Open 31 - Yoguraimee C9 (Game Over!) before 470

[mneme]

d6 = 229167306
Hey, Vend.

[mneme]

vote: Yougurt

(random).

[mneme]

xyzzy has a good point about Khelvaster, who was caught out with a craplogic attack.

Bandwagon != scummy

In fact, frequently, bandwagonning is the opposite of scummy.

It -is- true that people who joke about being scum (or scummy) have a higher than average tendency to be scum than the average. But saying "I'm just bandwagoning" has nothing in common with saying "ha hah, only scum" (or whatever)

[mneme]

Which you then backed up by invoking "the good folk on scumchat."

That was a piece of advice imparted upon me by the good denizens of scumchat. ...

I call bullpellets. Advice misapplied jokingly is still misapplied. And scummy behavior as "joke" is still scummy.

unvote
vote: Khelvaster

[mneme]

xyz: yes, we can.

[mneme]

The "I play like crap" defense isn't actually a defense.

[mneme]

craplogic is never non-scummy. Even in "random" votes. Total nonsense is often acceptable in random votes, but that's different.

I don't think xyz pulling the "are you scum?" card says anything at all about yogurt's aligntment. Or xyz's, though his play isn't great as a whole.

[mneme]

Also here. Nothing's happened since my last post. O..o

[mneme]

(oog, mostly) The place for talk with other scummers out of game is in the various non-game threads. The problem is...once you get roles and are in a game situation, everything you do is effectively part of the game.

(/oog)

I consider J-Man's story entirely plausible for a fresh-off-the-boat newbie error -- much more likley than the idea of claiming cop first thing as scum. Is it a mistake? Sure, though a single cop coming out in a two-cop game with a gaurunteed doc is actually more sensible than you might think.

I don't think the other cop should claim -- nor do I want to know who J-man intends to investigate tonight.

I do not want to lynch J-man today -- the odds of him actually being a cop are just too high.

[mneme]

I'm most interested in our two "he's a cop! (maybe). Lynch him!" players.

My vote on kelvaster's looking better all the time.

[mneme]

J-man: because it gives the mafia a good kill choice that isn't a known cop. Moreover, if you are scum, it gives you a good excuse for why you don't have to report results.

I'd rather have them shooting in the dark, really.

[mneme]

Also, this is an open setup. There are no sanity questions.

[mneme]

J-man: because it gives the mafia a good kill choice that isn't a known cop. Moreover, if you are scum, it gives you a good excuse for why you don't have to report results.

Son of a bitch I never thought......

Wait a minute, doesn't a cop investigation just turn back a innocent or guilty verdict?

Yes. But scumcops can still be caught by actually having to say whether people are guilty or innocent -- if they report truthfully, they are actually giving the town useful information that can be used to lynch their buddies; if they lie, a real cop can come out and claim inverted results and get them lynched without having to expose both cops.

By far, their best result is to have the people they "investigated" be DOA. But the odds of that happening aren't actually that high...unless they specify who they're going to investigate.

In that case, the odds are pretty high, even with a doc, and the good odds for the doc aren't great. And if they chose to investigate the doc...sadness.

There are very few setups where getting predeclarations from cops helps the town. Some, but very few.

[mneme]

And remember: this is an open setup. The cops are normal cops, the doc is a normal doc, the two scum are normal scum. All out there in the open.

[mneme]

J-man, you shouldn't tell us your target; as has been mentioned, it's just an invitation for scum to kill off your target.

Exactly so.

The other cop/both cops (depending on whether J-man is telling the truth) should target J-man.

No, he (or they) shouldn't.

J-Man has a pending investigation on him by proxy -- in that a lack of counter-claim at the right time clears him and believable counter-claims (or two cop claims) would doom him.

We get -much- more information from the other cop(s) investigating other people, and have much less risk of a cross-investigation, as we'd automatically get were they to both (assuming jman=scum) target J-man.

FOS: Sefer

for posting bad advice.

Vote: Khelvaster

for now, since he was the first to decide that voting an uncounterclaimed cop was a good idea.

I think Khel or Vendagoat are probably the lynch of the day.

