Mini 845 - The Amish Village (Game Over)

[Herodotus]

You are older then me.

Ah, but no one would have known that if you didn't say so.

Vote: Magnus_Orion

. Sure you are.

[Herodotus]

Posting is good. Posting explosion (especially by less than half of the players) is bad.
Wallposting is bad, too, but I like analyzing the first few pages. I've tried to prune this a little for redundancy with other peoples' posts and questions that were later answered.

Kairyuu 13
Red Dye's post 11 didn't look serious, so I wouldn't have been on board to go after him for it.

Kairyuu 19
When you say that your vote is serious, does that mean that you want to pressure/lynch Red Dye?
Edit: do you currently consider him a good lynch?

Magnus 21
I'm not so sure Artem was even pseudo-serious about that, but pseudo-serious-seeming works. Do you consider that a scumtell? (Since you later ask for direct opinions, I think it's a null-tell.)
If Artem is town, would that reverse your reads on Red Dye and/or Kairyuu?
It looks like Kairyuu made you change from [not caring to explain at the moment] to [okay] in one post by [insisting]. Noteworthy, but not a particularly strong tell. Unless one of you flips scum, in which case, I'd be a little more suspicious of the other.

Red Dye 27
How did Magnus sidetrack the Artem wagon? What he wrote could be interpreted as calling for more people to join it...

Kairyuu 30
Lol. Took me a minute to get it; at first I thought you were saying Magnus's opinion that you quoted was your opinion.

Kairyuu 38
I agree with sentence #1. It's not clear whether it applies to Artem's post, but it does refute Magnus's point. However, my reading of your post 19 makes me feel like you could have had a similar opinion about Red Dye's attack on Artem (at that time, at least.) Is that correct?
I don't think Red Dye's vote was likely to "extend the RVS." Maybe over the long term in the site meta, attacking the first person who looks serious could make RVS's longer, but not within a given game.

Red Dye 41
When you say you've been posting seriously since your second post, does that mean you wanted a quicklynch of Artem?

Magnus 43 and 49
Artem had made one sentence in his defense, after you asked people for comments on your 3 points -- doesn't really look overly defensive, if that's what you mean.
I don't like part about no longer wanting people to comment on what you wrote earlier. It's not clear that you're necessarily saying "please ignore what I wrote before," but it gives me a feeling as if you were.

Mitey 63 and Claus 65
I agree. Blabbermouths (though it's not bothering me as long as it doesn't continue for the rest of the game.)

Claus, Red Dye, and Magnus 65-67
Claus's question is good and fair. Claus may be unhappy that I'm taking so much of pages 1 and 2 seriously with this post.

le Chat 78
I didn't find any major tells either, but I hope someone will disagree with that.

Magnus 83 and Nuwen 84
I find this suspicious too, not so much for the reason Nuwen does, but more because you seem timid about voting some other person.

Magnus 85
Given your posting frequency, why do you want to always have your vote on someone throughout day 1? And the way you refer to changing your mind looks a little like a plan on your part.

---

My vote on Magnus is no longer random. I'm thinking that Magnus looks moderately scummy. Kairyuu has some questions to answer but doesn't really look suspicious. Red Dye looks slightly townish, but is playing strangely (though I dislike post 81.) Will need more spread out involvement before trying to figure others out. A Magnus wagon may help in that regard.

@Artem
How do you feel about unexplained, nonrandom votes?
How serious was your first post?

[Herodotus]

Magnus 92
You definitely don't seem timid in general, just with your vote. I don't understand why you would at this moment be voting someone you say you have a town read on, so I suspect your motive might be based on a scum alignment.

le Chat, I love the new avatar.

BOO at your 49 where you say you no longer want to hear opinions on this. BOO I say. I can comment both on this and on more current things.

He did respond in post 92 about this issue.

Remind me to say more about that within a few RL days.

Votecount 1-4
le Chat (1): Claus
Artem (2): Red_Dye; Magnus_Orion
Magnus_Orion (2): Herodotus; Nuwen
Red_Dye (2): Kairyuu; Albert B. Rampage

Not voting (5): MiteyMouse; Artem; Rosso_Carne; Konowa; le Chat

[Herodotus]

I don't know.
I suppose you intend to explain it later; if and when you do, I will evaluate your reason.

[Herodotus]

@Magnus
It's absolutely normal for a townie to comment on something odd about someone's behavior. I may not understand your possible motives, but I do know that what you did is not typical town play, so I suspect it to some degree.

hrm, so, I'm up for HAMMAH!-ing Red_dye, he's obviously scum.

More writing please. The replacement who showed up just a couple hours ago has said lots more than you.
Why do you think Red Dye is scum? I thought he looked okay on the first few pages. And why aren't you voting him if you think he's scum?

@Claus
I don't see anyone I would prefer to vote over Magnus so far.
If I wasn't voting him, I'd probably be voting for Rosso or Mitey to get them to post.

Speaking of that... MiteyMouse, what are your opinions of the people who were active early? (Beyond their being blabbermouths.)

[Herodotus]

Herotodus - Call me crazy - for an instant I thought you were not voting anyone.

That's probably because there's a mistake in the last votecount.

@mod: you have me both voting Magnus and not voting. (Can I be a double voter please? It's the simplest way to make the votecount accurate.)

Expecting more from rosso is futile.

Do you mean like killer seven -alt futile?

@Magnus
The difference is that Red Dye gave me a gut read of town.

