Mini 1556: Greetings Without Spain (GAME OVER FAREWELL)

[ICEninja]

Time to finally get this game going. Hello everybody, I see a few familiar faces here. Most of them from long ago, though.

Is anybody posting outside of mainland USA hours? I ask because sometimes I'm waiting for a response but it isn't going to come until awkward hours.

Anyways, on to the game.

I feel like this comment:

You know, I would, but I've already found scum on page 1. I prefer to bus my buddies out the gate to make myself look more town, ya know?

Is more likely to come from scum joking about their role than town.

Kcd's post 24 may hold some water. Suspicion for piss for that.

I will, however, be suspicious of Kcd is piss flips scum considering the whole "I don't want this to go too fast, going to jump off if it looks like a quicklynch".

Apparently they haven't read my meta. Im rather derpy, yea

Do not like this as a defense at all.

Asia's request to comment on his own self vote confuses me, but it seems like a strange attempt to get discussion going.

Wouldn't the "hammer" have given good info had he flipped town?

Considering how I haven't even posted yet, no. Not at all. Scummy to even suggest this.

Lucresia's post 52 is the best post of the game so far, minus the town read of Kthx.

The fact that d3x is willing to make concessions that he misread but still scum hunts gives me a town feeling.

This game is giving me a headache already and I haven't even posted yet. I'm definitely going to need some time to sift out the crazy townies from the scum, as I certainly have a tendency to find players like Kcd more scummy than I should. I'm going to do something slightly unusual of me and hold my vote for a little. I'm looking for something specific.

[ICEninja]

Oh yeah? Why is it more likely to come from scum exactly? Have you experienced this before? Do you know my town and scum games somehow?

This is a ridiculous response. No I don't know your meta, but yes I see scum joking like this from time to time and believe I have actually done it myself. Scum try to appear as town as possible, but will often make jokes and such to down play their scumminess.

Also, was I calling for the hammer at that point? Please explain further how my question is scummy in context.

You were playing devil's advocate. While it can be paranoid town to play devil's advocate, this particular situation is the exact opposite. You're implying that a quick lynch at that point in the game would have had merit. This could suggest to other players implicitly to go ahead with a quick hammer, and such an action would almost assuredly benefit scum.

As for holding your vote....why? Do you not wanna be tied to anything for future study as the game progresses? The only reason I can see for you not voting and "something slightly unusual" is to keep yourself off the VC's which hurts VCA later on? How is this a pro-town move exactly?

I will address this later.

Oh I also missed this earlier:

Xay: please list the posts in which you think Kcd was "poking and questioning a lot of stuff". Hell, the only reason he's spurring any activity is because

his posting is too scummy to actually be scum

and I feel the need to call him out on it. But, again, before I lump you into the VI club with him, I'd like to see where you think he is pushing the game.

Underlined is mine. This reasoning is almost always faulty and bad.

Actually, I was considering holding my vote to check people's reactions to it and see who tries to jump on it in an attempt to find an easy wagon, but I actually don't want to hold my vote anymore.

Vote Kthxbye

.

[ICEninja]

Also, this wagon on me that seems to be gaining speed (somehow) when PK is in a whole and nowhere near doing anything to dig himself out just proves to me that he's prob scum and should be today's lynch.

While there is some truth to this, and it gives me pause, that initial wagon built on piss SOOOO easily. Scum don't tend to have votes pile on them like that so early on. I am watching him, though, and he would probably be a tolerable place to put my vote should I change my mind about you.

His apparent apathy doesn't seem genuine to me, otherwise he would just request to be placed out instead of just adding to the mess.

Oh my god this. Ika's disinterest in this game feels exactly like scum trying to coast under the radar and blame anything scummy he does on "not caring" about the game. If he does replace then the slot is null, but if he stays in the game and continues to fail to impress me then I'll lean scummy on him.

I don't really like piss's response to d3x's push and I'm trying to decide if it is scummy or not. Piss seems to not really care that there are votes on him. If this is genuine then he's town, but I'm not sure it is. I wouldn't mind seeing the pressure continue to see what else we can get from him, but I definitely prefer a Kthx vote at the moment.

While I like lurker hunting, I see d3x's point on voting ika at the moment. I feel like current ika votes are bad but future ika votes could be very good.

For the record, there was mention about there being a "case" on Kthx. I don't really think this is true. I just have a few points that leads me personally to believe that he is scum, and is mostly based around how bad his responses were. Other votes on Kthx really need to be justified.

[ICEninja]

Kthx this game is all over the place, not just my post.

[ICEninja]

Ika replaced out so his actions are completely neutral. Thom has come out of the gates shooting, and while his walls can be a little tricky to follow I like most of what he has to say. I'm gonna drop him in the town bucket for the purpose of day 1.

While I don't do a whole lot of meta, d3x seems convinced that Kthx is town because he's scummy. I honestly don't get it. Why would a town player do so much that is against his wincon? This 1v1 is awful, and pushes way too much attention to him. It either is a scum gambit or a really REALLY

REALLY

bad town play.

Honestly at this point I'm leaning towards the fact that Kthx is making a bad town play, and is the VI that we should be PLing instead of Kcd, but I don't PL during day 1 as it prevents town from getting enough to make an informed lynch the next day. I need to think more on this, but I'm having too many doubts right now to continue holding a vote this far in.

Unvote

. I'd like to provide more but RL has been...rough...lately. Hopefully later today I'll have better content.

[ICEninja]

I read through Xay's ISO. At first I didn't really see the case against him, but this comment from Rhinox sums up my feelings quite nicely:

Xay is more interested in explaining every single action he's done or may do than trying to find scum. That is why he's scum. Its hard to fake genuine scumhunting as scum, and Xay is faking it very poorly.

Xay's post 89 in particular is really bad. I don't see much original thought coming from his slot except wishy-washy stuff.

This is what concerns me about pisskop:

Rhinox. Got nothing of note. Doesnt seem concerned with impressing people. So that.

Titus. You. :/ I was slightly suprised when mod said ika found you. Post more please.

Thom. Very upfront. Some issues for me following everything but definitely putting in work.

There isn't a single read in there. It is all information instead of analysis.

In terms of the players themselves, I'm fairly on the fence about which is more voteworthy at the moment. However if I look at the players voting them, I feel much much better about joining the players voting Xay.

Vote Xayzeck

unless pisskop continues to give not-reads, in which point I might find my vote switching.

[ICEninja]

Oh my Xay just claimed VT without heavy pressure put on him. Bad bad bad, don't think I'll be moving my vote anywhere.

[ICEninja]

Xay vs. Thom feels like town on town, though I don't mind it because I don't feel like it is distracting town and is helping me read both players.

The discrepancy noted here by Thomith makes me feel like Kthx really is scum after all, but the reasoning for voting Xay is far too strong. D3x's case goes way deeper in to things than I would and finds stuff scummy that is more than what is probably the case but the theme running through Xay's ISO is obvious and I believe d3x's conclusion is correct.

Due to the existence of counter wagons and recognizing how useless of a player Xay is, we can be reasonably assured we aren't wasting a lynch even if I'm wrong and Xay is town.

I had a decent townread on Lucresia fairly early on, but I need to hear her thoughts on the Xay wagon now that a case is thoroughly established. My town read is diminishing due to the early unvote and lack of strong stances and placing a new vote.

[ICEninja]

Kthx, I'll go read in to Thom's point against you in context later should I decide you're a good lynch for other things. Honestly I'm really conflicted on you because your head butting with Thom felt pro-town from both angles. You both scum hunted the other without distracting town, and none of it felt fake.

My only concerns of you being scum come from earlier in the day.

Also, your supposed scum slip on PK tbh looks more like a mason slip to me, as he's implying that both Xay and himself are town. I do, however, doubt that they are mason buddies due do some of their interactions.

Lucresia is talking way too much about stuff he said in the past. His most interesting thing to note is that awkward buddying quote for piss. Considering Luc's statements about piss I could see them being scum buddies.

[ICEninja]

Xay scum reads me because I admitted I'm not 100% certain of a day 1 lynch.

Hrm.

The rest of the reads list is trash. He doesn't have a valid scum read on a single player. This is awful.

I've put a lot of stock in to people's wording calling themselves and others townies and such in the past but I don't think it works in this situation. It only really tracks if he's saying that we're lynching a townie when specifically only talking about Xay, as if he asked people why they're trying to lynching a townie when they vote him. If he "slipped" then he admitted that he's town and has information suggesting that Xay is town, which would only be possible if they were masons (ergo, looks more like a mason slip than a scum slip) which isn't possible.

