Mini-Normal 1713: Mystery Mansion Mafia (GAME OVER)

[ChannelDelibird]

Hello everyone. I should be all caught up at some point tonight.

[ChannelDelibird]

Lots of new faces for me in this game! Please note that my username is commonly abbreviated to CDB around these parts.

No current interest in lynching:

SilverWolf, MarioManiac, All Alone, Slandaar, absta101, Performer, Akarin, Wanderer (No particular order)

Would lynch:

GrayFox, Davsto (in that order)

Actively want to lynch:

Expedience

The Expedience thing feels fairly cut-and-dried. The bullet-points of why I want to lynch him:

• As demonstrated by All Alone here, a lot of Expedience's early posts were talking for the sake of being seen to talk, saying only things that were safe, more about what he thought
  wasn't
  there than trying to things that
  were
  . Looks like scum who knows that lurking is bad but is uncomfortable manufacturing content.
  
• When called on it, nitpicks the argument and, crucially, doesn't make an effort to be more proactive. At the end of this post (which has no immediate follow-up) the scope of Expedience's analysis of the game is no broader than when it started. It's as if Expedience only takes to heart the notion that town should not want to be suspected when it's his only feasible line of defence.
  
• "Perhaps you're right..." here is the kind of 'yes, you have a point, but' reflex typical of uncomfortable scum. Knows he's in the wrong on the argument, so recedes from it and tries to fight ground further away from the point.
  
• Good detective work from absta and All Alone, respectively, seems to show Expedience being caught retroactively explaining things and tying himself up in knots.

I have quite a lot of middlingly strong townreads, which is nice for this point of the game. Davsto's position on my 'would lynch' list is more due to his absence from that list than it is to outright scumminess. GrayFox is probably scum who just cannot get up for the challenge. If we have a vig, that's where they should aim Tonight.

I will probably elaborate on some of the townreads later but right now I'd rather just address the other major wagon (well, major-ish, I'm about to abandon my predecessor's position on it): MarioManiac seems prone to barking up the wrong tree with gusto but his commitment to trying as hard as he possibly can, particularly right after he came in to shake things up and see what happened, reads pretty town.

UNVOTE: MarioManiac
VOTE: Expedience

L-1.

[ChannelDelibird]

VOTE: GrayFox

[ChannelDelibird]

That's fine. I'm OK with seeing how this plays out.

[ChannelDelibird]

UNVOTE: GrayFox

Davsto, you haven't considered all the possibilities there. You could have been blocked.

[ChannelDelibird]

My instinct is that Davsto not even considering a world in which his cool vig shot gets blocked is probably a sign of him actually having that ability, and therefore being town.

[ChannelDelibird]

But, at any rate, GrayFox: let's talk about why you were so incredibly absent Yesterday that someone tried to vig you.

[ChannelDelibird]

But, at any rate, GrayFox: let's talk about why you were so incredibly absent Yesterday that someone tried to vig you.

I can't speak for others. Someone said he was a rolecop? How could he shoot me?

He explicitly claimed last page. Keep up, man.

[ChannelDelibird]

Wait, does this mean I still have my Shot or is it still lost?

That's a hypothetical question which you'd have to ask the mod in private. You may or may not get a clear answer. If I were modding, I'd say you lost the shot, but not every mod would make the same ruling.

[ChannelDelibird]

This is assuming that you were blocked, because the idea of a roleblocker is much more plausible to me than there being a mafia doctor (already an unusual role) targeting GrayFox of all people

[ChannelDelibird]

326

I know where you saw the word 'rolecop', I'm just saying read all the posts.

[ChannelDelibird]

This is assuming that you were blocked, because the idea of a roleblocker is much more plausible to me than there being a mafia doctor (already an unusual role) targeting GrayFox of all people

Mafia Doctor appears sometimes as a counter to a Vigilante.

And as to why they protected Grayfoxxxx, he had already been seen as a good target for a Vig kill (someone actually said it iirc), and if he were scum a Mafia Doctor would probably be inclined to protect him for being a likely target, and not wanting a fellow scum to die.

That's possible. I did recommend vigging GrayFox, of course, now that I remember it. Ha! Well.

In reality, I think I've only ever seen one Mafia Doctor in a normalish game on here, but it's possible. Blockers of either alignments are much more common, from anecdotal data.

[ChannelDelibird]

Anyway, let's calm down and think about this a bit. Whether or not Davsto's claim means anything towards GrayFox's alignment (right now, I don't feel like we can treat it as if it does), I still find GrayFox pretty suspicious for being a massive lurksack Yesterday, and his reactions over the last few minutes feel like he's trying to delay showing his hand, despite the fact that he's already claimed. I need to think it over a bit more but, GrayFox, you really need to talk about why that mythical analysis that you kept promising never came through while we were busy lynching town.

