Mini 1585: Muskoka Murder Mystery - Game Over

[evilpacman18]

Not really much posting to do, the miller claim bores me and RVS feels strangely not over and I tend to avoid it

[evilpacman18]

Lol I was what 20 seconds late?

[evilpacman18]

Oh a little more. Sat on the reply screen for a while...
I actually didn't like that all random.org read list someone posted.

[evilpacman18]

Well, thoughts on the Konowa? Like you said, the RVS seemed not over, and yet I have 4 votes on me. At least one of them are scum.

I think he's town I guess because I agree with him about BroodkingEXE, who I think could be scum. About you idk but I'd be hard pressed to find scum on your wagon, none of the votes ping on my scumdar except don_johnson's if I look at it a certain way.

[evilpacman18]

But #88 makes me think you are in way over your head.

This occurred to me too

[evilpacman18]

for you people concerned with meta, I just won a scum game

[evilpacman18]

[evilpacman18]

so what you're saying is you're not really doing anything with your life

[evilpacman18]

disregard it. it's null.

what's going to magically happen on days 3 or 4 that's going to help you sort it?

there's a lot of possibilities

cop claim or flip
NK or vig shot
we could lynch a godfather

etc.

[evilpacman18]

jeez, i have to go into MD mode?

disregard it. it's null.

what's going to magically happen on days 3 or 4 that's going to help you sort it?

there's a lot of possibilities

cop claim or flip
NK or vig shot
we could lynch a godfather

etc.

1) cop doesn't confirm miller's existence
2) vig the miller claim on policy? ok.... doesn't help us sort the miller claim
3) godfather doesn't confirm miller's existence either

what's your point EPM?

that it makes sense to wait and see if any of a number of possible things that could happen that would make the miller claim more believable actually do happen.

[evilpacman18]

that's because half the playerlist hasn't even addressed it yet

noooope you're scum

[evilpacman18]

yes

[evilpacman18]

don't like rap music?

[evilpacman18]

my content is shitty in this game.
why am I scum

[evilpacman18]

there you go again shutting down important and good town questions

[evilpacman18]

I'm not interested in voting Chevre

[evilpacman18]

this man understands me

[evilpacman18]

I like you.
I hope you won't take this personally.

Anti's superiority complex atm is scum ego probably. He's probably bussing someone too. my guess is DJ. I know because I get like that as scum too. Get carried away being in a position where you're just fucking people and it's super fun.

I guess I'll catch up now though.

[evilpacman18]

but really though, if I can pop in, read a couple of your posts and tell you're scum without even being caught up on the whole game, that just makes me more sure that you pulled scum this time. It has nothing to do with me projecting my meta onto you, you just have that red-in-my-inbox mentality thing going on bruh

[evilpacman18]

I'm down to 1v1 though, maybe that'll be the extra push to start trying

[evilpacman18]

a town bloc would also help so I'd be cool with that.

[evilpacman18]

yes that is the classical argument for why town blocs are scummy, thank you.

[evilpacman18]

However, strong town reads from either alignment tend to be reasonably reliable.

[evilpacman18]

This is a textbook opportunistic wagon, what surprises me is that Guyett is on it when he was against another similar wagon earlier, I forget who. Two scum minimum and I'm guessing Anti and either Guyett or Misaka. They should know better. Reinoe and Konowa should just be ashamed.

[evilpacman18]

Full disclosure, I never play two games at a time and I am right now because it just worked out that way and I need to dedicate some time to this but I'll probably be skimming for another RL day or two.

Actually let's just

Mod, I'm V/LA until Tuesday night

[evilpacman18]

sorry I didn't get back in time. At least this gives me time to read up.

[evilpacman18]

reread and short notes FINALLY incoming.

