Mini Normal 2288: Reposting Same Picture As Flavor Are Lame

[Shirou]

A new age of everlasting glory shall befall the common masses from now on...

[Shirou]

Supposedly.

If we get yet another green flip I never said that, it automatically turns into fake news.

[Shirou]

Hah...Andante I love you but this wait is killing me here...

I don't want to start talking without knowing for sure if your role is what I think it is.

[Shirou]

Being cheeky aside...it's crucial we get scum right today I believe.

This game is significantly much harder to win if we don't get scum today.

[Shirou]

@geraintm do you know what "multitasking" means? If yes, can you please explain what scum being multitasking here possibly means?

[Shirou]

Yeah I kinda guessed you were a VT in my notes PT

But the conclusion I'm coming from that is...pretty weird.

[Shirou]

I'm at work, and would give 1(one) free town lean and a half eaten chocolate chip cookie if someone would finish that claim list and maybe, just maybe include dead players and their roles.

Gamma = Announcing Lazy Hider
Brickwall = Loud Novice Follower
Klick = Loud Announcing JOAT (Motion-finder, Watcher-finder, Neapolitan, Tracker)
Shirou = VT
Gryff = VT
Andante = VT


PenguimPower = VT
Firebringer = Loud Loyal Visitor


Geraintm = Announcing Compulsive Voyeur
Herta = Loud Roaming Motion Detector
Freedom = Announcing Roaming Watcher


Kowah = VT
redFF = VT

[Shirou]

The first bracket to me is people that are either dead or almost always town here to me like Andante regardless of Fire's alignment

PP/Fire make sense as town here imo, especially Firebringer right now, but I guess not impossible for they to be scum for god knows what

The rest of the PoE...well

[Shirou]

As long as there's 3 scum I believe there just isn't enough power in the town for it to be balanced without Firebringer being town...unless maybe if all of [Geraintm/Herta/Freedom] were town but that's such a tough pill to swallow.

If there's only 2 scum though...now that's an interesting direction, and I do trust mastina/Ausuka/Enchant to not have thought that 2 scum + traitor makes this balanced without Firebringer being town because it really doesn't imo. Hider is way too swingy.

[Shirou]

Well it would be silly for me or for Freedom to claim what we did if we were scum, so I'm given Freedom a town nod.

why would it be silly?

[Shirou]

No one has fakeclaimed I'm confident

Regardless of who is scum you're all claiming your literal or very similar roles

This whole setup counters fake claiming almost

[Shirou]

Oh, except ninja if it exists. He can have fakeclaimed or claimed VT

[Shirou]

I believe there's one additional thing in favor of scum!Geraint aside from the fact he at some point assumed you got no movement on him and then changed it:

Voyeur is the role that makes the most sense to be scum here in my opinion. With so many Loud roles, it's easy to get a sense of who visited who from dayplay, so for example:

If a voyeur had targeted me at night 1, and assuming Fire is telling the truth, by N2 they should know that Fire is a investigate PR as long as I said a simply "Fire visited me" or so commentary. It's relatively easy to hunt PRs here with voyeur due to announcing/loud modifiers.

[Shirou]

I would be...rather surprised if Geraintm is town here by this point. However, it's not impossible at all I guess. Nothing is impossible in a guessing game, it's a always at best a gamble after all.

[Shirou]

If a voyeur had targeted me at night 1, and assuming Fire is telling the truth, by N2 they should know that Fire is a investigate PR as long as I said a simply "Fire visited me" or so commentary. It's relatively easy to hunt PRs here with voyeur due to announcing/loud modifiers.

my role wouldn't show up as investigative. visitor isn't an investigation action. I am only investigation because of loyal

Oh true on hindsight...but that would apply for klick or brickwall for example

[Shirou]

or Herta/Freedom if any of them are town

[Shirou]

Oh...huh

damn ok maybe I need to restart my setup spec

Now Fire could be scum again theoretically speaking

[Shirou]

if Fire is town I'm starting to feel bad for scum now. This is getting near auto levels I think and we quickhammered our Hider d1.

[Shirou]

Ninja does make some sense to me here if town is powerful and I'm starting to feel like town may be powerful

[Shirou]

if Fire is town I'm starting to think there is no way they don't have a Ninja to counter the action tracking investigatives in fact

We would have one conf town + two alignment clearing investigatives + tons of action investigatives

I really believe on a Ninja if Fire is town.

[Shirou]

I've a very very malicious plan for us to do if Fire is town and not nightkilled tonight.

It's such a good plan in my mind that I'm rather uninterested on killing Fire today even if I think he has pretty decent odds of being scum with recent developments on mech.

If Fire is town I think we may have this in the bag by this point, and it's funny because I don't think we would have played very well either way. If Fire is scum...well, there's a partner somewhere in the PoE so I want to hunt for it.

[Shirou]

Gehehehehe

If Fire is town and scum doesn't nightkill him I'm giving scum a HEART ATTACK TOMORROW!!

[Shirou]

You're also gonna enjoy it if town Fire. We're making scum sweat buckets in that world.

[Shirou]

if Gera flips scum and we've space for 2 lims tomorrow *and* Fire is town

tomorrow is pure wifom gold...I'm daydreaming already of it

[Shirou]

Listen, I need to go back to thinking about the setup with the new information of a confirmable IC, and I've some heavy doubts about Fire being town now due to it, but I think unless Fire is mechanically confirmed scum, there's way too much to gain from his role to eliminate him today, and this is the reason:

Ok, so Fire visits someone, and only they supposedly know that if town right?

And with Geraintm killed we'll have a PoE of 4 players right?

This is an interesting plan in the scenario of town!Fire:

Fire

ramdomly

chooses someone inside [Penguim/Kowah/Herta/Freedom] tonight

(assuming we eliminate Geraintm)

Then...tomorrow, Fire picks an order of his own choosing of who should start "claiming". The claims are either "Fire visited me" or "Fire didn't visit me".

Penguim should

always

be the last one to claim though, I'm not budgeting on this I think Fire, if you're scum there's too much benefit to make town!Penguim claim first and I believe PP has decent odds of being just town like Andante.

[Shirou]

scum can't know who town!Fire picked if that's the scenario we're in.

They would need to guess, and it can reveal *more* than one scum, if for example one scum that was visited says they weren't, but their buddy says they were.

