Mini 932: Let's all be friends (Over)

[Cuetlachtli]

/confirm

Sup guys. Give me a day or two to get caught up with the reading. Don't expect an opinion from me until I have done all the reading!

[Cuetlachtli]

Errrr.......hey!

So I haven't finished reading yet, but while I am reading I want to do some speculating about the setup.

Now I have only played 2 games on this site, 1 newbie and 1 mini normal like this one.

I am going to assume that each mini normal game, except ones with Serial Killers, have three scum bags in them. If that is the case, if all three scum bags are powerless goons, is it safe to assume that the town consists of vanillas? If a goon army can safely assume that they are facing a vanilla team, wouldn't there be added incentive for the scum bags to fake claim knowing that they won't get counter-claimed?

I guess what I am trying to get at is can we completely trust Spy, SW's, and DS's PR claims right now?

I have noticed that some of you have played 20+ games on this site so your experience would greatly be appreciated in answering my question.

[Cuetlachtli]

that hurts hoopla
i went into this blind, don't have time for the hours and hours of research to be up to speed at the moment

i investigated DJ, and got no gun

That is interesting because DJ is my number 1 FOS since there were many instances of possible "deflection" during the Iceman wagon. I think its possible that DJ could be a godfather-like role like a "Gun Inventor," thus the added incentive for scum to protect him.

[Cuetlachtli]

Cue:

Are you saying you disbelieve the report because Sean is scum?
Or are you saying you disbelieve the report because DJ is a Godfather?

Eh...unless someone else claims a PR, I am going to assume that you, SW, and Sean are legit town.

That said, I think DJ could be a possible Godfather-type role based on what could have been "deflection" tactics during the Iceman wagon.

Does that make sense Spy?

[Cuetlachtli]

I am a lowly vanilla, but I will save my thoughts until after everyone claims.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hey!

So I am actually happy with all the claims because they support my suspicions from my Day 1 readings. During Day 1, I felt the Iceman (DJ) wagon was stalled by some players who favored the DS wagon. Having known the results of Day 1, the inaction on the Iceman (DJ) wagon felt extra scummy since that was the only wagon that didn't get pushed towards a role claim. As soon as DJ replaced in, the Iceman (DJ) wagon dissipated as though everyone forgot about Iceman's major contradiction early on about his Riddick vote. You would think, given the circumstances and the culture of this particular player pool, that the Iceman wagon would have at least been pushed to a role claim rather than be shifted to two other players--SW and Sidekick. That is why I think DJ could be a possible "Scum Investigation-Immune Role."

Moving on...

The person claiming a PR today that I am most inclined to distrust is Hoopla. She was actually on my scum list before the claim and the person she choose to investigate was also on my scum list lol. As it turns out, all three scummies are teaming up on Cruelty right now! Lets look at the facts...

Hoopla ISO 27

She publicizes that she doesn't want to lynch DJ and Sotty. In other words, she doesn't find them scummy.

Yet...

Hoopla ISO 48

She chooses to "Investigate" Sotty. Quite a contradiction in reasoning from my point of view.

Hoopla ISO 25

Hoopla exclaims that DJ "has really lit up the Iceman slot with the townie goodness," even though DJ has only been in the game a short while and all of his content has been focused on Cruelty, Cruelty's RVS vote non the less. Now everybody ask yourself, is tunneling a town tell or a null tell, especially given the circumstances of the tunnel? Is Hoopla really justified in making this assumption? IMO, that tunnel alone was a null tell. The future buddying of Hoopla and DJ and their mutual attack on Cruelty is a scum tell to me.

More on the Hoopla-Sotty Hypo-Scum Team...

Hoopla ISO 3

Undermines practically everyone's reasoning, except for Sotty who she later suggests is town, even though you guys were only in the RVS...

Hoopla ISO 18

or Page 9

Looks like Hypo-scum Hoopla is coaching hypo-scum Sotty, pushing her to switch her vote from Iceman to DS. Subsequently, Sotty does, in fact, switch to DS.

Sotty all of Day 2

or ISO's 25, 29-31

Sotty basically goes along with everything Hoopla has said on Day 2.

Which brings me to my next point...

[Cuetlachtli]

Chapter 2: Insidious Plans

It was pretty inconvenient to the mafia for the all of the PR's to claim today, especially since two Macho Docs compliment a Gunsmith very nicely, lessening the chance that any of those claims could be a red herring. So since three players out of the ten remaining players are basically cleared, the mafia is faced with a huge dilemma. Claim VT and be sorted into the pool of VT's waiting to get policy lynched, or gambit and fake claim a PR while trying to "clear" your buddies.

Now lets assume DS, SW, and Spy are who they say they are and Hoopla and Sotty are a scum team. Also, lets assume that WoW and cruelty are town. Now lets look at Hoopla's plan for today and tonight:

Hoopla is assuming we are in a 3:1:8 setup and all claimed PR's are town. Since there is a quote unquote SK, Hoopla focuses her hunt on a potential SK rather than the mafia. That said, the pool of "lynchables" is...

WoW, Cruelty, Cue (Me), and DJ

*Though Sotty is a VT, she is excluded from Hoopla's pool of "lynchables" since he isn't the "SK."

Since DJ and I were "cleared" by the PR's, that leaves WoW and Cruelty.

Now take a moment to think for a second. Assuming we are in the 3:9 setup rather than the 3:1:8 setup, then we are one miss lynch away from MYLO.

10 total: 7 town vs 3 scum

miss lynch + 1 doc dies

8 total: 5 town vs 3 scum

MYLO so NL + last doc dies

7 total: 4 town vs 3 scum

LYLO

If Hoopla is in fact scum, then her policy lynch based on POE scheme would take us to MYLO while avoiding any scrutiny on her hypo-scum buddies.

Having said all of that, I would really like to test my Hoopla-Sotty scum buddy theory. Since there is potential that Hoopla isn't lying, I am going to vote Sotty based on Hoopla's apparent buddying of her. I guess what it boils down to is my skepticism that Hoopla actually investigated her based on various times throughout the game where she publicized a town read of Scotty.

so...

vote: Sotty

[Cuetlachtli]

People i dont like:
TeWuicah

Hey I don't mind if you don't like me but I replaced that dude. You can call me Cue for short.

[Cuetlachtli]

Vote Count No. 13: End of Day One

don_johnson (1) - DisgruntledSean
DisgruntledSean (3) - WingsOWisdom, Sidekick, TeWuicah

Sidekick (7) - Budja, Spyrex, Snow White, Hoopla, Riddick, Sotty7, don_johnson

Snow White (1) - Cruelty

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

Sidekick, a vanilla townie, has been lynched. Send in night actions. Night will last 72 hours.

Deadline

Something I forgot to add. Look at the ppl who voted to lynch Sidekick. Notice that 4 out of the 5 claimed PRs were part of that bandwagon. If anyone is skeptical about any of the claimed PRs, this is the wagon to look at. Why? Because FMPOV, it was ill-conceived and rushed, so it is likely that scummies were involved in it. In fact, I am willing to bet money that at least one of the scummies was part of that wagon.

[Cuetlachtli]

You're reaching Cuet. I have already aired my gut check of Hoop being a possible SK herself.

I have gone along with Hoop

and

Spy who seem to be doing the "lets break the game deal." I don't like this part of mafia really and I'm not too happy having it happen in what is supposed to be a normal game.

