Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)

[Hoopla]

confarm..

hi cruelty.

[Hoopla]

Sotty, that was so predictable. I'm a little disappointed.

Vote: Budja

[Hoopla]

vote budja

let's try and lynch him before he can post again. it'd be rather funny. (+ he's scum)

Is dat sum bandwagoning I smell?

Why do three votes make a bandwagon, and not two? From the tone of your post, it seems you have an anti-bandwagoning stance - can you clarify your position for me?

[Hoopla]

At this point in the game, there were two votes already placed - I find it highly unusual that the next four votes

all

hit different targets.

Case solved. Time to lynch budja!

CHOO CHOO

Vote: Budja

vote: cathart

omgus

Lol SpyreX

Vote: DisgruntledSean

I prefer my friends to be happy!

Vote: IcemanE

I'm sick of winter.

The last two votes I am most suspicious of, if only because they are newer players who might be a bit more sensitive to bandwagoning. Were they truly random? I doubt it - there are better odds of one of them hitting an already voted player if they voted randomly. This implies to me they may be wanting to avoid attention early on and follow site culture, which is generally an indication of newness or a weak scumtell.

~~

Then suddenly, the game spins on it's head and small wagons start forming.

Sotty, that was so predictable. I'm a little disappointed.

Vote: Budja

vote budja

let's try and lynch him before he can post again. it'd be rather funny. (+ he's scum)

Here is the first event, which seems mostly jokey and lighthearted. This is hard to analyse, due the playstyles of myself and SpyreX being open to wagoning, and Riddick seeming the same way. This thought is proven true, by how quickly it falls apart when more genuine reasoning starts surfacing. Riddick and sidekick come into the spotlight now;

Vote: Riddick

i don't know if you're bandwagoning exactly,
but a bit eager to lynch

Weak reasoning - a bit of a stretch to classify as eager for a lynch. Sean, is this your first mafia game here? Have you played anywhere else?

Eh I don't like Riddick echoing hoopla and following Spy. Sure it's only page two but a little original thought would be nice.

Unvote, Vote: Riddick

This vote is sound, and is a valid point. Although Riddick's activity and attempts to push the game forward seem more town than anything.

~~

The sidekick wagon, which has grown at the same time as Riddick's is a lot weaker in my opinion. It all stemmed from this question;

If you found something you thought was actually WORTH noting as a scum manuever, why would you leave your vote on a random?

Unvote, Vote: Sidekick

I think it's debatable that Sidekick even found something scummy - she pointed something;

vote budja

let's try and lynch him before he can post again. it'd be rather funny. (+ he's scum)

Is dat sum bandwagoning I smell?

This was not insisted as scummy, although it likely had that air about it. Perhaps she did find it scummy, then would have felt like a hypocrite jumping on a bandwagon to support her views.

Riddick then parrots SpyreX;

A better question is:

If you found something you thought was actually WORTH noting as a scum manuever, why would you leave your vote on a random?

Unvote, Vote: Sidekick

you're right that IS a good question.

unvote vote sidekick

If you found something you thought was actually WORTH noting as a scum manuever, why would you leave your vote on a random?

scum tell #1.

unvote, vote Sidekick

Riddick just seems to be following SpyreX's HYPER CERTAIN style.

Budja does too, which makes me uneasy. I don't see him as the type to commit to such an early degree of certainty. I also don't see a wagon like this spawning from merely one (unsubstanciated) point, developing on scum rather than town. My early guess is one of these three is scum.

Sidekick and Sotty are probably town.

[Hoopla]

SpyreX, I think your vote is better served on Budja. Help?

[Hoopla]

I'm a little sad/wroth you did that before we could see waht Sidekick said, fyi.

Ah, yes. I got a bit carried away.

[Hoopla]

The town gets nowhere without people overtrying and overanalysing things early on! They're always a long-shot, but it is information to work with, and better than random voting. I'm hoping Day 1 doesn't go any longer than 200 posts - I feel that is probably optimum for a mini normal.

[Hoopla]

Ignoring the fact that it's vaguely insulting that you claim you thought you could somehow create a stealth wagon without anybody noticing, I'm just not convinced that a) this isn't a retroactive justification and b) that even if you're genuine, it's a viable strategy. There's so many variables which would have to fall in line for this plan to work that to me, it just smells like a contrived explanation for what was initially little more than an oddity, but by virtue of the above quote has now turned into possibly the most significant moment of the game thus far. Far eclipsing Spyrex's strange sum/scum misread.

Incidentally, the concept of a stealth jack-in-the-box wagon just seems horribly devious and more in-line with scum thinking to me. I guess it's not inherently scummy to want to pressure someone, but the

type

of thinking here just doesn't really seem pro-town to me. That said, null tell I guess, you might just be a villainous person.

Hahaha stealth wagons - that's brilliant. Not only would you have to fool Budja into not knowing how many people were voting him, you'd also have to hope nobody else on the wagon notices too, because I'm sure there'd be one or two nervous worry-ers in the group.

I don't think it's a scum motivated tactic though.

[Hoopla]

Echoing the comments on DisgruntledSean's posts. There seems to be a complete change from 102 to 110. In 102, he's worried about IcemanE getting too many votes, but in 110 he votes for him anyway. In 102, he'd like to wait until IcemanE returns with more content (or is replaced), but in 110 he appears to be considering the benefits of lynching potential-scum IcemanE without hearing further from him.

Unvote Vote: DistruntledSean

Jah, good posting. I don't see much motivation, or explaination for the Iceman target too - it's a whole lot of filler, with little content behind it. And of the little content posted, it's fairly contradictory. Sorry Budja, but you'll have to wait.

Unvote, vote: DisgruntledSean

[Hoopla]

Hoopla - a nice long day one is ideal because you get plenty to reflect on in later days.

WRONG! Nobody reads the first day (enough) if it becomes too lengthy - every player has a limit when it comes to the amount of information they can analyse in an accurate, productive manner. Know what happens when the day drags on for 500+ posts? People resort to iso-reads Day 2 which is a ridiculous method for scumhunting, and makes you see things you want to see, rather than context. Some people don't even do this, and will just resort to their Day 1 reads, without factoring in the new alignment information.

Seriously, ~200 posts is optimum for the first day. As far as lynching scum goes, the Day 1 lynch is very close to random (quite possibly worse than random). There is no good point arguing for 20 pages on Day 1 if people won't read them the next day, and arguing for these extra pages won't dramatically improve our Day 1 lynch chances.

Lets push something through.

[Hoopla]

My apologies
I got my foot ran over by a car.

How did that happen?

[Hoopla]

What a wanker, you should have got his license plate number and tracked him down. Then done inappropriate things to his house and car.

[Hoopla]

I'm liking these competing wagons. Iceman not voting Sean is probably pro-town points for Ice.

Cruelty and Fongoid - are you opposed to either of these wagons? Why are your current votes better than these two? Would you like to present a nice, concise case on each of your suspects before I call this a two-horse race?

[Hoopla]

Damnit hoopla you keep ruining experiments before they can come to fruition!!!

(I was HOPING ice would come jump in on Sean but nooo)

I'm too observant for my own good. Next time, use the '' emoticon during a live experiment, and I will filter my thoughts to try and avoid ruining anything.

[Hoopla]

That said:

What do you think about this latest Sidekick / Riddick exchange and the ebb-flow in Sidekick's play?

My guess is town/town - Riddick is starting to develop into a stronger town read. I'm not sure if it's a personality trait, but I really believe in the 'newer players are less active as scum' tell, mostly because they're still grasping the subtleties of the game. I think Riddick has an almost innocent curiousity, with little filter between brain and fingers, something which would be stifled a lot more with the knowledge of being scum. We have a quite a few newer players here, and of them, he's the one I wouldn't lynch.

I speculated early about Sidekick town, but she hasn't done anything recently besides be hit by cars. I'm not seeing a case on her outside a mild dose of active-lurking, but she needs to pick up her game soon though, otherwise her reasons for voting Sean will start mirroring her play.

[Hoopla]

Riddick - have you played mafia on other sites before, or under different accounts?

[Hoopla]

Riddick - have you played mafia on other sites before, or under different accounts?

yes to both.

Hmm, do you want to share your other identities?

[Hoopla]

THIS is what I was waiting for? Hmmmpph

6.5/10

That's awfully generous of you.

@hoopla: does the knowledge that riddick's played under an alt. change how you interpret him?

Still feels town - I have no desire to lynch from the limited pool of regularly active players, also.

[Hoopla]

Ugh... Don't like that vote.

Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?

Also:

It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.

Very much this.

What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?

It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.

[Hoopla]

Mod:

Please prod TeWuicah and Fongoid - and maybe give us a status update on Iceman?

I'm really disliking all this lurking so close to deadline.

[Hoopla]

ATTN EVERYONE:

Get in here. We have very little time until deadline, and we haven't even got a claim yet. I don't want to be in a position where a claim from Sean or Iceman doesn't happen until the last minute, and we're forced to lynch that player with limited speculation, or having to scramble for the other option (that probably won't have time to claim).

The way that most of the players are coasting on their suspicions of these two, it's starting to make me doubt the odds of us having scum pinned - contrary to SpyreX's assertion.

So, since the majority of this town is on Sean or Iceman, I want everyone in their next post to say whether they are open to switching - how strong their suspicion of each candidate is, so we can come to some kind of consensus of who should claim. Lets go!

~~

Mod:

In your latest votecount Iceman should have 5 votes, not 6.

Fixed, thanks

[Hoopla]

ATTN EVERYONE:

So, since the majority of this town is on Sean or Iceman, I want everyone in their next post to say whether they are open to switching - how strong their suspicion of each candidate is, so we can come to some kind of consensus of who should claim. Lets go!

I'll answer my own question while I wait for all of you;

Prepared to switch to Iceman, although have a slight preference for Sean (especially if we get a replacement for Ice). Sean's play fits quite nicely with newb-scum trying to get away with active lurking and low content posts. He'd be my preference for claiming, but I'm not as confident as Riddick is with his reads.

[Hoopla]

Hey don, how are you?

[Hoopla]

very well, thank you. i am also caught up.

cruelty's 222 seals the deal for me. i would rather lynch cruelty or fongoid, but ds is quite possibly their scum partner. i don't see why they would avoid two town wagons on day 1.

so are we waiting for another replacement, is there enough support for fongoid/cruelty, or do i place ds at L-1?

i will now take questions...

