Mini 192 - Circus mafia - Game Over! Discuss?

[mepmuff]

vote: Nightfall

No particular reason.

[mepmuff]

No, I'm voting for you.

[mepmuff]

No, you inherited my vot

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Oops, almost forgot about this game. Sorry.

unvote: JereIC, vote: Rubric

For sloppy play as best-case and being scum as worst.

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With at least one person so eager to push the wagon further forward, I'm going to

unvote

to think on that response by Rubric.

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Rubric: I want you to either confirm or deny that mason story. If you are mason with some candy-seller, we can always demand your partner to come forward in the future. I see no need to demand that now.

[mepmuff]

Mmmm.... I agree the dynamic looks awkward with the random factor, but I think Rubric's claim can easily be proven in the first few days.

I'm very curious to what this clairvoyant is all about if it isn't a cop, but I'm willing to take Rubric's assesment on whether to divulge that info or not along with his claim for now.

I'm going to

vote: Phoebus

. I'm getting nervous by that minimalistic posting style.

[mepmuff]

Phoebus, I don't expect anyone to be a big poster if they normally aren't. But your posts looked to me to be intended to leave as much options open while not putting yourself out in the open. Hence me getting nervous.

To all those voting Rubric: If Rubric's claim is false, don't you think his claim will be his downfall? I think there will come an opportunity for him to prove his claim.

[mepmuff]

Ok, I took it upon myself to count the votes.

Votes:

Phoebus: Rubric, mepmuff, d_rouge
d_rouge: Phoebus, PBuG, LoudmouthLee

Not voting: brushhopper, JereIC, Stewie, davidangelsummers

Currently I'm wondering about PBuG. On page 4 he voted Rubric, saying something about a dent instead of a scratch on the bullshitt detector. On this page (page 5, in case this post appears on page 6) I find his move of vote quite lighthearted considering that page 4 post.

PBuG: Care to expand on you retracting your vote for Rubric?

[mepmuff]

mmmm.... Am I crazy, or does that bolding mean Phoebus is probably at four votes?

[mepmuff]

1) I think the premises on which this wagon was started were weak. We have some people on it who have definately been exaggerating the clown thing.

2) d_rouges claim conjures up more questions than answers. d_rouge: is your role proofable? If so, can you tell us when or how without telling us your powers? If not, I fear you may have to tell us more...

[mepmuff]

I think Rubric should fire someone.

[mepmuff]

I agree with the mass claim. I'm not sure whether letting LML claim last is a good idea. He's not high on my list, but I find a strange request.

Reading his posts does put me in a position where I want to claim first however. So, here goes: I'm a cop, indercover in the circus (I'm keeping my cover to myself for now). I've checked d_rouge night one (clear) and phoebus night 2 (no PM received on that investigation, but he's one dead bad guy).

Personally I'd like to see JereIC and Stewie claim next. I think d_rouge should claim last, because I've investigated him night one and he's clear. LML claiming he can prove that puts him in a good enough position for me to agree to him claiming as one of the last persons.

Btw: I'm hoping we can get two good suspects today, so we can instruct rubric to fire one while we lynch the other. He's verifiable now, so let's see if we can give him that chance. Speedlynching Rubric is not the way to handle this day IMHO.

[mepmuff]

Reading back I find my first sentence weird. It's his request which troubles me, but the content of his posts means more to me.

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LML: One question on your proovability. How much time will that take? I've been assuming you could proove it before nightfall, as you've been on rubric's case who has a chance to proove his role overnight.

[mepmuff]

Regarding LML: If he can't prove his role, we just lynch him.

As it appears neither JereIC nor Stewie is inclined to claim next on their own accord, I'll pick Stewie, who can than decide who goes after him. I'm also fine with JereIC taking stewie's spot.

[mepmuff]

So, that just leaves Lee to claim, right? I better get myself a beer and some crackers, because LML surely got my interest....

[mepmuff]

Looking at the claims in total, I'm shocked to see there's no doc!

