Mini 1601: B_E's Mind Mafia ABANDIFIED

[Ythill]

Hello everyone. Especially ABR. And welcome back, dybeck. I've recently returned from hiatus myself.

vote: hephaestus

Not random.

[Ythill]

Here are my reads so far: Scum = Riddle; Town = Csareo, Kid, dybeck, Aegor, ABR. I had heph as scum initially but he's redeemed himself back to null and Csareo, who looked very townie at first, is starting to slip a little. Keeping my vote where it is for now because I see no point in moving it.

And... "not random"? That's a joke or a meta-reference I don't get, right?

Meta reference. Specifically, I checked for changes in activity during the pregame. Not really very indicative, but better than RVS, which I don't participate in.

@Townies, what are your thoughts on post #38? Am I overthinking this?

Aegor's cryptic vote and reluctance to cooperate with you was a mild town tell this early in the game, IMO.

@Csaereo:

In post 35, you mentioned two wagons and claimed that you randomized which one to vote. When asked about it later, you claimed the other wagon was on you. Did you flip a coin to decide whether to self-vote? If not, what did you mean?

[Ythill]

I'll tell you what I think of it. I agree.

unvote
vote: Csareo

The "two wagon" thing smells really odd.

[Ythill]

I think dybeck meant Csareo and heph, not Csareo and Aegor. What's funny is, when I agreed, I thought he meant Csaereo and Riddle (which was C's first vote). Csareo + heph doesn't seem as likely to me.

@Csareo:

I voted you because you still haven't explained the "two wagon" thing in a way that makes sense as something other than a slip.

[Ythill]

Ack, ninja'd by a whole page.

@Riddle:

What are you talking about? Please tell me what you think about Csareo's "randomized" wagon vote and his later answer that one of the wagons was on himself.

[Ythill]

@Riddle:

I'll lay it out for you...

Joining on one of the two wagons (move faster game). Don't worry, I randomized it.

Which wagons?

I would still like to hear about your suggestion that there were two RVS wagons. Did you really think there were two or were you playing "scum/stupid"?

One on me and one on you.
1 +1 = 2
Math is fun, isn't it?

This suggests that Csareo randomized to choose between a wagon on himself and heph, which doesn't make sense.

@Csaereo:

In post 35, you mentioned two wagons and claimed that you randomized which one to vote. When asked about it later, you claimed the other wagon was on you. Did you flip a coin to decide whether to self-vote? If not, what did you mean?

I didn't like his answer(s). And I said so when I changed my vote.

Not sure how that was so hard to understand.

[Ythill]

@dybeck:

I just reread #62 and you seem fairly certain of my alignment. What is your read based on?

Considering #48, Csareo/Riddle/dybeck scumteam could make sense. Is it really that easy?

[Ythill]

Upgrading heph to town in my reads. Just sayin.

[Ythill]

Heph read change was because I compiled my notes and he has more towntells than scumtells now.

Riddleton is because he gives me a free pass (#7), has bad logic on an attack (#15), and now his non-answer in #82. There is also cognitive dissonance in him FoSing me for "switching quickly" onto the person he is still voting, which is why I asked.

[Ythill]

@TSO:

Daytalk speculation is WIFOM like whoa. Only scumtell on heph, other than now obsolete pregame activity, was pretty mild. OMGUS in #37.

@Riddle:

It was an assumption devoid of suspicion. That's all.

[Ythill]

@TSO:

I actually still have dybeck as town lean, officially. The comment you seem to be referring to is about #62, and I'd prefer dybeck answer my question before I go into detail. The rest of the comment was about #48, in which he chains a heph lynch on a Csareo scumflip.

[Ythill]

My reads have changed a bit. Here they are:

Scum: Csareo, Riddle
Leaning Town: Kid, dybeck, ABR
Town: TSO, Aegor, heph

[Ythill]

Csareo has been @ L-2 for a while now. Hmmmm...

This will be good info whenever we have a confirmed alignment.

[Ythill]

@ABR:

What do you think of Csareo?

@Nic:

Same question.

@TSO:

Found any scum yet?

[Ythill]

@Csareo:

I'm guessing the reason TSO wasn't suspicious of my vote is because it's not suspicious. You made what looked like a slip and you still haven't adequately excused it. Full (and IMO unnecessary) explanation in #99. Nuff said.

Daytalk speculation isn't WIFOM. Trying to call it a scum or town tell is.

It's cute that you're acting like I'm under pressure when you're the one two votes from lynch.

[Ythill]

Are you talking about post #61 where I expressed interest in your RVS strategy?

Yes, #61. Sorry about that. I asked because you took interest in the strategy in a way that looks like you're assuming (or know) my alignment. (I believe this also answers TSO's question?)

I think Csareo is scum, Ythill.

Why have you refrained from voting him?

I think we established that Kid A's post had nothing to do with me, yet ythill changed his vote because of it

Your entire asshat case hinges on this assertion, which you've done nothing to prove. You're building a strawman and now evoking ad populum attacks with an imaginary gallery. If you are town, which I doubt, it's not surprising to me that your "meta" gets you in trouble a lot. You haven't even voted me.