[ChannelDelibird]

What post do you think I'm not reading?

Well, I don't know why anyone who'd read Davsto's 322 (his explicit vig claim) and 326 in sequence would come out of it thinking that Davsto was claiming rolecop. One was Davsto claiming, and the other was Mario reacting to that claim by saying that what he thought was being hinted at (rolecop) wasn't actually the case. It reads really obviously to me, but if you were confused, that's fine. I don't think that this is as big a deal as the number of posts that we're taking to communicate this would imply.

[ChannelDelibird]

The D1 lynch was rushed. Real life happened to me and I couldn't keep up with the D1 mislynch..

Do you believe Davsto's claim? Do you think you were a reasonable target for a town vig? Who do you think is scum?

"Delay showing his hand". I'm being completely open here.

Saying that is a little devious of you.

You said that you wanted to delay reacting to a claimed vig on you.

[ChannelDelibird]

Why are you bolding the parts of my sentence that make it look as if it didn't start with "I don't think..."?

[ChannelDelibird]

Why are you bolding the parts of my sentence that make it look as if it didn't start with "I don't think..."?

Unnecessary. I mean it's there for everyone to see.

Do you think I had an agenda by not including it.

I mean, I literally can't tell what you're implying. You quote it, bolding that particular part, then say "It's a big deal? OK." That makes it look like I'm saying it was a big deal, when my meaning was the exact opposite. I just actually don't understand what you meant by that post.

[ChannelDelibird]

How is explaining I don't have a good read yet "delaying my hand"? At least in the negative context you placed it?

If I'm town in your position, my reaction isn't complicated. Someone asks me to claim, fine, I claim VT, knowing that anything incriminating on me is not accurate. By that point, Davsto had already explicitly claimed a vig shot on you, while Mario is the only one who's ever mentioned a rolecop. Even if a rolecop is involved, you still don't have anything much to which to react; you're a VT, this is all basic, any inaccuracies are on their end. I don't know why you would need to delay reacting to something (your words) when the relevant claims are already out.

If I were mafia in your position, though, it wouldn't be that cut-and-dried. By knowing what powers the mafia group has, I might know more about what could be going wrong here than I would if I were a VT - maybe the mafia has a rolecop and you're confused that the word has entered the thread before that rolecop has flipped. Maybe you're worrying that your claim is no longer going to stand up to scrutiny. Whatever it is, you know that it'll be easier to say something that fits together to avoid incriminating you once all the information is out; that's a concern that a real VT doesn't share.

I'm not saying that that's definitely what happened, but that post of yours implies to me that there's a thought process going on beyond 'I'm a VT, who else fucked this up' so I find it suspicious.

[ChannelDelibird]

YOU implied I made it a big deal for some reason. I haven't implied anything.

It's like you are looking for ANYTHING I'm doing to be scummy. Even if that means ignoring my words, and forcing that I was "implying something".

Dude. Calm down. I would have said if I thought that part made you scummy. Even at the moment, I'm still trying to figure out what I think of what you're saying and doing.

It just got to the point where we were taking five or six posts, back and forth, to clarify whether or not you'd read one post, and the reason why I posted to say it wasn't a big deal was because I intended to stop talking about it and wanted you to know why. Even right now, I think this part of our conversation is a giant miscommunication that's distracting from useful things. So I'm just going to drop it now, because I'm going out anyway. What I think is important here is the other stuff about which I'm talking.

You also didn't respond to the part where I asked who you thought was scum. That's important, too. Who do you think is scum?

[ChannelDelibird]

GrayFox's complete failure to grok that I'm suggesting that the thought process which he is claiming to have had may not be the one which he actually had might be a towntell.

[ChannelDelibird]

Figuring out who knew that Expedience was going to flip town is near the top of my priority list when I get off work later, too. In the meantime, should you wish to metadive me, useful links:

Spoiler: Recent games

As town:

Team Mafia
Eine Kleine Nacht-Mord
Uncouth
Murder on the Oriental Express
DS9 season 1
UK meet invitational 2015
UK meet invitational 2014
Nexlexia

I haven't had as many scum games over recent months/years but here are the most recent:

Reck's Retrospective Rehash (mafia)
Harry Potter 1 (mafia)
999 Mafia (third party)

[ChannelDelibird]

Sorry guys, I was utterly wiped out after my shift yesterday and have spent much of my day today trying to fix my computer, unexpectedly. I might not get a lot of time to look over things tonight as I'm about to start playing some BSG but, having read the last couple of pages, I'd say that my townread on Silverwolf has intensified.