Now for some gut reactions:

Quailman, MASON, pro-town, SHOT NIGHT 1
Yggdrasil, CLAIRVOYANT, pro-town, STABBED NIGHT 1
PBuG, MASON, pro-town, SHOT NIGHT 2
Phoebus, SK/MASON, anti-town, FIRED NIGHT 2
davidangelsummers, RINGMASTER, pro-town, STABBED NIGHT 2

This clearly show Phoebus alliance as being evil. LML being a good guy mason together with a bad guy one??? What's that about? LML's proof is also weak to say the least. You're mason claim is believable enough, but you being a food guy isn't. Also: I fail to see why spelling out your buddies name seemed like a good idea?

Rubric is more in the clear now IMHO, because of the lack of a doc. Having a cop, no doc and no backup option would be too weird. The vigilante role looks like another likely option to have this game balanced.

The Circus owner looks a bit out of place. Firstly because we already had the ringmaster who could fire someone. Who's he to fire people if the owner is actually around? Furthermore, the save someone from a lynch feels a bit weird to me. I would also like to know if you can save yourself.

JereIC's claim is the hardest to put a gut reaction on. It feels ok power-wise, but it's also a nice claim for a bad guy.

With regard to my choices: d_rouge was a random pick. Read back day one and see that I kept away from his wagon. My selection of Phoebus for my night two check shouldn't come as a surprise once you've read back day one.

I don't have the time to go deeper right now, so I've kept it at gut reactions. I'll think things over some more before pointing my finger in a more threatening way.

[mepmuff]

I'm undercover as a juggler.

I'm seeing all the typo's in my previous post now I hope you're able to read what I meant.

[mepmuff]

It would also be a disaster if they're both scum. I would like stewie to tell us if he can save himself, and what would happen if he saves someone, before I would even consider trying to lynch him. Would we end up with a no lynch, or get a shot at someone else?

[mepmuff]

I've been wondering about the ringmaster. He fired a bad guy, which according to Rubric got him killed. Noone else was stabbed however, so that would mean Phoebus targeted david as well, wouldn't it?

LML: Day 1, you believed Phoebus to be a good guy, correct? And just to make sure I understand you: You put in the subliminal message for the event that a mass claim would come up and Phoebus would have died by then? Also, you have two nights of communications with Phoebus. Night one probably isn't that interesting, but I would like to know what you discussed night two.

I've also started rereading the thread. I've covered the first two pages sofar and found the floowing two posts highly interesting:

No counterclaim seems like you are indeed who you are and a good candidate for doc protection, if there is a doc in this game.

No counterclaim seems like you are indeed who you are and a good candidate for doc protection, if there is a doc in this game.

Why would that make him a good candidate for doc protection? If his mason buddy is dead isn't he a vanilla townie? I know that he is basically confirmed as townie aligned, but he is still a vanilla townie.

Fos LML

With no further claims bearing, PBug's the only "confirmed innocent", unless, of course, there's mafia in the scum pairings. Since I highly doubt that, I'd rather teh doc protect someone wothwhile.

I'm not jumping to conclusions yet since I've only reread the first two pages. Since I only have short spand of time available I'll have to do this in parts.

[mepmuff]

I'm an undercover cop pretending to be a juggler.

[mepmuff]

If a vig kill isn't possible because of the lynch or loose situation, shouldn't rubric be scum as well according to your reasoning?

[mepmuff]

just realized the answer: no, as rubric dies if he fires scum.

[mepmuff]

Regarding the ringmaster, I was basing myself on Rubric's explanation. I'm assuming that he said he would die if he fired scum was based on the role PM, and not on the fact that our first ringmaster died. Rubric is free to redtify me.

[mepmuff]

I think we should slow down a bit. We're not only looking for a lynch, we need to discuss nighttime strategy as well. If we have a firing and a vig kill tonight, we could loose even if we lynch a bad guy.

Right now I'm thinking JereIC and Stewie are scum and one of brushhopper, LML and Rubric. Having someone vig-kill JereIC is pretty useless, because if he doesn't die we don't know who was lying (if any).

Rubric is good, I think. If he was mafia, why would they kill PBuG? With a SK out there, killing someone else would have given a bad-guy Rubric more options to support his claim.