I think you're just pissed because I caught you.

[Ythill]

Also, LOLing at

anyone

who actually thinks that changing reads in the face of new information is scummy.

[Ythill]

Too much noise in here. Also, Csareo's #172 was scummy like whoa.

unvote, vote Riddleton

This is what it looks like when I actually sheep Kid. IMO, the game state suggests that a few other townies should do the same.

[Ythill]

@mod: I unvoted Csareo. He has three votes now.

What are you talking about?

-B_E

[Ythill]

@beast:

Why do you think I'm scum?

If that post was so scummy, why are you following Csar's lead and voting Riddleton?

The game state, as I said in my post.

What has Riddleton done that warrants jumping off a wagon, right after its target makes a post that is "scummy like whoa"?

Nothing at all. Csareo is still my lead suspect ATM, I'm just not voting him.

[Ythill]

@beast:

You say you are not in a hurry to end the day but I can't see any other reason to keep our votes on our top suspects. The main purpose of D1 is to create info for later analysis. Tunnel vision and quicklynching help the scum. Vote movement and bandwagoning help the town.

I rarely see stuff like #15 being accurately indicative of alignment, btw. I think Csareo is scum for other reasons.

@Elias:

I'm not going into detail right now. It may help your understanding if you look at my meta, specifically VC analysis.

[Ythill]

Going through my notes and adjusting reads again. Ironically, Riddle is redeeming himself a bit. Still voting him though, let the shitstorm begin.

Leaning town on Elias. ABR got dropped from the town lean list because the noise overwhelmed his weak signal.

[Ythill]

IMO, it would help us if lone voters picked a wagon or consolidated. People who are not voting should start playing the game.

@beast:

If you want me to teach you how to play mafia, ask outside the game thread. If the scum haven't figured out the aspects of play that make particular game states fruitful for particular information, then I'm not tipping them off until it's no longer relevant. If you think game state is a scummy reason to vote, I'm fine with you voting me.

@Aegor:

I don't see that being productive ATM. Maybe later.

[Ythill]

I am also not going anywhere. This many replacements on D1 is bad for town. Sig/noise ratio is getting even worse.

I'd like to know what you saw in the "game state" that told you "a few other townies" should sheep kid.

I will explain as soon as it's no longer relevant. To address your suspicion, I often find that scum are cooperative rather than obstinate.

At this point, a wagon on me would be as fruitful as one on Riddle. Not going to self vote though, lulz.

@Aegor:

Ready to move that vote off ABR and put it to good use?

[Ythill]

@mod:

xRECKONERx seemed excited about playing a game with me, you might PM him and see if he wants to replace. I'd have done it myself, except for that pesky ongoing games rule.

[Ythill]

I know you weren't asking me but my read on Elias is getting even more townie.

[Ythill]

Riddle wagon seems to be going nowhere, and the only other good option is on me. Sigh. On the bright side, I can answer Elias' questions once this situation dissolves.

Anyone want to pile on dybeck? Or a lurker? If not, fence sitters should feel free to vote me. We can still be friends.

[Ythill]

Nope. Patience, grasshopper. Or, I suppose, start a wagon that changes the game state.

@TSO:

Vote movement and wagons help catch scum. Ideally, we spend most of the early game with 2-3 big wagons rather than a bunch of votes scattered around. Later, when we have flips to work with, voting patterns can reveal which players knew everyone's alignments.

I'd rather not be lynched, obv, but even if I am, I'd like my wagon to provide info for the rest of you.

Speaking of... would you be willing to vote

someone

?

[Ythill]

Also, TSO's question makes me love my avatar even more.

[Ythill]

unvote, vote Csareo

L-2

Okay, the game state has changed. I'd still rather not engage in full disclosure but I will, since the curiosity has been linked to questions about my alignment.

Riddle was one of Csareo's suspects and the target of his vote. He has also been mentioned as suspicious by a few people who strongly suspect Csareo. Having concurrent wagons on the two of them creates a voting dilemma that could be information rich. For example, if either flips scum, we could look for Csareo moving his vote off as the pressure builds or, if Csareo flips scum, we could look for people who said they suspected him more, but rode the Riddle wagon all the way to claim. Etc.

I just now found out by clicking the wrong icon that you can ISO multiple people at the same time.

Were you isoing Kid? Why?

[Ythill]

I thought you were referring to Elias.

The "three active scum" theory is possible but weak. I'd wager at least one is a lurker.

I don't want anyone putting this thing to L-1 and a potential selfhammer until I question a few people.

Claim-land is anti-town too, until we are ready to lynch.

Scum found, in my opinion. The lack of replies from him solidifies that. I want to get him lynched today as he is our main lead. I think anyone can agree with me there.

He's certainly on the list but I'm keeping an open mind. I'd like to hear from our lower activity players and replacements before we end the day, and I'd like to see serious wagons too, to create info and hopefully shake out some slips with pressure. There are still scum under the radar here.