[Herodotus]

Mitey, I suppose I could temporarily proxy one of my two votes to you. Where would you put it? Go ahead and indicate by using the official voting format.

[Herodotus]

There's something I almost missed.
Artem, in your past playstyle, you would not state that you have a townie read on someone. Why did you make an exception in post 51?

[Herodotus]

Kairyuu 38
I agree with sentence #1. It's not clear whether it applies to Artem's post, but it does refute Magnus's point. However, my reading of your post 19 makes me feel like you could have had a similar opinion about Red Dye's attack on Artem (at that time, at least.) Is that correct?

Not quite sure what you're asking here. Rephrase?

Sorry, I'm not a very clear writer...

1. The first approach to ending the RVS is more likely to be made my town than scum, though it could be made by either.

I didn't think what you said necessarily applied to Artem's post, because I didn't interpret post 7 as an attempt to end the RVS.
But I was thinking that Red Dye's posts about voting/quicklynching Artem were an attempt to end the RVS. So they could be coming from either town or scum. In post 19 you seemed to be taking them as coming from scum. I didn't understand whether you were serious in post 19, or why you didn't take his early posts as a null-tell. (Until post 41, at least.)
I need to reread Red Dye. But I'm busy this weekend, so it will have to wait.

[Herodotus]

If she had a problem with it, she'd ask me to quit. No need to play paladin 316.

I have a problem with it, even if Nuwen doesn't.

[Herodotus]

I'd like to hear Red Dye's opinions.
Red ISO 21 and 22:
What he said here is true, but it could also be taken as an excuse to lie.
Most of his posts in the past week have not been useful. He's taking credit for getting reactions, but has no opinion on the reactions. Now that Kairyuu has posted, his reason in ISO 29 no longer applies.

Rosso Carne:
Slightly scummy, but a mostly neutral read. I can't imagine regretting a Rosso lynch. However, it looks like now that there is a wagon on him, he is posting opinions. For now, that's good enough for me. If he were to disappear, or stop the trickle of content, I would vote/hammer him.

Mitey:
Even if you tend to be inactive on day 1's, you can do better than this.
You've said almost nothing, and that is not consistent with the town meta I have of you.

I'm satisfied with Magnus's answers to the questions I asked.

unvote

[Herodotus]

@Claus:
My suspicion of Red Dye is about 30% of the way from No Read to Definite Scum. I got the impression from his early posts that he wanted to get action going in order to scumhunt, which looked protown; but his attitude after that looks to me like "there are posts there, go ahead and analyze them, town." If he's town, this is not helpful. And I've seen scum say essentially the same thing.
I'll cover Mitey in a separate post.

You wrote your most recent opinion of le Chat on the last page... I don't know why you'd point to Rosso's quoting of it. Anyways, looking at le Chat's posts, he obviously has a tendency to agree with people, and to repeat what others have said. And he's pointing it out pretty often, too. I think there could be a lot to gain from seeing how he responds now that you've pointed this out, especially if you are town.

[Herodotus]

Mitey... what little she has posted has not impressed me.
ISO 4, while it's not false, is an exaggeration. I've played one game with her. She posted during day 1, took positions independently, and hunted for scum.
ISO 5: Policy lynching is okay in general, but something about "I don't necessarily find player X scummy... but vote: X anyways" sounds familiar in a bad way. (I know the vote came first,

@Mitey:
Please give us a list of the people most likely to be scum.
Also, what is your current read on Nuwen?

vote: MiteyMouse

[Herodotus]

Forgot to finish that sentence.
(I know the vote came first, but ISO 5 looks like it's mostly about supporting her vote.)

[Herodotus]

Le Chat 260 is giving me a townish feeling.

@Red Dye, can you explain why your approach to this game is better for the town than if you were to explain your ideas?
If you're quite certain that Kairyuu is scum, why do you not wish to try to persuade people of that?

[Herodotus]

@Magnus
I have two previous games with Claus. My opinion is that in this game, he's opaque. I can't read him very well, but there are two things working in his favor:
1. He has accused a player (le Chat) who would otherwise be going under the radar.
2. His posting in this game has a similar feel to his posting in Betrayal Mafia, where he was town. Lots of questions, a wide view, and some long posts. The biggest difference is that in that game, he was doing more votecount analysis than he is in this game... but due to something that I'm not allowed to discuss, this is not a reason to suspect him.
I also noticed that he voted Magnus after I changed from a random to a real vote, then he voted MiteyMouse in his next post after I did. But I don't find that scummy; I think it's more likely we find similar things suspicious about some other players.
I'd give him 10% on a scale from No Read to Definite Town.

There were a number of reasons why some time passed before I unvoted you, but the main one is that my vote ≠ my attention.
The post in which I voted Mitey was an ISO-read. It was short because she hasn't posted much, meaning there wasn't much on which to comment. I'm not going to write essays.

[Herodotus]

I'm confused. What players is Magnus trying to chain together (you mean accuse groups of people of being scumbuddies, right?) I don't see where Magnus is trying to do that, at least not yet.

[Herodotus]

MM is scum. That is all.

That looks about right. A quick skim of her other games makes her play here still more suspect.

[Herodotus]

And Ojanen, le Chat, and VPB voted Nuwen.

Was there any reason why you said L-3 in post 317?

[Herodotus]

I get that part, but your vote wasn't L-3, it was L-4.
Was wondering whether there was any significance to that.