It just looks more likely that he doesn't like either lynch.

Now I'm not saying you're wrong, I've got a slight scum read on piss myself, but I don't particularly agree that what you have found is a scum slip.

Ugh reading piss's posts just feels like he doesn't understand what is going on this game. It is really frustrating. Piss, you need to actually get reads on players and develop opinions and push a lynch. Xay I don't care about because he's already caught scum.

[ICEninja]

Mod, your current vote count puts Kthx at only 1 player but shows 2 people voting him. Also, I don't see Private's vote anywhere. Could you check those for me?

Well this is confusing to process. It looked like piss was trying to fakehammer to get info out of Xay before. I've done that before, being an early vote on someone then "voting" them against when they're at L-1 to gauge their reaction.

Piss didn't seem to have done that, and it looks like it would be giving him way too much credit since I swear this guy seems to have no clue about what is going on this game. If they are scum together with day talk, there was

certainly

a third scum who orchestrated that whole thing because neither Xay nor piss seem like clever enough players to pull that off as scum.

The main two wagons seem to be a player who doesn't care about his wincon and a player who doesn't know what to do. I'm almost getting feelings like these wagons are BOTH easy scum lynchbait or something, and it is starting to make me paranoid that both wagons have either been started by or encouraged by scum.

And damn, I completely forgot about the early VT claim. I still kind of want to lynch Xay, but I get the feeling he might really be a VT so it would only be last resort.

The fact that Private didn't catch up, went "oops I have HW can't catch up now", but still voted for the main wagon makes me worried that he did indeed glance over current events and wanted to put town close to lynch and hope he gets hammered before he really has to commit to anything, and can claim complete innocence in the lynch for day 2.

Unvote

, for now.

[ICEninja]

I'm debating joining the piss wagon. It seems fairly promising, though almost too easy.

I need Private to catch up.

[ICEninja]

Considering the possibility I flip town? Sure. What would be the ideal course of action if I did? Even better. Thinking that I should be lynched regardless of town or scum? No thanks.

So you've been 100% sure on every single day 1 lynch you've been on? You've been a fairly useless player and really wouldn't damage town very much if you were lynched even as a townie. The information we would gain from your lynch would sure as hell be more valuable to catching scum than your "scum hunting" has been.

You're right, I acknowledged that you could be town. Day 1 lynches, more often than not, are on town. I also acknowledged that even if you are town your lynch was (given the information at the time) the correct one.

ICE: The PK wagon has been anything BUT easy. Trust me, I've been pushing it awhile. It seems easier now because he's scum and messed up pretty bad and got caught for it.

Hmm. In actually looking back at this you're absolutely right. Piss's wagon has built exactly how it tends to on scum. It gained some momentum early then broke. Then gained some then broke. Then someone else got wrung up but people realized they were probably wrong and STILL this guy doesn't seem to be getting lynched, and the reasoning for his lynch is definitely there, even if it isn't incredibly strong.

Rhinox makes a really good point about Titus. I'd like to see that responded to. PrivateI really needs to start playing this game, too.

My vote will almost certainly fall on one of the 3 between piss, Titus, and PI. I'm leaning piss at the moment.

[ICEninja]

Titus's response is not satisfactory. I'll happily join a Titus wagon, if there is any support for it. I hate to put my vote somewhere useless this late in the day.

Kthx's early play was very scummy, and some of his really recent stuff has been iffy, but I don't like him for a day 1 lynch especially after how genuine his 1v1 with Thom felt.

[ICEninja]

Actually I shouldn't even call that a 1v1, it was more mutual scum hunting which gave me town feelings for both players.

[ICEninja]

WOW I've been doing {url= (copy paste URL)} (what i want the blue text to say) {/url} this whole time. I feel really stupid.

Anyways,

Come join me, be a trailblazer. Still 5 days to dealine, that is 36% of the time alloted to D1. If we scaled Day 1 to a literal Day, it would be just ~3:20PM. Its not yet "settle for best available option" time.

Sure, why not.

Blatant sheep.

Vote Titus

.

[ICEninja]

I never thought of it like that, however wouldn't it be better to get rid of "lynchbait" early so you can analyse their wagons rather than leave them alive and have them potentially screw over later days because of people being paranoid of their scumminess, or am i being a bit harsh here.

No, there is absolutely merit to this, as I alluded to when I said that Xay's lynch was the right lynch with the information we had before the "hammer". I'm happy lynching piss, given that we'll get decent information and a useless player off the table, along with a plausible chance to take out a scum.

I feel like in all likelihood piss is going to be today's lynch and I'll probably be the L-1 vote or hammer for it, but I definitely like a Titus lynch right now too.

[ICEninja]

I'm voting Titus because her read switched VERY suddenly when it became convenient for scumTitus to join the leading wagon.

If Titus is town and piss is scum, then Rhinox is very likely scum for how much he dismantled the piss wagon. However, as Rhinox pointed out, piss's sudden scum read on me makes absolutely no sense coming from scum. It also makes no sense coming from town, though, so I'm really not sure.

Piss just makes no sense. It both makes me want to lynch him and gives me pause about lynching him, if that makes sense. (Or at least more sense than piss.)

[ICEninja]

You do realize that ika only mentioned 3 players and only responded to 2 others. His Kthx vote was also sheeped off of mine.

While I don't mind your vote on Titus, your painting of me as suspicious with her is a joke.

[ICEninja]

So Xay takes his useless vote off me to put it on a player who has about a zero percent chance of being lynched today.

Why didn't we actually lynch this guy again?

[ICEninja]

So...when is PrivateI going to actually catch up?

ICE- Please reconcile p301 and p304. piss hadn't posted in between, but you seem to have changed your stance a bit.

I've been waffling about piss for basically the entire day. He's (slightly) less useless of a player now, but some of the stuff he's done leads me to believe there's actually a decent chance he'll flip scum. On the other hand, he just seems like a bad player who needs to die at some point before lylo, regardless of alignment. It doesn't feel like day 1 has been the right time to lynch him, and I just can't reconcile a lot of the reasons people seem to want him dead. My slight scum read on him is more gut than anything.

I've been really torn as to what to do about him. I figure at this point one of the leading wagons of piss and Titus is on town town and one on scum. If Titus flips town, piss is very likely scum and will probably be where my vote lands at the beginning of day 2.

@ICE's 352 as you started the Titus wagon couldn't you be lumped as scum also as you effectively also "dismantled the PK wagon"?

Rhinox called me out to join him in voting Titus. If piss flips scum and Titus flips town, everyone on the Titus wagon is going to be suspect, but FMPOV obviously I'm going to be looking at other players.

[ICEninja]

Oh my god this game is so bad.

[ICEninja]

Kthx yes I meant the quality of play in this game is awful. The mod has been fantastic.

I forgot Lucresia was in this game. That bugs me.

PrivateI is probscum. I would like to consider lynching him tomorrow, especially if Titus flips town. If Titus flips scum then piss is probably more worth looking at. Also, if PrivateI flips scum then that almost certainly clears Xay as town.

[ICEninja]

Oh and to amend Rhinox's 3 possibilities, Titus flips town and piss is lynched record speed tomorrow. Rhinox then takes the fallout day 3.

I'm not entertaining any possibilities that BOTH piss and Titus are town.

[ICEninja]

I want to demand a PK lynch today. Not only have I read him scum the longest, but also: DO YOU ALL SEE HOW FAST TITAN'S WAGON (THE COUNTER WAGON TO PK) BUILT?

Yeah, I've read the Titus case and understand it's a solid one. The only thing that bothers me is how fast the wagon countered PK even before the whole case was posted point for point by Rhinox.

And this, right here, is literally the only thing giving me pause. The reason I'm not too worried is if for whatever reason we're wrong about Titus, piss will be ridiculously obviously scum and will be lynched without effort.

While, as you pointed out, it is

physically possible

that both Titus and piss are town, I would pretty much say town deserves to lose if this is the case. I'll pretty much lose any interest in this game.

Piss seems more scum out of circumstance than actually reading as scummy (which, don't get me wrong, is legitimate reason to scum read someone) but just reading him, piss just isn't all that scummy. Titus, on the other hand, is ridiculously scummy all around. We're going to get a scum lynch in the first 2 days, so help me God. I just feel like we have a higher chance of getting 2 scum lynches in the first 2 days if we lynch Titus today.

In summary, I totally understand why you're saying what you are, I agree with your logic completely, but no I'm not interested in lynching piss today over Titus.

