Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Why do three votes make a bandwagon, and not two? From the tone of your post, it seems you have an anti-bandwagoning stance - can you clarify your position for me?Sidekick wrote:
Is dat sum bandwagoning I smell?Riddick wrote:vote budja
let's try and lynch him before he can post again. it'd be rather funny. (+ he's scum)-
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Hoopla
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At this point in the game, there were two votes already placed - I find it highly unusual that the next four votesallhit different targets.
SpyreX wrote:Case solved. Time to lynch budja!
CHOO CHOO
Vote: Budjacruelty wrote:vote: cathart
omgusFongoid wrote:Lol SpyreX
Vote: DisgruntledSean
I prefer my friends to be happy!
The last two votes I am most suspicious of, if only because they are newer players who might be a bit more sensitive to bandwagoning. Were they truly random? I doubt it - there are better odds of one of them hitting an already voted player if they voted randomly. This implies to me they may be wanting to avoid attention early on and follow site culture, which is generally an indication of newness or a weak scumtell.WingsOWisdom wrote:Vote: IcemanE
I'm sick of winter.
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Then suddenly, the game spins on it's head and small wagons start forming.
Hoopla wrote:Sotty, that was so predictable. I'm a little disappointed.
Vote: Budja
Here is the first event, which seems mostly jokey and lighthearted. This is hard to analyse, due the playstyles of myself and SpyreX being open to wagoning, and Riddick seeming the same way. This thought is proven true, by how quickly it falls apart when more genuine reasoning starts surfacing. Riddick and sidekick come into the spotlight now;Riddick wrote:vote budja
let's try and lynch him before he can post again. it'd be rather funny. (+ he's scum)
Weak reasoning - a bit of a stretch to classify as eager for a lynch. Sean, is this your first mafia game here? Have you played anywhere else?DisgruntledSean wrote:Vote: Riddick
i don't know if you're bandwagoning exactly,
but a bit eager to lynch
This vote is sound, and is a valid point. Although Riddick's activity and attempts to push the game forward seem more town than anything.Sotty7 wrote:Eh I don't like Riddick echoing hoopla and following Spy. Sure it's only page two but a little original thought would be nice.
Unvote, Vote: Riddick
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The sidekick wagon, which has grown at the same time as Riddick's is a lot weaker in my opinion. It all stemmed from this question;
I think it's debatable that Sidekick even found something scummy - she pointed something;SpyreX wrote:If you found something you thought was actually WORTH noting as a scum manuever, why would you leave your vote on a random?
Unvote, Vote: Sidekick
This was not insisted as scummy, although it likely had that air about it. Perhaps she did find it scummy, then would have felt like a hypocrite jumping on a bandwagon to support her views.Sidekick wrote:
Is dat sum bandwagoning I smell?Riddick wrote:vote budja
let's try and lynch him before he can post again. it'd be rather funny. (+ he's scum)
Riddick then parrots SpyreX;
Riddick wrote:
you're right that IS a good question.SpyreX wrote:A better question is:
If you found something you thought was actually WORTH noting as a scum manuever, why would you leave your vote on a random?
Unvote, Vote: Sidekick
unvote vote sidekick
Budja does too, which makes me uneasy. I don't see him as the type to commit to such an early degree of certainty. I also don't see a wagon like this spawning from merely one (unsubstanciated) point, developing on scum rather than town. My early guess is one of these three is scum.Budja wrote:
scum tell #1.Spyrex wrote: If you found something you thought was actually WORTH noting as a scum manuever, why would you leave your vote on a random?
unvote, vote Sidekick
Riddick just seems to be following SpyreX's HYPER CERTAIN style.
Sidekick and Sotty are probably town.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hahaha stealth wagons - that's brilliant. Not only would you have to fool Budja into not knowing how many people were voting him, you'd also have to hope nobody else on the wagon notices too, because I'm sure there'd be one or two nervous worry-ers in the group.cruelty wrote: Ignoring the fact that it's vaguely insulting that you claim you thought you could somehow create a stealth wagon without anybody noticing, I'm just not convinced that a) this isn't a retroactive justification and b) that even if you're genuine, it's a viable strategy. There's so many variables which would have to fall in line for this plan to work that to me, it just smells like a contrived explanation for what was initially little more than an oddity, but by virtue of the above quote has now turned into possibly the most significant moment of the game thus far. Far eclipsing Spyrex's strange sum/scum misread.
Incidentally, the concept of a stealth jack-in-the-box wagon just seems horribly devious and more in-line with scum thinking to me. I guess it's not inherently scummy to want to pressure someone, but thetypeof thinking here just doesn't really seem pro-town to me. That said, null tell I guess, you might just be a villainous person.
I don't think it's a scum motivated tactic though.-
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Hoopla
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Jah, good posting. I don't see much motivation, or explaination for the Iceman target too - it's a whole lot of filler, with little content behind it. And of the little content posted, it's fairly contradictory. Sorry Budja, but you'll have to wait.WingsOWisdom wrote:Echoing the comments on DisgruntledSean's posts. There seems to be a complete change from 102 to 110. In 102, he's worried about IcemanE getting too many votes, but in 110 he votes for him anyway. In 102, he'd like to wait until IcemanE returns with more content (or is replaced), but in 110 he appears to be considering the benefits of lynching potential-scum IcemanE without hearing further from him.
