Mini 1651: One Flew Over The Monkey's Nest(Scum Wins!)

[Bellaphant]

Hi all! Wow, I have a lot of catching up to do: anyone wanna summarise? I'm gonna read through and make some notes, probably contribute something sensible tomorrow.

[Bellaphant]

Okay, so, catching up:

Wow, day one was....busy. The shot with no claim,a no lynch AND a mod kill? o.0
IL had a pretty odd day 1, but they weren't the only one: all three dead people were town, and they also had kinda terrible day 1s.


However, I've read through, and made some notes. Currently, my reads are:

Town:

Elyse: asking questions, moving things on, pursing reads.
Piss: Even though some of his posts are short and a bit...direct, they feel genuine

Neutral:
Boon: liked his entrance/his slot before, less certain as the days've gone on.
Eek: some good content, quite quiet though, is asking questions
Aqua: I'm totes 50/50 on this slot. Some elements I really like, some are odd: he seems quite aggressive when pushed, but has put some good cases together

Scum:
Myk: this is mostly gut, I don't like a lot of his pushes.
Metal: opinion seems divided on him, and I can tell why. Not sure what to make of this one.
Dude: not much content, can't get a handle on this slot.
Tool: seems to be doing a lot of active lurking. Don't like the continued push on Eek.

Questions, thoughts, comments Come at me.

[Bellaphant]

And Mykonian wanders in to... throw crap at someone scumreading Metal! Suprise, suprise!

it's not even throwing crap in this case. It's a post with a couple of reads with short sentences accompanied.

Metal is under scum, it has the observation that bella doesn't understand how others aren't scumreading him, then she doesn't know what to make of him.

The only read of her own in there is the implied one that metal is obvious scum.

It's the one read I want to ask after, yes. The rest I get more or less even if I disagree.


I mean, I read the post after now, I am not surprised that people would be scumreading me. I'm dropping half thoughts and reads into the thread, some of my opinions run contrary to the town, I'm a stubborn guy by nature. That stuff gets gut scum reads. Which is what bella posts about, which is what a couple other people in the game have alluded to.

That happens every game. The difference per game is how people deal with it.

This seems ridiculously self aware, but also put the focus for his behaviour onto other people, leaving him with an easy out for any scum!behaviour, while also offering token support for my post.

Do know that you replaced IL...?


Did you miss the part about his claim?

Yes? Day 1 looks really messy for a bunch of people, who all ended up flipping town. Just saying, odd day 1 play in this context doesn't equal scum. Also, no, sorry, I was typing up my notes and forgot that bit.

Actually, I can say that better in more words.

Aeronaut wasn't widely suspected. Boon is quickly moving to the position of default lynch. The only thing that changed to that slot is that a new player came in who doesn't post. The whole case is "he doesn't post". It's shortsighted to judge that slot on just boon, which I guess is a better word than "stupid", but then, language isn't my strongest side.

On top of that it doesn't smell like scum lurking. If that's what's going on, the dude, tool, lemons are players that come to mind as options.

Support of Boon, while implying that a 'default' lynch is bad. Then mentions my slot, who was being replaced, as lurkers. Don't like this.

Well, you've amused me a little, Boonskiies, but unless someone else in this game takes you seriously and I have to disillusion them, pointing out your fabrications is a waste of my time. Suffice it to say that Mykonian being scum is the only reason he could have to townread you. (As opposed to try to put off your lynch for a later day, which he could conceivably do as a townie.)

The replacement and I haven't talked much yet. That, and her read, will change.

This whole back and forth has raised my town-read of Aqua and made me re-think Boon's null read.

Boon? I'm no expert in reading boonz, which is why Im not voting him, but pressure will get him posting. Like others, I feel there is more to be gained going after other scum, and PoEing him.

Just an aside, but I really like this post.

Aqua: why you switching from me to mykonian?

But I am going to VOTE: mykonian becasue I find his hard defense of me to be off and his defense of Boon is just dumb.

I like this question, and his read on Boon seems consistent. Feeling a bit (but not much) better about Metal.

Dude's 1554 makes me suspicious.

Thanks for putting up with me catching up. Feel like I'm a bit more on top of things. I'd like a Vote Count before I put a vote anywhere.

[Bellaphant]

Is anyone else interested/amused/concerned by the Echo effect of Aqua/Elyse/Tool about Boon's case? o.0


@TheDude: his behaviour towards Tally, wanting to lynch eek for reasons that look more like policy (and then backing away from this, his weirdness around metal, the fact he's been back and forth about you. I dunno, I'm not feeling like any of these *stick*?

Also, I can't see town motivation, especially for metal. I'm also struggling to get a coherent picture on your thoughts, maybe because you make a lot of short statements, and ask a lot of questions: it's an easy way for scum to gain information, without giving much. This might be paranoia, though.

[Bellaphant]

Bell,

What don't you like about Myk backing away from Eek? It seems like you should be okay with that.

What do you mean by weirdness around metal?