Fire shouldn't say ANYTHING about what is a lie or not until everyone has claimed "visited me" or "not visited me". He should only select the order they go about it while eating popcorn.

[Shirou]

do failed actions show up as motion?

I don't know but also:

We're leashing all of Herta/Freedom/Gera actions into someone that is confirmed or supposedly confirmed town

we aren't letting they use their PRs free when there's such good odds of scum being there

[Shirou]

Freedom watches me
Herta motion detects me
I visit random person

if the ninja exists this doesn't prevent my death but would at least confirm that herta isn't a ninja

sounds like a viable way to go about it but dunno if there's something else

doing the same thing to redFF may be overall safer.

[Shirou]

why do it to Redff
if scum went for kill on him that gives me a free check on someone
If scum kill me while being watched we get way more info

Hmm, sorry I think if you're town, town just has a bit too much power here for what scum seemingly have

if you're scum they targeting you like that gives you a free road to kill redFF especially if Gera is ninja

[Shirou]

scum have way more incentive to kill me over redff

if you're town...yeah

You didn't die on N2 though even softing as hard as you were softing to be investigative.

You also were the unique person to assuredly know Klick was a JOAT by n2 given he targeted you n1.

Then there's the fact that we're near auto if you're town.

You gotta admit I've objective reasons to be wary of you right now...right? regardless of dayplay.

[Shirou]

I think you can be town though because maybe they were considering the swingy factor of the hider. We only have 3 eliminations if Hider dies for any reason at night.

[Shirou]

i mean, klick softed investigative too

where?

the firebringer thing? i don't think it was as clear of a soft as fire's on me

[Shirou]

hmmm

blegh whatever i've misread fire so much so far that i don't want to again not work with him if he's ever town here

maybe we should do as he said in that post and both herta/freedom target him tonight

[Shirou]

I just don't want to feel bad again for ignoring him if he's town more than I think doing this is a good idea on all possible universes

[Shirou]

I'm starting to think of taking PP off that pool though.

Fire checks so far haven't helped me much on solving and a PP check confirming him as town is again not telling me new info...

[Shirou]

im willing to hear u out on how ur plan is better
but if the plan starts with "well if ur scum"
then its kind of a stupid plan to begin with.

Nah your plan is better if you're town. I'm not sure you're town though so /shrug, I thought maybe soft protecting redFF is a better idea to hedge that scenario but I'm fine doing whatever most people want given how much I've misread you so far

[Shirou]

I want to check penguin the most.

Fire my entire town lean pool has been confirmed/flipped town

It could be but am I really just wrong on PP I don't think so

I think a check on [freedom/herta/kowah] helps

everyone

the most. To be substantially useful your checks kinda need to be someone that we all suspect...

[Shirou]

Fire my entire town lean pool has been confirmed/flipped town

sorry I meant 3/4

[Shirou]

if u want ot try to convince me he is super unlikely scum. I am all ears.

Hmmm

"super" may be too much, but I'll think about doing it or not in the weekend, now gotta sleep.

goodnight.

[Shirou]

feel like its penguin or kow for lim today

I'm sorry but there's

no way

we aren't limming in the PRs. It can't be all town. It's literally a broken setup no matter how much you try to balance if those claims are all town.

It's a question of who is lying to me...

[Shirou]

There's basically at least one confirmed scum in the PRs in my view

Does anyone believe the setup is something like (removing all loud/announcing stuff just for the raw idea of power)

Town Actionable Innocent Child
Town JOAT (1-shot Neapolitan + 1-shot Tracker)
Town Lazy Hider
Town Novice Follower
Town Loyal Visitor
Town Watcher
Town Motion Detector
Town Voyeur
VT (Me)
VT (Andante)
VT (Gryff)

Mafia Ninja
Mafia ??? (PP?)
Mafia ??? (Kowah?)

That's...in fact 14 people, so there's gotta be scum in the PRs no matter what if Andante/me are both town. Even if we try to assume both Kowah and PP are scum, it still gives us that there's at least one scum in the PRs.

[Shirou]

I at no point thought he got no movement on me. I knew he would have, hence me saying early day 2 when he thought I could be scum that I knew why he would think that.

claims
HErta
- motion detector
n1 geraintm no movement
n2 kowabunga no movement

it could be a typo though, sure

[Shirou]

However, you took a really long time to full claim and say your targets:

(notice how his first post replying the massclaim is by 10:05 am and he only fullclaims with targets 2 hours later)

i'd rather those who haven't said they have roles to go first so they can be caught out in any missteps with their claims.

I was going to give him time to answer my questions.

It felt like they had given up and we weren't going to get anything useful out of them today, and the weirdness of the self hammer offer was not good, there was nothing they could have said that wouldn't have resulted in their elimination today so I was happy to get it over with.

See you tomorrow

i went to see Herta last night, bold was the crumb

I was going to give him time to answer my questions.

It felt like they had given up and we weren't going to get anything useful out of them today, and the weirdness of the self hammer offer was not good, there was nothing they could have said that wouldn't have resulted in their elimination today so I was happy to get it over with.

See you tomorrow

i went to see Herta last night, bold was the crumb

i want your full role sir.

Town Announcing Compulsive Voyeur

But mostly important, I feel like

he only fullclaims

with confidence

after Herta reveals what their role is and Geraintm knows what kind of result Herta had on him

:

I'm the motion detector. Geraintm night 1 and there was movement. Kowabungah Night 2 no movement

I targetted gryff night 1
herta night 2

there were no actions targeted on either

[Shirou]

I believe there's one additional thing in favor of scum!Geraint aside from the fact he at some point assumed you got no movement on him and then changed it:

Voyeur is the role that makes the most sense to be scum here in my opinion. With so many Loud roles, it's easy to get a sense of who visited who from dayplay, so for example:

If a voyeur had targeted me at night 1, and assuming Fire is telling the truth, by N2 they should know that Fire is a investigate PR as long as I said a simply "Fire visited me" or so commentary. It's relatively easy to hunt PRs here with voyeur due to announcing/loud modifiers.

I at no point thought he got no movement on me. I knew he would have, hence me saying early day 2 when he thought I could be scum that I knew why he would think that.

