Mini 1543--Natirasha's On Parole!(Game Over)

[zMuffinMan]

prod dodge

[zMuffinMan]

wait i'm still alive in this game right?

[zMuffinMan]

yep i am

ok

prod dodge

[zMuffinMan]

So from a probability standpoint, A makes sense

no it doesn't

[zMuffinMan]

Scum shoots vig (?)

this part, specifically

why would scum shoot the player who was 100% going to be protected if they know there's a town doc

[zMuffinMan]

oh, also, i think my post got eaten, or maybe i thought it but didn't post it... no lynching isn't the worst idea here

i'm trying to figure out why there was no night kill last night

-> it wasn't accidental, the day starting early suggests whatever happened last night was a conscious decision
-> shooting cabd if mafiassk is town makes no sense because he was pretty much guaranteed to be targeting cabd
-> only conclusion i can really make here is there was an intentional no kill for whatever reason

lack of claimed investigative abilities means scum probably don't feel in any immediate danger so can play around with a no kill gambit for whatever wifom purposes they were aiming for. couple possibilities here:

-> mafiassk is scum and the no kill thing was an ill-thought out gambit to be like "hey there's no other reason for no kill occurring last night so i must be town who protected cabd!"
-> cabd is scum, similar reasoning
-> scum WIFOMZ trying to get us paranoid about stuff, potentially trying to get a mafiassk lynch, i dunno

side note: i do not believe the scum team has a full role blocker

or if they do, and this game is anything other than 11:2, then holy fuck at nati's sense of balance

anyway, tired. will read stuffs tomorrow

[zMuffinMan]

still w8ing 4 town guyett

how town are you expecting him to look?

katsuki looked town, and guyett hasn't done anything amazingly town but he still looks more town than other players

Why has there been no suspicion of selkies today?

i have a similar poe list to guyett, and he has selkies in that poe list, so i wouldn't say there's no suspicion of selkies, just no push for a selkies lynch atm

[zMuffinMan]

Bert do you really think Nacho is scum?

i think i asked you this at some point recently but i don't remember the answer and i cbf finding it

who do you actually think is scum right now?

[zMuffinMan]

Lol @ bert thinking me-ffery-nacho scumteam.

in my brief moments of tinfoil paranoia that keep me up at night, i think this is a possibility

[zMuffinMan]

do you think scum, knowing there's a town doc, tried to kill you last night?

or what do you think about the complete lack of night kill?

[zMuffinMan]

or more specifically, is there any point in thinking about things re 2749?

[zMuffinMan]

coz my tinfoil theory here is that you no killed because (a) you're not actually a vig, and you can claim roleblocked, and (b) mafiassk was going to protect you so you can claim "lol obv i was protected no other explanation makes sense"

and i don't feel too good about selkies / nacho for entirely separate reasons (partially because others look more town, partially because gut twinges) so i lie awake at night staring at the ceiling thinking, "hmmmmm something doesn't make sense here"

i also don't really get why ffery is confident nacho is town here - or not confident, but at least thinks it's the case (with minimal interaction, and no real... trajectory... on the nacho read, afaik), and since ffery isn't talking about who she actually thinks is scum here, i dunno what's up with her atm

[zMuffinMan]

Nah I'm going to be Anti-town and put it off until after nightphase so I can discuss my fakeclaim with my buddy

...This is not a townslip, try again.

yes it is. think

[zMuffinMan]

my thoughts on it are that it's either an unintentional town slip (the not being conscious of scum having day talk part - if it wasn't already obvious, that specifically is what i think the townslip is) or it's meant to look like a townslip if he's scum (but it's rather subtle and not something people will pick up on so i dunno if that would be something intentional)

[zMuffinMan]

also it's a combination of not being conscious of it and how natural it felt that makes me think town slip

i mean the only real way i could see that not being a town slip is if notscience-scum wasn't aware day talk is publicly known but i dunno, i already had him as a town read and that basically solidified it

[zMuffinMan]

er. i would prefer he stops acting like a tard if he's town, but i don't think he was doing it in a way that looks like scum-trying-to-avoid-being-lynched tactics

[zMuffinMan]

i mean, the basic rundown of posts prior to `IK being lynched is him saying he was about to be lynched and asking for bert/notscience/guyett to get looked over tomorrow (today) because of the "townbloc" stuff. especially ns because ns is being ns. then i bring up #2388 and explain why i think it was a town slip. he agreed and said not to mention it unless notscience being run up (i've already mentioned it in passing today though, so whatever) but saying the townbloc stuff is still awful. then the moderator started being a meanie and said IK couldn't post anymore (i dunno why exactly, something to do with being dead or whatever) and then IK stopped posting (WHICH I FIND REALLY SUSPICIOUS).

also i stopped posting there after IK died because i don't have a strong enough read on aronis either way that i want to share my thoughts with him

the tl;dr of all this is that nothing aronis has done in the last few pages look like anything other than derp and waving the mysterious "X" does nothing when i know what it is and it doesn't help him survive if he's scum


and i'm thinking of lynching one of selkies / nacho today but i haven't decided which yet - i do not think they're both town, i am not sure if they're both scum

[zMuffinMan]

also i forgot about deadline, so i'll prob be doing some reading and stuff tomorrow after sleep coz i am fucking tired right now and not in the mood to do reading

[zMuffinMan]

it's not actually a dichotomy since i'm considering the possibility you're both scum

[zMuffinMan]

though i don't really know why you're responding to that and not any of the numerous votes popping up on you

[zMuffinMan]

muffin what is with this weak ass bullshit interaction
you've been thinking about me-scum for about 3 weeks now
haven't you reached a fucking conclusion yet?

prior to the recent burst of activity, you posted like twice in the last 3 weeks and both times have been "omg guyett is so scum, he's not looking town enough"

i'm waiting for you to do something that actually looks town if you're town

[zMuffinMan]

FUSHION HAAAA

there's no h in fusion, only scum thinks there's a h in fusion

[zMuffinMan]

aaaaaaaaaaaand you're still not doing anything that looks town

[zMuffinMan]

that vote count is technically wrong since i'm not voting

[zMuffinMan]

nati went through isos and checked for the last person people were voting (including the period of time votes didn't count)

[zMuffinMan]

nachooooo

do something that looks town pls

[zMuffinMan]

like i know he doesn't understand what i'm doing here so he should suspect me and be pushing the hell out of me here, but he isn't

not really. even if i were more invested in this game (and i'm practically not-at-all-invested at the moment), i doubt i'd be pushing you all that hard.

but if you know you're playing an awkward game that warrants me pushing you, why are you playing like that? if i were more active and demanding for your death, you'd probably be dead by now, through play that you acknowledge i should push you for. and you don't seem to care.

[zMuffinMan]

ffery can you talk about your nacho read?

[zMuffinMan]

and also your read on me

[zMuffinMan]

It's not very persuasive, no.

how is it not very persuasive? it was a complete mindset slip that showed he's either not conscious of the day talk or pretending not to be conscious of the day talk. and given it was a somewhat subtle one-time thing, the former is far more likely

tbh it's not even the main reason i'm townreading him, it's just something i noticed in addition to the town read i already had on him

i don't think muffin gives notsci a fake townslip and then pushes that townslip down the road, doesn't seem his style. doesn't mean they can't be scum together though.

this doesn't even make sense? you don't think i'd do that as scum with him, but you think i could be scum with him?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm gonna sleep but ill be around from after i wake up to deadline. night

[zMuffinMan]

i was actually considering the possibility of going with a random lynch for shits and giggles

*IF* selkies is town (and i'm wavering on this a lot) it seems to give us a better chance at hitting scum than lynching from any of the currently viable wagons

[zMuffinMan]

you're gamesolving

this, for example, doesn't seem a good reason to be town reading me. i *think* i try to look like i'm game solving as either alignment

plz plz plz explain why muffin is scum?

also this post weirded me out on a lot of levels, because it implies a strong-ish town read (or at least stronger than i've ever seen from ffery in recent times) and also implies that if nacho were to give some sort of reasoning (as though he really had any, lol) she'd be open to changing her mind or something? i dunno

[zMuffinMan]

i dunno. i might cast a vote just for information purposes but my inner troll is calling for a random lynch

[zMuffinMan]

I've been noticing in meta dives and in newbie games that more and more, scum players are "townslipping" about being ignorant of known data

always in a far more blatant way though, no?