I don't understand the suspicion behind post 222 - why is that exactly?

At this stage, even though we've been granted an extension, Fongoid probably won't have enough support for a lynch - cruelty even less, I'd say. In my opinion, we need a lynch to happen soon, and it should probably be Sean (just) going by the answers we've got in so far.

I'm not fazed if you put him to L-1 - because your support is enough to warrant a claim from Sean, in fact I will formally request it;

Sean, claim in your next post.

If anyone disagrees, you have until Sean gets here to challenge this decision.

[Hoopla]

i think sean just put himself at L-1, though unintentionally. nobody hammer please.

LOL. Imagine if that was the hammer, that would be hilarious.

Unvote

, while I think this over.

[Hoopla]

Yeah, I'm also in agreeance that Sean's claim doesn't seem like a newbie-fakeclaim at all. I'm willing to let him live, even if the most we get out of it is him eating the night kill.

Who to go after now? Don has really lit up the Iceman slot with the townie goodness, and it suits my theory that both the major D1 wagons were town. Do we have enough time to power a bandwagon through on someone else though? Cruelty and Snow White seem like the only other plausible candidates who could generate enough support. I'd prefer cruelty though, so here you go Don;

Vote: cruelty

[Hoopla]

Mod:

What happens if we don't decide on a lynch before deadline? Is it automatically a no-lynch, or highest votes at the time gets lynched?

[Hoopla]

60 hours to go, shitshitshit, we need to do something guys.

Sean isn't a lynch choice any more, so those voting him need to swap to someone else

immediately

.

I'm usually quite pessimistic about towns that have consigned themselves to scrambling for lynches, but we don't have any other choice. Those lurking in the 60 hours will feel my wrath, and those posting without voting someone else and explaining their current suspicions they're open to lynching, will feel even more of my wrath. And I won't wear gloves.

Open to lynching:

Cruelty, Snow White, Budja

Not Open to lynching:

DisgrustledSean, don_johnson, Sotty7, Riddick

Only if necessary:

Sidekick, WingsOWisdom, TeWuicah, SpyreX

[Hoopla]

Can you explain why you're voting me please?

It wasn't a strong vote, I freely admit this- mostly because the two prime suspects of the town suddenly swung town. It was mostly a gut call, but in an attempt to quantify it, it was because it was something that a couple of my town reads were open to, and advocating which gave me a bit more confidence. Maybe you just have a scummy vibe you emit that attracts fencesitters like me?

I get the feeling you'll be safe for now anyway. Snow White has claimed a protection role?

~~

Well, that really only leaves Sidekick with a decent amount of support, and isn't a claimed beneficial role;

Unvote, vote: Sidekick

[Hoopla]

I find it a little hard to believe we zeroed in on two important town prs day 1..

*shrug*

It happens sometimes. Remember Mini 909 - Mindgamer was wagoned to L-1 first on D1 and claimed a PR, then we lynched Quagmire instead who was a CPR Doctor. Then the first scum kill was a tracker. And there was a lot of vanilla in that set-up too.

If one is lying, who do you think it is?

[Hoopla]

Good morning everyone!

First on today's agenda needs to be result claims from Snow and Sean. Also, I think Snow needs to full claim her role today beyond a 'protection' ability.

[Hoopla]

And result claims? Hoopla. I dont get results i just go about my nightly nightwork. I am not told as to whether my protection is successful or not.
Certainly ill full claim provided there is enough support behind me full claiming.

See, there are other roles that can catch you/prove you innocent, such as role-cops, trackers and watchers for instance, and that's just the beginning of the list. So claiming targets is still necessary - you're not going to get away with claiming nothing.

A protection softclaim with no claimed targets, that nobody knows the full extent of is ZERO use to the town, when it is probably only your claim yesterday that saved you. Although, if we had a little bit more time and weren't scrambling, it might have been worth considering you then for this exact scenario today. I'd prefer it if you just claimed now while you're online, rather than just delaying the inevitable, because I doubt anyone is going to want you to keep secrets.

[Hoopla]

Iso9. M.A.C.H.O. down the side.

You serious? You can't lay breadcrumbs after you've been asked to role claim.

Haha, why didn't you do this earlier Snow, like when you were trying to breadcrumb yesterday?

~~

We need Sean's results before we do anything else IMO. Macho Doctor does kind of fit with Gunsmith though, in the sense they're both relatively abstract roles.

[Hoopla]

...
I, too, am a macho doc. Which made no sense without the existence of another protective role. SW's claming doc, and macho specifically, makes me buy it.

Hey, who did you protect?

This is a good result for town, I think, as Snow and Spyre have essentially crossconfirmed each other, or are scum together putting all their eggs in one basket, which seems very unlikely from the way it has unfolded. The role is way too uncommon for Snow to pick it out of the bag and be fortunate enough to have Spyre there to confirm her. The only other possibility I can think of is Spyre taking advantage of a roleclaim that he can get a solid fakeclaim in on, but again, this is also very unlikely, because he wouldn't know if there are other doc roles to contradict him.

I'm quite content believing both of Snow/Spyre - it seems like a probable set-up quirk (I actually kind of like it, it's clever).

[Hoopla]

SW

I didn't see the crumb so I assumed NORMAL doc and well.

Oh yeah, duh!

On to business;

Vote: Budja

[Hoopla]

I am going to assume that each mini normal game, except ones with Serial Killers, have three scum bags in them. If that is the case, if all three scum bags are powerless goons, is it safe to assume that the town consists of vanillas? If a goon army can safely assume that they are facing a vanilla team, wouldn't there be added incentive for the scum bags to fake claim knowing that they won't get counter-claimed?

I guess what I am trying to get at is can we completely trust Spy, SW's, and DS's PR claims right now?

If you want to play the balance game, here is a frequency of the commonly used 12 player closed set-ups. As it's likely we have two doctors, it's hard to know if we have another killing faction in the game before a night happens with two kills, but I give it better than even odds we're playing in a 3:9 set-up. The thing that makes me pause is the gunsmith role, which could be used in conjunction with an SK to give it investigation immunity - but that seems like a longshot.

Unless it has been confirmed beyond doubt, and there are no realistic sinister explanations for a player to claim a certain role, you can never trust a role claim. The fact is though, Snow White claimed a protection role on Day 1, and if she was scum, this would have been a huge risk not knowing if there is a doctor in the game. Many games have doctors, which makes it tough to believe Snow would fakeclaim something like that. Then having it confirmed by SpyreX adds credibility to the claims.

Gunsmith sort of fits with Macho Doctors, as they're relatively obscure but not overly powerful roles. And when you consider the claim came from a newbie fresh to the site, it seems way more likely it is his role, rather than a fakeclaim. No offense to Sean, but he has been quite inept so far, that I doubt he has the ability to make such a good fakeclaim first game in.

The annoying thing is, it can also be a viable scum tactic to leave claimed PR's alive (especially doctors) to incriminate them for mislynches. But if all these claims are true, it makes it increasingly more difficult for scum to play this game due to it being potentially damaging if they don't get rid of them before endgame. This could be easily thwarted by a possible Mafia Roleblocker, or even a mafia role that comes up without a gun (maybe a Priest) - I think your assumption of a goon army isn't reasonable, as it's quite common these days for a scumteam to have another power other than their group kill.

~~

I guess to answer your question directly - there is no reason to disbelieve them now, because the claims make sense, fit together nicely, and will potentially soak up NK's meaning we don't have to consider lynching them. I think it's likelier scum are in the remaining pool of candidates, which is where we should be lynching, because it's improved odds of scum, and doesn't carry the risk of getting rid of potential town power.

[Hoopla]

that hurts hoopla
i went into this blind, don't have time for the hours and hours of research to be up to speed at the moment

Sorry, didn't mean to be offensive. If anything, being so easy to read will help improve the town's chances of winning!

Hug?

[Hoopla]

Budja, why claim rather than try and defend yourself, or actually scumhunt?

I don't see how this information is more beneficial to town than scum, as you've now outed Cuetlachtli as probably powerless.

Also, I think I'd be open to massclaim talks seeing as most of our powerroles are out in the open anyway. We may as well box scum into fakeclaims early to minimise their options. Thoughts?

[Hoopla]

Busdrivers are uncommon in Mini's, but given this set-up I think it's possible but still a longshot. Roleblocker is possible (but why no Sean block?) - scum would need some power to counter what the town has. But if there is a Mafia Godfather/Priest, that could be adequate power against a gunsmith, which is by far the most useful of all the roles so far.

I think the Godfather type role is more likely, otherwise I would have expected scum to block Sean, unless they're using him to out potential powerroles.

[Hoopla]

I think I believe Budja's claim - if it's fake he's essentially guessing what someone's role is. That could easily catch him out if he guessed wrong. I suppose he had decent odds of hitting a vanilla if all the other PR claims are true.

While I'm at it;

Unvote, vote: WingsOWisdom

[Hoopla]

I could see shying away from Sean if you thought there was a tracker or watcher. Those would have been instant death.

And considering Snow was talking about protecting him too. This makes me more confident that scum don't have an RB, but maybe a GF/Priest instead to be immune from investigations.

[Hoopla]

Why is Cue town again SpyreX?

[Hoopla]

380.

Really give that one a read and try to sink into the thought processes behind it. I instinctively went "vanilla town or really pro coy scum"

It feels town, but I think you're overrelying on the information there in that post.

[Hoopla]

I wouldn't save him from the wolves but its definitely more than enough to push him to the happy side for the day.

I'm surprised you haven't asked why I'm so confident about you.

I think the more compelling evidence is the claim he didn't go anywhere last night which partially clears him from being mafia.

That one isn't in doubt to me - but go on, tell me anyway.

[Hoopla]

No, I think you'll find WingsOWisdom is going next. Wings, when you're ready.

[Hoopla]

I'm fine with that although I'd love the rationale.

I am a truthseeker (24).

[Hoopla]

It's a breadcrumb so I can't alter my role based on the next two following claims, which eliminates the scum motivation to want to claim

after

everyone else.

[Hoopla]

This isn't about you, therefore what you actually are isn't relevant. What Hoopla thinks you are is.


Hoopla says it's unlikely you'd claim macho doc because you were unaware of other doc roles (therefore you're not taking advantage of a roleclaim to fakeclaim, and must be town).