Unvote Vote: DistruntledSean
Unvote, vote: DisgruntledSean-
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Hoopla
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WRONG! Nobody reads the first day (enough) if it becomes too lengthy - every player has a limit when it comes to the amount of information they can analyse in an accurate, productive manner. Know what happens when the day drags on for 500+ posts? People resort to iso-reads Day 2 which is a ridiculous method for scumhunting, and makes you see things you want to see, rather than context. Some people don't even do this, and will just resort to their Day 1 reads, without factoring in the new alignment information.icemanE wrote: Hoopla - a nice long day one is ideal because you get plenty to reflect on in later days.
Seriously, ~200 posts is optimum for the first day. As far as lynching scum goes, the Day 1 lynch is very close to random (quite possibly worse than random). There is no good point arguing for 20 pages on Day 1 if people won't read them the next day, and arguing for these extra pages won't dramatically improve our Day 1 lynch chances.
Lets push something through.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I'm liking these competing wagons. Iceman not voting Sean is probably pro-town points for Ice.
Cruelty and Fongoid - are you opposed to either of these wagons? Why are your current votes better than these two? Would you like to present a nice, concise case on each of your suspects before I call this a two-horse race?-
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Hoopla
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I'm too observant for my own good. Next time, use the '' emoticon during a live experiment, and I will filter my thoughts to try and avoid ruining anything.SpyreX wrote:Damnit hoopla you keep ruining experiments before they can come to fruition!!!
(I was HOPING ice would come jump in on Sean but nooo)-
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Hoopla
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My guess is town/town - Riddick is starting to develop into a stronger town read. I'm not sure if it's a personality trait, but I really believe in the 'newer players are less active as scum' tell, mostly because they're still grasping the subtleties of the game. I think Riddick has an almost innocent curiousity, with little filter between brain and fingers, something which would be stifled a lot more with the knowledge of being scum. We have a quite a few newer players here, and of them, he's the one I wouldn't lynch.SpyreX wrote:That said:
What do you think about this latest Sidekick / Riddick exchange and the ebb-flow in Sidekick's play?
I speculated early about Sidekick town, but she hasn't done anything recently besides be hit by cars. I'm not seeing a case on her outside a mild dose of active-lurking, but she needs to pick up her game soon though, otherwise her reasons for voting Sean will start mirroring her play.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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That's awfully generous of you.SpyreX wrote:THIS is what I was waiting for? Hmmmpph
6.5/10
Still feels town - I have no desire to lynch from the limited pool of regularly active players, also.DisgruntledSean wrote: @hoopla: does the knowledge that riddick's played under an alt. change how you interpret him?-
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Hoopla
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What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?Sotty7 wrote:Ugh... Don't like that vote.
Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?
Also:
Very much this.WingsOWisdom wrote:It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.
It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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ATTN EVERYONE:
Get in here. We have very little time until deadline, and we haven't even got a claim yet. I don't want to be in a position where a claim from Sean or Iceman doesn't happen until the last minute, and we're forced to lynch that player with limited speculation, or having to scramble for the other option (that probably won't have time to claim).
The way that most of the players are coasting on their suspicions of these two, it's starting to make me doubt the odds of us having scum pinned - contrary to SpyreX's assertion.
So, since the majority of this town is on Sean or Iceman, I want everyone in their next post to say whether they are open to switching - how strong their suspicion of each candidate is, so we can come to some kind of consensus of who should claim. Lets go!
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Mod:In your latest votecount Iceman should have 5 votes, not 6.
Fixed, thanks-
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Hoopla
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I'll answer my own question while I wait for all of you;Hoopla wrote:ATTN EVERYONE:
So, since the majority of this town is on Sean or Iceman, I want everyone in their next post to say whether they are open to switching - how strong their suspicion of each candidate is, so we can come to some kind of consensus of who should claim. Lets go!
Prepared to switch to Iceman, although have a slight preference for Sean (especially if we get a replacement for Ice). Sean's play fits quite nicely with newb-scum trying to get away with active lurking and low content posts. He'd be my preference for claiming, but I'm not as confident as Riddick is with his reads.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I don't understand the suspicion behind post 222 - why is that exactly?don_johnson wrote:very well, thank you. i am also caught up.
cruelty's 222 seals the deal for me. i would rather lynch cruelty or fongoid, but ds is quite possibly their scum partner. i don't see why they would avoid two town wagons on day 1.
so are we waiting for another replacement, is there enough support for fongoid/cruelty, or do i place ds at L-1?
i will now take questions...
At this stage, even though we've been granted an extension, Fongoid probably won't have enough support for a lynch - cruelty even less, I'd say. In my opinion, we need a lynch to happen soon, and it should probably be Sean (just) going by the answers we've got in so far.
I'm not fazed if you put him to L-1 - because your support is enough to warrant a claim from Sean, in fact I will formally request it;
Sean, claim in your next post.
If anyone disagrees, you have until Sean gets here to challenge this decision.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Yeah, I'm also in agreeance that Sean's claim doesn't seem like a newbie-fakeclaim at all. I'm willing to let him live, even if the most we get out of it is him eating the night kill.
Who to go after now? Don has really lit up the Iceman slot with the townie goodness, and it suits my theory that both the major D1 wagons were town. Do we have enough time to power a bandwagon through on someone else though? Cruelty and Snow White seem like the only other plausible candidates who could generate enough support. I'd prefer cruelty though, so here you go Don;
Vote: cruelty-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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60 hours to go, shitshitshit, we need to do something guys.
Sean isn't a lynch choice any more, so those voting him need to swap to someone elseimmediately.