[zMuffinMan]

but random is lol

[zMuffinMan]

why are you asking us to vote when you're not voting?

[zMuffinMan]

why is goodfather a better lynch?

still for reasons from yesterday?

it is far more likely for a townie to be lynched than scum

that seems like an argument against lynching ever more than an argument against random lynching

[zMuffinMan]

I'm just saying that a majority of the players alive are town, so if nati chooses someone at random, we have a 1/11 chance of no one being lynched. And every one of us has a 9.0909 (1/11) percent chance of being lynched randomly, and with 7 townies left (which seems to be the consensus) the chances of a townie dying are 63.6363%

as is the case with any lynch

And if you don't vote and we have a random lynch muffin, you can die tomorrow for all I care. Or what would be really cool, is if that happened and scum muffin got lynched.

you aren't voting dipshit, if a random lynch happens it's going to be your fault as much as mine

[zMuffinMan]

and no don't give me self-appointed hammerer bullshit. if you're that worried about a random lynch occurring, then vote someone you moronic pile of shit

[zMuffinMan]

see you're concerned about a random lynch occurring but not enough to vote for someone and make a wagon happen

why?

[zMuffinMan]

dw

ill pretend to vote at the last minute with broken vote tags

[zMuffinMan]

vote: selkies

[zMuffinMan]

side note: phone autocorrects selkies > smelliest

coincidence? i think not

[zMuffinMan]

rAnDoM lYncH ftW

[zMuffinMan]

if the random lynch lands on aronis

i will be the happiest person that was ever happy

[zMuffinMan]

pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis pls random lynch aronis

i figure if i strongly wish for this enough, it might just come true

[zMuffinMan]

what did i say?

[zMuffinMan]

so don't quote it

[zMuffinMan]

lol and how did i do that? paraphrase it

[zMuffinMan]

ftr, the gist of our conversation in the neighbourhood QT after nati declared random lynch was:

aronis: hope you die
me: nah, hope you die
aronis: no u
me: i'm not going to die, i have luck on my side. (then i used the QT dice roll)
aronis tried faking the QT dice roll using bbcode bold/italics tags
i loled
aronis spent half an hour trying to figure out how i did the dice roll but in the end could only fake it with html bold and italics tags
aronis then spent the rest of the night threatening to lie about something i said in the QT last night if i didn't tell him how to roll dice in QTs
i didn't tell him

side note: if you know how to roll dice in QTs, please don't tell aronis

[zMuffinMan]

Sent it to Natirasha.

ftr, the gist of our conversation in the neighbourhood QT after nati declared random lynch was:

aronis: hope you die
me: nah, hope you die
aronis: no u
me: i'm not going to die, i have luck on my side. (then i used the QT dice roll)
aronis tried faking the QT dice roll using bbcode bold/italics tags
i loled
aronis spent half an hour trying to figure out how i did the dice roll but in the end could only fake it with html bold and italics tags

Then later you made a post about why bert should be killed, then freaked out and tried faking the Mod, etc. So I told you that if you told me the dice formula I would overlook it and you said no and said it wasn't a scumslip, etc.

loling hard

[zMuffinMan]

i find this aronis/muffin exchange super interesting though. i wont comment until aronis posts his side of the story tho

why do you think it's super interesting?

aronis has already given his side of the story? read 3286 - he basically admitted to all the events happening except the part where he threatened to lie about what i said in the QT. now extrapolate what you know of aronis from what he's done so far in this game, and ask anyone who knows the sorts of things i'm likely to say as scum whether they think i would make a post about why i think bert should be killed as scum (lol. trufax, originally aronis wanted to say i asked who my partners wanted to kill, and i told him nobody was going to buy that because i would never say something like that as scum, so he had to come up with a better lie - he didn't)

the sad thing is i'm not even sure it makes him scum, just someone i never want to play with again and if he actually is town, he will be the first person i've ever blacklisted and i'll try to wotc him from every game i play if he signs up to something i'm in.

[zMuffinMan]

the QT from last night is fucking lolworthy though

anyone spectating from the dead QT should ask for access to it

[zMuffinMan]

look, dipshit, anyone who knows anything about what i would or wouldn't say as scum will know you're lying so shut the fuck up and prod dodge for the rest of the game if you're town, ok? you're a fucking atrocious player

[zMuffinMan]

i'm going to explain how much of a dumbfuck you actually are because you clearly haven't actually researched the things i would actually say as scum.

even IF i ever thought it was a good idea to kill bert (and there is no way i would, even if he were a universal town read, because he loses lylos like it's a cool thing to do), i would lump him in the same category as i would PV (i.e. "ugh i hate having to kill VIs"). there is no way i would ever call bert a threat. in fact, i'm not even sure i use the word "threat" to describe anyone as scum, because i don't think in terms of "threats" when i'm scum. i do sometimes talk about kills that need to happen, but i don't think i ever say it's because they're a threat.

do your research if you're going to lie about something i said, you braindead moron

[zMuffinMan]

aronis, the fact it took you that long to vote for someone you supposedly think is confirmed scum proves you're both lying and a dumbass who excretes things with more intelligence than yourself on a daily basis

[zMuffinMan]

I think its muffin and ns

i think you might be wrong

[zMuffinMan]

i had some thoughts about it being selkies+nacho actually

i think someone near the end of yesterday asked whether they thought selkies big wall on goodfather was bussing. at first i thought no, but then i thought about how ffery was handling the goodfather claim and it didn't look natural at all. i prodded ffery about it several times and all i remember her saying was that she still thought goodfather was scum. like yeah, ok, she turned out to be right, but there was a complete lack of analysis going into the read after the nurse claim happened (except maybe a brief mention of protective roles not making a lot of sense or something but given the claimed town power at the time was compulsive N2 vig + doc + nurse i don't see that as a lot of town power in a 10:3)

as for nacho, i remembered him dodging all my questions about how his read on goodfather developed D2 + i just think he doesn't look town in this game

i need to go back and look at some stuff some time today

[zMuffinMan]

though if one of them is town, i think guyett is more likely scum than ns

[zMuffinMan]

i need to ISO goodfather and muffin side-by-side to see if anything is there

i am interested in what you conclude from this

[zMuffinMan]

also interesting (at least from my pov but i'm obvtown so from everyone else's pov as well) is that everyone off the goodfather wagon yesterday (apart from goodfather) was town

which means scum were eagerly jumping on the bus for whatever town credit it was worth

might go back and look at that properly at some point in the near future

[zMuffinMan]

I think the most telling thing tomorrow will be looking at the way people handled the claim of nurse

btw

just to fully explain what was going on with how i treated goodfather D2. i picked up on him softing his role pretty hard well before mafiassk claimed doc and concluded the nurse claim was legitimate (though you can see most of this if you look over how i treated him, especially around the time of his claim). turns out i was right about the claim being legitimate, wrong about the alignment part of things *shrug*

side note that isn't particularly important but still: i think scum have a JOAT with 1-shot rolecop, 1-shot roleblock and i think both of those were used on cabd at some point in this game

[zMuffinMan]

i think the neighbourhood with daytalk was designed to be some sort of strong town force or something (it's the only real explanation i can think of if it's 10:3 and scum obviously have at the very least a JOAT on top of the back-up nurse)

i don't think balance discussion really matters at this point, though?

[zMuffinMan]

like doc + en vig + neighbours vs nurse (which somewhat nullifies the en vig if scum take out the doc) and at least a JOAT if not two separate roles (roleblocked cabd N2 and rolecopped him at some point)

i dunno how much value nati puts on neighbours

maybe he thinks that's balanced

[zMuffinMan]

no i didn't. it was something i talked about last night though as the only possible explanation for aronis being town - nothing to do with balance

[zMuffinMan]

i mentioned it because last night i was trying to make sense of (a) the lack of kill on aronis N2 and (b) the scum slip from goodfather yesterday suggesting a rolecop on cabd

two separate roles is unlikely, especially since there's no other evidence of roleblocker in play (last night woulda been a perfect opportunity to block mafiassk and kill cabd, for example, if there was a full roleblocker) sooooooooooo i concluded that aronis being town meant a JOAT with at least 1-shot rolecop, 1-shot roleblock if aronis was town

further (though i'm not entirely sure how much can be gained from this) i was wondering why cabd was blocked N2 if aronis was town and the only real explanation for it i can think of is that scum were worried that cabd was going to shoot one of them

but i don't remember who cabd was thinking about shooting at that point in time - at some point he mentioned making the lynched player a vengeful but that didn't happen coz IK wanted bert dead (and if not bert, mafiassk or aronis) and they were all town sooooooooooooooo don't really get why he was blocked unless they were worried about him going rogue

[zMuffinMan]

also i need to, at some point, go back and read the start of D3 because i'm thinking the lack of kills N2 was a planned no kill in the hopes of getting a mafiassk mislynch to happen and i don't remember who was floating that around

[zMuffinMan]

guyett

does a 2T1S 3-man neighbourhood favours scum or town (in terms of balance)?

