Mini 1625: Redemption (Game Over)

[ChannelDelibird]

What up dawgs. Should be all caught up by this evening (GMT).

[ChannelDelibird]

Hey all. Sorry that I was absent for deadline. Truth be told, I PMed about replacing in at the start of a couple of free days in which I'd have loads of time to read up, but only got the PM back close to the end of that, when time was shorter. Now, with the flips coming in handy, I'll be catching up imminently.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeeesh. Really shitty few days of nonstop work; I should have said something before I was prodded. Appreciate that this looks super bad but, assuming no calamities, I will be free this evening. If you don't hear from me by 1AM GMT, please feel free to lynch and/or vig me.

[ChannelDelibird]

Cracking on with this right now!

[ChannelDelibird]

OK, my read is finished. I'm just compiling a post now with things worth saying. In the meantime, let's make one thing clear:

Do not listen to anything that DGB said after her self-vote. It is a fool's errand.

We are in a

great

position to take this game without needing to read her, as entertaining a presence as she continues to be.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm going to assume that there is only one scum faction until we have evidence to the contrary. At the moment, there is no such evidence. Therefore, what we're looking for is almost certainly one final werewolf buddy.

People who are probably not werewolves

droog:

Caught onto AWA early, caught on hard and never let go. Almost completely inconceivable as a werewolf.

Whomping Willow:

This and this from AWA don't fit with them as buddies; I think Willow is identified fairly early on by AWA as a player whom he thinks can be mislynched at some point. My only concern is round about this point that Willow could plausibly be a buddy who's catching on that AWA is going to be a problem but I think his overall contribution to the lynch and previous links make that unlikely overall. Certainly don't touch this for a while.

Munkir:

I don't think I want to call his early 'Townsperson' post a towntell because I've quite literally lost a game on such an assumption before, but I don't think this seems like how newbscum would treat a partner.

pianist:

Bringing up the 'towntell', however, is a towntell for pianist, especially as it would

have

to be multiball with a pianist-Munkir team for pianist to have a scum motivation to point it out. I also think his calling out of Riddleton here for already knowing TellTaleHeart's alignment is implausible as a buddy.

Flubbernugget:

I don't think that scum-Flubber has any motivation to reread here, given the tone of the game at the time. He could definitely have hung around in the background for longer, with plenty worse offenders than him. Then we have this, which looks like AWA is hoping for a mislynch opportunity on Flubber. The only pause I have about this is that some of AWA's 'caught me for the wrong reasons' indignation perhaps suggests that Flubber might have flipped scum and AWA was hoping to get towncred for dumping him, but if it was a bussing attempt then AWA bungled it badly early on. Seems like a bad idea to lynch Flubber any time soon, then.

TellTaleHeart:

Riddleton's 'trust me' after the reaction to the dayvig is pretty much a slip that istott was town. Only revisit if things go seriously south but I'd be pretty amazed if TTH were to flip scum. (I also don't think that Riddleton would have sounded so confident here about istott being town if he were only in a two-person scumgroup as he wouldn't necessarily assume that everyone else was town, so it's even more likely that we only have one scumgroup)

Remaining possibilities

Originalchris
Naomi-Tan
GGG

GGG:

I think this would be where I'd start Tomorrow. First bugged me when his first vote was for an actual reason but then he switched to something random on crazypianist that would make sense if it were his first post, but not his fourth. I can't see a scumhunting mindset in that switch.

GGG "likes" AWA's first wall but has no insight into why it's good. Sympathises with the AWA vote but is resistant to it while it's still in the early stages and could still die down; very plausible buddy interaction. This is just too aggressively wrong for me to be comfortable with it.

originalchris:

My second choice after GGG, but the gap is reasonably wide. This is a weak entrance - for someone who just made a point of saying he was catching up with the thread, chris misses the answers to the questions he then proceeds to ask droog. I could perhaps see this stubbornness about the 'anyway' thing as the kind of righteous campaigning that scum like to do but my heart's not really in it. There's also this which is not a completely implausible buddy interaction. Definitely start with GGG, though.

Naomi-Tan:

Probably town by POE, but no one thing in particular that I'd point to and be able to say 'this is why she's town'. No exonerating interactions with the wolves but nothing damning either.

---

tl;dr

I strongly suspect that there's only one scumteam and that GGG is its final member. If not him, originalchris would be the next place to look. Whatever you do, never lynch TellTaleHeart or droog. Don't listen to anything DGB said after her self-vote.

Vote: DrippingGoofball

[ChannelDelibird]

You're quite right about the Watcher thing, of course. Blame getting to the 50th page at midnight. Naomi is, obviously, town.

GGG - not knowing that DGB was scum until I got to the end of my read (though I would have instalynched her for her AWA read if Naomi hadn't caught her), my notes are only drawing links to the flipped scum. I will look at DGB connections Tomorrow and see if that changes things.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: Originalchris

Will do a little extra reading re: DGB of the early game soon but GGG's posts above make me sufficiently happy to start here Today.

[ChannelDelibird]

Do you think Riddleton would have faked a dayvig on his scumbuddy?

[ChannelDelibird]

Though we won't see a crosskill if there really are two scum factions, I continue to feel that, given our strong position, we should continue to proceed as if we are looking for a single remaining wolf buddy. It should be more productive to scumhunt that way.

GGG, I read your TTH case and I don't hate it but Riddleton's behaviour around the fake dayvig looks more to me like he's 'clearing' someone whom he already knows is town to make himself look credible. Though I'll admit that you've added more doubt to that read than I had before your case.

Originalchris looks very much like the obvious candidate here who doesn't have a particularly good reason pointing to him being town and has been generally a bit off.

[ChannelDelibird]

i think it would be more productive to look for the second scum faction
which means looking at anti-town, scummy players
which... is the same thing

why are we having this debate again?

I somewhat agree with you in principle, but if we're looking for a third werewolf then we can scumhunt interactions with the flipped wolves, which would have us looking for different things. And also I'm just annoyed by people paying attention to anything that DGB said after being exposed.

[ChannelDelibird]

Apologies for absence. My head's really not been on mafia at all for the past few days. I've still got a bunch of stuff that I have to do today and I'm probably not going to have time to catch up on this one until either tomorrow or Sunday, though I remain happy that OriginalChris is an acceptable lynch.

Re: Gunsmith; that's a fair point that I somewhat overlooked on first read-through, though I still wouldn't be shocked if was used as some kind of red herring to make us suspect a second faction that doesn't exist. I'm certainly more open-minded about it than before, however. A second faction would put at least Naomi and TTH back on the table, and

possibly

crazypianist but I wouldn't want to go there particularly soon.

There's going to be a fair amount of travelling for me over the Christmas period, starting this weekend, but I'll have time in between.