others when there is such an obvious target such as yourself.

If you really want more discussion, you have to make it. Don't blame us for things you aren't doing.

[Megatheory]

Unvote Vote: forbiddanlight

I really think we need to move forward and it doesn't seem like we will until forbiddanlight is lynched. We can't have a repeat of this tomorrow. Everyone needs to push on more suspects.

I'm certain that if forbiddan is scum, then SC is most likely scum with her.

alvinz looks like town to me at this point. He brought up some good stuff on the forbiddan/SC pair, but I still don't understand why he thought Goat was scum yesterday. Maybe it's something he can't articulate, I don't know.

[Megatheory]

(2:11 mountainous is definitely a fair setup, imo).

Rolefishing?

[Megatheory]

I'm not sure I understand why you think SC would be scum with FL. Could you please elaborate?

SC wasn't lynched yesterday because of his meta. FL was one of the players that brought his meta up. Later in the day she defended him in ways that go beyond his meta. I think their spat that started off the day looks like distancing. And, alvinz brought up some interactions between them that look like they are partners. At the very least, I'd be very surprised if both of them were town.

Same on the alvinz-town thing, because his play today is really making me suspicious of him.

I'm not eliminating him as a suspect in the long term, I just can't find a good reason to suspect him. He's been V/LA most of the day, so that explains his general lack of contribution. He's really stuck on Goat for some reason, but that doesn't make him scum. Why do you suspect him?

(2:11 mountainous is definitely a fair setup, imo).

Rolefishing?

One, how is speculating about the number of scum vs. town rolefishing?

Two, how is mentioning that he thinks a mountainous setup is fair is rolefishing, especially since in a mountainous game, power roles do not exist?

Well, we know this isn't a mountainous game because there was no kill last night. I thought if B&B is scum, he might be trying to identify power roles based on who corrected him. A little hairbrained of a theory, but how else can such an assumption be explained? It's unlikely though possible that he didn't notice there was no kill, but to assume mountainous is a big stretch. How common are closed mountainous games? Pretty rare, I'm sure.

[Megatheory]

No we don't.
Though it makes it far less likely that this set up is not mountanious, only scum and the powerroles we may have know if this is mountainous or not.

Um...what? And also, how does no kill fit into mountainous again?

Scum can decide not to kill anybody, which helps if they fakeclaim doctor.

No killing is dumb.

Why are you reacting so strongly to questions about B&B?

[Megatheory]

One, how is speculating about the number of scum vs. town rolefishing?

Two, how is mentioning that he thinks a mountainous setup is fair is rolefishing, especially since in a mountainous game, power roles do not exist?

This is really the strong reaction I was thinking of. But the point is, SC seems really concerned about B&B.

[Megatheory]

Mega:

And, alvinz brought up some interactions between them that look like they are partners.

Strongly disagree. I think much of alvinz's evidence is only indicative if viewed with the perspective that both of them must be scum. You do have a point with everything else, but

I think it's more likely buddying between scum and town

, though I'm not willing to speculate further without knowing FL's alignment, as that seems to be key to the argument.

Wha??? I mean, it's not airtight, but I can't possibly see how any of what was brought up could possibly be buddying. Let's look at those posts again:

Alright, here are some quick and dirty impressions of those on the Rage wagon:

Those I find unscummy, and likely town:

Goatrevolt
Again, nothing to stick on him. He's well reasoned, etc. Course, he tends to be such, as scum and town. It's going to be hard to pin anything on him if he's scum, but I actually do feel he's trying to help the town. (Course, I might be biased).

Megatheory
Honestly, I got nothing on him. He feels protown all the way. I hope he delivers his second look at me soon. His analyses feel sound basically. Also, his case on skillit is most assuredly superior to mine. (Course, mine is posting style and amount of fluff, which most people fine ironic)

StrangerCoug
His performance today seems to me to honestly be finding scum in his own way. It feels townie, if that's really good to go on. I honestly see him as town

Regardless of SC's attack on him at the beginning of day, FL still plants him at very townly.

I basically pointed this out already. FL is trying extra hard to paint SC as town.

That's it, forbiddanlight, I have ceased to understand you anymore.

Sounds like scumtalk.

Why would a townie push on someone they can't understand? It makes more sense to take the time to get something they can understand out of their target and make a decision on that. It's more likely that SC is saying "sorry, buddy, I have to bus you now."

Wait, you thought you could understand me? Ah, what a laugh. Well, that's the problem with my playstyle. Half the time my apparent randomness works well in my favor. The other half...well, this is the result.

Casual reply like 2 buddies talking, like saying "sorry I failed you"

alvinz hit it on the head.

What all is forbiddanlight guilty of? OMGUS, self-voting, straw man arguments,

argumenta ad hominem

, blaming others for her actions... Yeah. I'm ready to get rid of her.

Confirm vote: forbiddanlight

"Yeah, I'm ready to get rid of her." The wording is just awkward and sounds like a buddy saying, yeah i'm just going to kill my other buddy. maybe its just my mental paradigm, but it sounds very suspicious.

alvinz hit it again.

