Mini 1094 - Mariposa Peak Mafia - Game Over!


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Post Post #25 (isolation #0) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 12:25 am

Post by AGar »

VOTE: Singersigner

Policy.
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Post Post #26 (isolation #1) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 12:26 am

Post by AGar »

Also, hello Thor, Dram, SS, Seraphim, CA and Powerrox who I've played with and actually played with.

Hi Reck. You've modded me twice, but the one game we were in together, you got capped N0. Lames.
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Post Post #33 (isolation #2) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 4:48 am

Post by AGar »

Blood Queen wrote:
AGar wrote:VOTE: Singersigner

Policy.
Why?
Extreme inability to present herself in a way that is coherent and readable for fellow town-members resulting in potential liability of a mislynch in key scenarios.
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Post Post #39 (isolation #3) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:24 am

Post by AGar »

Reckamonic wrote:We're actually xRECKONERx & dramonic, but when united, we combine to form one faggy, superscumhunting, cuddly beast! Muahahahahaha!
Someone needs to sig this.

Just sayin'.
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Post Post #47 (isolation #4) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 6:14 pm

Post by AGar »

Hmmm.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Powerrox94

I'm with Thor on this one. Questioning the reasoning of one but not the other, suspiciously selective.

However, I do have a suspicion of Thor, for a more... complex reason?

Thor's played several games with me, including one recently where I vehemently opposed two of the positions I just took - meta and policy lynches. No mention of this contradiction to my playstyle was made in any Thor posting. Not damning, but worth keeping something in mind.

FoS: Thor
(OMG I FoS'd someone!)

Guderian, what is your opinion on scum who try and steal the limelight?
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Post Post #53 (isolation #5) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 6:48 pm

Post by AGar »

Thor665 wrote:I've actually been scum twice and prominent scum twice and have gone 1/1 with the tactic. I do consider it the superior scum tactic though - otherwise I wouldn't use it.

@AGar - when did you take a meta position in this game?
Policy on singersigner is solely based off a past game.

@gud - I mean you seem to think scum will maintain an appearance of "coasting" and sitting in the background. What's your opinion on scum who take the attention and the spotlight.

(Thor, I actually didn't mean it as a ding to you, I've just had more success with it, so I see it as more viable as well, and question when people solely focus on those "cruising")
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Post Post #74 (isolation #6) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 3:21 am

Post by AGar »

I'm gonna read the SS/CC back-and-forth in a minute, but Gud needs to hang. Now.

Post #57 is straight up :scumposting:

Key line:
Guderan wrote:Your question is intrinsically flawed, because I don't know who is the scum until we either lynch them all or the game is over and so I wont know if they were scum and 'taking the attention' or town and 'taking the attention'.
Bam.

He then goes on to set up a specific meta-type for a 3 man scum-team's potential behavior.

It's sooooo scummy it hurts.
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Post Post #75 (isolation #7) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 3:37 am

Post by AGar »

Now to SS/CC.

Wooo one-liner PBPA for this. This is a TL;DR for everyone who wants it.

#61 is bad. Being overly defensive is groundwork for... active lurking? And why would this being a theme game or not matter. He did single her out at first, then qualify it to the rest of the group. (CC)
#62 ignores the points of #61 (SS)
#63 blows things out of proportion. Seriously. "sheer, irrational fear"?(CC)
#64 is meh. Logical response. (SS)
#65 is theory discussion with a slight hint of insult. (SS)
#66 is an odd retort. (SS)
#67 takes a lot of huge stretches, and is overall, a bad case. (CC)
#68 is a bad vote based on a bad case. (CC)
#69 is unimportant acknowledgment. (SS)
#70 is pure defense, of the Chicago Bears variety. (SS)
#71 is a sharp retort, bringing up a decently valid point. (SS)
#72 is pretty much all ad-hom (CC)
#73 is pretty much OMGUS with a hint of a case of "The case on me is wrong. Scum push wrong cases." (SS)

The better option here is that both of you two stop spamming around the useless nonsense and instead vote for Gud, who is actually scum.

