Mini 192 - Circus mafia - Game Over! Discuss?

[JereIC]

Good to be in, I'll post once I've read the thread.
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.
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And I'm done. I read LoudMouthLee's post as kind of joking with the OMGUS and random-vote reasoning, so Rubric seems to be barking up the wrong tree with that. He seems a little too eager at it, so he's most suspicious in my book. It's probably nothing, but it is better than a random vote methinks.

Vote: Rubric

[JereIC]

I'm not voting for mempuff...

[JereIC]

*smacks forehead* You think I'd understand a vote count when I see one...

Anyway,

It was just an arbitrary vote. LoudmouthLee was the only person who had really said anything of substance, so I commented on it when I voted.

Except that it wasn't an arbitrary vote. You provided a reason for your vote, and you're still defending it. I agree with you that LoudmouthLee's response was pretty, uhm, loud-mouthed, but that's personality more than scumminess. If it was really a random vote, then you could have put something more along the lines of "Mostly Random Vote".

[JereIC]

Rubric seems to be really trying to deflect attention away from himself. Voting for David just seems like a distraction rather than a genuine suspicion.

[JereIC]

I count four votes on him...

[JereIC]

I too am nervous of Rubric being one vote away from lynchdom.

Unvote: Rubric

I still want a claim, though.

[JereIC]

rereading the thread, the person I find most suspect is d_rogue. He's put out some odd speculation with clowns being evil and the secret vote. I just woke up, though, so what seems odd now may look Buddha-like when I've got some coffee in me. Still, if the rest of y'all want to look over his posts, see if you notice the same odd feeling reading them.

[JereIC]

ok a re-read and stiill no better but I have to say, I really dont understand why so many people cant understand why mafia would not be clowns, and why if D is a clown, why would he say something?
And I dont see any other speculation about what other group could be.

There's a lot of difference groups that could be scum. What about the M.C. and his businessmen friends? Carnies? The tent of freaks (forgive the term)? Gypsies? Loose bears on unicycles in tutus? The sudden speculation that scum are clowns is just crazy enough to be right, but it came out of no where and seems out of place for an innocent townie. If d_rouge were a scummy clown, it wouldn't be a good tactic to start randomly speculating about them, but it may not have been a tactic so much as he just couldn't think of anything better to say at the time. Sometimes, when you have all the answers to the game, it's hard to act like you don't know anything.

I'm not voting until we have another "vote record".

[JereIC]

Yeah, I'm not satisfied with d_rouge's response. I was thinking he might claim by now, but no dice. I got the impression he is squirming, and looking for the next person to vote for, without really thinking about whether they are scum or not. I don't like it, and am prepared to vote for him.

Vote: D_rouge

and with a secret vote, keep in mind the next vote could lynch him.

[JereIC]

At the risk of looking like I've got a vendetta against d_rouge, the ability to escape a lynch would be a good ability for a mafia godfather. I'm not going to persue that tomorrow if d_rouge does survive the lynch, since I think we've got better suspects, but it's something to consider in the long run.

[JereIC]

Sorry, d_rouge.

Rubric, you got anything for us?

[JereIC]

Personally I'd like to see JereIC and Stewie claim next.

Why not have brushhopper next?

I think d_rouge should claim last, because I've investigated him night one and he's clear.

I've got a sneaking suspicion he'd claim escapologist. Again.

LML claiming he can prove that puts him in a good enough position for me to agree to him claiming as one of the last persons.

Do you really have that much faith in him?

[JereIC]

Ok, I'm the fire breather and sword swallower. I have a one-shot save from a night kill.

I pick brushhopper to claim next.

[JereIC]

Mepmuff, what's your actual character (like Mr. Strongman, circus owner, etc)? I don't see why you've got to stay "under cover", considering every one else has claimed a character.

[JereIC]

Sorry for the double post. Re:LML, that really did not prove you were innocent. You could just as easily be a back-up SK, especially if your character is the "knife thrower's assisstant". Your honestly is un-scum-like, however.

My logic may be mistaken, but if this is a lynch-or-lose day, brushhopper is lying. To be lynch or lose with 7 surviving players means there's three mafia and four townies, so if we lynch a townie today, they'll kill another townie tonight, and day breaks with three mafia and two townies. However, suppose both brushhopper and I were telling the truth. If lynched any townie besides brushhopper or me, then it's possible the mafia could attack me tonight (and have their kill stopped), and brushhopper could kill a mafioso in the night. The day would break with brushhopper, myself, a third townie, and two mafia. The day could continue despite not lynching mafia the day before, and the mod in his infinite glory would have been mistaken in calling today "lynch or lose".