[zMuffinMan]

so you think a 2T1S neighbourhood is more scum-sided than town-sided, and you think 10:3 is balanced with town having a doc and an even-night vig to counter a back-up doc + JOAT (with at least roleblock+rolecop) + scum-sided mechanic?

IF scum had killed N2 and not blocked cabd's shot, D3 would have been mylo in a 13p game

[zMuffinMan]

Actually looking at VC's you're not looking too scummy anymore

well, that's really cool and all, but one of the biggest things i do as scum is look for ways to manipulate VCA, so yeah (besides that, i don't think the votecounts really say much about me at all, so i don't know how you got that)

Nacho initiated the wagon on SSK at the start of D2, would scum wagon up on a doc if they rolecoped him the previous night?

except if it's a JOAT and not a full rolecop, cabd was the one who got rolecopped, not mafiassk

scum knew there was (likely) a doc in the game because of the nurse but they didn't know who the doc was

[zMuffinMan]

3 town neighbors isn't even pro-town TBQH.

It's just paranoia-inducing.

*shrug* it's debatable. i was reading IK as town and he was reading me as town. if aronis wasn't aronis, it could have been a pretty powerful force in this game - like a semi-mason group with daytalk that scum would have been unaware of if aronis wasn't run up D1

[zMuffinMan]

i don't think ns is scum

[zMuffinMan]

though

i dunno why neither selkies nor ns are concerned with figuring out what was going on with the ross wagon d1. coz like. that seems like a pretttttttttttttttty huge indicator that the other is very likely scum

[zMuffinMan]

i don't really think ns makes sense as scum with anyone still alive

except for maaaaaaybe selkies

interactions with katsuki/guyett and nacho all game haven't really looked like scum-scum interactions

also think his attitude towards cabd this game (somewhat antagonistic, "DOOOOOOOOOOOO IIIIIIIIIIIIITTTTTTTTTTTT PUSSY, KILL ME") looks more likely town than scum

and there's that thing i still think is more likely a townslip than anything

soooooooooooooooooo

someone convince me i'm wrong or i don't think i'll be voting ns today

[zMuffinMan]

welllll it's not technically confirmed yet since i haven't been on at the same time as either selkies head but since i'm super obvtown that's a given anyway

[zMuffinMan]

(if i were scum with selkies, i'd be getting ready to do an ACCIDENTAL HAMMER right about now for shits and giggles) (this time after checking the vote count)

[zMuffinMan]

(also by the same logic, you can rule me out as scum with nacho coz there's no way i'd pass up an opportunity to do it with him again this game, so him voting notscience early pretty much rules out me+nacho team)

[zMuffinMan]

Ross was the counterwagon to Aronis?

yes

do you think it was scum piling onto aronis and no scum on ross or something? coz right now it's just you and notscience unconfirmed from the ross wagon, so unless you think VCA is a piece of shit and the competing D1 wagons were like all scum on one and no scum on the other then...?

it's weird that this wasn't a bigger concern to you when guyett brought it up

[zMuffinMan]

Good news is Selkies and Muffin proba aren't the scum team

i'm overwhelmed by your amazing insight

[zMuffinMan]

why is ns scum

[zMuffinMan]

other people

[zMuffinMan]

who exactly do you think is scum with ns?

coz where i sit at the moment is i see two people voting ns with a third wanting to vote ns, and i don't really think ns is scum

so

either scum are salivating at this mislynch happening

or i'm wrong about him and someone is bussing (or preparing to bus) him

i still think nacho is scum and i don't think anything he posts at this point is going to change my mind about that unless he somehow manages to look really, really town or something some time soon - doubtful

i'm just not sure who he's scum with. i don't think it's ns. selkies makes more sense as his partner than you

i _intend_ to do some reading in this game but likely won't have time til the weekend

though you asking me whether i intend to do anything productive when you've done... shit-all outside of pull up a couple votecounts and call ns scum is fucking hilarious

[zMuffinMan]

like i mean instead of whining about ns not being lynched you could address, say, 3488 or something? or i dunno, look for who you think ns's partner is (coz, hey, it being mylo and all makes that kinda fucking relevant, no?)

[zMuffinMan]

well that's cute nacho but im not scum so you just admitted to playing to scum win con

gg scum slip

[zMuffinMan]

will quick hammer for win when not on phone so i can hammer with a funny gif when i declare the win

[zMuffinMan]

heh you think im joking

[zMuffinMan]

i know you can't stop it, that's why im not in any rush. troll lyfe

[zMuffinMan]

Tomorrow will be more interesting, but I'm voting you out of the gate and I'm not moving: I'm also pretty confident I will win that 1v1 regardless of who you choose to kill (ffery will see my towniness the quickest, probably, but I doubt Cabd would fuck up that horribly and I have faith in Guyett staying the townblock 2.0 path), so it seems like we're at the end of the road now.

btw, since it's basically confirmed that the only possible player i can be scum with is notscience, i'm going to make myself innocent child status now and show that you clearly have no idea what you're talking about (which is going to be a kick in the balls for you if you think you can "win" a 1v1 with me

and i'm going to do this in two ways, and i'm sure you're going to call both wifom or inconclusive or whatever, but whatever way you spin the tinfoil here, i am very obvtown. the first way will be assessing my own play in regards to notscience (this is, i suppose, less reliable, since i am... somewhat notorious for trying to play against what's expected when i'm scum, but whatever, i'll put it all on the table) and the first way will be an analysis of what happened N2 and why that makes me the most obvtown motherfucker that ever obvtowned (and this *should* be very reliable to anyone who knows anything about my scum game, because even if i _do_ mix things up occasionally to manipulate people, what happened N2 would basically require me playing extremely sub-optimally for no purpose or gain JUST so i could bring it up in a situation like this, but more on this in a bit)

so first, let's look at my notscience interactions. i *think* it's rather obvious that the way i've treated notscience in this day phase alone is significantly different to how i'd ever treat a scum buddy when i know they're under pretty heavy suspicion given the remaining player list (and reading flow is... probably one of my biggest strengths as scum, so if you think i wouldn't have seen the notscience suspicion coming today then you're kidding yourself. i'm town and i saw it coming, there was no way i wouldn't have seen it coming as scum. so basically in order to think i'm scum with notscience, you'd have to think i'm playing completely contrary to how i would normally play as scum for... no gain other than using this argument, i guess? it's not even a strong argument, though, because the player list in this game knows i mix things up a bit as scum, sooooooooooooooo basically you would have to assume i'm scum doing something completely off the wall for... the sake of confusion and nothing else? i dunno. like the far more obvious answer is that i'm town, but whatever, this isn't a very strong point.

i think the biggest thing i've done re: notscience this game is point out what i thought was a town slip (and i still think it possibly is a town slip but i'm not as convinced as i was before). this, i think, is the strongest piece of evidence i'm not scum with notscience. like even if you think i mix things up a bit as scum, this is still pretty fucking strong evidence i'm not scum with him. i simply don't do that as scum (though i might in future just for shits and giggles, but whatever). in order to think this is a scum-scum interaction, you would have to assume that i was paying very, very close attention to everything my scum buddy was writing (or just coincidentally was paying attention to what was otherwise a rather ordinary post), was in a frame of mind where i was able to recognise and spin that as a town slip, and then thought it would be convincing enough that other people would agree with me or something (which didn't happen).

i mean, you can look at virtually everything else i've written about notscience in this game and *try* to spin some sort of scum motivation from it, but you're not going to find it, because it's not there. same with goodfather (and again, i could easily find similar interactions with goodfather that basically make no sense from the perspective i'm goodfather's scum buddy - like the way i treated his crumbing up to his claim, for instance).

what's more is that i'd expect you to recognise how dumb it is to think i'm scum here, but you don't, so you're either pretending to be oblivious here or you're scum. and all i'm trying to figure out now is whether you're bussing here or whether you're hoping someone hammers notscience for the win.