[evilpacman18]

from like middle of page 6 because this is the first thing that pinged:

Guyett looks scummy in response to reinoe saying he is an RVS vote leftover. Especially with reinoe's tone in that post, it's pretty forced to read him as scum from it. Like that's clear anti-town but not scum play and Guyett would have picked up on that I think.
Anti picking up on that is comforting. so is 144
I don't think reinoe is scum after his turn around on how Konowa should be responded to... I think scum would tunnel that town read. And given Chevre interactions with reinoe I think he's pretty town.
don_johnson, I had a scum read on him at some point. I think I'm coming back to that.
moving back towards town on Guy around 207
Boonskiies is super looking out for Chevre in 321, doesn't seem like he would've been concerned about anyone else like that? associative tell?
huh about 326... I guess context is important. Sorry Anti.
I can't think of a better word for dj's posts than flaccid and he's never seemed that way to me in the past

ok that's half. the other half soon.

[evilpacman18]

someone tell me if we're still feeling the same as p.15 on dj scum

[evilpacman18]

oh

[evilpacman18]

good I was right

[evilpacman18]

what part of that seems like "trying to play off not knowing" to you without you having to project some intent that's nowhere to be found in the posts onto me?

[evilpacman18]

I think you just don't get the concept of catch up posting. If I suddenly just appeared and had reads everyone would have to be asking me a bazillion questions about how I came to my conclusions. Catch up posting, at least the way I intend it, just covers some essential read-related thoughts that I've had so that if let's say I finish my read and vote DJ, there's some chronological trail in my short notes that leads to that being an understandable conclusion for me. It's essentially short nuggets of posts that I would have elaborated more on probably if I was actually present at the time the posts I'm reading were more relevant.

Also, you were never a supporter on the lynching of Chevre and although I was hesitant at first, I still leaned on the idea that Chevre was scum. You though never supported it. So I call scum.

this isn't even worth a response.

[evilpacman18]

Annnnnn is town, dudes

[evilpacman18]

Well... Maybe not
Get back to you on that

[evilpacman18]

I think you just don't get the concept of catch up posting. If I suddenly just appeared and had reads everyone would have to be asking me a bazillion questions about how I came to my conclusions. Catch up posting, at least the way I intend it, just covers some essential read-related thoughts that I've had so that if let's say I finish my read and vote DJ, there's some chronological trail in my short notes that leads to that being an understandable conclusion for me. It's essentially short nuggets of posts that I would have elaborated more on probably if I was actually present at the time the posts I'm reading were more relevant.

That may explain some of it, but you still haven't really answered on how you missed that Reinoe was dead.

So what? Does it make sense that I would have forgotten that if I was involved in killing him?

[evilpacman18]

Broodking is a good vote if dj is town

[evilpacman18]

I am thinking more and more that Boonskiies is scum. I can sniff out noob town a mile away but this isn't that, 416 and especially 421 are somehow scummy to me even thiugh they're just promises to get back to the game. They reek of appeasement which is totally a noob scum thing.

[evilpacman18]

Well I just said what Chevre said a few pages after where I was reading soooo nvm?

[evilpacman18]

Sorry, I slacked and took a day off.

Post 434: Aneninen, I just pick whatever I feel needs responding to. Do you suggest something else? I ask seriously, because my education of how to play here has been rough even though I've been here many years.

Post 436: Antihero, I think you can "unintentionally" AtE. the parenthetical reference near the end of this post, 436, for example. You obviously wanted us to be reminded of your emotional crackage and take that into account when judging you. I don't think AtE is scummy because any player is liable to get emotionally invested and their feelings hurt, but I'm confused as to why you've put yourself in such a conspicuous role of leadership if you're so susceptible to breaking down. Maybe it's more psychological than it's worth getting into for the purposes of this game.

Posts 425, 438, and 470 from Aneninen; the emotion feels forced to me. Like he's scum and everyone around him is cracking and he's trying to insert himself into a mediator's position.

Post 447: Antihero's "1v1" comment is super perplexing, considering that no one is voting him, or barely suspecting him at all? But if he's scum it'd have to be some bizarre bussing situation where once the "1v1" leads to epm's lynch he'll be vindicated in the eyes of town--but he's seen as pretty town by so many already?