I don't understand how you thought it made sense for him to think you're scum either if you targeted Gryff. You couldn't know he was a motion detector, so out of all possibilities like tracker and etc, I don't see how someone that visited the person that wasn't nightkilled would think it made "sense" for someone that targeted him to think they're scum

[Shirou]

I don’t think I got to my point, I think it’s dumb to divide this into PR/ not PR, like certain people have just been significantly scummier than others, and if your slot hasn’t done anything all game, you’re in the scum pool too, until you seem towny

I'll put it simpler for you Andante:

There's only two non cleared VTs, there's

confirmed scum

in the PRs if this is a 3-player team. If you town lean any of PP/Kowah, there's likely more than one scum from your pov as well in the PRs.

If someone thinks either me or you are scum, they still have to likely sort Firebringer first, another PR.

It's like having counterclaims (because town would be too powerful for it all to be true) and then someone saying "eh, they'll just resolve themselves on one night, let's maybe lim outside of it?"

No...that doesn't make any sense, all of the VTs right now can be town theoretically but all of the PRs

cannot

be town theoretically.

[Shirou]

Geraintm was by far the scummiest slot in the massclaim. Herta took a bit to fullclaim but nowhere near geraintm.

I'm starting to believe geraintm was worried about being caught red-handed by claiming something wrong when herta had a result of some sort on him

[Shirou]

It's getting so incredibly hard to believe Fire isn't scum to me due to PoE.

-> 3 scum in: [Geraintm/Herta/Freedom/Fire/Kowah/PP?]

Then I take PP off because I town lean him, and we've:

-> 3 scum in: [Geraintm/Herta/Freedom/Kowah/Fire]

I'm...starting to like some of Kowah posts, and if I take Kowah off and:

-> 3 scum in: [Geraintm/Herta/Freedom/Fire]

I'm starting to think Herta/Gertainm interactions are a bit too weird to be scum together perhaps, so if Geraintm/Herta aren't scum together in this scenario, Fire has gotta to be scum.

I don't think Fire will convince me today at least that PP is scum, so basically Fire, for you to be town I think either Kowah or both [Geraintm/Herta] have to be scum.

[Shirou]

Also Andante, the people that seems to have scum on them right now is literally the same people I found most likely to be scum aside from Gryff/Gamma:

[PP, Andante²] - town lean
[

Klick

] - nulltown
[

Taly

, Kowahbunga, Firebringer¹

] - null
[

RedFF

] - nullscum
[

GammerGryff

,

Geraintm

] - scum lean
[

Herta

] - scum read

The readlist was outdated already by the end of D2 because I thought Taly flaking on this game was +scum, but basically if you remove Gryff/RedFF from that readlist, it basically leaves Herta/Geraintm/Taly/Kowa/Fire, which is the people that seems to have scum among them as well from the claims.

[Shirou]

updated readlist would be something like:

[RedFF] - town read
[PP, Andante] - town lean
[] - nulltown
[Kowahbunga] - null
[Herta, Firebringer, Taly] - nullscum
[] - scum lean
[Geraintm] - scum read

and I'm wondering whether Kowah should be brought down to nullscum or go above to nulltown.

[Shirou]

Oh, forgot to replace Taly for Freedom but you know what slot I'm talking about.

[Shirou]

I believe either 2 or perhaps all 3 scum are in the PRs.

[Shirou]

if Geraintm is scum I'm starting to believe Herta may be town and that leaves

[Fire/Freedom/Kowah] for 2 scum if PP is town, and out of those I gotta say Kowah may be the townier, alternatively it's Firebringer the townier one for defending me on D2 though.

So if Fire/Herta are town, does something like this looks balanced?

Town Announcing Lazy Hider (Gamma)
Town Loud Novice Follower (Brickwall)
Town Loud Announcing JOAT (Motion-finder, Watcher-finder, Neapolitan, Tracker) [Klick]
Town Activable Innocent Child (redFF)
Shirou = VT
Gryff = VT
Andante = VT
PenguimPower = VT

Town Loud Loyal Visitor (Firebringer)

vs

Geraintm = Mafia Announcing Compulsive Voyeur
Freedom = Mafia Announcing Roaming Watcher
Kowah = Mafia Ninja

[Shirou]

Fixed actually

Town Announcing Lazy Hider (Gamma)
Town Loud Novice Follower (Brickwall)
Town Loud Announcing JOAT (Motion-finder, Watcher-finder, Neapolitan, Tracker) [Klick]
Town Activable Innocent Child (redFF)

Town Loud Loyal Visitor (Firebringer)
Town Loud Roaming Motion Detector (Herta)

Shirou = VT
Gryff = VT
Andante = VT

PenguimPower = VT

vs

Mafia Announcing Compulsive Voyeur (Geraintm)
Mafia Announcing Roaming Watcher (Freedom)
Mafia Ninja (Kowah)

[Shirou]

Fire, even though a part of me tells me that I shouldn't I'm fine considering you town for now and agreeing to Freedom/Herta targeting you tonight as long as you take Penguim out of that investigation pool.

I'll try to explain my PP town lean because if PP is scum and you hero catch him that's good, but if he's just town like andante your checks would have had 0 impact on many people reads and it ?#feelsbad? because one clear on the [Herta/Freedom/Kowah] pool makes this game way more winnable imo

I believe that if PP is ever scum, getting one clear out of the above pool and catching him by PoE is just optimal compared to ever investigating him directly?

[Shirou]

I just really think that firebringer dead may be more useful than him getting another result perhaps...it would be like he's clearing himself so overall it's still one less person in the PoE

Firebringer flipping town also almost confirms the Ninja in my eyes, too much power for town otherwise.

[Shirou]

but if people believe Firebringer is more likely town than not I'm fine compromissing on this

[Shirou]

if:

1. Freedom/Herta agrees to target Firebringer tonight

2. Firebringer agrees to target randomly inside [Herta, Freedom, Kowah] and randomly also pick out a order of claims for them tomorrow

I can just vote Geraintm here and wrap up the day somewhat soonish

[Shirou]

I think...freedom as scum revealing the ninja and at the same time saying to lim in the VTs where his partner Kowah is...sounds anti-associative to me. It doesn't sound like a good idea at all.