I also notice you don't have anything to say about the possible night choices Hoop laid out, so that means you are fine with them as well right?

If not speak up please.

Well of course you don't like this since I am voting you!

The night choices depend on what you flip. If you flip scum, then the PRs should obviously be on Hoopla. If you flip town, then we should follow Hoopla's plan to investigate Budja.

[Cuetlachtli]

Cue I like your gusto. I think its ok though as it sits.

You mean you are content following hypo-FBI Agent and her hypo scum buddys Sotty and DJ as they push for a hypo-miss lynch of Cruelty based on POE when said hypo-FBI Agent isn't even clear?

I dunno bout you guys, but I don't want to invest in a RL based solely on POE determined by an unclear. I think we need more substantial discussion of why Cruelty is "scummy" before we all sheep.

We have 10 days.

Hoopla your up first. Why is Cruelty so scummy to you?

[Cuetlachtli]

You're reaching Cuet. I have already aired my gut check of Hoop being a possible SK herself.

I have gone along with Hoop

and

Spy who seem to be doing the "lets break the game deal." I don't like this part of mafia really and I'm not too happy having it happen in what is supposed to be a normal game.

I also notice you don't have anything to say about the possible night choices Hoop laid out, so that means you are fine with them as well right?

If not speak up please.

Well of course you don't like this since I am voting you!

The night choices depend on what you flip. If you flip scum, then the PRs should obviously be on Hoopla. If you flip town, then we should follow Hoopla's plan to investigate Budja.

So you just want to lynch me to make yourself feel better about Hoop's plan? That hurts man.

I say it is weak because you haven't actually picked up any scummy things myself or Hoop have done. You have just said "I see some buddying between these two so they must be scum" The only legit point you have is when Hoop pushed my vote onto Sean with her questioning. She was right to, which is why I switched. If you can explain why a) that's scummy and b) why I would need coaching in that spot, I'm all ears.

I personally don't think there has been half as much buddying between myself and hoop than there has between Spy and Hoop. Why nothing about that?

You should also take into account that mafia is a team game, even when you are a VT half of the game is figuring out who can trust and who you can't. Right now I am happy with Hoop so I am willing to go along with her plan. Sure I might be wrong, but if I am right the scum are shitting bricks because townies are working together, which is not what they want.

Why are you scummy?

• 1. Well in your ISO 6, you say Hoopla is town, while in her ISO she says your town like 3 times, which supports my scum-buddy argument.
  
  2. You have been on every major wagon.
  
  3. You didn't push DJ (Iceman) for a claim even though you pushed SW, DS, and Sidekick for claims.
  
  4. When hypo-scum buddies DJ and Hoopla attacked Cruelty, you followed suit. (This was on D1 to be exact.)
  
  5. Hypo-scum buddy Hoopla investigating you even though she has said you are town a number of times.

[Cuetlachtli]

This is all scum by association though. What individual scummy things have I done? Has Hoop done, has DJ done?

My memory tells me that DJ's slot wasn't run up to lynch-1, but I will have to look that up again to be sure. Why is calling someone town scummy?

And why are you ignoring Spy/Hoop?

If you assume that Spy and SW are Macho Docs, then there can't be a Spy/Hoop scum buddy team.

I think calling someone town with very little evidence scummy. And I find "investigating" someone you think is town very scummy!

Also, DJ was pushed to lynch-1 and then you unvoted and voted for Sean! And even though you found Ice scummy (Post Subject 216), you never returned your vote to him after Sean claimed to be a Gun Smith.

[Cuetlachtli]

Taking a break from MS for a bit. When I return I will post the scummy things that Hoopla has done.

[Cuetlachtli]

473 is poor. calling someone town with little evidence may not be "scummy" per se, but its certainly not good form. has hoopla answered the question of "why did you investigate sotty"?

1. If you can't keep up with the game because of RL, then replace out.

2. Actually Hoopla did give her reason for investigating Sotty, but of course scum don't need to read that carefully. Look up post 439.

3. And while we are at it DJ. Can you enlighten us to why you hammered Sidekick, you never gave a reason? Was it cause enough of the town supported that wagon?

4. Also, why are you voting Cruelty and why is that the best lynch right now?

5. Do you have anymore reads?

[Cuetlachtli]

Some of you think we are going to "break the game" by giving the PRs assignments tonight. Given the number of claimed PRs, has it occurred to any of you that the scum have PRs that are relatively equal to our own PRs? Maybe they have investigation immune roles or even disruptive roles like a "bus driver."

Ok lets assume that Sean is a Gun Smith, Sotty is a goon, Hoopla is a bus driver, and DJ is a goon. Since DJ was the only scum to get any pressure during Day 1, the scum team figure he is the most likely person to get investigated so Hoopla drives DJ and SW. Sean happens to investigate DJ, but doesn't find a gun because DJ was driven. Now the town assumes DJ is inno.

Now lets use the same assumptions and plug them into Hoopla's plan for tonight. We lynch Cruelty and he flips town. Now its Night 2. Following the plan, Sean chooses to investigate Sotty. Knowing who Sean is going to investigate, Hoopla drives Sotty and WoW. As a result, Sean finds no gun on Sotty and the town automatically assumes that WoW is scum due to POE.

Sorry guys, but I am afraid we can't "break the game." I think its time we all got off our asses and started scum hunting.

Scum hunting > PRs any day of the week.

[Cuetlachtli]

This just in! Nothing with what is issued out above alters "scum hunting" much - the only one that I would have CONSIDERED today realistically that I'm not is Budja.

Well SW, DJ, and Sotty aren't scum hunting. They are all just blindly voting for Cruelty.

[Cuetlachtli]

Here are some FACTS Hoopla:

1. You have said Sotty is town on numerous occasions.

2. You have even "coached" her. When Iceman (DJ) was put at L-1 by Cruelty, you suggested that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently did. [Page 9, Post 215]

3. Your justification for voting Sotty is that she "flew under the radar." Sotty has been on every major lynch wagon except the SW one. How is that flying under the radar?

4. Sotty is perfectly content with following your lead today. She isn't even slightly skeptical of your alignment or that your plans could be an act of deception.

[Cuetlachtli]

Also...Budja and WoW get your butts in here.

[Cuetlachtli]

Okay, here are your powerroles:

- 2x Macho Doctor
- 1x Gunsmith

Balance a hypothetical set-up with at least 3 scum using only these powerroles for town.

2x Goonies

1x Gun Inventor


For the record, I think we are in a 3:9 setup and I do find it improbable that there are more than three town PRs. That said, the supposed SK could have no killed, shot Riddick, or shot SW. So Hoopla, if you are scum, that was a pretty good fake claim.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hoopla ISO 27

Open to lynching:

Cruelty, Snow White, Budja

Not Open to lynching:

DisgrustledSean, don_johnson,

Sotty7

, Riddick

Only if necessary:

Sidekick, WingsOWisdom, TeWuicah, SpyreX

"Not Open to lynching" means "I think they are town." So that is two times you said Sotty was town. Once at the start of the day and once towards the end of the day. You would think that you wouldn't investigate someone who you thought was town the whole game...