[ICEninja]

Like I said I don't think he reads all that scummy, but if Titus ends up flipping town, no way are BOTH of these wagons on town.

[ICEninja]

PI: will u be playing this game or...?

^

[ICEninja]

Rhinox's assessment of the situation mirrors my thoughts almost explicitly, excepting only switching our names in the FMPOV list of people to find scum, the fact that I

highly

doubt that all 3 scum were all on the same wagon (wording that you somewhat seemed to agree with though you don't want to rule it out, fair enough) and that I've never really had a town read on piss so the circumstances point strongly to Kthx having been right the whole time.

Vote pisskop

.

[ICEninja]

Some thoughts to follow up on that, I will switch my vote to PrivateI should he not provide any meaningful content in the next 48ish hours, and it will be

very

difficult to move my vote at that point.

If at some point PrivateI dies and flips town, based on that VC alone I would hazard a guess that Asia is VERY likely scum.

I've got town reads on quite a few of the players who were on the Titus wagon, so honestly I really don't want to rule out Xay scum.

[ICEninja]

If piss is scum I think Rubicon is the other scum on the D1 wagon.

I'm calling the team right now, piss, Rubicon, PrivateI.

You can thank me post game after we lynch them.

[ICEninja]

Xay is scum if either you or Rubicon is town. Asia is scum if PrivateI is town.

[ICEninja]

This day is starting out slower than I did the morning after St. Patrick's day.

[ICEninja]

NKs are usually selected for one of 3 reasons:
1) PR read. D3x flipped tracker so it is entirely possible that scum picked up on something. Perhaps it had something to do with him saying he had information he didn't want to discuss. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a specific player he wanted to track.
2) The player has dangerous reads. If someone calls out an entire scum team, they usually need to die.
3) To frame somebody and speculate on #2. I'm not saying Kthx is scum, but scum will night kill to send people down the wrong paths and even use it as a drive for a scum-pushed wagon.
4) A player is unlynchable, and will make it to lylo and win if he is not NKed.

It is often a mix of these.

Day 1 NKs are not particularly good to speculate on because there is typically so many different reasons as to why someone can be NKed. ESPECIALLY if someone flps PR.

I do not like Xay's flip from Asia to piss back to Asia, especially since he voted for someone that he didn't want to vote for the purpose of placating another player. That is so so scummy. I now feel like the scum team is 2 of [piss, Xay, Rubicon] and 1 of [PrivateI, Asia]. I'm not sure if I like Xay and piss for buddies though, which bugs me a little because Rubicon is mostly on there out of PoE and reads the most town of the 5 players I just posted, but if my current speculation is correct he is statistically the correct vote.

Gut still says there is no way all the D1 wagons are town, and the only way piss is town is that Xay is scum. PrivateI should probably be lynched sooner than later though, if he isn't going to play.

I'm not feeling an Asia vote right now, with all this other stuff. I'll stick with piss.

[ICEninja]

Two players placed votes for the sake of appeasing others before day 2 has enough content to fill a single page.

I swear, this game is going to be won or lost not by which side makes good moves but by which sides does less retarded shit.

[ICEninja]

Unvote, Vote PrivateI

.

Post, or get out of this game.

Now.

Unless your scum, which seems fairly probable at the moment. In which case just die.

[ICEninja]

^

[ICEninja]

Read day 2, PrivateI. It isn't long. If you read Rhinox's post at the start of the day and my posts following it, all the answers are there.

[ICEninja]

If there isn't scum in that group then town deserves to lose, let's be real. Town can't have that many village idiots and come out on top. That being said I would eat my hat if there wasn't one, and would still be modestly surprised if there isn't 2, unless Asia is scum.

[ICEninja]

Asia isn't a bad lynch but I think I prefer pisskop at the moment.

But let's be real I don't really give a shit about this game anymore so...

[ICEninja]

*Crickets*

[ICEninja]

Despite His scum read of me and a town read on PrivateI, some of Kthx's logic tracks. The problem is that Rubicon had intended to move over to the Titus wagon, which would have put all 3 scum on one wagon, which I don't exactly see happening in this situation. Pretty sure there had to be at least (probably only) one scum either not voting or on the piss wagon.

I think Thom is probably town. Despite my current vote, I think piss is probably the right lynch today. While we simply cannot let PrivateI survive to lylo (as if he is town he will not be NKed), piss seems to be more likely scum and we really need a scum flip to get things going.

There were 3 leading wagons yesterday, and if all 3 of them were on town then I'll eat my hat. Best bet is piss.

Unvote, vote piss

.

PrivateI, if you're town, then you REALLY need to play this fucking game.

[ICEninja]

D3x called me scummy. Then again so did several other players.

[ICEninja]

OH also something I forgot to include about the D1 kill, if a majority of the scum team was on the day 1 mislynch, scum tend to prefer to shoot someone who wasn't on the wagon, as the day 2 lynch tends to fall more often than not on someone who was on the mislynch wagon day 1. Shooting someone on the wagon makes it easier for town to nail scum day 2.

That combined with PR flip combined with universal townread pretty much makes looking at d3x's reads out of context pointless.

Now if you like his argument for someone being scum that's different.

[ICEninja]

SIGH.

[ICEninja]

If this game just kind of fizzled and died, I honestly wouldn't even mind at this point.

Just saying.

I'll give this game a couple more days before I'm out of here.

[ICEninja]

I'm feeling more confident than ever that the team is piss, Rub, and PI.

[ICEninja]

Or maybe you noticed that there was already some resistance to pushing a piss wagon today despite how many people said it would be a good idea for D2 and wanted to capitalize and go for a second townie lynch today.

While I stand by the case on Titus yesterday, lynching her was the right move with the information we had, I feel like I didn't give quite enough weight to the counter wagon dynamics that happened in day 1 that kept preventing piss from being lynched. I would feel silly having contributed to them if it weren't for how damn scummy both Xay and Titus were during day 1.

The

only

way piss can conceivably be town is if Xay has been scum all along and he got lucky with how the hammer shenanigans went down. I could see how 2 of the 3 major wagons yesterday were on town, but I am not willing to entertain the idea that scum managed that many mislynch wagons. There's too much derp in this game for that. TownXay would realize this and push a piss lynch. Which he is, and I'll be pretty solidly town reading Xay if we get a scum flip on piss.

[ICEninja]

Unless I'm wrong about BOTH Rhinox and Kthx, I doubt there is any scum skillful enough to be pushing multiple wagons on town like that. And Kthx was pushing on piss. I'm pretty much feeling like scum is just as bad as town this game, and the victory will ultimately come down to which side gets better replacements.

If you're town, I have no idea who the 3rd scum would be after Xay and Asia. PoE would mean probably either Kthx or Lucresia.

[ICEninja]

OK so hypothetical situation:

Xay is lynched today and flips town. Some random pro town player dies. Who do you suspect D3?

[ICEninja]

So Rubicon, if Xay dies and flips town with Titus dead an having flipped town, you'll still

legitimately

believe that piss is town?

Don't get me wrong, I don't have great feelings about Xay and you might be right about him, but if piss flips scum I know who I'm instantly voting.

[ICEninja]

But yeah there are, what, 4 slots that are probably going to replace and we've gone half a week without anyone stepping in?

I'm just about done with this game.

[ICEninja]

Equinox, excellent. Hello!

And since I'm pretty sure Thomith is town already, this gives me a lot of renewed faith in this game.

D1 is tough to read, but day 2 has been short and pathetic. The most notable things involve piss being scum (or possibly Xay being scum) because of how the wagons behaved during day 1, and either Asia (now evilpacman) or PI being scum, because there was almost certainly scum somewhere off the mislynch wagon.

Rubicon seems to be the 3rd scum, mostly just because it makes sense, but I'd prefer he not be the lynch for today compared to others.

Piss is a great place to start!

[ICEninja]

^

[ICEninja]

It'll take a pretty convincing argument to get my vote off pisscop today. The best argument to get my vote on someone else is a case against your slot.

[ICEninja]

I have thoughts to post later.

Don't you dare let this be another content promise with lack of follow up.

[ICEninja]

Red, you have the unfortunate and possibly insurmountable task of addressing how the wagons behaved during day 1 (just looking at the vote counts alone should give the picture) and explain why I shouldn't vote for you. The main wagons throughout the day were your slot, Xay, and the mislynch Titus.

Due to the sheer amount of derp in this game, I don't feel like it is possible that there were enough good scum to be pushing multiple mislynches and that almost assuredly one of the counter wagons during day 1 is scum. Your slot was the counter wagon to BOTH, and your slot had a very difficult time holding any momentum as the focus of town's spotlight, despite a couple players very intensely accusing piss of being scum.

