Mini Normal 2313: I am sitting in a room (game over)

[AnimatedWiz]

If you really think it’s me, that’s whatever, but can we at least eliminate the scumreads we all agree on first? I’ve been on Merlyn’s wagon since D2 and I’d like to see it finally go through.

[AnimatedWiz]

as in, it becomes a one V one

I don’t want to take the chance of that world with Hu Tao as a Traitor being true without more info. I’m not voting until we’ve all done all the isos and VCs we said we were gonna do at minimum.

[AnimatedWiz]

Okay, so, I looked through Andante’s ISO and on the beginning of D2, Andante went hard onto Bob (803, 857, 861) before backing off when Bob claimed. If Andante investigated someone N1, I would think the first person she begins calling obvious scum would be it…

However

, Andante said she trusted Bob due to his 2-Shot Macho Cop claim (1673), which wouldn’t make sense if she investigated him—Bob lied about his role here, and Andante would’ve known that. That’s my best guess for a soft result from her, but it just doesn’t work.

[AnimatedWiz]

Ah jeez, I hope Bob’s okay. :/

Check the bans thread.

Ah, I see—not a voluntary replacement. Yikes.

[AnimatedWiz]

…I wonder if it could be both Enchant and Hu Tao? Since they’re both mainly pushing for different options out of Merlyn and gob, they could be setting us up to pick between the two in the hopes of making it so that we have a good chance of getting it wrong?

It would be way more probable than Hu Tao being a Traitor, I feel—might be less probable than gob + Merlyn + Enchant, though.

[AnimatedWiz]

Then vote Merlyn.

Not yet. You don’t have to wait to vote if you really don’t want to, but I don’t think being quick here is the correct choice.

[AnimatedWiz]

I just don’t understand the pattern of NK targets—first it was Black, then Andante, then Black again, and then pisskop. Why specifically these people?

Wouldn’t killing pisskop earlier be the better option, especially N1 or N2 once there weren’t too many other opportunities? I would think the Innocent Child claiming protective would be ideal, and there has to be a reason to deviate from that expected outcome.

[AnimatedWiz]

I still think Merlyn is the best elim target today, but I just… I don’t understand WHY these people, and I’d like to try to work that out first. If gob was a Babysitter-Finder, it’s logical to think that the claimed protective role who doesn’t say exactly which role they are would be a Babysitter, right?

[AnimatedWiz]

I still think Merlyn is the best elim target today, but I just… I don’t understand WHY these people, and I’d like to try to work that out first. If gob was a Babysitter-Finder, it’s logical to think that the claimed protective role who doesn’t say exactly which role they are would be a Babysitter, right?

Not sure what you’re saying I claimed doc yesterday and pisskop claimed babysitter and they died last night not sure what you are trying to say

I’m talking about N2—pisskop claimed to be a protective role at the beginning of D2, and the scumteam would have good reason to suspect that role of is Babysitter due to gob’s role being a Babysitter-Finder. I don’t understand why the scumteam decided to kill Andante instead of pisskop N2 if that’s all the info they had on people’s roles—wouldn’t killing pisskop and likely getting a 2-for-1 be better?

[AnimatedWiz]

Here’s my theory after going through pisskop’s for D1 and D2:

I think, D1, the likely explanation is that the scumteam assumed that pisskop would be the most likely target for a protective role and didn’t target them as a result. There certainly could be other reasons, but pisskop doesn’t pressure anyone too hard D1 like Black does.

D2 is different, because this is when pisskop claims a protective role and no one else does—keeping pisskop alive after this point is really odd, because to the scumteam, it means there’s a consistent risk of more NKs failing. I think that pisskop was kept alive on N2 due to how they were reading people.

On D1, pisskop doesn’t share their reads too much after they catch up on the thread (277)—the only ones still alive they shared a thought on were Bob (no opinion) and Hu Tao (they liked, mostly).

Day 2, pisskop has a lot to say about one person—Bob. In 1866, they state being 60/40 sure about Bob being town, but are willing to leave Bob alone since the claim should be resolved when either Bob dies soon or not. Pisskop is really sure about this being the correct prediction for a while (1874), but then pivots into believing Bob before Day 2 is over (2028). I think that, if Enchant is scum, then it makes sense for them to save pisskop here—if pisskop literally says that for the next few days they’ll trust you, there isn’t an incentive to kill them over someone else more pressing (like a Cop you might have discovered, AKA Andante).

I really do think this saving of pisskop lines up with Enchant being scummy, but I’m unsure if this is the only possible reason for this playchoice by the scumteam—does anyone else have other theories?