Thor, you're point on Powerrox still stands, but this latest greatest development is much more fruitful I think.
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Post Post #110 (isolation #8) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 9:02 pm

Post by AGar »

sims5487 wrote:Sorry all, lots of work yesterday so I am just getting to all this now. However in the meantime I am going to

Unvote: Rhinox
Vote: AGar
because I know him IRL and he is SUPER SCUMMY.

But I am also reading his stuff on Gud and the SS/CC nonsense so I'll be back with my thoughts on that in a bit.
Hi Ryan (I presume).
Rhinox wrote:But my question is... why isn't AGar voting Gud if gud is "sooooo scummy it hurts"? Especially considering
AGar wrote:Thor, you're point on Powerrox still stands, but this latest greatest development is much more fruitful I think.
I didn't change my vote????

Gah. Bollocks, I say.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Guderian

@Gud
Yes, I set my case up with a one-liner. :roll: The quote there is pretty self-explanatory. You're side-stepping taking a stance.

@Gud, 2.0
The point of my question wasn't to say all scum are in your face. The point was to make you take into consideration that scum don't fit one damn stereotype, and you're scummy for trying to fit one stereotype to find your scum.

Don't hate. On Fate. Fate's awesome. And usually very perceptive. Good weapon to have as town.

There is scum in the mix of Gud/BQ/PR/sims. Potentially multiple. Possibly all, not likely. The wagons evened out too quickly, like "Oh shit, no bus, no bus."

I'm leaning sims & BQ. If a third, Gud.

Wagons are 4-4 atm (me/Sims).

Go BQ first. If BQ flips scum, then Sims.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: BloodQueen

Leaning town on CA.
Gud can wait for now.
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Post Post #111 (isolation #9) » Wed Dec 08, 2010 9:03 pm

Post by AGar »

Thread needs more rainbows.

Looks at Reckamonic.
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Post Post #122 (isolation #10) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:11 am

Post by AGar »

ConfidAnon wrote:
Blood Queen wrote:Not liking Confid's vote against sims. It's based upon sims not commenting on anything that has happened so far, but in the same post in which Confid votes sims, he doesn't mention the Carrot VS Singer discussion or the AGar VS Guderian debate either.
But the way Confid argues with sims come across as genuine. Gut town read on sims.
It's somewhat based on that, but more so on the fact that it read, to me, as a post made for the sake of posting. I translate it to "I don't have much to say about the SS vs. CC discussion, but I don't want to appear as if I am lurking, so I'll throw in a random vote and promise to get to things later."

The overreaction does strike me as a new player, and thus a nulltell . . . but I don't like the need to keep up appearances demonstrated in the post which I first commented on. It seems to me as something that newb-scum would try to pull.
AGar wrote:Go BQ first. If BQ flips scum, then Sims.
What leads you to connect Blood Queen to sims?
Sims wagon was at 4, mine was at 3 and had recently pulled ahead. BQ, while posting about everything else, stuck her vote on my wagon, bringing them back to a tie scenario. If I had to pick out 3, I'd say sims was their scum buddy, Gud put a 3rd vote on him to look like a bit of pressure, PR (town in this scenario) puts his vote on sims to make it 4 and then BQ panics at the wagon actually pulling ahead and votes me to tie them back up.
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Post Post #123 (isolation #11) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:14 am

Post by AGar »

Also, where have I "fully denied to explain anything"?

I've been quite transparent, I thought. It doesn't take rocket science to look at the Gud quote and be like "Wow, he's completely sidestepping taking a stance right here."
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Post Post #137 (isolation #12) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 7:25 pm

Post by AGar »

Sims, early bandwagons and the way players vote are often very telling. BQ's vote looked desperately like an "Oh shit, my buddy is going to be the lead wagon! And with serious accusations, too! Drive the counterwagon!"

Good reading material on this is Mini 1032 - ReBoot Mafia. Featuring myself and Thor from this cast. The meat of it on D1 is that a wagon on Uite gained ground very, very quickly. Up to L-2, with some bussing influence (Thor). Zoneace (Uite & Thor's scumbuddy) found a weak reason to attack town player (MPR) and tried to push the wagon. It backfired in the fact that ZA got himself lynched instead, but it clearly illustrates the same pattern of behavior I see here - scum A makes some kind of slip, after some pressure gathers, scum B hops on. Scum C sees Scum A's wagon take off and panics, and tries to counter-wagon to save Scum A. Also note that Thor pulled out in time to preserve Uite, but sacrificed Zoneace instead. But again, a similar behavior is illustrated in Gud, who hopped off of your wagon as the counter is presented, but moved to Thor instead.