If Xay is lynched and flips town, I will be almost completely convinced of your guilt. I'd give Xay about a 30% chance to flip scum, and about a 10% chance that you're both scum, based on the information I currently have.

I believe your scum buddies are PrivateI OR Asia (more likely PI) and someone else on the mislynch wagon, with Rubicon being far and away the most likely as a 3rd candidate. (P.EDIT: Rubicon's last post definitely cements this theory).

Hello, by the way. I remember you from at least one game we've played together.

[ICEninja]

Look, if piss, Xay, and Titus are all town then town is pretty much going to lose. Unless new information is brought to light, I'm really unwilling to accept that they're ALL town and our day 1 was really

that

bad. I actually feel like I'm being pretty forgiving here, especially how you're quoting "completely convinced" where the full quote was:

If

Xay is lynched and flips town, I will be

almost

completely convinced of your guilt.

Notice those underlines there?

Yes, I'm pretty damn sure of a couple things. I often am when I'm right as town. When I'm scum I spread paranoia like crazy.

[ICEninja]

That post just COMPLETELY threw a wrench in to everything I was thinking. I was sure that Kthx was town if piss flipped scum, but now it could have been a hard bus all of day 1 because pisskop was a pisspoor scum buddy but now that he has RC as a scum buddy doesn't want to give him up just yet.

It could be possible that Rubicon is town after all. Which irks me because in the past couple pages I've been increasingly convinced of his guilt.

[ICEninja]

Kthx, at least you agree with me that "almost" certainly one of [Titus, PK's slot, Xay] is scum, and we know for a fact now that Titus is not.

And I also disagree that RC could pull himself out of a lynch today with yourself, Xay, and myself all pushing that hard for his slot's lynch. I believe it is 5 to lynch, and it seems like there is a decent likelihood at least one of the replacements would come in and agree, then we're at L-1. I feel like if you're scum buddies with RC, then this (with a promise of lynching RC tomorrow) would be the correct play for you.

All that being said, you're right about Xay being a liability to town, and I'm pretty sure I've said at some point that he shouldn't make it to endgame, but I feel like if RC is lynched then Xay actually has a fairly low chance of being scum and despite him being a liability, having probtown that survives for a long time can potentially be helpful.

It can also be a disaster if his scum reads are horrible though, so I could probably be happy with a Xay lynch if an RC lynch isn't happening.

[ICEninja]

The one dollar million question?

[ICEninja]

I get pissed when the game gets slow, regardless of alignment. This game was the worst I've ever experienced, but I get pissy when content falters either way. This is the first time I've ever seriously considering to bail because it was that bad. I'm not sure how else to defend myself against this point.

I don't agree with this. What does scum skill have to do with what the wagons were? Town can be pushing wagons on town, its not just scum that lead the mislynches. If you assume 3 scum in the game and everyone in the game is bad at it, then the odds all 3 were town comes down to random chance. When you work the numbers, if you take a random sample of 3 players there is a 62% chance 1 or more is scum and a 38% chance that all 3 are town

All of this is true, and none of this is how Mafia works. Town and scum are of different alignments, with different win conditions, and play differently. If there wasn't multiple scum trying to throw town off, then I can pretty much guarantee you that D1 lynches are going to occur on scum more often than 1 out of N-1. The D1 lynch tends to fall on town partially, yes, because there are more town than scum, but the pick is NOT random, and it is HEAVILY influenced by scum.

Especially consider how the wagons started yesterday, and who the main players pushing them were. It was the competent players. And they are the players who I feel are more likely to be town than scum. People can call me scum for being this confident about this all day and it doesn't change the fact that I'm still probably right. If both piss AND Xay are town then I will probably reconsider how I find scum, but I don't think I'll need to. I used to be fairly bad at this game but I've been winning quite a bit more than losing lately.

Can you please explain to me the gambler's fallacy? I am not familiar.

Also, N, please read day 2. It isn't long, and tells you exactly why you need to be voting RC instead of myself.

[ICEninja]

N what the fuck. You're doing better than your predecessor but being unwilling to read a 5 page day 2 is pretty pathetic. You need to at least ISO the mod and look at the day 1 wagons to see how they formed, who was where, etc.

There were 3 strong wagons yesterday. The first was on pisskop (now RC). Then a strong counter wagon built on Xay. It was a good wagon, and built for the right reasons, but fell apart when he was fake hammered and responded oddly to it. Then the piss wagon started building again. Rhinox (sheeped by myself) then built another counterwagon on Titus, once again for very good reasoning. Kthx fought tooth and nail to have pisskop lynched instead of Titus, also for fairly good reasoning that I agreed with, but I agreed with the Titus wagon more.

I'm pretty confident that at least one of those wagons was on scum, and we know it wasn't on Titus.

Another note, RC reminded me that Xay has already claimed. I TOTALLY forgot about this fact, and it is very important. I still prefer an RC lynch but that wagon seems to have completely fallen apart because of the replacement. I could definitely tolerate a Xay lynch as a second best, as he does have a chance to be scum (and would save a now quite helpful town player if he does, so there's that) and his town flip gives town a very strong chance to catch scum D3.

[ICEninja]

I'd also like to respond to a few things that RC said regarding me being scummy.

I didn't like 239, which is rolefishing. You can say that Kthx was the one to bring this up already in the form of "scumslipping", but ICE was the one to try and connect it to a town PR.

It wasn't role fishing. I was simply saying "It wasn't a scum slip. It could have been a mason slip but it isn't because they aren't masons."

It is painful to read through that whole scum slip bullshit, but if you really do comb through it carefully you'll understand what I was saying. I don't recall any of the players active at the time thinking I was rolefishing.

My post 390 was in response to Rhinox explaining 3 possible scenarios based on flips, and Kthx pointing out that he missed a possible scenario. I was filling that in. I wasn't particularly expecting that situation at the time.

Also, your posts that you snip that look terrible back to back are

COMPLETELY

out of context. Kthx tries to use d3x's death as part of his reasoning to explain why I'm scum. I explain extensively (mostly in post 474) why there were too many reasons d3x could have died to use it as reasoning as to why I'm scum. In the second one, I was adding yet

another

reason d3x could have potentially died. I was literally doing the exact opposite of what you're accusing me of.

I'm also not threatening anyone of scum reading them. I've been very clear on who I'm scum reading and why.

PEDIT: I think just once? I've been tunneling a bit hard on the pisskop slot, I'll admit.

[ICEninja]

That wasn't a slip. Stop crusading based on slips. Once in a while, they work. Most of the time it is just semantics. This time it is you completely misunderstanding what he's saying.

I do know, that if we lynch Xay today (not a bad option no matter the flip) and Xay flips town, RC better be the quickest lynch in MS history the next day.

If this happens, you'll very likely find my vote on RC in my first post of the day.

[ICEninja]

Oh that's rich, I just went through and read RC's catchup notes. He called pisskop's post saying that Titus and I being scumbuddies was insightful and that I was trying to lynch his slot because of that. Note that there were lots of associative tells with someone who ended up flipping town.

That post of piss's was one of the worst piss poor cases I've ever seen.

I seem to recall mentioning that Lucresia seemed like a likely scum buddy for pisskop. I kept forgetting about that player slot. It seems like that slot could potentially take Rubicon's place as 3rd scum, especially with the strange behavior of N lately.

I don't think it would be best to try to lynch N without seeing RC's flip, but I'm definitely going to take a look at that slot during night phase after today's lynch.

[ICEninja]

I find the fact that you sheeped a player and voted me, despite his vote not being on me. I also find it strange that you arbitrarily pick one player to "read" the game for you.

Also, I typically scum hunt with VCA. It works.

[ICEninja]

The point is, you were broadcasting thoughts about a player you thought was potentially a town PR.

I explicitly said the opposite.

Explicitly

. I did NOT think they were town PRs. This is a fine example of scum trying to find excuses for me to look scummy.

Elaborate on this, please. You mean to tell me that this post was not implying that you would suspect pisskop and Rhinox should Titus flip town?

I mean to say that I believed there was almost no chance of that happening. I was being obnoxious when I posted that.

Wrong. Anyone can look at 555 and 589 and come to this conclusion.

Then anyone would be jumping to conclusions. My point in 555 wasn't that he's scum, (though I've got posts saying he likely is for completely different reasoning) but that his reasoning is god awful. 589 wasn't even remotely a threat, it was Kthx doing something I didn't expect at all and screwed with my town read on him. That is a far cry from me threatening to scum read him if he doesn't lynch you.