You say you thought SW was normal doc (which in my mind means the likelihood of there being other protective roles = close enough to zero to be negligible.



If you thought SW was normal doc, then there's every likelihood you're taking advantage of her claim (because why would there be other docs?) to support your fakeclaim (as Hoopla is worried about). Whether you are or not is irrelevant (to this particular point), the fact that she hasn't pursued it is what concerns me.

Why is my view of SpyreX relevant if you think what he is irrelevant? Am I missing something here?

I'll run through the logic of why SpyreX's claim is probably true;

- Snow claims a protection role late on Day 1
- SpyreX derails that wagon by claiming he has reason to believe the claim is true.
- Next day Snow claims Macho doctor, which is when SpyreX comes out too.
- For SpyreX to be taking advantage of Snow's claim, the breadcrumb from yesterday needs to be fabricated, which I doubt he would have committed himself to if scum.
- Macho Doctor implies that there must be some other protection role out there. What is the point in having a doctor that can't be protected, if there is nobody else to protect her?
- The way SpyreX and Snow's claims match up make sense, espcially since nobody else has claimed a protection role.

If he assumed normal doc, then it's reasonable (per your above quote) to suspect his claim isn't legit (as why would town have more than one normal doc?). Seems odd to me that you let this slide.

I'm not actually that suspicious of Spyrex, I'm not a huge fan of his letting Hoopla slide for something that in my eyes isn't really significant at all (I'd consider her pushing Budja's wagon over a confirmed townie to be less noteworthy than her almost complete lack of offence throughout the entire game) but I think the villain in this weird dynamic the two of them have got going on is Hoopla.

I also think the claim thing is a little odd but I guess we'll see what happens there. I don't really see the point of breadcrumbing when there's only two players left to claim (and statistically I'd expect them to likely be vt given we've had 3 power roles + one [Hoopla] presumed).

THIS IS A RIDICULOUS REASON TO SUSPECT ME.

- You're suspicious of

me

because I didn't pick up on a detail that you deem irrelevant?
- You're suspicious of

me

because someone you're not suspicious of is trying to clear me?
- I am acknowledging the outside chance of a clever gambit, but it doesn't make sense (see top of post).

The breadcrumb was because I wanted all the claims out before I claimed. This breadcrumb enables me to do it, because it has locked me into a claim, so I can't alter my claimed role based on the other claims.

I am an FBI Agent. And I think we're playing in a 2:1:9 or 3:1:8 set-up. Here is my breadcrumb explained;

Truthseeker (24) = the first returned result on a google search of 'my role is fbi agent'

[Hoopla]

As for my result last night, it was a toss up between investigating Budja or Sotty7. I expected a potential SK to play under the radar a bit, which fell in line with both those player's play who I expected to be a bit more vocal.

I ended up choosing Sotty, who isn't an SK.

[Hoopla]

If Budja is lying there exists (probably him) a rolecop - thats the only one that makes sense.

Of course these roles are all "outside the norm"ish soo.

Lemme think about it and try to devise a plan tomorrow/Monday. Input is awesome though.

I think I have a good plan.

Give me a couple of hours to find any loopholes/better options and I will share.

[Hoopla]

To start with, this is unfamiliar territory for me, and probably everyone else here. I have never seen a massclaim Day 2 in a Mini Normal, and to be honest, have never even considered a massclaim this early in a normal game, but suffice to say this game will have a greater emphasis on the logic puzzle aspect, which I know some players may not have had as much experience in.

But I encourage everyone to do their best to think through the range of possibilities and the consequences of actions proposed, because one or two people deciding the town's collective actions is a BAD idea. Any isolation of power is susceptible to error in judgement, or the possiblility of scum being in control. You would never let one person choose the day's lynch, so we musn't decide on a course of action for today/tonight without equally interactive discussion and consensus.

Things we need to sort out:

(a starting point for those unsure what to do now)

1) Do we have reason to disbelieve any of the claims so far? Which claims are more likely to be truthful, and where is scum likely to be?
2) What set-up are we probably playing in? Our lynch/nightactions should be tailored to benefit us in the scenario we deem most likely, yet still not be too damaging if we are wrong about the set-up we are in.
3) Who today's lynch should be (if any)?
4) What all our night actions should be (if we deem coordinating to be a beneficial idea)?

~~

It is hard to know where to start when attempting to exploit role combinations, especially when there is a chance some of them aren't true. So what do we do? Because in this situation, attempting to account for every hypothetical scenario where certain roles might be lying, or hidden scum roles potentially coming into play creates chaos too hard to predict. Answer: We make assumptions to simplify the chaos.

Normally this would be a potentially fatal thing to do - discounting outside chances to produce a simpler equation. But we are not in lylo, so the worst punishment for assuming wrong today, is producing results unexpected to what we set out to achieve, which can be refined tomorrow (or maybe the next day). I'm open to other theories on the nature of such assumptions, and what we should be trying to achieve with our lynch/nightactions, but trying to include unlikely scenarios into considerations makes the equation so hard to digest.

Here is my first assumption:

Snow White and SpyreX are town.

Justification: Snow wouldn't claim Doctor as scum D1, as it is a highrisk of drawing a counterclaim. SpyreX not counterclaiming D1 (and believing Snow) implies that he genuinely thought another doctor was in the set-up which reflects well on him. SpyreX claiming Macho Doctor means Snow cannot be scum, unless she is scum with SpyreX, as claiming Macho Doctor, then getting lucky and having a town variant confirming her is so unlikely. Snow/SpyreX is definitely not worth considering at the moment, and if on the outside chance it is true, it has a good chance of being discovered by accident through our nightactions.

Here is my second assumption:

DisgruntledSean is town.

Justification: He is a first game newbie, who doesn't seem to fully understand what scumhunting means, let alone what makes a good fakeclaim. How likely is it that he had the prowess to fabricate this? Something else I can reveal now that makes me believe him, is based on my role. My gun. Gunsmith set-ups often have at least one town gunowner to dillute the results of the Gunsmith's investigation, and occasionally one mafia without a gun (although that is unlikely if there is an SK in the set-up, who is the one who probably won't have a gun).

Here is my third assumption:

There is an SK in the game.

This one is less conclusive, and more open to debate. Points against include only one NK on N1, a diminishing field of potential candidates to find this alleged SK, or a crafty set-up design, aimed to mislead me and the town, with an FBI Agent/no SK. Although, I (and cruelty) recently played in a game with this scenario, it isn't common enough overall for mods to use linked roles (nurse, miller etc.) without their counterparts. Or at least not common enough to make it likelier than there being an SK overall. I think an SK fits too well with the gunsmith for this not to be a reasonable assumption. This assumption also has little to no punishment for being wrong too, as the list of possible SK suspects is quite small;

Budja

- Claimed Motion Detector

WingsOWisdom

- Possible

cruelty

- Possible

DisgruntledSean

- Claimed Gunsmith

SpyreX

- Claimed Macho Doc

Sotty

- Not possible

Hoopla

- Not possible

Snow White

- Claimed Macho Doc

Cuetlachtli

- Cleared by Budja (unless Cue deliberately no-killed N1)

don_johnson

- Possible

Wings and cruelty seem like the most likely picks for SK. I can't see any of the claimed powerroles lying (or at least lying to be an SK), as they are so well entwined. Budja maybe, but Motion Detector seems like a very shorttem claim, especially if mafia is likely to be amongst the VT's. DJ is also possible, but I think he is less likely than cruelty and Wings - this is more a gut read on Ice's and DJ's individual play though. I'm finding it hard to quantify, but if anyone is really that curious I can try.

Here is my fourth assumption:

The set-up we are most likely playing in is 3:1:8.

This one is also open to debate. Here is a collection of data I did recently that might be helpful to those less familiar with balance of a Mini Normal game. This assumption is based on me believing the powerrole claims are true, which fits balance-wise with a 3:1:8 better than a 2:1:9 - so here is what we have based on said beliefs;

3 Mafia (unknown power)

1 SK (potential unknown extra power)

2 Macho Doctors
1 FBI Agent
1 Gunsmith
1 Motion Detector
3 Vanilla Townies (2 currently dead)

Overall, this seems like a fair and balanced set-up, but if this is true, it leaves us in an intriguing situation, as we have cruelty, Wings, Sotty, Cue, Don all claiming vanilla. Here's something I doubt though: Every scum would fakeclaim vanilla, especially with a gunsmith, and especially with a motion detector.

This makes me think some of our power must be lying (or I am wrong about the set-up), but either way,

at least

one or two of the VT's must be scum.

Of the power that is most likely lying, I think it is Budja, because I believe the Macho Doctors, and I believe the Gunsmith. Motion Detector could potentially be a valuable scum role to catch town power, but I would like some debate from everyone about the set-up we are in, and which powerroles are likely lying.

My proposed plan:

- We lynch from the pool of claimed VT's
- Budja motion detects one of the remaining VT's at random
- Sean investigates one of the remaining VT's at random
- Snow protects Sean
- I don't know if I deserve protection as I am not confirmed. SpyreX should protect who he believes more/deems most valuable out of myself/Budja. This topic is up for discussion.
- I will investigate cruelty, Don or Wings.

I'm about to start work soon, so I will finish this post when I get back, which will feature the consequences of my plan, possible mafia powers and some other scenarios I've thought of. Hopefully there is enough here to talk about while I am away though - looking forward to everyone elses thoughts.

[Hoopla]

5 power roles in a 12 player game seems like a lot to me...

I feel it likely I am the last PR

What do you think about Hoopla's claim?


Don't have time to talk about anything else, I have to work (on a holiday, sigh, but time and a half, yeah!).

When you have time, why don't you tell us what you think of all the claims? So far, you've attacked me for my interpretation of SpyreX's claim, while discarding what he is as irrelevant, and now you are using your limited time to ask others what they think instead of offering your own thoughts.

~~

I agree with the initial thought though, that 5 powerroles seems high, but when you consider what each of them actually do, the only one that has any real power is the gunsmith. The two doctors can save a kill, but can't be protected, the motion detector isn't really that useful and my role is searching for just one player. Assuming a 3 scum game, it's hard to balance the game with any less than 4 of these roles, due to them all being relatively weak.