[Ythill]

I agree that one is perhaps a lurker. I highly doubt that two of them are lurking.

Based entirely on your suspicions, or do you have other reasons for this assumption?

[Ythill]

Yes; I wanted to see his three posts.

Obv. What was it you wanted to see about his posts? Did it pertain to the conversation you were involved in?

[Ythill]

Ohey I'm back and there's four new pages. I've skimmed, going to read in depth and take notes before posting again. Replacements are hell on my notes, BTW. Sadface.

Rushing the lynch is kinda scummy. Calling for a flustered player to claim @ L-2 is scummy as fuck. So, yeah, some people got more suspicious. TSO sullies himself a bit too, because his doublespeak around Csareo sounds like a mafioso who knows that the guy in the noose is town, but he also seems to be suffering from healthy townie paranoia and I have to doubt any theory that hinges on Csareo-town, at least a little.

@TSO:

I'm online sporadically at all times of day and night. I'll try to check in regularly and at least skim votes if I'm involved in a big wagon.

unvote, vote Kid A

Because bandwagoning. Moar votes pl0x?

[Ythill]

Just saw that Aegor answered my question and it confirms my suspicion about him. See posts #253, 258, 277, & 279. Aegor voted Kid and then, after asked why he voted, ISO'd to make sure it was valid. Seems more scum than town. Although I've had Aegor as town so... meh.

Okay, the game state has changed. I'd still rather not engage in full disclosure but I will, since the curiosity has been linked to questions about my alignment.

I do not like this post. If Csareo gets lynched, I will return to it. This is more of a personal note than anyhting.

What does this mean? Is the suspicion predicated on a townflip? Scumflip? Either?

[Ythill]

Page 14 is a good one. The rest has a serious signal/noise problem but oh well. I'm fine with a second RVS as long as we are doing so in blocs.

@mod:

You still have me voting two people even though I've only placed one vote.

Reads from my now-caught-up notes

:
Scum (in order): Csareo, beast, Riddle
Town: Elias, TSO, Aegor, heph
Null/Mid/Meh/PostMoar: everyone else (sadface)

It's unlikely I am correct about all three scum reads because lurkers, but the talk about a five player game is silly. Eight slots have posted plenty.

[Ythill]

Please wagon Kid A.

Or start a reasonable wagon elsewhere so I can blatantly sheep you. Kthx.

[Ythill]

Nope. I had him at town lean early but he's posted very little content relatively, so I dropped him to null.

I'm just seriously in favor of a few quick, consecutive wagons before we decide who to lynch. Preferably not on one of my town reads but... whatevs, it's D1.

[Ythill]

Note: a lot of my increased suspicion on beast is due to impatience and tunneling. I should probably check his meta to determine if he is truly scummy or just bad at the early game.

[Ythill]

I read a bunch of beast's town meta in iso. He is sometimes impatient and tunneling as town, but never quite this bad. Minimizing those as tells for him but not ignoring them entirely; this correction does not move him off my scum list but does put him below Riddle.

@beast:

Can you point me in the direction of your scum meta, pretty please?

@Oka:

I see you've played a few games with beast, where he was town. What is your opinion of his impatience in this game as it compares with your past experience of him. Have you played a game where he was scum?

[Ythill]

I just didn't see any in the ones I clicked. Any scum meta where you lived through D1 will do. I prefer normals if you've got those. I just want to get the whole picture, since I'm considering a substantial amount of the points I have against you.

[Ythill]

Skimmed. Concur on the scum wall, beast.

@TSO:

I hope you're not counting my vote as purely pressure. I've got no problem lynching a null D1.

[Ythill]

Over a scum read?

Over a no lynch.

@mod:

I'm voting Kid.

[Ythill]

I'm here and catching up.

@mod:

I am voting Kid A, not Csareo. Not trying to be an ass, but the amount of VC errors in this game is going to make play difficult later on.

[Ythill]

Direct responses first...

How did you come to the conclusion it was even possible for us to No Lynch when everyone thinks Csareo is scum?

I meant in general. Let me rephrase the original point: my votes are never

just

pressure, I only join wagons if I am okay with them becoming lynches, even if there are other lynches I'd prefer. Is that clearer?

What? I ISOd Kid A before I voted.

The time stamps say bullshit. You voted Kid on 8/17 at 7:36pm. You commented about ISOing when you were asked about the vote, on 8/18 at 11:18am. Please explain why you waited nearly sixteen hours to make that offhanded comment.

I don't care how many towntells you have in my notes, this is a scum lie like whoa.

if you don't think [Kid A is] scum why do you wagon him?

(edited to clarify a pronoun)

I've already touched on this in-thread. I use my vote as an info tool in the early game. Also, I'm not very particular about D1 lynches. I don't put a lot of stake in most behavioral tells and have long believed that D1 is little better than random, except that it creates info for the mid and late game.

Where is that case you said you were going to make? I spent time finding my scum games for you but you have yet to deliver

1. It wasn't for a case. The opposite, actually. I am learning about your meta because my suspicion of you was largely based on impatience and tunneling which might be null.

