Mini 1346: Flavorless Mafia - GAME OVER
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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#3- Slight town read on Psyche. I've read the whole thread already but even when I read it earlier it was pretty evident he was fishing for reactions.
#11 by Elli is humorous
#13 makes FatCat likely town unless Psyche is scum- could have easily left an opening there for a later bandwagon but decided to call the bad logic of psyche votes out.
Actually scratch that, FatCat was already voting Psyche. So whatever, it means nothing for now. That's just weird.
#16 makes psyche a bit more townie, its actually the "I came into the game with a goal to end RVS in the first post", yeah scum could say that too but the delivery of it gives me good vibes.
#30= farside slight town. I agree with the stance she took on Junpei.
#44= farside slight town. I was going to ask FatCat if he was an alt at the end of this post. I like that our minds are going the same places.
#55=Psyche and Fatcat aren't mafia together. That's just not scum talking to scum.
#57=is good posting
I need lunch. Can someone explain Jun-town?
When I get back I'll finish up.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Okay, Psyche and Fatcat are probably town.
I was going to say DLG was scum up until his last post but the fact he pointed out the thing about me not saying anything in detail about delta...idk, thats pretty observant for a maf. It kind of absolved my "hey I'm comfortable lynching this guy" to more of a "there are probably better lynches out there" right now.
Anyway, the explanation for the goodposting is Delta's use of "you're appealing to his ego by saying x" was what influenced me to think Delta was posting well. I'm not sold on him being town yet.
I'm still waiting on someone to explain junpei to me, multiple people have said it but 1. Im not getting those vibes and 2. I havent seen anything specific.
Mild Town: Psyche, Fatcat
Slight town: Farside
Neutral: Elli, Iknal, DLG, Delta, Junpei
No scum reads yet.
Vote Jun.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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I didn't like the initial Psyche vs DLG exchange, I thought it was obvious Psyche was reaction fishing and his initial push was overeager.
Also the Fatcat vs DLG exchange where he says to diffuse the argument but doesn't/ gets on to FatCat.
But then the last post...idk, in the early parts of the game I find people who think like me, who are in my mindset.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Like, what DLG did there is a something that indicates he is in the townie mindset. Looking very detailed into the posts. Show's he's paying attention.
If I had already been pushing him, or if I was on his bandwagon, or if I leading town, if I was a competing wagon, etc, then as scum he'd have every reason to pick apart my posts and try to discredit me. But I was of no threat to him and he is really looking at things carefully. Possible as scum, but less likely to come from them.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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I have a null on Jun, maybe ever so slight scum.
I'm voting him because three people have called him town...The reasons I have seen:
Junpei: The sane one in the group. Mostly feeling town here
You had a chance to make it L-1 against me, and didn't, in fact you did the opposite, made it clear to me I had to explain myself better instead of squabbling with Farcry, now that I have you're saying I look innocent. This in my eyes makes it 100% certain that you're a townie.
^-Although I think FatCat is town for that upon reread, its bad bad logic. In a nine player game there is totally a chance scum would defend a townie and help him avoid a lynch, especially if he's new. You'll wind up unknowingly becoming his bitch later in the game.
I don't particularly think Junpei's reliance on logic is a town tell. But, the follow-up question to Psyche regarding purpose of the reaction tests and what results would have been indicative redeemed him from his first post. I have a slight Town feel on him, now. His vote for me makes sense from his persepctive of logic dictating actions.
^ If we are talking about early game questions from his Junpei ISO #0-2, then this is shitty too. Those questions were empty farside, you even said so yourself. Or bland, purposeless. W/E.
His whole ISO reads like that to me, and he has posted the most while saying the least. I really don't like all the town reads on him either, so this is where my vote is going.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Nah, agreeing with a read is way different than agreeing with the thought process. I shouldn't have to explain the difference to you. This whole games is about means, not ends. I'm looking to see where people are getting reads. I was having trouble reading FatCat and literally the first thing that came to my mind was to ask if he was an alt or played elsewhere. Seeing Farside take the same course of action strengthens my confidence that she is thinking and approaching things in a manner in which she is trying to figure things out and look at many aspects, instead of just trying to be/look right or push a lynch through.