[Herodotus]

My first guess would be that he didn't consider your unvote.

[Herodotus]

@VP:
You don't have to shut up, but I want Artem to answer before I explain what I think this could imply.

[Herodotus]

So, I was thinking that if Artem wasn't paying much attention to VP's vote, it's unlikely that they are scum together.

Artem, why would VP voting for Nuwen influence you to vote for MM if you were choosing between them? (Regardless of whom he was voting previously.)

[Herodotus]

Okay, competing wagons. Now that Rayfrost is at L-2, are you considering moving to the Fish wagon?

[Herodotus]

That's reasonable.

@Mod: Claus needs a prod, badly.

[Herodotus]

Well, this is frustrating.
Need thoughts please.

@Claus:
Please reappear before you're replaced. I was looking forward to playing with you.

@Rayfrost:
Say something meaningful.

@Artem:
Instead of waiting for Rayfrost, maybe you could tell us your other idea. Even if you don't want to move your vote, talking about where you are considering moving your vote or making another case could help to advance the game.

[Herodotus]

Page 16:

I find the stereotype that wagons on scum don't go fast a statement far too generalized to provide useful conclusions.

I agree. I've seen little causative correlation between wagon speed and the person's alignment (outside of special circumstances like lylo.)

Rayfrost 398
You said "everybody" but I feel left out. Also, Ojanen.
re: VP. I really hope that wasn't a comment on an ongoing game.
re: Magnus. I would assume that the first sentence is a joke. The second sentence is that his early thinking Artem was scum is confusing you... how is that scummy?
re: Chamber. Why is he neutral when Magnus is scummy? It looks like early thinking that Artem is scummy attracts enough of your suspicion to put Magnus in your top three (or are you seriously running with the comment on Magnus being opposed to Kairyuu?) Why treat Chamber differently?

[Herodotus]

@Percy, regarding le Chat's post 260:

I'm not sure whether this was my original reason for finding that post townish -- I didn't make notes -- but

i definitely want to continue discussing myself with claus so have at it and whatnot.

My gut tells me that a relative newbie scum isn't as likely to say that as a newbie townie.

@Herodotus: What is your opinion of Red-Dye/chamber currently?

My opinion of him has gone downhill since the original gut read that you quoted.
His talk about Kairyuu looks like an excuse not to scumhunt. Kairyuu isn't likely to be lynched, and Chamber doesn't seem to care; so I find it difficult to believe that Chamber is a townie who sincerely thinks that he has found a scum. Maybe for meta reasons, he doesn't want to make a case, but that only goes so far. If Chamber is town, and Kairyuu is scum, then whether Kairyuu is lynched is a major deciding factor in whether Chamber wins or loses. I would expect town-Chamber to try to cause others to agree with him, even if it's not by making a case. He could ask Kairyuu questions, or ask others questions that could lead them to reconsider him in a different light. He hasn't.

[Herodotus]

More about 260:

If someone blatantly says they dont know who is scum, they are scum. Flat out. If someone refuses to divulge their info, then its up o the questioner to figure out if theyre lying.

Welcome to mafia.

I don't know who is scum but I'm not scum. I think some people are scummy but I'm fallible. Is that what you mean?

would also be brave for scum.

I found (260) to be very scummy, defining his opinions by what he doesn't think or feel

A lot of his statements are phrased as negatives, but are equivalent to opposite positive statements; this looks like a semantic issue. But there are also some positive statements, i.e. "i find both of these suspicious," and much of the paragraph directly following his vote.

[Herodotus]

@Chamber:

If Kairyuu is scum, but no but you knows it, he'll never be lynched. How would you feel about that?

[Herodotus]

What about Red Dye's play at that point gave you a gut read of town?

I got the impression from his early posts that he wanted to get action going in order to scumhunt, which looked protown

Basically, what Chamber later said about getting reactions looked like it was exactly what he was trying to do. I also thought he was a newbie; if someone played like he did within their first month after joining the site, I would probably still find them townish. The idea that he was an alt didn't occur to me until he said so; by that point my gut already had him down as pro-town.
But if he has nothing to say about the reactions he was trying to get, or did in fact get, it looks more like he only wanted the appearance of seeking reactions.

I also think it is a little weird that he says he has to reread Red Dye (as if he wasn't sure of any kind of read on him) when he had questioned him at least a little bit before. I would think he would have been assessing his read from those previous questions.

I'm not sure whether he answered my previous questions. He's talked about the issues a bit... but I feel like he's ignored most of the direct questions I have asked him since the game started. Which is also quite suspicious.

13-Votes MM here. Not sure what triggered this exactly, probably unvoting and wanting to find a new target. His reasons for voting her are 1) he believes she is exaggerating bad play on day 1 (though he admits at least some truth to this) 2) doesn't like her saying she doesn't find rosso scummy but votes him anyhow. These are fine enough reasons, though they aren't exactly original.

I'd disagree with you on the last phrase. When you say not original, do you mean I was copying someone else? I don't think anyone had mentioned either of these two specific points. What does originality mean in this context?

What games did you look at, hero?

I was (a) checking her general activity, and (b) looking at the size of her day 1 posts in games she was in at the time.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12291
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12188
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=12275
were all games she was in, and they were all on day one. I can't say anything more, as they are ongoing.
Now that she has replaced out, I'm not sure whether her relative activity in this game means so much; but I still think her excuse for it was deceitful.