Unvote, vote Boonskiies

That reinoe vote, while I'm not entirely discrediting it, feels wrong. Meanwhile, I was looking through the players, because it feels like 75% have fallen victim to the noise of the other 25%, but Boonskiies' ISO is incredibly scummy.

A: Post 64 has a "why me fry me" which is especially unnecessary given that he later acknowledges in 87 that this wagon was little to worry about, and uses this to suspect Konowa
B: Post 201 is blatant newb card
C: Post 318 and 321, joins my wagon while adding no additional reasoning, then in 321 seems to get nervous about me getting quickwagon-lynched
D: Post 416, 421, 460, which are three promises to contribute in a row.

It feels like Boonskiies is newbie scum to me.

Sorry bout my LA guys, lots of work came up, but I'm back now and am reading up. I quite honestly don't think that he is scum as of now. I'll agree that he hasn't done shit in this game, but it feels too much like a townie who is trying to stay with the game rather then a scum trying to lurk to victory.

Of interest

[evilpacman18]

Okay this is my case against Reinoe.

Spoiler:

He starts off by saying that we should lynch the miller claim which he defends in posts
164
167
169
187
193
Then he votes in194

Then further supports it in posts 196, 205, 208. 210, and 214.

Then in229, he suddenly makes a claim that’s scummy because he brings attention away from himself and the fact that he’s been claiming to lynch the miller half the time and tries to bring the idea of focusing on the other people he’s convince to get on his wagon.

242
Feels to me like he’s getting put in a corner and he’s trying to slip out of it


His posts against Guyett feel like he’s desperately trying to defend himself and have a sense of panick imo.

After running more up the miller in claim in 433 he randomly switched against EPM without much evidence on why.

On top of that his arguments on the wagon and using meta as his defense was just horrible.
And with him randomly joining sides with the person he’s been targeting the entire day so far, it just seems suspicious and scummy.

Again, overall I feel imo that Reinoe is being manipulative, panicky, and is riding an easy argument through the first day whilc trying to switch sides without much explanation whenever it's convenient for him.

That case is terrible and I'll pick it apart tomorrow because formatting on a phone is a pain in the butt.

Chaoslord is probably scum.

If it's terrible it's because it is my first time really trying to present a full case and my wording my not be the best. Also, if I need to claim to make you know I'm not scum I will. I don't want to just because I think it's better for me to keep my role hidden for now but I will if need be

lol

[evilpacman18]

(I'm finishing the catch up )

FG is scum btw

[evilpacman18]

[epm/fakegod] + [anenien/broodking]

vote: Misaka

[evilpacman18]

oops that wasn't supposed to be quoted but I was gonna say that post seems spot on to me.

[evilpacman18]

yo 689-692 are slimy as shit

[evilpacman18]

dj: where was it supposed to become clear to me that you are not scum?

[evilpacman18]

I do think Annnnn is town

[evilpacman18]

has some shitty reasoning in some places ("me and Misaka aren't scum together, we hardly even talk to each other") which is probably why the scum reads but I still think he's town.

[evilpacman18]

I'm townreading all of us though. If anyone not Bert but he doesn't seem opportunistic to me. Second vote with a long gap after the first

[evilpacman18]

I suppose it depends on your read on me from your PoV

[evilpacman18]

Anti please be done fucking around

[evilpacman18]

Chaoslord will probably work itself out.
For me, will it make you feel better if I explain my vote on him more?

[evilpacman18]

*shrug*

[evilpacman18]

I thought I'd seen that before...

[evilpacman18]

Don where was I supposed to see you are town

[evilpacman18]

Hmmm well

[evilpacman18]

This is a solid wagon. I still think we hit right

[evilpacman18]

One of Konowa or chaos has to be scum I think =\

[evilpacman18]

It would be hilarious if Anti is scum cuz I called that without reading but I'd prefer this first

vote: Konowa

[evilpacman18]

There's not so much a case against Konowa as much as just condemning PoE. We have a JK and a tracker and I don't believe there would be a useless miller in the setup.