I wasn't saying you were posting the most in content, I guess a better way to phrase that is post:content ratio. I feel like the questions you ask don't really lead anywhere productive, and you're pushing other people to do your legwork for you with them.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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As true as that is, for every scum adding fuel to the fire there is also usually one sitting back trying to appeal to certain players.
Now I could go lulz-guano crazy and assert that Junpei is doing that with FatCat early-game, but I'd be bullshitting you because I'm nowhere near that sure of any read yet. That being said, it is equally likely, in my opinion, that scum would be fighting or trying to resolve issues, which is why FatCats logic on Junpei town is bad. If scum really played a certain way every time this game would be pretty dull.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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By the way, I replaced in, its not like I've been sitting here waiting for the DLG wagon to pick up or slow down.
Also, I get what you're saying, but why is scenario A more probable than scenario B?
A: I'm scum, trying to set you up against Junpei
B: I'm town, I think you're town, and I think Junpei might be scum. I see you giving him town credit for a bad reason and I point it out, especially since you are more susceptible being new on the site.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Lul Elli's town
So Psyche-Elli-FatCat are town
Farside probs town
Elli we can claim tomorrow after we lynch scum today just in case our inv role is tracker k
Im assuming we have an inv role, a prot role, and a mafia role to counter inv role+prot role (gf, rb, etc), just because I don't see any other combination if this is a "simple" game of mafia-
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In post 163, Deltabacon wrote:Okay, so to clarify, im explaining my questioning against junpei, and defending myself.
- i dont have a scunread o you, but I think this is you being lazy town, Psyche.
Ellibereth, on the other hand, has essentially lurked all game, and their only comment has been to suggest a massclaim based on an appeal to probability. Putting me at L-1 without even contributing to thr case people have built on me? I honestly dont see how more people do not see you as scummy. Im at L-1, so if people want to have a claim, ill claim. Ill be active for the next few hours in any case.
Just claim, this is probably going to happen today.
Elli I'm thinking a popcorn claim then. Honestly at this point if both of my null reads are town PRs and I dont suck, we've won the game. I'm confident in Elli+Psych town, and fairly confident in Farside+FatCat town. 2 more town to add to the pile only leaves 2 viable lynches left.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 178, FatCat wrote:Because you came in and saved his bacon when he was L-1 and was looking as guilty as sin.
Is that that difficult to understand?
I didn't even remotely defend DLG. I said I thought he was scum up until his last post and now he was null. "Better lynches out there" is like all I've said on him. I could have easily thrown him into my multitude of townreads, especially after Elli did but I didn't.
If you really think DLG is scum, the first place to look would be on the DeltaBacon counterwagon.
I might have some interesting shit up later, not for sure if I wanna do the legwork of partner exclusions before mass claim, which we are going to do today.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 180, FatCat wrote:I don't know why you included a picture of Willy Wonka, because the Roald Dahl book which most closely relates to you and your cronies is "The Twits".
haha-
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Nothing, its what you and Delta did. Your play seems a lot more townie, particularly your push on FatCat, and even more particulary the fact you quoted my post about PRs, it showed you were really trying to pick his brain. However your push didn't seem aggressive or opportunistic, like scum finding a fake "scumslip" and trying to back the person into a corner.
Once again, Delta's claim makes him tentatively town. If we wind up mass claiming and nothing seems to interfere, he's town. If we really decide not to mass claim, then I will probably reassess where he goes on the list.
I'm working the opposite way as a lot of people do. Most look for scum. I do that to, but I typically do it by PoE: Knock out who I think is town, due partner exclusions, then choose the lynch from there. Here's a method of what I usually do, and you can look at it in any of my past games (thoughy by now i do admittedly have 1-2 scum reads by page 10 or so, its a smaller game and im finding it a bit harder):
Players 1-9 are playing a game. I'm pretty sure 1,2,3,4 are all town. I'll be player number 5.