I'm usually quite pessimistic about towns that have consigned themselves to scrambling for lynches, but we don't have any other choice. Those lurking in the 60 hours will feel my wrath, and those posting without voting someone else and explaining their current suspicions they're open to lynching, will feel even more of my wrath. And I won't wear gloves.
Open to lynching:Cruelty, Snow White, Budja
Not Open to lynching:DisgrustledSean, don_johnson, Sotty7, Riddick
Only if necessary:Sidekick, WingsOWisdom, TeWuicah, SpyreX-
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Hoopla
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It wasn't a strong vote, I freely admit this- mostly because the two prime suspects of the town suddenly swung town. It was mostly a gut call, but in an attempt to quantify it, it was because it was something that a couple of my town reads were open to, and advocating which gave me a bit more confidence. Maybe you just have a scummy vibe you emit that attracts fencesitters like me?cruelty wrote:Can you explain why you're voting me please?
I get the feeling you'll be safe for now anyway. Snow White has claimed a protection role?
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Well, that really only leaves Sidekick with a decent amount of support, and isn't a claimed beneficial role;
Unvote, vote: Sidekick-
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Hoopla
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*shrug*cruelty wrote:I find it a little hard to believe we zeroed in on two important town prs day 1..
It happens sometimes. Remember Mini 909 - Mindgamer was wagoned to L-1 first on D1 and claimed a PR, then we lynched Quagmire instead who was a CPR Doctor. Then the first scum kill was a tracker. And there was a lot of vanilla in that set-up too.
If one is lying, who do you think it is?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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See, there are other roles that can catch you/prove you innocent, such as role-cops, trackers and watchers for instance, and that's just the beginning of the list. So claiming targets is still necessary - you're not going to get away with claiming nothing.Snow White wrote: And result claims? Hoopla. I dont get results i just go about my nightly nightwork. I am not told as to whether my protection is successful or not.
Certainly ill full claim provided there is enough support behind me full claiming.
A protection softclaim with no claimed targets, that nobody knows the full extent of is ZERO use to the town, when it is probably only your claim yesterday that saved you. Although, if we had a little bit more time and weren't scrambling, it might have been worth considering you then for this exact scenario today. I'd prefer it if you just claimed now while you're online, rather than just delaying the inevitable, because I doubt anyone is going to want you to keep secrets.-
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Hoopla
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Haha, why didn't you do this earlier Snow, like when you were trying to breadcrumb yesterday?cruelty wrote:
You serious? You can't lay breadcrumbs after you've been asked to role claim.SW wrote:Iso9. M.A.C.H.O. down the side.
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We need Sean's results before we do anything else IMO. Macho Doctor does kind of fit with Gunsmith though, in the sense they're both relatively abstract roles.-
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Hoopla
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Hey, who did you protect?SpyreX wrote:...
I, too, am a macho doc. Which made no sense without the existence of another protective role. SW's claming doc, and macho specifically, makes me buy it.
This is a good result for town, I think, as Snow and Spyre have essentially crossconfirmed each other, or are scum together putting all their eggs in one basket, which seems very unlikely from the way it has unfolded. The role is way too uncommon for Snow to pick it out of the bag and be fortunate enough to have Spyre there to confirm her. The only other possibility I can think of is Spyre taking advantage of a roleclaim that he can get a solid fakeclaim in on, but again, this is also very unlikely, because he wouldn't know if there are other doc roles to contradict him.
I'm quite content believing both of Snow/Spyre - it seems like a probable set-up quirk (I actually kind of like it, it's clever).-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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If you want to play the balance game, here is a frequency of the commonly used 12 player closed set-ups. As it's likely we have two doctors, it's hard to know if we have another killing faction in the game before a night happens with two kills, but I give it better than even odds we're playing in a 3:9 set-up. The thing that makes me pause is the gunsmith role, which could be used in conjunction with an SK to give it investigation immunity - but that seems like a longshot.Cuetlachtli wrote: I am going to assume that each mini normal game, except ones with Serial Killers, have three scum bags in them. If that is the case, if all three scum bags are powerless goons, is it safe to assume that the town consists of vanillas? If a goon army can safely assume that they are facing a vanilla team, wouldn't there be added incentive for the scum bags to fake claim knowing that they won't get counter-claimed?
I guess what I am trying to get at is can we completely trust Spy, SW's, and DS's PR claims right now?
Unless it has been confirmed beyond doubt, and there are no realistic sinister explanations for a player to claim a certain role, you can never trust a role claim. The fact is though, Snow White claimed a protection role on Day 1, and if she was scum, this would have been a huge risk not knowing if there is a doctor in the game. Many games have doctors, which makes it tough to believe Snow would fakeclaim something like that. Then having it confirmed by SpyreX adds credibility to the claims.
Gunsmith sort of fits with Macho Doctors, as they're relatively obscure but not overly powerful roles. And when you consider the claim came from a newbie fresh to the site, it seems way more likely it is his role, rather than a fakeclaim. No offense to Sean, but he has been quite inept so far, that I doubt he has the ability to make such a good fakeclaim first game in.
The annoying thing is, it can also be a viable scum tactic to leave claimed PR's alive (especially doctors) to incriminate them for mislynches. But if all these claims are true, it makes it increasingly more difficult for scum to play this game due to it being potentially damaging if they don't get rid of them before endgame. This could be easily thwarted by a possible Mafia Roleblocker, or even a mafia role that comes up without a gun (maybe a Priest) - I think your assumption of a goon army isn't reasonable, as it's quite common these days for a scumteam to have another power other than their group kill.