[Cuetlachtli]

Here are some FACTS Hoopla:

1. You have said Sotty is town on numerous occasions.

2. You have even "coached" her. When Iceman (DJ) was put at L-1 by Cruelty, you suggested that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently did. [Page 9, Post 215]

3. Your justification for voting Sotty is that she "flew under the radar." Sotty has been on every major lynch wagon except the SW one. How is that flying under the radar?

4. Sotty is perfectly content with following your lead today. She isn't even slightly skeptical of your alignment or that your plans could be an act of deception.

1. By my count, I only called her town once, which was in post 63.

2. How is it coaching? If anything, it is mild suspicion for a weird action, which I point out;

Ugh... Don't like that vote.

Cruelty what do you think about Sean? I did a quick look over your ISO and I don't see you mentioning him. Where is Ice on your suspect list?

Also:

It seems like DisgruntledSean is stretching to find reasons to find IcemanE scummy.

Very much this.

What don't you like about it exactly? It obviously isn't bad enough to make you question your read on Iceman, and remove your own vote - so why mention it?

It looks like you're shaping to jump ship to DisgruntledSean, but then....you don't.

Unless you're going to explain how me coaching a player from 2005 from one prob-town's wagon to another town wagon makes sense, your point isn't substancial.

Why

am I more likely to be scum because of this? Don't just put coaching in inverted commas and expect it to explain itself.

3. Flying under the radar is more attributed to playstyle and posting frequency, than wagon stances imo. But you can have that point.

4. Sure she has - she thinks I'm potentially an SK.

~~

If you can't get me or Sotty lynched today, do you think it is worth using our nightactions (gunsmith) on Sotty to attempt to credit/discredit your theory? Because if you are going to discount nightactions as wifom and prone to extreme manipulation, I'd rather go with my plan to prove/disprove Budja. Your call.

2. If you are part of hypo-scum team Hoopla, Sotty, and DJ; then the posts that I pointed out looks like Sotty attempting to deflect attention away from DJ and you suggesting, in a discreet fashion, that Sotty switch to Sean, which she subsequently does! In order for this hypo-scum team theory to not have any weight to me, I need to know Sotty's alignment.

*Note, experience or age does not exempt a player from being coached by a less experienced or younger player. IMO, strong leadership qualities out-weigh experience or age.

4. She said you could be SK after you proposed that there is a SK. IMO, this could be distancing.


About the night actions, I am not too concerned with them right now. I actually wouldn't mine an semi-uncoordinated approach to the night where each PR chooses to investigate at his own discretion. This could help prevent some WIFOM. Of course, we would still have to coordinate who our docs protect.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hoopla, the more times you repeat something, the more likely someone is to remember it. If something happens to me (get NKed or replaceout) I want people to remember my arguments today and consider a Hoopla-Sotty-DJ scum team later on.

In a past game I was in, I speculated about a possible scum team on Day 1, which turned out to actually be the scum team! Unfortunately, the scum killed me Night 1 and the town forgot about my arguments, so we ended up losing.

Look, Hoopla, do you even for one second consider lynching Sotty?


Also, does anybody else feel its weird that half the town (Spy, SW, Budja, Hoopla, Sotty) is calling me town even though my predecessors lurked/were inactive and my hypo-scum team theory is deemed to be "out there?"

[Cuetlachtli]

What's the point in doing

any

actions at night if you're going to IGNORE RESULTS. DJ HAS NO GUN. Stop trying to put suspicion on him. That is such a longshot it's not funny.

You don't think there is any possibility that Sean's report was manipulated or DJ is immune to investigations?

Are you suggesting that DJ is clear and that he now has the green light to act how ever he wants, including not giving any reasons for his last three votes?

If every PR is legit, don't you think the scum also have PRs capable of deceiving the town's PRs?

Or do you think we are facing a goon army?

[Cuetlachtli]

I don't mind if you two insult me, I am still going to keep asking legitimate questions.

AGAIN

Hoopla or anyone:

What do you think of DJ not giving any reasons for his last three votes?

1. Hammer on Sidekick

2. Vote on SW at beginning of Day 2

3. Vote on Cruelty after Hoopla's Day2/Night2 plan

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok lets reevaluate Hoopla's plan:

Clear:

Hoopla (FBI Agent)

Semi-Clear:

Cuetlachtli (Didn't visit last night)

Don_Johnson (Doesn't have a gun)

Least Suspicious PR claims:

DisgruntledSean (Gun Smith)

Spyrex (Macho Doc)

Snow White (Macho Doc)

Most Suspicious PR claim:

Budja (Motion Detector)

Don't want to lynch today:

Sotty (Not SK)

Lynchable today:

WingsOWisdom

Cruelty


So...

Hoopla, DJ, Cue, Sean, SW, Spy are town in Hoopla's eyes ATM

and

Budja, WoW, Cruelty, Sotty are scum/SK in Hoopla's eyes ATM

because we are in a 3:1:8 setup

in other words, there are FOUR baddies.


If this is the case Hoopla, then you may have already broken the game!

So why don't you put your money where your mouth is and vote Sotty since she has to be scum based on process of elimination?

[Cuetlachtli]

just for shits and giggles, can someone tell me why there is all this talk about a possible sk?

Because Hoopla claims she is a FBI Agent and Serial Killer is the counterpart to that role.

In other words...

FBI Agent's sole purpose is to find the Serial Killer so Hoopla is assuming that there is a Serial Killer.

[Cuetlachtli]

Also in your little thing up there, I should be in the semi clear section no? Seeing as I am not the SK as per Hoops deal. You are also putting words in Hoop's mouth and have for some time now, it is getting beyond silly.

Well since I didn't do anything last night according to Budja, I am clear of any PR (unless I am a Serial Killer and I no killed per Hoopla's suggestion).

Since DJ doesn't have a gun, he can't be scum (unless he is immune to investigations or the scum disrupted Sean's investigation).

You are not the Serial Killer per Hoopla's report.

Since Cruelty and WoW are the only people not "cleared," they must be some form of baddy (according to Hoopla's logic). But since there has to be at least three baddies, you should be one of the scums (if no one is lying about their role and investigations).

So since 1 of you 3 are baddies, I think we should lynch you first because of my aforementioned theory.

But since Hoopla is trying to protect her hypo-scum buddy^allegedly, she continues to dismiss this lynch option even though we would be getting a scum and it could possibly clear her.

I don't think your semi-clear at all. Maybe quarter-clear...lol

[Cuetlachtli]

We could even be playing in a 2:1:9 or even 3:9 if my role is a curveball.

Would you be upset if cruelty was lynched today? What if he flips scum? Would that be enough to bin your theory?

Nice disclaimers. Are you going to refer back to those if Cruelty or WoW flip town later?

Would I be upset if Cruelty was lynched today?

Yes! I think Sotty is the best lynch today.

If Cruelty flips scum, I will reevaluate the game, but the Hoopla-Sotty hypo-scum team theory won't be shot down.

[Cuetlachtli]

I posted this earlier, but didn't get a response.

What do you guys think of DJ not giving any reasons for his last three votes?

1. Hammer on Sidekick

2. Vote on SW at beginning of Day 2

3. Vote on Cruelty after Hoopla's Day2/Night2 plan

[Cuetlachtli]

(Answer: It almost seems too easy (logic makes perfect sense + knowing I'm town means he's even more likely to be scum), which is making me hesitate).