I see interactions that make 6 and 8 look highly unlikely (like 8 leading a wagon on 6), and see some really heavy buddying between 6 and 9. I can confidently say:
6's only possible partner is 7. Therefore, if my reads are correct, there's 0-1 scum between (6,7) and 1-2 between (8,9)
Then Id list out all the different combinations and see which pairings were most likely. Thats what I meant by partner exclusions earlier. I find the game WAY more manageable to play this way then just trying to figure out scum individually (I suck at single scum tells).-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 226, Junpei wrote:In post 179, Slaxx wrote:I said I thought he was scum up until his last post and now he was null.
I don't understand how you have a scum read go null then.. but whatever it's honestly not important, I get what you're doing and this is probably a terminology disparity.
Uh FatCat, I have issue (and so do most people) with premature claims on principle. Also I think it's known by everyone who has ever played with me and remembers me that I take notes, in fact I reference them every game I'd think. When I said giving up your role, I didn't mean necessarily Vanilla Townie, I was more referring to Mafia Goon.
Oh, well I'd prefer to be clear. I guess I don't get what you're saying either.
A scum can go null if he does something townie if thats what you mean-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Ah, no, I never explained that. I get what you were saying.
I thought he was scum before I had even replaced in (I was reading along and jumped when I saw the replacement)
Mainly his jump on psyche looked REALLY opportunistic. There was more but I'd have to look through his ISO. Recognition over Recall. If you want I can add it to my things to do list and do it the same time as partner exclusions.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 230, FatCat wrote:Point one was only an appetizer for point two.
The cat has caught the dog.
I don't give a shit
If emphasizing things is scummy, such as saying "I take notes", then saying "my role (vanilla townie)" after you JUST claimed it is scummy too.
And you can't really deny that train of thought.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 237, FatCat wrote:Sorry Junpei, I don't talk to mafia, direct your questions elsewhere, I'm not going to help you.
Holy crap if youre actually town youre gonna have some splainin to do-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 259, Ellibereth wrote:P.S.
I NO LEAVE YET
SPEED REVISE
Iknal is Town
Psyche is Town
Junpei is Town
Slaxx is Town
Delta obv (sorry >.<)
farside
fatcat
DLG
left
yeahyeah
BYE
Elli. Iknal Town?
Meh, only if FatCat is scum.
Also, DLG+Fatcat I think is improbable. If DLG had pushed psyche AFTER fatcat, I would say impossible, but since Fatcat seems to be reckless I can see him pushing the same person his buddy did, though I still feel its unlikely.
Psyche, Junpei, Delta, Slaxx, Elli. All town.
(Farside, Iknal, FatCat, DLG): not so much.
I will do partner exlusions probably tomorrow, I would prefer no one eactually hammer or anything until after I shovel them out.
Elli, for obvious reasons don't WIFOM the prot target, since youre not doctor. preaching to the choir etc but just a reminder.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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In post 271, Junpei wrote:In post 269, Slaxx wrote:Anyway like I said partner exclusions up tomorrow after my short shift at work, I'd prefer no one hammer before idk 5PM or so
When you write it all up, can you have reasons for each association/disassociation?
Always
They're never definite but things that are "less likely" etc
Only having 12 (4x4-4) combinations to work with is cool too, though I guess I could do 30 (6x6-6) @_@ depends on how busy I am-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Slaxx wrote:Farside DLG FatCat Iknal Junpei Psyche Farside DLG FatCat Iknal Junpei Nahhh Plaus Plaus Possi----- ----- Psyche Nahhh Nahhh PossiPossiPossi-----
Key: Most Likely Scum Pairing<--- Likely --- Maybe--- Possi --- Plaus --- Nahhh --->Probably not paired
-Note that my pairings take into account single scum probability (ie even if Elli and Delta worked well together theyd get a )
Okay so lets start, I guess.
Spoiler: Psyche +Everyone
Spoiler: Junpei+Everyone
I'm sorry guys I cant get anymore done tonight. I'm tired and there are kids outside my apartment blowing high pitch whistles and they have been for the past half hour
anything else I gave you at this point would be me bullshitting you and myself
I'll get more done tonight if possible but it might wait until tomorrow. Right now, Junpei and Psyche don't really work well with anyone which is further evidence they're both probstown. I'm gonna go grab some caffeine and maybe go intimidate a few youth in the meantime.
