Mini 1368 (Game Over)

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VOTE: Idiotking

His avatar is not of an idiot king.

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UNVOTE:
VOTE: Cheery Dog

Why place a vote on someone for convoluted reasoning if you think your scum read on them is going to be temporary?

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It's RVS, any read gained at this stage is temporary, I have no idea if it's going to move into a full scum read or change into a town read. It being a very weak read means that I don't trust it. I'm sorry if me explaining the full level of a read thus far as confused you.

How do you see his preference for circles over triangles to be related to his alignment enough to be translated into any level of a read? Why did you avoid participating in RVS in your first post of the game?

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Basketballstar's reasoning of the preference for circles just confused me as there is no real angle in a circle, since there is only the one line. To put the analogy in complicatedness; he must be wanting all of us connected and be attacking each other while getting nowhere. If it were a triangle, there would most likely be three sides attacking each other for the advantage.
I believe that as town, being laid out as a triangle formation will serve us better.

This is stretching very hard. It's one thing to push someone over some minor tell and call it a weak scum read just to get things out of RVS or whatnot, but it just feels like you're trying way too much to make yourself look pro-active.

Lupo, Paschendale, do you have a read on CD?

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Melmond's posts strike me as somewhat scummy as it's page 3, he has four posts, and none of them directly pertain to the game. Melmond, who do you think is scum?

CD, we now have three pages of content to work with. Do you have any reads that don't derive from geometric psychology?

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At this point I don't have any scum reads, but I am starting to build some off of the way people are voting for this guy, over something utterly ridiculous.

Who do you think is suspicious?

I NEVER SAID I THOUGHT HE WAS TOWN. I said, I don't think he is scum.

There is a difference between "I don't think he is scum" and "I think he's null". The first, especially since you emphasized it and stated it multiple times, means that you think he's town. The latter means that you can't tell if he's scum or town. You don't think he's scum - what about his posts strike you specifically as something that scum would not do?

FUT's contradictions are scummy, although I don't think his overreaction is indicative of alignment. CD still seems scummier to me, but I could see them as scum together.

As for CD, his explanations for his reads don't strike me as genuine.

My reasoning for FUT is pretty much the same stuff pieceofpecanpie just brought up.
KK is there because I haven't liked his posts thus far (he is probably the weakest of all my current scumreads as I think I just don't like that playstyle)
and I still have BBS24 there because of his use of sarcasm in his second post, which hit me on the wrong foot.

He says FUT is suspicious for the same reasoning pecanpie gave, but if I understood correctly, pecanpie's argument was essentially that FUT is attempting to defend his scumbuddy CD. How can he agree with this exact reasoning? His scum read on BBS24 is also odd because he says it's for his use of sarcasm, but all BBS24 said was "[sarc]OMG your analysis is so good[/sarc]". CD, why do you think this is something scum would do? Specifically, what about "how it was done" seems particularly scummy?

His town reads also feel somewhat fabricated. The only explanation he gave for his town reads on Paschendale and Idiotking were that they "feel genuine", which by itself isn't necessarily horrible reasoning for a town read on page 4. But what strikes me is that, for instance, Paschendale only has 3 posts that are null at best.

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Paschendale, if FUT had only said "I don't think he is scum", I would agree with you that he might have just meant he had a null read or that CD's actions don't necessarily make him scum. But he said, "I have doubts he is actually scum" and that his actions don't seem "indicative of something scum would do". That's stronger than just "I don't think he is scum" and actively implies that he thinks CD is town.

My current scum reads in decreasing strength are Cheery Dog, FUT, and Melmond.

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CD, to clarify, are you saying your initial posts about geometry were insincere and only for the purpose of reaction-testing?

I also want to hear more from NS and KK. Hellhound, who do you think is scum?

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I really do not believe CD's geometric posts were all merely a big reaction test, and the reads he's posted as a result of it do not seem particularly impressive. So, CD, if this is a reaction test, where did you get the idea to do it? What did you read that made you think to try it?

His claim also seems rather fabricated to me. I would think that a town PR would be more concerned over revealing their PR-status and making themselves vulnerable to a nightkill rather than revealing their exact role, and his riddle is the perfect way to softclaim without being in danger of potential counterclaims.

Hellhound feels scummy to me as well, though. His posts feel overly cautious and the reads he gave out just seem reiterated from what other people have said.

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I disagree with pappums and triangle on hellhound.

He didn't really say that CD & FUT were scum, just that he saw instances of buddying which I saw as well.