[evilpacman18]

Konowa's gone into full defense mode

[evilpacman18]

Oh My Gods. Sometimes I'm so "slow-minded".
We should not have asked why Chaoslord tracked Reinoe and me. We should have asked why he didn't track Konowa.

Because if CL is telling the truth then he can be pretty sure Konowa is scum without having to use a track on him

[evilpacman18]

Cheery Dog:
Scum tracker? Scum miller? No way.
And I just don't think chaos has the gall to fake claim.

[evilpacman18]

this new claim is more reason to lynch Konowa isn't it?

[evilpacman18]

I believe Bert for now, I still think it's between chaos and Konowa, it is true that Chaos' scumteam won a game where his partner fakeclaimed D1 but that game was broken. Still I could see chaos trying the same gambit, it just would surprise me that he picked Tracker to claim since he's still brand new.
I SUPPOSE it's within the realm of reason that there could be a miller and no cop but I also REEEEEALLY doubt it cuz that would be near-bastard modding and the claim would have probably allowed Konowa to sail through the game if a cop did turn out to be present. Unfortunate that it turned out to be a tracker, really.

[evilpacman18]

I think chaos is too new to catch any connections between trackers and millers, might not even have known what a miller is.

[evilpacman18]

I think chaos is too new to catch any connections between trackers and millers, might not even have known what a miller is.

That is possible.
But, I think we've been talking a lot about Millers so far. He must have already got the point of that role. If not, he might have asked questions about it.

Also, am I the only one who thinks that EPM and Chaos are (soft) defending each other?

We know each other irl and I think have town reads on each other

[evilpacman18]

Bert can you just trust me that Annnn is town and go back to voting Konowa? That was good.

[evilpacman18]

I can see Annnnn scum after the eagerness to hammer in 1186. One of him or Konowa is dcum. I'd still rather start with a Konowa lynch because I feel like the role arguments against him are strongest.

[evilpacman18]

if Konowa is a scum read, please vote him and then when he flips scum you will have nothing to worry about.

[evilpacman18]

we are not lynching chaos or bert today, if you are town and voting for one of the two of them, please make an actual vote of substance on either Konowa or Annnnnn, srsly

[evilpacman18]

those are such stupid votes, jesus

[evilpacman18]

it's a shitty, disproven claim afaict, if that's not substance to you then idk

[evilpacman18]

on your Konowa read: You're probably unaware of the bodyguard and tracker claims that have happened and are much more believable

[evilpacman18]

Nvm my last post i should probably read

[evilpacman18]

Sthar what was the role PM you wanted

[evilpacman18]

sthar, the thing about Bert's claim is it's so weirdly timed that it must be town. Let's puhleeeeeeeeease lynch Konowa

[evilpacman18]

vote: Konowa

[evilpacman18]

there is no reason to not be voting Konowa right now.

[evilpacman18]

I told you so.

[evilpacman18]

ok now that that's out of the way, there's some actual work in order here.

[evilpacman18]

mafia traitors know who the mafia are always in normal games right?

mod?

[evilpacman18]

Please refer to the wiki for questions like that.

The Traitor may or may not know who is in the Mafia to begin with.

This is unclear, so does that mean you won't say?

[evilpacman18]

Yes and I know that is usually the case but I am trying to have the mod confirm that it IS the case in this game, which he should be able to do, I think, since it's normal.

[evilpacman18]

Is that all of your case?

So another important setup spec question is whether there's one or two scum left. One left seems scum light unless they have some sort of strongman, and two left seems scum heavy, even if they're all goons.

[evilpacman18]

nobody wants to give me their thought on whether it's one or two left?

[evilpacman18]

ok

[evilpacman18]

I'm starting with reading up on Konowa's interactions with everyone who's still alive.

I'm kind of a blank slate but I'm leaning towards Guyett and/or sthar. I really think Cheery Dog is town, because of both his posting today and because of the way Chevre and Konowa both went after him from D1. I think Guyett - whose VCA is really important to his reads in general - missing this is pretty incriminating. Hopefully that read doesn't seem defensive, there's not really precedent for much of anything in my ISO but as far as it goes, I think I have been leaning scum on him the entire game. I sort of let it go when FG and Anti were letting him go, and because I really didn't care about anything while Konowa was left alive for no reason. Aneninen is a ?