Reckamonic, Sera - Both slots have a decent bit of experience here, so I'm interested in your input here.
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Post Post #139 (isolation #13) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 8:11 pm

Post by AGar »

3:1:8.

Oh god, this is a joke, right?

Please tell me this is a joke. I'm not going to get into a big theory discussion, but basically if DH gave us a 3:1:8, I'll hate him for life, as it relies way too heavily on there being a crosskill on N1 for town to have near
any
chance at winning. 3:1:8 is not a very often run setup, as it's heavily imbalanced towards the town.

And yes, this is Mini 1094. But when you get up to 35-40 games played, you'll start to see trends too.
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Post Post #140 (isolation #14) » Thu Dec 09, 2010 8:12 pm

Post by AGar »

EBWOP:

last line of the middle paragraph (starting with "Please tell me..." should read "... as it's heavily imbalanced against the town."
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Post Post #156 (isolation #15) » Fri Dec 10, 2010 9:16 am

Post by AGar »

For BQ:
Blood Queen wrote: @Agar
'Serious' policy lynch vote or just to use it for the RVS?
Semi-serious. Unless she shows me something other than I've seen, I'm leery of seeing her make it to endgame. Opinions that can be changed.
Blood Queen wrote:[1] On to AGar. Why did you mention policy and meta if you normally don't do so? And what's in it for scum-Thor to not mention it?
Also, could you still answer my question in post 40 for clarification?

[2] To both AGar and Thor, both of you state that Power singled Rhinox out by only asking Thor about his reasons for wanting to lynch Rhinox, while 'ignoring' the reasons against AGar. However, Carrot does the same and both of you don't mention how scummy that is from Carrot? How come?

[3] Agreed with Rhinox his question against AGar.
[1] Hoping to maybe spark discussion. Scum-Thor could benefit in a mislynch of SS if he doesn't bring it up, but he's played many games with me, which is why I semi-targetted him. I also can't read him for shit, so it was an attempt to get a read of him.

[2] I overlooked Carrot because of the CC/SS debate that gave more to work with.

[3] This has been resolved.
Blood Queen wrote:Other than that, there's one more thing against AGar:
DemonHybrid wrote:
Vote Count
Day 1 Vote Count (#5)


sims5487
- 4 (Rhinox, ConfidAnon, Guderian, Powerrox03)

AGar
- 4 (Reckamonic, Seraphim, sims5487, Blood Queen)[/area]
You mentioned the wagons, right? Shall we look more closely?
From the 4 votes against Sims, the vote from Rhinox is a Random Vote.
From the 4 votes against you, Dramonerx, Seraphim and sims are all Random Votes.
Leaving Sims with 3 serious votes and you with 1 serious vote. Wanna try that again?
4 votes on Sims: Rhinox was RVS, Confid was serious, Gud was hardly serious on the surface (he slipped on), and I'm skeptical that PR thought that through.

4 votes on me: Reckamonic was RVS, Sera was RVS, sims was RVS and you were serious.

Yes.

What's the point?

My point is, a wagon grew and sims has seemed scummy in the eyes of several people. Even if they aren't on the wagon, many mentioned the over-reaction. The wagon has potential. My wagon, as far as I've seen, has none, aside from your opinion. But it at least staved off sims from getting steam by trying to get the attention off of him and on to me.

My thoughts on sims are neutral as far as his behavior is concerned. But the interaction of his wagon is what's damning for me. If you flip scum, he's next on my firing list. If you somehow flip town, I'll need to re-read him for behavior.



Carrotcake wrote:Agar is clearly being political.Knowingly pushing a weak agenda, as he doesn't have the load of accountability.
Not sure what you're getting at here about "pushing a weak agenda." This wagon analysis is rock solid, I believe. I'm holding myself highly accountable, putting 2 and a half reads out there with a lot of certainty. I want BQ lynched today.