LML is likely to be good. His subliminal message is weird It's also the same post where he votes PBuG, who is killed the next night, but if that was the actual message is doesn't make sense as they could have discussed that at night. Phoebus has also been giving out messages commenting on weird set-ups. Probably for getting an alibi. If LML is a good guy, I would expect that. If LML is a bad guy it just seems dangerous.

That leaves Brushhopper, Stewie and JereIC. I'm currently thinking we should let Rubric and Brushhopper have a go at eachother, but I'm not near certain that that would actually be the wisest course of action.

To those who think my claim was false: I knew my targets were easy choices for a fake cop. That, and LML's wanting to claim last statement, is why I claimed first.

[mepmuff]

I'm thinking jereIC is actually the best choice for vig kill. The thing is, if we vig kill a pro-town player, the game is over, just like if we miss a lynch. Using a vig kill on jereIC is a no-lose situation -- either we vig kill a lying scum, or he is telling the truth and we DON'T accidentally kill a pro-town player.

My concerns regarding this strategy are that it test JereIC's claim, only if the vig's claim is true. If JereIC doesn't die we don't know if it was because JereIC is telling the truth or because the vig in question is lying.

[mepmuff]

Perhaps we should have both vigs fire at one target?

[mepmuff]

mepmuff: if they both target the same person, how do we know which one is lying, that is if there is someone lying.

We have one firing and the claimed vig would kill in a different way. That's how we would know. I'm assuming we'll get to know when someones been targeted more than once here though.

[mepmuff]

I'm missing something here: why would that make rubric scum?

So, besides lynching stewie, what night action do you think we need?

[mepmuff]

Never mind, I just read your post properly... bloody mornings, need more coffee...

We still need a solid night plan though.

[mepmuff]

Juggling was easier to learn for this cop. I'm not a real circus artist and going the acrobat route I would definately hurt myself. I'm posing as a juggler, and that was an order. Nothing I can do about it.

About who I should investigate: That's largely dependant on what we do with the vig kills. And deciding the vig action before the investigation is the correct order IMHO.

Yes, I was a lot more suspicious of you and Stewie than I was of brushhopper at the start of this day. Brushhopper has managed to catch up since.

[mepmuff]

Silly question?

[mepmuff]

Where is brushhopeer by the way?

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brushhopper. Assuming we lynch Stewie, what are your nighttime plans?
Rubric: Same question.

[mepmuff]

Rubric: Like I stated before: If he survives we still don't know if it's because you/Brushhopper has been lying or JereIC telling the truth. Having both of you target JereIC might be a good plan though. If JereIC survives, we know he's telling the truth with the most certainty we can get on that I think. This scenario would only be an option if we lynch scum though and would put us in another lynch or loose scenario tomorrow if JereIC is good. Any opinions? JereIC: Do you think you'll survive a double attack as well?

I expect to die tonight, so it would be really helpfull if we can figure out a way to really prove some people goodness 100%.

Perhaps we should devise two scenario's. One to be carried out if we lynch scum and one when we hit an innocent.

[mepmuff]

I'm wondering why people are supicious of me because I'm discussing nighttime strategy while there are others who don't butt in there. To me, those who are not discusing are getting more and more suspicious.

I'm seriously not trying to steer the possible vigs, but trying to discuss how we can get people confirmed. If we don't try to confirm someone tomorrow will be unnecasrily hard.

I'm almost certain burhhopper is actulay scum now (despite the mods message), because he seems to have read up and has managed to post minimal info. Not helping at all ia scum trait imho. This would also mean JereIC is probably telling the truth (again the mods message). All in all, I think we can be reasonably sure either JereIC or Brushhopper is scum. We can be 100% sure at least one of them is clear.

[mepmuff]

LML is a mason for sure. It's just his being good that's not been ascertained.

I'm dounting Rubric more and more. The ringmaster, if he does die on killing a scumbag, seems pretty useless. He gets a kill and either helps scum by killing an innocent, or takes 1 member of both the good side and the bad side, witch amounts to pretty useless. I'm thinking more and more that Rubric made up the

dies if fires scum

and that our original ringmaster was just targeted by Phoebus. Continuing from here, I feel quite certain JereIC won't get hit twice if Rubric and Brushhopper both

try

to kill him.