I think Konowa and Chevre's ISOs and VC history offer all the proof anyone should need that Boonskiies/Cheery was decidedly not scum. Chevre near the end of D1 looks like he was just trying to be on whatever the most likely counterwagon to his lynch was gonna be. Konowa and Chevre both had turns on the Boonskiies wagon. I notice in the D1 vote counts too that Konowa tends to be just a few steps behind either Chevre or Guyett for basically the entire day.
190 and 192 are interesting. Time-wise they're super close together and they're both responses to particular posts, but in 192, Konowa addresses Guyett's 179. It's random because the intent of those two very close together posts is otherwise completely conversational, and it's an oddly specific quote that he picks out to talk about, it just seems to me like he's trying to be in conversation with Guyett.
Anen remains a ?, Konowa's ISO is unhelpful in that regard but I think that's a good thing.
1187 is valuable, I normally wouldn't read something like "Guy has been obvtown all game" as something one scumbuddy would say to another scumbuddy (from Konowa's point of view, here) but I noticed in I think 1035 that Konowa seemed pretty submissive to Guy. Like he expresses in multiple posts that he doesn't understand peoples' reasoning, but it's only with Guyett that he asks for help understanding ("what am I missing?"), rather than acting smarter than/coachy to the other person (compare with 1042 for instance, "you're being too gullible").
On Brood/sthar, Konowa's ISO is also fairly unhelpful.

So right now scum->town I've got Guyett, sthar, Anen, Cheery
Chevre's ISO is next

[evilpacman18]

Oh I also have to look into who was actively hindering the Konowa lynch D3

[evilpacman18]

actually idk if that'll be helpful, depends on if scum figured out Konowa was their traitor.

[evilpacman18]

Aneninen can now be cleared by Chao's tracker result, unless you what to believe he's got at least one ninja shot.

oh true. good.

[evilpacman18]

messed up tags

[evilpacman18]

and probably should have read page 57

[evilpacman18]

vote: Guyett

[evilpacman18]

sthar if Cheery flips town, will you at least reconsider on Guyett tomorrow instead of quicklynching me

[evilpacman18]

eh I suppose your answer doesn't actually change the way this is gonna go

vote: Cheery Dog

[evilpacman18]

just think about it tonight.

[evilpacman18]

Yep

[evilpacman18]

inb4 sthar/guyett scum team

[evilpacman18]

the suspense

[evilpacman18]

I will wait for sthar to confirm himself as town

[evilpacman18]

just making sure I'm right

[evilpacman18]

Good night then.
If he's scum and comes in and lynches me I figure at least I won't be the one who fucked up

[evilpacman18]

sweet

vote: Guyett

[evilpacman18]

please ask me anything

[evilpacman18]

also Guyett is scum because if he was town and only 99% sure, he wouldn't have voted in his first post.

[evilpacman18]

I don't think I've played with guyett unless he's an alt

[evilpacman18]

also Guyett is scum because if he was town and only 99% sure, he wouldn't have voted in his first post.

Second actually.
I'm quite confident in mt ability to read some people. Glad I had sthar right

So what you're saying is you picked 99% because you thought it would seem to reflect a small margin of town uncertainty but really you knew for a fact that sthar is town.

[evilpacman18]

You're wrong =\

[evilpacman18]

I guess it's my fault for the disinterested first half

[evilpacman18]

I hope konowa comes in to say something about whether or not it's difficult to be anti-town when you don't know who scum are

[evilpacman18]

Maybe I shouldn't have hammered Cheery but there was basically no way to avoid my lynch with Anen and sthar against me and Guyett riding it

[evilpacman18]

same frikkin thing happened to me in the game I was in before this lol *coughchasolordcough*

[evilpacman18]

Hmm I was more right than usual this game