If you're talking about the PR thing - I found it suspicious, but I don't believe I posted a vote on him. I did note it, yes. It's good practice to be pretty transparent.




Thor: Thoughts on what I'm bringing here?
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Post Post #167 (isolation #16) » Fri Dec 10, 2010 7:12 pm

Post by AGar »

Guderian wrote:
agar wrote:If you flip scum, he's next on my firing list. If you somehow flip town, I'll need to re-read him for behavior.
Cant miss this nugget from Agar. Setting up actions predicated on previous actions = scum. If X, and X is bad, does not mean we should do Y and then Z and then....
You're missing what happened here.

My scum read on sims is SOLELY based on BQ-scum right now. He's been a neutral read to me.

Ugh, I have to explain more theory, fun.

Let's say BQ is town somehow, but we lynch her anyway. My scum-read on sims is somewhat destroyed, because my scumread came from interactions with BQ. With BQ being town, her interactions with other players (her attitude towards them) is generally null. However, I won't just chalk sims up as town in that case - he'll need to be re-read.

That came because I was asked on my read on sims. Behavior is neutral. Interactions is scum.



sims5487 wrote:AGar, I'm not sure how you can say you wagon theory is "rock solid". It's weak, at best. It's way too idealistic and perfect to be true, even if it is "logical".
Past experiences.

I've played some... 10 minis now? 5/5 on the normal and theme split. 2 scum, 8 town I believe.

I could probably go back through and find similar behavior in multiple of the 8. I've already cited a game where I've seen it.

Scum tend to pattern themselves, whether they know it or not.

If you're not on for bussing your partner, then your natural reaction is to protect them. Especially works if you (sims) are a scum PR. That's how in the newbie game Thor referenced I nailed who was who on the scum-team: When I asked them to present cases on each other, being that they were my two top suspects and I was only willing to consider one or the other, one freely attacked the other with an aggressive case. The other attacked with more flimsy reasons and didn't try to stir the pot. The latter was obviously the goon trying not to get his RB partner lynched in the event of a cop/doctor being present.




@Thor
I have noted PR to be a potential scum as well. His or Gud's timing fits in with the BQ panic mode that I'm seeing. Also, his posts have been quite largely skirting questions. I just have a stronger read on BQ here right now. The big indicator is the post where she votes for me. She notes me once, asking me to answer some questions for her about why I mentioned policy/meta and what benefits you have to ignoring it. But that's it. Not "OMG AGar did this, or AGar did that." Instead, just moves onto the wagon while even mentioning a suspicion of PR for "stretching what sims said." Just more preservation motivation that I see.

Also, re: the RVS thing. Policy lynches are notoriously bad for town (as I believe I've mentioned before in 1039). I've pushed some in the past that were horrid ideas, and I've generally opposed them since. I thought a possibility of catching you as opportunistic (or anyone else for that matter - but you would be specifically blowing past the whole aspect of "AGar, you just opposed a policy lynch as town," tidbit unlike others) existed. In retrospect, the FoS was highly misguided that I've seen, being that you didn't note a policy/meta aspect to it.
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Post Post #193 (isolation #17) » Sat Dec 11, 2010 11:52 pm

Post by AGar »

Reck/Dram: Specifically asked for your input on where the large facet of my energy has been going with the BQ lynch. Why, pray tell, was it ignored?

Also, I'm thinking Gud's more likely scum atm, but that's a hip-reaction from the whole "I pegged AGar as SK. No wait, I'm the SK."
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Post Post #207 (isolation #18) » Sun Dec 12, 2010 11:26 pm

Post by AGar »

Thor665 wrote:@AGar - please explain to me scumGud's motivation for that - that seems way too derpy easy road logic for you to take.
This is true. But I just... I'm baffled by it honestly. Open anti-wincon claims always throw me for a loop. The fact that he's ignored presses at it in his follow up post does nothing to assuage me here. He "got what he wanted" is just more.. guh.