i'll go over why the N2 stuff basically makes me conftown in a bit coz this, i think, actually is pretty conclusive evidence i'm not scum. key here being why cabd was blocked, why no kill occurred, etc

[zMuffinMan]

ok

so

no kill happened N2, and night ended early that night, which means no kill happening was not because of a failed action submission

scum roleblocked cabd, scum also either intentionally no-killed or targeted cabd

these are the premises by which i'm going to essentially prove i'm town here

firstly, why would scum roleblock cabd? the only legitimate reason to roleblock cabd is if you think one of your own is going to be shot at. cabd floatde the idea of making the lynched player D2 (IK) a vengeful, and his list was bert, aronis, mafiassk - all of them were town, so that wasn't the reason cabd was blocked. so let's look at what else cabd was saying before the day ended, and oh, hey, look at what we have here. cabd floating the idea of vigging nacho. absolutely no mention of vigging notscience, absolutely no mention of vigging me, and at that point he was thinking that of {mafiassk, goodfather} mafiassk was the scum in that duo so he wasn't going to vig goodfather either. so why the fuck would a scum team consisting of {muffin, notscience, goodfather} ever fucking block cabd? the answer is they wouldn't. because that would be utterly stupid. the smarter approach that night would have been roleblocking mafiassk and killing cabd and letting cabd shoot freely at a list of players that (in a theoretical world where ns, goodfather and i are the scum team) would be an entirely town list - this woulda meant mylo D3 AND suspicion of mafiassk because of cabd dying for the people not following why this is the optimal play

now, like, anyone who knows anything about my scum play knows that, regardless of my day play sometimes being changed up for manipulation purposes, my night play is very organised, thorough, and planned with efficiency in mind. there is like no way i'd ever pass up an opportunity to get a D3 mylo in this game, especially when a theoretical team of goodfather, ns and me would have been in a fucking amazing position with D3 mylo given the game state at the time. so basically this alone should make me IC-level conftown, but let's look at what else happened that night.

no kill occurred, which means either scum shot at cabd and were blocked by mafiassk or they intentionally no-killed here. i'm just going to posit that i'm not stupid enough to shoot at cabd without shooting a claimed doc who was clearly going to protected the claimed vig. so the only real explanation for the lack of kill here, assuming me-scum, is a no kill gambit for some reason.

now, the only reason for a no kill gambit at that point, really, was to spread paranoia about mafiassk not being dead or something. or... i'm missing something entirely here and there's another possible explanation for it, i dunno. i'm just going to assume it was for paranoia-about-mafiassk purposes

if this were my goal with a no kill gambit, the dumbest thing i could do would be to, you know, shut down all avenues that would make this gambit work - which is exactly what i did D3, when i talked about why no kill occurred and speculated it was because scum wanted to spread paranoia about mafiassk. durr. i mean, not only is this suboptimal play in comparison to, say, shooting. the fucking doc or blocking the doc and shooting the vig, but like, there's no sensible explanation for my play here if the no kill gambit had any purpose. you could argue WIFOM here, but given the block on cabd and this, you'd have to be treading pretttttttttttttty fucking deep into tinfoil theory to think there's any merit to the argument

fact of the matter is that N2 makes absolutely no sense if i were scum with notscience

it does, on the other hand, make sense if, say, nacho is scum

go figure

[zMuffinMan]

like, even with my sparkly banner and shit, if you legitimately think there's even a remote possibility i'm scum here, you're either off your face high on something, in which case give me some of it, or you're really, really bad at mafia and cannot see the very, very obvious

or you're scum

whatever

tl;dr i'm about as obvtown as obvtown can be

[zMuffinMan]

though i am actually interested in seeing what nacho says about 3535

or anyone still doubting i'm town

coz

N2 makes me pretty fucking obvtown

WIFOM is literally the only possible thing you could say about it if you still think it's possible i'm scum but then you'd have to argue WHY i would do that over the optimal play

so

yeah

[zMuffinMan]

btw nachoooooooooooooo

if you were hoping to make people paranoid about me

this was probably the worst fucking game you could have chosen .to do it in

lol

[zMuffinMan]

oh nacho

[zMuffinMan]

if you think i'm scum, can you read and respond to 3535 in particular. don't care if you call 3534 wifom (even though it's really not), i just want to see what you have to say about 3535

preferably in the next 8 hours so i have something fun to read when i wake up

night

[zMuffinMan]

unexplained votes at the beginning of the day are probably not what he predicted

heh

i predicted it and i'm town

there's no way i wouldn't have predicted it as scum

like reading flow really is one of my better strengths as scum, i might fully explain this at some point in the future, though i think nati knows what i'm referring to here since i've told him about a personal scum tell of mine that involves reading flow (which i suppose is no longer applicable because i know about it now)

if you think i'm scum here, you're better off arguing it from the perspective that i knew it was coming and based my play around it

coz otherwise your argument is just dumb

Muffin points out a fake townslip. He says he would never do this, and his evidence: his word.

that is an oversimplification of what i actually said and misses the point entirely, but like i said, i do not care if you try to use wifom here, the main reason i'm obvtown is what i said in 3535

Why would scum roleblock Cabd? Fuck if I know. There's not a whole lot of reasons anyone would Roleblock him night 2 if you're protecting the scumteam, I guess. I don't think ScumNacho would be afraid of Cabd shooting him, considering I'm a far more competent player than Cabd's normal policy vigs and still unclaimed so losing PRcho would be a pretty shitty risk Cabd wouldn't take.

I don't really understand who the Day 2 no kill gambit doesn't apply to. I don't really see what purpose the thing served in the first place. Do you understand why it makes him town, Guyett? I don't.

lol

you
are
missing
the
point
entirely

read 3535 properly and try to refute the actual points there if you're going to insist i'm scum

i'll do a tl;dr version of it

optimal play for a scum team of {goodfather, ns, muffin} N2 - block mafiassk, kill cabd, let cabd shoot at town players (his list was basically you, aronis, bert or something - there was literally no mention of notscience, goodfather and i being potential vig candidates) - also had we blocked mafiassk and killed cabd and let cabd shoot from his list of town players, then it would have been mylo D3 and mafiassk woulda been under suspicion coz of cabd death
this didn't happen
instead scum blocked cabd and no kill gambit

so you must think i played suboptimally, for no reason (coz wifom doesn't cut it as a reason here)

[zMuffinMan]

i actually want to see what notscience says here

we could play hangman while we wait if you're looking for something to do

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

hint: relevant

[zMuffinMan]

votecount says VLA

[zMuffinMan]

and that post did NOT contain a guess

[zMuffinMan]

you are not very good at hangman, sir

[zMuffinMan]

_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

L-3: Z Q X

[zMuffinMan]

_ _ _ H _ _ _ _ _

L-1: Z Q X E T

[zMuffinMan]

_ _ _ H O _ _ _ _

L-1: Z Q X E T

[zMuffinMan]

_ A _ H O _ _ _ _

L-1: Z Q X E T

[zMuffinMan]

L-0: Z Q X E T I

the correct answer was nachoscum

[zMuffinMan]

it demonstrates that scum-you playing like this is not out of the question (since you can compile a strong case for you being town)

that would only be a reasonable explanation for the stuff about why i'm town for interactions with scum / potential scum

really, though, the crux of me being obvtown is that i can only be scum with notscience, and a {me, notscience, goodfather} team who blocked cabd and didn't perform a kill N2 makes... literally zero sense

coz

the scenario here is that optimal play was what i outlined

so either i am scum who... for no good reason, did the stuff N2, even though it was way, way suboptimal play in comparison to getting a D3 mylo and i did this, for ... some, i dunno, possible scenario like this happening where i could wifom............... or i'm town

3535 isn't a play based argument so being paranoid about it seems rather dumb

pedit: that

[zMuffinMan]

the most obvious answer to me is the answer i outlined in 3535 - that scum wanted to push the idea that ssk wasn't killed therefore ssk-scum

the N3 kill on bert further points to this being likely

if you're asking specifically why no kill over killing off random player X that isn't cabd (who they wanted to block over blocking ssk and taking out cabd) or ssk (who was a possible mislynch candidate) then i dunno, i can come up with possible explanations (like not wanting to disrupt the game state, even numbers, etc) but i don't know

[zMuffinMan]

the important part isn't so much why no kill occurred though, the important part is scum had 3 options:

- block ssk, kill cabd
- block cabd, kill ssk
- block cabd, kill someone else (or no kill)

and chose the third option

assessing why options one and two weren't chosen are key

because right now i know it makes no sense for you but it makes equally less sense for anyone else

this is wrong, though

for any team with nacho in it (who was a possible vig candidate given everything cabd said at the end of D2, despite nacho insisting otherwise), it makes perfect sense to block cabd. the no kill really isn't important except in assessing who was trying to push the idea that ssk could be scum because he's still alive. and in that sense, i make the least sense as scum because if my aim were to set up suspicion of mafiassk, i wouldn't go out of my way to talk about the lack of kill pointing to someone wanting to push suspicion onto mafiassk (like i did D3) unless you think this was a convoluted, completely unnecessary white knight attempt (which would again require suboptimal play from me)

also, since any team with nacho in it benefits from blocking cabd and (apart from cabd himself) i am the only one who absolutely cannot be scum with nacho, N2 makes no sense for me being scum but it makes plenty of sense for, say, a ns-nacho, guyett-nacho or selkies-nacho team

i'm tired so my thoughts are jumbled atm and i may be repeating obvious shit i've already gone over but whatever
sleep time

[zMuffinMan]

to be fair muffin it's not exactly like you defended ssk d3 is it

i don't remember him being a viable lynch at any point and if he was i probably did say i didn't want to lynch him

and i wasn't referring to whether or not i defended him, but the fact that i was talking about what the no kill meant and why i thought it was more likely than not a ploy to frame ssk. i think at one point i was paranoid about cabd being scum who was trying to not only frame ssk but also potentially act like he was conftown because he was the only person ssk would have protected and therefore no kill occurred because cabd was shot at.

i'm almost starting to think that we should just completely discount n2's no-kill because it points to absolutely nobody

tbh the no kill itself doesn't point to anyone in particular, but it does point away from me. that was the only reason i mentioned it.

anyway

actual sleep time now. night

[zMuffinMan]

i mean i guess it's also possible that cabd was shot at for some reason that doesn't really make sense (like assuming it was possible mafiassk wasn't going to protect him?) and i could be way off on what the no kill means - it's really not that interesting to me anyway so i don't care if it gets dropped from discussion altogether

*shrug*

actual actual sleep time. night

[zMuffinMan]

Muffin's strongest reasoning for being town is how Night 2 went down (Roleblock cabd + No Kill).
I don't think Night 2 + Night 3 really makes sense for anyone as scum.

If I was afraid of Cabd's vig shot, I wouldn't put him into the position to take another one (so either I kill your slot or Muffin's slot, then block SSK and kill Cabd the next day). Thus the idea that I was on the short list and that's why I roleblocked him is a shitty idea.

oh nacho

fucking lol

you

were

on the shortlist of vig targets N2, there is no debating this. want me to pull up every quote from cabd at the end of D2? there is plenty of motivation for you to roleblock cabd and absolutely no fucking motivation for a team of {me, notscience, goodfather} to block cabd when NOT BLOCKING CABD AND KILLING HIM INSTEAD WOULDA PUT THIS GAME IN D3 MYLO. THE ONLY REASON TO BLOCK CABD AND NOT DO THAT IS IF SCUM THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING TO BE SHOT AT.

either argue against this logic in your next post or admit you're fucking scum

[zMuffinMan]

like, until you can come up with a bullshit explanation for why a team that was never mentioned in any vig shortlist by cabd would have blocked him instead of letting him shoot freely and instead blocking mafiassk and killing cabd (which woulda put mafiassk in a fucking bad light when it hit mylo D3) you have no argument here

and you can't come up with a bullshit explanation for that

so you have no argument here

on the other hand, you were on the vig shortlist; you blocking cabd on the chance he shot at you makes perfect sense for any team involving you

[zMuffinMan]

COZ YOU WERE A FUCKING VIG CANDIDATE

HOLY SHIT

[zMuffinMan]

Spoiler:

One hour, 16 minutes. Nacho, claim, you scumfuck.

Oh, okay. Then who is unclaimed other than nachoscum?

<---totally willing to lynch nacho right now if he doesn't claim

Nacho and ffery fall into the "willing to murder to make their reads confirmed town" slot.

Willing to lynch nacho at this point. He clearly doesn't deem this game worth his time other than drive by one liners.

Half hour, nacho. Tick fucking tock.

ALL OF THESE ARE QUOTES FROM TEH END OF D2, CABD WAS FINE WITH LYNCHING YOU, THAT SUGGESTS HE WAS ALSO FINE WITH VIGGING YOU

GO FIND ANY SIMILAR POSTS ABOUT ANY OF ME, NOTSCIENCE, GOODFATHER

YOU CAN'T

THEY DON'T EXIST

SO

EITHER WE BLOCKED CABD FOR NO REASON WHEN HIS VIG POOL WAS EITHER IK'S LIST (THAT DIDN'T INCLUDE US) OR YOU, WHEN NOT BLOCKING CABD AND INSTEAD BLOCKING SSK AND KILLING HIM PUTS US AT D3 MYLO

BUT

THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN

SO

HOW THE FUCK DO YOU THINK THIS MAKES SENSE?

[zMuffinMan]

And then never kill Cabd even though I'm apparently terrified of him shooting me?

AFTER FUCKING N2 THIS CHANGED (SEE ALL CABD POSTS AT START OF D3 WHEN HE WAS PUSHING FFERY INSTEAD FOR INSTANCE, OR TEH FACT HE TOOK A SHOT AT ARONIS AND IT DIDN'T GO THROUGH CAUSING HIM TO BE PARANOID ABOUT ARONIS BEING SCUM BP

SO THIS ISN"T A LEGITIMATE ARGUMENT

AND YOU COULDN'T SHOOT HIM ANYWAY UNLESS YOU HAD A FULL ROLEBLOCKER

SO TEH QUESTION IS WHY YOU DIDN'T SHOOT MAFIASSK INSTEAD AND THE OBVIOUS ANSWER IS BECAUSE HE WAS A MISLYNCH CANDIDATE

THIS IS A QUOTE TOO

YOU DIDN'T UFCKING CLAIM D2 AND CABD ALSO SAID HE WAS WILLING TO SHOOT FROM TEH UNCLAIMED PLAYERS

GO FIGURE

[zMuffinMan]

I am literally going to policy vig from the unclaimed list unless somebody claims scum.

I am literally going to policy vig from the unclaimed list unless somebody claims scum.

I am literally going to policy vig from the unclaimed list unless somebody claims scum.

I am literally going to policy vig from the unclaimed list unless somebody claims scum.

I am literally going to policy vig from the unclaimed list unless somebody claims scum.

HEY NACHO CAN YOU SUMMARISE WHAT YOU THINK THIS QUOTE MEANS, POR FAVOR?

[zMuffinMan]

so you're going the full wifom route? i can come up with possible explanations for you not shooting at me or selkies (including not wanting to disrupt the gamestate, not wanting to shoot someone that would point back to you on top of roleblocking cabd which would point back to you especially if he shot you, etc) but i don't know for sure so what's the point in asking me this

you literally CANNOT come up with a good reason for any team with me, ns, goodfather blocking cabd and no killing

so

eat shit and die scum

[zMuffinMan]

it does point to any team involving you over other people because no one had motivation to block cabd unless they're a team that had someone on the vig shortlist

like

literally every other fucking team conceivable would have left cabd unblocked and brought it to D3 mylo

and no you're not a risk taker when you're scum

what the fuck?

like you guys were worried about mastin being a cop or something in imperishable night and we had to kill him instead of endgaming him like the original plan was meant to be

there's no fucking way you'd have taken a risk like letting cabd possibly shoot at you

[zMuffinMan]

also i am a conservative and safe player, but i'm not fucking stupid

even if cabd did change his mind during the night

go read literally everything he was saying D2

he was more suspicious of mafiassk than goodfather being scum in the protective claims so if a protective claim was shot at it wouldn't have been goodfather

he was far more suspicious of both other neighbours than me (see his eventual vig shot for example) and never expressed a desire to vig me (at least as long as i didn't go lurk mode at the end of D2, and i didn't, so?) and notscience was never mentioned as a vig candidate either

so

even if i am conservative as scum i would play the odds here, especially when there was a decent chance cabd was going to shoot you, which, you know, if i were scum, would benefit me a lot wouldn't it? and even if you weren't shot, D3 mylo with suspicion of ssk benefits me a lot soooooooooooooo yeah