Well, I also agree that it looks like CD and FUT could potentially be buddying, but I don't like Hellhound's ISO. Looking at his posts, it's hard to see much actual content coming out from him. He's asking a lot of questions of other players, which is fine, but there's not really any follow-up and he's not substantiating any opinions from whatever information he's gained from them. There are also a couple instances of IIoA (information instead of analysis), such as his post addressing pecanpie's miller claim from a theoretical point of view or the one calling out lurkers, which, combined with the way he cautiously words weak scum reads on the top two wagons and nothing else, makes him very scummy.

Having written that, I'm now tempted to do this... UNVOTE: , VOTE: Hellhound1.

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Your second count of buddying pappums rat. Nicely done.

It's absolutely shocking, isn't it? I found someone scummy... that another player also thought was scummy! And I even contributed my own original reasons for doing so! Call the Sheep Police!

I'm not even going to try to point out the irony here.

First bit i've bolded, its called "gathering information". Second bit, why would I? It's five pages in, half of the players havent posted anything of worth. Theres been no reason for me to shout my opinion out at people.

Gathering information, as I stated in the bit you bolded, is perfectly fine. What differentiates a town player from a scum player, though, is that a town player gathers information and uses it to form opinions, reads, etc. A scum player, however, asks questions to look busy. And that second one is what I believe you're doing. I totally understand that many players don't have fully-formed reads early on in the game, but there's again a difference between not having solid reads yet and trying to look busy while sheeping the two wagons.

Haha. Firstly, FUT was hardly a wagon, so stop trying to make me sound scummy, and stick to the facts.

I'd say that when many people start attacking a certain person, it's a wagon. If you want to use different terminology, whatever. My point stands.

Secondly, i was the first person to post my unhappiness at Nobody Special, and now he's being bandwagoned, so your theory falls flat on its face there.

Not even close. You took it easy and called out some lurkers, which, coupled with your other dodgy ways, is classic scum behavior. Then other people found NS scummy, and now you're jumping on the wagon.

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CD, what are your thoughts on Hellhound?

I also think NobodySpecial is very inactive and is not contributing to the game.

Do you think NS is scummy?

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NS, who are your scumreads?

Lupo's #155 was a bit scummy but #162 is even more so. His reasoning and scumhunting has been lackluster thus far, and his hop on the NS wagon is sheepy and hasty. I agree with pecanpie that a Hellhound-Lupo team definitely makes sense.

My scumreads in roughly decreasing order now are Hellhound, Lupo, Cheery Dog, and Melmond. I had found FUT scummy but killerjester makes me have the slot as a town read for now.

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Can you elaborate on your Melmond read? You said he was scummy because his first 4 posts had no real content. How has your read changed since then?

I don't like his interactions with Cheery Dog and NS. For CD, he played along with the geometry and then just posted filler without commenting on him at all until other players started to jump on CD and question him about it. Only then did he vote for CD with unoriginal reasoning. He got off that wagon pretty quickly and hopped onto NS, and then jumped off that when the NS wagon started to get some criticism.

Killerjester, you seem to find Lupo scummy. Who else do you think is scum?

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And do you think doing something unnecessary is scummy? What scum motivation do you think there is for having four scumreads?

You say I'm your top scumread, so who else do you think is scum?

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So... I'm scumhunting to make up for my lack of scumhunting?

Am I your only scumread?

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Oh, in case it wasn't clear, I actually don't have a scumread on NS. I just want him to be a little more active in the game and comment on some of the events of the game that have transpired so far so that I can get a better read on him.

So given the game in its current state, I'd be happy with a Hellhound or Lupo lynch. Either one is scummy enough to warrant it, and either flip will provide valuable information that can be examined in Day 2.

I agree with this. I also wouldn't mind a CD lynch.

@triangle123 - What's your read on Paschendale?

I have a town read on him. From what I know about him, his playstyle generally isn't aggressive and he doesn't usually push his scumreads that much, and his posts here come off as genuine to me.

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Not voting for bbstar makes sense given the deadline, but voting for Hellhound instead does not. CD, can you clarify what you meant by this?

Therefore I'm testing the theory via a lynch that is likely to happen anyway.

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@mod: Please prod Hellhound.

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If Hellhound doesn't return in some reasonably expedient fashion, I'm moving my vote to Lupo.

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@triangle123 - You don't have any comment on recent game happenings?

I do. I want CD to answer my question first, though.

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Quick thoughts because I have to go soon.

