Open 31 - Yoguraimee C9 (Game Over!) before 470

[Sefer]

Hey, all.

Unvote

, because I have an idea to discuss and I'd like to make sure it's given consideration before we end the day.
The cop claim is odd and unprovoked, but I've seen newbies do that as cops before. Here, I think we can use it; I think we should have everyone claim either "cop" or "not-cop." This will out our two cops to the scum, but it also means that we'll either have two confirmed cops (that scum can't really attack until the doctor's dead without risking wasting a chance at a kill) or we'll have forced one or both scum into a claim and narrowed which players can possibly be scum. Either of these seem like a good outcome to me.
No one else should claim until we have some kind of consensus on this, and I'm happy to claim first if we reach that consensus since it was my idea. Thoughts?

[Sefer]

i don't know how else to say this but no dont follow Sefer's idea that is stupid absolutly retarded that we should all claim either cop or not cop.

This is certainly a compelling argument!
I'm trying to fix your mistake in outing yourself. We either end up with two confirmed cops that scum would be risking a lot to attack (due to doc protection) or we force the scum to claim as cops themselves, reducing the number of players we need to focus on. In that you already outed yourself, this seems the best way to actually have town gain something from your move. It's certainly better than killing you to "put [you] out of [your] newbie error" if you're actually a cop.

[Sefer]

J-man, you shouldn't tell us your target; as has been mentioned, it's just an invitation for scum to kill off your target.
The other cop/both cops (depending on whether J-man is telling the truth) should target J-man. If J-man's telling the truth, we'll get confirmation of that and won't have a chance of the other cop cross-investigating with J-man. If he's lying, we'll end up with both cops investigating J-man, but we'll get scum (and only one real cop will need to out himself to get the scum).
xyzzy, you never did say why you thought Yogurt's QFT was scummy. In that I don't think he's going to answer the question the way you want him to at this point, care to share?

Vote: Khelvaster

for now, since he was the first to decide that voting an uncounterclaimed cop was a good idea.

[Sefer]

Yes, and if he'd claimed a result for night 0, you'd have a reason to string him up. He's hardly the first cop to send in an investigation when he didn't have one night 0.
Maybe the thing I should be more worried about, of course, is why Vendagoat is still voting him. You still think he's a good lynch choice today?

[Sefer]

The other cop/both cops (depending on whether J-man is telling the truth) should target J-man.

No, he (or they) shouldn't.

Yes, he or they should.

J-Man has a pending investigation on him by proxy -- in that a lack of counter-claim at the right time clears him and believable counter-claims (or two cop claims) would doom him.

No. If he's really a cop, he will almost certainly be counter claimed when the other cop comes out (that is, the scum have little choice but to have one or both of their number claim cop as soon as anyone else claims cop, and may claim before that in an effort to look like a real cop). An investigation on him solves this problem and tells us we can trust the results of whatever investigation he gets tonight, which is much more useful than going into tomorrow and having three cop claims and not being able to trust any of them.

We get -much- more information from the other cop(s) investigating other people, and have much less risk of a cross-investigation, as we'd automatically get were they to both (assuming jman=scum) target J-man.

No. Any cross investigation we get leads to the immediate apprehension of scum. If he's not scum, we'll know we can trust his investigation. The lack of a guilty claim would indicate two investigations we could trust absolutely: the one clearing J-man (whose player need not claim) and the one J-man makes. Without it we have J-man's investigation (which we can't trust), plus two or more other investigations if others decide to claim. In that we can't lynch more than one person a day, it doesn't matter if we cross investigate J-man before we lynch him; we'll have another set of night actions to use t out his partner.

FOS: Sefer

for posting bad advice.

FOS: mneme

for ignoring excellent advice- or at least not thinking it through.

Vote: Khelvaster

for now, since he was the first to decide that voting an uncounterclaimed cop was a good idea.

I think Khel or Vendagoat are probably the lynch of the day.

Yeah, maybe.

Unvote

because I don't want the day to end until we have an agreement on the cop thing (it will work, but only if we agree so we know any cops will have investigated).
Khel, was that an actual Townie claim you made earlier? If not, you've been at lynch-1 and you'll probably be back soon; claiming would be good.

[Sefer]

Also, I'll be at Comic-con from the evening of the 25th through the 29th. I should be able to post tomorrow and the 25th, but from then on I'll be at very low access.