[zMuffinMan]

/m115 in http://www.quicktopic.com/50/H/VbkajUNKB8K

gif brought it up, you agreed

[zMuffinMan]

Cabd doesn't get his shot off so he's not confirmed town, the guy Cabd shot is scummy, SSK is scummy for surviving (and blocking the obvious target doesn't make him look better)...

even apart from the fact that NONE OF THESE COME CLOSE TO TRUMPING A D3 MYLO AS REASONING

thanks for basically explaining where you were coming from with the no kill

like D3 mylo isn't an instant win but

given where suspicion was in the game at the time (you, aronis, selkies, and mafiassk woulda been prime candidates during mylo had it been a D3 mylo with cabd dying N2)

there is literally no explanation you can come up with here that makes sense

[zMuffinMan]

When did you become convinced your townslip on Notscience was wrong?

if i thought it was wrong i'd be voting him by now

i am simply arguing for my conftown status because the only player i can possibly be scum with is notscience

[zMuffinMan]

I'm pretty sure I'm okay shooting one threat. Why didn't I?

i can come up with possible explanations (i've already gone over a lot of them)

i don't know what the right answer is though

the important thing here is though you actually cannot come up with a good explanation for why N2 played out the way it did if i'm scum with notscience

Or have you just not figured that out yet.

this, but i made it clear at the start of today that i was considering selkies+nacho more likely than other pairs

there's also the possibility i'm wrong about notscience

the fact he doesn't seem to give a shit about this game wouldn't make me feel bad if he is lynched and it does mean game end - i'll be minorly sad that i wasn't able to argue my points strongly enough but this won't be a game i remember

[zMuffinMan]

also i'm not suggesting you never make kills that point back to you, but you were already under heavy suspicion (almost lynched D2), a possible vig candidate (as evidenced by every single post cabd made at the end of D2) and i don't think you'd want to risk shooting at a player that was going to point back at you on top of that IF cabd did claim to have shot you. coz he woulda been both suspicious of you being bulletproof and he woulda seen a kill that pointed back to you.

besides, killing selkies wasn't really a plausible option when they were still a viable mislynch candidate, and i clearly wasn't in the game enough for it to matter (especially since at least my read on goodfather was way off)

[zMuffinMan]

also you're focusing so much on the no kill not making sense, when i have stated multiple times i don't know what happened and i'm not trying to make sense of that (even if i can come up with possible explanations)

what you're failing to address is the important part of N2 (the ONLY important part, so stop making a big deal of the no kill occurring)

why was cabd blocked

instead of bringing it to D3 mylo

and you cannot come up with a reasonable explanation for this that involves me being scum with notscience

[zMuffinMan]

and yes, we staged this cabd, but what the fuck are you going to do about it? game is over, let us have our theatrics

[zMuffinMan]

So you don't care if Notscience is lynched and flips town

i would care about as much as notscience cares (which seems to be not at all at the moment)

[zMuffinMan]

Selkies wasn't a mislynch candidate

... we are not reading the same game

I kill you, people tell me the kill points back to me, I call you obviously town and a strong player and that reasoning never gets traction

it wouldn't HAVE to get traction, it would just be there, lingering, on top of the fact you were already under heavy suspicion and if cabd had tried to vig you N2 there would have been a lot of circumstantial evidence pointing back to you

like

i can come up with possible explanations

i don't know what is right though

so you arguing the wifom train here doesn't do anyone a lot of good

and what you can't do is come up with a plausible explanation for me blocking cabd over letting the game go to D3 mylo which, with the game state as it was, woulda favoured a me, ns, goodfather team

sooooooooooooooooooooooo

yeah

[zMuffinMan]

Why don't you think the no kill is a big deal of Cabd getting roleblocked is a big deal?

stop playing dumb

there are multiple possible explanations for the no kill happening and all of them are soaked in wifom

there is NO good reason to block cabd if his vig list was all town players

[zMuffinMan]

like that is fucking basic theory with a fucking vig

you do not block a fucking vig

if they are going to be shooting town

every single player knows this

[zMuffinMan]

You can't come up with a plausible explanation for why anyone would no kill ever

i can, though, and i have multiple times

even numbers
not wanting to interrupt the game state
shooting at cabd on the off chance mafiassk wasn't going to be protecting him
pure WIFOM
other possible explanations i'm not thinking of

but hey ONCE AGAIN this isn't important to figure out because it doesn't point back to anyone in particular

[zMuffinMan]

Whatever townie he shoots is pretty much dead, so it isn't really that much of a risk to block him instead of letting him shoot

NO

NACHO

THIS ISN'T AN EXPLANATION

BECAUSE

OPTIMAL PLAY WAS LETTING CABD SHOOT AND BRINGING GAME TO D3 MYLO

IF HIS VIG LIST WAS ALL TOWN

STOP PLAYING FUCKING DUMB

[zMuffinMan]

And you played suboptimally so you could push this shit angle if your partners went down in burning flames.

yes, and now it comes out, the only possible explanation you can push

that instead of bringing it to an almost guaranteed win at D3 mylo given where suspicions were at that point and the fact cabd dying woulda put more suspicion on ssk

you think a plausible explanation is that i predicted some weird shit going down and made a VERY suboptimal play on the off chance it happened to play out like i suspected

yeah

no

you know how i know you're scum, nacho? you would have figured out by now how fucking obvtown i am if you were town

[zMuffinMan]

like i even covered this in 3535

because it really is the only angle you can push

and it's hilariously stupid

you're so obvscum

[zMuffinMan]

Because not only can you say "I never would have roleblocked Cabd", but you can also truly mislynch SSK as a result

well, yes, i also covered this in 3535

if my aim was to push a mislynch on mafiassk it makes no sense for me to talk about what the no kill means D3 and express suspicion that the no kill was designed to make us paranoid of mafiassk

but more to the point, THIS DOESN'T EXPLAIN WHY I WOULDN'T TAKE IT TO D3 MYLO

like

literally

what you're saying is

i could have brought it to D3 mylo in a situation where none of the scum team was really suspected

but i didn't coz LOL i could, if everything played out a certain way, push some angle where i suggest i wouldn't have blocked cabd (which doesn't work unless all his vig candidates are dead except one, so i woulda had to predict that, too)

holy shit

you

are

so


obv

scum

[zMuffinMan]

no, you fucking didn't

VOTE: NACHO

WITH THE FURY OF A THOUSAND SUNS

i will literally not be moving this vote today

i don't even care if notscience happens to be scum

and i don't even care if you're just having the derpiest fucking town game of your life and you're too dumb to see how fucking wrong you are

you need to die

You could push that angle as long as at least (1) of his vig candidates was still alive, no?

no i fucking couldn't unless it's impossible for me to be scum with anyone in his vig list

[zMuffinMan]

like if it weren't impossible for me to be scum with you, i couldn't push this angle. if, say, notscience was in his vig list and not you, i couldn't push this angle

you're not this fucking dumb

[zMuffinMan]

also his vig candidates were basically you, bert, aronis, mafiassk (if he was including IK's list and was serious about the vengeful thing) so

no, even if i am utterly fucking amazing as scum (and i think i'm way overrated so this isn't the case) there's no way i'd make very suboptimal actions on the OFF CHANCE it would benefit me in some future scenario that wouldn't even need to happen if i made the optimal play

my scum play is all about efficiency with night actions

anyone who knows anything about my scum play knows this

you should know this

that's why you're not town

[zMuffinMan]

any team with someone in his vig list

[zMuffinMan]

and mafiassk IF he was serious about IK's vengeful list

[zMuffinMan]

let's play a little exercise nacho

D3 mylo where no one in the scum team of {ns, muffin, goodfather} is highly suspected

or long, laborious process drawn out for no reason on the off chance i could MAYBE use it to semi-confirm myself IF everything played out according to plan even though it was completely unnecessary in comparison to the optimal play N2 (making it D3 mylo)

which do you think makes sense here?

[zMuffinMan]

or to put it simply,

virtually guaranteed win with D3 mylo and gamestate

or

POSSIBLE win after long drawn out process that required certain people dying AND me confirming i'm not scum with anyone in cabd's vig list (which required you voting someone today and me not hammering as well, another thing i'd have had to predict N2) ?