Fixed tags... I think. - AmrunLast edited by Amrun on Tue Jun 19, 2012 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Okay sorry guys, went up to Ft Wayne to retrieve some stuff so I spent the last 11/24 hours on the road.
SO.
Combinations I haven't gone over:
(DLG, FatCat)-Very unlikely given the back and forth earlier this game.
(DLG, Farside)-A very possible team; Farside multiple times says DLG is scum or DLG votes are good but never votes DLG, there's also a few instances where Farside seems to soft defend DLG, or chinsaw FatCat's attacks on DLG (Just CTrL+F DLG in Farside's ISO).
(DLG, KK)-Possible, considering Iknal/KK works with almost everyone due to lack of content (not your fault KK I know), also there is definitely a defense of DLG in the FatCat vote post (#252)
(Farside, FatCat)-Probably not happening, DLG+Farside is way more likely based on my above analysis.
(Farside, KK)-Once again, it works.
(Fatcat, KK)-Less likely than the other two paired with Iknal/KK.
So here's my thing.
#252 feels like Iknal had already made up his mind before he started posting about FatCat, and although that could just mean he followed up a gut vibe with a case, the post just twinges my gut the wrong way. The vote doesn't really drive discussion forward and his whole ISO reeks of just getting on a wagon and making sure his position there looks justified, there's hardly any actual scumhunting even for what little content he has.
Junpei is my strongest nonclear townread.
Followed by Psyche, who is probably only scum if FatCat flips scum, and even then I'm not for sure I'd lynch Psyche first after a FatCat flip. Basically, FatCat town=Junpei town. The problem with this is no one works well with FatCat as scum, meaning either someone did some decent bussing or it is the Psych. It would be a hard decision for me because Psych is definitely a pretty confident town read. So honestly, I'm actually expecting FatCat to flip town though I don't necessarily oppose the lynch, as if I'm right I can rest easy about Psych and have 1 clear and 2 town strong reads going into a 7 player game tomorrow.
I think the most likely to be town in (DLG, Farside, KK, FatCat) is DLG.
So teams that work:
Any team with KK in them
DLG/Farside
FatCat/Psyche
So thats that. Also, a FatCat scum flip means DLG town.
I'm up for a lynch in either Iknal (strongest scum read) or FatCat (think he is a little more likely to flip town, but we get to strike out a lot of possibilities if he flips scum and can let psych off the hook if he's town).
Investigation wise, I don't see why we wouldn't investigate KK at this point unless his next post rains down towniness from the heavens or whatever.-
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I'll just point out everything specifically:
#69: The read on DLG is full of bad mojo, you say you call him town sometimes and then whaaaaat (:P) other times and then (if I understand correctly) say the only reason you're not voting him is because Delta is a better wagon but you never really push on him at all.
#274: After the third FC quote.
Also, you seem to be pushing on people who suspect DLG around the same time they suspect DLG, but your ISO indicates you think DLG is scum (despite the latest post where you FoS FC/Junpei)-
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#274-
"Vote for DLG is good."
#69-
"DLG: moments I think town and moments I go whaaaaatttt. I don't like the few moments where I felt he followed me (FC vote) or the congrates post (seeing his comment as a scretch). Not liking Deltabacon more or his vote or his comment leads me off the wagon."
That is most definitely saying you find DLG scummy (or at the very leat unsettling) but DeltaBacon more scummy. I'm not for sure thats really even open to interpretation.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Okay fuck i finally get it
You were saying that Delta's voteonDLG was what led you away from the wagon.
GOT IT.
Alright, the pair is still possible but I don't think its among my favorites anymore.
I'm alright with a FatCat lynch
FatCat flips mafia-> Investigate Psyche
Fatcat flips town-> Investigate whoever
Still want KK's analysis and such before we go into night.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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-I've already explained this first point. Reading the game when you aren't in it and trying to find scum is a completely different experience than getting a role PM and knowing:
1. What you do now has impact on the game (rereading the game thoroughly and dedicating an appropriate amount of time to scumhunting, which of course is more than a person not playing, and of course is best accomplished by rereading and combing through the thread)
2. You are responsible for your actions and opinions (once again, now that you are playing an active and influential part in the game, you want to make sure youre confident in reads)
3. You have to communicate your thoughts (the most important: you need to have specific evidence from the thread, quotes, post numbers, etc, which is of course best accomplished by rereading. How else am I supposed to consicely and effectively communicate my opinions? "Oh in that one post around page 3" or "Post 62"...Obviously second. And since I did not have to communicate as a third party observer, I naturally had no notes or post numbers written down)
I'm surprised I even have to explain this. KK's first point it literally "He reread the thread after role PM, this makes him scum" when I think its pretty obvious this is a null tell: the best way to do a catchup post is to have the thread ready and on hand and go through and comment on things. This isn't something I should have to explain.