[AnimatedWiz]

Yeah, I’m honestly not sure how Jackson guessed it was best to target Black, but I mean, hooray! Means we have 3:2 here instead of 2:2, so it ended up being really clutch for us.

[AnimatedWiz]

I don’t understand—I get Enchant not agreeing with my theory, but why don’t you, Hu Tao?

[AnimatedWiz]

I get the sinking feeling I’m not going to get any engagement with my theory, so my wish for a longer day has no purpose now.

VOTE: Merlyn, finally.

[AnimatedWiz]

Ah jeez, I took a nap and missed the final day—RIP my plan to try to pull a weird story out of thin air, but I don’t think it would’ve worked anyway. Still, this was super fun and I’m really happy I got to play with you all!

The town really had some amazing predictions and created a really strong core near the end there with the mechs and trust—super challenging and I really liked that! I felt like this was really great to learn from due to the difficulty.

Oh, also,

no redactions from me.

[AnimatedWiz]

Oh, I totally agree that I slipped up—once Dann went and you and pisskop started to be more suspicious of me, I knew my safety net was slipping and floundered near the end due to how Merlyn and I had put almost all our eggs in that basket.

The Informed slip was actually supposed to be an intentional thing, oddly enough—I was hoping it could make it seem like I had the right theory once gob got eliminated, but in hindsight it just made it seem like I had knowledge I shouldn’t have, yeah.

[AnimatedWiz]

Thanks Jackson. I’m also really proud that I kept trying, because near the end it did feel like us scum were in a really bad corner.

I would agree that the set-up was a little town-sided, but it felt like a slight uphill battle and not unwinnable or anything (personally, I kind of liked the challenge because it made every successful miselim truly exhilarating). Honestly, up until Titus took out Dann I was thinking we had about a 2/3 chance of winning, which felt awesome!

[AnimatedWiz]

I will say, it was kind of incredible how fast people jumped on the Titus wagon—I was honestly confused by the reaction, but I think it was just that as scum I didn’t really have the same perspective as the town, since I’m informed about who is actually scummy.

…was kind of nice though, because when I was genuinely talking about how I was against the idea, Titus townread me heavily for it. Was worried that she might take me out with her shot before then, actually!

[AnimatedWiz]

I will say, it was kind of incredible how fast people jumped on the Titus wagon—I was honestly confused by the reaction, but I think it was just that as scum I didn’t really have the same perspective as the town, since I’m informed about who is actually scummy.

…was kind of nice though, because when I was genuinely talking about how I was against the idea, Titus townread me heavily for it. Was worried that she might take me out with her shot before then, actually!

Your reaction had the opposite for me, since it made sense for town to do

Oh, that’s totally fair! I admit, I wasn’t sure what was best for scum or for town with that situation, because just due to how potentially swingy having two townies die in one day could be.

I think Dann was a great shot, because once D4 rolled around I realized there were few people not mechanically cleared left aside from the scumteam—really thinned the PoE.

[AnimatedWiz]

Im interested in seeing what logic you guys offered up in the PT

Full disclosure: it was a lot of WIFOM on our part. Most nights we had about 3-4 possible targets that we spent a while discussing—I’m a little indecisive, I fear.

[AnimatedWiz]

mafia and masons have 48 hours to request redactions from their pts.

Hey Sky, I think the Mafia PT should be good now.

[AnimatedWiz]

I think I remember at one point Black accusing me of being afraid of her and therefore being likely the person who tried to kill her N1 or something along those lines—and that was totally true, which was

terrifying

.

I remember having to take a step back when I saw that and make sure I didn’t panic post in response—some of y’all really were onto us at several points early on.

[AnimatedWiz]

I’m fine with Wiz, don’t worry—after all, it’s miles better than how Bob misspelled my name as “Ami.”

And thank y’all! I just don’t know how well my playing dumb strategy will work next time now that I have more experience under my belt.

[AnimatedWiz]

I felt like your posts came across as disingenuous, Wiz. It just seemed like you were trying way too hard to come across as concerned and level-headed at all moments in time, which most members of the town aren't able to manage. But you did a great job of adapting to the situation and trying to offer up other targets of suspicion.

Oh, yeah, you had me in your sights really early and never let up—was the honestly about half the reason I kept on pushing you for elimination. You were so dogged about it—probably would’ve sunk us handily if you had another day or two to convince everyone.

I really think that, if in your next game people are more willing to listen to you, you’d be a really hard scumhunter to beat.