So that shows one of us is lying scum. I know I'm innocent, and I also know that vigilante is a safe claim for mafia in a theme game (you've got to think of a character that fits in the theme, and you've got to make up a role that credibly fits the role, so you can take your mafia character, who is likely to look either evil or murderous, and give him a killing role). What do the rest of y'all think?

FOS: brushhopper

because it's possible there is a flaw in my logic.

[JereIC]

I'm certain brushhopper is scum now. You don't even have to assume that I'm telling the truth. Suppose brushhopper were a vigilante. Then we could end today without a lynch at all, and it'd be possible that brushhopper would kill a mafioso tonight, they kill a townie, and we have dawn with two mafia and three townies. If this is a lynch-or-lose day, brushhopper is not a vigilante, so he must have lied and is scum. Besides, doesn't it seem weird we'd have the ringmaster

and

a vigilante?

Vote: brushhopper

Rubric, I think I'm one guy that does the two acts as part of a exciting danger-filled performance.

[JereIC]

LML, it's also possible you're scum, so the rubric bandwagon isn't proof. You don't have ironclad proof of Stewie either. Granted that d_rouge is a proven innocent (something Stewie forgot), but the mafia could be building the bandwagon for him slowly to avoid suspicion. There have been a few games where it's been lynch or lose, someone has carelessly voted, and the maifa sat on it for days trying to get everyone together for a flash-lynch, or adding their votes slowly enough as to avoid suspicion until the last minute. I am really surprised that Stewie has survived two days of two votes, though.

I like your list of mafia, they're also the people I've found suspect, but I think mepmuff is a lot scummier than Rubric or Stewie. Brushhopper random voted him day one, which is a fairly common mafia tactic, and he hasn't pushed brushhopper at all today (trying to get Stewie and myself to claim before brushhopper). His claim is also not credible. A juggler whose an undercover cop? That sounds utterly random; why not have an undercover cop whose in a better position to investigate. An acrobat would make a lot more sense, sense he'd be higher up in the circus and could look down to see what other people are doing. Additionally, his night results are unhelpful, either for the town and for confirming his claim. Both these points are apparent now that he's planning tonight with a vig kill, when I've shown there's no vigilante, but not planning for his own investigation!

Stewie's claim is at least credible, but we can prove brushhopper's is a lie. The mafia may be taking their time to avoid suspicion until the very end, so there's a possibility that Stewie is innocent, even if LML isn't scum.

No possibility that brushhopper is innocent, though. We gotta lynch this guy.

[JereIC]

About who I should investigate: That's largely dependant on what we do with the vig kills. And deciding the vig action before the investigation is the correct order IMHO.

What vig kills?

[JereIC]

Whoops.

I've gotta reevaluate the entire brushhopper lynch.

Unvote: brushhopper

[JereIC]

Rubric: Like I stated before: If he survives we still don't know if it's because you/Brushhopper has been lying or JereIC telling the truth. Having both of you target JereIC might be a good plan though. If JereIC survives, we know he's telling the truth with the most certainty we can get on that I think. This scenario would only be an option if we lynch scum though and would put us in another lynch or loose scenario tomorrow if JereIC is good. Any opinions? JereIC: Do you think you'll survive a double attack as well?

I would not survive two attacks at once.

I think we need to be very cautious and very careful proceeding the rest of the game. This means not using vig kills tonight. We don't have enough information to use the vig effectively at this point, and we're just as likely to kill innocent as scum at this point (or, follow mepmuff's plan to test and/or kill me for no apparent reason). If we lynch a scum today, we've got to work as carefully as possible and not do anything we can't reverse later. If we lynch a townie, though, we might as well go for a hail mary pass and have brushhopper kill whoever he finds most suspect. I doubt it will work, but we've got nothing to lose at that point. Dybeck might have something up his sleeve that could save us in the end.

As for scum, I am least happy with mepmuff's claim right now. But I've been wrong twice before now, so...

[JereIC]

Why is LML even suspect? He's claimed a mason role. Is somebody else here actually Phoebus's co-mason, and too ashamed to reveal it? Or are y'all assuming that Phoebus was a third mason with PBuG and Quailman? Or, do you think he's another serial killer?

[JereIC]

LML is a mason for sure. It's just his being good that's not been ascertained.

I'm dounting Rubric more and more. The ringmaster, if he does die on killing a scumbag, seems pretty useless. He gets a kill and either helps scum by killing an innocent, or takes 1 member of both the good side and the bad side, witch amounts to pretty useless. I'm thinking more and more that Rubric made up the

dies if fires scum

and that our original ringmaster was just targeted by Phoebus. Continuing from here, I feel quite certain JereIC won't get hit twice if Rubric and Brushhopper both

try

to kill him.