[mneme]

No, he (or they) shouldn't.

Yes, he or they should.

It's more complicated than that -- if J-Man's town, there's a possibility of a scum coming out tomorrow claiming to have investigated him and found him guilty.

If he's scum, we lose one investigation to find out that he's guilty, but really, all the cops should come out tomorrow anyway, so if we lynch wrong today, we risk a 2 on 2 standoff. at L^L.

If he's town, lynching wrong puts us in the same situation -- 2 vs 2, L^L.

Either situation puts us in a 50% shot on day 2 after a wrong lynch -- is that the best we can get? (if the scum don't both counterclaim cop, things are more interesting).

If we lynch right, the other cop probably -should- investigate J-Man -- we know there aren't two alive mafia, so the other cop can clear J-Man by silence (or kill him by speaking up), giving us either a win or a cleared cop with one investigation and no need to reveal it until the doc dies or we enter L^L.

Can we do better than 50% (or cleared cop with 1 investigation, depending on whether there are counterclaims on day 2) for our L^L on day 2?

[mneme]

I don't know what to think of the Venda/Khel nonsense -- don't think much of either of them, honestly.

J-man's initial claim is (among other things) an attempt to control the doc, since with that claim, the doc should have at least a 50% chance of protecting J-Man (weighing odds of a protect vs odds of J-man getting killed and benefit of a protect vs harm of J-Man getting killed and benefit of J-Man surviving). J's whiny "please protect me" doesn't actually add much to that equasion.

Anyway, Sefer, thoughts on investigation strategy presuming a misylnch today? I do think you were correct assuming a scum lynch, having run the numbers further. (because in the J-Man==Scum case we're not "wasting" an investigation to prove he's scum twice; on the contrary we're winning the game by day 3, and in the other case we're getting a confirmed cop without exposing the other cop and with a minimum of investigation). I'm not so sure in the mislynch case, though, though it's possible that that's the best we can do.

[mneme]

unvote
vote: vendagoat

There are actually a small enough number of vanilla townies in this game that "vanilla townie" is a useful claim.

[mneme]

unvote

Forgot vend had 2 votes on him. Don't want to go back to khel -- I'm thinking either vend or xyz are most interesting.

[mneme]

J-Man: re khel and venda, yeah, pretty much.

[mneme]

Khel: vend was at 2 when you unvoted. He's at 1 now.

[mneme]

Sefer: we don't want -too- many claims -- as a mass claim would let the scum kill the doctor straight-off, then pick off the cops -- yet as a town we probably do better with at least one investigation before we let the doctor snuff it. Even a townie claim would let the scum 100% a doc or cop -- not ideal.

[mneme]

J-Man -- if you don't believe Khel, vote him -- lynching him doesn't actually give us that much. The reason I backed off after his claim is that -if- he's scum, he's given up a bit of his power by claiming townie and thus given up his ability to claim cop later.

I didn't say I didn't think Vend felt scummy -- he does. But I didn't want to put Vend at -1 without discussing it.

Sefer's actually not a bad lynch -- he's been very helpful, but hasn't really spent that much time trying to find scum, just dropping out analysis instead.

Khelvaster's contradictory behavior -- going from "this is a very good post" to "mneme is stragically lurking" -- is very disquieting. Not sure what to take of it happening right after I defended him.

[mneme]

Er...lynching Khel doesn't actually hurt us that much.

[mneme]

Khel: you've done one townie thing -- claiming townie, rather than false-claiming cop.

You also did several scummy things -- including pushing the lynch of a claimed cop, dueling with Vendagoat using craplogic, and finally attacking me using craplogic.

Apparently, you attacking people for slim to no reason is town. Anyone else doing so (for more reason) is scum.

I've been leaving you alone because I think you're making a (bad) attempt at scum-hunting, which has good odds of you being town.

But...you know, you might want to go after scum, rather than your current quasi-random approach.

[mneme]

Actually, going back to, you know, playing this game (rather than, say, a 7 person newbie with unknown roles), I'm wondering if the numbers don't favor a cop/not cop reveal on day 1.