But if that's the scenario, they would have killed town!Klick rather than town!Firebringer when it was so obvious that Fire was an alignment clearing PR. I'm not sure I can expect a lot of optimal play if that's the team here...

[Shirou]

If Firebringer is scum he also wants the motion detector/watcher on him to justify him not dying tomorrow perhaps but...welp, I don't have enough energy to convince people of it, and if he's indeed town his role can help solve this game a lot tomorrow.

If I'm scum here I think I would still consider ninja killing Firebringer because we very likely get one guilty tomorrow with this plan.

[Shirou]

to be clear again:

Fire should pick out the order of claims and not say whether they are right or wrong at any point until they're finished even if someone lies at the first claim or so

just to make sure nothing goes wrong

[Shirou]

who is scum then and why geraint?

[Shirou]

I'm not clever enough to work through set up to see who is thrme best to kill today. I just know I am not the right person to go after. Am happy to use my night action as directed.

[Shirou]

[Shirou]

pick a dart geraintm

assume there's confirmed scum in [Fire/Freedom/Kowah] from your pov

who sounds most likely scum there

[Shirou]

I would be really surprised if Geraintm isn't scum at this point, so I think I'm at something like:

Geraintm - scum

one of [Freedom/Fire]

one of [Kowah/Herta/PP]

I think if Fire is scum we need a watcher here perhaps to balance it out. I think one of Fire/Freedom makes some sense as town in this setup but not both, and I don't think it makes a lot of sense for neither to be town as well if Geraint is scum, we would only have one more motion detector while scum has Voyeur + Watcher + Whatever Fire really is

One of [Freedom/Fire] is probably town and the other one is scum I think.

I'm really confused on who third scum may be, I think it's not impossible for it to be a traitor and that's why some interactions feel so weird between potential parnters.

If there's a traitor and Fire is scum, maybe his real role is unloyal visitor and he has been searching for his traitor or something, I don't know, that's where I'm at.

[Shirou]

Like, why would a motion detector see a ninja? and more often than not all the "I will check with mod" / "mech talk" is from scum, plus I'm not really seeing herta do... anything?

Ninja is a modifier that can only apply to a single action, for example the nightkill and not your other abilities. It's possible.

[Shirou]

Geraint > sort Freedom/Fire > Goodfuckingluckonlastscum

I think that's it for me today, I don't have enough info to say much else

some minor stuff that kowah posted gives me pause about him being scum though...he feels interested on the massclaims for example, but it's not hard to fake yeah

[Shirou]

See, here's my thinking, we don't have any protective roles, so we could argue watcher is that prot. However, with ninja, watcher is useless, so I'm sus of this watcher claim, no way fire doesn't die tonight if real, and I SR herta, soooo I wanna lim herta, and scum can sort the rest tonight

Why do you assume there's a protective in the setup, the idea behind this setup seems to be having a lot of individually low impact night investigations that later on in massclaim makes us perhaps able to figure out a thing or two

That's why there's so many PRs as well, because they are all individually weak in this setup. Having a Ninja to nerf tracker/watcher makes sense if that is the idea.

[Shirou]

I looked up ninja to see if it even was an option, wiki says " Ninja is a player who can perform actions that cannot be seen by a Tracker, Watcher, or similar role;" exactly what you'd think, not sure why we must "go to the mod" to see if motion detector sees a ninja, just look up the answer?

Andante I was with you scum reading Herta all game, but I just feel like geraintm treatment of Herta is super weird and geraintm has been overall scummier than Herta with always hopping in the wagons nonchalantly by the end of the days while claiming to not have reads, and then taking 2 hours to fullclaim.

You may think Herta is definitely scum, but do you think Geraintm is likely to be town? If not we can do Geraintm today and sort Herta tomorrow.

[Shirou]

Geraintm behavior towards Herta looks like classical whiteknighting scum to me.

[Shirou]

if Herta is scum and Geraint is town, he's hard wolfsiding here as well.

I think Geraintm is scummy by dayplay, his role makes the most sense as benefiting scum to me as a weaker rolecop, he seemed hesitant to fullclaim before Herta did, and has been too quick in my opinion to call Herta town beyond any doubt.

Then I also don't think that both loud loyal visitor and a watcher can be town given the already confirmed town PRs we've.

Herta isn't a priority to me right now unless Geraintm flips town somehow.

[Shirou]

I don't even get why gerain is so confident herta is town

Exactly. From his pov there should be 5 other slots that can likely be scum in the game, and Herta is one of them.

If you remove Herta from that pool as well, scum team is almost obvious as 3/4 of [PP, Fire, Freedom, Kowah]

I don't understand how he can be town and simply have "no scum reads" at the moment when if you take Herta out of the PoE you basically have 75% chance of hitting scum at random.

It's like. If he's town I'm not sure what kind of contribution I can expect from him in the end of the game? I think if he's town Herta can easily be scum and the fact he doesn't see it puzzles me

[Shirou]

This planned flip of herta after me flipping green is going to turn out horrible for town.

I never said we're necessarily flipping herta if you flip town.

I do think that Herta odds of being scum skyrocket if you're town somehow though, there's just not enough people to be scum right now.

[Shirou]

This confusing setup isn't for the weak of heart.

I would neither want or expect anything else from our dear mod though.

[Shirou]

if Geraintm flips town somehow I'm gonna re:read the whole game for final reads I guess

[Shirou]

ur face isn't for the weak of heart.


hahaha gottem

Indeed. The weak of heart faints upon my magnanimous presence

[Shirou]

I think if Geraintm flips town, Herta needs to be scum and:

still one of [Fire/Freedom]

I feel pretty good about that.

Third scum guesses though? miss me with that shit. It could be both of one of the above brackets but first we get 2 scum and then later talk about the third, right now it's not impossible we may not even get one before being endgamed...

[Shirou]

Then i would have to give master props to scum team on how they played this. Especially if they believed my clear on shirou but left me alive because they thought could use shirou paranoia to kill me.

nah I think I always kill herta before you if geraintm flips town and if Klick/me vs Gera/Herta was all town it's at least gonna be funny as fuck in post-game

[Shirou]

if both herta/gera there's no way you're town though in my pov so in that scenario you dab on me huh

[Shirou]

I meant if both gera/herta are town somehow*

[Shirou]

starting to think PP is town

do you agree to target inside only [Kowah/Freedom/Herta] then?