19-22 This is where the strange questioning over Artem saying L-3 in his post began. I still didn't understand the line of inquiry.
23- After Artem has answered, Hero says that Artem not noticing my unvote means we are less likely to be scum together. I still find this method of scum hunting odd. Did you see a potential connection between us, Hero?

His missing your unvote from Mitey looked odd considering that he quoted it. I tried to figure out what it might mean (as Magnus pointed out earlier that it's better to try to understand the motivation behind something that is out of place.) The best I could come up with is that Artem wasn't particularly conscious of where your vote was over time. I was looking for a hint that this might rule out a connection between the two of you, as scumbuddies would be aware of each other. I'm not sure whether the evidence is good enough to make the assumption that you aren't scum together, but it's a point I would consider in the other's favor if one of you was revealed as scum.

I'll let Artem comment on the issue of himself before I do.

There's no chance I'm going to be consistently highly active. I have too many important things to do IRL, and writing takes me too long.
If that's a problem for a lot of people, I'm willing to request replacement. Unlike Percy, I am finding this game boring. But I'm secretly a lazy person.

[Herodotus]

i need to get a better grip on nuwen and artem but so far nothing bad.

I don't think you've mentioned Artem since then. Do you have a better grip on him?

Understand oj's vote on Nuwen and I will unvote vote Nuwen as well for now. Want to have Nuwen jump back into the game, I believe I expressed similar opinion in my last post.

Was this vote only a prod to make Nuwen post?
Any change with Fishy as a replacement?

[Herodotus]

I guess that means we won't be hearing Artem's explanation, so I'll skip ahead.

I think "competing wagons" is something town-Artem might consider a good reason for placing a vote. In our last game together (in which he was town,) he took some flak for his opinions about wagons. To paraphrase (and certainly miss the point in the process) he was placing his vote as an invitation to form a wagon. Then the scum were supposed to join the wagon, which would reveal them as scum. This may be a different situation, but the focus on how wagons move is the same.
That doesn't make him more townie, but it means I can understand why he might place his vote as he did if he is town.

I don't think RayFrost should be hammered right now, but he needs to come in and start talking, so his being at L-1 is fine.

le Chat needs that prod, too.

[Herodotus]

You're right. I didn't consider Percy's unvote.

[Herodotus]

Wait... the last votecount is wrong. Rayfrost is at L-1.

[Herodotus]

-Unvotes must be bolded, and are needed to vote someone else.

Percy is still voting Rayfrost. I don't know if that's the only miscounted vote.

I don't think it was intentional on his part.

unvote

so things can get straightened out before an accidental hammer.

[Herodotus]

Sorry for quadruple posting. I've just briefly skimmed everyone for votes. Percy's is the only vote that wasn't legal due to that rule.
Here's my understanding of the votecount as of this post (unless the Mod decides to go by Percy's apparent intent instead of the literal rule.)

Not an official VC

RayFrost (5): Percy; Artem; Kairyuu; VP Baltar; FishytheFish
FishytheFish: (2): Ojanen; le Chat
Kairyuu (1): Chamber
VP Baltar (1): magnus_orion

Not voting (3): Rosso_Carne; RayFrost; Herodotus

Not an official VC

[Herodotus]

Ok. Ignore my last three posts.

vote: Rayfrost (if necessary)

[Herodotus]

I initially quite liked Artem’s early “calling magnus a townie” gambit – but it looks worse when Nuwen does the precise same thing he was trying to trick magnus into doing, and he doesn’t react.

On a related note, that move from Nuwen looked like it might have been intentional. Not sure whether it was, or what the point was.

This seems off, if he thinks it is genuinely a good way to get a read – like Percy, I’d like to see his response to this.

Now that he's been replaced, I wouldn't wait for a response.

The whole defense of RF doesn’t ring true. If RF were to flip scum, I’d be very suspicious of magnus. If RF were to flip town, then he’s likely town.

Noted.
Can you comment on your thoughts about each of the scenarios where one is scum, the other town?

[Herodotus]

@VP Baltar
The parallels between the two situations were strong and obvious. I figured Nuwen couldn't help but notice that she was making a direct, opposite response from what Artem was saying he'd expect... but it was unclear where she wanted to go with that.

@mod: we need lots of prods.

(and like VP said, some real posts from the nearly silent.)

[Herodotus]

@Rayfrost
You haven't voted. Whom would you prefer to lynch, if not yourself?

[Herodotus]

@le Chat 484:
I was hoping to see what you had to say

before

Serial Clergyman caught up.


Rayfrost is looking as scummy as ever.

[Herodotus]

I don't agree with my understanding of Magnus's idea about the Rayfrost wagon. Mitey and he were looking pretty suspicious, and Ray's lynch was likely to happen regardless of how many scum voted him. So I would expect the scum might be just as likely to stay off the wagon in order to avoid attention as to be on it. In particular, I'm looking at Serial Clergyman. Artem joined the Rayfrost wagon because VP Baltar was leaving it (which, as I said, he might do as town;) then after it was clear that Ray was the lynch, Serial defended him and joined a new wagon. I'm not sure I believe that le Chat was more suspicious to town-Serial, or that Ray would have gotten a defense from town-Serial.

@Sajin:

You are more or less a blank slate in this game so far. In addition to general comments on the game, could you briefly give us your opinion on the few things that Rosso Carne said?

Edit: And now I see Percy has said similar things to some of what I've covered here.