Doing so would focus heat in the cops, but it would also force scum to make their false cop claims on day 1, when they can do less damage (and focus investigations on verifying them). It would also force the scum to chose between striking not-cops (thus having some chance of getting a doc, but also some chance of a townie) and sriking cops (thus having some chance of getting blocked).

In general? I think it would drastically increase the town's odds of winning the game, even with Khel's "I'm a townie" (rather than "I'm not a cop") claim.

[mneme]

Khel: I don't see where the 50% figures come from either.

Regardless, I do think that mass cop/notcop helps us a lot -- it makes it harder for the scum to safely target an (known or unknown) cop, and while it makes it easier for them to accurately target the doc, it also generates some claim patterns for us to look for scum in, thus making doc, lynch, and cop investigation more accurate. And it doesn't give them a 100% on the doc (it would have been better had you partial-claimed, not full-claimed, but we can't undo that damage) unless we lynch a non-scum townie who isn't you -- and if they have that much useful info, we proably do too.

xyz: I'd like it if scum would claim "scum" too, but sadly, we can't count on that. We can force them to commit on cop or not-cop today, though.

We've heard from xyz, sefer, and myself. Khel has given his opinion, but is irrelevant (since he's claimed) as is J-Man.

Thoughts on this from YB and Vendagoat? You guys have mostly been lying low.

[mneme]

I agree, a DAY1 Masscalim is bad. Jman already messed everything up by claiming, but If both cops claim(assuming Jman is the cop and not rolefishing scum) Then the scum got us.

FOS: YB

YB, can you defend this assertion?

Because, frankly, I don't think you can.

Oh, FWIW? I'm not a cop.

[mneme]

Oh, re Sefer/Khel: Sefer is correct. LAL -- town players should never lie, particularly about claims -- and this is a textbook example as to why. If I were a townie, I would never claim townie on day 1 -- I'd claim "not a cop". If I were a doc, I would never claim "townie" or "doc" on day 1 -- I'd claim "not a cop".

This is -why- the idea is not "mass claim" but "mass cop/notcop claim" -- because we -want- to expose our cops today (it decreases, rather than increasing, their risk tonight in most scenarios, and protecting the cop(s) is our best approach to winning), but we do -not- want to expose our doc.

[mneme]

xyzzy: I've done so.

The only objectors that matter are vendagoat and yb, and I figure there are good odds that one or both are scum.

So if you and sefer make cop/notcop claims, we've got a nice solid model to work from.

[mneme]

Excellent. We now have two cop claims and three notcop claims.

Don't want to end the day without allowing for counterclaims by the unclaimed people, but while we're waiting...

vote: YogurtBandit

If you're not a cop, and you're not willing to give up your ability to claim cop later...

[mneme]

(crosses with Vendagoat) Still pretty good.

I'm inclined to think that YB is scum, and that one of the claimed cops is also scum (obviously).

[mneme]

Vend: nah -- unless we have four claimed cops (ie, unless YB also claims to be a cop), we should not lynch a claimed cop today (with three claimed cops, we're just way too likely to get a confirmed scum among them tomorrow).

And of the claimants and possible claimants, I think YB is easily the most suspicious.

Basically -- if YB claims cop, we should lynch a claimed cop (close to 50% chance of winning the game today, plus a decent chance of winning it via lynches among the next two nights), and I think it should be YB.

If YB doesn't claim cop, we should not lynch a claimed cop today -- and I submit that YB is the scummiest non-cop (in that case) player at the moment.

[mneme]

Your banking on us not lynching a cop today and those cops investigate the other cops?

Yep.

Let's assume 3 claimed cops. One is scum.

If we lynch 1, we've got a 1/3 chance of getting a scum, and a 2/3 chance of getting a cop.

If we get a scum, yay! But that's only a 1/3 chance.

If we get a cop, we have to repeat the exercise tomorrow, with a 50% chance of just losing, and no useful cop investigations unless we guess right. So 1/3 chance of insta-loss (2/3 of lynching a cop * 1/2 chance of losing the LoL bet), 1/3 chance of a likely win, and a lot of murky odds in between.