I don't see bbstar's mislynch comment as a scumslip, and the way he explained it was pretty much what I had interpreted from his comment when I first read it. CD's jump on it, especially the odd reasoning (if it's a scumslip, then how can it be a distancing strategy?), is scummy, and after we get a flip, I'll definitely be reviewing his ISO Day 2.

Melmond and CD's jump on PoPP for weird reasoning also stands out to me. I need to review their interactions Day 2 as well in light of the flip.

As for Hellhound, I'm inclined not to believe him if he claims PR, but I don't want to lynch him without a claim in the chance that he has a role that can be proved, especially given that there's a second wagon on someone who is just as scummy. I didn't realize Hellhound was on V/LA, but since he just got off, we should be hearing from him soon.

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I don't think Pecanpie's miller claim is anything but null, because it's certainly not unheard of for scum to pull a miller gambit, and he's not confirmed town in the slightest. However, I do have a town read on him, and while I agree the "confirmed town" statement isn't exactly the greatest play in the world, I don't think it's scummy.

To clear 3 up some more (I thought someone had asked about that, but I can't find who), BBS is distancing himself from the lynch while still finding HH to be scummy, the post of BBS's in question said to me "save my buddy". I believe it was a scumslip and the "mislynch" in question was that he didn't want to lynch someone he knew to be on his team, thus it would be a mislynch from scum's point of view. Though I can also see Lupo being the buddy in question to be saved.

Wait, maybe I'm not understanding you correctly, but if BBS and Hellhound are buddies, why would he be distancing himself from the lynch? That's a term to describe scum trying to see uninvolved in a mislynch in order to get town cred. I really don't see why scum would use "mislynch" like that. Your explanation seems contrived.

Hellhound's flake isn't indicative of alignment. Both townies and scum can get scared off by a lot of pressure.

Because I have said many times I do not believe in a HellHound Lynch. I just don't see the case.

What about the case doesn't ring true to you?

Meh I think Hellhound1 is trying to lurk now, since we got him into position. If he doesn't roleclaim or post a defense in a span of one day, I'll hammer him. Reasons: Lurking (trying to get us to lynch someone else), and no good defenses. Considering our deadline, he might as well be our lynch for Day 1.

This post is scummy to me; he's trying to justify the hammer too hard.

PoPP really hasn't been looking good his last few posts. And before that there was a lot of fluff. I really think we should take a good look at him. I would also agree that if there is a vig here it would be good to shoot him at some point before LYLO, rather than waste a lynch on him. But I'd say we should wait a while, not shoot him now, because if he is indeed a town miller, he might be able to help town out.

And this post is just loaded with waffling and sheeping.

It is not part of the actual gameplay so kindly refrain from using it to further your cause.

Uh, yeah, it does relate to gameplay. Your question reads like you're looking for mod justification to go ahead with the Hellhound lynch instead of waiting to hear a claim from the slot or see what the replacement has to say.

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How exactly am I sheeping? I was the first to get on his case about him using his miller claim as proof he's town, pappums rat is the only person who said anything about him having proof of being town before me. Post 249 is where I brought this out. I think its ridiculous that he's trying to ride this game out on his claim.

Oh, sorry, that's my mistake. I forgot you were the first one so I guess I thought you were sheeping yourself. Whoops.

BBS is trying too hard with the Hellhound lynch, first with the overly-justified hammer and then with his flip-floppiness about Hellhound's replacement. I think a Hellhound lynch would give more information about BBS and other players than vice versa, so for that reason I still prefer lynching him today. I'm equally good with a BBS or Lupo lynch as second choice, though.

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This might be a dumb question, so apologies if I'm having a stupid moment, but why can't we let him live to LyLo, assuming he doesn't do anything lynch-worthy beforehand? His claim is more or less equally likely to have been from town as scum so if we just judge him off his actions in LyLo, what's the problem?

That said, if there is a reason he can't live to LyLo, I do agree with pappums that it's better off he's vigged instead of lynched. A pecanpie lynch would give almost no information since it would amount to what is essentially a policy lynch, and his flip would give the same amount of information if it came out of a vig at night than if it came out of a lynch at day.

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I need to look at some ISOs and I'll be back tomorrow with a list of reads and probably a vote. Off the top of my head, I want to take a closer look at Lupo, BBS, CD, and Melmond.

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Quick check-in and prod-dodge. I lost internet over the weekend and have just regained it, expect a post to be up tonight.