WoW, since you "know that you are town," then a combination of Cruelty, one or more of the PRs, and all of the players cleared by reports could be scum. In other words, if you are actually town, it means a handful of people are lying! This strengthens my argument that we are being deceived into thinking that we HAVE to lynch either WoW or Cruelty because they are the only two players "not cleared."

Thus, I implore that everyone at least reevaluate their convictions, suspicions, and "town reads." Please try to make an educated decision rather than vote solely based on Process of Elimination.

[Cuetlachtli]

Cue what happens next when I flip town as far as your theory goes?

What are the pros and cons to no lynching today? I have thought about this a few times and the con is obviously lack of lynch information from the flip, but this game seems to be weighing heavily on night actions now so I'd thought I'd throw the idea out there and see what others thought.

My theory goes kaput if you flip town.

Now whether or not to NL...

3:9 setup no lynch

Today NL

Tomorrow = 3:6

ML

3:4

3:9 setup with lynch

Today ML

Tomorrow = 3:5

NL

3:4

3:1:8 setup with no lynch

Today NL

Tomorrow = 3:1:4

or

2:1:5

or

3:5

3:1:8 setup with lynch

Today lynch = 3:1:5

or

3:0:6

or

2:1:6


I don't think lynching or no lynching would make much a difference in a standard 3 scum, 9 town setup. But since we have a possible SK, I think we are better off lynching someone today.

[Cuetlachtli]

I have no idea what point you're trying to make.

My point is that both Cruelty and you could be town, and this whole plan masterminded by Hoopla could be a clever ruse to get us to miss lynch you guys.

Plug in these hypo-scum teams yourself:

Hoopla-Sotty-DJ

or

Budja- Cuetlachtli-DJ

or

Budja-Hoopla-Sotty

etc. etc.

All I ask is that you keep this in mind if one of you flips town since Cruelty and I are basically the only ones against this "policy lynch."

[Cuetlachtli]

Can you explain to me how you missed hoopla's claim and the subsequent numerous discussions regarding night actions/people being cleared etc?

my grandmother passed away. i was busy for a few days and when i returned there was a bunch of tl;dr type posts.

cue: care to explain what is wrong with any of my votes?

sidekick wagon needed a hammer. wasn't my first choice for day 1.

sw: snow white claimed "doc" and survived the night. i laid out my suspicions of her slot on day 1.

cruelty: also, suspicion from day 1

theres no real "inconsistency". as soon as general consensus seemed to clear snow and show little support for her wagon i moved to a perfectly viable suspect.

i have no issues with moving to wow or sotty if need be. but i want to lynch cruelty.

do you have questions for me?

Just about all this stuff you are suspicious of happened in the RVS or the period in between RVS and your entrance into the game. A lot has happened since than.

I dunno if you are just a half-ass player or you are scum looking for an excuse to vote for someone.

What I do know is that you have really slowed your play down since Ice's lynch wagon dissipated. It makes me wonder if your play on Day 1 was solely intended to diffuse the wagon on you. Now that you have been "cleared," you seem like you are coasting and you don't seem that interested in finding the scum.

If you want me to believe that you are town, you need to post more frequently and your posts should have fresh insights into the game.

[Cuetlachtli]

I will tell you what I think after all the reports are out.

[Cuetlachtli]

I will tell you what I think after all the reports are out.

I want to know now before you have the benefit of more information.

Fine

Even though there is a SK and you claimed FBI Agent, you aren't 100% clear. Yesterday, I thought it was weird that Snow White didn't die since she claimed doc. At first I assumed that we were in a 3:9 setup and the mafia was trying to frame Snow White by keeping her alive. Now that Cruelty has flipped SK and Spy is a confirmed macho doc, I think its highly likely that Cruelty killed Riddick and the mafia attempted to kill SW on night 1, but failed since Spy said he protected SW.

That said, FBI Agent is a low risk claim since hypo-scum you knows from the night kills that there is either a SK or 2nd scum team.

[Cuetlachtli]

I'm not claiming to be cleared - but the fact there is an SK in this set-up makes me more likelier to be town than if there wasn't an SK. Also, Snow is a Macho Doctor, which means she can't be protected.

Who's the scumteam Cue?

I just looked at Spy's ISO 49 where he states that Macho doc's can't be protected. Well there goes that theory.

In that case, I would say that at least 2/3 of the WoW, Sotty, Don VT pool are scum and 1/2 of the DS, Budja PR pool are scum.

But I still think there is a slight chance you can still be scum, Hoopla.

[Cuetlachtli]

Alright I like how both of you investigated Sotty last nite. Now while I reevaluate everyone's iso, I would like to question and clarify some of the game mechanics.

1. How does the Night Kill work? Do the mafia pick 1 person out of the 2/3 to commit the crime?

2. How can 2 scum: 1 serial killer: 9 town (5 power role) setup be balanced? What about a 3 scum: 1 serial killer: 8 town (5 power role)? What roles do the scum need to have for these two setups to be balanced?

That is all I have at the moment.

[Cuetlachtli]

I targeted Sotty.
No movement.

I would guess that Hoopla is only scum given a two-player scumteam. (given balance). So I'm not interested in lynching her today.
For the same balance reasons, I think DS is v. v. likely town.
With the SK down, don is v. likely town.
Snow is cleared as it gets.

ATM I'm most happy with lynching Wings with Sotty #2.
Cuetlachtli and Hoopla are the other poss. scum by elimination.

Also waiting on DS's result.

Look at post 583.

DS investigated Sotty and didn't find a gun on her.

[Cuetlachtli]

unvote, vote: hoopla

odd man out. motion detector/gunsmith/2 macho doc is quite possible. fbi? come on.

All of these Power Roles were claimed yesterday and yet you sheeped Hoopla the whole day. Why the change of heart now?

[Cuetlachtli]

Hoopla, what was your night action last night?

[Cuetlachtli]

I kinda feel like the two hypo-scum teams I am imagining right now, Budja-WoW and Hoopla-DJ-(Sotty), are doing some distancing. Budja and WoW have openly said that they are down to lynch the other. DJ has brought up points against Hoopla that should have been issues yesterday, yet he did not question Hoopla at all yesterday and was even one of the first dudes to support Hoopla's plan. Also, the Hoopla-Sotty love affair maintains the course it has been following since RVS.

I think the biggest crux in the Hoopla-DJ-Sotty hypo-scum team is the fact that Cruelty was actually the SK! How could Hoopla possibly know that there was a SK in the game?

The only 2 possibilities I can see a Hypo-Scum Hoopla figuring out that Cruelty is a SK are....

1. Hoopla is a mafia role cop and investigated Cruelty on N1

2. Hoopla and the other scum dubiously opted to kill Cruelty instead of SW and a bullet hit Cruelty's vest. The Riddick kill and Cruelty's subsequent VT claim told veteran Hoopla that Cruelty was probably a SK and she exploited this situation accordingly.

I think 1 is possible and 2 is idiotic. The is no logical reason why the scum would target Cruelty over a PR.

I am going to have to reread Day 1 and see if I can find any soft tells that Hoopla is a FBI agent. o_O

[Cuetlachtli]

@Cue, Possibility 3 is the scum attempted to kill someone else who was protected and cruelty succeeded in his kill.

This point is moot since Spy attempted to save SW.

[Cuetlachtli]

Does this mean you are finally dropping this theory?

Not quite. There is one other possibility that I thought of today.