Yeah, so he'd be a serial killer at worst, right? It might be to our advantage to keep him around a while, then. Kind of like a less predictable vigilante that you have to lynch in the end. Of course, the mafia might take care of him for us anyway.

I agree with you on Rubric, though, I'm prepared to vote for him.

[JereIC]

Mepmuff, my role doesn't say anything about being notified of an attack.

Rubric, this new claim of yours is utterly amazing. First, the clarvoiyant is obviously an investigative role; c'mon, somebody who can see the future, and they're actually a plain townie or something? BS. The true mystery is why the mafia didn't just kill you that night, if you are telling the truth.

Second, cops always come out when they are pressed, or when they have mafia, because 99% of the time, there's a doc to protect them. This appears to be one of those very few games that don't have a doc, but you didn't know that at the time, so then the smart thing to have done would have been to come out, say you didn't get Ygg's results, and then ask for doc protection. Your failure to do this is absurd.

Finally, you say you lied to lay a trap for scum. So, when this trap was sprung and mepmuff claimed a cop, why didn't you just come out and say Ygg was actually a cop, and you seriously doubted the presense of two cops? You've only changed your story now that you're in danger, not when mepmuff was starting to slide out of the lynch.

I'm not voting yet, because I'm really suspicious about how quickly you got two (three?) votes right there. I also am going to wait and see if you do have an explanation. Scumming under the influence, maybe, or that you knew something that made you behave the way you did. Short of something amazing, however, I think we're about to lynch you soon.

[JereIC]

Mepmuff, my role doesn't say anything about being notified of an attack.

Rubric, this new claim of yours is utterly amazing. First, the clarvoiyant is obviously an investigative role; c'mon, somebody who can see the future, and they're actually a plain townie or something? BS. The true mystery is why the mafia didn't just kill you that night, if you are telling the truth.

Second, cops always come out when they are pressed, or when they have mafia, because 99% of the time, there's a doc to protect them. This appears to be one of those very few games that don't have a doc, but you didn't know that at the time, so then the smart thing to have done would have been to come out, say you didn't get Ygg's results, and then ask for doc protection. Your failure to do this is absurd.

Finally, you say you lied to lay a trap for scum. So, when this trap was sprung and mepmuff claimed a cop, why didn't you just come out and say Ygg was actually a cop, and you seriously doubted the presense of two cops? You've only changed your story now that you're in danger, not when mepmuff was starting to slide out of the lynch.

I'm not voting yet, because I'm really suspicious about how quickly you got two (three?) votes right there. I also am going to wait and see if you do have an explanation. Scumming under the influence, maybe, or that you knew something that made you behave the way you did. Short of something amazing, however, I think we're about to lynch you soon.

[JereIC]

Rubric, when I was saying it was obvious that clarvoyant is an investigative role, I mean there was no need to lie by denying it. It's like saying "I'm a detective" and then expecting the mob to think you aren't a cop. Basically, you claim you lied to hide your identity, but that is not effective, so I don't buy it.

Any way, getting caught in your own web of lies is die-scum-die level incrimination. I'd follow through, but I think it's fair to let d_rouge get his say in first. D_rouge, what do you think, and how was Paris?

[JereIC]

Hi guys, I just came back. Paris was beautiful as always.

I'm very tempted to lynch Rubric right now, but I think there's a better way. Obviously one of Mepmuff and Rubric is lying, so we'll just have them check each other tonight and we'll have a scum for tomorrow's lynch.

For today I still think Stewie is the best bet.

Won't they just both say they investigated the other, and found the other to be scum? For the "kill the survivor" strategy, mafia could very easily not kill either, to deny us information (especially if they each claim to check the other for scumminess, with aforementioned results).

Rubric, my only disbelief is your original claim. I would not be surprised if the clarvoyant is an honest to goodness cop, but it's possible we have two cops (as you suggested), or that mepmuff is also scum, and is sacrificing you to look innocent. But, just like you now confess you don't know exactly what the ringmaster did, I am convinced you don't know exactly what the clarvoyant did because you aren't a replacement role at all. You're mafia.

Vote: Rubric

[JereIC]

Actually, I'm still nervous about voting Rubric yet. Anyone else have thoughts?

Unvote: Rubric

P.S. Mepmuff unvoted in post 285, in case you didn't see it.

[JereIC]

Rereading the thread, and I just plain don't find anything that would make Rubric look more innocent. Now, I have seen his role before (a replacement that takes over the first person who dies), but Rubric has played in such a bizzare way that I don't believe him anymore.

Btw, there are earlier games with pro- and anti-town masons. Here's two:

Minivintational 4
Mini 143 New York City

[JereIC]

Btw, there are earlier games with pro- and anti-town masons. Here's two:

Can you point out exactly where the masons are? I can't find even a normal mason.