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VOTE: Lupo

I did some cross-iso's and his definitely strikes me as the scummiest. I don't like his waffling over CD in the beginning of Day 1, when he quoted CD's posts about angles/circles and only wrote "wtf". When I asked him what his read on CD was, he just said that it's null but strange, and didn't offer up reads on anyone else. Two posts later, he suddenly had a scum read on CD but no one else, but said that he would give CD "one more chance" before actually voting him, which strikes me as odd because someone is either scummy or not scummy, especially since he didn't have any other scumspects. However, he never actually laid a vote down on CD and continued to not give reads, and of course, his scummy jump onto the NS wagon has been beaten to death so I won't go into it, but I do believe this argument holds merit. And finally, I really don't like his interactions with Hellhound because by consistently saying "I don't agree with this case" but not trying to stop it, it looks like he was really just trying to get town cred.

I still need to do an iso on Melmond, but I thought it would be more important for me to get some content out first and catch up with the day so far.

Hmmm, diving straight into wagons and no comment on the lack of nightkill?

I don't think there's much to say since set-up speculation won't be fruitful at this time. Why do you think this is something significant to be touched upon?

BBS' claim was odd and anti-town, but I don't think it's indicative of alignment since it could be either misguided town or frustrated scum. I do still dislike his interactions with the Hellhound wagon towards the end of Day 1, though.

NS needs to post, but I don't think voting him will help.

Here is a tentative list of reads in some approximation of strength.

Town: Idiotking, pappums rat, killerjester, Kublai Khan, Paschendale
Leaning Town: Cheery Dog, pecanpie
Null: Nobody Special
Leaning Scum: Melmond
Scum: Lupo, BBS

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Can you elaborate on your CD read? I thought you had him pegged as scummy to some degree.

Sure. I did think CD was scummy at the start of Day 1 with the geometric arguments, but his later posting definitely improved and, as someone else mentioned, the fact that he asked Hellhound's replacement to give reads during twilight struck me as a small town-tell. I also originally thought his jump onto BBS the previous day phase was weird but then I realized that I was interpreting the situation differently from him. He's not a strong town read of mine but at the moment I think he's townier than he is scum, if that makes sense.

That said, I do agree that BBS is being either useless town or total scum. I'm leaning more toward scum at this point.

Why do you find BBS scummy?

Nobody Special mind as well put up a sign on his door that reads "Please Do Not Disturb, I'm Murdering Townies".

I agree his lurking is somewhat annoying, but I find him hard to read as opposed to scummy. Have you played with him before, and if so, do you think his behavior is consistent with his scum meta?

Uh...Hmm. You are "scum hunting" by placing a vote for "pressure" on player who has pretty much handled the most pressure he can get. I mean he's already claimed and everything. What exactly were you pressuring for?

Until I get an answer, my votes going back on
VOTE: NS

This comes across as sheepy to me. Furthermore, if you think he's scummy, why is your vote only until you get an answer? Surely he must appear quite scummy to you for you to shift your vote from someone else onto him.

I'd consider a policy lynch on a decent target an option. Lupo, for example, appears to be doing another fading act and if his flip doesn't favour town, than looking closely at his wagon may.

If I understand this correctly, you consider a Lupo lynch a policy lynch. Do you think he's more likely to flip scum than town or vice versa? (Sorry if you mentioned Lupo earlier and I missed it; I just skimmed your ISO really quickly for a recent read on him and didn't see one.)

Pre-edit: Ugh, let's not have an NS lynch when there is more discussion and better targets to be had.

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I actually don't see pecanpie's pursued lynch on Lupo as scummy. It's a bit unusual, but the motivation he described for it isn't unreasonable, not to mention that his reaction test on BBS was a good one.

BBS, you need to explain your vote on NS, now. I'm actually currently leaning towards BBS as derptown than scum just because I think that scum wouldn't wanted to be so obviously opportunistic, but I'll wait to hear his response to this.

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BBS is likely town. His vote on NS wasn't exactly the greatest one, but I definitely think it's something that would come from town rather than scum simply for that reason. It's true that scum might want an easy wagon to go through, but BBS' vote was just too obvious to be something scum would do. He just seems like a relatively inexperienced town player.

What information will we get from his flip?

I actually think there's quite a bit of information we could get from his flip, just by looking at the way his wagon builds up. Plus, he was the counterwagon for Hellhound, who was town, and is now the counterwagon to BBS, who I believe is town. I know looking at counterwagons isn't always accurate, but that's in addition to the points I outlined in #402.

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Melmond and Lupo, thoughts on BBS' hammer?

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Eh, it seems more like something newbtown would do than scum would.

Then why did you continue to vote him after the hammer if you thought it was something more likely to come from town?