[Shirou]

like I can be wrong on PP firebringer, like I was wrong on Meuh, but I think I'm more likely than not right on him and either way there's other priorities to sort right now

[Shirou]

I think if PP is scum we get him by PoE when we look around and there just isn't enough people to be scum

[Shirou]

if you survive tonight we get PP back in the investigation pool tomorrow night

[Shirou]

I think PP/Firebringer/someone else is a pretty funny scumteam that sounds possible but man it's a hard pill to swallow if both geraint/herta are town, so X gotta be one of them at least and we almost never lose the game on the next two days...?

[Shirou]

it goes from 25% to a 33% of just guessing. But the order of which claims becomes so much more important.

yeah I was also thinking this but I don't trust you enough to give you PP right now because as scum you always clear PP and give no new info tomorrow, sorry.

Let's go!!
VOTE: Geraintm

[Shirou]

Freedom/Herta please target Firebringer tonight or it's a scum claim k'thx

[Shirou]

VOTE: geraintm

lol

[Shirou]

I know, just thought it was funny

[Shirou]

FWOAKFOWAKFOAKOWFOWKAK

ANDANTE WHY THE QUICK SWITCH

[Shirou]

I'm not gonna lie it feels like I'm being lowkey trolled as town and hard wolfisiding somehow but okie I'm not sure I can switch directions anymore because I literally cannot believe that both geraint/herta are town and scum team is something like pp/fire/andante

so let's go and hopefully this is just scum

ninja would be very sweet for us here

[Shirou]

I feel like the captain of the titanic and everyone on my side including me is like

"it literally cannot go tits up/wrong. This voyage can't NOT be successful"

I hope this is an alternative universe and the titanic just shows how good of a ship it is though

[Shirou]

scum team is something like pp/fire/andante

that would be an awesome scum team not gonna lie

best team is me/penguin/shirou

four scum team of PP/fire/andante/shirou

secretly lowkey bastard game

[Shirou]

today was, in fact, ELO my dear town

you just lost to us already I think

[Shirou]

we reach parity given it's gonna be 8 left alive

we did it fire/PP/andante

[Shirou]

I don't even know if geraint is hammered or not already

I think he is or at least on E-1 right

[Shirou]

God this is dumb.
I'm green.
Work it out now

:thonking:

[Shirou]

if you're town you have no right to call us dumb for suspecting you when you had literal 75% chance of getting scum right if you're right that Herta is town as long as you pushed anyone...

[Shirou]

If you were town *and* is right on your confident town read on Herta, all you had to do today most likely was to push anyone in the PoE and there's 75% chance of it being scum

you had only to get someone else killed by convincing us that they are scum

I don't feel bad at all for getting you wrong if you're really town, neither I do towards Gryff to be honest. Gamma felt a bit bad but...c'mon gamma you had to claim hider you know...

[Shirou]

no one has visited me tonight

[Shirou]

if herta is scum this is the silliest town game i've ever played by a significant amount

i think if he's town it's also super silly but for different reasons

i've also learned that i'm utterly silly, and wonder how much sillier i can be in this last dayphase

[Shirou]

i've a guess on the scumteam but i just want to watch how the game/dayphase unfolds without my interference

i'll be honest, i doubt we can win this by this point though, we can't get a single scum wrong anymore, we need to get the entire scumteam nonstop from now on

[Shirou]

i thought about not mentioning anything and just playing as i saw fit given how many times i've already said something similar, but for meta posterity i just want to say the silliness of this game convinced me that it's way too hard to consistently get scum and even if the stars align and their ISO makes 0 sense or is full of "scumposting" people can just flip town somehow

mafia seems by far the hardest game i've ever played...by this point i'm starting to think of this as more of a gambling game than anything else

maybe herta will flip town as well at this rate who knows

[Shirou]

popcorn to herta

[Shirou]

Spoiler: not so smol rant, not really necessarily game related so fine to skip

basically, i surrender i think

part of this social game just feels like...gacha at times

more often than not, i'm not that surprised on the scum flips because i usually don't town read

most

of the scum i think, but there's always this pool of suspects and then you start rolling a dice to decide who is scummier and then it starts to feel like a casino and it's just frustrating to play this as if it wasn't partially...idk, ?luck-based?.

If you don't hardcore stalk people to learn their individual tells rather than defaulting to general statistical tells that apply to a larger number of people, you're mathematically bound to end up with people that play so different than what is supposed to be "normal" at some point, and then the probability of it all becoming clown world rises up and for me personally it's not fun to have such a wild variance when i'm being competitive about something. after a few good games you start to think you're improving but suddenly little of what applied in the past games applies in the new one

it's so...inconsistent. the most fruitful/consistent method for getting better at this game has already been "proven" to be just hardcore meta'ing the players in your game, but that's always a conditional improvement if it only applies while you're playing with those people rather than any random game life throws at you and you need to "re:do" the "improvement" all over again when you play with new people.

i'm just saying all this to explain why i'll likely have so little drive to play as my "usual" of hardpushing/hardsolving/whatever in the near future on my town games. i give up on "improving" in this game, it's too random at times to be a satisfying endeavor.

[Shirou]

it's great right

[Shirou]

there it is fire

is someone lying?

[Shirou]

was kowah really who you supposedly targeted?

[Shirou]

so you think either me or andante are scum fire?

[Shirou]

you suspected penguim before

you said you were starting to believe there was no ninja so that also would mean you believe freedom lied/is scum

why is that team guess so bad for you? i also assume you don't town read herta

[Shirou]

6 alive I guess this is mylo?

this...together with asking the mod about ninja stuff really does feel fake

[Shirou]

blegh i thought about being cute and waiting and doing the "optimal" stuff and yadda yadda yadda but uhhhh

i just think it's herta/firebringer/X

and X is one of Kowah/PP.

At the moment, I surprisingly think the third one is PP.