Of course you wouldn't like it. It labeled you and a now known VT as scum.

Right. Based on associative tells. Very bad ones. Other people laughed at how fucking terrible that case was too. If you were town you would have as well.

I also find it funny that you aren't comprehending why calling me scum based on associative tells with someone who flipped town is ridiculous.

you're already guilty of assuming that Titus would flip town.

No I'm not.

Now it kind of looks like you're assuming that Xay will flip town.

If only there was some evidence that I thought you were scum instead of Xay, such as everything I've posted today and where my vote is. Hrmmmmm.

[ICEninja]

EBWOP: I misread one of your points against me. This

I mean to say that I believed there was almost no chance of that happening. I was being obnoxious when I posted that.

is incorrect.

The post in question was an extension of an interaction between Rhinox and Kthx here and I think here. But yeah I was mostly just being obnoxious with that post. I feel like I made it pretty clear I'd be suspicious of piss if Titus flipped town, and mostly agreed with the 3 situations Rhinox presented in 363.

[ICEninja]

Fine, a Xay lynch isn't the worst thing ever.

After the hammer I'm going to do some re-reading. If Xay ends up scum, I'm going to be looking pretty closely at the Asia/pacman slot, if Xay ends up town I'm going to be looking closely at the Lucresia/N slot.

Unvote, vote Xayzeck

.

[ICEninja]

6 to lynch, by my count I was the 5th vote.

I suppose I should have announced that was L-1, though not like we're waiting for a claim or anything.

[ICEninja]

Because I already have a solid read on RC, based on how you flip. Why would I need to delve deeper?

[ICEninja]

There's a disconnect between what you believe happened/is happening and what actually happened/is actually happening. Either that or the more likely scenario that you are scum and presenting the situation that gets me lynched tomorrow instead of you.

Your "alternate world" thing isn't even remotely close to reality. My point was his scum slip explicitly

did not make sense

unless they were both town. Which is probably not true to begin with. You accused me of role fishing. I did absolutely no such thing, and now that I've proven that I haven't and very handily disputed your claim, you're trying to find another way of painting what I did as scummy.

I don't buy it. I think you're just excusing your behavior after the fact now that, one, I've called you on it, and two, you've changed your reads.

Um, read what I said directly following the post you quoted. I never changed my reads. Just because I unvoted Xay yesterday when his wagon fell apart doesn't mean my read on him changed. I made multiple comments suggesting that he was still a viable lynch yesterday. After Rhinox posted a case against Titus, I sheeped and never changed my read on her either. I also have been

emphatically

clear about how I believe your slot to be scum should Titus flip town, unless Xay is scum. Which he might be, and it would be awesome if he is, but I have my (once again, very transparent) suspicion that he won't, and that lynching him today gets us a scum kill tomorrow. I tried to get you lynched today to no avail.

I also have no idea what you mean by "hiding behind my reads" of yourself and N. I've got too much suspicion today to be the night kill, scum knows they've got a decent chance at lynching me. I've got time. I'm also not going to launch in to a full on investigation on N before we have a scum flip, either. I'm about 75% confident I'll be able to call the entire team based on today's flip and tonight's kill (maybe with a either this player or that player is the last scum) and about 90% that I can call out at least 2. I suppose that will be really easy if we get a scum flip on Xay, anyway.

[ICEninja]

Deadline is in 2 days. I also missed Rhinox's unvote so we're at L-2. Unless there is a very very convincing argument for lynching someone other than Xay or RC your vote needs to be on one or the other. Like, now.

[ICEninja]

Xay's flip impacts my read of RC, not Asia/pacman.

Also yeah the post you just quoted would suggest that pacman is the opposite alignment of Xay. That doesn't look like a bus at ALL, and if Xay flips town, looks a lot like scum nodding along with the easiest wagon.

Looks like the team is either Xay/PI's slot/Rubicon or RC/Asia's slot/N? Maybe either Kthx or Rubicon for the last slot.

[ICEninja]

Going off what I know of ICEninja in previous games, if he's scum, he's probably not scum with any of the inactives.

Haha I know EXACTLY why you say this.

Good times.

OK no more /ooc.

[ICEninja]

For the record, Equinox is goodposting.

[ICEninja]

Okay, okay. Let me put it yet another way. Leave alone town/scum, scumslip/not scumslip, agree/disagree. Whom was it that introduced the possibility of masons?

See this is the part you are not understanding.

No one did

. No one said there was any possibility of them being masons. Any bit of you reading what I said saying they could be masons is you misunderstanding

Now do you understand my frustration on this bit? Yes I see what you are saying, but you are still absolutely 100% wrong.

You're completely changing the argument because you know you've been caught with your hand in the cookie jar. Let's be real simple here. You voted Titus. You never really suspected Titus. You voted Titus with the oh-so-apparent "IF Titus flips town... pisskop and Rhinox are next!" The next day rolls around... You vote Xay. You act like the town is "forcing you" to vote Xay with the oh-so-apparent "IF Xay flips town... RC and Rubicon are next (oh, and Kthx could be scum too *wink wink*)!"

This is so insanely far from reality I can't possibly believe you're town at this point. I've played with you, and you really aren't this bad. Since it is obvious that you don't

actually

believe I'm scum at this point, I'm going to defend myself here for the benefit of everyone else. For anyone who doesn't want to read quotestrips or doesn't care about our back and forward here, I'll include it in spoiler tags.

Within this spoiler is pretty convincing evidence of why RC is scum

.

Spoiler:

You voted Titus.

This statement right here is the extent of what was truthful.

You never really suspected Titus.

Really? Because the first time I mention Titus at all is me saying that Rhinox makes a good case for Titus scum, and my next post saying how I didn't like Titus's response and would support a wagon on her. My vote was, quite openly admitted, because of Rhinox's point made against her. I clarify my scum read beyond any possible doubt here, and

only

expressed suspicion of Rhinox should Titus flip scum because of how he dismantled the wagon on piss. The sheer amount of town play coming from Rhinox has simply made it too difficult for me to end up at this conclusion, however. I soon after state that I couldn't get behind the idea of both Titus and piss being town, though I have since admitted the possibility if and only if Xay is scum.

No where in my ISO whatsoever is anything even remotely suggesting that I think Titus is anything but town. So...what is that about hand in the cookie jar?

You voted Titus with the oh-so-apparent "IF Titus flips town... pisskop and Rhinox are next!"

What a joke. I had been on and off suspecting piss all day, and the way the wagon mechanics played out

very strongly

suggested piss scum should Titus flip town. Kthx has explained this repeatedly in great detail. If you're accusing me of this, then you should be taking up issue with Kthx as well, since it is mostly his own reasoning.

The next day rolls around... You vote Xay.

Really? My first post of the day came out with an instant piss vote. So the next day rolls around and I vote Xay?

BLATANT LIE

.

I then go on to pressure vote PrivateI (which in retrospect was pretty obviously a pressure vote and it accomplished nothing, oh well), but then my next vote is back on piss. I then spend quite a few posts pushing for your lynch. I have made 29 posts during day 2 at this point and have yet to vote Xay. I then go 12

more

posts without voting Xay.

If that wasn't fighting kicking and screaming to get who I think is scum lynched before finally realizing I'm getting nowhere, then I don't know what is.

"IF Xay flips town... RC and Rubicon are next (oh, and Kthx could be scum too *wink wink*)!"

Oh right, because being clear about who I will suspect based on flips is so scummy. I get called out on this pretty much every game, and I'm kind of tired of it. You've played with me before. You, once again, are not this stupid.

Really, the more I read you, the more I think you're just ecstatic over the prospect of lynching Xay and me and Rhinox and Kthx and Rubicon in no particular order. Whomever happens to be the flavor of the day.

I am ecstatic over the prospect of lynching you. If I can't lynch you then I'll tolerate a Xay lynch, because it either clears you or proves I'm right. I've never once stated that I'm interested in reading Rhinox, so this is a complete lie. I also have mostly been giving Kthx a town read. In fact, I've been very quite clear in who I think the entire scum team is. I know I've talked about it far more than those 3 posts but I've already done enough linking to myself.

As stupid as it is going to sound, I actually forgot that I had already forgotten about Xay's claim. I have tunneled on piss's slot pretty damn hard during day 2.

[ICEninja]

ICEninja said he thought he'd forgotten once before, which turned out to be true, and then he went and forgot/remembered again right after your post.