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I guess to answer your question directly - there is no reason to disbelieve them now, because the claims make sense, fit together nicely, and will potentially soak up NK's meaning we don't have to consider lynching them. I think it's likelier scum are in the remaining pool of candidates, which is where we should be lynching, because it's improved odds of scum, and doesn't carry the risk of getting rid of potential town power.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Budja, why claim rather than try and defend yourself, or actually scumhunt?
I don't see how this information is more beneficial to town than scum, as you've now outed Cuetlachtli as probably powerless.
Also, I think I'd be open to massclaim talks seeing as most of our powerroles are out in the open anyway. We may as well box scum into fakeclaims early to minimise their options. Thoughts?-
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Hoopla
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Busdrivers are uncommon in Mini's, but given this set-up I think it's possible but still a longshot. Roleblocker is possible (but why no Sean block?) - scum would need some power to counter what the town has. But if there is a Mafia Godfather/Priest, that could be adequate power against a gunsmith, which is by far the most useful of all the roles so far.
I think the Godfather type role is more likely, otherwise I would have expected scum to block Sean, unless they're using him to out potential powerroles.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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And considering Snow was talking about protecting him too. This makes me more confident that scum don't have an RB, but maybe a GF/Priest instead to be immune from investigations.SpyreX wrote:I could see shying away from Sean if you thought there was a tracker or watcher. Those would have been instant death.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I think the more compelling evidence is the claim he didn't go anywhere last night which partially clears him from being mafia.SpyreX wrote:I wouldn't save him from the wolves but its definitely more than enough to push him to the happy side for the day.
I'm surprised you haven't asked why I'm so confident about you.
That one isn't in doubt to me - but go on, tell me anyway.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Why is my view of SpyreX relevant if you think what he is irrelevant? Am I missing something here?cruelty wrote:This isn't about you, therefore what you actually are isn't relevant. What Hoopla thinks you are is.
Hoopla says it's unlikely you'd claim macho doc because you were unaware of other doc roles (therefore you're not taking advantage of a roleclaim to fakeclaim, and must be town).
You say you thought SW was normal doc (which in my mind means the likelihood of there being other protective roles = close enough to zero to be negligible.
If you thought SW was normal doc, then there's every likelihood you're taking advantage of her claim (because why would there be other docs?) to support your fakeclaim (as Hoopla is worried about). Whether you are or not is irrelevant (to this particular point), the fact that she hasn't pursued it is what concerns me.
I'll run through the logic of why SpyreX's claim is probably true;
- Snow claims a protection role late on Day 1
- SpyreX derails that wagon by claiming he has reason to believe the claim is true.
- Next day Snow claims Macho doctor, which is when SpyreX comes out too.
- For SpyreX to be taking advantage of Snow's claim, the breadcrumb from yesterday needs to be fabricated, which I doubt he would have committed himself to if scum.
- Macho Doctor implies that there must be some other protection role out there. What is the point in having a doctor that can't be protected, if there is nobody else to protect her?
- The way SpyreX and Snow's claims match up make sense, espcially since nobody else has claimed a protection role.
THIS IS A RIDICULOUS REASON TO SUSPECT ME.cruelty wrote: If he assumed normal doc, then it's reasonable (per your above quote) to suspect his claim isn't legit (as why would town have more than one normal doc?). Seems odd to me that you let this slide.
I'm not actually that suspicious of Spyrex, I'm not a huge fan of his letting Hoopla slide for something that in my eyes isn't really significant at all (I'd consider her pushing Budja's wagon over a confirmed townie to be less noteworthy than her almost complete lack of offence throughout the entire game) but I think the villain in this weird dynamic the two of them have got going on is Hoopla.
I also think the claim thing is a little odd but I guess we'll see what happens there. I don't really see the point of breadcrumbing when there's only two players left to claim (and statistically I'd expect them to likely be vt given we've had 3 power roles + one [Hoopla] presumed).
- You're suspicious ofmebecause I didn't pick up on a detail that you deem irrelevant?
- You're suspicious ofmebecause someone you're not suspicious of is trying to clear me?
- I am acknowledging the outside chance of a clever gambit, but it doesn't make sense (see top of post).
The breadcrumb was because I wanted all the claims out before I claimed. This breadcrumb enables me to do it, because it has locked me into a claim, so I can't alter my claimed role based on the other claims.
I am an FBI Agent. And I think we're playing in a 2:1:9 or 3:1:8 set-up. Here is my breadcrumb explained;
Truthseeker (24) = the first returned result on a google search of 'my role is fbi agent'
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I think I have a good plan.SpyreX wrote:If Budja is lying there exists (probably him) a rolecop - thats the only one that makes sense.
Of course these roles are all "outside the norm"ish soo.
Lemme think about it and try to devise a plan tomorrow/Monday. Input is awesome though.
Give me a couple of hours to find any loopholes/better options and I will share.-
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Hoopla
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To start with, this is unfamiliar territory for me, and probably everyone else here. I have never seen a massclaim Day 2 in a Mini Normal, and to be honest, have never even considered a massclaim this early in a normal game, but suffice to say this game will have a greater emphasis on the logic puzzle aspect, which I know some players may not have had as much experience in.