My vote would be on GrayFox if not for this. I'm worried that he's just town playing in a really, really unsatisfactory manner. Given that he and Davsto were my primary remaining suspects at the end of Day 1, I'm due a rethink for which I haven't yet had time. Should be able to sneak in some reading during my shift tomorrow, though.

I also want to think about who might have profited from Slandaar's death. Nightkill analysis is too often overlooked on mafiascum; I remember thinking that there was no obvious mega-town player from Yesterday so there could be some interpersonal reasons as to why he was offed.

[ChannelDelibird]

Mario, did you read #400? What do you think of it? I know that GrayFox's iso is 'bad', quote unquote, but I'm not convinced that it comes from a scum mindset. I don't know either way, but it's certainly nagging at me.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'm a bit worried about All Alone. They were kind of a single-issue campaigner Yesterday on Expedience and posts Today have been much, much thinner.

All Alone, do you still think GrayFox is scum? Do you find anyone's participation in the Expedience lynch suspicious? Why do you think that Slandaar died?

[ChannelDelibird]

@CDB-Who do you think would benefit most by a slaander NK?

I think that I have an answer but I'd like for All Alone to have a go at answering it first.

[ChannelDelibird]

I only voted GrayFox because of davsto's soft. Other than that I had nothing against him, and I read his frustration with the subsequent attacks on him as town motivated.

What do you think of his continued failure to deliver on promises of reads? "Twenty-four hours, tops" was several hours ago.

Hell if I know why Slandaar died, try asking someone with access to the scum topic.

Do you think that people trying to work out why Slandaar was killed are wasting their time? Do you think that I'm scummy for asking you about it? What do you think of my slot? In fact, I don't think that I have much of an idea of what you think of more than about four people in this game.

[ChannelDelibird]

My instinct, like Performer's, is that Slandaar was the only person who was seriously concerned about Wanderer on Day 1 and that, if anyone gains from his death, she might be the first.

I'm having trouble making up my mind over what I think of 497, though, which should be a pretty telling post but I don't know Wanderer well enough to assess her tone with as much certainty as I'd like. Town certainly

should

never go 'I guess you'd better lynch me' in this situation - they should make a fight of it - but that isn't to say that I've not seen misguided townies go that route. I think I'm leaning toward it sounding not quite right for town - it's a little bit limp and half-hearted in a way that doesn't seem to reflect the situation that it's creating. If townWanderer rolls over now, that's a conscious decision to put us at two town lynches down for what doesn't feel like any significant gain in return. I think that town ought to be more perturbed about that.

Consider me interested in getting involved with a Wanderer lynch shortly but I think it's important that we hear more from GrayFox and All Alone before that happens. The former, in particular, is in real last-chance-saloon territory.

[ChannelDelibird]

I don't think that Silverwolf is expressing doubt that this game has multiple VTs. I think the concern is that, by exposing a lot of claims, we risk telling scum a lot about what roles we have and who has them. I certainly empathise with the desire to avoid giving them more information if we can avoid it.

[ChannelDelibird]

But she says about lynching one of the VT claimers just because they claimed VT. I mean, what?

C'mon, man, read around a little bit. Silverwolf clearly suspects those people anyway, so it's not a case of lynching them "just because they claimed VT". It's that you have suspicious people who, if it turns out are town after all, don't cost us a power role by lynching. If you assume that town always tell the truth about their role (which they should), then lynching a VT claim is inherently safer than lynching a power-role claim. That's not to say that claiming VT is a surefire way to get lynched - you judge people on their play, and I think Silverwolf is doing that - but there's something to be said for, if there are a few claims out, lynching someone who's already claimed and carries less penalty if you're wrong than looking elsewhere for its own sake and risking outing even more information.

[ChannelDelibird]

I'd actually like to lynch one of the VT claims for this reason alone.

Like, even with the context snipped you can tell that this sentence is hinting at a context in which there is more than one reason to lynch one of the two people who happen to have claimed VT but that the claims are another strong reason to do so.

[ChannelDelibird]

Have you never heard people speak that way? I mean, I'd wager that a majority of the times when I hear someone go 'for this reason alone', it's when they're emphasising one of several reasons to make the point that there is a weight of reasoning.

[ChannelDelibird]

Anyway, I'm done talking on Silverwolf's behalf, I guess, I just think that it's a silly thing onto which to latch when the meaning is pretty obvious to me and the reasons behind it are easily understood. It's also my preference to lynch between Wanderer and GrayFox, at this point - probably in that order, as things stands, but that specifically includes GrayFox actually showing up and talking about his reads on everyone before we go through with the lynch. If he doesn't, order probably changes.

