Mini 1454 - GAME OVER

[Hoopla]

holla

amrun, why are you riling up the newbies? what are you trying to achieve here?

[Hoopla]

VOTE: JKMatthews

Amrun is at least right about this.

A lot of unengaging philosophizing coming from Matthew and not much else. It's fairly scummy, and as a bonus tidbit, if he is scum, then his buddies haven't been under pressure all day. We'd see more urgency or direction towards other players if his partners were being wagoned - again, assuming he is scum, though.

[Hoopla]

Hi Hoopla, thanks for joining the game! Happy Birthday!

Another experienced player I can buddy, yea!

i am rusty. buddy at your own peril.

[Hoopla]

hey bubbajack, you don't need to respond to every single thing someone says to you. lets tighten it up. those quote stripes are killing me.

[Hoopla]

Sort of just randomly dropping some thoughts here:

- Fuzzy's weird circular logic where his RVS vote often being scum means it's a reason to vote someone is funny because he's so brazen about it, but it's what he actually believes. And because he believes it, it's likely to have come from town. It'd be a weird tactic to use as scum, because it being a lie means there was an element of planning behind his play, and knowing fuzzy, that just isn't him.
- Bubbajack's response to fuzzy's I-always-vote-scum-in-the-RVS was also funny. The effort to debunk fuzzy's dubious claim was town in and of itself. The rest of his posting has seemed solid when you look past the walls of quotes.
- notscience's wagon isn't horrible. For some reason, his page 5 vote on fuzzy struck me as weird. It was a wishy-washy vote that was fairly easy to justify given how obtuse fuzzy was being. Scum like to jump on the safe votes, especially when they've got a wagon on themselves - essentially, more pressure = less risk taking behaviour.

[Hoopla]

Can you clarify this for me Hoopla?

scum tend to be less driven when their team is in no immediate danger. what incentive is there to further the game when townies are wagoning each other for you?

[Hoopla]

looking at the notscience wagon, none of my town reads are on it (amrun, fuzzy, bubba). there's a high concentration of scum populating those six votes on notscience.

when i look at a picture like that, it makes me think what is more likely:

1) notscience is scum and scum is bussing him hard.
2) notscience is scum and by chance the rest of the scumteam is in the two slots not voting notscience or my town reads.
3) notscience is town and scum are happy pushing this one through.

1 doesn't make a whole lot of sense as there have been plenty of other reasonable mislynch targets - so why bother making an effort to bus? 2 seems unlikely just from the sheer probabilistic nature of it. there are just way more combinations of scumteams to pick from in situation 3.

the one thing i'm more sure of right now is my town reads, so i think determining information through that lens is the wisest idea for me. if i'm right on my town reads, then it's very likely notscience is town too.

i'm not comfortable with his wagon and him being at L-1 now. i want to look at the formation of notscience's wagon before someone asks for a claim. i think he's town.

[Hoopla]

Looking at the notscience wagon:

1)

jon_h61

votes for notscience on the opening page, and other than one brief mention on page 11;

"NotScience is my biggest scumspect, and where my vote will be until/unless something bigger comes along."

- he has not said a single thing about notscience. Even that one sentence on him is lacking. If notscience flips town, jon_h61 needs to come under fire for sitting on notscience all day without even attempting to figure out his alignment. Conversely, if notscience is scum, jon is probably town. Scum don't needlessly sit on a random vote all day on their buddy. But it is suspicious if notscience is town.

2)

NobodySpecial

has done absolutely nothing all game, and like jon, is sitting on an ancient vote on notscience without doing anything at all to determine his alignment. Unfortunately NobodySpecial tends to lurk and be lazy as town as often as he does scum, so as much as I'm willing to call him out for his vote, I don't expect it to be alignment telling for him.

3)

JuanJuan

, like the other two before him is still sitting on an ancient vote from page 3 based on spurious reasoning. And like the two before him has done little to analyse his vote, other players or interrogate notscience. Suspicious.

This is the foundation of the notscience wagon: laziness and apathy. Not one of these voters have displayed any curiosity at all regarding notscience's alignment and have pretty much just nestled in for the ride and done nothing else. I would be gobsmacked if all three of these players are town - if they are, we're fucked, because it means our lynches are being determined almost randomly. None of these voters have any idea why they're voting notscience - all they've done is enabled other people to jump on thinking it's a viable wagon, when in reality, it is based on nothing.

This is highly suspicious, and I expect scum to be in the first three voters, or if not, the ones to come, because why wouldn't scum capitalise on such an easy mislynch?

Okay, looking at the rest of these votes:

4)

AngelInFreezer's

play hasn't been horrible and has shopped his vote around to other places before settling on notscience, so I don't have too much issue with his occupation of the notscience wagon. I still have him as null.

5)

JKMatthew's

vote actually isn't as horrible as I was remembering. He didn't have any votes on him at the time, and yet he decided to place an L-2 vote on notscience, when HookerPunch was also on four votes. That's an action towards furthering the game, and is only suspicious if HookerPunch is scum with JKMatthews - a distinct possibility, but if both notscience and HookerPunch are town, then it makes JKMatthew's play positive. Not necessarily town, but it isn't suspicious to me.