But I encourage everyone to do their best to think through the range of possibilities and the consequences of actions proposed, because one or two people deciding the town's collective actions is a BAD idea. Any isolation of power is susceptible to error in judgement, or the possiblility of scum being in control. You would never let one person choose the day's lynch, so we musn't decide on a course of action for today/tonight without equally interactive discussion and consensus.
Things we need to sort out:(a starting point for those unsure what to do now)
1) Do we have reason to disbelieve any of the claims so far? Which claims are more likely to be truthful, and where is scum likely to be?
2) What set-up are we probably playing in? Our lynch/nightactions should be tailored to benefit us in the scenario we deem most likely, yet still not be too damaging if we are wrong about the set-up we are in.
3) Who today's lynch should be (if any)?
4) What all our night actions should be (if we deem coordinating to be a beneficial idea)?
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It is hard to know where to start when attempting to exploit role combinations, especially when there is a chance some of them aren't true. So what do we do? Because in this situation, attempting to account for every hypothetical scenario where certain roles might be lying, or hidden scum roles potentially coming into play creates chaos too hard to predict. Answer: We make assumptions to simplify the chaos.
Normally this would be a potentially fatal thing to do - discounting outside chances to produce a simpler equation. But we are not in lylo, so the worst punishment for assuming wrong today, is producing results unexpected to what we set out to achieve, which can be refined tomorrow (or maybe the next day). I'm open to other theories on the nature of such assumptions, and what we should be trying to achieve with our lynch/nightactions, but trying to include unlikely scenarios into considerations makes the equation so hard to digest.
Here is my first assumption:Snow White and SpyreX are town.
Justification: Snow wouldn't claim Doctor as scum D1, as it is a highrisk of drawing a counterclaim. SpyreX not counterclaiming D1 (and believing Snow) implies that he genuinely thought another doctor was in the set-up which reflects well on him. SpyreX claiming Macho Doctor means Snow cannot be scum, unless she is scum with SpyreX, as claiming Macho Doctor, then getting lucky and having a town variant confirming her is so unlikely. Snow/SpyreX is definitely not worth considering at the moment, and if on the outside chance it is true, it has a good chance of being discovered by accident through our nightactions.
Here is my second assumption:DisgruntledSean is town.
Justification: He is a first game newbie, who doesn't seem to fully understand what scumhunting means, let alone what makes a good fakeclaim. How likely is it that he had the prowess to fabricate this? Something else I can reveal now that makes me believe him, is based on my role. My gun. Gunsmith set-ups often have at least one town gunowner to dillute the results of the Gunsmith's investigation, and occasionally one mafia without a gun (although that is unlikely if there is an SK in the set-up, who is the one who probably won't have a gun).
Here is my third assumption:There is an SK in the game.
This one is less conclusive, and more open to debate. Points against include only one NK on N1, a diminishing field of potential candidates to find this alleged SK, or a crafty set-up design, aimed to mislead me and the town, with an FBI Agent/no SK. Although, I (and cruelty) recently played in a game with this scenario, it isn't common enough overall for mods to use linked roles (nurse, miller etc.) without their counterparts. Or at least not common enough to make it likelier than there being an SK overall. I think an SK fits too well with the gunsmith for this not to be a reasonable assumption. This assumption also has little to no punishment for being wrong too, as the list of possible SK suspects is quite small;
Budja- Claimed Motion Detector
WingsOWisdom- Possible
cruelty- Possible
DisgruntledSean- Claimed Gunsmith
SpyreX- Claimed Macho Doc
Sotty- Not possible
Hoopla- Not possible
Snow White- Claimed Macho Doc
Cuetlachtli- Cleared by Budja (unless Cue deliberately no-killed N1)
don_johnson- Possible
Wings and cruelty seem like the most likely picks for SK. I can't see any of the claimed powerroles lying (or at least lying to be an SK), as they are so well entwined. Budja maybe, but Motion Detector seems like a very shorttem claim, especially if mafia is likely to be amongst the VT's. DJ is also possible, but I think he is less likely than cruelty and Wings - this is more a gut read on Ice's and DJ's individual play though. I'm finding it hard to quantify, but if anyone is really that curious I can try.
Here is my fourth assumption:The set-up we are most likely playing in is 3:1:8.
This one is also open to debate. Here is a collection of data I did recently that might be helpful to those less familiar with balance of a Mini Normal game. This assumption is based on me believing the powerrole claims are true, which fits balance-wise with a 3:1:8 better than a 2:1:9 - so here is what we have based on said beliefs;
3 Mafia (unknown power)
1 SK (potential unknown extra power)
2 Macho Doctors
1 FBI Agent
1 Gunsmith
1 Motion Detector
3 Vanilla Townies (2 currently dead)
Overall, this seems like a fair and balanced set-up, but if this is true, it leaves us in an intriguing situation, as we have cruelty, Wings, Sotty, Cue, Don all claiming vanilla. Here's something I doubt though: Every scum would fakeclaim vanilla, especially with a gunsmith, and especially with a motion detector.
This makes me think some of our power must be lying (or I am wrong about the set-up), but either way,at leastone or two of the VT's must be scum.
Of the power that is most likely lying, I think it is Budja, because I believe the Macho Doctors, and I believe the Gunsmith. Motion Detector could potentially be a valuable scum role to catch town power, but I would like some debate from everyone about the set-up we are in, and which powerroles are likely lying.