[mepmuff]

Ok, I just thought of something and now my head hurts... JereIC: Would you know if an attempt was made on your life?

[mepmuff]

vote rubric

Now I know for sure....

[mepmuff]

Rubric: what was your result then?

[mepmuff]

Oh, and for the nightactions I suggest our vig kills stewie if he fails to save rubric. If he succeeds you can take out rubric as far as im concerned. I'll take my pick from those not involved in that night actions. Please confirm or inform us if you have other plans.

JereIC: I'd still like to know if you would know if you are targeted.

[mepmuff]

No, it's not. Lying is EXPECTED in order to protect the cop role -- it BENEFITS the village. Otherwise, cops would just out themselves at the first opportunity.

Keeping quiet is expected, lying is not. Especially when we al put our butts on the line in a mass claim. You should even have confirmation or know who's lying his ass off if you had an investigation (or was Phoebus that popular that night?). Instead, you waited while we all went through a pretty difficult day, which you could have made a lot easier if you were truthfull.

[mepmuff]

JereIC: the reason I asked was that if rubric was telling the truth about the ringmaster (and you're a good guy), you might have been Phoebus' target that night. I'm quite convinced rubric is scum, so it becomes a moot point. It would also help (if it were so) to clear you and/or brushhopper.

[mepmuff]

So, did you get a result (by PM) on phoebus?

[mepmuff]

unvote

for now. Not because you asked, but because I don't see a motive for you to make this claim if you are scum (something which will spoil my dreams for sure tonight).

Was hoping to get another vision so I would know all 3 scum. It never seriously crossed my mind that people were going to believe LML's nonsense.

What do you mean by getting another vision?

Good or bad, you're at least putting a new level of fun into this game. Much appreciated

[mepmuff]

One more (the last) time: I'm not a juggler. I'm an undercover cop using a juggling routine as a disguise. My day one actions have been in accordance with my results on d_rouge. Phoebus was the obvious choice for me, also backed up by day one evidence. Yes, those two are easy picks for a bad guy, but would a bad guy abstain from such a nice wagon as we had day 1?

Rubric: You posted this:

Was hoping to get another vision so I would know all 3 scum. It never seriously crossed my mind that people were going to believe LML's nonsense.

How would one more check show you all three scum? Also, do you know what kind of cop you are (role or good/bad)? If you know, please don't shout it out. I'd like d_rouge to tell us which one of us he wants to give out that info first. If we do have two cops we would probably have both kinds.

I've been wondering about something else. We haven't seen a doc claim, which is normally the best claim for a bad guy. Just as I was worried LML might have been another cop (one of the reasons I claimed first) the bad guys might have refrained frim claiming doc (because LML explicitely said he might be able to bring someone down with him). This speaks in favour of LML, although he manages to keep me puzzled. On the other hand, his plan to try and lynch Rubric and give Stewie a chance to save is lethal if Stewie is a good guy. This would actually require brushhopper to be a good guy to work. The biggest gamble we could take I think.

JereIC has been working good this day, as has Rubric. So those two look pretty clear to me at the moment. Stewie hasn't put up much of a fight and brushhopper has been terribly silent. Those two look to me like the most likely scum just because of that.

Regarding a motive for Rubric's coming clear: If he's a good guy, then it is about time! If he's a bad guy, the only thing I can think of is that Stewie is scum and Rubric suddenly gelt he had a really good chance to get me lynched. That is the best I can think of and it's very weak IMHO.

For the neutral viewers, I think it's safe to say:
- At least one of Rubric/mepmuff is good.
- d_rouge is good (survived a lynch, which btw doesn't make a good guy, but my investigation does (barring insanity))
- We have a very small chance of survival if we mislynch, hence I say one of brushhopper/JereIC is scum and the other one is a good guy (at least one of the is good for certain). My money is on JereIC as the good guy, because he's been most helpfull today and his claim gives a smaller chance after a mislynch than a vig-kill. Having brushhopper try to kill JereIC will clear this.
- Two more bad guys in: mepmuff/rubric/LML/Stewie, This means at least one of LML/Stewie is a bad guy, as I stated earlier that at least one of Rubric/mepmuff is a good guy. There's a small chance there's three scum in this group, as that would mean both JereIC and brushhopper are good.