So, if we are to assume it's likely that 0 or 1 of the powerroles are lying, it is more beneficial to lynch from the pool of vanillas by sheer virtue of having a likely higher concentration of scum. Also, leaving all the powerroles alive until night means we get more nightchoice interaction, which is a benefit to the town tomorrow. If most of the powerclaims are true, it also means scum will probably be forced to shoot from that pool of players to avoid leaving too much prob-innocents in endgame.

A potential roleblocker for scum is something to worry about, but it doesn't make sense to leave Sean alive if they were capable of blocking Snow and killing Sean. This would incriminate Snow the next day for failing to save Sean, and they don't run the risk of being caught with a gun. This means scum probably don't have roleblocker as their power, unless Sean is scum himself.

I think a godfather/priest (something investigation immune) might be an option. But if there is an SK, he is probably more likely to get that perk over the mafia team. That seems kind of bastardly as a mod to give someone a gunfinding role if it can only find 1/3 or 2/4 of the scum. So, I think the scum must have some other power like a rolecop or even Budja's role makes sense as a scum power.

I think if other people suspect Budja as the lying powerrole, we have a way of potentially catching him or proving him innocent. Here is a refined plan;

1) Lynch one of cruelty or Wings
2) SpyreX flips a coin. Either protects me or stays home.
3) Budja motion detects SpyreX
4) Snow protects Sean
5) Sean investigates Budja
6) Hoopla investigates the other of cruelty/Wings

If Budja doesn't die, then he has to claim what SpyreX did, and then be cleared by Sean.

This has a 50% chance of catching him out if he lied about his role (if SpyreX lives), and 100% chance of catching him if Sean isn't scum and mafia don't have a RB/GF. I've described why all of those situations are unlikely, so this is why I think the results for this particular set of interactions might actually prove/disprove someone.

Because if Budja is in fact town, it means scum will NK him tonight or have to put up with a confirmed innocent tomorrow, which then forces their kill the next night. So, we can either catch Budja as scum, or use him as NK bait. Thoughts on this use of night choices?

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: cruelty

New preferred lynch choice.

[Hoopla]

Hey don, what are your thoughts on what we should do for the night choices?

[Hoopla]

Well, I think we're stuck until we hear more from Snow, Sean, Wings and Cue.

Mod:

Can we get a round of prods of those players?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla ISO 27

She publicizes that she doesn't want to lynch DJ and Sotty. In other words, she doesn't find them scummy.

Yet...

Hoopla ISO 48

She chooses to "Investigate" Sotty. Quite a contradiction in reasoning from my point of view.

This seems to be the basis of the case against me, as far as I can tell, so I should point out that SK tells and mafia tells are generally different. Here is a rough idea of my thought process N1;

DisgruntledSean -

Claimed gunsmith

Snow White -

Claimed Doctor

SpyreX -

Softclaimed some sort of powerrole

cruelty -

Deemed unlikely because of how aggressive he was at times. SK's play for themself and getting tangled up in heated debates isn't a brilliant longterm survival strategy

Riddick -

Was quite aggressive like cruelty which seems like a non SK play.

WingsOWisdom -

Possible, but a newer player. I thought I'd be able to read him easier later in the game.

TeWuicah -

Possible, but a newer player who I thought I could read easier later in the game.

don_johnson -

Possible, but didn't think it was likely we had the SK so close to lynch, and then don coming in would play so naturally.

Budja -

Potential SK, flew under the radar, but the last game as town with him he was like this. Also was possibly in the spotlight the next day, so it might not be a worthwhile investigation if he was a chance of being lynched and wasn't the SK.

Sotty -

Possible, also flew under the radar like Budja, despite reading relatively town. By sheer virtue of limited other options, Sotty was a favourable choice.

~~

The next question is this;

Hoopla your up first. Why is Cruelty so scummy to you?

Which I also use a similar process of elimination for. When you have a significant chunk of prob-townies and partially cleared by other role townies, it really does narrow down the options. I believe the optimum play is to take all the powerroles into night, which by default means lynching from the pool of vanillas. The general town consensus is that at most 1 powerrole is lying which would mean at least 2 mafia are amongst the Vanillas and maybe an SK.

Lets look at what we actually have left;

Snow - Claimed Macho Doctor
Spyre - Claimed Macho Doctor
Sean - Claimed Gunsmith
Hoopla - Claimed FBI Agent
Budja - Claimed Motion Detector

Cue - VT, went nowhere last night
Don - VT, doesn't have a gun
Sotty - VT, is not an SK
cruelty - VT
Wings - VT


The top three are roundly believed to be true, so we use this as the base to work around. If there is a gunsmith, doesn't it seem weird to not have a scum role (SK) immune to it's powers or a false identity (FBI)? How often do you see a cop these days with out some sort of GF or role that dillutes results?

If my claim is true, it means it is likely there is an SK in the game, which I think is narrowed down to cruelty, Don or Wings.

If people believe that only one powerrole is lying, then it means there are two mafia amongst the vanillas, which give good odds for cruelty, Wings or Sotty.

I am choosing to lynch someone that overlaps with possible SK and possible mafia. The only other candidate with this makeup is Wings. I will post a summary of why cruelty is overall scummier than Wings after I address a couple more points.

~~

Now take a moment to think for a second. Assuming we are in the 3:9 setup rather than the 3:1:8 setup, then we are one miss lynch away from MYLO.

10 total: 7 town vs 3 scum

miss lynch + 1 doc dies

8 total: 5 town vs 3 scum

MYLO so NL + last doc dies

7 total: 4 town vs 3 scum

Well, going by my plan here, we prove/disprove Budja as town or scum. Would you like to use the gun investigation on Sotty instead? This would fully prove her as town if she doesn't have a gun, or prove her as mafia if she does have one.

This means, you get a shot at your Hoopla/Sotty theory. A cruelty lynch, Wings/Don investigation gives me a good chance at finding an SK. If Sotty comes up gunless, your theory is binned and we assess from there. If Sotty has a gun, hey, we have a scum lynch and proper leads!

SpyreX can protect Sotty so she stays alive, and I am exposed to an SK kill who presumably wouldn't risk leaving me alive. I can absorb that kill.

If I am mafia, this plan does not benefit me either. You know that you/Don are not my partners. Snow, Spyre, Sean almost certainly are town. I am prepared to get Sotty investigated over Budja. And lynch one of cruelty/Wings today. Where are my two partners?

Seriously, I commend your paranoia and like that we finally have some debate about what set-up we're in, but I think you're suspicious of me just because I am trying to craft a plan that controls everyone's actions. This is true, but I am trying to improve town odds. I hope this compromise shows I am, because it incorporates your concerns into our plan, rather than it being all my decision. What do you think?

[Hoopla]

No.. I'm suspicious of you because of.. well, I said why in day 1. My iso 24. You

still

haven't voted with any solid scumreads; you're not actually scumhunting, you're playing the numbers game and hoping something falls out. I really, really dislike this - there's no analysis of posts, there's no offence, there's just you trying to take control of town and make sure that we do what you want us to do. Yeah, the logic of what you're proposing is fairly solid, but it's also a nice way for scum to get rid of an innocent (then tomorrow it's oops, must be the other one!), whilst having a good grasp on who is doing what tonight. dislike.

I think this is more a personality tell than anything. I really enjoy the logic puzzle aspect of mafia, because results are closer to black and white than any debating about psychology can get to. I don't always play this way, mostly because most games don't feature coordinating night actions and making longterm plans (especially not normal games anyway) - Day 2 massclaim is uncommon.

The way some players try to improve town's chances at winning is through debate about psychology, scumtells and other forms of logic. The way I try to improve town's chances of winning is by finding a strategy that manipulates role interactions and gives us confirmed information. Confirmed alignments (especially alive ones) are golden information and I would rather try and produce this, than play mafia the way others are used to/like playing it. I know players like Sotty don't like the logic puzzle aspect of the game, and I understand that, but Day 2 massclaim means we have a much better chance of catching scum through nightchoices and process of elimination. Why deal in subjective when you have objective on offer?

Anyway, I am prepared to comply and offer subjective views on who is scummy (I have a post in the works on cruelty), but I thought I should at least express why I like to play the numbers game. SpyreX should know this from how I played his Pick Your Power game, which involved similar logic puzzles.

[Hoopla]

Some of you think we are going to "break the game" by giving the PRs assignments tonight. Given the number of claimed PRs, has it occurred to any of you that the scum have PRs that are relatively equal to our own PRs? Maybe they have investigation immune roles or even disruptive roles like a "bus driver."

Ok lets assume that Sean is a Gun Smith, Sotty is a goon, Hoopla is a bus driver, and DJ is a goon. Since DJ was the only scum to get any pressure during Day 1, the scum team figure he is the most likely person to get investigated so Hoopla drives DJ and SW. Sean happens to investigate DJ, but doesn't find a gun because DJ was driven. Now the town assumes DJ is inno.

Now lets use the same assumptions and plug them into Hoopla's plan for tonight. We lynch Cruelty and he flips town. Now its Night 2. Following the plan, Sean chooses to investigate Sotty. Knowing who Sean is going to investigate, Hoopla drives Sotty and WoW. As a result, Sean finds no gun on Sotty and the town automatically assumes that WoW is scum due to POE.

Sorry guys, but I am afraid we can't "break the game." I think its time we all got off our asses and started scum hunting.

Scum hunting > PRs any day of the week.

Those are some crazy assumptions you're making there. You're right insofar as there are

no

guarentees when it comes to playing the numbers game - there will always be an outside chance of an unseen situation coming into fruition. But you make scumhunting out to be an unrivaled alternate that produces constant accurate results, which is not true at all. Whatever way we play the game, we are always taking chances - always playing against the unknown, and at the end of the day there is only so much 'scumhunting' can do to improve your chances of lynching correctly.

We have the same goal - improve town's chances of lynching correctly. I am choosing to go about it in a way that uses every piece of information we have to attempt to prove/disprove players. You are going about it in a way where you are using whatever tells you've learnt, and sticking to them over much more substancial evidence. A prime example of this is the continuing suspicion of Don, who has no gun. You can cook up all sorts of longshot theories to dispute this, but chances are he is not mafia. I rate these chances much better than any scumhunting can produce.

I understand you are worried about night actions and whatnot, but being paranoid to the point of completely discounting them is ridiculous. Powerroles are in the game to help us confirm scum/town, not so you can go 'well maybe there's a busdriver or something'. It sounds like you're trying to weasel out of what the results have produced so far, because they don't fit your personal theories.