[Sefer]

Anyway, Sefer, thoughts on investigation strategy presuming a misylnch today? I do think you were correct assuming a scum lynch, having run the numbers further. (because in the J-Man==Scum case we're not "wasting" an investigation to prove he's scum twice; on the contrary we're winning the game by day 3, and in the other case we're getting a confirmed cop without exposing the other cop and with a minimum of investigation). I'm not so sure in the mislynch case, though, though it's possible that that's the best we can do.

In this post, situation A is J-Man is scum, B is J-Man is a cop (I feel B is most likely at this point, for future reference; evidance can obviously change that later).
It works out as long as a cop doesn't die; the only way a mislynch changes things is if we mislynch a cop (in which case A means that the other cop should counter claim J-Man and B means scum is likely to fake counter claim J-Man; in A the other cop should certainly investigate someone else because he'll know J-Man is scum) or the doc (in which case J-Man will likely be dead by morning; the other cop can consider investigating J-Man in case he survives, so that scum can't avoid killing him in order to throw suspicion on him). If we mislynch a townie the only thing that changes is that (assuming B) scum has a 1/3 chance of killing a cop at night rather than a 1/4 chance or (assuming A) a 2/4 rather than 2/5 chance; losing a cop at night is just as bad as mislynching a cop and will lead to the same situation: two cop claims, one actual cop and one real cop. If that occurs, though, the only way we'll have wasted an investigation is in A, when the surviving cop will know J-Man was scum as soon as the death comes in.
Those odds above are altered somewhat depending on whether Khel is scum; if he's not then scum know not to target him and scum have a better chance of offing a power role.

I'm not big on the "I will vote X person in 24 hours" thing. In particular, one should never do that as a hammer; with the roles as limited as they are we can get a lot of information from a claim. I'm tempted to claim myself at the moment (this doesn't give any info away, as anything I claim- town, doc, cop- would fill the last slot for that type, forcing scum to decide whether they're fake counter claiming in that category or, if scum is already fake claiming in that category, force a town member to counter them), but no one else liked the idea when I brought it up for just cops, so I doubt they'll like it now.

On the Khel-Venda situation: I've seen new players have long, pointless arguments like that before (and have engaged in such myself). I really doubt they're scum distancing; scum usually don't get up the gumption to have that pointless of an arugment with each other. The one I'm interested in now is Yogurt, who has barely posted in this game. Checking his recent posts, this isn't normal for him; he's made a ton of posts in other games today alone.

FoS: Yogurt

, for lurking when it's not his normal strategy; this would be a vote but I'm about to be gone for a few days and don't want to leave a vote when I can't change it.

[Sefer]

J-man, it's an open setup. We know every role in the game. There are exactly two normal, no power role mafia; there are exactly two cops; there is exactly one doc; there are exactly two townies. There are no secrets regarding what roles are around. Stop tryng to imply that we don't know cops' sanity or that mafia may have power roles.
I've liked mneme's cop/no cop claim idea since I suggested it. Scum will know who the two cops are, but I doubt they'll try to kill them while the doc's alive (as there's too much of a chance of missing out on a kill, which would be really bad for them in this game). I'm still in favor of trying it; it lets us force scum to either claim cop or not without outing the doc so they still may need a couple of tries to get rid of the doc. We should take advantage of the setup and that's one good way to do it.

[Sefer]

Delaying the death of cops by one night is the entire purpose of a doc in this scenario; we don't need him to survive past night one. As long as we don't have a cop killed night one we can have two investigations tonight and one the next night (assuming the doctor is, indeed, killed tonight). Three investigations plus the setup limiting the possible claims should be all we need.
Would it have been better before anyone had claimed townie? Sure, we went from a 1/3 chance of the doc being killed in the claim cop/no-cop scenario to a 5/12 chance (1/2 chance of doc kill*1/2 chance of you actually being town +1/3 chance of doc kill*1/2 chance of you actually being scum), so our chances of keeping the doc alive through night one dropped by 1/12. If we'd done this before you'd claimed, it would have been better, but you guys didn't want to do it then. I'm interested that you decided to vote me rather than the person who brought the idea up again, though.

[Sefer]

50% was based on knowing that you must be either scum or a townie; there are two of each in this setup, so there's a 50/50 chance (2/4) of being either. It would only be 2/6 scum if you had a chance of being a doc or cop.