[Shirou]

i actually wanna kinda throw this if i'm wrong and just pseudo gladiate them right now (voting them here means it's always a 1v1 between voted vs me voting if they're scum, and if they're town scum quickhammers it at some point), but i suppose i'll hold on for now

[Shirou]

i think the third is the most puzzling to me but i think more often than not it's prob pp yeah..? idk, could be kowah tho

i suspect it's not freedom because one of fire/freedom needs to be town if herta is scum i think, town doesn't have enough power otherwise and i do think herta is scum

[Shirou]

i don't think its PP
he would have to open the day just volunteer to claim first knowing i said i wanted to vist him most with the no visit.
If he is scum here he played the openning day risky.

also he defended me yesterday when it didn't offer him any benefit to do so.
No, i think penguin is town.

:thonking:

you suspected him through most of the game but near ELO you change your mind...

we got him out of the investigation pool as well yesterday

[Shirou]

i think quite a bit of my PP scumread is for Fire/PP interactions which i do feel it's kinda s-s

if fire is town pp may be just town

i tried the entire game to convince myself that fire is town, up to the last second though, but along the way i just ignored all the big, flashing red lights and plates warning me that finally...finally he may have rolled scum for real...

[Shirou]

Shirou is skitter redux.

what do u mean by that

[Shirou]

we got him out of the investigation pool as well yesterday

u demanded that

yeah but why would it be risky for him to open this way today considering that?

[Shirou]

i actually give up on third scum we can cross that bridge when we get there yeah...

i most importantly want to kill herta which was my main scum read from D2 until geraintm townlocked him out of nowhere and made me think he may be limbait being whiteknighted...

that's it from me, i think herta is scum, i think fire is ~prob~ scum, i dunno who third is but it may be PP but it may also not

p-edit: lol

[Shirou]

it's like xmas all over again

now i can say that herta threw it if we're both town because he voted first!

[Shirou]

it's late but one of my best (and unique) birthday gifts

thank you very much regardless of alignment herta

let's kill each other!!!

[Shirou]

VOTE: herta

[Shirou]

wtf vote me again herta

the blame if it's a throw is supposed to be yours

[Shirou]

something something mafiascum should start locking ELO votes

[Shirou]

Forgot elo lol

is this a real thought?

:thonking:

6 alive I guess this is mylo?

this is elo with 7 alive.

Wait 7 alive.

[Shirou]

you were told it was ELO and thought it was Mylo one or two pages ago

there's just no way i'm not voting herta here

he scumposts too much for me to let him live

[Shirou]

Shirou is skitter redux.

also, once again i ask, what did you mean by this

[Shirou]

i think fire makes sense as scum by dayplay as well to be clear, but i also think that herta is scum and therefore one of freedom/fire is likely telling the truth/town, and roaming watcher makes more sense to me as the last town PR rather than loyal visitor, because every other town PR had a setback of sorts

Hider was lazy (stops working once there's only one scum left)

Follower was Novice (cannot target on night 1)

JOAT was both loud and announcing (which means that if he targets scum, scumteam knows who to NK, it's almost like being delayed weak or something)

we've also an activable innocent child so most of the time this setup has 2 or 3 potential clears/innos, we just got unlucky. I think rather than being a rather powerful ungated role, the last PR probably follows the trend of being nerfed a bit, and roaming is the perfect nerf for watcher given he can't soft-protect a universal town read/town PR for more than one night then

[Shirou]

Fire was also the unique person to be able to be sure that Klick was a Town JOAT by N2. Klick was rather suspected and I don't remember him softing at all, if he did it was rather subtle i think. it was a weird NK and the most plausible explanation also points me to Firebringer unhappily.

i really tried my best to just not call him scum in this game and sorry if i'm wrong again on you fire.

[Shirou]

I also think firebringer suspecting me on day 1 here was a weird read from him, i think i was completely uncaring about how i'm seen by others in this game and i do think he would normally assume that to be +town for me

suspecting Andante is also puzzling and he was unable to tell me one single game where he saw andante playing like this as scum. his reads on both me/andante didn't feel real to me initially but then i was really trying my best to not tunnel him because i've been wrong on him before twice and i like playing with him, but by this point i just cannot justify not scum reading him and once again i'm sorry if i'm wrong firepup

[Shirou]

i think fire makes sense as scum by dayplay as well to be clear,

expand on this portion the most

what i said in my most recent post and also you had two interactions with herta (which i assume is scum right now) that caught my eye:

the most interesting thing about herta to me is his attitude this game is way less passive than last game i just played with him.
Outside of that change in tone i don't see anything scummy there.

herta, ur attitude and play are a lot different than mini 2285.
is there a reason for this

it feels like the kind of stuff you say to a scumbuddy to poke him but not really bus him

if you thought that herta was acting differently than the other game you played with him, i would think you would be a bit more suspicious of him and through the days you just seemed rather uninterested on pursuing/voting him

[Shirou]

u were hell of sus day 1

why was i sus

[Shirou]

same gotta do some other stuff

idk i think i'm throwing this game by this point but i don't know what to do other than throw

my scum read on herta at least isn't something that will vanish from any amount of talking i'm confident

[Shirou]

calling me scum without voting me until he had a "case" of sorts upon my explanation of why i thought geraintm was likely to be scum

understanding how ninja works but still asking the mod for it

initially being aware of it being Mylo/ELO, but thinking it can be 6 people alive, when he also always guessed 3 player scum teams so he should know that with 6 people alive and 3 mafia, the game would be over. But then also "forgetting" it's ELO in the next page when he was also told that by PP a short bit ago.

idk what to do here other than vote herta

i'm sorry if i'm wrong yet again

[Shirou]

UNVOTE:

[Shirou]

calling me scum without voting me until he had a "case" of sorts upon my explanation of why i thought geraintm was likely to be scum

understanding how ninja works but still asking the mod for it

initially being aware of it being Mylo/ELO, but thinking it can be 6 people alive, when he also always guessed 3 player scum teams so he should know that with 6 people alive and 3 mafia, the game would be over. But then also "forgetting" it's ELO in the next page when he was also told that by PP a short bit ago.

idk what to do here other than vote herta

i'm sorry if i'm wrong yet again

You were calling me scum before any of that?

Why?

i'll reply this later

just wanted to come back to reply:

i like the new anime girl avi shirou

...it's a boy.