I have compromised and suggested Sean investigating Sotty, as you are worried about a Hoopla/Sotty scumteam - but if you seriously want to discount all the information night actions have produced/will produce, tell me now so I can push for your lynch.

[Hoopla]

This is my ~traditional scumhunting~ post for cruelty and cue or whoever I promised it to. Please note this post is devoid of evidence regarding claims and results, and just focuses on the RAW FAX


1. The way the DisgruntledSean's wagon fizzled out upsets me, because his play indicates active lurking scum. I wonder why that happened, oh well.
2. The speedlynch just before deadline on Sidekick was poor and probably scum motivated to protect one of cruelty, Snow or don who were the other potential lynch candidates.
3. DisgrustledSean again has been active lurking and giving us nothing posts throughout D2 - infact he's really only been here for his result claims (but lets not talk about that).
4. SpyreX has been feeling quite town, I don't like the buddying with Snow late on Day 1, especially when Snow was a hot candidate for lynch. I wonder what he is basing his reasoning on for this.
5.

Okay this is getting real old real fast.

[Hoopla]

Here are some FACTS Hoopla:

1. You have said Sotty is town on numerous occasions.

2. You have even "coached" her. When Iceman (DJ) was put at L-1 by Cruelty, you suggested that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently did. [Page 9, Post 215]

3. Your justification for voting Sotty is that she "flew under the radar." Sotty has been on every major lynch wagon except the SW one. How is that flying under the radar?

4. Sotty is perfectly content with following your lead today. She isn't even slightly skeptical of your alignment or that your plans could be an act of deception.

1. By my count, I only called her town once, which was in post 63.

2. How is it coaching? If anything, it is mild suspicion for a weird action, which I point out;

Ugh... Don't like that vote.

Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?

Also:

It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.

Very much this.

What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?

It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.

Unless you're going to explain how me coaching a player from 2005 from one prob-town's wagon to another town wagon makes sense, your point isn't substancial.

Why

am I more likely to be scum because of this? Don't just put coaching in inverted commas and expect it to explain itself.

3. Flying under the radar is more attributed to playstyle and posting frequency, than wagon stances imo. But you can have that point.

4. Sure she has - she thinks I'm potentially an SK.

~~

If you can't get me or Sotty lynched today, do you think it is worth using our nightactions (gunsmith) on Sotty to attempt to credit/discredit your theory? Because if you are going to discount nightactions as wifom and prone to extreme manipulation, I'd rather go with my plan to prove/disprove Budja. Your call.

[Hoopla]

I'd much rather see the ye ol fahsioned Hoopla-huntin' on the VT's honestly.

You say this as if I was always a badass scumhunter.

My line of thinking is;

1. I am not lynching any powerrole today, as these roles are more likely to be true than VT's. If anyone wants to dispute this point, they need to come up with a scenario that involves 2 or more of the powerroles as scum. If this isn't plausible, we have a much higher chance of lynching scum in the VT's.

2. I am not lynching Don. He does not have a gun. Mafia members usually have guns. It is not worth wasting a lynch on him out of paranoia, because we only get 1-2 more mislynches.

3. I am not lynching Cue. He did not go anywhere last night. He could be a goon that didn't perform a kill, but again, this is unlikely and not worth wasting a lynch on. His attack on me also feels quite town.

4. I am not lynching Sotty, because if there is an SK, it is not her. She still has a decent chance of being scum due to the limited places they could be, but I'd rather lynch someone who has a chance of being SK or mafia.

5. That leaves Wings or cruelty.

6. At the end of Day 1, I put my vote on cruelty when we were scrambling for a lynch on the basis that I thought all those suspecting him were pro-town. I feel similarly now, with myself and Don and Snow being advocates for his lynch. Also, the main wagons on D1 were Don, Snow, Sean, Sidekick (all town it seems) - I think it is suspicious how the potential cruelty wagon was quashed in favour of the other options we pursued that day.

Wings is lurking, which I don't like, but I feel similarly to SpyreX in regards to cruelty's 485. It sounds like scum flailing, pissed off because he is the best lynch without doing anything wrong. I've also had games where I've been busted by a lucky investigation or something else I had no control over, and you feel cheated. I don't know. It doesn't seem like a town reaction.

I heavily endorse competing wagons for today though between Wings and cruelty, as I think this could be worthwhile information later in the game when we have more flips. I'm in favour of cruelty, though.

[Hoopla]

Since we've established that you don't have a scumread on me (if you did I'd like to think that you'd mention it at some point) then I'm trying to work out why you'd endorse removing an active player (regardless of alignment) over a non-contributing lurker. Surely it's a smarter play to remove a lurker - especially when that lynch will also fit perfectly into your masterplan?

Valid point - all else being equal, lynching a lurker over an active player is generally a good idea. But I don't think things are equal. Before your post in 485, it would have held a lot more weight. Also, by process of elimination it means you each have very good individual chances of being scum, better than even I would say. If that is true, cases of town value are

second

to cases of scum value, because there is a higher chance of you being aligned with scum. I'm happy to debate this point if you feel these are unfair odds.

[Hoopla]

Cruelty, give me a scenario where more than one of the powerroles are feasibly lying?

[Hoopla]

I've already said you're not explicitely scummy - the additional reasons aren't meant to be a 'case', they are meant to show why I am willing to you over Wings. If it weren't for this massclaim boxing you in via process of elimination, I would not be rallying for your lynch. You are not scummy enough to be lynched in normal circumstances - you seem to be implying that I must have a case where you are all-round scummy to be able to lynch you. And I don't.

My 'case' is a process of elimination. You are scummy by default, due to other players having something that clears them/could potentially clear them/could clear others. This is none of your doing, and if you are innocent and have been framed by the numbers, I am sorry, but I am playing the odds.

There is no way in the world we are lynching Spyre, Snow, Sean, Cue, Don today. I think Budja or myself are possible NK-bait because we are both roles that can expose lying vanillas - so the scum might get rid of us without having to waste a lynch (the vanillas don't have that option). Sotty has been cleared of being an SK (if there is one in the game) - and I'm offering you and Cue the chance to rework night actions, but neither of you want to take it. My plan isn't gospel, but we are going to coordinate our actions to try and catch someone out or prove them innocent. If you have ideas how we can do it better let me know, but today, you or Wings need to be lynched.

I wouldn't lose sleep if Wings went today, but I'm going to need convincing. The facts are, vanillas have a higher chance of being scum overall, and we have two semi-cleared. This gives very good odds for you, Wings and Sotty of being scum, and we'd be idiots not to take this chance.

[Hoopla]

Okay, here are your powerroles:

- 2x Macho Doctor
- 1x Gunsmith

Balance a hypothetical set-up with at least 3 scum using only these powerroles for town.

[Hoopla]

I think you are putting way too much stock in a Day 1 read, a read that references Sotty as town on page 3 - and an implied 'town' read later on. Being open to lynching someone or not doesn't correlate to them being a viable investigation target. I was open to lynching cruelty or Snow, but they would have made rubbish investigation targets (see my post where I explain in detail the rationale for my decision).

I thought Sotty was town (again Day 1 read, but I digress), but her play also veered toward self-preservation which could have been an SK sign. Someone like Riddick for example was the opposite and would have made a rubbish target, because he was so openly aggressive. What would you have looked for in an SK?

Seriously though, you are nitpicking, and turning this debate into a circle, because I feel like I've already said pretty much the same things.

~~

Cue, that is nowhere near a balanced set-up.

~~

Again, what do you think about Sean targeting Sotty tonight?

[Hoopla]

2. If you are part of hypo-scum team Hoopla, Sotty, and DJ; then the posts that I pointed out looks like Sotty attempting to deflect attention away from DJ and you suggesting, in a discreet fashion, that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently does! In order for this hypo-scum team theory to not have any weight to me, I need to know Sotty's alignment.

What's the point in doing

any

actions at night if you're going to IGNORE RESULTS. DJ HAS NO GUN. Stop trying to put suspicion on him. That is such a longshot it's not funny.

[Hoopla]

1. Hoopla, the more times you repeat something, the more likely someone is to remember it. If something happens to me (get NKed or replaceout) I want people to remember my arguments today and consider a Hoopla-Sotty-DJ scum team later on.

2. In a past game I was in, I speculated about a possible scum team on Day 1, which turned out to actually be the scum team! Unfortunately, the scum killed me Night 1 and the town forgot about my arguments, so we ended up losing.

3. Look, Hoopla, do you even for one second consider lynching Sotty?


4. Also, does anybody else feel its weird that half the town (Spy, SW, Budja, Hoopla, Sotty) is calling me town even though my predecessors lurked/were inactive and my hypo-scum team theory is deemed to be "out there?"

1. Firstly, that is a terrible playstyle to develop. Nobody wants to play a game where lynches are decided by whoever says the same thing over and over the most. If you make succinct, logical, insightful posts, they will stand alone regardless of any continuous bleating.

2. So, you got lucky? If Sidekick posted her top 3 scum just before she died, I doubt I'd be listening to them much. This is because NEW evidence has surfaced, and will always continue to surface. I don't care who you are, nobody can pick regularly pick a scumteam Day 1 based on inthread posts and nothing else. We should always be using the most reliable forms of evidence we have. For example, a cop gets a guilty on someone N1, I will not ignore it D2 if their posts looked town D1. It'd take a serious piece of luck or inflated ego to think they're good enough to guess the slim chance when there might be a GF/Busdriver involved.

3. I have considered it, and the payoff isn't worth it in my mind, because I have knowledge there is probably an SK out there and it isn't Sotty. Wings/cruelty overlap into both mafia/SK possibilities.

4. You're being called town BECAUSE YOU WENT NOWHERE LAST NIGHT. This is the sort of evidence people use to make good judgments on alignment. And it's the sort of evidence you're ignoring in regards to Don.

[Hoopla]

1. You don't think there is any possibility that Sean's report was manipulated or DJ is immune to investigations?

Are you suggesting that DJ is clear and that he now has the green light to act how ever he wants, including not giving any reasons for his last three votes?

If every PR is legit, don't you think the scum also have PRs capable of deceiving the town's PRs?

Or do you think we are facing a goon army?