My proposed plan:
- We lynch from the pool of claimed VT's
- Budja motion detects one of the remaining VT's at random
- Sean investigates one of the remaining VT's at random
- Snow protects Sean
- I don't know if I deserve protection as I am not confirmed. SpyreX should protect who he believes more/deems most valuable out of myself/Budja. This topic is up for discussion.
- I will investigate cruelty, Don or Wings.
I'm about to start work soon, so I will finish this post when I get back, which will feature the consequences of my plan, possible mafia powers and some other scenarios I've thought of. Hopefully there is enough here to talk about while I am away though - looking forward to everyone elses thoughts.-
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Hoopla
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When you have time, why don't you tell us what you think of all the claims? So far, you've attacked me for my interpretation of SpyreX's claim, while discarding what he is as irrelevant, and now you are using your limited time to ask others what they think instead of offering your own thoughts.cruelty wrote:5 power roles in a 12 player game seems like a lot to me...
What do you think about Hoopla's claim?Budja wrote:I feel it likely I am the last PR
Don't have time to talk about anything else, I have to work (on a holiday, sigh, but time and a half, yeah!).
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I agree with the initial thought though, that 5 powerroles seems high, but when you consider what each of them actually do, the only one that has any real power is the gunsmith. The two doctors can save a kill, but can't be protected, the motion detector isn't really that useful and my role is searching for just one player. Assuming a 3 scum game, it's hard to balance the game with any less than 4 of these roles, due to them all being relatively weak.
So, if we are to assume it's likely that 0 or 1 of the powerroles are lying, it is more beneficial to lynch from the pool of vanillas by sheer virtue of having a likely higher concentration of scum. Also, leaving all the powerroles alive until night means we get more nightchoice interaction, which is a benefit to the town tomorrow. If most of the powerclaims are true, it also means scum will probably be forced to shoot from that pool of players to avoid leaving too much prob-innocents in endgame.
A potential roleblocker for scum is something to worry about, but it doesn't make sense to leave Sean alive if they were capable of blocking Snow and killing Sean. This would incriminate Snow the next day for failing to save Sean, and they don't run the risk of being caught with a gun. This means scum probably don't have roleblocker as their power, unless Sean is scum himself.
I think a godfather/priest (something investigation immune) might be an option. But if there is an SK, he is probably more likely to get that perk over the mafia team. That seems kind of bastardly as a mod to give someone a gunfinding role if it can only find 1/3 or 2/4 of the scum. So, I think the scum must have some other power like a rolecop or even Budja's role makes sense as a scum power.
I think if other people suspect Budja as the lying powerrole, we have a way of potentially catching him or proving him innocent. Here is a refined plan;
1) Lynch one of cruelty or Wings
2) SpyreX flips a coin. Either protects me or stays home.
3) Budja motion detects SpyreX
4) Snow protects Sean
5) Sean investigates Budja
6) Hoopla investigates the other of cruelty/Wings
If Budja doesn't die, then he has to claim what SpyreX did, and then be cleared by Sean.
This has a 50% chance of catching him out if he lied about his role (if SpyreX lives), and 100% chance of catching him if Sean isn't scum and mafia don't have a RB/GF. I've described why all of those situations are unlikely, so this is why I think the results for this particular set of interactions might actually prove/disprove someone.
Because if Budja is in fact town, it means scum will NK him tonight or have to put up with a confirmed innocent tomorrow, which then forces their kill the next night. So, we can either catch Budja as scum, or use him as NK bait. Thoughts on this use of night choices?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
This seems to be the basis of the case against me, as far as I can tell, so I should point out that SK tells and mafia tells are generally different. Here is a rough idea of my thought process N1;Cuetlachtli wrote:Hoopla ISO 27
She publicizes that she doesn't want to lynch DJ and Sotty. In other words, she doesn't find them scummy.
Yet...
Hoopla ISO 48
She chooses to "Investigate" Sotty. Quite a contradiction in reasoning from my point of view.
DisgruntledSean -Claimed gunsmith
Snow White -Claimed Doctor
SpyreX -Softclaimed some sort of powerrole
cruelty -Deemed unlikely because of how aggressive he was at times. SK's play for themself and getting tangled up in heated debates isn't a brilliant longterm survival strategy
Riddick -Was quite aggressive like cruelty which seems like a non SK play.
WingsOWisdom -Possible, but a newer player. I thought I'd be able to read him easier later in the game.
TeWuicah -Possible, but a newer player who I thought I could read easier later in the game.
don_johnson -Possible, but didn't think it was likely we had the SK so close to lynch, and then don coming in would play so naturally.
Budja -Potential SK, flew under the radar, but the last game as town with him he was like this. Also was possibly in the spotlight the next day, so it might not be a worthwhile investigation if he was a chance of being lynched and wasn't the SK.
Sotty -Possible, also flew under the radar like Budja, despite reading relatively town. By sheer virtue of limited other options, Sotty was a favourable choice.
~~
The next question is this;
Which I also use a similar process of elimination for. When you have a significant chunk of prob-townies and partially cleared by other role townies, it really does narrow down the options. I believe the optimum play is to take all the powerroles into night, which by default means lynching from the pool of vanillas. The general town consensus is that at most 1 powerrole is lying which would mean at least 2 mafia are amongst the Vanillas and maybe an SK.Cuetlachtli wrote: Hoopla your up first. Why is Cruelty so scummy to you?