[Herodotus]

Chamber,
Assuming that you're town and supposing Kairyuu is scum:
Do you believe that Kairyuu might be lynched soon?
Do you believe that your vote alone makes it more likely?
If not, do you believe that there is some other type of utility in your vote?
Do you believe that there is nothing you can do such that if your belief is correct, more players will reach the same conclusion?
I realize you have a playstyle, but I think that it can only hurt the game, not help.

[Herodotus]

More open ended than that, but:
Whether Sajin agrees with Rosso's opinions; his opinion on Rosso's play; any other comments he would make about the things Rosso said.

[Herodotus]

@Sajin: Instead of answering the question, you respond by questioning the usefulness of your hypothetical response?

vote: Sajin

To form more specific questions, do you agree with Rosso's opinions in context (i.e. when they were written) of:
up for hammering Red Dye (iso 1)
Magnus's question in post 154 was leading/loaded (iso 11)
up for hammering Mitey Mouse (iso 15)
that VP 178 was :goodposting: (iso 17)
that Artem 191 "reeks" (iso 20)
Rosso's approach in iso 21-23
magnus is town (iso 27)
iso 32 is a bit confusing; how do you interpret it?
"its people who are all 'i dont have a read on anyone' that are typically scum" (iso 34)
still willing to get on the tail end of MM (iso 37)
"not all about a claus lynch. c-man is helpful, and maybe a bit above the game right now, but I dont get the scummy vibes" (iso 38) though Claus might seem to know the setup
"MM is scum" (iso 41)
"not cool w/ a rayfrost lnch" (iso 42)
"starting to bounce on my old asssessment of claus" (iso 42)

Did you read the game before seeing your role PM? If so, did you consider Rosso likely town, likely scum, or somewhere in between? If not, what do you think your read on him would have been?

Special link just for Chamber. No one else is allowed to click on it.

I'm undecided about Serial Clergyman.
There's nothing wrong with trying to find townies (unless there's a cult, but I'm not sure those can exist in normal games.) Part of the issue here, though, is you declared that Ray was town for no apparent reason except that you agreed with one particular thing that Mitey said. I agree with some parts of the case Fishy posted, but I need to reread Artem.

I'm not going to have much time free for the next week and a half.

[Herodotus]

@Ojanen 606
When rereading earlier, I only noticed SC's big post, not the one you quoted. (I even had to iso him to see that he really said that.) I don't particularly agree with that post, as I think the game is less predictable than that.
Percy's 630 left me scratching my head, as I also don't remember SC talking about hammering, but he did. I'm not doing a good job of remembering the events of this game. Sorry; within a couple weeks, I'll be able to read and post more often, and probably be able to remember things better.

@Sajin
I'm not sure I understand what you're saying about meta; my question has nothing to do with meta. This question is this - what do you think of Rosso's play?

If I think my predecessor's actions are scummy what is YOUR conclusion? If I think they are town? A mix?

Here it seems that you want to know what the "right answer" is before you respond.
If you suspected that I could be asking a question designed to make you look scummy under false pretenses, why would you not want to find out whether that was the case?
Basically, I'd like you to answer the question. At least briefly. From one sentence to a short paragraph would suffice; I only posted the long list of points because you asked for specifics. To place hurdles in front of someone trying to ask you a question is very anti-town.

@Magnus- Specific questions please. le_chat was talkative and made odd questions about fence sitting.

(see previous paragraph)

I think I understand what Sajin means about chaining lynches, but I'll let him respond first.

@Chamber
The relevance is that your play feels unhelpful at times. I look forward to reading the wikipage you mention, even if you don't write it during this game.

[Herodotus]

People really need to stop asking the rb to claim. Everytime someone does it limits who it might be.

Not only is Chamber right, but I think we should completely stop discussing it. If any particular player feels that claiming would be a good idea, they can do it. If there is a roleblocker out there, they have access to all the information we have collectively, plus some of their own. They know there was no night kill, and if they feel that they prevented one, that's up to them. None of us are stupid enough not to understand the implications of claiming or not, and that player is in the best position to make the decision.

@Iam, Percy:
I haven't been active much today. I've already explained that this is due to RL stuff, and will change in about a week.

@Magnus:
What do you think of the wagon (SC 659, VP 661) on Fishy that followed Iam's case? Two other players agreed with Iam's points; does that effect your belief that Iam misrepresented Fishy?

[Herodotus]

About my question to Sajin:
In mini 817, I asked Raivann a similar question when he replaced Nuwen. His answer is here. He was scum. In that game, I didn't get into too much discussion about the characteristics of his answer, in part because making a case on him didn't seem as important as trying to read the other players based on their interactions with him. But I would expect scum to:
(1) support the bulk of their predecessor's opinions, since they are chosen strategically based on information that both the original and replacement player had. A townie is likely to disagree with more things because their opinions will be based on a personal reading of the thread, and the original player and the replacement have less hidden knowledge in common (in most cases, only the knowledge of their own role.) So there would be much less correlation between their opinions.
(2) say that their predecessor was doing a good job of scumhunting and being pro-town. I would expect a townie would feel less need to spin their predecessor's play as more pro-town than it was.

I would like to have seen Sajin's answer previously, but it doesn't look like he was going to answer.