I can't wrap my brain around this... Need to simmer on it more.
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Post Post #247 (isolation #19) » Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:46 am

Post by AGar »

Guderian wrote:
recka wrote: Town motivation for claiming SK: Um. ...yeah, nothing.
1. Reactions
2. something about me. It has helped this part definitely.
Scum.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Guderian

Want to give us your real claim now?
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Post Post #248 (isolation #20) » Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:48 am

Post by AGar »

Am I supposed to respond to 246?
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Post Post #301 (isolation #21) » Wed Dec 15, 2010 3:54 pm

Post by AGar »

Rhinox wrote:
AGar wrote:Am I supposed to respond to 246?
I think you just did.

But if you want a direct question to answer, why BQ first instead of sims?
BQ's vote looked scum-motivated.

sims I don't have a behavior based scum-read on, only associative.

It was all in the timing and nature of BQ's vote.




Thor, Gud vote was based on his admitting to claiming an anti-town role to further an agenda. Town doesn't have agendas.d




Gud, first - there were no frothing masses. Stop getting so anxious about L-1. Second, no, I'd rather vote you and force you to feel uncomfortable, feel pressured. You've reacted rather poorly. Also, stop trying to be Hoopla. You're not Hoopla, and if you think scum wins those games by doing nothing, it just shows you don't have a real grasp on this game like Hoopla does.

Your belief that you are cleared because scum doesn't do anything, and you are doing something, is so ass-backwards it isn't even funny.

3:9's are horrible for town, but the change isn't reliant on what town is dowing, it's reliant on how the setups are designed. But save that for MD, not here.




Gud needs the rope. He seems to believe that he is playing the most pro-town game we've seen, but he's managed to instead just pull the entire town's attention onto him, claims to have had an agenda, and his behavior has been dodgy and seems to have attempted to be able to be pegged in a read by anyone.
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Post Post #325 (isolation #22) » Thu Dec 16, 2010 8:08 am

Post by AGar »

Thor665 wrote:
AGar wrote:Thor, Gud vote was based on his admitting to claiming an anti-town role to further an agenda. Town doesn't have agendas.d
If he'd said 'to further scumhunting' would you still be voting him?

Why am I not getting a super town read off you today dude?
1) I don't agree with fakeclaiming an anti-town role to begin with, and to "further scumhunting" would be a sketchy reason at best. I'd probably be hard-pressed to believe he was doing it for a pro-town motivation. So likely, yes.

2) I dunno, really.
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Post Post #354 (isolation #23) » Tue Dec 21, 2010 12:57 am

Post by AGar »

Ugh, Confid - your hammer screams all kinds of awful to me.

Thor - basing a townread on 1 post? Or is there more into it that I'm missing.

Re: Me getting on the Gud wagon - Do you recall me noting suspicion of Gud consistently through D1? That post was the straw that broke the camels back then. You're basing a vote based off of us having a differing view on theory behind optimal town play. I don't think his play in claiming SK was VI-like at all, honestly, since you want to delve into a theory based vote. Gud had just been playing in a manner that furthered a win-condition of an anti-town faction rather than a pro-town faction throughout the day. But not VI-like. Look at Gud's Iso #33, where he explains why he claimed SK. While I still don't agree it was an optimal town play, and the confusion furthered the cause of scum rather than town, he provides a level of thought and analysis that a player like DMSIS or Furcolow or any other VI would be capable of producing. VIs generally play mindlessly.

So if you think my vote was running up a VI, try again. I voted him for general non-productive behavior for the town and anti-town actions such as causing mass confusion with an anti-town role claim which benefitted the scum in removing the spotlight from anyone else and forcing it on him while also propelling his own mislynch.

Do you level with me now?
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Post Post #355 (isolation #24) » Tue Dec 21, 2010 12:59 am

Post by AGar »

My top suspects are undecided at this point, for those wondering. I need to re-read this, as I feel I was potentially barking way up the wrong tree yesterday.
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Post Post #368 (isolation #25) » Wed Dec 22, 2010 1:09 am

Post by AGar »

Thor665 wrote:
AGar wrote:Thor - basing a townread on 1 post? Or is there more into it that I'm missing.
I see no problem with basing a town read off one post. Looking at his other posts I don't see anything that screams scum so why change the opinion from the one?
AGar wrote:I voted him for general non-productive behavior for the town and anti-town actions such as causing mass confusion with an anti-town role claim which benefitted the scum in removing the spotlight from anyone else and forcing it on him while also propelling his own mislynch.
So you voted him for doing something that was silly and would get him mislynched and it was anti-town because it got him mislynched?