2. I haven't read the meta yet, because I have an incredibly hot gf and she's been at my house. Which is why I've been skimming and am now catching up.

[Ythill]

So you needed to ISO him again, sixteen hours later, to see what it was in his three posts that you were suspicious of? Poppycock.

I went through the towntells I have listed in my notes for Aegor. They are the typical D1 stuff: behavioral, mostly weak. None of them stack up against this lie. I'm dropping him off my town list, which he was near the bottom of anyway. I'll post updated lists in a bit, after I'm done tabulating reads.

If Aegor was lower than L-2 or Csar hadn't claimed, I'd vote him right now. Instead, I'm going to find somewhere useful for my vote and wait to make sure everyone on that wagon is serious. If Aegor gets to L-1 and claims, I WILL hammer him (unless he somehow manages to clear up his lies).

[Ythill]

Elias and TSO are looking more townie overall. Though Elias seemed pretty scummy across 457 and 458 (where he allows himself to be talked on to L-2), it's not enough to counteract the townie stuff I've seen him do.

Riddle picked up more scumtells than towntells in the last couple of pages, including posturing his vote change and trying to make copying beast seem like his own work. Dybeck gets scum points for his wall and the way he built a strawman on defense, but the problem with dybeck scum (and it's strange that others' have ignored this) is that his only major "slip" requires Anen to be town.

Anen's replacement reread was terrible and gives new scumpoints to the slot. He seems more concerned with defense and fluff than anything, and his points are more about playstyle than alignment. Shinobi, on the other hand, gains some town cred, looking forward to seeing more from him.

The biggest turn around is beast. I skimmed his scum meta and learned something very valuable. Beast is far less impatient and tunnelly as scum. Far less. So drastically that I flipped all of the scumtells based on that behavior into town tells which moves him from low on the scum list to very strongly town.

The rest of the players didn't shift much over the last few pages or are posting too little. However, I did find it odd that Oka, who was involved in the discussion of beast's meta and has personal experience with it, voted him solely for impatience and tunneling.

Current Reads

:
Scum (in order): Anen, Riddle
Town: Elais, beast, TSO, heph
Meh: Everyone else. If you are in this category, chances are you need to post WAY more.

[Ythill]

unvote, vote dybeck

[Ythill]

The bolded part refers to where dybeck says something along the lines of "when you're a townie, you're a townie," suggesting that he knows Anen to be town.

Neither Aegor nor dybeck are in my scum category. I'm comfortable voting anyone not in my town category on D1. I prefer an Anen lynch at this point but I'm not picky. I get pickier as we get deeper into the game. I'm voting dybeck because it seems like a useful place to park while I'm seeing this situation through on Aegor. He hasn't had pressure yet and he's dropped some scumtells.

Then why would I want to claim?

The point is, I don't want you claiming unless you are very likely to be lynched. Or anyone else for that matter. So I am not putting you, or anyone, at L-1 lightly.

[Ythill]

Still not buying Aegor's story, BTW. No need to beat him into the ground with it though.

[Ythill]

I'm okay with lynching him. Not okay with multiple claims that do not lead to a lynch.

@mod:

My vote should have been on Kid A last VC and now is on dybeck.

[Ythill]

I've already explained my votes, Anen. And yes, your walls were fluffed, probably to make it look like you care about hunting. The few people who are still wondering if you're scum can go back and read for themselves.

@Elias:

I try to keep my scumlist more objective than most people. I tabulate tells and compare. Anen and Riddle have substantially more scumtells than towntells on the table in my notes. The people on my town list are the opposite. People with a close-to-balanced result are at null. It usually works better but this game has been noise heavy and low on content from some slots.

Aegor currently has three scumtells (with one being a serious one) and six towntells, so he's at null, officially. Dybeck has four scumtells (again, one serious), and only three towntells. By the numbers, he's technically scummier than Aegor, but I don't think it matters with so little data.

[Ythill]

Then why are you asking again? More fluff. Trying to look busy without actually doing anything.

Why would I bother asking about something I can clearly see scum motivation in?

[Ythill]

The problem with the scum-or-stupid argument for Csareo is that Anen is still scummy and clearly not stupid.

@Riddle:

I was referring to #423. Doing a bunch of busy work to basically agree with someone is scummy IMO. I'll be addressing your Yth-case in a separate post.

@TSO:

I can't speak for everyone but I certainly don't agree with you. I got bored this morning and produced some numbers. Anen's three walls contained 58 links, I sorted them into categories below. Maybe a bit subjective but you can always sort them yourself. See what I mean about fluff vs. scumhunting?

Agreeing with a post or calling it townie: 16
Chatter and saying hi to people: 14
Suspicions that are arbitrary or clearly null (examples: not having enough reads, voting without a case):12
Viable suspicions that others already pointed out: 7
Defending other people: 4
Defending his predecessor: 3
Viable, original suspicions: 2

[Ythill]

Ythill Read

-#165: it's not changing reads that is scummy, but rather changing reads quickly, without reason, or under pressure is scummy. Not a major scumtell but it is something.