[Sefer]

That would be a really dumb move to make, in that if one of the townies claimed after, the second would be forced to claim as well, meaning one of the townies or the doc would almost certainly be lynched. I'm assuming you're not that dumb.

[Sefer]

Why can't we just agree that a cop/notcop claim is a supergood idea and GO THROUGH WITH IT?

Excellent notion. I'm not a cop.

[Sefer]

Ok, so cops: J-man, xyzzy, Vendagoat
Non-cops: mneme, Sefer, Khelvaster
Waiting on Yogurt
(The above is basically for my own reference because I know I'll forget later if I don't have something to refer back to)

Venda, there's a pretty easy way to get the scum with the investigations we have, but I want Yogurt to claim before I explain it.

[Sefer]

(And by claim, I do just mean cop or not cop, just to be clear)

[Sefer]

So now that we go the YB claim, we are looking for scum not in the cop claim crowd, correct?

Correct. And I currently think YB is the most likely scum in that crowd.

Vote: Yogurt

[Sefer]

Khelvaster is scum; I'm the other townie.
Just for the heck of it, cop results?

[Sefer]

Oh, and

Vote: Khelvaster

. We're at Lylo, so it's best not to vote until you're certain that someone is scum. I'm in that happy position.

[Sefer]

I find J-man more convincing; his actions go along with things I've seen newbies do in the past, and I'd be surprised if he could fake it that well from the scum side. Vendagoat's outburst (at the start of the day) seems pretty contrived, though I might think otherwise if someone can point me to another example of him acting like that.

Unvote

. mneme is right that the 50/50 shot from lynching a cop is better than the 25% shot from lynching town; I hadn't considered that. Also, at this point, we need all the innocents to vote together to make a lynch (since a correct lynch will lead to scum losing, I doubt any bussing will occur). Since mneme is confirmed innocent, we can't make a correct lynch without him. As such, he's in control right now; no one should vote until mneme makes a decision (well, the townies could vote each other, but it won't change anything, and the cops might as well vote each other now and get it over with, but no other votes should be placed until mneme has voted. No townies voting cops or vice versa, and no one voting mneme unless they really want to be strung up).

[Sefer]

I love how Seifer wants the scum to win by putting his vote on a townie (which there ought to be 3 claims for) and not on the nonscum cop.

Reread the first post. There are only two townies. One is dead, and the other is me. Therefore, I know you are scum.

[Sefer]

:/ Well, here goes nothing. If Vendagoat is the cop, remember to investigate Khel or me tonight.

[Sefer]

Vote: J-man

[Sefer]

I was pretty sure that Venda was scum, but there wasn't a lot I could do once mneme voted; I decided to just end it and hope I was wrong rather than wait and let Khel do it for me.

I'm kicking myself for not following statistics- once Khel claimed town I knew he had a 2/3 chance of being scum (since there were 2 scum and one other townie); I just kept looking at Yogurt's post history, saw how often he posted elsewhere and how rarely he posted here and thought the lurking must be a scum sign for him. Once Yogurt turned up town I was hoping my normal streak of being killed night 1 would continue, but scum decided to break it for me.

It's an interesting setup that more or less forces a mass claim day one, since anyone who's near lynch should claim and it won't take many claims to start being countered. One scum claiming town and one should always claim cop, as you guys did this game, gives maximum number of people that could be scum, which is probably the best strategy. The way we did day one, town automatically would win if the scum didn't kill a cop night one (this works so long as a cop isn't lynched), meaning if the doctor survives in addition to cops theres a 1/3 chance of the scum losing no matter what. If a cop does get killed N1, there's a 50/50 shot for either side to win (following mneme's excellent strategy of lynching one of the remaining cops). So scum actually have a high chance of losing in this setup; so long as a claimed townie is lynched, even if it isn't scum, scum lose 1/3 of the time N1 (from failing to kill a cop); 2/3 of the time they have a 50/50 shot, giving them a 2/3 chance of losing even if they aren't lynched D1. Congradulations, scum, for overcoming the odds.

Thanks for running it, Erg0; if you're looking for a theme I agree with mneme's notion of a D&D theme

[Sefer]

No, it's 2/3. I knew you were either scum or town, there were 2 scum and 1 town, so you had a 2/3 chance of being scum and a 1/3 chance of being a townie. That's from the perspective of another townie; as I explained in game, you had a 50/50 shot of being scum or town from an outside perspective (because you were either scum or town and there were 2 of each).