Hoopla is mafia role cop and investigated Cruelty. Then, Hoopla and her cronies decided to get cute and kill Riddick instead of SW in order to frame her. Cruelty either failed by NKing or shot Riddick too. Since Hoopla knows that Cruelty is a SK, she fake claims FBI agent and leads a lynch on Cruelty in order to gain credibility.

Points that strengthen this theory:

1. Hypo-Scum buddy DJ voted SW at the beginning of Day 2, but quickly unvoted when he didn't see a lynch wagon materialize.

2. Hoopla deliberately waited until everyone else claimed before she did. Thus she was able to see the all of the results and claims of the other players and adjust her own fake claim accordingly. She tailored her results so that the town was forced to policy lynch either WoW or Cruelty. She then camped her vote on Cruelty the entire day and only mentioned WoW once, even though the rest of the town considered a WoW lynch.

3. Hypo-Scum buddies Sotty and DJ also camped their votes on Cruelty.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hey I have a question for everybody:

Is it a scum tell, null tell, or idiot tell for a player to NOT read the game thread?

Thx in advance!

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok DJ, I understand that you believe Hoopla to be scum today.

My question:

Why the hell did you believe her yesterday?

[Cuetlachtli]

vote: Budja

Theory:

Hoop is town and Budja is scum

Reasoning:

Hoop = town

1. Cruelty's flip
2. Hoop's claim
3. Since there was only 1 kill on Night 1, it would have been extremely difficult for hypo-scum Hoopla to guess that there was a SK and not another FBI agent in the game.

Budja = scum

1. Hypo-town Hoopla was tunneled by me on Day 2, while on Day 3, DJ has tunneled her. I think it is likely that Hypo-scum buddies Budja and WoW have coasted these past two days while hypo-town has tunneled hypo-town.

2. Budja has consistently reported his night actions after Sean has reported his. Coincidence or scum tell?

3. Budja and WoW have displayed poor knowledge of the thread. I dunno if this is an idiot tell or scum tell. What I do know is that there would be less incentive for scum to follow the thread on Day 2 when a policy lynch is being lead against a non-scum faction, Cruelty. Especially since only two players, Cruelty and myself, were actually against that policy lynch.

[Cuetlachtli]

3. Since there was only 1 kill on Night 1, it would have been extremely difficult for hypo-scum Hoopla to guess that there was a SK and not another FBI agent in the game.

fbi is not a common role. hypo-scum hoopla submits "kill spyrex". spyrex does not die. riddick dies. no one claims vig. hypo-scum thinks" there's probably an sk". its not as difficult as you make it sound. its actually rather rudimentary. some might call it "common sense".

whatever. i am confident that one of budja/hoop is scum. i'd prefer to lynch hoop but i'm not going to stop the budja lynch. i really wish people would stop walking around with blinders on, though. hoop and cue are riddled with bad assumptions and flawed logic.

SW ISO 10

"I protected DisgruntledSean after he claimed gunsmith."

Game Post 376

Hoopla to Spy "Hey, who did you protect (Night 1)?"

Game Post 377

Spy to Hoopla "SW "

*Note: Macho Docs can't successfully protect one another! So if the scum choose to shoot SW on Night 1, she would have died!


Basically the only way hypo-scum Hoopla would have known that there was another baddie faction was if her scum team decided not to kill on Night 1 and Riddick died out of the blue. If that did in fact happen, how would she know if Riddick's murder was committed by a Serial Killer OR a 2nd mafia faction? I think there are two many "If's" concerning Hoopla's alleged fake claim for me to indict her today.

[Cuetlachtli]

3. Since there was only 1 kill on Night 1, it would have been extremely difficult for hypo-scum Hoopla to guess that there was a SK and not another FBI agent in the game.

fbi is not a common role. hypo-scum hoopla submits "kill spyrex". spyrex does not die. riddick dies. no one claims vig. hypo-scum thinks" there's probably an sk". its not as difficult as you make it sound. its actually rather rudimentary. some might call it "common sense".

whatever. i am confident that one of budja/hoop is scum. i'd prefer to lynch hoop but i'm not going to stop the budja lynch. i really wish people would stop walking around with blinders on, though. hoop and cue are riddled with bad assumptions and flawed logic.

SW ISO 10

"I protected DisgruntledSean after he claimed gunsmith."

Game Post 376

Hoopla to Spy "Hey, who did you protect (Night 1)?"

Game Post 377

Spy to Hoopla "SW "

*Note: Macho Docs can't successfully protect one another! So if the scum choose to shoot SW on Night 1, she would have died!


Basically the only way hypo-scum Hoopla would have known that there was another baddie faction was if her scum team decided not to kill on Night 1 and Riddick died out of the blue. If that did in fact happen, how would she know if Riddick's murder was committed by a Serial Killer OR a 2nd mafia faction? I think there are two many "If's" concerning Hoopla's alleged fake claim for me to indict her today.

Oh and let me add this point to preempt and subdue anymore fail logic:

Spy ISO 49

Macho Doc can't be protected!


So since Spy is dead and flipped Macho Doc, this statement is 99.9999 % fool proof barring any fail on Spy's part. For instance, he misread his role pm, but that is so unlikely its laughable.

[Cuetlachtli]

Budja and WoW have displayed poor knowledge of the thread.

Budja, yes. Me, not so much. You'll have to present some examples, because I don't believe I've done anything that "displayed poor knowledge."

WoW ISO 23

If I had to guess, based on my chart (almost) alone, I'd go with a scum team of Budja, Cuetlachtli, and Hoopla.

But that's about 5% based on things actually said/done in-thread, meaning I really need to re-read and get a better grip on things. [For the curious, that 5% is that Budja giving his results after DisgruntledSean. Since they both investigated the same person, it would be easier for Budja to be faking results than DisgruntledSean.]


All I know is that I'm not scum, and lynching me today could very well end the game with a town loss.

Your Hypo-Scum team theory just doesn't fit. Though Budja has said I am town various times, Budja and Hoopla have suspected each other the most. I suspected Hoopla a lot on Day 2, and she thought I was scummy for that.

[Cuetlachtli]

Your Hypo-Scum team theory just doesn't fit. Though Budja has said I am town various times, Budja and Hoopla have suspected each other the most. I suspected Hoopla a lot on Day 2, and she thought I was scummy for that.

Right, and your proposed scum teams make much more sense because they're all people who aren't accusing each other of being scummy. Oh wait... By your logic, Budja and I can't be scum together, because I'm currently voting for Budja, and he's been supporting my lynch since Day 2.

Just because two people are openly accusing each other in the thread doesn't mean that they can't be scum together. But I think you already knew that.


As for Budja saying you are town various times, I went back to see just how much Budja has pushed this, and I noticed something interesting. For reference:

I believe that at most 1 PR could be lying (Hoopla if anyone ) making at least two of these players scum:
WingsOWisdom
cruelty
Sotty
don_johnson
Cuetlachtli

Cue is

not

cleared as mafia. He is cleared as Mafia PR or SK.

Well, Cue is town.
...
@Spy, "weak tracker", but note this:

note that I randomize night actions if a player flakes at night

So, Cue is very,very likely vanilla even if scum.

Well, we know Cue to be powerless, Sotty and don to not be SK/scum respectively.
(unless we have a scum busdriver or similar, PR is scum, etc)

ATM I'm most happy with lynching Wings with Sotty #2.
Cuetlachtli and Hoopla are the other poss. scum by elimination.