I didn't forget and remember again. I meant that I had forgotten until you asked me how many times I had forgotten. After you brought it up I remembered that I had previously forgotten.

God I sound like Pinocchio from Shrek.

I have forgotten a grand total of twice this game, both times because I was tunneling on someone (the D1 forget was because of Titus tunnel, D2 because of piss/RC tunnel).

Thanks for making me feel stupid, by the way.

[ICEninja]

While I can certainly be convinced of an epm lynch down the road, I'm not switching my vote this close to deadline unless it is to avoid a no lynch.

Attempting to start a new wagon with, what, 12 hours left is pretty bad.

You wouldn't happen to know that Xay is town and want to stay off a mislynch, hmm? I'd assume you're a scum buddy but I still think you make more sense as a buddy for RC.

[ICEninja]

I drank too much tonight. I probably won't be awake before the lynch happens.

If there isn't a majority lynch I am going to beat a bitch with a stick tomorrow. I will find you and beat you. With a stick.

[ICEninja]

I'm town because I didn't die. This is actually pretty awesome. At first I hated my role PM but now I think I'm actually going to win this game with it.

I am a compulsive hider who cannot hide behind the same target on consecutive nights

.

N1 I realized I hadn't really crumbed who I would hide behind so no one would know who to lynch if I hid behind scum and died. I hid behind Thomith (who is now Equinox), as I figured that slot was unlikely to kill me. I read Thomith as town, though not SO town as scum would kill him, and no vig would have much reason to shoot him. That would explain why I've more or less written off Thomith/Equinox as town from day 2 on. The fact that Equinox replaced in a confirmed town slot literally gave me faith in this game again.

Last night I actually did crumb who I would hide behind, based on the results of the lynch. I didn't want to hide behind piss/RC, as I'm already fairly convinced of his guilt, so instead I hid behind who I felt was a likely scum buddy for piss in the form of N. I did not die, so obviously N is town.

The fact that no one died

very strongly

suggests to me that scum attempted to kill me and failed. The fact that scum tried to kill me also suggests that I have more or less correctly called out the scum team. The fact that I now know that N is town means that my initial list of piss/fitz or pacman/Rubicon (or Kthx, but probably Rubicon) was spot on.

Being that we have the extra mislynch for fitz/pacman I'm pretty sure we've got this game in the books.

Vote RedCoyote

.

[ICEninja]

Wow I literally did not see that mod made this game semi-open. I didn't even think that was allowed. Had I read that and known there was a doc or something in this game I probably would have held off the claim for one more day, but oh well.

I don't see the logic of assuming that pacman is a scum doctor. Tracker and hider interact very nicely, and a doctor is a pretty weak town PR in my opinion. This tells me there is a VERY high likelihood of a scum role blocker. Role blocker + 2 goons vs. tracker + doc + screwy hider sounds like a balanced setup to me really. It also makes sense since every role is track-able, which mods tend to like to do. I was wondering why I was compulsive and can't hide behind the same target every night but I think that's to prevent me from staying alive too long. I believe my role was DESIGNED to die before lylo (which sucks for me, but oh well). Assuming a 3 man scum team, I had a 4/11 chance of dying night 1 and a 4/8 chance of dying night 2. Accounting for a 1/13 and 1/11 chance of being lynched, I'm looking at a 2/3ish chance to be dead before day 3 even starts, if no scum have been lynched. Yuck.

The fact that Rubicon is pushing that one of the PRs is anti-town leads me to believe he's probably scum. With my calling out the scum team, that's pretty much his only play. I got kind of lucky surviving both nights and confirming two town.

With what the mod posted about there being a protective role, unless there is an explicit counter claim I'm going to consider pacman to be confirmed town.

I really can't think of any reason at all why RC shouldn't be the lynch today.

[ICEninja]

I feel like I have a good idea why pacman claimed, but I'd like to hear it from him.

WHY would scum have a doctor? The only purpose it would serve is if we have a vig, and I don't think we have one.

[ICEninja]

I suppose? Especially since scum is alerted to the fact that we have a hider, and could intentionally use a doctor to clear scum as town. Plus with a tracker, could be "cleared" as doctor.

It seems like a REALLY long shot though. I'll probably only entertain this idea if we've only got cleared town left alive.

[ICEninja]

Rhinox, do you think the current site meta involves sending messages to hiders to confirm or deny their success? I simply didn't get a PM, but I lived. I suppose it is physically possible that I was supposed to die last night and simply wasn't informed that I was unsuccessful in hiding.

[ICEninja]

You guys are making me paranoid, I woke up yesterday morning thinking we had this game in the bag.

[ICEninja]

Oh and while it doesn't matter a whole lot, my breadcrumbing was here.

I tried to make it subtle enough to not show PR-ness but enough so that if I died people would find it.

In retrospect it wouldn't have mattered had I dropped a big PR bomb because I don't mind scum attempting to shoot me, but oh well.

[ICEninja]

I can see Kthx as a scum buddy with piss because piss was a bad teammate, wanted to bus for town cred. Obviously would have worked. Then suddenly a good player (RC) replaces in to the slot and suddenly he wants to keep teammate around. It kind of makes sense. You're the much more likely candidate for that scum slot though.

Thomith was just a slight town read. It wasn't huge or anything, but it just seemed a good bet. I specifically wanted to pick a weaker town read because stronger town reads had a better chance of getting shot.

Also, I'd say fitz is almost a guaranteed shoe-in for scum at this point, assuming we don't actually have any weird mafia doctor shenanigans.

[ICEninja]

The plan sounds good to me.

[ICEninja]

Lots of claims. The scum team is almost certainly RC, fitz, and one of Rubicon, you, and Rhinox in that descending order of likelihood.

[ICEninja]

I'm both compulsive and disallowed to target the same target on consecutive nights (probably to ensure I'm dead before D3 or so). The role is modified fairly heavy so I'm guessing that is what the mod meant?

[ICEninja]

Well either one of RC and pacman is lying.

I know he isn't a "hider role" because that is what I am, and a standard protective role is a cop not a commuter. I'm inclined to believe pacman at this point and prefer a RC lynch. I really don't think there's going to be both a hider AND a commuter.

This is getting frustrating though. We can't get this lynch wrong because we're probably going to need a mislynch for the last scum slot, so we cannot make this decision lightly.

[ICEninja]

Do you really think there is BOTH a commuter AND a hider in the same game?

[ICEninja]

I don't understand your question.

[ICEninja]

I only glanced through his spoiler for things directed to myself and my other scum reads. I don't recall seeing that to begin with.

[ICEninja]

I don't want to no-lynch. There's the possibility of getting another night kill prevented, which would give us the extra mislynch, and me dying during the night phase will currently not cost us a lynch. Both of these change if we no-lynch.

I kind of hope I'm not alive during any mylo phase, though. I'm a compulsive hider and could potentially not have anyone safe to target, meaning we can't no-lynch as we would automatically lose. We have to lynch at mylo if I'm alive.

I still think there is a

very

low chance that RC is town aligned, regardless of his role. As Rubicon pointed out, he could potentially be a scum commuter to screw with my role. That role as scum makes more sense in screwing with my ability than a scum aligned doctor.

I'm open to a fitz lynch too, since it just basically seems like he's scum regardless of the situation. RC is still slightly preferred. His role cannot be confirmed and town loses absolutely nothing lynching him, so I don't see his claim as any form of deterrent to a lynch. It will also give us information about pacman.

[ICEninja]

If you click on that second link, commuter is one of the standard protective roles that the Mod said he would choose from. This coupled with the fact that pacman is not playing as town at all tells me that pacman is lying either about his role, his alignment, or both.

Interesting. You're right, commuter is literally within that link, so even though he could have implied that a standard protective role would only mean doctor, he explicitly means that a commuter could be within that statement. This definitely could suggest that Pacman was actually lying the whole time. Oddly enough, with this all considered, RC's claim actually feels more town to me.

I still have a damn near impossible time thinking that RC is town. It is entirely possible htat they're BOTH scum and have actually set up these fake claims to ensure one of them lives. Especially with the idea that RC could be surviving night phases by withholding information about when he's planning on commuting. RC would certainly get tons of town cred should pacman be lynched and flip scum non power role.

Also, when I first read the mod's statements about the setup, I figured "non standard hider" meant the experimental slot. However, a quick search of the wiki reveals that a hider is explicitly normal, and simply making a role compulsive and/or unable to target a player on consecutive nights doesn't make the role non-normal (or experimental) but simply non-standard. Which is the verbage the mod used. A commuter, then,

could

exist in this game. I'm not convinced that it does, and if it does I'm not convinced it has to be town aligned (as pointed out it could act sort of as a Godfather to my role? Weird but...) but it gives me a tiny bit of pause.