No, I'm afraid I don't follow. Why wouldn't you listen to me when I asked ridiculous questions like 'how does his play further a scum agenda?' You helped bully through a VI mislynch and you didn't even put much (any?) of a personal spin on it.

If you're not scum on that wagon who is?
Also, what are your thoughts on my logic that clears Confid and sims from the wagon?
I just don't like the idea of handing out a townread so easily, but I just wanted to clarify that really.

I voted him for not acting in a manner a town-aligned player should. Committing an action that would propel your own mislynch is anti-town at best, and a massive WIFOM trap waiting to happen, and you know it as well as I do. Creating WIFOM traps like that is not what a town player should be doing. They cause confusion. Claiming an anti-town, third party role also creates confusion. Causing confusion is only a benefit to non-town players. Therefore, Gud was acting in a way that only benefitted either mafia or 3rd party roles.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you lynch people who appear to be scum. One way to appear to be scum is to be acting in direct contradiction to how a town player should be acting.

I'm not sure how you're not following this logic. It's not that difficult.

I did pay attention to your questions, and I think I answered them well. Just because something doesn't appear to directly further a scum agenda, doesn't make it a townie player. If scum-driven actions were the only way to find scum, either the scum were playing really poorly, or we'd never catch scum. Scum's objective is to blend in, why wouldn't they make the plays that could be seem town-driven, or at least not scum-driven.

The other scum on the wagon are between Reckamonic, Sera and PR I believe. I'd say one of them only, that wagon took way too long after the claim to be driven by 2-3 scum. Recka and PR are my heavier reads, less serious on Sera, Sera mostly because of timing + the post in which he hopped on, where he thought only "Claim SK = Lynch". Recka was on before it, and echoed the Sera sentiments essentially when the SK claim came about, while PR's voting post and what seemed to be his main reasoning was awful, and as flimsy as paper mache.

Also, I can agree with Confid (although his hammer looks terrible), but not on Sims, in terms of the wagon analysis alone. Sims hopped on that lynch fairly easily and before the whole dual-personality bit, and the post your highlighting was simply rhetoric.

Agreeing with the idea that CC is looking quite awful right now.
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Post Post #391 (isolation #26) » Fri Dec 24, 2010 1:50 am

Post by AGar »

@MOD
Just noting that I'll be away from the computer the 26th (I'll get in a post on Christmas, sadly my life IS that pathetic) and from December 31st (night time) until the 3rd (I'll likely post sometime that afternoon).

Noted


Ok, I really need to ask something:

Is the wagon on me SOLELY because of my vote?

Does no one recall the constant suspicion I had had of {BQ, sims, Gud, PR} pretty much from early on D1?

Nacho - What about Iso #8 struck you, honestly? Because you're the first to call attention to the post other than I placed two votes because of the chronological post I made.

@Thor: You had a town read on Confid. Replacement comes in and simply sheeps you with no real foundation on the vote. Any change in opinion at all?
Last edited by DemonHybrid on Fri Dec 24, 2010 8:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #392 (isolation #27) » Fri Dec 24, 2010 2:02 am

Post by AGar »

VOTE: Carrotcake

The complete ignorance of the Gud wagon.
The following "I-told-you-so" attitude, when she didn't. She just ignored it.
Post #235's "OMG BE PARANOID OF EVERYONE" vibe.
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Post Post #405 (isolation #28) » Sat Dec 25, 2010 5:49 am

Post by AGar »

Carrotcake wrote:And singer, before you go: "It's not imaginary if people are voting!".

1.) Seraph is voting against me because of omgus.
2.) You, too, are omgusing.
3.) Agar is trying to save his neck by building momentum on someone else.
Lawl. OMGUS is a nice buzzword you've got there. And I'm sorry, did you expect me to simply go down easily? God, and you called us awful.
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Post Post #419 (isolation #29) » Mon Dec 27, 2010 3:58 am

Post by AGar »

Nachomamma8 wrote:AGar - No, that's not my problem with ISO #8.
AGar wrote:There is scum in the mix of Gud/BQ/PR/sims. Potentially multiple. Possibly all, not likely. The wagons evened out too quickly, like "Oh shit, no bus, no bus."