Lets look at what we actually have left;
Snow - Claimed Macho Doctor
Spyre - Claimed Macho Doctor
Sean - Claimed Gunsmith
Hoopla - Claimed FBI Agent
Budja - Claimed Motion Detector
Cue - VT, went nowhere last night
Don - VT, doesn't have a gun
Sotty - VT, is not an SK
cruelty - VT
Wings - VT
The top three are roundly believed to be true, so we use this as the base to work around. If there is a gunsmith, doesn't it seem weird to not have a scum role (SK) immune to it's powers or a false identity (FBI)? How often do you see a cop these days with out some sort of GF or role that dillutes results?
If my claim is true, it means it is likely there is an SK in the game, which I think is narrowed down to cruelty, Don or Wings.
If people believe that only one powerrole is lying, then it means there are two mafia amongst the vanillas, which give good odds for cruelty, Wings or Sotty.
I am choosing to lynch someone that overlaps with possible SK and possible mafia. The only other candidate with this makeup is Wings. I will post a summary of why cruelty is overall scummier than Wings after I address a couple more points.
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Well, going by my plan here, we prove/disprove Budja as town or scum. Would you like to use the gun investigation on Sotty instead? This would fully prove her as town if she doesn't have a gun, or prove her as mafia if she does have one.Cuetlachtli wrote: Now take a moment to think for a second. Assuming we are in the 3:9 setup rather than the 3:1:8 setup, then we are one miss lynch away from MYLO.
10 total: 7 town vs 3 scum
miss lynch + 1 doc dies
8 total: 5 town vs 3 scum
MYLO so NL + last doc dies
7 total: 4 town vs 3 scum
This means, you get a shot at your Hoopla/Sotty theory. A cruelty lynch, Wings/Don investigation gives me a good chance at finding an SK. If Sotty comes up gunless, your theory is binned and we assess from there. If Sotty has a gun, hey, we have a scum lynch and proper leads!
SpyreX can protect Sotty so she stays alive, and I am exposed to an SK kill who presumably wouldn't risk leaving me alive. I can absorb that kill.
If I am mafia, this plan does not benefit me either. You know that you/Don are not my partners. Snow, Spyre, Sean almost certainly are town. I am prepared to get Sotty investigated over Budja. And lynch one of cruelty/Wings today. Where are my two partners?
Seriously, I commend your paranoia and like that we finally have some debate about what set-up we're in, but I think you're suspicious of me just because I am trying to craft a plan that controls everyone's actions. This is true, but I am trying to improve town odds. I hope this compromise shows I am, because it incorporates your concerns into our plan, rather than it being all my decision. What do you think?-
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Hoopla
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I think this is more a personality tell than anything. I really enjoy the logic puzzle aspect of mafia, because results are closer to black and white than any debating about psychology can get to. I don't always play this way, mostly because most games don't feature coordinating night actions and making longterm plans (especially not normal games anyway) - Day 2 massclaim is uncommon.cruelty wrote: No.. I'm suspicious of you because of.. well, I said why in day 1. My iso 24. Youstillhaven't voted with any solid scumreads; you're not actually scumhunting, you're playing the numbers game and hoping something falls out. I really, really dislike this - there's no analysis of posts, there's no offence, there's just you trying to take control of town and make sure that we do what you want us to do. Yeah, the logic of what you're proposing is fairly solid, but it's also a nice way for scum to get rid of an innocent (then tomorrow it's oops, must be the other one!), whilst having a good grasp on who is doing what tonight. dislike.
The way some players try to improve town's chances at winning is through debate about psychology, scumtells and other forms of logic. The way I try to improve town's chances of winning is by finding a strategy that manipulates role interactions and gives us confirmed information. Confirmed alignments (especially alive ones) are golden information and I would rather try and produce this, than play mafia the way others are used to/like playing it. I know players like Sotty don't like the logic puzzle aspect of the game, and I understand that, but Day 2 massclaim means we have a much better chance of catching scum through nightchoices and process of elimination. Why deal in subjective when you have objective on offer?
Anyway, I am prepared to comply and offer subjective views on who is scummy (I have a post in the works on cruelty), but I thought I should at least express why I like to play the numbers game. SpyreX should know this from how I played his Pick Your Power game, which involved similar logic puzzles.-
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Hoopla
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Those are some crazy assumptions you're making there. You're right insofar as there areCuetlachtli wrote:Some of you think we are going to "break the game" by giving the PRs assignments tonight. Given the number of claimed PRs, has it occurred to any of you that the scum have PRs that are relatively equal to our own PRs? Maybe they have investigation immune roles or even disruptive roles like a "bus driver."
Ok lets assume that Sean is a Gun Smith, Sotty is a goon, Hoopla is a bus driver, and DJ is a goon. Since DJ was the only scum to get any pressure during Day 1, the scum team figure he is the most likely person to get investigated so Hoopla drives DJ and SW. Sean happens to investigate DJ, but doesn't find a gun because DJ was driven. Now the town assumes DJ is inno.
Now lets use the same assumptions and plug them into Hoopla's plan for tonight. We lynch Cruelty and he flips town. Now its Night 2. Following the plan, Sean chooses to investigate Sotty. Knowing who Sean is going to investigate, Hoopla drives Sotty and WoW. As a result, Sean finds no gun on Sotty and the town automatically assumes that WoW is scum due to POE.
Sorry guys, but I am afraid we can't "break the game." I think its time we all got off our asses and started scum hunting.