By contrast, if we lynch a non-cop, and the cops investigate one another (note that any cop investigation is just fine; they can investigate randomly -- because an innocent on one means the other is guilty, etc), if a cop doesn't die, we find out who the scum is. If the scum target the cop, though, they've got a 1/3 chance of missing their kill (which gives us two living cops for day 3), and even if they -kill- a cop, that means they didn't winnow down the doctor -- and we've -still- got a 50% chance of lynching a scum on day 2.

If both scum claim cop on day 1, we've got a very different set of probabilities -- but those can wait (and be debated) after we find out what YB is claiming.

[mneme]

Vend: the true odds (assuming no misplay by the scum or the doc) of lynching the doc is 0 -- thus, the odds of lynching scum randomly among the non-cops is one in 3 -- the same as that among the cops (but without a chance of killing a cop).

I wrote a post doing the math on it. But since it involved describing the various possible misplays by scum, I don't think I'll post it without a good reason (I mailed it to myself instead). Why shouldn't the scum do their own homework?

(the simple answer is that if we start running the doc up, the doc should claim. I'm not going to post the various possible scum tactics involved here, because, as I mention above, doing so helps the scum more than it helps the town).

And anyway, this all assumes YB doesn't claim cop. If he does, the game changes. A lot.

[mneme]

Vend: the true odds (assuming no misplay by the scum or the doc) of lynching the doc is 0 -- thus, the odds of lynching scum randomly among the non-cops is one in 3 -- the same as that among the cops (but without a chance of killing a cop).

How are the odds of lynching the doc contingent on a misplay by the scum at all? Also, wouldn't the unclaimed person who was scum claim doc to avoid a lynch?

If you don't know, I see no reason to tell you.

That is known as "helping the scum".

This is very, very suspicious. You are sounding way too much like scum.

Nah. I'm just a much more experienced player than you are.

In general, openness is good. But also, in general, in-game openness should be limited to things that can help the town, and should specifically avoid things that will help scum.

So when you think of a great analsysis that describes exactly what the scum should do, and how they can affect their odds of winning, and all that...you should then sit on it and not post it. Because if the scum -haven't- done your math, or have tried it but made some mistakes, then you may be able to use it to hang them later -- but there's no reason to help them.

And why exactly wouldn't the doc claim here? I am a 3-month-old player, and I can tell you why (barring any extreme stupidity) YB definitely won't claim cop,

Simply? You'd be wrong.

Possiblities:

YB is a cop. YB should claim cop.
YB is a non-cop townie: YB should -not- claim cop.
YB is scum: it's complicated. I see no reason to give YB advice here.

But the question of whether, -if- YB is scum (which you seem to be taking as a given) he should claim cop is not really all that simple.

why we definitely won't lynch a doc today, and (as a corrolary of these two) why there will definitely be 3 townie claims, 3 cop claims, and a doc claim if we massclaim, something which seems almost certain to happen.

Um, no.

We will not have a doc claim if we run up a townie.

We will not have a doc claim if we run up a scum and he decides not to gambit a doc claim figuring on WIFOM gambit instead (ie, if scum will always false-claim doc, then scum should not claim doc).

We will not have a doc claim if we get four cop claims -- at that point, there's no reason for the doc to claim, nor will there be.

Unvote, Vote: Muerrto

Who's that?

If YB isn't scum, I'm guessing you are, actually -- your play has been wild, random, and not actually useful for catching scum, moreover, you argued against a tactic that has drastically improved our odds. But newb is at least as likely, and unlike YB, you comitted, which is significant.

J-man investigates xyzzy, who investigates Vendagoat, who investigates J-man

No. It doesn't matter who xyzzy, vend, and j-man investigate, as long as they investigate cops.

A single investigation will give us two innocent and one guilty. The two cops who agree on real cops. The one who disagrees is scum.

And...your "trap" on xyzzy? feels more like scum backpeddaling to me.

[mneme]

Mod Note:

Muerrto is not a secret player.

*laugh*

[mneme]

Vendagoat: Sefer is playing correctly, at least from the perspective of not making an instalose vote.

Khel claimed townie. If sefer is a townie, sefer knows that I'm the doc (I am. Yay, I've just been outed -- or maybe Khel really is a townie and I was outed yesterday) and that therefore, Khel is scum.