I need to think about this some more. It seems like RC's claim was, in fact, a counter claim to pacman. As a result, I'd actually prefer we NOT lynch fitz's slot today, and lynch either pacman or RC.

Unvote

for now.

[ICEninja]

I had to read that post twice to fully wrap my head around it, but knowing that Equinox is town, and past experience demonstrating that there isn't any player on this site that I'd trust more with figuring this out, I'm feeling like we're on to something here.

To add to this, a commuter is a fairly rare role (I've never once encountered it in my 30ish games, and this is only the second time encountering a hider), and I don't see scum picking something so arbitrary to fake claim. I don't see anything for scum-non-commuter-RC to gain from making that claim in particular, especially with the breadcrumbs and everything. Also, with it being a typically town aligned role, it would be fairly safe for him to claim town commuter as a scum commuter.

However, as I pointed out earlier, RC's claim felt a lot more real and thought out than pacman blurting out that he's a doctor. I (correctly) guessed why he did it, but it is suboptimal town play unless he's on the chopping block. He wasn't, at least from where I was sitting.

Assuming a (hypothetical) 50-50 situation, where both RC and pacman have an equal chance of flipping scum, which flip gives us more information about the other?

If we lynch RC, there are 3 possible results:
1) Scum and commuter.
2) Scum and not commuter.
3) Town and commuter. I highly doubt RC is dumb enough to try to fake claim a PR as town in this situation.

If we lynch pacman, there are likewise 3 possible results:
1) Scum and doctor.
2) Scum and not doctor.
3) Town and doctor. I'm also hoping that he's good enough to not blurt out a fake doctor claim that early in the day like that.

I'm trying to wrap my head around this whole situation and figure out what guarantees information about the other.

Also remember that if we lynch RC today it forces scum to NK pacman, whereas if we lynch pacman today RC won't be night killed, and they'll most likely target a cleared player.

At the moment I'm leaning very slightly towards a pacman lynch, simply based on how the claims happened, but it's close in my mind.

[ICEninja]

I largely agree with Rhinox's big wall post, and I can't fathom a situation where fitz isn't scum. Every single other situation I run through has room for error, but not so much with his slot. I don't think there's much of a point to mass claiming at this juncture, however. If someone else has relevant information, they probably would have brought it forth by now. If they haven't, there's probably a reason for it. If we want to discuss one tomorrow we could, but at this point I don't see it as very helpful.

Originally I really wanted to make sure we get one of the claimed PR roles dead 100%, but town doesn't seem to be coming to much of a consensus here.

This also alleviates the need to find a replacement, which could REALLY stall this game out if it takes a while to digest everything that has happened. D3 is a headache for me to figure out, and I've got a full picture of what's going on because of D1 and D2.

This is the right move.

Vote havingfitz

.

[ICEninja]

Also, I'd like to point out at this point that it is very possible that I did indeed call out the entire scum team during D2 and they attempted to kill me based on that. Perhaps they left Rhinox alive because his reads were wrong and he already proved himself once adept at getting the wrong lynch. It is also possible that Rhinox

is

the last scum, though that seems less likely.

[ICEninja]

Let me ask this question:

Is there anyone

opposed

to a fitz lynch? I feel like there will be someone opposed to an RC lynch and someone opposed to a pacman lynch, but I don't think anyone recognizes much in the way of a downside to a fitz lynch. Even scum are going to want the town cred of bussing their partner since they know he has absolutely zero chance of making it to lylo honestly.

Part of the problem right now is with all this talk of theory and such, there doesn't seem to be any concrete plan of which lynch is best for today. I feel like this solves the problem, and gives us a smaller lynch pool to work with tomorrow without any distractions of other possible lynches.

Plus I know for me having a flipped scum will give a bit of a morale boost.

[ICEninja]

Plus the number of "cleared" players suggests that his slot has an incredibly high chance of being scum.

[ICEninja]

We are

not

lynching Rhinox today. The fact that Rubicon is pushing for this makes me more and more confident that I'm right about the scum lineup, as attempting to lynch Rhinox feels like a Hail Mary last resort strategy to clutch a win.

The lynch pool today is fitz, RC, and EPM. I see reasonings to not lynch the two latter, so I proposed we lynch the former.

Hopefully tomorrow we'll have some solid insight as to who the better lynch between EPM and RC is.

[ICEninja]

After playing through too many situations in my mind, I have decided to not announce who I plan to hide behind. With a scum lynch today, there will be 3 players who will result in my death and 1 who I am not allowed to hide behind, but 5 players safe to hide behind.

I'll take those odds.

[ICEninja]

I can't aim for scum and tell everyone who it is, because if I'm announcing I'm hiding behind someone and they end up being town, scum is going to kill that person. If I happen to die tonight, people need to

NOT

use my death as speculation trying to decide who scum is. With fitz gone there will only be 2 scum left. I know pretty comfortably where not to hide to avoid them. With what is left, scum is going to be playing a guessing game with my hiding. A lot of it is going to come down to luck, but the numbers are in my favor.

I can't count on the fact that pacman really is a doctor.

Someone asked what my read of Kthx is, and it's probably town because there are much higher likelihood scums. Pretty sure EPM is the scum between the two claims now, with the way information has been presented, and Rubicon continues to seem like the most likely 3rd scum.

[ICEninja]

If I clear another town and live, we win the game. We'll have more living cleared town than living scum.

[ICEninja]

I'm assuming fitz is scum and that after today there will only be 2 scum, against 3 confirmed town assuming I succeed.

[ICEninja]

For the record I don't feel locked in to lynching fitz today. With the current information we have, I prefer a fitz lynch, but will tolerate either of RC or EPM. Probably a slight preference on EPM.

We're going to have to lynch fitz anyway. Tomorrow we can decide who to lynch between RC and EPM when the low hanging fruit scum is already taken out.

[ICEninja]

What do you (and others) think about the idea that a commuter is not a white-listed normal role in relation to RC's alignment? I think it'd be a pretty risky role to fake claim given that any other non-whitelisted role would effectively be a counter claim, since only 1 non-whitelisted role is allowable. That makes it not a very likley role for scum to fake claim IMO. Do you think its possible RC could have replaced in and decided to just crumb a standard protection role from the list in the link without cross-referencing whether it would actually be a whitelisted role?

This is basically why I have a slight preference of lynching EPM over RC.

The fact is, however, that I still have my D1 wagon reasoning. That never really went away, it just became less important in the face of new, more significant, information. RC being town means there really were 3 wagons on 3 town on D1, which is crazy. I suppose at this juncture, however, I have to admit that I could be wrong about all of that largely because of what you just said.

I kind of feel bad for idk right now, as lynching his slot really is the best option at the moment.

[ICEninja]

Looks like we have a bit of a 1v1 here in idk and epm.

I want to hear what Kthx has to say.

[ICEninja]

Epm is a tolerable lynch.

[ICEninja]

See this is why I want to lynch idk. There isn't a good reason to NOT lynch him, whereas with both EPM there is going to be some measure of doubt. I suppose Kthx's point is decent though. I still prefer an idk lynch but I'm ok hammering EPM if that's the direction we're moving.

In all seriousness at this point I just can't really conceieve of a scum team not involving that slot. It is the lower risk lynch IMO.

[ICEninja]

I'm ok with waiting for people to come in and give their 2 cents but I'm honestly not sure what more can be added today based on the information we currently have. I don't want to let scum draw today on excessively long, as that seems to result in things being more convoluted than before. I asked not long ago if anyone had an issue lynching fits/idk and Kthx was the only one with anything agiant it. And it wasn't really enough to make me think the idk slot can be town.

If anyone has anything new to say then let's have it. If not, I think it's about time for some votes to come down.

[ICEninja]

We need to lynch scum today. My chances of staying alive tonight tank pretty harshly if we miss.

Let's just go with the safer lynch today.

Nothing is getting done anyway.

[ICEninja]

You are missing something. I can't really envision any scum team that doesn't have you on it. The fact that RC is the only slot alive that was a main wagon still gives me pause that EPM

COULD

be town and RC be scum despite how much evidence points to the opposite being true.

With your slot there's not much of anything that gives me pause.

[ICEninja]

N that's a lame reason for a vote. Coming from confirmed town I can't hate it that much, but come on.