[Shirou]

yeah I was hinting at not receiving an item like a fruit from a fruit vendor, but having been "embraced" aka spent the night "together" with firebringer

[Shirou]

i think i was asked by herta to explain why i thought he was scum before even though he has still not replied to me why he thought i was "skitter redux", but ok

i'm also doing this while at workplace because i want to spend my free time elsewhere for now

#loweffort

[Shirou]

it's been awhile and i'm not going to recheck my ISO but i remember initially thinking that gryff was scum and gryff's read on herta/gamma felt informed that there was one scum among them

very early on i thought gamma was also scummy so i didn't pay as much attention to herta but i started to gradually dislike people pilling up on me/klick/andante, i thought it was wagons where it would make sense for scum to be on and i still haven't quite changed my mind on there being scum pushing that group of people at some point in the game

herta and me were scum partners in a micro before against taly, and i think i played d1 here substantially different, on our scum game together i tried from early on to insert control in the thread and for d1 here i mostly shitposted and low efforted without caring how other people saw me.

it's not that i necessarily would expect herta to take that into consideration, it's just that his read on me sounded convenient and it does sound "convenient" today as well. it doesn't feel like he believes i'm scum as much as he wants to wagon if possible, but he didn't vote me initially on d2 and doesn't seem to unpleased to switch votes to a bigger wagon/vote with me if the opportunity arises

tl;dr is that i haven't felt like herta is scum hunting, i have felt like herta has been looking for wagons to sit on

[Shirou]

i had a similar view of kowah but at least there's 1 or 2 kowah posts that give me pause on kowah being scum

herta however just has stuff like "forgetting" it's ELO or so after being told/considering it being Mylo/ELO in the past page

/shrug

i think he's just scum yeah

see ya

[Shirou]

like, i could be way more convincing here and just hardpush to kill herta but i've decided not to

i'll let other people have more responsibility on the final outcome of this game rather than just trying to convince people to follow me yet again

i'll at least not feel bad if we lose then, and i think there's high odds of we just losing

so i could do better but i don't think i should do better in mafia games anymore yeah

[Shirou]

i'm giving the opportunity for scum to kill me today by not "hard-efforting" basically

u should all be grateful, i've only ever been mislimmed once, u shouldn't miss this easy opportunity for this achievement scum

[Shirou]

Explain what you mean by convenient?

idk

almost like you mindlessly voted every popular wagon in the game

crazy right

[Shirou]

i'm not sure herta was on every wagon on hindsight but i do think he was on most of them

either way i'm not answering any more of your scum questions until you reply me on why you i feel like "skitter redux" @Herta.

[Shirou]

The only person who was on the wagon of every lim was Shirou.

wagon of every lim =/= most wagons in the game

it just happened that i killed all the people i've suspected in the game so far

i never voted klick for example

i've suspected gryff/herta/gamma since d1 and geraintm since d2, it just happens that we've killed most of my suspects

[Shirou]

except maybe gryff after the AtE and Gamma because it was too quick, i was actively advocating for the people i suspect to be killed when i wasn't shitposting

it's because i believed those people to be scum and therefore i needed to eliminate those people

i haven't felt herta *needs* to eliminate me in his POV when he believed i'm scum for most of the game, it just felt like he *wanted* my elimination, but not a kind of necessity as i felt towards limming my scum reads.

[Shirou]

I feel like Herta has given me the most reasons to vote there today. But it's not that simple imo.

how interesting, you are leaning herta but is shading me

:thonking:

[Shirou]

noice andante

if this is town somehow and we have a quickhammer hours/days from now i hereby declare #notmyfault

[Shirou]

fire please at some point towncase yourself and tell me why i'm an gamethrowing idiot again for not town reading you

please and thank you

[Shirou]

you think this flips town? please explain

not at all

but goddamn geraint flipped town

i'm just being cheeky and saying that if herta is somehow town and scum quickhammers it due to you voting him, it wouldn't be me that gave scum the victory technically (even though i'm likely voting herta anyway at some point if you didn't)

i'm just joking around andante

[Shirou]

not gonna lie, I'm half scared by the silence and no one voting with me lol even though I have full confidence Herta is scum

if i was scum and herta is town, do you think i keep silent rather than trying to support you into going for the wrong choice?

you can be suspicious of anyone else other than me yep, i'm just confident you're town right now, i've some doubts about PP at this point

[Shirou]

i want to just vote herta with you but people told me to wait so i don't wanna rush it as i usually do because i'll look extra silly if that is ever the case

again, i don't think this is the case though and do believe as well herta is likely scum

[Shirou]

ok ok vote is going back!
VOTE: Herta


just the fact game was dead all day, then you and penguin showed up after I voted, and I'm like, panicking lol like, no one is doing anything, thus "IM LEADING!!!"

i've mostly been reading the thread there and here, just not talking much, i don't know what to talk about other than call my scum reads scummy

i think this game needs more freedom/kowah/maybe fire rather than more me

[Shirou]

if this flips scum and it doesn't end the game, can we all agree to send FAST NIGHT to enchant?

[Shirou]

i really don't want to wait another 2 days to keep playing this if it doesn't end today

p-edit: okay

[Shirou]

i'm thinking about it

if fire is town i feel bad for not giving him more time if we somehow lose this

but the scenario where both fire and herta is town is even more mind numbing than herta being town alone so hmm...maybe if somehow this is town!herta and scum!fire i should just give him the win already?

[Shirou]

i guess

if anyone other than fire had asked for time i would be voting herta already

it's just that in my last town games with him i would have benefited to listening to fire a bit more on *certain* things

[Shirou]

i want fire to convince me he's town

i really want to believe on it

like a naive child waiting for santa claus by the xmas tree

but...as you know, santa claus has yet not come tonight once again

[Shirou]

but on what kind of world is both herta and fire ever town...freedom/PP/kowah?

that...doesn't sound like a real scum team especially considering setup/claims

[Shirou]

and i'm always assuming andante is just town here

i would be utterly shocked if andante expanded so much her wolfrange

[Shirou]

eh you know what, if herta is town fire really gotta be scum

i don't think that both PP/kowah are likely to be town because giving a neapolitan to JOAT with only 3 VTs sounds like trolling

[Shirou]

I meant "I don't think both PP/Kowah are likely to be scum" sorry

they could maybe just maybe be both town, although I think there's one scum there

[Shirou]

See, Herta is the easy one, I can't wait to lose this for us tomorrow, that... is gonna be a serious issue

I wonder if I'll get NK'd tonight

part of me wants to try getting two scum right before going off

but another part of me wants to be free from the circus and just chill in dead thread