Scum hunting > PRs any day of the week.noguarentees when it comes to playing the numbers game - there will always be an outside chance of an unseen situation coming into fruition. But you make scumhunting out to be an unrivaled alternate that produces constant accurate results, which is not true at all. Whatever way we play the game, we are always taking chances - always playing against the unknown, and at the end of the day there is only so much 'scumhunting' can do to improve your chances of lynching correctly.
We have the same goal - improve town's chances of lynching correctly. I am choosing to go about it in a way that uses every piece of information we have to attempt to prove/disprove players. You are going about it in a way where you are using whatever tells you've learnt, and sticking to them over much more substancial evidence. A prime example of this is the continuing suspicion of Don, who has no gun. You can cook up all sorts of longshot theories to dispute this, but chances are he is not mafia. I rate these chances much better than any scumhunting can produce.
I understand you are worried about night actions and whatnot, but being paranoid to the point of completely discounting them is ridiculous. Powerroles are in the game to help us confirm scum/town, not so you can go 'well maybe there's a busdriver or something'. It sounds like you're trying to weasel out of what the results have produced so far, because they don't fit your personal theories.
I have compromised and suggested Sean investigating Sotty, as you are worried about a Hoopla/Sotty scumteam - but if you seriously want to discount all the information night actions have produced/will produce, tell me now so I can push for your lynch.-
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Hoopla
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This is my ~traditional scumhunting~ post for cruelty and cue or whoever I promised it to. Please note this post is devoid of evidence regarding claims and results, and just focuses on the RAW FAX
1. The way the DisgruntledSean's wagon fizzled out upsets me, because his play indicates active lurking scum. I wonder why that happened, oh well.
2. The speedlynch just before deadline on Sidekick was poor and probably scum motivated to protect one of cruelty, Snow or don who were the other potential lynch candidates.
3. DisgrustledSean again has been active lurking and giving us nothing posts throughout D2 - infact he's really only been here for his result claims (but lets not talk about that).
4. SpyreX has been feeling quite town, I don't like the buddying with Snow late on Day 1, especially when Snow was a hot candidate for lynch. I wonder what he is basing his reasoning on for this.
5.
Okay this is getting real old real fast.-
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Hoopla
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1. By my count, I only called her town once, which was in post 63.Cuetlachtli wrote:Here are some FACTS Hoopla:
1. You have said Sotty is town on numerous occasions.
2. You have even "coached" her. When Iceman (DJ) was put at L-1 by Cruelty, you suggested that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently did. [Page 9, Post 215]
3. Your justification for voting Sotty is that she "flew under the radar." Sotty has been on every major lynch wagon except the SW one. How is that flying under the radar?
4. Sotty is perfectly content with following your lead today. She isn't even slightly skeptical of your alignment or that your plans could be an act of deception.
2. How is it coaching? If anything, it is mild suspicion for a weird action, which I point out;
Unless you're going to explain how me coaching a player from 2005 from one prob-town's wagon to another town wagon makes sense, your point isn't substancial.Hoopla wrote:
What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?Sotty7 wrote:Ugh... Don't like that vote.
Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?
Also:
Very much this.WingsOWisdom wrote:It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.
It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.Whyam I more likely to be scum because of this? Don't just put coaching in inverted commas and expect it to explain itself.
3. Flying under the radar is more attributed to playstyle and posting frequency, than wagon stances imo. But you can have that point.
4. Sure she has - she thinks I'm potentially an SK.
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If you can't get me or Sotty lynched today, do you think it is worth using our nightactions (gunsmith) on Sotty to attempt to credit/discredit your theory? Because if you are going to discount nightactions as wifom and prone to extreme manipulation, I'd rather go with my plan to prove/disprove Budja. Your call.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
You say this as if I was always a badass scumhunter.SpyreX wrote:I'd much rather see the ye ol fahsioned Hoopla-huntin' on the VT's honestly.
My line of thinking is;
1. I am not lynching any powerrole today, as these roles are more likely to be true than VT's. If anyone wants to dispute this point, they need to come up with a scenario that involves 2 or more of the powerroles as scum. If this isn't plausible, we have a much higher chance of lynching scum in the VT's.
2. I am not lynching Don. He does not have a gun. Mafia members usually have guns. It is not worth wasting a lynch on him out of paranoia, because we only get 1-2 more mislynches.
3. I am not lynching Cue. He did not go anywhere last night. He could be a goon that didn't perform a kill, but again, this is unlikely and not worth wasting a lynch on. His attack on me also feels quite town.
4. I am not lynching Sotty, because if there is an SK, it is not her. She still has a decent chance of being scum due to the limited places they could be, but I'd rather lynch someone who has a chance of being SK or mafia.
5. That leaves Wings or cruelty.
6. At the end of Day 1, I put my vote on cruelty when we were scrambling for a lynch on the basis that I thought all those suspecting him were pro-town. I feel similarly now, with myself and Don and Snow being advocates for his lynch. Also, the main wagons on D1 were Don, Snow, Sean, Sidekick (all town it seems) - I think it is suspicious how the potential cruelty wagon was quashed in favour of the other options we pursued that day.
Wings is lurking, which I don't like, but I feel similarly to SpyreX in regards to cruelty's 485. It sounds like scum flailing, pissed off because he is the best lynch without doing anything wrong. I've also had games where I've been busted by a lucky investigation or something else I had no control over, and you feel cheated. I don't know. It doesn't seem like a town reaction.
I heavily endorse competing wagons for today though between Wings and cruelty, as I think this could be worthwhile information later in the game when we have more flips. I'm in favour of cruelty, though.-
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Hoopla
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