And idk, what you seem to have missed is much of the game. It is during day 2 where we realized that your slot is scum. I'm not going to go out of my way to explain to scum why I'm lynching them. If town would like to know I'll answer.

Even though I prefer an idk lynch, I'll hammer EPM some time tomorrow if I can't get any further support for an idk lynch.

[ICEninja]

I cannot announce who I target or scum wins. Unfortunately due to my inability to target same person consecutive nights I am not sure town can still pull through.

I'm gonna ask the mod a question abd do my best but unless EPM is trolling us (fairly likely so I'm not too worried) I'm not sure there's a way we can swing this.

Even if he is town I have a plan that I MIGHT be able to swing.

RC if he is town, I'm praying you're town.

[ICEninja]

It's going to come down to RC being scum or town and how mod responds to my question probably.

Or scum screwing up.

I'm still thinking EPM is scum as it seems 50/50 that scum screw with town like this, but we'll see.

[ICEninja]

It runs even slightly deeper than that. I re-read my role PM and the wording of something could potentially allow for a town win if I'm interpreting this correctly and we do EVERYTHING right.

[ICEninja]

I'm on my phone (haven't had internet for a few days and won't until tomorrow but I don't go on V/LA unless absolutely necessary) so I can't really check all that well, can someone go and confirm this was actually a hammer? Twilight has been pretty long and if it wasn't hammer I REALLY would prefer to lynch idk at this juncture.

[ICEninja]

So my thought yesterday was that I could hide behind the same person a second night if I was unsuccessful in hiding behind my target the first night. Two things, 1) I misinterpreted the wording of my role PM so even if I hid behind a commuter and failed I would still not be able to target him tomorrow (which is what I was counting on, the extra player to potentially be able to target) and 2) with EPM flipping town I am significantly more concerned about scumRed.

So long story short,

Rhinox is town

. He was a fairly safe bet and with our doctor dying tonight is was about 95% sure either Equinox or N was going tonight.

I must say, I really wish we lynched idk yesterday. We would have got a scum, I would have died hiding behind RC, then everyone would have known who to lynch tomorrow and to leave EPM alive. Right now our chances are...fairly slim. The odds are very much against me to survive to endgame, and we have zero mislynches left.

I suppose the fact that we have Rhinox confirmed town and that I'm almost positive he won't die tonight gives me

some

hope but this is looking fairly grim.

I still think we need to go idk then RC then Rubicon.

Vote idk

. Yeah, I know it is lylo and all, but he isn't town. If he is, we've pretty much lost already and it's better to just let scum dogpile on the votes now instead of drawing this out. I haven't exactly given up, but well, hope isn't exactly abundant at the moment.

[ICEninja]

Not exactly what I would expect from scum, interesting.

I already voted idk though, so if you want to sheep you have it right there.

[ICEninja]

Since we've reached this point, I'll just say that the wording of your role implies you can target the same person more than once, as long as it's not in a row.

I felt like I made that clear from the start.

Yeah this game...I feel like I played so well but it just never worked out.

[ICEninja]

IMO just play it out, throw some votes down, lynch some scum. It is impossible to say for sure what's going to happen. Especially since Rhinox missed something in what he played out, there is a tiny tiny hope of still pulling this through.

Not that we should spend hours of our lives fighting for it, but there's enough hope to at least throw the votes down and deny scum a flawless victory.

[ICEninja]

Um was that just a scum hammer?

[ICEninja]

If it was then whatever. I had such a messy role that IMO was designed incredibly poorly both for.the player and for balance sake. I really have a lot to say about it post-game.

I wouldn't have paid NEARLY as much attention to this game as I did it if weren't for the sheer amount of idle time I've had lately, being more or less temporarily not working.

[ICEninja]

We're you planning on voting for idk?

[ICEninja]

For confirmed town, suggesting I hide behind RC isn't the smartest way for you to contribute. I don't realistically see Kthx as scum if RC is town. It just makes no sense.

No, it's idk, RC, and Rubicon. RC probably just bussed his buddy, and is making it look like he's town. I suppose it is possible that the team is RC, Rubicon, and Kthx, meaning we just lost.

I have to say twilights last a long time this game. They make me twitchy since there's a possibility the game is already over.

[ICEninja]

Well if the game isn't over I'll look over everything again. I won't announce who I'm hiding behind though.

I seriously doubt it though. You really haven't done anything useful this game, either. I hate having useless confirmed town.

[ICEninja]

Well if the game isn't over I'll look over everything again. I won't announce who I'm hiding behind though.

I seriously doubt it though. You really haven't done anything useful this game, either. I hate having useless confirmed town.

Yeah the devil face by RC definitely implies it.

[ICEninja]

Whoa I have no idea why I quoted myself. Damn phone posting.

[ICEninja]

Whew alright. First thing, I would actually like to apologize to town. The way I exploited my role was legitimately unfair for your side. That combined with a sheer number of replacements made this game virtually impossible for town to win.

So. Mafia traitor compulsive hider. This is

both

the worst role to play in a normal that I've ever seen and the role with the most possibility to ruin the game based on play (with only a mafia framer being worse but that is based on luck, a successful frame has decided entire games before based on a single night action, ICKY) depending on the setup.

First, regarding my reaction receiving this role PM. I was...pretty unhappy. I'm biased in that I always prefer to play town over scum, as the thrill of the flip is my favorite part of this game, but this role made it even worse. The part about playing scum that sucks so much is the feeling of isolation during the day phase. During the night phase you're able to talk and plan, which really alleviates that, and many games have day talk these days which actually allows me to enjoy playing scum because it feels a lot less like you're on your own, one screwup away from being lynched.

Being a traitor doesn't give you that comfort of playing with your allies, though. Sometimes traitors are attempting to get "assimilated" in to the mafia squad by being the target of the night kill, but being a hider, I knew that it wasn't possible.

So then there is the other half of my role PM is being a hider. By itself, a town hider (compulsive or not) is generally best played as a suicide bomber unless you're super town. If a town hider gets super town status then they should be playing to dodge kills. However, most hiders play as a sort of suicide bomber. A cleverly crumbed hider dying behind scum flips and all but ensures scum's death, even better than a cop guilty claim. I obviously didn't get to do this. Instead I had to pick the player who was least likely to die and dodge my own team's kills. Because I had absolutely no control over who my team was going to kill and could be on the nasty end of that should they do something unpredictable.

After only a single kill N1 I figured I was more or less safe to simply hide behind whoever was probably going to get lynched the next day, and once I realized that the mod had actually pointed out that there was a non standard hider in this game without a second mafia team and without a town vig, that I could claim and absolutely

nothing

could stop me. I had to come up with a non-standard hider role to claim, and who the hell would suspect a scum based hider if there's absolutely NOTHING to kill him? The

only

way anyone could possibly guess I was scum is if I was exactly as I am, a traitor hider. Which is quiiiiiite a stretch.

SO basically I had a role that was lame to play and broke the game. It wasn't really much fun .

I honestly didn't even feel like I played very well. I pulled a hell of a lot of suspicion early on in the game just because I suck at playing scum. I pretty much relied on the fact that once I "cleared" N, that my buddies knew what my real role was. If they realized what I was up to, then town had little to no counter-play.

[ICEninja]

Yeah I wasn't sure what else to claim besides compulsive and non-target-consecutive.

I feel that the fact that the mod announcing only 1 anti-town faction makes it LESS obvious that the hider was not town aligned. There weren't any kills for a mafia hider to be attempting to avoid, unless you somehow speculated I was dodging my own team's kills. I really don't follow any train of thought that would cause you to arrive to the conclusion I was scum based on setup speculation.

[ICEninja]

So I just read the mafia QT and realized both myself and the scum team knew who all 3 scums were. This setup was...very odd. I was basically a full scum except without night talk.

[ICEninja]

Did ICE just ScumSlip partners with piss/RC?!?

609- "I feel like if RC is lynched then Xay actually has a fairly low chance of being scum"

He doesn't say 'if RC flips Scum', he said "if RC is lynched"... thus showing knowledge of Scum alignment.

Balls. Nice catch. I really suck at scum, honestly.

[ICEninja]

The safety and believability of my claim won the game for my team. There's a reason scum like to claim hider, you don't die.

[ICEninja]

^Yup.

Except playing as the hider would have been WAY worse. Take away the scum team's knowledge of the hider is much much better. That way the traitor is trying to signal to the scum team who he is and what he is doing, which is what I thought I was doing and what I thought I had to do. It should be this way and a suggestion in the role PM letting me know that the scum team has no knowledge of me.

[ICEninja]

Fair enough.