[Shirou]

eh you know what, if herta is town fire really gotta be scum

if herta is town it's game over and the rest doesn't matter

yeah but i meant like, fire would like for me to just vote herta in that scenario and the "wait for me" is all pretense

[Shirou]

VOTE: herta

/shrug

i don't think they can be both town so if this is scum, i'm voting scum so it's alright

if somehow this is town, i think fire is gotta be scum and i'm giving him the win already so he shouldn't be upset at me!

the politically right choice

[Shirou]

i don't think herta/freedom/kowah is gonna do that much if we wait, and PP is minimalistic by nature

i was just really waiting for fire but i think on 99% of the scenarios it doesn't make that much difference i guess

[Shirou]

ok so we

are

ready then?

yep

let's go for the potential final voyage...or the start of a copium comeback

[Shirou]

BEST COMEBACK IN THE HISTORY OF MAFIA SCUM!!! WE GOT THIS

[Shirou]

if we win this game somehow it's literally gonna be anime tier comeback

i'm sorry to say but i don't quite believe in our odds here

mathematically it doesn't sound *that* bad though, if we assume that herta is scum, and there's one scum in [Firebringer/Freedom] and one scum in [PP/Kowah], we've a 25% chance of winning it at random i guess?

[Shirou]

if i have something to say before going into the night or endgame, is that i really doubt that both [firebringer/freedom] are scum or town, and the same can be said about [PP/Kowah]

assuming herta is scum, i think town needs one more town PR to balance this out, and also neapolitan seems to hint on there being more than just...3 VTs? That's way too little VTs for a normal setup anyway.

I think we can trust it to be one of [Fire/Freedom] and one of [PP/Kowah] at least...?

[Shirou]

i think that the taly replace out was...scummy. i know he was busy but it did sound like uninterested scum, other people have been busy in this game as well and we still found the time to play and i do take taly as a player that substantially prefers town.

however, i think that taly/freedom has more a lack of town things than a lot of actively scummy things, but again, it's also perhaps because they just haven't posted a lot.

fire on the other hand i've explained why i actively suspect.

so between [Fire/Freedom]...i gotta say i may pick fire before he explains himself further, but at the same time it's not a very confident pick because i can easily see freedom being scum i guess

[Shirou]

assuming both Herta/Fire is the scum in the above,

between [PP/Kowah] for third one, i gotta say my heart tells me that it's PP given his interactions with fire and a lack of any post that makes me go "this is super weird to come from scum". it's perhaps silly but kowah has a post of "redFF makes me feel safe" early on in D1 or D2 and i keep thinking on how weird of a post it is if he's scum? like, it's not the kind of thing scum often thinks about saying but kowah definitely hasn't been playing like "normal" if he's scum here either

either way, although my herta tells me that PP is the scum, i think my head tells me that i would be...a bit upset at losing to scum!Kowah in a 3F here if he's ever scum and therefore i should vote him because at face value PP is much townier than him and when i tried to engage Kowah in D1 he just shrugged it off

so, as weird as it is to say this, i think i would still vote kowah over PP even if i think PP has slightly higher odds of being last scum yeah...?

[Shirou]

all of the above is me giving my last thoughts assuming this game isn't about to end and i'm the nightkill tonight

if i'm still alive by tomorrow i'm gonna try to come into the day with a clean mind and talk more with fire and freedom

[Shirou]

either way, although my herta

lol

heart*

[Shirou]

oh, just passing to say that me assuming [fire/freedom] likely aren't scum together only holds up if herta is scum

if herta is town they could be both scum sure but uh, that wouldn't matter at all given we lose today

[Shirou]

the silence is scary but i'm maintaining my vote by this point...

[Shirou]

That's what I was saying earlier about the silence!! lol I'm reading your thought I am! lots of words... and if you die, I live by your words tomorrow!

I will be the ghost of Shirou!

if i die young...i trust the town in your hands captain andante

[Shirou]

i think the right word should have been "entrust" on hindsight huh

[Shirou]

well it's been fun playing with you andante, i think one of us gets nightkilled tonight if the game isn't over today, do you wanna leave any final thoughts as well?

[Shirou]

i'll then try to be...the

ghost of andante

!!!

[Shirou]

Congrats.

town?

[Shirou]

Did I hammer Herta?

LOL

[Shirou]

...is the game over or not?

[Shirou]

Shirou.... I'm sorry <3

wtf was fire right again...

or was fire scum with andante...?

[Shirou]

damn i hard wolfsided

[Shirou]

i thought activity was town telling for andante because she never posted so much in her past scum games

[Shirou]

i suxx at meta .-.

[Shirou]

so if fire isn't scum, was klick killed because he started to doubt you andante...?

hmm makes sense if yes, maybe it was both knowing he was a JOAT and that though, dunno

[Shirou]

i actually didn't read your posts that much tbh andante

i was really hard trusting that tell yeah

[Shirou]

so fire was scum bussing you right?

[Shirou]

if fire is town i'm actually sad

[Shirou]

holy fucking shit...

[Shirou]

fire i'm sheeping you in our next game together

[Shirou]

sorry.

[Shirou]

i renounce from meta with all the strenght of my soul

i wasn't town reading andante posts that hard at all, i was really trusting that activity tell so hard...damn...

i literally cannot get a single meta read right other than norwee...

[Shirou]

We barely had any VTs apparently...?

it must be andante/freedom/kowah from this post game reaction

[Shirou]

Fire role was quite dangerous actually depending on context

by far the most useful role of ours together with Hider, JOAT only had neapolitan as a strong thing in this setup i think

[Shirou]

unless ninja was also fake and you guys had no ninja at all

it's impressive you guys won if you had no ninja

[Shirou]

oh damn was pp the last one and he's trolling me?

[Shirou]

btw Shirou I loved you this game.

i scumsided hard...really hard here...

but i predicted we were going to flip herta today which i was going to be super opposed to in case for some magical reason

i felt like from the way you started the day focusing on andante/kowah, you made "sense" as a herta partner yep (so your plan worked), i also thought you were perhaps busing someone with the "one scum in kowah/andante" but i of course thought it would be kowah if it was a bus kkkkk

oh my god i can't stop embarrassing myself as town nowadays...