[zMuffinMan]

I think the scumteam of {anyone, NS, godfather} is more benefited by going to D3 mylo, except for me if I'm afraid I'll get shot and think I will actually get away from the lynch the next day, which is still slightly reaching, but hey

yes

and also any team of {X, you, goodfather} does not benefit from risking you being shot

and i'm the only one (apart from cabd) who cannot be scum with you

we're reaching a breakthrough here

[zMuffinMan]

also i'm not selling you anything

i think you're scum (in case it wasn't clear)

i am making what should be obvious to everyone very, very clear

[zMuffinMan]

if you were somehow town, that is what it would mean

[zMuffinMan]

though you're still wrong because a team of {ns, goodfather, muffn} would have been in the BEST position D3 given suspicions floating at the time

[zMuffinMan]

so even if you were somehow town, you're ignoring the fact that there is LITERALLY no reason for that scum team to not bring it to D3 mylo

[zMuffinMan]

unless you're still suggesting that i could predict all but one of cabd's vig list dying and know that i would be confirmed to not be scum with that person

and that i did this for absolutely no reason

when the alternative was bringing game to d3 mylo and basically winning then and there with no complications

even if you were somehow town, you'd realise how fucking dumb this is and how i'm basically conftown here

@cabd

i haven't seen it yet

[zMuffinMan]

Why is there a reason for any other scumteam not to bring it to D3 MyLo?

there isn't

but the question shouldn't be "is there a reason?" but whether other scum players think in a logical and efficient way like i do

coz you could make an argument for, say, guyett being a derpfuck and not thinking logically about it

but you cannot make the same argument for me

[zMuffinMan]

also no other scum team would have benefited from a D3 mylo in the same way as a {ns, muffin, goodfather} team because no other team was basically beyond suspicion

so it makes even LESS sense to assume that team than any other

[zMuffinMan]

but there _has_ to be a reason

because it was an active choice

and there is quite literally no reason to assume that any scum team involving me+ns would ever do that

because that's just not how i play as scum

so instead you have to push bullshit about how you're town and you see it as meaningless because it doesn't make sense from your pov and whatnot

i understand that

but you're not thinking about it properly and how it basically makes me conftown

because you're scum

[zMuffinMan]

And your scumteam wouldn't benefit any more than any others

well, firstly, that's not true (because selkies was under suspicion, so was guyett's slot to some extent given katsuki's play) but the same cannot be said about notscience or me, so a D3 mylo would have benefited any non-you team but it wouldn't have been a practically guaranteed win for any non-you team - so yes, it does benefit the hypothetical team you're suggesting more than any other team

secondly, it's not about who it benefits but why it happened, and you know if i were scum things wouldn't have played out the way they did (literally, go through every scum game i've ever played and try to find one example of me suggesting suboptimal night play for WIFOM purposes - you can't). not everyone plays a logical scum game like me, not everyone sees the things happening and thinks about efficiency like me. and the reason i brought it up is because THIS, more than anything else, is what makes me near conftown

and you'd know this if you were thinking and you were town

but you're not because you simply have no other choice at this point

[zMuffinMan]

i could point to everything i've done and say it's town but i don't see the point - due to the nature of this game, i'm sure you could come up with counter-arguments for why i could do it all as scum. and seeing as you don't actually have legitimate reasons for thinking i'm scum, i think the burden of proof is on you to show it hasn't been my town game

the strongest reason for me being town, which can't be argued away with wifom, is that i make no sense as scum given N2 and how i play as scum (coz even if you're suggesting i change things up sometimes as scum, i still don't make suboptimal night plays - ever - sometimes what is or isn't optimal may be debatable, but in this game it isn't, so it's extremely strong evidence for why i'm basically conftown)

[zMuffinMan]

it seems unreasonable to explain anything after N2 since after that point the game was practically won had we done what i would have done as scum

like, i dunno? bert isn't someone i woulda killed, i guess? the entire neighbourhood was slightly suspicious of him to some extent - the mafiassk kill was fairly obvious

[zMuffinMan]

actually, really, anyone who knows my recent history with bert should know bert is someone i wouldn't kill as scum unless i absolutely had to

1523, titans and hydra-game are prime examples of why i would treat him like PV - never ever waste a night kill on him unless he's conftown and needs to die

[zMuffinMan]

like ideal scenario for the only scum team i could possibly be a part of N2 is block mafiassk, shoot you, let you shoot at a pool of town players

then D3 mylo comes about, nacho and selkies still under suspicion, mafiassk under more suspicion because of your death, guyett and bert were meh - bert was arguably the only one i wouldn't have been able to push

if i were scum i woulda seen this N2 and this game would probably have been over a month ago

zmuffin, If you are town, then I'll be making Cyrillic notes in indigo ink about your NK thought process

my thought processes when i'm scum are very obvious to anyone who reads my scum QTs - i don't hide them

regardless of what i do with day play, i don't fuck around with night actions if there is an optimal play (i think death's diner QT would be a good example of this since the night kills there were all aimed at efficiency, but really you can read any scum QT of mine)

[zMuffinMan]

i mean, it's VERY rarely that i can point to night actions and show that certain things occurring in a certain way were the only sensible option, so i don't really get to argue this angle much

this game is a special exception because you can't explain it away with simple WIFOM (which IS something i would do as scum, but not in the convoluted way it would have had to have happened this game)

[zMuffinMan]

btw, now that i've basically gone into this much detail about it, i am going to have to change it up at some point just for shits and giggles (and i'll probably never be able to use this argument again because it is something i would change up as scum just to throw you off), so i don't think taking notes is going to help you

[zMuffinMan]

nacho, read teh fucking QT

i need you to unvote/revote so i can ACCIDENTAL HAMMER

[zMuffinMan]

that

[zMuffinMan]

whole bunch of bullshit

interaction-hunting like that is the weakest form of scum hunting because it not only assumes you have some idea of how he treats his scum partners, but it's entirely possible to twist things any which way you want.

for example, even you you acknowledge how unlikely it is that a scum player would talk about both his partners in the same way and call them both null-leaning-town, you still call it "possible" because you need to. who he did or didn't vote was probably highly dependent on what were viable wagons (i was NEVER a viable wagon after the very first few pages of the game and notscience was never a viable wagon at any stage of the game iirc - so pointing out that he didn't vote us is like... durrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr... but you know this, and you probably don't care). it's also kinda dumb that you're like, "oh, he voted me, that makes me town!"

[zMuffinMan]

also stuff like this is fucking hilarious

Nacho/NS/Goodfather team means that Goodfather put both of his partners in the "and other lurkers slot".

Having both partners in null leaning town is odd, but not unheard of

which, i guess, is a perfect example of twisting things in a way that suits your needs

i guess you've given up on trying to call me scum by play and now you're going with the durrrrrrrrr interactions route

[zMuffinMan]

I don't really expect new scum to put both of their partners, even if both partners are lurking.

you

need

to say that, but this is complete bullshit. scum (newbie or not) will feel the need to justify their reads in some way, shape or form, so of course they are going to put their partners as "lurkers" if their partners are... lurking. lurking is such a common reason that it isn't worth really pushing but it's enough that he thinks he could be distancing. and, now that i'm looking back at it, what is particularly interesting about the reads list in which he calls both you and ns's slot lurkers is that he specifically names both of you and then adds "and other lurkers".

the other end of the spectrum is you're suggesting that newbie scum wouldn't be self-conscious and would put both his partners in the same pile with similar reasoning that isn't related to something so general like "lurking"

Interactions has ended up being pretty fucking fruitful so far

if you think so, good luck with it

i think you can struggle as much as you want, but anyone who's actually paying attention knows i'm obvtown here (and if you really were town, you'd have figured this out by now, too)

[zMuffinMan]

Interactions hunting is also an interesting point of reference for case-building because it's something you have minimal control over as scum

also this is wrong

in a game where it's confirmed scum have day talk, scum have all the control in the world over it

on the other hand, town have no control over how scum choose to interact with them

but you already knew this, and i understand you have no choice here but to spin whatever bullshit you can find since your options are so limited, so carry on i guess`

[zMuffinMan]

hey now i'm going back over goodfather's ISO

i just remembered, he asked whether it was a neighbourhood or whether one of us was a neighbouriser. i assume you think this was supposed to be WIFOM or distancing or some shit?