Yes it is possible DJ has investigation immunity or something like that. Is it likelier than Wings or cruelty being scum? No. Sotty? No. Budja? No. You? No. Come on, Cue. This is stupid. Powerroles are involved in the game to improve town's chances of winning. If you are going to ignore the one piece of information likeliest to help us, then you're doing it wrong. Town's won't win if everyone plays like you, because you are effectively playing in a 3:9 vanilla set-up where power doesn't count because it

could

be susceptible to something hidden.

Is there a chance of scum having some other role we don't know about? Sure. But you have no idea what it is, even if they have one, and would prefer living in crackpot theory land because you're either too scared to trust anything in the game, or you genuinely think your reads are stellar and above all others and you've broken the game. I don't care which it is, but your theory is a longshot, and easily proved/disproved without needing to make a suboptimal play today.

My personal theory is Budja is a/the scum powerrole, which makes a pretty damn balanced set-up (including an SK) to me. But it isn't an optimal play now to lynch Budja based on the real evidence we have.

[Hoopla]

Because Cue, my theory is just a theory, and not fact. I don't know what set-up we are in, and I don't know if one of the others like you, Don or even someone like SpyreX is lying. Individually, they are all longshots, but together there is a chance I am wrong about one of them, as Don could be an SK, you could be a Goon, and SpyreX could have just made a genius fakeclaim. We could even be playing in a 2:1:9 or even 3:9 if my role is a curveball.

I refuse to make assumptions beyond what is necessary today, and that assumption is the pool of vanillas without anyone clearing them has the highest chance of being scum. I want to play the odds. You want to believe you've picked the winning combination out of hundreds of different possibilities.

Would you be upset if cruelty was lynched today? What if he flips scum? Would that be enough to bin your theory?

[Hoopla]

We could even be playing in a 2:1:9 or even 3:9 if my role is a curveball.

Would you be upset if cruelty was lynched today? What if he flips scum? Would that be enough to bin your theory?

Nice disclaimers. Are you going to refer back to those if Cruelty or WoW flip town later?

I'm not psychic. I don't know for sure what set-up we are playing. I am forming a conclusion that seems most likely now. You should do the same, as you are discounting the (large) possibility you could be wrong, which is annoying as hell.

[Hoopla]

Well, if Sean doesn't show up very soon, lets get a replacement ASAP, so we can get on with the game.

[Hoopla]

The plot thickens. The disparity between crueltys response and WaW's response really throws me for a loop.

Care to give it more thought beyond disparity?

[Hoopla]

So Wings, you'd prefer Sean to investigate Budja over Sotty?

[Hoopla]

now a dillema, spend my friday night in drunken frivolity or stay home alone to post something for hoopla to shit all over, hmmm

I don't mean to be rude or insulting - it's just frustrating, you know. When you've signed up for a game with 2 week deadlines, you can't go away for a week posting nothing because it just kills the game. You made a committment to this, honor it.

[Hoopla]

Curious to see what Cue makes of all this.

Okay, we're quite possibly in mylo right now. I don't think no-lynching is a smart idea as we'll probably just lose Snow White, so we have to hit scum today or hope we're playing in a 2:1:9. I'll have some more thoughts soon, but first I want to hear Sean's investigation results and what Budja did - I hope he targeted me, because there is a 50/50 shot of me catching him out if he is lying.

[Hoopla]

I will tell you what I think after all the reports are out.

I want to know now before you have the benefit of more information.

[Hoopla]

I'm not claiming to be cleared - but the fact there is an SK in this set-up makes me more likelier to be town than if there wasn't an SK. Also, Snow is a Macho Doctor, which means she can't be protected.

Who's the scumteam Cue?

[Hoopla]

i see no reason for snow white to still be alive.

Erm, she's basically confirmed Macho Doctor now. Read the game.

[Hoopla]

i see no reason for snow white to still be alive.

vote: WoW

unvote, vote: hoopla

odd man out. motion detector/gunsmith/2 macho doc is quite possible. fbi? come on.

Don, what the hell is wrong with you? We are very likely in mylo, this isn't the time to be throwing out weak accusations to see if they stick. Lets stop for a minute and analyse what has happened, because there is a very strong chance of losing the game today if we're wrong.

We know that Snow White is confirmed town, so lets build a set-up around what we know;

1 SK

2-3 Mafia (maybe a PR?)

2 Macho Doctors
1 Gunsmith
1 Motion Detector
1 FBI Agent
3-4 VT's (2 already dead)

Don and Sotty don't have a gun, and Cue didn't go anywhere N1, and Sotty didn't go anywhere N2. I'm starting to struggle seeing a complete VT scumteam, which means the information we're trying to clear them with is false/misleading. How can the scumteam feasibly be in the VT's with so much of them cleared? You would have thought the PR's would have caught a scum by now, right?

We know the doctors are innocent, and speaking for myself I am innocent and the presence of an SK provides some evidence toward that. I see Wings' has a theory that is skeptical of me, so I won't try to claim I cleared or anything of the sort. Sean is a gunsmith who has been roundly believed so far, posted little and is living based purely on his claim. Budja is the most likely PR to be lying - he actually could be truthful about his role, which would make for handy scum use in the way of catching town power. But there is too much doubt about his role/alignment, and it fits quite nicely balance-wise for him to be scum;

1 SK

2-3 Mafia (Budja as the PR)

2 Macho Doctors
1 Gunsmith
1 FBI Agent
4-5 Vanilla Townies

If Budja is scum, I am looking squarely on Cue, due to Budja 'clearing' him on Day 2. Wings is my back-up choice for lynch today, because she hasn't been cleared by Sean - but I think we have better odds with Budja. As an aside, if any mafia is investigation immune, or Sean is lying, Don is blatantly obvious scum. But we'll leave that for now.

[Hoopla]

Don, what makes you believe the Motion Detector role is true, and even town aligned?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, what was your night action last night?

I stayed home, hoping Budja would investigate me so I could prove/disprove his claim.

[Hoopla]

I stayed home, hoping Budja would investigate me so I could prove/disprove his claim.

why would anyone but ds investigate you? isn't your ability limited to finding the sk? oh. that's right. you're lieing scum.

You have no idea what you're saying - Sean's investigation on me

would

come up 'has a gun'! This is largely the reason why I believed his claim in the first place, because gunsmith set-ups usually have 1-2 town gun roles to dillute the results of a gunsmith.

Budja's role sees if people stay home or not. He wouldn't know what I would do, now that I have no SK to catch. That's why I would have been a good investigation target, because if he's truthful, he could have proved his role by confirming if I went somewhere or not.

[Hoopla]

Budja's role sees if people stay home or not. He wouldn't know what I would do, now that I have no SK to catch. That's why I would have been a good investigation target, because if he's truthful, he could have proved his role by confirming if I went somewhere or not.

then you should have told him to watch you. do you believe town has a gunsmith, an fbi agent, and a motion detector?

But I didn't know I would have nothing to search for until cruelty flipped SK, which is when the town cannot speak.

It's plausible in a 3:1:8, but the simplest scenario in my mind is that Budja is a scum powerrole, which is either the motion detector or something else. I think I've covered this before...

[Hoopla]

Don't mind me, just destroying your feeble logic here;

@Cue, Possibility 3 is the scum attempted to kill someone else who was protected and cruelty succeeded in his kill.

How about you tell me who was protected N1? Actually, I'll do it for you. SpyreX protected Snow who is immune to protection, and Snow protected Sean - something she claimed to do before D1 ended.

Actually, the more I think this through, the more I like Hoopla as scum.

unvote, vote Hoopla

.

I don't think there are three scum if Hoopla is scum, so I am not too worried about LyLo possibities ATM.

That is such bad logic. If you think I am scum, but with one other person, the inverse of this means if I am not scum, you think there is a 3 person scumteam. Why would you try and go for the 2-player team and if you're wrong lose, rather than go for the 3 player team and if you're wrong get another shot. Of course, this is baseless assumption you are putting forth here, so I don't trust however you came to this conclusion in the first place, but I thought I should point out it's flaws.

1. Hoopla is a mafia role cop and investigated Cruelty on N1

2. Hoopla and the other scum dubiously opted to kill Cruelty instead of SW and a bullet hit Cruelty's vest. The Riddick kill and Cruelty's subsequent VT claim told veteran Hoopla that Cruelty was probably a SK and she exploited this situation accordingly.

For anyone else that wants to vote me, they need to provide rational logic why I could be scum. These two questions I have quoted need to be answered, but I'll also provide some more reasons why I'm not scum.

Re: Cue's point #1 - Don't you think it would be weird to have a role-cop in a set-up with Budja's role, that does almost the exact same thing?

Also, you need to justify having a nightkill-immune

and

investigation-immune SK in a set-up. SK's very rarely have guns, so the gunsmith couldn't have found him. Someone tell me why such a powerful SK would be in a Mini Normal?

I also want answers to the cruelty-kill N1 thing - why would hypo-scum me want to kill cruelty over protown players like Snow, Spyre, Riddick etc?

[Hoopla]

read 382 and tell me what

you

think about her thought process. she readily accepts

all

of the pr claims. she gives the odds in favor of there

not

being an sk in the game. just doesn't sound like the play of an fbi agent.

You're taking that post completely out of context. For one, we hadn't massclaimed yet, or even talked about massclaiming. If there was an SK in the game, I didn't want him to figure out I had inside-knowledge there could be an SK in the game. When you are a cop, you never hint at your role if you haven't found good information yet.

I'm ready to do this now;

Vote: Budja

I hope for your sake you are town Don, but the craplogic and reaching arguments you're spewing out makes me doubt you. You're lucky you were cleared by Sean.

[Hoopla]

Mass prods please Mod? We need more activity if we're going to have a chance of winning this. If nobody cares, then we're probably going to make a bad play.

no way. inclusion of an fbi agent in this game is bastard modding. it gives cruelty absolutely ZERO chance at a win. in a large normal, maybe, but not in a twelve player game.

No it doesn't. It is actually exceedingly rare for an SK to be NK immune

and

investigation immune in Mini Normals. At best, I have 3 shots at investigating cruelty's identity - they aren't great odds when you consider I could die well before that.

I laughed at you thinking SK's have a fairer chance of winning Large Normal's though with an FBI Agent. I've not seen it happen. Every SK win (~12) I've seen have been in Mini Normal's.

[Hoopla]

Finally!