I was not under pressure. Also, the read I "changed quickly" was from where I called Csareo town in #58, my second post. You expect me to have solid, hard-to-change reads in my second post? Also, note that my read changed because Csareo lied about the reasons he got on a wagon. That's pretty drastic, especially when compared to the info I'd seen before it.

-#187: sheeps Kid in voting me for "Game State" purposes. He has little to no case against me and finds Csareo scummier (see below)
-#187: Csareo is "scummy like WHOA" but I am voted instead. this was mentioned earlier and I agree this is scummy.
-Cryptically refers to the "Game state" in a lot of posts to hide or not disclose reasoning behind anything. Hiding your reasons because of "Game State" is a weak argument. Transparency is good for town. Yes, I understand Game State is probably referring to VCA, or something similar. I still don't think it's a very good reason to be secretive.

This is you disagreeing with how I play and has nothing to do with my alignment. Check my meta if you don't believe me, there's plenty of it. "Transparency is good for town," is complete fail. Otherwise all the power roles would claim, and traps would never be set. Also, if you want to address the strength of my argument, why not quote my full disclosure from #259.

-Speaking of game state, has the "Game State" become that flexible to the point where anyone is free to vote Dybeck, a lurker or you in #245?

Voting me at that point would have capitalized on that game state. The others wouldn't have. They were alternatives posted as an attempt to get some movement and content going in a stalled game.

-I agree with TSO in that being so content with being voted is a little strange.

Why? Townies should suspect me along with everyone else. Also, see above.

-Refuses to answer my question in #248. Even when the game state has miraculously 'changed' in #259, he still says he won't disclose more than he needs to.

Re: 259... It had become clear that your wagon had no momentum. Meanwhile, pressure was building on Kid A, who was not a part of the dilemma. That's not a miracle.

-In #389 you say Beast's tunnelling is "never quite this bad". What do you mean by that? Can you link me to a game where has has tunnelled, but to a more minor extent? Because the post seems a bit vague otherwise.

Open 525 Micro 364 There were others too.

-This was already pointed out as well, but I don't understand #420 either. No one ever mentioned a No Lynch. We're not going to, either. Someone is going to get lynched today.

It was a direct response to your loaded question. I rephrased in #464, in response to TSO asking the same question. Are you reading thoroughly?

[Ythill]

How? Should I post next time I have a case with just a naked vote?

You should post however you like, but if you include a bunch of unnecessary fluff with the sole function of making you look townie, you should expect me to call you on it. I have no problem with naked votes.

So you only voted Kid A to see if it would draw a bandwagon? Do you or don't you think that he's scum?

Yes. He was and currently is on my null list. I've said this before.

[Ythill]

What you actually said was "transparency is good for town," which is mind-killing rhetoric and advocating complete transparency. Way to change it after the fact though.

Please explain how it's necessary for you to provide a color-coded chart that illustrates what another player has already stated.

Also, nice strawman about me being anti-activity. Complete fabrication.

[Ythill]

Meh... I guess "chart" is the wrong word but you know what I mean.

[Ythill]

@Anen:

If you respond to me and then I respond to you and then etc, that's not tunneling. Nor is it tunneling to answer TSO's question about you. Just sayin. I think my willingness to lynch several other players makes it extremely clear that I'm not suffering from tunnel vision. You are just my top scum read, that's all.

Sorry I'm just editing your post to test something about the votecounter. VOTE: Dybeck

[Ythill]

I think you missed his point there, Anen.

I believe a cohesive counter-wagon could be useful here. Willing to assist with anyone not on my town list. Although pretty soon we're going to have to get down to srs bsns.

[Ythill]

Caught up with my notes, will post lynch list in a sec. Here are some direct responses.

In fact, I'm not sure I see any benefit of lying about the ISO thing in the first place...I agree his story makes no sense, but where is the benefit of making that claim as scum?

Sorry I missed this earlier. The theory is that he didn't think about how the timing of his ISO was scummy until after I called him on it, then tried to lie his way out of trouble.

Also, I remember someone questioning Ythill on his townread of Kid A, and I can't find him giving an answer anywhere. Can someone not stupid help me with this or did he just flat-out not do it?

Don't remember the question but I rarely explain my townreads. Kid isn't even on my townlist. He was town in my second post, for probably next to nothing. He fell to town lean which was eventually absorbed into null for lack of meaningful content.

[Ythill]

Tabulated my notes. The only change to my list is that Shinobi made it to the town category, which is ironic because him pushing Aegor from the sidelines was notes as a scumtell from him.

Here are my lynch preferences in order: Anen, Riddle, dybeck, Aegor, FT, Kid, Oka.

I love being third on so many lists.

[Ythill]

unvote; vote Anen

srs bsns

[Ythill]

@Oka:

So you're calling for my lynch based on playstyle points that were discussed days ago? Bravo. Also, I've never said that wagoning was scummy. I think it's extremely pro-town in the early game, and I've said so in this thread.

I wasn't pushing Aegor from the sidelines...?