@ VP (and Magnus):
I haven't had a chance to try to compare the argument with fishy's posts to see whether Iam was misrepresenting fishy, but it seemed peculiar that two players would join the same wagon right after an argument that was based on misrepresenting. In particular, SC more or less just said "Iam's right, vote: fishy". I would figure that if he's town, he'd check into the claims before simply agreeing and voting, and if he's scum with Iam, he'd probably be more cautious about simply jumping on with his partner right away. To me this suggests they aren't likely scum together, though I wouldn't take that for granted; also I'm not expecting so much to find misrepresentation (unless, as you seem to feel, it's subtly done.)

[Herodotus]

@Mod: I will be limited access until Tuesday.

I should probably mention a couple things on Sajin.
He's my top suspect, so I'm leaving the vote. When I asked him about Rosso, he twice tried to avoid answering. The first time, I voted him to add some pressure, and because his evasiveness felt anti-town. The second time, he seemed to want to know what kind of answer would make him appear pro-town. I'm a little confused about how openly he asked that, but the WIFOM isn't convincing me that he's less likely to be scum.

On the subject of chaining lynches: I don't think that SC's approach was chaining lynches, though I can see how he could refer to it that way. By partitioning the town into one group who are assumed to be pro-town, and one group that isn't, and locking that partition in place, it would be easy to form multiple lynches from among the outsiders. In fact, every time you mislynch one of the outsiders, that apparently makes it much more likely that each of the others is scum. I don't think that SC was trying to do that. He did not seem intent on making others agree to his townreads or keeping everyone's reads locked in place on future days.

[Herodotus]

I'm rereading day 2. Not all of this is necessarily relevant.

Page 23
With their talk about opposing alignments, a magnus/Kairyuu scumpair would be interesting (though it looks unlikely -- I don't have a scum read from either.)

Might go back and see if there were alternatives to the Ray wagon that got shut down (aside from the last ditch le chat effort.)

Any conclusions? I saw the alternative wagons as Fishy and le Chat, but I don't see that as a reason to suspect them.

In particular, if doubts are not continued to be expressed by a larger group of the town, a convenient little group is forming trying to call my wagon theory into doubt, which aligns perfectly with how I would perceive the scum to act at this point if my thinking is correct.

Did you follow up on this? Do you find anyone more suspicious as a result? What do you think of VP's response in 581 and Percy's response in 583?

Page 24
The first time I saw Fishy's post 580 it made me a little concerned that he was following along with a wagon he saw coming after Percy and I expressed suspicions of SC. But his earlier comments in 464 are consistent with his vote, even if I might attribute a couple of those points to Artem's playstyle.
I don't see why people (Ojanen 584, eg.) are commenting on Chamber switching the account that he uses. As soon as he revealed that Red Dye was an alt of his, the metas should merge, and it doesn't matter which account he uses to post. (Although one could argue that he revealed that he was Chamber due to early pressure over not discussing the first few pages.)
SC 585: Narrowing your focus is fine, though if the scum determine which of your 6 candidates will be lynched, it's not so useful. It's important to have some positive preferences for the lynch.
"alacrity"?

@Sajin:
What do you think of day 1?
I don't think you've answered Magnus's 646:

I asked for your opinion on le chat...

I've explained how the answer I would expect from a townie differs from the answer I would expect scum to make. Do you still believe that I intended to use any answer you gave as an excuse to vote you? Also, I don't understand:

I just have zero reason to give that information of my read of my predecessor. It is my viewpoint that all you could conclude off of it is distorted views of my alignment.

I think that your answer would have provided a non-distorted (though not 100% guaranteed correct) view of your alignment. If you're town, you have a good reason to want that.

[Herodotus]

I saw the alternative wagons as Fishy and le Chat, but I don't see that as a reason to suspect them.

Before I go into my reading of the situation, I'd like you to answer why you don't find tht a reason to suspect them?

I didn't see the wagon on Rayfrost as a counterwagon against those wagons. Sometimes if one of the scum is in danger of being lynched, the scum will counterwagon a townie. In that case, the second largest wagon will be on a scum when a townie is lynched. But neither Fishy nor le Chat appeared too likely to be lynched IIRC.
If you have a different theory on why alternative wagons are likely to be on scum (other than people simply accurately finding scum, which isn't based on the wagons,) I would like to hear it. Or if you think there was a high chance of one of the alternative wagons reaching a lynch, why?

Also, while I'm still here, could I get your thoughts on Ojanen? Percy, Fishy, Hero, Kai? I'm looking for town, scum or neutral?

I don't think this was directed at me, but Oj and Fishy are neutral but leaning town, Percy looks town (though I'm not certain,) and Kai is neutral but leaning scum. I've seen Herodotus's role PM, so I'm certain they are town. I should mention that I've only superficially read anything after page 25, except Sajin's last couple posts.

[Herodotus]

Page 25
[off-topic]Hmm... any given player is more likely to be town than scum, so I don't find it surprising that you're often right when you call someone town.[/off-topic]
Kairyuu 611:
Anything else to say about le Chat?
Why call for someone to claim? If a RBer might claim because they believe they blocked a scum kill, they're in the best position to decide.
My gut doesn't like your approach to Chamber here.