If sefer is a scum, sefer knows that khel is a townie, and that therefore I'm the doc.

Either way, Sefer's vote cannot cause Sefer to lose via a quicklynch.

That said, lynching a townie is the wrong play today.

If we lynch a townie, that's a 50% shot, and we then have to make the right guess (after I get killed tonight) on which "cop" to lynch even if we guess right -- a 25% shot to win (from my perspective, as the only confirmed non-scum).

If we lynch a "cop", we either lose (lynch the real cop), or win (lynch the scumcop, the real cop investigates a "townie" while I get my ass killed protecting him, lynch the remaining scum the next day).

Therefore, we must lynch a "cop" today or we're in L^L*2. Play correctly (I intend to) and we're in L^W.

Vend, J-man -- convince me. Sefer, Khel, who of our "cops" do you find more believable and why?

Oh, I protected J-man last night.

[mneme]

This is awful.

Both "cops" have made significant errors over the course of the game. For that matter, both seem to have not read their PMs.

Vendagoat has been very fake today -- but J-Man hasn't even been here.

If Khel is scum, he's a bus-o-matic. OTOH, both of the "townies" have had serious votes on or from both the "cops" over the course of the game.

All that said, I'm inclined to think J-Man is scum. If Vendagoat is scum, he's scum with Sefer (he's tried to lynch Khel, and I don't think it was a bus), and Sefer's the player I'd most guess -not- to be scum. If I lose, so be it. And Vendagoat is right that J-Man is much more experienced than he's presented here.

vote: J-Man

[mneme]

Nicely done, scum.

The double-bus is what fooled me -- I'd done an earlier analysis and decided that the pairings were vendagoat and khel vs sefer and J-man (with vend and khel being by far the less helpful -- and therefore, less scummy -- pairing). But after khel bussed vend, I did a second read and realized that vendagoat had made a near-lynching vote on khel, which made that pairing less likely.

[mneme]

Oh, and thanks, erg0. Re mini theme: run King Arthur! Or Pac Man! or D&D!

(I've got a truckload of themes I've been mulling over for a while but haven't gotten around to run. Pac Man's not on that list, that's just teh silly).

[mneme]

Sefer, Khel -- if we're talking Day 1 claims, once we had claims from everyone, there was one scum, one doc, and one actual townie hiding among khel, Yogurt, and myself. Khel, having claimed townie, had a 50% chance to be townie, and a 50% chance to be scum, based on straight odds (only one scum hiding in that set, so 1/2 odds).

If he was scum, Yogurt and I had a 0% chance of being scum.

If he wasn't, we each had a 50% chance of being scum.

Therefore, you're right on straight odds from your perspective (and the same was true of the rest -- I'd have been very happy with a Khel lynch on day 1 for this reason and that it would have made me less exposed, but Yogurt's excellent impersonation of scum pushed me in the wrong direction).

Also, re odds -- you're ignoring the odds of finding scum on the day 1 lynch (automatic win for town), and the odds of wagonning the doctor on day 1 (scum should counterclaim, because it gives them a 50% chance of a win, as the sac kills the doctor [probably], a cop (that night), and leaves the town looking at a false cop, a real cop, and a townie in the showdown.

This means the odds of the town lynching any of the "non-cops" is equal, all things being equal -- one of these results in a scum dying day 2, but that should still happen.

hmm. so...

1/4 chance of win for town on day 1 (lynch a scum; scum are either revealed by the cops or kill a cop and let the town just go to "lynch all cops" as a 100% wining strategy).
+ 1/8 chance of win for town on day 3 (showdown after outing/counterclaiming the doc. Probably the town's worst possibility given good play, but low-ish odds.
+ 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/6 chance of win for town on night 1 (lynch a townie, scum fail to kill a cop).
+ 1/2 * 2/3 * 1/2 = 1/6 chance of a town win on day 2 (lynch a townie, scum kill a cop, lynch a scumcop, win).

By my calculation, that's 17/24 chance of a town win by straight odds. (slightly worse than a 3/4 chance). But I may be missing some corner cases.