You were third on the wagon and dropped off at L-1, which is not scummy. But now you are harping on him heavily while he's at L-2 without your vote. This reads as scum motivated regardless of his alignment (either distancing before a scumflip or pushing a town lynch without the incriminating vote). I also understand that it could be the product of tunnel vision, and it is the only scummy thing I have seen from your slot, which is dropping a fair amount of towntells so... yeah... Not a huge concern, just ironic that you did it while making my town list.

Isn't your lynch-list a bit too long?

It's not my fault so few people have been active/obvtown enough to get on my town list.

What exactly about him convinced you?

I see no benefit in explaining townreads, even old ones, unless I'm trying to derail a lynch.

Do you feel [being third on everyone's lists is] relevant in any way?

Not alignment relevant, but it does make it more likely I'll live through the night, so it pleases me to have successfully walked that fine line.

[Ythill]

Minor changes to my reads, based on the posts between my last list and this one:

Scum: Anen, Riddle, dybeck
Meh but will lynch anyway: Aegor, FT, Oka, Feirei

Dybeck's misleading OMGUS wall was enough to move him to my official scum category but that doesn't change his place in my preference order. Oka's weak case on me and mild town vibes from Feirei were enough for them to swap places, though both reads are still inconclusive.

IMO, the time for info gathering is coming to a close, people should get their votes on their top candidates now.

[Ythill]

Also, I think meta can be useful to dismiss tells that might be personal habits, but I agree that it is a terrible basis for a vote.

[Ythill]

@Oka:

So you think I'm bussing? I notice Aegor isn't on your scumlist. If Anen and I are both scum, wouldn't it have been a better play for me to take a stance against Aegor?

[Ythill]

These are interesting developments. I love crunch time.

@Shinobi:

I see no benefit to arguing this into the ground.

[Ythill]

Ythill, are you willing to hang dybeck with me?

Sure. I'll even go against my own advice and jump on now though he's not my top suspect. Fair warning though, I will be swapping back if one of my preferred lynches becomes viable.

unvote; vote dybeck

[Ythill]

I believe that's L-2. Beast was parked on dybeck.

[Ythill]

Still thinking Anen is more likely a scumflip. Like whoa.

[Ythill]

It's L-2. Beast, Aegor, Feirei, TSO, me.

No early claims.

[Ythill]

Heh. Good catch, dude. Feirei swapped really quick from pro to anti on dybeck too. Hmmm...

[Ythill]

Gambit potential. Counterclaims are unwise, yes?

unvote; vote Anen

[Ythill]

Hmmm... Does a mafia RB counterclaim his goon buddy in this scenario?

I just realized the votes are not listed in order, so I guess I'll have to re-order them in the VCs before analysis. Will try to get that done during N1 and probably be successful if I'm not distracted by the girl.

Goodnight.

[Ythill]

I started VCA with dybeck/riddle flips overnight. Need to edit for the Aegor flip and perform analysis. Will post it this morning.

At this point, I seriously doubt Anen is scum. Read post post 397, specifically dybeck's slip, "A vanilla townie claim doesn't help his case much - but when you're a townie, you're a townie." Also, note that dybeck was vote-parked on the slot for most of the day, even when alternatives were offered, until the wagon dissolved. Which brings me to another point...

There were so many VC errors on D1 that we may want to abandon this game.

For example, the Anen slot was technically lynched in post #292 though I doubt Elias would have dropped the hammer if he had known. I'm fine playing this out but I'd also understand if people wanted to call it a forfeit.

VOTE: Feirei

[Ythill]

What do you mean?

[Ythill]

Fair enough.

I'm working on VCA now, will get to the other meat (like a scum iso) today or at least by Monday. For now, my vote is marking the slot I find scummiest based on pseudo-gut (a skim of dybeck and incomplete analysis). We'll see if it holds up as I go through the info we have.

[Ythill]

...what happened? Are you stilly Ythill? Or did the fairies abducted you last night and I'm talking to a changeling right now? ^_^

Like I said yesterday, I think behavioral tells are far less reliable than other methods of scumhunting. Especially early ones. When I tabulate my reads today, I intend to assign a small number of points to reflect my D1 behavioral reads but I always try to keep an open mind while performing sunrise analysis. Further, slips from concerned scum are often accurate indicators because they are painfully aware of everyone's alignment, and dybeck

did

suggest that you were town.

That said, my pseudo-gut may have been wrong. I haven't done the math but your slot has been getting more scumpoints in the VCA than it seemed at a glance.

[Ythill]

Here is the D1 VCA with corrections for errors and voting order. I added an unofficial VC at the point of dybeck's claim. Red refers to dead scum and green to known town. As usual, if you are uncomfortable with my own name being listed in green, you can do your own VCA or edit/repost this one.

#44

Csareo (3):

Riddleton

, hephaestus, Kid A
hephaestus (3):

Ythill

, Darkcrimson, NicCage

Aegor

(1): Csareo
NicCage (2): Albert B. Rampage,

Aegor

T S O (1): PMysterious
Kid A (1):

Dybeck

Not Voting (3): VisceraEyes, T S O

Not much to be gleaned here. Scum don't like to start early wagons, as demonstrated by the top two. Expect to find them on one of those, in RVS, or not voting at all. Inexperienced scum random votes a buddy? Too WIFOMy to result in Feirei scumpoints.