So how could any of this be buddying?

[Megatheory]

While Goat and FL have been connected to an extreme extent, that doesn't mean anything until FL is lynched. Anyway, I will bring up these connections if FL turns scum. And,

If

FL is scum, I will be that more confidant with Goat, but if FL is town, I will probably still be suspicious of Goat.

By all means, tell us now! Not telling us can put a big target on your forehead for the NK.

Actually, a lot of people have been putting off giving us their thoughts until tomorrow. There's no good reason to withhold information today.

B&B looks really scummy right now. His case on Goat is terrible. Almost every point he raised was inaccurate or hardly scummy. I think he's trying to whip up a lynch with all of the people who have found Goat scummy without good reason. Considering how long the game has been and how long it has taken him to read, I would expect him to have a lot more to say.

You know, thinking on it, me and Goat have never been on the same team thus far in a game of mafia, lol.

Everybody note this. I think it'll be important later.

I will have no access from Saturday until Tuesday. Please try not to lynch until I come back.

[Megatheory]

StrangerCoug: Do you still want to lynch FL today?

[Megatheory]

I'm here. This game got all kinds of weird when SC decided to vote alvinz for stuff he's been doing all game, then FL follows. I still want to lynch FL. I want to reread this game but I'd be cool with a hammer any time at this point.

[Megatheory]

Unvote

More to come.

I'm intrigued. You do realize the town's basically decided to kill me today. What possible revelation could have caused your brain to turn on?

Didn't you say you were the correct lynch today? After some attention (and votes) turned to alvinz, you decided to get all belligerent and insult us for wanting to lynch you. So are you the correct lynch or not?

[Megatheory]

Sorry guys, I'm halfway through a post responding to goat, but I've had a busy few days.

I'll try to get it up today, but I can't make any promises.

On a related note, if you see any headlines reading "Eastern Washington Man Sets Fire to Idiot Bureaucrats on College Campus," you can probably expect me not to post for awhile.

Why can't you post some of your response now?

[Megatheory]

I think I'm really dragging this game on, and I'm not sure I can post as actively as everyone else here does, so who would object to my replacement?

That is, if Moderator is willing to scour the interwebz again.

...

The last thing we need is someone else getting replaced.

[Megatheory]

Unvote:
Vote: BridgesAndBalloons

I need to reread this game. I'd rather wait until closer to deadline to lynch so I get a chance to reread. B&B still looks very scummy, as his predecessor just coasted along, and his Goat case is terrible. His responses are pretty scummy, too.

I definitely see Sther8 as a possibility, though I though veerus and cerebus were about equal possibilities up until veerus got all OMGUSy over Goat.

Like I said, I'm going to reread and I suggest anybody who has the time do the same. This is a critical lynch.

Also, everybody should voice their suspicious on who may or may not be scum based on FL's alignment. The only reason not to would be to stall for time and wait until more people die. The only people who would want to do that are scum.

[Megatheory]

Megatheory, you asked everyone for their opinions, but you failed to express yours if FL is scum (I'm assuming your listed possibilities are if FL is town). Also, how was I OMGUSy with Goat? I simply took issue with one of his many points of emphasis that I felt was invalid.

If FL is scum, than SC is almost certainly scum as well. B&B would be the other suspect, though my reasons for suspecting him are independent of FL. I thought this was clear already.

And I thought your post was OMGUSy because you found him suspicious enough to provoke an FoS because he was suspecting you. It seems awfully quick to go from 0 to 60 at the time.

If she's town.. then I'm truly at a loss.. She has shown such a mountain of tells that if she's not scum, I would have to re-read the whole game from the start. It would make sense however that the possible scum would be the ones she attacked -- skillit and alvinz.

Why not reread now and give informed possibilities? Sounds to me like you aren't at all concerned about being night killed.

...if there's a Cult (no night kills, "council" game, meaning there is the possibility of some sort of corruption involved)...

I hope to hell that's no the case. If there is no kill tomorrow, the doc should claim with their two successful protections. If there is no doc, then there must be a cult.

Basically, i want to settle the issue of whether or not Alvinz is actually a neutral. If so, I don't have an issue lynching him, but my preferred method would be to wait it out a day and let someone vig him if we have a vig.

The way I read that post was that he is supposedly a vanilla townie but he's sick of this game and basically going to ignore any and all attacks on him, making him effectively neutral so that post game he can laugh at the town despite doing absolutely nothing to help it. I don't see where you picked up a neutral role after he claimed town in that very post.

The whole "please don't modkill me" thing makes me think there's a good chance he is neutral. Personally, I don't care. Mostly he irritates me because his vote is useless due to his tunnel vision.

Anyway, I'm going to work on my reread. I'm going to post thoughts as they come up, so there may be a large number of posts from me.

[Megatheory]

Unvote, Vote FL

Whoa there, cowboy! What's this about?