I'm leaning sims & BQ. If a third, Gud.

Wagons are 4-4 atm (me/Sims).

Go BQ first. If BQ flips scum, then Sims.
This is my problem with ISO #8. This declaration came out of absolutely nowhere, and you don't explain it as if it didn't. And it sets up for some mighty fine wagon hopping; your previous two suspicions are still on the list, so if Thor pursued Powerrox or the Guderian wagon, you'd still be fine. But here's the clincher- you magic a connection between BQ and sims, then vote for BQ. This allows you to stay off the sims lynch until the bandwagon gets large, and then you can simply say that sims and BQ were scumbuddies anyways and vote for sims.
This is all great and such, except I clearly explained everything when apparently people didn't get what I was saying, I stuck to the BQ wagon until Gud pulled the SK claim, and I never once pushed for a sims lynch, nor aimed for it. I specifically said BQ needed to go first, and I only had a conditional read on sims. Sounds pretty much like I wasn't gonna gun for sims. Early game vote shifts happen as if they came from nowhere pretty often, as most early game wagons/votes are fueled by weak reasoning, so a strong reason might appear somewhere.
Nachomamma8 wrote: Then, your "connection":
AGar wrote:Sims wagon was at 4, mine was at 3 and had recently pulled ahead. BQ, while posting about everything else, stuck her vote on my wagon, bringing them back to a tie scenario. If I had to pick out 3, I'd say sims was their scum buddy, Gud put a 3rd vote on him to look like a bit of pressure, PR (town in this scenario) puts his vote on sims to make it 4 and then BQ panics at the wagon actually pulling ahead and votes me to tie them back up.
BQ tying the wagon would not be a scumtell at all UNLESS sims was scum. But who does he vote for? The person WITHOUT a wagon on them. Smells doubly like a bus to me. Not only does this let him push a lynch on BQ once sims dies, but it also gives him an excuse to stay off the wagon.
Conversely, sims wouldn't be scum unless BQ was trying to save him from what I gathered. And how is pushing for the player without a wagon constitute a bus? You're kidding right?

Honestly, Nacho pegging almost half of the remaining players as scum (Myself, sims, SS, and reckamonic) and then calling a slot with little-to-no actual activity town is laughable at best.
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Post Post #428 (isolation #30) » Tue Dec 28, 2010 3:36 am

Post by AGar »

Nachomamma8 wrote:
AGar wrote:Conversely, sims wouldn't be scum unless BQ was trying to save him from what I gathered. And how is pushing for the player without a wagon constitute a bus? You're kidding right?
BQ wouldn't be scum unless sims was because there's absolutely no reason for scumBQ to even out two townie wagons, is there?
Setting the fall for sims-town/clearing herself.

Hypothetical:

If I'm scum and I see a townie wagon pulling ahead of another, and I even them out, it looks like I'm stopping a bus. By your logic, then we should lynch the countered wagonee and if he flips scum, lynch me. If he flips town, I'm out of said suspicion.

Neither way is foolproof, and it may have been naive of me to believe that such a theory held it's own, but based on
how
the wagons gained such ground - sims with actual seeming intent to lynch, mine with a handful of random votes - it comes across plausibly to me, and I believe I've more than sufficiently explained it.
Nachomamma8 wrote:
AGar wrote:Honestly, Nacho pegging almost half of the remaining players as scum (Myself, sims, SS, and reckamonic) and then calling a slot with little-to-no actual activity town is laughable at best.
Four players = scumteam + 1 extra. What's wrong with a margin of error, again?

BQ has posted enough for me to get a town read on her, just like she's posted enough for you to get a scumread.
Assuming 3:9 (which is a safe assumption), yes. But there's a difference between margin of error, and grouping a lot of suspects with mobility.

When I named BQ/sims/PR/Gud, I pointed out 3 very specific suspicions if that were to hold true. You, conversely, have just openly left room for you to join any of the wagons that forms of your pleasing.