Probably won't have time for a post before the death scene, but I'm very confident we've got scum and are still alive in this game. I'm seeing Cue or Don as potential buddies right about now.

[Hoopla]

Wow, that's a surprising result.

So, this means we have been playing in a 2:1:9 set-up all along. Really curious to learn Sean's results. I don't know why Wings was killed, when Snow was basically confirmed, what is the point in that? At this point, mafia must either have investigation immunity, or Sean must be scum. I'm quite sure it's the latter though, because a gunsmith in a 2:1:9 is starting to sound a little farfetched.

[Hoopla]

Okay, okay. I just remembered in the shower that Sean got a "no gun" result on Don which kinda changes things a little.

You were thinking about Sean in the shower?

[Hoopla]

If Snow is just going to die, then what is the point? We're better off having another confirmed townie around to minimize the amount of scum influence.

Also, we need to hear Sean's results too.

[Hoopla]

Don, you've claimed vanilla....you should know that. Why write 'unknown'?

[Hoopla]

i don't believe i claimed. i was v/la during the whole issue. everyone assumed i was vanilla. you can continue to do so if you like.

ds: waiting on results...

haha, wow. why didn't you participate in the massclaim then?

[Hoopla]

Well, with permission from the town, I think you should claim today anyway. If you have information we don't know, we should be using it.

[Hoopla]

Except you're not really a trump card - even if you claim to have information today or tomorrow, trusting you could lose us the game. I'll just assume you're vanilla though, playing games for the sake of playing games though.

Right now, we have one confirmed innocent, one confirmed by Sean and Budja, one confirmed by Budja and one confirmed by Sean. One of the scummiest players has been nightkilled. Don't you think something fishy is up? We're not all town, and the likeliest explanation for all of this is that Sean is scum and has false cleared someone.

No lynching gets us nowhere, really. Snow White will die, maybe we get Sean to investigate Cue, but we're losing the voice of a confirmed townie in the process. If we're to no lynch, we need to hear more from Snow because she will die tonight.

[Hoopla]

One way hypo-scum Hoopla would know that there is a SK in the game would be in the pre-game. Since she would only have one partner, she would automatically assume that there is a SK in the game.

Argument against this theory:

How does she know that the other baddie party is a SK and not another mafia team? She doesn't! So in that case, is faking a FBI Agent claim a reasonable gambit? I dunno.

Also, you're forgetting the possibility of a 2:10 set-up too, which is something becoming more common these days. Fun fact; my first mini normal I ran used a 2:10 set-up.

Erm, these results are interesting. Why are you suddenly being blocked right now, and not the previous nights? Or is it even a block? Some thoughts;

- Sean is scum, and doesn't want to clear the last townie. If he is scum, it explains why Snow White is still alive, because it minimises the questions of why a claimed gunsmith is still alive. But if he is scum, why not just claim a gun on Cue, and push the win this way? No result seems odd, I can't discern motivation either way.
- If he is town, then scum has a roleblocker, or maybe Cue is investigation immune, and this is the way the result gets formatted? Maybe the roleblocker is one-shot and were saving it for now.

It doesn't really make sense. The question we should ask, is if scum has a roleblocker, why are they using NOW, and not before? Is don or Sotty investigation immune and they were trying to bait Sean into clearing one of them for the endgame? It's either this or Sean is scum, and trying a weird gambit to throw us off. I probably think it's the latter.

For those that want no-lynch - please explain why this is a good idea.

[Hoopla]

I was thinking...one possible reason why Snow White is still alive is because she is a "Mafia" Macho Doc. Think about it. We are in a 2:1:9 setup. It would really suck for the scum if the SK shot one of them on Night 1. Then we would be down to 1:1:7 with low chances for both baddie parties to win. I think a "Mafia" Macho Doc would make the game more balanced for the scum.

Here is the game that showed me that there is such a thing as a "Mafia" Doc:

viewtopic.php?t=6304&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

Interesting theory - it's plausible that julien used the Macho Doctor as a mirrored role to match the town Macho Doctor. This would explain why Snow and Sean hasn't died. If Snow is scum, she needs to keep Sean alive for her own survival.

[Hoopla]

Also, don, your trump card doesn't happen to be roleblocking does it?

[Hoopla]

Also, you're forgetting the possibility of a 2:10 set-up too, which is something becoming more common these days. Fun fact; my first mini normal I ran used a 2:10 set-up.

2:10?

That is interesting. Link please?

Slightly off-topic, but sure;

The Seaside - This was the one I ran last year. Also, here are a couple more 2:10's off the top of my head - here and here.

[Hoopla]

hoop: please outline the downside to a no lynch as i don't see one.

I guess we can't fully guarentee that Snow White is confirmed town, so maybe narrowing it down slightly would be a better idea.

No lynching when you have a confirmed town doesn't improve your chances of narrowing down scum, so ordinarily I wouldn't suggest it. But since Snow isn't fully confirmed, I'll give in and say no lynch is probably the right call.

Vote: No lynch

[Hoopla]

Cue/Don/Sotty - what do you make of Sean suddenly claiming to have received no result after two nights in a row of investigations?

[Hoopla]

If you think Snow White is confirmed town, why the hell are we no lynching? Presumably she will die, right? How does that narrow down the field? It just seems like a waste of time.

[Hoopla]

5 alive instead of 6, just means it just takes one wrong vote from a townie to lose the game, instead of two.

[Hoopla]

do you actually believe that town has(had) three investigative roles and scum has a doc and a roleblocker?

No, I don't believe it. I'm quite sure Sean is scum, and I'd be willing to vote on it today if others agreed. If not, I'm okay with no-lynching, because I

don't think

Snow is fully confirmed, even if she is the likeliest candidate for death tonight.

If Sean is scum, I'd probably be pinning you as the partner too, on the basis you haven't been psuedo-confirmed by our proven PR. This gives lower odds to Sotty and Cue amongst our vanillas.

---

Everyone else: Is no-lynch okay with you? Please pay attention now, because this is the most important part of the game.

[Hoopla]

Cue/Don/Sotty - what do you make of Sean suddenly claiming to have received no result after two nights in a row of investigations?

I won't say it isn't strange but it could be the result of any number of things. If we are in a 2:1:9 setup I'd have to believe the scum have some kind of power, maybe they have been using a roleblock on the docs.

What's the point in roleblocking the doctors if they aren't killing who they're protecting? It seems quite obvious to me scum are using Snow White as a reason to keep the Gunsmith-fakeclaim alive, and the questions off him.

There are two options left; scum has a roleblocker, or Sean is scum.

If you think Sean is town, then you need to explain why scum are blocking Sean now, and have chose to leave him alive all this time, when they could have blocked Snow and killed Sean any time before then. Hell, a Snow block N1, and Sean kill then would have been a pretty standard scum move to get a Snow mislynch the next day and prevent a lucky investigation on themselves.

One possibility is scum's other role is also a powerrole that investigation immune to Sean and were fishing for an innocent on themselves to take home to endgame. But is this as likely as Sean-scum? No way.

[Hoopla]

Why wasn't he blocked (or anyone else?) on previous nights then?

[Hoopla]

So scum has a roleblocker AND a busdriver?

[Hoopla]

Or maybe they don't need to be so powerful if a gunsmith doesn't exist. I find it really weird how you're not looking at any possibilities of Sean-scum, but are perfectly okay with Bus-Driver (and whatever else) speculations.

[Hoopla]

It's okay Cue. Sean is scum, so there won't be a speedlynch.

[Hoopla]

Appologies for the lack of activity on my behalf recently - I've been having real problems accessing the site for any substancial period of time (I suspect others might be having this problem too).

Anyway, I'm here to say, lets no lynch this baby up - my wagon is going to LOSE the game. Sean has claimed 'no result' without any evidence of a roleblocker existing in this game. Why wouldn't scum roleblock him earlier, or even roleblock Snow and kill Sean after? How can you guys simple gloss over this detail and be satisfied with my lynch. My claim syncs with the set-up. Sean's doesn't. There isn't even any flavour for kills to indicate his role is truthful.

[Hoopla]

Hoop why do you think scumSean would suddenly claim no result when he could claim a gun on someone for the near win?

I don't know. It seems like a big risk claiming a gun result in mylo, no? I certainly wouldn't trust it - in the same way I wouldn't trust a cop claiming a guilty in mylo, because it makes it too convenient. Remember, if Sean claims a gun on someone, and HE is lynched instead, then it almost certainly confirms that player as innocent. Claiming no result is a much safer option to prevent his own lynch, and especially if his partner is someone unlikely to be lynched too.

The sudden claim of no result, seems like an attempt to set someone up as a roleblocker, maybe me, or someone who hasn't been cleared by Budja. Don also has a point, that Sean is running out of targets, and if they deemed claiming a guilty on someone in mylo too risky, then this isn't a bad play, because the immediate question people would ask is, why would scum do that? But then, Sean would need a pretty competant teammate to pull this off, because it is pretty gambity.

I just can't find a way to balance a set-up with a Gunsmith for a 2-scum team. A roleblocker and a role-immune scum is a must, but then what is the point of having a gunsmith if he can only find one scum? Seems pointless. How does this role fit for town?

[Hoopla]

That's nice Sean. Someone hammer no lynch and we'll deal with it tomorrow.

MOD:

Prod Snow White please.

[Hoopla]

nice premature hammer. hopefully snow can jump in in time to post some thoughts.

sw: protect noone or me. ftr, i am thinking hooper is scum. in addittion to the case i posted against them, the more i think about it, the less i believe that an fbi agent would exist in this game. the mere existence of said role in a mini makes the game entirely unwinnable for cruelty. if i am wrong, then we are victims of bastard modding. but either way, i just want

you

to know that i am going to night phase with that thought.

You're ridiculous, HE WAS BULLETPROOF. That's a perk not all SK's (especially in Mini Normals) get. By that same logic, SK's without a vest have zero chance of winning too, because they too have the same odds of being hit by a mafia kill as an investigation by an FBI Agent.

How does a Gunsmith in this game make any sense to you? Able to find likely just 1 scum - what is the point?

[Hoopla]

GOOD MORNING EVERYONE

How are we all doing? Strange kill - Sotty has proven herself to be pretty adept scum before, don't know why scum would take away that option. What the hell are you on about with results don? Do you seriously expect anyone to believe you to have results claiming lylo?