#144

Csareo (5):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus, Kid A,

dybeck

,

Ythill

NicCage (2): Albert B. Rampage,

Aegor

Hephaestus (2): Darkcrimson, NicCage
T S O (1): PMysterious
Not voting (3): Csareo, VisceraEyes, T S O

This game state was static for two VCs. Still early, but the Anen (Csareo) wagon had scum and a lot of steam. If there is more than one scum on board, expect them to jump off soon because of not wanting to quick bus a buddy or be sullied en masse in a quick mislynch. Csareo pulling his vote could be construed as scummy, but town might have done that due to pressure.

#191

Csareo (4):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus,

dybeck

,

Aegor

Hephaestus (2): Darkcrimson, NicCage
T S O (1): PMysterious
Aegor (1): Albert B. Rampage

Riddleton

(3): Kid A, Csareo,

Ythill

Not voting (2) Elias_The_Thief, T S O

Look who followed expected scum behavior: scumpoints for Feirei (Kid). If Fei flips scum, this count will reveal a lot more information. For example, Kid and Anen are not likely buddies, and Kid scum mildly suggests heph scum. Not counting these hypotheticals into my suspicions, just stating them for use later in case I die.

Beast and Elias gave a 2 vote option on me between these VCs, but it went nowhere. This suggests that one of them is scum, and/or Anen is town.

#255

Csareo (5):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus,

dybeck

, TSO, beastcharizard
Kid A (1):

Aegor

Hephaestus (1): NicCage

Aegor

(1): Albert B. Rampage

Riddleton

(3): Kid A, Csareo,

Ythill

Not voting (2): PMysterious, Elias_the_Thief

The Riddle wagon went nowhere across more than 60 posts, which suggests that Anen is town. A count of potential Csareo votes shows that a quicklynch was possible; scumpoints for TSO and beast for making it possible at this juncture. Moreso beast, because he voted later.

#284

Csareo (6):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus ,

dybeck

, TSO, beastcharizard,

Ythill

Kid A (2):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief
Hephaestus (1): NicCage,

Aegor

(1): Albert B. Rampage

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Csareo
Not Voting (1): PMysterious

Csareo reaches L-1 though it was mistaken for L-2 at the time. This was followed by an Elias vote which he thought was L-1. Isn’t it early for a claim? He even took a stance about claim avoidance being protown later.

#369

Csareo (4):

Riddleton

, Hephaestus,

dybeck

,

Ythill

Kid A (2):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief
Hephaestus (1): Fat_Tony

Aegor

(1): OkaPoka

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Csareo
Elias_the_thief (1): beastcharizard
Not Voting (2): PMysterious , T S O

Not much info here. Scum were probably spread out as the game state changed and replacements got their bearings. Note that dybeck has been parked on Csareo since he abandoned his RV in #45; that’s a long time and a lot of pressure for distancing.

#411

Kid A (4):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief,

Ythill

,

Riddleton

Csareo (1): hephaestus

Aegor

(2): OkaPoka,

dybeck

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Csareo

dybeck

(1): beastcharizard
Not Voting (3): PMysterious , T S O, Fat_Tony

Look at this pretty wagon. Kid or Elias is likely scum. Maybe both. Dybeck could have followed Riddle and I onto Kid but chose to shift elsewhere against the flow. That makes this double damning for the Feirei slot. Meanwhile, beast turns an eye on dybeck with nothing scummy to gain from it.

#436

Kid A (4):

Aegor

, Elias_the_thief,

Ythill

,

Riddleton

Aegor

(2):

dybeck

, hephaestus

Riddleton

(2): Kid A, Aneninen

dybeck

(1): beastcharizard
Shinobi (1): OkaPoka
Not Voting (3): Shinobi , T S O, Fat_Tony

The pretty green wagon holds for at least 25 posts. Lack of scum jumping on suggests they preferred a long shot. More scumpoints for Kid/Elias. One vote off Aegor, another on; the perception that his wagon was growing already existed in thread. Expect scum to capitalize, especially if Feirie is one of them.

#474

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Shinobi, Aneninen, Elias_the_thief
Kid A (2):

Aegor

,

Riddleton

Riddleton

(1): Kid A
beastcharizard (1): OkaPoka

dybeck

(2): beastcharizard,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Fat_Tony, T S O

Expected scum behavior from Shinobi/Anen/Elias. Double for Elias since he jumped off the pretty green wagon late in the swing. Note that my vote created an option on scum which was ignored in favor of the other choice when Kid’s wagon dissolved.

#525

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen, Elias_the_thief,

Riddleton

dybeck

(2): beastcharizard,

Ythill

Riddleton

(1): Kid A
beastcharizard (1): OkaPoka
Kid A (1):

Aegor

Not Voting (3): Fat_Tony, T S O, Shinobi

Though I find unvotes without revotes to be anti-town, the unvote from Shinobi works against scum interests and he gets townpoints for it. A wagon on town stalled in spite of the fact that we had seven potential votes, which suggests two scum on board: dybeck + heph/Anen/Elias.