-Yeah, look back at the game we played where you were scum and I was town. I'm always eager to claim my role (its the desert game hosted by UN kahn), I did it pretty sporadically there too. I was town. VT, actually. The night talk thing is BS, I am pretty sure I outlined why waiting one day might be better. Also, I don't know if its anywhere ON the site, but Reg and I agree a lot that the best time to claim is after a Scum roleblocker flip if there is one. In this case, a single scum PR flip would be enough for me to advocate it the next day.
-And yeah, my posts ARE scumhunting, I've explained how I scumhunt and you know how I do it Kahn, I did a similiar thing in your game. Look at it from my point of view: There 2 clears, possibly a third tomorrow, and I have two strong town reads. I don't have to find scum, I literally have an extra lynch if a town read is wrong, or if something fucks with the cop. Literally all I have to do is see if anyone doesn't fit with anyone else and then use PoE to find the best lynch. Why try to find the two scum in the group of four, which by the way I'm terrible at and have already explained that, and instead just PoE the fuck out of the game by excluding partners? It works so much better for me and its even MORE advantageous here because of the amount of clears and obvtown there are.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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1. this is beating a dead horse. I'll say one more time, and re iterate my last point: there is a difference between following along and playing. I'm not gonna waste anymore time on this point:
-In order to communicate specifics from the thread, the easiest way to do that is to reread and comment on things as I go. I didn't give any reads at all during that first half I don't think, any scum reads anyway. I was waiting to get through the thread.
2. Okay true, those are both valid separate reasons. If we had a tracker, then they should stay hidden, obviously. They can't get roleblocked hidden and are utterly useless for gathering clears until one scum remains, which can only happen post-day-1. Either way, waiting makes sense from a town point of view. I finally just caved in and claimed later just like I randomly claimed in Desert as town.
3. Your reading comprehension sucks then. I have specifically said (Elli/Psyche/Delta/Junpei) are all almost deftown, with Elli and Delta being deftown. And I had Elli as almost for sure town before that claim. I am not really playing the safe game at all: I have 2 very strong town reads that I highly doubt I will budge from. And recently, I said DLG feels more likely to be town than the other three too. Naturally, then, I am ok with lynching in between (Farside/You/FatCat). I shouldn't have to explicitly state those as my scumreads, it should be pretty implied. And I finished the chart in that post with spoilers, btw. I just didn't bother coding it because fuck coding it.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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"Elli we can claim tomorrow after we lynch scum today just in case our inv role is tracker k"
I was saying this because Tracker is useless until 1 scum is left (and by useless i just mean gathering innos, it can get a guilty but the odds are slim).
Basically, there is little reason to out tracker early. Not only the innos w/ 1 scum thing, but also since scum know the tracker, they can choose which one of them makes the kill, which of course will be the person the tracker is less likely to track.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.ph ... 1#p3121601
^ Me spontly claiming VT, I don't think this is the only time I've done it though that might be false, idk. I remembered it cuz kahn was there.-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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I think the one of the reasons I changed was Delta was going to claim, and I had a feeling it was gonna PR if I recall, which is why I just told him to claim because the mass claim was happening anyway (#176)
ANYWAY REASONS THAT ITS BAD JUNPEI:
As I mentioned: If there's a tracker, there are so many disadvantages for them to claim early:
1. Can't gather Innos
2. Even less likely to catch scum because they can choose who makes kill
3. They can get roleblocked
Other problems:
1 . The prot role I figured we had would be outted
2. If it is cop, watcher, etc they could be RBed if there is one-
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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Slaxx Jack of All Trades
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