6)

HookerPunch

. I don't know how I feel about his initial L-1 vote on notscience. It makes sense if Amrun or HookerPunch is scum, as they could easily become the lynch target if the notscience wagon collapsed, but it still is pretty brazen. Reading through his iso, he seems very fencesitty and my gut says scum, but I don't really know why. It looks like he's avoiding committing to any serious stances, which is in contrast to his L-1 vote. Weird. I don't know why Amrun has him as town, but I'd like to know.

~~

I definitely have a lot more issues with the base of this wagon than those who joined late. As I said before, the fact that all my town reads are off this wagon, and I see six null-to-scummy voters on it, makes it really obvious to me that this is a mislynch with at least two scum sitting comfortably on votes they haven't been challenged on.

I want to lynch someone on this wagon, and it should be one of the early voters, in my opinion. I am still suspicious of JKMatthews, and I think he needs to be die at some point, but I think I've unearthed higher priorities here.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: JuanJuan

[Hoopla]

Because you weren't on the original wagon I was talking about when I said I was going to look at it.

I don't really like your vote. Why have you decided to vote him?

[Hoopla]

Why?

[Hoopla]

Anti-town doesn't always equal scum. For example, some of your antics have been anti-town.

You must reaaaaally think NobodySpecial is scummy then, right?

[Hoopla]

No, NS is helping town. NoS isn't.

Read NobodySpecial's iso and tell me that again with a straight face.

[Hoopla]

Er, I did.

He's helping. (granted, it's not

much

help, but it's help.

Since his reasonless vote on notscience on page 3, he has offered (literally) two lines of actual content.

Why isn't notscience helping? He's offered a lot more than that.

[Hoopla]

You're doing my head in.

[Hoopla]

Thanks for sharing that, HookerPunch (#318). That actually reads quite sincerely.

~~

As an aside: I have a strong gut scum read on Aj The Epic. He's flown under the radar and completely avoided commenting on the notscience wagon. He isn't the only one to do so, but he appears to be checking in on a more regular basis which is scummier - he's doing the bare minimum. If notscience is town, then Aj is the one person off the wagon most likely to be scum - he's quite content letting other people absorb the limelight.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, you chose the wrong scum. It's Jon, not Juan. A simple misspelling on your part, I'm sure, but you made a much better case against Jon than Juan.

When I was contemplating who to vote from those early voters, a couple of jon's posts struck me as town. Like when he was lucidly talking about buddying and forming a town bloc - just seemed too candid and like he wasn't worrying about what people thought. His vote being static the entire day is suspicious, but reading his iso, a couple of gut things like that stick out as town. I didn't really get as many town pangs when reading Juan's posts.

[Hoopla]

That is a scumclaim. Scum cares about positioning, town naturally is better and more comfortable with their movements. Defensiveness is a noob tell. Not a scum tell, but we've missed that apparently.

Scum also care about image, and willingly admitting something like that incurs a lot of risk to your image. Why risk that as scum? I think his confession there seemed pretty town.

[Hoopla]

Why did your opinion change so dramatically, so quickly? Now I understand the logic of both positions, they both make sense, but why so radical a change of mind?

My initial feeling about notscience was gut-based. He feels scummy in an obvious way, but he doesn't make sense as scum in the context of the game and my other reads, which is why I changed my mind. The slow build-up and static nature of the wagon with people not bothering to budge off it nor analyse it beyond the surface makes it seem a lot more likely that scum is just capitalising on an easy target, rather than scum having being caught.

In general, I feel I'm more accurate when I consider the wagon and other factors, than just going on gut.

[Hoopla]

Wut.

Juan Juan's post 327 is town.

What's your logic?

[Hoopla]

My lynch preferences right now are probably;

Juan
NobodySpecial

jon/kthxbye

Aj The Epic


Roughly in that level of strength. So, I'm perfectly fine with the NobodySpecial wagon cropping up to compete against Juan.

[Hoopla]

You being third on the wagon isn't really a tell I'm using here. I don't remember mentioning that.

I'm mostly suspicious of all three of you early notscience voters for camping on those votes. I have jon as more town than you and Nobody Special, so in a way it's probably more PoE than anything. As far as I'm concerned, either one of you or Nobody Special can be lynched today.

[Hoopla]

process of elimination

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla: Unless I missed this, in case you can quote yourself, what's your opinion on notscience?

I think I'm seeing the similar traits from last game we played together from Jon. His "buddying" approach looks townish, though. so I'm putting him as NLS.

"My initial feeling about notscience was gut-based. He feels scummy in an obvious way, but he doesn't make sense as scum in the context of the game and my other reads, which is why I changed my mind. The slow build-up and static nature of the wagon with people not bothering to budge off it nor analyse it beyond the surface makes it seem a lot more likely that scum is just capitalising on an easy target, rather than scum having being caught.

In general, I feel I'm more accurate when I consider the wagon and other factors, than just going on gut."

~~

You don't have better targets to go after than someone null leaning scum?

[Hoopla]

"Put your vote back on notscience plz."Done
VOTE: Not Science

Why'd you do this?

[Hoopla]

OMG Hoopla is here?

I'M SO EXCITED EVEN THOUGH I CAN'T READ YOU FOR SHIT HOOPLA

i am towning it up so far

[Hoopla]

apologies, but i'll be v/la for 24-48 hours. will try and make posts in between, but no promises.