WingsOWisdom, Cuetlachtli are the un-investigated, non-PR's. There is a possibility that DS was redirected so Sotty is less cleared than Don.

I still see Cue's questioning as town and I still prefer a Wings lynch.

vote: Wings

followed by Cue, Hoopla.

Cue's aggressive stances as well as his constant questioning make him look town.

Feh Cue is vanilla but not cleared.

The trend I'm noticing here is that when discussing whether you seem more like town or mafia, Budja tends to lean towards town (while also emphasizing that his investigation of you is

not

an indicator of mafia/not mafia), as you noted. But when making a list of who he wants to vote for, you're right on the cusp. The impression I get is that Budja is trying to make it look like he supports lynching you without actually voting that way. Sort of like procrastination, it's an effective way of saying "I'm going to do that" without out actually doing anything.


But I think Don_johnson's vote was the hammer, so we'll see if we're right.

If Budja flips scum, then I think him repeatedly saying I am town was an attempt to buddy with me so I would think HE was town. If he was successful in me thinking he was town, then I would be more likely to vote his number one nemesis, Hoopla.

[Cuetlachtli]

If Budja flips scum, then I think him repeatedly saying I am town was an attempt to buddy with me so I would think HE was town. If he was successful in me thinking he was town, then I would be more likely to vote his number one nemesis, Hoopla.

I actually started to question Budja's motivations for calling me town early on.

Post 520, My ISO 22

Also, does anybody else feel its weird that half the town (Spy, SW, Budja, Hoopla, Sotty) is calling me town even though my predecessors lurked/were inactive and my hypo-scum team theory is deemed to be "out there?"

Him calling me town so much did help convince me to vote him (ironically), though I did fail to state that in my ISO 46.

[Cuetlachtli]

Finally!

Probably won't have time for a post before the death scene, but I'm very confident we've got scum and are still alive in this game. I'm seeing Cue or Don as potential buddies right about now.

Well this is a good sign. I was worried that you, Sotty, and DJ would be gloating about your scum victory.

[Cuetlachtli]

is the lynch final now or would the countdown resume if someone unvoted?

I believe that once someone has hammered, the lynch is final.

[Cuetlachtli]

Cue. Would you describe your play here better than in fuzzyman's mafia? Just curious for my own sake.

I don't understand this question. I have I played with you before?

[Cuetlachtli]

I got ideas, but I would prefer Sean posted his results before I speak.

Oh! and obviously nobody vote cuz all it takes is 2 townies to fail and the scum can blitz ftw.

[Cuetlachtli]

come on, it's been one day

well, i'm perplexed as i got a 'no result' from my investigation of cue.
which really has me thinking
does that mean i was roleblocked? or is that what i'd get from investigating an investigation immune role?
if they've had a roleblocker this whole time, why was i not blocked sooner, or why not block SW and kill me? questions, questions
if motion detector was the counter-balance to Cruelty's Sk, scum must have a counter to my Gunsmith
i'm thinking more and more about cue's hoopla/ sotty scum team theory

The hoopla / sotty / DJ theory is kaput seeing as we are in a 2:1:9 setup.

Question:

What was the exact wording of your other reports?

[Cuetlachtli]

Oh and Don_Johnson.....what role do you claim?

[Cuetlachtli]

Sean...how do you suppose hypo-scum Hoopla knew there was a Serial Killer in the game before she "faked" her claim?

[Cuetlachtli]

I was thinking...one possible reason why Snow White is still alive is because she is a "Mafia" Macho Doc. Think about it. We are in a 2:1:9 setup. It would really suck for the scum if the SK shot one of them on Night 1. Then we would be down to 1:1:7 with low chances for both baddie parties to win. I think a "Mafia" Macho Doc would make the game more balanced for the scum.

Here is the game that showed me that there is such a thing as a "Mafia" Doc:

viewtopic.php?t=6304&postdays=0&postorder=asc&&start=0

[Cuetlachtli]

And I just thought of something else!

One way hypo-scum Hoopla would know that there is a SK in the game would be in the pre-game. Since she would only have one partner, she would automatically assume that there is a SK in the game.

Argument against this theory:

How does she know that the other baddie party is a SK and not another mafia team? She doesn't! So in that case, is faking a FBI Agent claim a reasonable gambit? I dunno.

Basically, no one is clear. I agree with DJ...we should NL today and see what the scum do tonight.

I am going to hold off my vote until tomorrow in order to allow everyone the opportunity to share their opinions.

[Cuetlachtli]

I think a NL is good because it will narrow down the field, which will in turn lead to more accurate scum hunting.

Right now, I have no idea who could be scum.

Is it...

SW-DJ, SW-Sotty, Sean-DJ, Sean-SW, Hoop-DJ, Hoop-Sotty, Sotty-DJ, Hoop-SW...

I dunno, given the theories I have addressed, anybody could be scum.

I think by forcing the scum to narrow down the field and kill another townie, we will have a better opportunity to catch the scum.

[Cuetlachtli]

Also, you're forgetting the possibility of a 2:10 set-up too, which is something becoming more common these days. Fun fact; my first mini normal I ran used a 2:10 set-up.

2:10?

That is interesting. Link please?

[Cuetlachtli]

You know since we are most likely in a 2:1:9 setup, we are probably facing one or two "Mafia Bastards," which is the equivalent to the town Jack-of-all-trades.

[Cuetlachtli]

From what Sean has said, it looks like a role block with two purposes.

1. To push suspicion on to Sean.

2. To push suspicion on to whoever Sean investigated as a possible "role blocker."

vote: no lynch

[Cuetlachtli]

There are two options left; scum has a roleblocker, or Sean is scum.

Actually there are three options.

The scum could have a bus driver, who could manipulate Sean's reports.

[Cuetlachtli]

A bus driver could see an advantage in keeping Sean around. Maybe the bus driver could get lucky and manipulate Sean to falsely clear himself or his buddy.

[Cuetlachtli]

So scum has a roleblocker AND a busdriver?

I dunno, I am assuming that the scum are powerful since there are only two of them.

[Cuetlachtli]

Or maybe they don't need to be so powerful if a gunsmith doesn't exist. I find it really weird how you're not looking at any possibilities of Sean-scum, but are perfectly okay with Bus-Driver (and whatever else) speculations.

Because if I act like there are clears maybe the scum will kill him tonight.

So why push suspicion on SW? Well, I needed to tell everyone that theory in case I died tonight.

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok so Sean is voting Hoopla and DJ and Sotty have said they are willing to lynch Hoopla.

Remember guys, if Hoopla is inno, it only takes two townies to fail...

I personally would like to see thorough cases from Sean, DJ, and Sotty on Hoopla. Accountability is the town's number one tool against scum LYLO blitz lynches.

[Cuetlachtli]

interesting. let's test the theory.

i'm going with hoop/cue.

fuck it.

unvote, vote: hoopla

cue: i spent the entire day yesterday building a case against hoop and you completely ignored it. now you guys are talkin like buddies. makes no sense unless you are both scum.

I didn't ignore your case. I just didn't buy it.

Can you explain why Hoop and I are scum buddies?

[Cuetlachtli]

I will wait for DS's results as well before I discuss anything.

Also, no one vote yet cuz it only takes 1 fail townie to open up a blitz lynch opportunity for the scum.