Are you seriously considering that we have a vig and a mafia, and of the two of them, they both had to have been either roleblocked/doctered, or forgot to send in their NK?

I hate calling people out for role-fishing, because I would almost never do it as scum or as town, but what the heck were you trying to do here?

Vigilante's don't always shoot. I'm not saying that we have a vig, or even suggesting whatsoever that if we do have one that they should claim. All I'm saying is that if we do have one, Alvinz is a good shot, because I don't want to waste a lynch on him but people want him dead anyway.

Is he really the best choice? For the most part, people seem to want him dead because he is annoying.

Hey FL.. what are the odds of you volunteering to replace cerebus3?

if FL turns town, does anyone think this is a slip?

Probably.

[Megatheory]

Post 32:

-joon, id like this this proof you speak of

Post 39:

We must quash the skillit uprising before they kill us all!

- what does that even

mean

? i mean, i know it was a joke and all but i . . . don't get it at all.

These posts came shortly after Goat voted for alvinz and started pushing him. No comments on the Rage wagon or alvinz.

[Megatheory]

Post 53:

StrangerCoug's post here here reminded me of a tattle'ing lil bother (who might have been actually fishing for a modkill when he thought Rage was quoting his role PM). It was really either tattling or he didn’t trust the mod, but still I felt like, OUR job isn’t really to police others posts, but to interpret them for scumminess, we aren’t the referees - are we?
Anyway, this coupled with him being the first one to point out forbiddanlight had voted mod (circumstantial evidence I know), following Goat blindly-or at the very least voting withput botherng to add anything or even summ up why he was voting- back in post 17 and voting alvinz95 just "for hypocrisy" (really just seems a lil light on reasoning to me)
so in short

unvote:Joonster

Vote: StrangerCoug

because I don’t like people just going w/ the flow, I don’t like people tattle’ing (I had enough growing up), I'd like you to go more into your justifications and reasoning so they can later be assessed, and I don’t like scummy opportunism - it may be a lil early to just accuse someone of following someone around, but your answer to Alvinz was kind of dismissive to his point, possibly because HIS point was only briefly articulated, much like your posts. maybe brevity is just my personal nemesis, but I think you can pursue the same lead as another person without merely parroting back what they said, or summing up someone's points in as few words as possible as you seem to love to do.

The post Skillit is talking about was at the top of page 2. Skillit's two posts on that page were dealing with the random stage. Why did Skillit wait so long to comment on SC's post?

[Megatheory]

Post 68:

The fact that you have now cast suspicion on every person that has voted you, claiming that a person voting for you because you are acting scummy is "opportunistic", sounds to me like you are trying to scare people away from voting you.

I think that is scummy.

I agree with this sentiment, but I disagree with the wagon. While SC looks scummy, the wagon that appeared on him looked worse, in my opinion.

What made those on the SC wagon look worse than SC?

[Megatheory]

Post 264:

As time goes on, alvinz seems like an eager, overly defensive townie under unjust (in his eyes) pressure.

Unvote

Rage, your actions have been inconsistant and very, very scummy. I will

Vote: Rage

. Here's why.

1) Rage starts off the game by asking the name of the scum in this game. This earned him some early attention before being dismissed as inconsequential. In light of his later actions and my theory that he is scum, I submit that it was a poor attempt at playing a dumb townie to try and attack whoever replied with a suspicious suggestion.

2) He pulls off his early, non-random, "pressure" vote off of SC for no apparent reason as far as I can tell. He then votes for alvinz because he is being dismissive with his responses which, at the time, was a solid vote.

3) He unvotes alvinz in his very next post as a means of generating discussion, even though alvinz was in no danger of being lynched. I called him out on it at the time, so I won't go through it again. His excuse for this play was that he has a lot of games to keep track of, and that while alvinz seems "increasingly suspicious", he doesn't want to be on the wagon with people who share that line of thought. Which doesn't even make sense.

4) Then, after one empy post, he re-votes alvinz. However, THIS time his reasons are that he's likely an unhelpful townie, which is a poor play if you're a townie.

Prior to this post, veerus said nothing about any of this except for the second point. Very suspicious.

[Megatheory]

A) Broncos won! Yay!

B) I'm up to page 17 in my reread. I probably won't get through the thread by deadline, but I did get through the parts I really thought I needed to read again. Goat is almost certainly town. If he is scum, he's played a great game. Skillit looks more suspicious to me now then he did by the end of day one. Cerebus3 looks like a good townie. I'm not sure about veerus yet, there are things that make me suspect him a little, but I wouldn't vote him yet. sthar8 looks like town, but I need to read more to be sure.

Looking back at the start of day 2, I don't think FL and SC were distancing. I've gone back and forth on this a lot. I don't think the possibility is strong enough to support he FL/SC connection. If FL comes up scum, I would need something more on SC to suspect him.

[Megatheory]

Oh yes, I almost forgot. Jshark didn't post a whole lot and sometimes it felt like coasting when he did post. Rage2 should be looked at closer, IMO.