Also, I'm with Thor. Why is Sims specifically scum out of that group? I'd pick anyone besides him based off the reaction. That's a pretty flimsy read that, again, looks more like you put it there for convenience of mobility than anything else.
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Post Post #431 (isolation #31) » Tue Dec 28, 2010 6:53 pm

Post by AGar »

Feck me, I need to be more coherent in the head when I'm posting.

Meant to include that the BQ scumread was based off of the timing, nature and attitude of that one vote. That's why I'm laughing at a townread based off of "posting." Scumread wasn't based off of posting, it was based off of the vote and situations surrounding it.
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Post Post #435 (isolation #32) » Wed Dec 29, 2010 6:57 am

Post by AGar »

Five Day Deadline Extension Yes
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Post Post #482 (isolation #33) » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:37 am

Post by AGar »

Lat - Offering to cut a deal with the SK does not constitute pro-town action. By ignoring the wagon, I more mean "tried to avert it in any way possible," than actually not responding to it. If you think any player will completely ignore a player... then that's just bad play.

Anyways. Trying to desperately avert a wagon who claims an anti-town role isn't a pro-town action, like you're cracking it up to be.

I fail to see any outlying cause to believe SS is scum. Saying "She hasn't presented herself in a readable manner." doesn't constitute a case, especially coming from a player like Recka. Just because you can't read a player doesn't mean that they aren't making themselves readable. Just means you aren't trying.

Lat's attacks on both myself and SS are really,
really
weak. His attack on SS is baseless, while his attack on me consists of "I don't want to die, so I'm going to pick at something awful in the hopes that it sticks."

I'm very comfortable with my vote where it's sitting.
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Post Post #524 (isolation #34) » Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:03 am

Post by AGar »

I've been asked to claim? Piss off.

The wagon isn't on me? And singer is under pressure now?

Welp, I should read her, because I'm obviously missing something, although I'd much rather attack Lat and see him lynched.

Reckamonic - You're right, I'm not refuting your case. I'm not inclined to bother.

As for iamausername - The difference between me on Lat and Lat on me is thus - my attack on Lat (then Carrotcake) was based off an actual suspicion, and I had really no pressure on me or motivation to even out a counterwagon of any sort. Lat comes in, votes one way, then after realizing pressure isn't getting off of him he votes on the next largest wagon. It looks like 100% panic.
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Post Post #535 (isolation #35) » Thu Jan 06, 2011 2:56 pm

Post by AGar »

lol.
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Post Post #538 (isolation #36) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:10 am

Post by AGar »

Lat, Recka, powerrox.

That's my call.
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Post Post #547 (isolation #37) » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:21 pm

Post by AGar »

I'm not going to claim, you can hammer.
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Post Post #945 (isolation #38) » Sun Jan 30, 2011 1:11 am

Post by AGar »

Honestly, this was a tough earned win for town, but scum had it's mistakes. As I pointed out, Nacho self-hammering when he hit L-1 or shortly thereafter might have completely saved the game. Recka (I'm assuming Reck was the dominant personality in this game - it seemed it quite often) wouldn't have had the opportunity to slip in the nature in which he did. PR might've JKed someone else, kill gone through and then a different LYLO.

Scum was a bit slighted, but not enough that it affected the game's outcome. Neighborizer didn't do anything, and I don't think Lat got a successful watch off, so the only role that played a part at all was the JK, which only came through at the end to bite them. If Nacho had investigated PR on N2, this game would've gone in a completely different direction, I think.

Why did Nacho investigate Recka on N4? o.O
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Post Post #949 (isolation #39) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 3:49 am

Post by AGar »

xRECKONERx wrote:AGar, the point isn't that he got a successful watch, it's that his claim gelled with the JK claims and made it nigh impossible for scum to break the setup with massclaim.
How is this bad? You guys brought the massclaim idea into play, and it backfired? It's not like town said "Hey guys, I think a massclaim can win us this game!" and it did.

Also, I don't think the massclaim made such a huge deal. I think if the second to last day had been significantly shorter, the endgame may have played out very differently. You might not have made the slip that led PR to JKing you, leading to a very different endgame.
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