Because, as I said, it feels like he's looking around, zero-ing in on someone and then moving off if he can't get much going. It's not a comment on Eek, it's a comment on the 'unstickiness' of his reads.

Myk seems to be defending metal; now, metal may or may not be scum, but either way he's not obv!town, as evidenced by points raised in Elyse's 1446 and his defense/counter in 1448. Regardless of Elyse's alignment (though I'm currently town-reading her), there is some suspicious activity and I can't see the advantage of town!Myk defending this.

I'm not sure what you mean here.

The three of you used very similar wording, one after the other, to explain something. It might mean nothing, it was just really..noticeable to me.

Deadline is Monday? I won't be available Monday but I will be able to check in until then. I still prefer a metal lynch but if it doesn't look like it's happening I will move my vote before deadline. The last thing we need is another NL.

I do implore everyone to ISO me for my metal case and see what you think because I really think he's scum and I'm afraid that all of the opposition to his lynch means I'm right. The speed of the Myko wagon is certainly frightening but Aquanim's point regarding his Boon read is very strong. I understand the reasons to lynch him but it still makes me worry a little bit.

If a Metal lynch doesn't look like it's happening, would you be willing to move your vote? 'Course, now with the deadline extension, you might have more time to convince people.

[Bellaphant]

@boon, is my slot skill scum for you? Thoughts on metal?

@eek, hi! Someone I know.

I dunno why metal is being odd around me. @metal, why no vote for my predecessor?

Ugh, my vote needs to go somewhere. So, this is intent to hammer Myk tomorrow (deadline approaching) or, metal.

[Bellaphant]

VOTE: myk

Nothing has convinced me otherwise and we need a lynch. That's l~1, right?

[Bellaphant]

Yeah, tool is correct about my vote. There was a considerable 'WE CAN'T NO LYNCH' vibe going, and my time-zone often means I hit deadlines overnight.

eek's sudden push of me, when his vote came after mine sets my alarm bells ringing.

Elyse, can you, like, bullet point your metal case for me? I agree with what you say about the wagons, but day 1 did seem a bit of a mess...

[Bellaphant]

haha, sorry. Thanks!

[Bellaphant]

Bellaphant, who do you want to lynch next?

Eektor.

And when Elyse or myself is dead tomorrow you'll have learned nothing of worth. Are you seriously considering lynching either of us?

There is, of course, the outside possibility that you and Elyse are scum together and you are playing a really good game. Posts like this make me wonder

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

What makes you say this?

Because their reasons for joining the wagon is more suspect than the other 2 (you and metal).

This doesn't cut it.

I like this. My read on TDA is still not solid either way, but I like this. Also, sorry, I was an idiot and got muddled about the votes. It's also interesting that you picked me up on this: seems more town-motivated.

VOTE: Metalcyanide

Remember that time metal townread me after his "reaction test" and I continued to push him and all of a sudden I'm scum?

Yeah same.

I've made my case abundantly clear since the end of day 1 and metal continues to scrape by. I would like to see TDA try to justify a townread on him. Your townread on TDA is interesting to me.

Metal isn't scummy for changing his read, it's because of his reasons. He could have used the same reasons yesterday but he townread me yesterday. The only town player I have pushed is Taly and if he's arguing that I'm pushing him and he's town (which he's not), then why didn't he use that as a reason yesterday? He's desperate.

This makes sense to me. Elyse, talk to me about TDA?

[Bellaphant]

I'm prod dodging for today

[Bellaphant]

I think town has giving up this game anyways. So everyone just vote for you who you want then I think we can try to figure it out from there after everyone casts a vote

That's a pretty bad idea, from a town perspective. if everyon just votes for who they likes scum quite possibly get an easy hammer on a townie to close out the game.

I really want to believe that if you were town you'd have thought that through. After the Mykonian flip I no longer have a lower bound on the incompetence of townies, but...

@Aqua, is this a comment on remaining town, or myk?

TDA is someone I've had trouble reading. I generally like his content, but his style of posting a bunch of times in a row to catch up and never really going back and forth with people makes it hard to read him. There is a small amount of paranoia that he and Aqua are scum together and are buddying me and feeding into my metal read but I don't think that's the case. Aqua's townread of him is just a little unnerving because I find it hard to read TDA, but maybe it's just me. And like Aqua said, with the way this town has been playing I wouldn't even be mad about it.

TDA is someone I would probably freak out about in LyLo but would be town, most likely.

I think scum is probably metal/eektor/Boon or metal/eektor/Bella. I don't see tool scum at all and Aqua is 99% town. If I had to guess and we made it to 3p LyLo, it would be some combination of {Bella, Boon, eektor, TDA} and all I'll say about that is I'll be glad to be dead lol.

Thanks for this. I've liked his posting a lot more since I asked you this. I'm actaully wondering if your first list is the correct one, as eek and boon I can see as scum.

@Elyse

: This is probably going to be hard, but I'm going to ask you to reassess toolenduso. I townread him too for a long time... but I've begun to not like the way he's kind of tagged on the end of a lot of wagons after they gathered momentum (Taly and Metal day 1, Metal day 2). Try to disassociate it from your Metal read. I don't know if he's scum, but I'm not really townreading him much any more.