#581

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen, Elias_the_thief,

Riddleton

dybeck

(1): beastcharizard

Riddleton

(1): Kid A
hephaestus (1): OkaPoka
Kid A (1):

Aegor

Aneninen (1):

Ythill

Not Voting (3): Fat_Tony, T S O, Shinobi

Major stall suggests a few things. Suggests more heavily that one of heph/Anen/Elias was waiting for townies to return. In light of the srs bsns point and the lack of support on Anen, it makes him look a little scummy. Also, take a look at Oka shifting his vote around on non-topics, trying to look useful without incriminating himself.

#662

(unofficial VC to capture dybeck claim)

Aegor

(4):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen,

Riddleton

dybeck

(6): beastcharizard ,

Aegor

, Feirei, T S O,

Ythill

, Elias_the_thief
Aneninen (1): OkaPoka
Not Voting (2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

This was a quick swing from town to scum during a crucial game state and whomever shot Aegor last night should get an award for info creation. Scum would have jumped on dybeck early without pushing too hard. Feirei gets major scumpoints. Scum on the Aegor wagon stayed parked (potentially heph/Anen). Scum would not have shifted from Aegor to dybeck, which means townpoints for Elias. Obvious townpoints for TSO because he created the wagon out of nothing.

Note that Oka is still doing his useless vote act as if there are not major wagons at the end of the day. He threw a lone vote on me somewhere in there too. Beast did something weird where he revoted dybeck in #657 even though he’d been parked on him since #398. Scum trying to get extra credit?

#673

Aegor

(5):

dybeck

, hephaestus, Aneninen,

Riddleton

, Feirei

dybeck

(4): beastcharizard,

Aegor

, T S O, Elias_the_thief
Aneninen (2): OkaPoka,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

I jumped off to avoid a hammer while we sorted out the claim. It was unnecessary for Feirei to do so afterwards, and it was convenient for it to choose the other major option on town. Also looking at Shinobi staying out of the fray during this major wagon shift; FT was mostly inactive but Shinobi wasn’t. Town would be riding one of the wagons or trying to start an alternative at this point.

#726

dybeck

(7):

Aegor

, T S O, beastcharizard, Elias_the_thief,

Riddleton

, Aneninen, hephaestus

Aegor

(2):

dybeck

, Feirei
Aneninen (2): OkaPoka,

Ythill

Not Voting (2): Shinobi, Fat_Tony

Not much here, because the CC made the fakeclaim obv. Minor scumpoints for Anen and heph for being late to the game. Like, very minor.

I’m going to post this raw, then go through my notes, condense the behavioral tells, and add in these points. Will post a current read list when I’m done, although I might grab a bite to eat before I do. Not going to be abiding a D2 quicklynch. There is a lot of info in this thread and I’m sure we can make an informed decision.

I’m especially interested in seeing others’ conclusions from the work posted above, and the results of dybeck isos.

[Ythill]

#252 doesn't contain a vote.

[Ythill]

Got my notes sorted out.

Scum (in order): Anen, Feirei, Elias
Town: Shinobi, TSO
Mid: everyone else.

Not interested in a lynch from my mids, except maybe Fat_Tony because he's completely null and inactive. Keeping my vote on my #2 for now while I continue analysis.

[Ythill]

@TSO:

Did you find anything in the dybeck wagon/claim?

[Ythill]

Realized I hadn't finished noting behavioral tells from late D1. Went back and did so. Doesn't make a difference in my current reads.

Some things of note... Not only was Aegor pushing Feirei, his logic found it more scummy in the event of a dybeck scumflip. Also, Amen's #665 and #680 were terrible. He seemed to be scum with a buddy in the spotlight.

Also, I saw questions about a vig claim. I don't see it benefiting town enough that we should risk outing a PR.

@mod:

Compare VCs from your isos to votes in dybeck's iso. You missed when he switched his vote off of Kid.

[Ythill]

@mod:

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news. I'd suggest getting people's actual opinions via PM and then making a judgment call.

@players: Sorry for being so incompetent I can't even do a votecount

[Ythill]

Also, I suggest that we keep playing this game for now. Although a playthrough call from the mod may come with a short deadline extension, such is not guaranteed and running out the clock only helps scum. I'm looking at you, Fei.

[Ythill]

Haha, TSO would have been hard to catch. I was coming around on Elias tho.

[Ythill]

Yeah I'd say that would have been a scum win. It's possible I'd have caught on to you eventually but it's doubtful and you might have NKed me once Elias' voting habits moved him up my scumlist. Elias is a good example of why I rely on VCA and post density. His behavior was innocent but his actions were quickly changing my mind.

I'd have been happy with a D2 mod-lynch of Anen and a playthrough but this works out in my favor. There's a regional gathering in WA that I can go to now without replacing. So no, I will not be signing up for a make-up game immediately.