In conclusion: I think we should go back to plan A. We lynch Stewie and Brushhopper may take a shot on JereIC. Me or Rubric will get killed tonight and the rest of is left with the mess tomorrow (if there will be a tomorrow).

[mepmuff]

I'm almost ready to vote. I just want the night action for brushhopper to be confirmed first. Personally I'd like him to try JereIC. If we don't lynch scum we have a small chance that can keep us in the game, but if we lynch scum that wouldn't loose us the game is the most important reason for this strategy.

So, any other thoughts on this (especially brushhopper's)?

[mepmuff]

Uhhh... no it's not. He had a vote on me for a long time.

Yeah, for a grand total of three hours

If we lynch a scum today I shouldn't target anyone, right?

If you don't want confirmation, then you shouldn't. If we don't lynch scum you might want to target LML (Given his behaviour I'm sure he's willing to bet his life on Stewie/Rubric and Brushhopper being the scum), or whoever you think is scum. Just let us know before the day ends.

[mepmuff]

wow... I was sure I'd be a goner.

vote Stewie

LML was right. He's scum indeed.

For good measures I'd like to know what brushhopper did last night and why.

[mepmuff]

And to give a run-down of how I see things:

d_rouge: cleared by investigation and mod confirmation
JereIC: cleared by lack of nightly victims (small chance of mafia not killing to let him look good. Would mean we have a vig which would make this a very dangerous plan)
LML: cleared by hammering on lynching Stewie (scum) and actually lynching Rubric (scum). (Extremely unlikely chance that he's scum sacrificing two partners in crime)

That leaves two scum amongst: Stewie, Brushhopper and myself.

Oh, and bring on the he's alive, so he must scum reasonings....

[mepmuff]

From my investigations there's nothing to indicate Stewie is anything besides a normal mafia member. Once he turns out like that you will haveve done a nice job of digging your own grave brushhopper.

[mepmuff]

Uhmm... JereIC, what part of:

vote Stewie

LML was right. He's scum indeed.

don't you understand? He's a clown, a red-nose, a gun-bearing loony.

[mepmuff]

Yeah, he gave himself away. So he and stewie are the remaining baddies.

I'll

unvote

to humor you LML, but please let on to what more you're thinking. My vote will be back on within hours (before I go to bed).

[mepmuff]

PS: Mr. Cop, only problem I have is...

Why are you still alive?

I don't get it either. d_rouge, LML and me were the only targets that would have made any sense.

vote: Stewie

Oh, brushhopper: go ahead and do your vig-thing tonight. The only way to keep your neck out of the noose tomorrow, I'd say.

[mepmuff]

vote: Brushhopper

He's scum.

Btw: Am I the only one who's worried about the approaching part in the thread title?

[mepmuff]

Well, there's 4 players left. So the approaching thing means we're actually in endgame. If we've got another nightkill coming we've lost anyway.

[mepmuff]

Well, there's 4 players left. So the approaching thing means we're actually in endgame. If we've got another nightkill coming we've lost anyway.

[mepmuff]

Yep, good call on not mentioning the night protection

dybeck: could you post all role pm's? If not, are you ok if we post them? I'm curious

scum: why did you make the claims you did? Especially the owner seemed to be not credible. Why not a doc claim for example?

I really liked this game. Well done all!

[mepmuff]

He'd left me a nice legacy of coding my name in his post...

I wish he hadn't I went through the thread over and over looking for more subliminal messages. Especially since he voted PBug in that post, who was subsequently killed....

[mepmuff]

I don't quite follow what that made you think...

The fact that PBuG died made me wonder if LML was in fact a bad guy, who was at that point telling you who the mafia was going to hit. I know it doesn't make much sense because you could have discussed it anyway, but my warped mind just wouldn't let it go

JereIC: Excellent claiming!