[Cuetlachtli]

Alright, sorry for the inactivity. I have been active lurking on purpose, but I have a justifiable reason.

In post 713, I asked Don a very simple question. I asked him to explain why he thought Hoop and I are scum buddies. He quickly dodged this question by saying it was irrelevant at the current time. Well, it was a relevant question to me because he had mentioned a Hoop/Cuet hypo scum team five times! (Don ISO 33/34, 44, 53, 55, 59) Since Day 3, I have felt like Don had been tunneling me and Hoop. It never seemed justified and I was looking for some sort of case from Don. The fact that he brushed my question aside and countered it by cross-examining me really made me uneasy. The truth is, on Day 4 I really had no idea who the scum could be. Don was my number 1 FoS for his sudden suspicion of Hoop after following her on Day 2 and his various fail logic, but Snow White, Sotty, and Sean really hadn’t provided much content at all so there was a good possibility that one or more of them were coasting, hoping we would lynch Don or Hoop FTW. That is why I lurked yesterday. I knew we were going to no lynch, so I didn’t want to give any information away about my suspicions of SW, Sotty and Sean. If I did, I would have probably died during the night and the town today would have had a heck of a time deciding who the scum was among the pool of lurkers. My hope was that they at least kill SW or Sotty. If they had killed Hoop or Don, it would have been a major bonus because those two have been the trickiest all game.

That said, I am pretty sure Don is one of the scum. Think about it, either him or me have to be scum since we are the last two Vanilla Townies. I mean he said it himself, it would be very risky for both scum to claim a PR. That coupled with his repeated attempts to push suspicion on me without any substance or cases makes me certain that he is scum.

Assuming we lynch Don today and he flips scum, then I am certain that I am dead meat tonight. In that case, let me argue who I think is his hypo scum buddy.

I think Sean is the most likely candidate to be Don’s scum buddy. Yesterday seemed like a planned miss-lynch attempt by Don and Sean. In post 678, Sean decided to suddenly get aggressive and vote Hoop based on there being too many claimed PR’s in the game. He said, and I quote, “I was torn between budja and hoop yesterday (Day 3).” …Sean wasn’t even part of the discussion of whether to lynch Budja or Hoopla! In fact, Sean’s only appearance during that lynch was at its end when he inquired whether “the lynch (was) final now.” (ISO 18) That is why I thought his statement about being “torn between budja and hoop” seemed kinda phony to me. Of course I didn’t state this yesterday because there was a possibility that SW or Sotty were lurking scum as well. Let me remind you all that SW and Sotty commented about as often as Sean during Day 3, so it was strategically sound for me to stay silent until the scum narrowed down the field during the night. Anyways, back to my case on Sean. Another thing that bothered me about Sean’s play yesterday was post 722 where he asked me why I voted Budja yesterday. If you read my ISO, it is clear as to why I thought Budja was scum. Sean’s question made me feel like he was getting ready to reach for some straws.

There is also Seans recent post 752 where he says, “what is your plan, dj? What’s changed since WE killed/confirmed sotty?” Is that a scum slip?! It is almost too obvious of a slip to be true.

Also, if we lynch Don and he flips scum, Sean’s Day1 where he voted Iceman (whom Don replaced) could be very telling. In ISO 8, Sean posts the disclaimer “my vote (on Ice) was initially more of a pressure vote” after Budja put him at L-2 which meant he was worried that hypo-scum buddy Ice was about to be lynched and he was looking for an excuse to unvote.

Anyways, that is all I got at the moment. I would appreciate comments from everybody, including dsister.

[Cuetlachtli]

I am typing this from my phone. My cable and intenet are out this weekend. Hopefully it will be fixed by Monday or sooner. So for the time being, I am going to be afk.

[Cuetlachtli]

ok my cable and internet are fixed....

So I am pretty sure that one of the scum is Don. I find it hard to believe that we have three "investigative" roles, so the second scum has to be among Sean and Hoopla. I honestly haven't decided who I think the second scum, I need to reread a bit more.

[Cuetlachtli]

I say we lynch Don first. His flip has stark implications to Sean and Hoops' alignments since Sean's Day 2 investigation of Don came up as "no gun." For instance, if Don flips goon or any other non-investigative immune role, then Sean is almost confirmed as Don's scum buddy. If Don flips godfather or any other investigative immune role, then we still have stuff to discuss.

[Cuetlachtli]

*sigh at the quick lynch

now I really hope you are town don....

[Cuetlachtli]

hoop are you town? If yes, the 2 scum should come out....

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok no quick lynching today.

I think I am basically clear. Here is why:

1. Budja said I didn't do anything on Night 1

2. Sean found no gun on me

3. On Day 2, I was the only opponent of Hoop's policy lynch plan. I warned everyone that it was probably a ploy by hypo-scum hoop to get us to LYLO without lynching any scum, which is what happened! If you look at the results of Night 1 and the subsequent actions of Day 2, it is obvious that Cruelty killed Riddick and the mafia tried to kill Cruelty. That is why Hoop camped her vote on Cruelty hoping the town would lynch him, which in turn would make her FBI agent claim seem real.

There are a couple reasons why my actions on Day 2 should be seen as town. First of all, scum want quick days. They want minimal discussion to prevent scum slips and to make the town player's overall reads more difficult. Remember, just before I argued my Hoop-Sotty-Don hypo-scum theory, Cruelty was at L-2. If I had kept that theory to myself and voted Cruelty instead, we would have almost surely of had a quick lynch on Day 2. Instead, I pushed the issue and forced the town into additional discussion.

[Cuetlachtli]

Right now my initial FoS is Don.

When I first replaced into the game on Day 2, I made it clear right off the bat that there was something fishy about the relationship between Hoop and Don. On Day 1 during the Sean and Ice bandwagons, Hoop gave Ice town points for not voting Sean. It seemed like a phony statement to me since Ice only had 2-3 posts at the time, which wasn't enough content to make such a brash judgment in my opinion. Once Don replaced Ice and started tunneling on Cruelty, Hoop was again quick to give Don's slot the town label.

Another point against Don are the stark differences between his Day 2 and 3 play-styles. On Day 2, Don was very passive and kind of let things happen. I think this is because he knew that if we lynched Cruelty, his scum buddy Hoop would gain substantial credibility among the town heading into the next day. On Day 3, Don went full circle and became very aggressive. His main focus on Day 3 was on Hoop. He said that he looked back at Hoop's Day 2 and concluded that he didn't believe here claim, even though we did in fact lynch the Serial Killer. This came across as distancing to me and I called Don out on it. How could Don even be motivated to look back at Day 2 after Cruelty's SK flip all but proved Hoop's claim? And if he did have reasons not to believe Hoop yesterday, why did he support her from the beginning? He answered that he really couldn't focus on Day 2 because of real life issues. Well I went back and reread Day 2 and I called Don out about various stuff on 3 separate occasions. On each of those 3 occasions, Don replied to all of my posts on the same day! If real life issues really were an impediment to Don's play on Day 2, you would think that there would have been a substantial delay between when I posted and when he replied to my post. I think Don's response time on Day 2 is evidence against him for active lurking. Keep in mind, Don active lurked all of Day 2 with a vote camped on Cruelty; a lynch that would give his scum buddy some serious town points.