[Hoopla]

740 is seriously anti-town.

yes. i'm vanilla.

vote: hoopla

If you're town, unvote now. You're leaving the door open for scum to quickhammer.

Lets at least think about this for a bit.

[Hoopla]

dj,
you're not so far beyond suspicion that you can either
dictate town's night actions,
or dictate who reveals their night actions in what order.

true. but you are not a monkey, are you? noone has to do what i say. the whole issue yesterday was me trying to draw away a nk or a roleblock.

unvote

you weren't roleblocked again?

Lol. I can't believe you wanted to vote me over Sean. Why on earth would scum roleblock him

once

and give him a free investigation AND for that investigation to yet again, yield no gun. What is the point of his role if nobody has a gun?

[Hoopla]

We're stuck a crossposting loop!

[Hoopla]

well.. you have a gun, and the mafia probably have guns, and the sk probably had a gun. but i see your point and i think it is ridiculous that he wasn't roleblocked. i'd like to hear more of his theories, though. this is going to be an amusing day.

dsister is "semi" confirmed. if ds is scum then i am more than likely wrong about you, which means scum is ds/cue. what are you thinkin?

Well, scum either have a roleblocker, or Sean lied about being blocked yesterday. I just can't string together any theory where Sean is truthful though - he's been coasting on his claim since Day 1, scum hasn't made any attempt to kill him even though we know the scum has a blocker if Sean is town. But what purpose does blocking Night 3, but not Night 4 serve? Maybe scum have a 1-shot-roleblock?

If Sean is truthful, it means Dsister must be scum with one of you two that has no gun which is just so unlikely. The simplest answer in my mind is that Sean is scum, which means his partner is one of you two who he has fake-cleared.

I'm inclined to think it is a Sean/don scumteam, because he cleared you before Cue, which if believed would make the scumteam invincible unless one of you were lynched. But that wouldn't happen (at least until lylo) because you cross-confirmed each other. But then I still don't understand the motivation for claiming to roleblocked one night, but not last night, because you're semi-confirming Cue. Unless you're worried about being pinned by the theory Sean would confirm you early in the game, and you needed someone else 'confirmed' by Sean to pry the attention off you. Also add to the equation that Cue was cleared by Budja, which in a 2-man scumteam is quite a big clearance.

It's surrounded by WIFOM, but I do know today I won't be voting anyone other than Sean, because I can't think of a plausible scenario where he isn't scum. There is outside chances of a scum Macho Doc to match the town Macho Doc. It'd make sense because a 2-man scumteam with another NK out there makes it super hard for them to win, a scum doctor might work. But it's too much of a long-shot to consider, in my opinion.

[Hoopla]

i still have trouble reconciling the existence of an fbi agent in a mini. can you link to any games of this size which have contained one?

I still have trouble reconciling the existence of two Macho Doctors and a Motion Detector in a Mini Normal. This isn't the sort of game you can generate insight by comparing it to normal data.

Question: You are assigned the role of SK, with the twist of tweaking your own role.

- You can choose no addition to the basic killing function (Can be killed at night, but no FBI)
- You get to choose NK immunity, but if you do, an FBI Agent gets placed in the game.

What do you pick?

[Hoopla]

hoop: have you been investigating anybody else?

No. I didn't see the need to. We've already lynched the SK, and this wouldn't be a Mini normal if there was two.

[Hoopla]

That was a pretty stellar post Cue, and improves the theory of a Sean/Don scumteam in my mind. Whatever happens, we

have

to lynch correctly twice in a row to win this game, so we need to work out who the scumteam is now, and vote for the scummiest half of that team. I can understand how you favour lynching Don over Sean, because he is essentially the one player to you that has the highest chance of being scum, just in the way I know Sean is very likely to be scum.

Cue, Don - Vanillas
Hoopla, Sean - Investigation PR's

It's almost guarenteed to be one from each, unless we've been screwed by Julien and there is a scum Macho Doctor, but I reiterate, it is still a long shot. I seriously doubt we can have two investigation PR's against a two-mafia team, one-SK set-up, it's just too easy. And from my perspective Sean's role doesn't fit. I am town, so I know it doesn't fit. Gunsmith in this set-up just doesn't work and we really should be lynching him today, and pick from the vanillas tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

There's no way I'm not voting Sean today, because I'm still not sold on the Cue/don partner for Sean. I'd like to see more thoughts from Dsister before we take this to lylo v.2, but I'm more than 90% sure Sean is scum, so I don't know why we're wasting time.

Vote: DisgruntledSean

I'm a little surprised by Don's vote on Sean - it might be preemptive bussing, predicting Sean is going down anyway, and is trying to get as much town credit as possible. But I'm willing to hear his arguments tomorrow if I'm still alive. Whoever hammers, in case I die, I want my thoughts clearly on the record: Seans partner - Don 65%, Cue 30%, Dsister 5%

[Hoopla]

Hahaha, thanks for making the don/Sean scumteam even more obvious than it already it is.

I'm more than 90% sure Sean is scum, so I don't know why we're wasting time.

then why are you

second

on the bandwagon?

Because we were trying to figure out the scumteam

today

, rather than quicklynching the obvscum straight away, because I certainly don't trust this town in a 3-player lylo without me.

Dsister, Cue, please slap some sanity into Don now.

[Hoopla]

I'm glad someone else is seeing this too.

Dsister, who are

your

suspicions? You've not really given much of an opinion either way on anyone yet.

[Hoopla]

was cue cleared by our motion detector?

dsister: please take your time. you don't seem very experienced here.

cue: what would you think of a hoop/dsister scum team? macho doc/goon.

Yes, Cue was cleared.

Don, if you're town, I get the whole 'not wanting to tunnel' thing, but you're mindlessly slinging mud in every direction, seeing where it sticks, which is the complete opposite to tunneling and just as unproductive, because in lylo's town's can't afford one wrong vote. And when you keep changing your mind so frequently, it's hard to put any faith in a lynching majority you take part in.

If you're town, please concisely present your overall suspicions. Take some time and think it through, but it's paramount that everyone is clear on everyone else's positions in lylo.

[Hoopla]

What about the possibility of a one-shot-roleblocker? it's the only logical assumption i can come up with if Sean is being truthful. If Sean if is scum, there doesn't need to be a roleblocker present as he is the only one claiming one exists. It makes it hard to pick what scum's power could be (if they have one) if Sean is scum.

[Hoopla]

Don, this is getting to the point of being ridiculous, and I'm starting to suspect this is a smokescreen for something. Distraction against a Sean lynch, because you're the obvious follow-up choice?

answered above. i have actually been answering this question all along. hence why my vote keeps changing. only person i know is not scum is me, therefore i am entertaining any and all scenarios in which all of you are various couplings of scum. its called... scumhunting. i've been working my ass off.

No. It's not called scumhunting, it's wreckless, unnecessary play that just serves to incriminate you, and distract everyone else, and has a real chance of losing the game if you're town and leave a vote on a townie long enough. You've voted everyone except Cue today, so you've definitely been voting a townie at some stage.

Know what the weirdest thing is to me? The likeliest scenario we're in this;

One scum from Don/Cue
One scum from Hoopla/Sean

Yet, you've given little to no attention to Cue, when from a town perspective, you must think it's very likely Cue is scum, as you have to find a team out of Hoopla/Sean/dsister, and speaking for myself - that is bogus. Why are you taking a risk on one of us three, when Cue must be likely scum from your perspective?

Answer: Because you're scum. Guys, I've broke the game. Don and Sean are the scumteam.

Unvote, vote: don_johnson

[Hoopla]

WAIT NEW REVELATION LOL

Unvote, vote: dsister

[Hoopla]

WAIT NO LOL

I THINK I HAVE IT THIS TIME

Unvote, vote: Apple Crumble

[Hoopla]

Unvote

But seriously. Sean/don scumteam.

Cue, dsister, who are we lynching first?

[Hoopla]

Lol. Good game scum.

[Hoopla]

Ugh, well done Don and Cue - you unraveled the game nicely on the last day.

I don't want to complain about any of the circumstances that lead to our downfall, but 2:1:9's already steeply advantage town's, so there needs to be counterbalance to offset this. This town win takes it to;

Mafia - 6 wins
Town - 18 wins
SK - 4 wins

3:9 is widely considered the stock set-up of Mini Normal, so it's quite easy to see how 2:1:9's favour town. You have the same number of anti-town players to kill, but you then gain the possibility of cross-kills which is a potent swinging factor. It is also how we caught cruelty Night 1.

After targeting him then, and realising our kill didn't go through, it made it quite obvious to me he must be a bullet-proof SK, as nobody claimed a roleblocking action, or protection on cruelty. This opened up the possibility of an FBI agent fakeclaim, though lynching the SK day 2 didn't earn me as much credit as I thought it would, which was always going to make it hard to win, after Sean was locked into his claim early.

At the risk of sounding unloyal, I had a very difficult time managing Sean. When you have only one partner, it's such a disadvantage to bus any time before Day 2, but it will always kill you in the end if you're seen protecting him at any time. I had a lot of aspirations for this game after seeing I was in a 2-player scumteam, and I felt free to do what I wish, but it was a handicap having Sean chained to my leg. I understand it is his first game, but his infrequent posting, and failure to think for himself was costly in the end.

In spite of all this, I think we did quite well pushing it into lylo, but it was always going to be a difficult task. We were weighing up the possibility of claiming someone had a gun on them in lylo, but it seemed like a big risk. We deemed it a better chance of winning if we both bussed each other hard on Day 4 and 5, which would appear counterproductive to the scum cause at such a time, hopefully earning the other one of us enough credit to disprove the Hoopla/Sean scumteam.

However, I overestimated how much that would come in to consideration. Neither don nor Cue really saw or thought any of that, which makes me feel like it was a waste, and we ought to be pushing hard on someone else on Day 5.

Here is our Quicktopic.

[Hoopla]

Hoop I think you did a great job and I applaud taking the well-reasoned gambles - and killing me because sheeesh.

I had a feeling you would be on to me if I left you alive any longer. Don really changed gears from Day 1/2 to Day 3 onwards - it was seriously like a complete turn around. It's kind of frustrating, because you build an expectancy based on what you see at the beginning, and base your night kills on that. I couldn't really that coming. Cue played very well for a newbie also - his reads were solid almost all game.