Page 26
Percy 627: I find the reasons for suspecting SC here compelling, other than possibly the issue of wagon analysis vs. looking at le Chat's reason for voting, where I can that you might be taking past each other.
SC 628:
There was little chance of Rayfrost not being lynched. Your calling him town was not going to prevent a mislynch. Either you are scum, and you did it for townie points (which you are now flaunting,) or you are town, and just happened to read him correctly despite some suspicious behavior.
The speed of your wagon was a bit surprising, yes, but do you disagree with the arguments made about you? To counter it primarily by calling attention to your townie points is odd. You may not be able to tell us what Artem was thinking, but you can defend his actions that Fishy mentioned in post 580.
Yes, Kairyuu-scum could get a townie RB to claim, and then decide it's not game breaking. Or make a fakeclaim to neutralize the information gain. When the RB is NKed, that wouldn't automatically implicate the person who asked them to claim.
I don't like Kairyuu 629 at all:
You're backtracking from a huge declaration, that the claim would lead directly to a gamebreak.
Handing us one scum on a silver platter? There's virtually no way you could be more aware of that than the RB themself would be, if there is one.
The fos on Percy is reaching. I don't think he was arguing that a RB claiming was a bad idea; the bad idea was you directing a PR to claim.
Other than the fos, Kairyuu seems interested only in his claim request at this point, not in scumhunting.
Ojanen asks some good questions. Sajin is incredibly evasive toward her and Magnus. Asking for your opinion on a player is not strong-arming a lynch. Sajin is misrepresenting a lot of players.

[Herodotus]

False. Scum would like to falsely have someone believe they are town. If I believe the information is irelevent and null, then why should I provide material you could only use to misrep? You believe it would be a non distorted view? I believe your view of my view would be incredibly distorted.

It's not really up to you to decide what others consider relevant to forming an impression of your alignment.
I believe that your reaction would have provided myself and possibly others with good insight into your alignment, and I've stated a theory about why. You believe otherwise, but you're just making an assertion about a hypothetical situation.
To put it more straightforwardly, do you believe that I would have reached an incorrect conclusion about your alignment from your answer to my question? Why?
If that's not what you meant, then how would my view of you be distorted? I don't understand.

[Herodotus]

As a side note do you believe in Lynch all Liars?

No, but I expect anyone who lies to have a good justification they can give as soon as the lie is discovered. I believe in FoS All Liars.

I figure the only reason I am being asked about day 1 stuff is to comment on rosso carne's play.

No, right now I see little point to that. I asked you about day 1 because so far the only thing I can find that you've said about anything that happened on day 1 is:

@Magnus- Specific questions please. le_chat was talkative and made odd questions about fence sitting.

which was itself a sidestep of the question Magnus was asking.
As I mentioned above, you still have not provided your read on le Chat, despite your semi-defense of him in post 639. (In my experience, that alone wouldn't make you scum. In one game, I refused to differentiate whether my read on another player was "neutral" or "town", and was mislynched in part because of that.) But it's not the only question you've refused to answer, which is bad.

Since the entirety of questions I have been asked has been about yesterday...

Wait, what? Just doing a search for your name suggests that most questions directed at you have been about things you've said. Today.

How have I misrepresented "a lot of players"? Can you explain this please?

Why are multiple people strong arming a lynch for Le_chat? Can someone post me a case rather then not quoted vague referenced meta and referencing his one "this vote is so I am not fence sitting post".

I don't think anyone was, or is, strong arming a lynch on le Chat.

[Herodotus]

@SC: I missed the other wagon, on Rosso.
What do you draw from the competing wagons? Sorry if you've already answered this.

Hero, there have been several replacements in this game. If you think the answer to this question is such a useful gauge of alignment, why was Sajin the only one you asked it to?

The only player for whom it seemed best was Sajin, because Rosso was tough to get a good read on. And it's not a tell that's likely to be useful if overused. Although now that you mention it, I probably should have asked every replacement (other than VP) to perform the exercise at the same time as Sajin.

---

~5 hours of reading, fact-checking, and note-taking.

Page 27
Magnus's defense of Kairyuu comes off as sincere.
Kairyuu, you talked about coming up with a method to guarantee a town win, but it wasn't going to materialize. I doubt the setup can be broken so early.
[off-topic]Roles you've never heard of can be included in normal games.[/off-topic]
@Percy 654:
I don't think Chamber is a good place to look for scum right now.
In the first game I ever read, the scum forgot to send in a kill on the first two nights. I will be making no assumptions about what the lack of kills means.
@Iam 657 and Fishy 662:
On the first issue, at first glance I would interpret 343 as saying that Fishy's scumlist was Chamber/MM/Rosso, so I don't think that was intended as a misrepresentation. But reading the specific comment on MM ("I’m not so sure this is a scumtell, more a not-wanting-to-get-lynched tell. Can't really decide about this one - gently leaning scum, but nowhere near a vote atm.") I don't think that it's a LoS.
I dislike accusations based on a player not having controvertial opinions. If someone has opinions which agree with others, that's not a scumtell. Contradiction may be useful, but townies don't generally play devil's advocate.
The second quote is taken out of context. If you hadn't removed the rest of the paragraph, it isn't hypocritical. And Fishy

did

talk about his wagon, in his second post (343).

Post #464, 2 weeks and 5 pages after he joined the game, is really the first time Fishy comments on anyone besides RayFrost, chamber and Rosso (and even with those, his comments on Rosso were the very definition of fence-sitting). It also happens to arrive just a few days before deadline, well after there is any chance of anyone besides RayFrost being lynched. Very much seeing it as sowing the seeds for attacks on D2, now that he's satisfied that the Ray lynch is done and dusted.

There was a week left, which is enough time to form a new lynch wagon. Granted, RF was pretty suspicious and a new wagon was unlikely, but this isn't right.