One of the things that made me start to question Hoop was her willingness to lynch Sean after my post 756 during Day 4. At the beginning of Day 4, Hoop had said that the town should decide the next 2 lynches as a whole before placing any votes. Well in post 763 Hoop seemed to contradict this statement by joining Don's bandwagon on Sean and putting him at L-1. The town had never decided on the next 2 lynches and here Hoop was pushing for a Sean quick lynch. That is when I started to question post 756 and again start suspecting Hoop as a likely mafioso. It seemed like she thought I was 100% on her side and she was hoping that I would hammer Sean for the scum victory. But I didn't and I think that again is more town points for me.

Yet another point against Don are his two hammers. The Day 1 hammer on Sidekick was a little fishy. His Day 3 hammer on Budja was very scummy. Even though he thought Budja was town and Hoop scum, he said that he didn't want to wait so that is why he hammered Budja. Umm...if you think someone is town, you don't hammer them! Even if you are dealing with a fail town, you stand your ground until the deadline forces you and the town to make a decision. I just thought Don's reason for hammering Budja was a cop out and a poor excuse for a scum to end the day.

[Cuetlachtli]

And now the inevitable point against me:

Cue, since Dsister, Sean, and Don voted to lynch Hoop and you didn't, you must be scum! Clearly 3 members of the town voted to lynch Hoop, who was obvious scum. The fact that you didn't participate in this lynch is evidence that you are scum!



Well, this is kind of a difficult point to refute. Yes 3 people voted to lynch Hoop, who flipped scum, but this doesn't necessarily mean all 3 of them are town! If that were the case , then I made a serious blunder by not hammering Sean, who was at L-1 for 4 hours and L-2 for 6 hours.

Look, almost all of the good scum players buss. Its a fact. I do it all the time on Epic Mafia. Bussing is a very effective way to confuse the town and manipulate them into miss lynching. Now look at Don's scum record that he boasts at the bottom of all his posts: mafia 8 wins, 3 loses. That record makes him look like a elite scum player. And what do elite scum players like to do? Buss!

I think my argument about Don's Day 2 and 3 play is critical. Do you really think he would have been motivated to reread Day 2 critically after Cruelty flipped serial killer? Do you really think Don would suspect Hoop of being scum after Day 2, even though he completely trusted her all of Day 2 when I gave him all the reasons in the world not to trust her?

[Cuetlachtli]

ok I will go back and reread the whole thread. We have a 2 week deadline anyways.

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok how bout this:

Is a Gunsmith, 2x macho doc, 5x vanilla townie, and motion detector vs a bulletproof SK vs a mafia roleblocker and mafia unknown a balanced setup? Why or why not?

[Cuetlachtli]

Sean this is your first Mafia game no? If yes, tell me all that you knew about the game of Mafia before starting this game. What did you know about game mechanics, setups, roles, jargon, etc.?

[Cuetlachtli]

Alright, well Don I find it unbelievable that you would trust Hoop all of Day 2 and suddenly distrust him during Night 2 enough to reread Day 2. Can you tell me when and why you became suspicious of Hoop? Also, do you have any examples from past games where acted in a similar way as how you did on Days 2 and 3?

[Cuetlachtli]

Don I have been rereading the game and I think I have made some real progress. There is this potential "slip" that I think I may have uncovered. I am not quite ready to reveal it yet...maybe on Friday or this weekend when I have more time.

Also, during Day 4, I tested the "flavor" argument with games incorporating a gunsmith role and found out that very few mods actually used flavor in those particular games.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hey Don, I am going to take us to the deadline if I have to, so get used to it.

[Cuetlachtli]

Hey Don, I am going to take us to the deadline if I have to, so get used to it.

i have no problem with that, i would just like some discussion. sean's basically lurking and you said you had some more stuff to post. i feel like i'm the only one here. if you don't post anything for sean to respond to, or anything for me to respond to, then this threads basically waiting for you. i think i've posted about all i can unless you start asking questions.

Ok Don I will throw you a bone. What do you think of post 102 on page 5?

[Cuetlachtli]

also, there was very little reason to even speculate on the existence of an sk at that point in time, so i guess you could look at it as a "slip" that sean knew full well that the scum team was only two players and so the chances of there being an sk were greatly increased. or his experienced scum partner could have enlightened him to that fact in pre game talk, if such talk was allowed.

This is why I am leaning towards Sean right now. He has already stated that his only experience with the game of Mafia prior to this game was in the real life party setting. I have played Mafia at a couple parties and we never used any complex setups with Serial Killers, trackers, watchers, bus drivers, etc. Each game we played used the basic setup (nillas, cop, doc, goons), that is why I am skeptical that Sean would even know that the Serial Killer role even exists in the world of Mafia. That said, there is absolutely no reason for a townie to mention a possible SK on Day 1 when there is no evidence that there is one in the game.

I am going to hold off on hammering Sean for the time being just because I have the luxury to reread the whole game.

[Cuetlachtli]

Moar random comments:

Post 246 on page 10 looks like a good foil to post 102. Don mentions three possible scum candidates, which means he was assuming we were in a 3:9 setup at that point in the game. Either Don is part of the uninformed majority or he is posting routine scum bs. The fact that Don assumed that there were 3 scum while Sean assumed that there was a SK on Day 1 bodes well for Don.

[Cuetlachtli]

I guess one argument for town-Sean would be the fact that Hoop was part of the Day 1 Sean wagon very early on. The counter argument for town-Sean would be that Hoop had coached Sean in the pregame and they had a fake claim prepared prior to Day 1. This would explain the urgency of post 247 on page 10 where Hoop exclaims in bold for "Sean [to] claim in [his] next post."

To be continued.....

[Cuetlachtli]

Post 329...Don hammers sidekick before he claims. Neg points for Don. Seems too blatant to be a scum move. Most likely Don hammered out of bad form.

[Cuetlachtli]

Post 444, page 18:

Hoop sells the idea that everyone should believe Sean's claim since he is a newbie. This is also the third time that he is reminded the town that Sean is too newbie to fake claim (ISO 25 and 35).

This is important because this is exactly why I never question Sean's claim all game.

More later...

[Cuetlachtli]

Post 483, page 20:

Hoop seems focused on getting the SK on Day 2 rather then finding the "mafia." This ties well with post 102 because it seems like hypo-scummies Hoop and Sean are very concerned with finding the SK and lynching him. Obviously, the mafia would be afraid of the SK because that is the only role that they are mortally vulnerable to at night. Since there are only 2 mafiosos, getting the SK early on is imperative for a scum victory.

[Cuetlachtli]

Day 2-3:

Hoop has been pushing for a lynch on Budja, while ignoring Sean. Hm...

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok I am hammering Sean on Monday or Tuesday unless he tells me why I shouldn't. I will then review his rebuttal and decide whether or not I want to do more deliberating.

[Cuetlachtli]

Ok I am tired of waiting. Sorry if I am wrong graveyard.

vote: DisgruntledSean

Don...if you are there please tell me if the town or scum won.

[Cuetlachtli]

town here. i'm glad you came at this with an even keel. yours is never an easy position.

This is great news! You know I have literally been wrong all game, I am glad I finally got something right. The odds were really stacked against you going into the last day. Great job arguing your side.

[Cuetlachtli]

Yea Hoop I thought you played a good game. You had me fooled!

Alright I gtg. See you around all!