In Minivational 4, the Serial Killer, Cop, and Mafia Godfather were part of a mason group, and none of them were told the others' roles.

In New York City Mafia, the serial killer and a otherwise regular townie formed an investigative mason group.

[JereIC]

Vote: Rubric

This is the first time mepmuff has expressed a willingness to vote. I'm still very suspicious of mepmuff, and anyone he wants to lynch is somebody I don't. I say we lynch the serial liar instead.

[JereIC]

Vote: Rubric

This is the first time mepmuff has expressed a willingness to vote.

Uhhh... no it's not. He had a vote on me for a long time. It's part of the reason for LML's argument that it "proves" I am scum.

I forgot about that. I guess it was his rapid support of the vote that caught me. Still voting for you.

The whole idea that you should lynch the "liar" is just some nicely executed spin control by LML. I have to hand it to him -- this will be a fine victory.

He's not even voting for you now.

[JereIC]

If you two were scum*, that would have been a speed-lynch.

*i.e., if Rubric were actually innocent.

[JereIC]

Mepmuff, don't you have results for us today?

[JereIC]

Also,

FOS: Stewie

, but mepmuff should answer first.

[JereIC]

Btw: Am I the only one who's worried about the approaching part in the thread title?

Yeah, I'm worried too, but unless you want to reveal you're actually scum, and you exposed Stewie to gain credibility with LML and me,

and

that mafia goons are immune from night kills (thus making Brushhopper's role useless, yet his post yesterday credible), I think we're just gonna have to cross that bridge when we get to it.

Or, LML, you wouldn't happen to be a sleeper SK?

Vote: brushhopper

[JereIC]

Yeah town!

As convincing as my claim was, I don't think it helped us at all. I did stymie the mafia once, where I would have been killed if I had claimed honest, but otherwise we would have won if I had told the truth. It was LML's amazing mafia-hunting that won the game.

For night choices, I went:
Night two: Rubric, because I actually believed he was telling the truth. I got suspicious when he wasn't attacked that night
Night three: d_rouge, figuring mafia would go after the confirmed townie
Night four: mepmuff, for this reason I wrote to dybeck:

I'll protect mepmuff tonight. If BH is scum, he might go after d_rouge instead, but he's 99% screwed anyway. If d_rouge or LML is scum, however, then when mepmuff investigates BH he'll find BH is innocent, and our attention will turn to the other two (and to me, although I can explain last night in my claim). Or, it would, if he survived the night. By killing mepmuff, they'd get an extra day, which would give them a chance to win. If there's an SK who's been hiding all along, he would attack mepmuff, suspecting him to be a cop or scum. Staying hidden any longer is suicidal. Either way, he's 99% screwed. If mepmuff is a mafioso, well, he pretty much deserves to win.

So, if LML had turned out to be a sleeping SK, or d_rouge some sort of weird back-up godfather, maybe lying would have saved the day. Otherwise, I'm just lucky that brushhopper wasn't a real vigilante.

[JereIC]

Yeah town!

As convincing as my claim was, I don't think it helped us at all. I did stymie the mafia once, where I would have been killed if I had claimed honest, but otherwise we would have won if I had told the truth. It was LML's amazing mafia-hunting that won the game.

For night choices, I went:
Night two: Rubric, because I actually believed he was telling the truth. I got suspicious when he wasn't attacked that night
Night three: d_rouge, figuring mafia would go after the confirmed townie
Night four: mepmuff, for this reason I wrote to dybeck:

I'll protect mepmuff tonight. If BH is scum, he might go after d_rouge instead, but he's 99% screwed anyway. If d_rouge or LML is scum, however, then when mepmuff investigates BH he'll find BH is innocent, and our attention will turn to the other two (and to me, although I can explain last night in my claim). Or, it would, if he survived the night. By killing mepmuff, they'd get an extra day, which would give them a chance to win. If there's an SK who's been hiding all along, he would attack mepmuff, suspecting him to be a cop or scum. Staying hidden any longer is suicidal. Either way, he's 99% screwed. If mepmuff is a mafioso, well, he pretty much deserves to win.

So, if LML had turned out to be a sleeping SK, or d_rouge some sort of weird back-up godfather, maybe lying would have saved the day. Otherwise, I'm just lucky that brushhopper wasn't a real vigilante.

Hope this isn't a double-post...

[JereIC]

I had to go and jynx it, didn't I?

[JereIC]

Yeah, it is worth sharing:

Weird, I thought I targetted drouge tonight. With no docs, he should be dead.

Hell yeah, Stewie! You just got burned by Doctor JereIC's Pants of Fire! Unless his pants were on fire as well when he wrote that...

*prays he doesn't get branded "Dr. Pants on Fire"*