- Both Nuwen and Fishy have definitely displayed an attitude of not making waves, trying to fly under the radar, etc.

I disagree with this; it's incongruous with what you said about him sowing the seeds for a D2 attack. Was he planning to both attack and not make waves? Maybe he would have done either, but not both.
Iam's attack on me is deliberately vague. I'd like to hear more from Iam about his case on Fishy and his comment on me.

On the other side of the spectrum, chamber is town. As is fitting for discussing chamber, I'm not going to explain why.

I think this is something on which almost everyone can agree. In fact, all of Iam's townreads have looked relatively good. And there's nothing wrong with the noncontroversial nature of those reads.
@VP 661:

so....
Right now, I'm thinking iamausername and sajin are happy-happy scum buddies that need to be hung in a particularly violent, groupthink driven frenzy.

I could see this potentially, particularly since iam doesn't even mention him in his wall post.

Iam did mention Sajin in that post, to criticize me for the question I asked him and for voting him.
At this point, VP makes a point against Fishy and votes him. I don't like this; it feels a little like trying to take both sides. I think the point is based on true statements about Fishy, but it's unconvincing regarding his alignment.
VP made plenty of great points yesterday, but hasn't (as of page 27) done much today to reinforce a town read. Given (her? did you change your gender icon?) play in the /in-vitational, this has me slightly concerned.

Fishy 662 points out the problem with

Moving onto D2, his first move is to vehemently disagree with magnus's suggestion that the Ray wagon is a good place to look for scum.

FoS: Iamausername

. Must read on...

I would like you both to detail which of iaaun’s points you agree with.

Amend my read on Fishy to very likely town + <3.

Kairyuu isn't talking about the players, just setup and other games.

Page 28
I don't understand Ojanen 675. Fishy gave his opinion on RayFrost's reads during day 1. 683 doesn't make it any clearer.
Percy 676:
You quoted a comment from Fishy on SC's defense. Are you saying it wasn't sufficient?
Fishy specified "Ongoing games in which you are unconfirmed" as not making a good meta defense for SC.

The rest of IAUN's case was good, but Fishy's response was good too.

Overall, a firm FoS: Fishythefish.

What about IAUN's case was good?

Sort of answered in 709, though I don't really see what you mean about the case being good.

But it also highlighted the fact that fishy's targets throughout the game have been the typical lynchbait targets - chamber and rosso and rayfrost and the like. They are exactly the sort of targets that scum love pushing - unusual playstyles that seem more scummy than they are.

I'm not sure the right way to express this question. Why do scum attack "lynchbait targets" as opposed to other targets?
I agree with pretty much all of VP 692.
Iam 697:
Upon rereading, Fishy doesn't mention MM lurking at all, and doesn't accuse Rayfrost of it until ISO 8.

Fair point. I used the word 'scumlist' to mirror Fishy's use of the word in talking about MM, but in both cases, it's not really accurate. See:

When he posts again, suspects are 1) a lurker 2) RD (examine), 3) Rosso. Of these,

only one is for scummy reasons

, and these are not hugely compelling – not a good scumlist.

for an equivalent contradiction.

My top 3 suspects are (in no particular order)

Iam is now among my suspects. The majority of his first case is based on inaccuracies, and he doesn't want to talk about his accusation toward me, so it looks like it could be a way to lie low after an earlier misstep. I expect to hear that I'm "exploiting Magnus's tunnelvision" now.
Obviously Serial and VP don't look so good for following along, either. VP seemed to have her own reason, though that reason looked like a null-tell to me. But they've been doing other things, while Iam hasn't (up to this point.)

IAM, why do you suspect me? (Especially at the time you said so.)

Page 29
SC, if you're mostly looking to follow Iam or Ojanen, it's odd that you didn't mention Iam's new vote in this post. What do you think of it?
If there's a reason you might vote for Fishy again due to something on D1, why not mention what that reason is?
Ojanen's 713: why only if Sajin has a suspect who has votes? Right now, I want Sajin to state his reads on everyone.

This, as far as I can tell, is primarily rubbish. Not only are town reads always useful, and obviously so, you can judge someone perfectly well by who they declare town. You had a good serious list of people I wasn't prepared to lynch on D1 - you're welcome to judge me on that.

I kinda like this paragraph, at least from a theory point of view to apply to games in general. But there isn't any evidence that SC's townread on Ray was reached in a townish way or for pro-town reasons. Magnus differed here as his town read on Ray had a chance of preventing the Ray lynch and he argued it energetically.
Not sure why SC finds Iam so townish.
The end of 714 looks consistent with a 'blame the townies for a mislynch' strategy that someone mentioned earlier, and is a major shift from SC's first post of D2. It doesn't make him look any worse, though, since I suspect he might say the same as either scum or town.

[Herodotus]

rosso/serial

rosso/sajin?
artem/serial?

Do you think Sajin is likely town? Other?

[Herodotus]

I would prefer that I didn't have to leave the game, but I don't see how I can catch up and keep up without it interfering with work or other important stuff. I delayed saying this for a couple days in case I could change my mind, but no. I need to be replaced. My apologies to Amished and the other players.

[Herodotus]

- Though it didn’t happen here, it seems a bit harsh that a n1 cop investigation can autoloss two players.

We almost had me killing VP on night one. Percy would have remained a townie, but it still would have been harsh for VP.