[zMuffinMan]

oh wait

[zMuffinMan]

oh never mind, i was ruling out notscience as scum if anyone in my neighbourhood was scum at some point in the game, but that was because notscience was calling both IK and aronis scum, but i suppose you could also suggest that was him playing some WIFOM game or whatever

though, really, if you were thinking critically about it, that is a point against him knowing about the neighbourhood

[zMuffinMan]

Spoiler:

my understanding of neighborhoods is that not all members necessarily have the same affiliation.

So can the three of you really be sure of each others affiliation? I doubt that you would have outed yourselves if you were the scum team, so it is likely that 1 or more are town, but there is also no guarantee that you are all town. Is this understanding of neighborhoods correct @natirasha??

last question about the neighborhood, is one of you a neighborizer?

like did you all start the game knowing you were in a neighborhood, or was it something that you were notified about after the game had started??

last question about the neighborhood, is one of you a neighborizer?

like did you all start the game knowing you were in a neighborhood, or was it something that you were notified about after the game had started??

How would this be alignment indicative at all?

it is not necessarily alignment indicative, but it might make more sense of muffins early day phase play.

I am still a bit thrown by his initial post where he seemingly arbitrarily decided a few reads.

He didn't name either of the members of his neighborhood

katsuki is town, foutrouble is town, mafiassk is maybe town, selkies is scum

Plus it would help analyze early town reads from the three of them. What if they made reads before they were all invited to the neighborhood? and what if those reads changed after talking in the qt?

Knowing the sequence of events will help when analyzing early day phase posting. That seems pretty straightforward to me. I also want to have a better understanding of the game mechanics. i have not come across neighborhoods firsthand before, and asking questions is the best way for me to learn how it works

i mean i suppose you could argue that i told him to say this (though that would completely destroy your theory about scum not controlling interactions so i suppose this isn't an option for you)? or that he was trying to wifom or something? even though all signs point to the obvious; that he didn't know about the neighbourhood and was trying to extract more information

[zMuffinMan]

l o l

[zMuffinMan]

so continuing with where i was before nati rudely closed the thread on me

Bert really wasn't a viable wagon of the game either: and yet, he ended up strongly town reading him and buddying up to him like crazy (similar way to how Notscience treated Bert). In the case of you and Notscience, you were null leaning townreads that he never understood, never attempted to understand, never voted.

a quick ctrl+F of his ISO shows this is wrong. considering at one point he quite literally calls me one of his strongest town reads and certainly the strongest in the neighbourhood, that sounds like the very definition of buddying up to me like crazy, no?

like, the reason interaction-hunting like this is bullshit is that if he wasn't super strong buddying me, then omg that's how scum interact. now that i've pointed out you're actually wrong about this, you're going to turn around and say, omg super strong town read, that's how scum interact!

even though it'll be a completely contradictory stance, you're not looking to assess things critically, you're looking for stuff to fit a conclusion

I really wasn't a viable wagon at that point either

in other words, you weren't going to be lynched and he voted you. how is that not the classic definition of distancing?

[zMuffinMan]

Cabd after we lynch scum-aronis can we lynch the everliving fuck out of IdiotKing

no

but remind me to come back to this at a later stage and talk about what i think this means if any of you, aronis or idiotking ever flip scum

So, after we lynch Aronis and he flips scum?

okay.

also, this specifically is what i was talking about at the end of yesterday with notscience also being totally unaware of the neighbourhood

[zMuffinMan]

y

[zMuffinMan]

L A L

[zMuffinMan]

oh i just realised nati made deadline for this day phase 7 days

i still think nacho is more likely scum than anyone else (though part of this is me just wanting one of my reads this game to not be complete shit)

but i would like it very much if nacho got to L-1 without my vote just so i can see what nacho does when he realises the corner he's backed himself into and tries to come up with some reasoning to call someone else scum

[zMuffinMan]

I dont know who to trust here

i mean, sure, you could ignore the mountains of evidence suggesting i'm town, from scum's reactions to my neighbourhood and the people in it both before and after the reveal, to the fact that N2 makes no sense if i were scum, to the fact that all of my play practically screams town. i guess you can do that. that seems like it makes sense.

is nacho's approach of refusing to actually analyse any of this in favour of doing... nothing outside of bringing up a few quotes from goodfather and saying i make sense as scum based on them convincing to you?

[zMuffinMan]

tbh that post makes me look more town than you. but it doesn't make you look town at all, so that's not saying much

[zMuffinMan]

NACHO

YOU KNOW WHAT TIME IT IS?

BATTLE TIME?

[zMuffinMan]

you can trust me, i'm town

[zMuffinMan]

cross my heart

[zMuffinMan]

wouldn't lie about something like this, especially not at mylo

honestly

[zMuffinMan]

i mean, you can talk about why you don't think i'm town if you want?

and i'll get some popcorn and have a good laugh

that sounds fun, but it won't get us anywhere, so imo, you're better off just believing i'm town

especially since you don't want to put any effort into figuring things out

[zMuffinMan]

super awesome

[zMuffinMan]

since numbnuts is gonna be V/LA for the entire day phase or something, and neither selkies or nacho looks like they're gonna do anything any time soon,

either decide this via rap battle today or vote no lynch

[zMuffinMan]

it takes me like 10-15 minutes to read 157 pages, it shouldn't take you this long

[zMuffinMan]

what are you actually reading? the whole game?

[zMuffinMan]

dw

i'll kill you tonight so you won't get to post any of it

i'm sure you can talk about it tomorrow if we no lynch

[zMuffinMan]

hey

hey

nacho

don't make promises on my behalf

[zMuffinMan]

Vote: no lynch

[zMuffinMan]

<24 hours, say whatever you want to say or vote no lynch now

or we can put this game in the hands of the dice

20% chance of hitting scum, 20% of no lynching

[zMuffinMan]

*shrug*

fuck it, nobody gives a shit

random lynch it is, then

UNVOTE

fitting way to probably end this game, given how this last day phase has played out

[zMuffinMan]

Original Roll String: 1d5

1 5-Sided Dice: (3) = 3

[zMuffinMan]

who's 3?

[zMuffinMan]

i'm going to sleep, assuming it's not 2 to no lynch, let selkies post whatever the fuck they've been wanting to post or not post whatever the fuck they've been not wanting to post or i don't know whatever fuck it before no lynching

[zMuffinMan]

nacho

i want you to answer honestly

why didn't you kill anyone last night?

[zMuffinMan]

has nacho even been on MS since the end of yesterday?

[zMuffinMan]

. . . . .

[zMuffinMan]

it's a normal game, how the fuck would there be a game mechanism that causes a no kill?

but 3932 is the _least_ retarded of that string of posts, so that says something

[zMuffinMan]

why would i bother explaining it when i don't know why it happened

one possible explanation is nacho wasn't around during the night phase (which would explain why it was dragged out for the full 48 hours when nati asked for a quick night phase)

another possible explanation is it was designed for apathy purposes (would have been something i considered were i scum, though i more likely would have just shot someone - especially since nati woulda been getting pissed off at me in our QT were i scum intentionally no killing after letting it drag 48 hours)

another possible explanation is that nacho wants a safety net because he wasn't sure how you were going to vote, but he knew guyett thought he was scum and didn't want to make another obvious shot that could be pointed back to

another possible explanation is nacho is actually town and one of you and guyett is too chickenshit to make a kill for whatever reason

or something i'm not thinking of and don't care about

because how the fuck is it useful in anyway to dwell on this?

[zMuffinMan]

those are your best selling points?

if you were thinking rationally, you'd realise the first point is an opinion that's alignment-indepedent - if i were actually scum, there'd be no reason for me to make up something like that if i wouldn't also think it as town

the second point seems blatantly wrong, and ignores the fact that goodfather was aware enough of what a neighbourhood was to ask if one of us was a neighbouriser - a logical inference here would be that he looked it up on the wiki - it's also rather funny that you're ignoring the points where both goodfather and notscience were totally unaware of the existence of said neighbourhood up until the point it was revealed by me

the third point seems like a very poor meta point that isn't even descriptive of what my actual play has been like in this game?

[zMuffinMan]

i mean,

both flipped scum having weird interactions with me re:neighbourhood is actually a pretty strong sign i'm town, or feel free to go over the quotes i brought up and argue otherwise

N2 still makes no sense for a scenario in which i'm scum

and, as much as this is a wifom argument, all of my interactions with flipped scum are totally unlike how i'd play it were i scum. not to mention i'm a shining beacon of fucking towniness to anyone who actually reads my ISO. omg, so town, it's blinding