You people. You should listen to reason, you know.

Can we hear some of your reasoning?

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I didn't know who I would move the vote to. And I didn't think to unvote right away.

But even after the "hammer", you still stated that you'd be in favor of a BBS lynch.

But if NS flips scum, then Lupo is essentially cleared. Why waste today's lynch on Lupo when NS looks scummier and that flip will tell us about Lupo?

But if NS flips town, then we don't really have much of anything in the way of information (and not that much for NS flipping scum to begin with), and there still has yet to be a convincing argument that NS is scum as opposed to anti-town. From my understanding, his lurking is something he does both as town and as scum, and I'd rather see him replaced than lynched.

Lupo, thoughts on BBS' "hammer"? (I think I asked you this earlier but I didn't see you respond - sorry if you did and I missed it.)

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I remembered posting something about the hammer but I can't find it either. Anyways I think it's insane that him posting what he thought was a hammer vote on somebody didn't get him lynched.

Yeah, this post is another example of why I find Lupo scummy (stating it's insane without actually giving a read, etc.).

I would be okay with a Lupo hammer at this point.

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Not much time to post, but in a semi-reversal of my reads, I think Melmond is town and pappums/Innocent is scum. I'm also inclined to believe CD's claim. Will post something more concrete tomorrow.

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Ugh, I'm in the awkward position where I seem to have town reads on practically everyone, and I actually now disagree with what I wrote before about suspecting pappums, so I'm going to use this post to re-evaluate my reads. I believe CD's claim because (1) he's been appearing townier to me since the start of Day 2ish and (2) his claim would be very risky as scum since pecanpie's miller claim implies there's a cop in the set-up. Even if pecanpie and CD are scum together, it's still quite risky to claim cop. If CD is town, Melmond is most likely town, barring bus driver or godfather or what-have-you. BBS, pecanpie, and killerjester are all fairly solid town reads of mine, so I'll eliminate them as well.

This leaves NS, Innocent, Idiotking, and KK.

A lot of NS' actual content strikes me as null just because he hasn't exactly been a huge contributor to the game or anything, and for a while I did suspect that his wagon was scum-driven simply because he seems like an easy target to jump on, but I agree with the analysis someone else made a few posts earlier in light of the flips about how NS' wagon was more town-driven. His interactions with Lupo seem to be mostly defensive since he makes statements like "I'm not really seeing the case on Lupo", but then later he flip-flopped a bit and called Lupo his second biggest scum read. That in conjunction with Lupo's interactions with NS makes me put him in the leaning town category.

As for Innocent, I did another review of pappums' iso and I'm not sure what I was thinking before but his iso strikes me as rather townish in that I agreed with a lot of what he said (at the time and in the context of the given post, of course) and his thinking processes felt very town and natural. From that, I'd say he's town, though I guess I'll have to wait for Innocent's vote and list of suspects to make a final decision.

Will finish up on Idiotking and KK tomorrow night and hopefully lay down a vote already.

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I actually agree with a good portion of killerjester's case on Idiotking, which coincides nicely with my planned reread of Idiotking's ISO. His initial posts in the game focused almost exclusively on FUT, and then all of a sudden he dropped the issue and never mentioned him again, turning instead to Hellhound and Lupo. I would expect someone who had such a strong early read on someone to follow up in some way, either by saying how they felt about the player that caused them to unvote or talking about FUT's replacement. Even odder, his listed reason for having Lupo as a scumread was because he agreed with something killerjester said, a slot he previously thought was scum.

This FoS is a bit scummy as well:

FOS Kublai Khan for basically saying that we should only focus on who is most likely to be lynched today. Why on Earth shouldn't we focus on other people before the deadline? That's just silly. Stop being silly, Kublai Khan.

The FOS implies that he found KK's actions suspicious, but then the last line shows that he thinks KK is just being silly, which in this context implies KK would be town instead of scum (since scum might have motivation to do what KK did, whereas someone being silly would be a town player being, well, silly).

I wrote up this large paragraph about how I found Idiotking's NS vote sketchy for more or less similar reasoning to what killerjester had, but then I realized that if he'd wanted easy pickings, he could have gone after him before. Still, though, I like the idea of an Idiotking vote right now.

I still need to look at KK but I'm pretty sure this is where I want my vote for now. So, VOTE: Idiotking.

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NS, you think Idiotking is scummy because he's defending himself?

Melmond, do you think NS and IK might be scum together, or do you just find them independently scummy?

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/prod-dodge

will post content tomorrow