I'll see what I can do about explaining my TDA read, but that's going to be difficult as well.
.

I like tool's response to this is really good, and I'm thinking that tool is town. I think boon's points about him were opportunistic, and if that was tVs I know who I'd be lookinh at.

I just re-read the exchange between Elyse and Metal again. Here is the problem that I have with metal scum.

If Metal is scum, that means that he fabricated a case on Elyse, when he saw that it wasn't going well for him, since it was wrong, he stopped, backtracked and claimed to have made up the case. Then knowing that is how things would go if he pushed Elyse, he decided to vote her today.

I don't think that this makes any sense from scum when he could have simply stuck with his town read on her.

But how does this mkae sense as town, either?

Anyway, one of the reasons I'm happier town-reading tool is that he is again highlighting eektor as being scummy. While his push on eek rung alarm bells for me when I replaced in, I think he's got some good points. Also, I've just won a scum-game with eek as my buddy in the newbie queue where my activity/posts were nothing like this, but he's still scum-reading me? I'd be happy with a metal/eek lynch today.

(If Aqua and Elyse are scum together, they have done a brilliant job and we should probably give up )

[Bellaphant]

It's a comment about Mykonian. I don't blame townies for sheeping the case on him.

Would you be happy with lynching Boonskiies today?

Okay, thanks. And, yes. Especially after his Elyse naked vote.

So you are town reading tool just because he thinks I'm scummy. I guess you are town reading everyone in this game as they all have me as one of their main scum suspects.

Then you say I must be scum because you are acting different than in the newbie game we were scum together and I'm still scum-reading you? Well, shouldn't you be acting different in this game if you were scum when I knew you were scum in the other game?

I have been scum reading IL from the beginning. The reason why I backed off was you replaced and I wanted to see what you did. You haven't done anything to convince me that you are town. Rereading the beginning of the game is confirming my suspicion that IL was scum and you replacing in the slot hasn't changed that. Also, with tool tunneling me these past 2 days, we are going to lose if we no lynch today.

VOTE: Belaphant

My read on Tool isn't just based on that: the case boon pushed on him was terrible, I've re-read his interactions with Taly, which look way too...invested for him to be scum, and I like his considered approach to new situations: he looks like he's legit trying to sort the game.

Yes, a fair few people on that wagon flipped town. I also have to consider the possibility that you're scum with Metal and started the counterwagon on the Insidious slot, though I suppose you don't have to. Why do you not consider the possibility that if Metal and Bellaphant are scum, the remaining scum bussed Metal instead of Insidious?

Looking at how the wagons formed, the former makes sense. Also, looking at the wagons, I can understand Elyse's frustration about not getting metal lynched.

VOTE: Elyse

Why??

I think you missed the last question: if Bellaphant and Metal are both scum, you appear to have only considered the possibility that the third scum was on the InsidiousLemons wagon (hence concluding that it's TDA). What makes you think that the third mafia would not be on the Metal wagon day 1 instead?

@eek, can you explain, other than the above, other reasons that TDA is scum?

[Bellaphant]

Aqua asked me about lynching boon, and yeah, I'd be happy to do that. More @eek later.

[Bellaphant]

@eek, how did you miss boon's case? People reacted to it: I even mentioned, at the time, that aqua/elyse/tool had the same response to it, which was 'he's gone through tool's iso trying to find reasons to hang a case together.' It made me concerned about the echo effect, now I'm more convinced they were just right.

[Bellaphant]

Stupid question: could boon's weak/odd case on tool, paired with tools kinda non reaction to it, mean instead of one of them being town, as I thought, they are both scum? I'm gonna have to Re-read it. If that is the case, eek maynt be scum. @aqua, the last two pairs in the post above: are they necessarily scum v town, or just not scum together?

[Bellaphant]

@elyse, I'm not 'aligning my reads', I'm just struggling with this particular game. But, you and Aqua are correct, turtle-ing into myself when under pressure is a shitty move as town, so! Let's get some thoughts down.

@boon, what changed on your aqua read between 1579, 1612 and 1814? Especially interesting as you called him for pushing a mis-lynch, and then...went silent about it.

@aqua, in post 1836 you said 'one of TheDudeAbides and Toolenduso is mafia.' If you still believe this, I think one of these is a better vote than me.

It's also interesting that (on some level) boon/tool have made comments that indicate they think I'm town. Now, I'd argue I'm more obv!town than, say, metal, but tool taking apart eek's initial push on me is questionable.

I've got some real cognitive dissonance about this. Eek is pushing for my lynch pretty hard, and his initial move out of the day of the gate seemed planned. However, it is also a hang-over from my predecessor. I disagree with him about my meta, but I do understand where he is coming from. If,

if

eek is town, tool is scum.

Metal's naked vote is really weird, and his answer to Aqua is worse.

(I've re-read the game to make sure I'm following. Amused that my gut was happy with a tool-scum!read on my first readthrough).