mini 1410: mafia in the unknown (game over!)

[Chevre]

What I know is true:
- I am town.
- There is at least one player in this game who is not aligned with the town. Reasoning: If we were all town, the game would be over.
- There are more town than non-town. Reasoning: If there were more non-town then town, the game would be over.

What I assume to be true:
- There are at least two non-town players in this game. Reasoning: Most, if not all, Mini Normal games played on this site have had at least two non-town players.
- At this unbiased point in the game, each player that is not me has at least a 17% chance of being non-town. Reasoning: If I assume that at least two players are non-town, and I know I am town, then that makes at least 2 out of 12 players non-town. 2/12 = 1/6 = ~17%.

However, there is no inequality at this point, so a random vote is the best, as it prohibits bias in my own choice. So going down the playerlist as seen in the first post, and omitting my own username, I will vote for the player whose number comes up on a 12-sided die.

Original Roll String: 1d12

1 12-Sided Dice: (11) = 11

[Chevre]

vote: iamausername

[Chevre]

Norlkaz, could you explain a bit more specifically your vote? I'm confused why my words are worthy of an immediate lynch.

[Chevre]

CooLDoG - If we believe your theory that people don't willingly replace out of games in which they are not town, then we must also regard the fact that jeromus, the player which Norlkaz replaced, had not made a post since his post to /in for this game.

Norlkaz - My opening post is something new I wish to try; if you find it to be mundane then I'm sorry, but I feel it lays out my feelings in an organized manner.

[Chevre]

How does one differentiate town players calling players town because that's how they truly feel, and non-town players calling players town to latch onto an opportunity?

[Chevre]

You would agree that some town players voice their town reads, correct?

[Chevre]

Okay. How are town players to differentiate between those town players who are doing such a thing, and those non-town players who are voicing their town reads as to latch on to this opportunity to tell the truth you speak of?

[Chevre]

Norlkaz - Sorry I didn't make it more specific; what did you mean by such a request?

Shepherd Book - I'm going through a time where my thoughts on this game (the whole of Mafia, not just Mini 1410) are conflicted. I'm just very unsure whether or not there are truly psychological differences in town and non-town players, especially in a game where the stakes are very low. Therefore, it seems that odds are more trusty right now, but I cannot be sure where I will go from here.

[Chevre]

I don't think Chevre's question (which probably belongs in MD and not a game unless it is directly relevant) is another scumtell, but it certainly doesn't help.
He remains the best lynch.

UVApe gets minor townpoints for the "good scumhunting all" comment.

It is pertinent to our situation because already several people have given town reads, while you have stated that some who do this are town and others not. Is that what you meant by making my question more specific? If not, could you clarify? Also, could you explain why saying "good scumhunting all" makes UVApe more town? Especially when, by your own standards, people such as myself are not scumhunting in a "good" fashion.

I think ppl replace in games because they forget about it and get really far behind, have too many games going on, have real life issues that shift priorities, or get a role that is boring nothing and they have to be nothing for the 99th time when they were hoping for something fun/ new. everyone wants a fun power or some fun twist. Seems like those are the roles people would never give up (if they give up a role for a role related reason). But speculation on such matters seems ultimately fruitless. we should ask whoever ends up replacing iamausername .

Can someone more experienced explain what we are supposed to think about all of these people claiming dayvig? is this standard (or more importantly -is it

helpful

in some way i don't understand)?

UVApe - wow man thats a biiiig vote lol. Do your votes work out? They must I mean - look at the size of that thang. Gaad-zooks!

Boshka: Your reasons for voting ZHero are, despite your words, not clear to us. Can you clarify?

There are at least two non-town players in this game. Reasoning: Most, if not all, Mini Normal games played on this site have had at least two non-town players.

Everyone knows this. This is common sense. But a mafia (not just scum, but mafia)-aligned player who knows he has at least one partner would likely think differently about stating this fact than town would. He might feel the need to over-explain this so that it wouldn't look for a second like he knows how many mafia there are in the setup, and when it becomes decidedly clear that there is a mafia team in the game, no one will be able to accuse him of knowing too much. It's kind of irrational, because like I said, everyone knows that it's common sense that there is almost certainly more than one scum present, and most likely a scum team--but one big advantage that the town has is the fact that scum have difficulty "forgetting" that they are scum and psychologically placing themselves in the role of a townie. If I had two votes, I'd place one on Chevre, but for now, it remains on CooLDoG for what I see as a very suspicious assertion.

Could you better state how my post applies to the situation you've described? I fail to see how I am guilty of the situation which you have described.

I don't think chevres post is scummy necessarily. I do find it sort of odd. Why do you need to explain mafia 101 to the entire town? I understand if you are doing your own logical prep for a game, but it seems weird to state something that everyone knows... anyway...

A lot of confusion seems to be circulating around the apparent "basics" I stated in my opening posts. I haven't played in quite a while, so with my return I wanted to try something new; I hope to make a similar post with additional information as day and night progress.

[Chevre]

Revenus - If there are obvious differences between town and non-town, why do we mislynch from time to time?

Norlkaz - If say, the scumhunting of the town at the moment was in a desperately incorrect direction, it might tempt the Mafia to boast and say "nice scumhunting!" Additionally, I did not mean that you had indicated some people were town and others not based on their voicing of town reads. Instead I meant that you had said one could voice town reads and be any such faction, as you did in post 32. Also, your Boshka point is illogical. First, UVApe inquired about Boshka's reasoning first. Second, are you yourself not curious to see Boshka's reasoning?

[Chevre]

RestFermata - I cannot say for sure, but I do not think I would make statements any differently if I were not town. Also, the question which makes up the next paragraph is what I am trying to grasp; if there are truly any "tells," how accurate are they?

Boshka's explanation of his vote was what I expected, but at least we all now know that there were no real reasons.

[Chevre]

I think I am going to replace out. I'd like to say I have neither the time nor interest to put my best effort forth in this game, but as evidenced by the many MS posts I did make in the past few days, it's obviously interest. I apologize to the players and the moderator.

As a final courtesy, would you guys like me to comment on everything before I leave, or let someone else take over?