[ChannelDelibird]

Hi, Mario. If you want GrayFox lynched so badly, how's about you slow down a bit and wait for him to either redeem or destroy himself by following up on those reads he promised us? We're not under serious time pressure and multiple people have made it clear that they want to hear more from him. There's no need to fume about us not doing something which is still very much on the table. If you're town who wants to see GrayFox die, why let him slide by hurrying up someone else's lynch?

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, but it's not like you're the only one who thinks that he's scummy. Wouldn't your cause be further advanced by, instead of putting Wanderer at L-1, reminding everyone of how late GrayFox is in producing that content he promised?

[ChannelDelibird]

#HowToBeAGoodTownie

[ChannelDelibird]

Maybe they do, but reminding never hurts, especially if a wagon that you like less is gaining mass.

I mean, at any rate, I'm like 80% sure that GrayFox is experiencing what happens to me sometimes where he's kind of checked out of the game and knows that he has to do a buttload of work for it next time that he posts and is finding it hard to summon the motivation. I don't really have any great expectation of seeing him show up, to be honest. And I don't think that that part says an awful lot about his alignment, but what he might say if he does come back and do the work

might

, so I want to wait to see it.

But I'm comfortable with either of him or Wanderer being lynched, when we do get round to it.

[ChannelDelibird]

Not even a

little

apologetic that you didn't deliver what you said that you were going to deliver before your V/LA began?

[ChannelDelibird]

Honestly, I think that I lean town on GrayFox. Useless, disengaged town.

[ChannelDelibird]

Performer's entire tone is... weird to me. I can't tell if it's just a personality thing, but he seems to just drift about and seem very detached from almost everything.

I think that what I want out of Today is a Wanderer lynch but I feel like I'm going to have to majorly reevaluate a lot of stuff if she flips town.

[ChannelDelibird]

GrayFox, are you still posting on your phone? You seem to be having several instances of your meaning not being taken from very short posts. I think people would find a longer post putting your current thoughts in one place, clearly explained, instructive.

Right now I'm pretty confused about what I want done. Broadly speaking, I think Wanderer, Performer and GrayFox have had the three scummiest behaviours in the game but I'm unsettled by the fact those three people just happen to be the only people with wagons. Scum supports at least one of their deaths. I'm also going back and forth on some of them (GrayFox in particular; I can definitely see his behaviour as being disengaged town, but there's also been a couple of moments which look scummier).

[ChannelDelibird]

On a lot of levels, I don't disagree with you. Note that when I replaced in I immediately thought that GrayFox was probably scum. I totally understand why he's getting votes, but some of what you're describing, while not good behaviour, is behaviour that I have seen from town as well, and I still come back to a couple of moments that hint at a town mindset (can't link right now but mentioned it in my iso a couple of times). I'm really, really angry at his play no matter what faction he is, but I don't know that I'm convinced.

[ChannelDelibird]

I don't really see how me misreading how seriously you were taking something a week ago has anything to do with me being angry at what you've put into this game now.

SilverWolf is my strongest townread. I won't be voting for her.

[ChannelDelibird]

Yeah, you're right, time to shit or get off the pot.

VOTE: Performer - feel better about that than the other two.

That's Lynch-1. I recommend letting the replacement catch up before a hammer happens.

[ChannelDelibird]

Go for it. I could do with a couple of flips.

[ChannelDelibird]

Booyah! I'm a jailkeeper (hence why I pointed out that Davsto could have been blocked on Night 1, because that's exactly what happened) and I jailed Octopus last night after reviewing Perfomer's iso. I don't believe that Octopus would have been targeted for a nightkill; him performing a kill is far more likely.

VOTE: Octopus

[ChannelDelibird]

Nice job, CDB.

VOTE: Octopus

Also, now I'm pretty damn sure the other scum is Grayfoxxxx. The mixture of the "woah slow down" on a wagon which was scum and the first part of Performer's final post which reads so damn much like distancing makes me at least 90% sure it is Grayfoxxxx. That's the lynch for tomorrow.

This seems reasonably plausible. I'm probably blocking Grayfox tonight so, if I die, then he's either a mafia roleblocker (unlikely in a 12p with another blocking role) or town - or the mafia tried to pull a no-kill gambit which, fine, doesn't really get them anything more than a lynch on a slot that was distracting anyway.

[ChannelDelibird]

retarded

Please don't do this, thanks.

[ChannelDelibird]

Octopus, if you are claiming a power role, go ahead and say what it is, but I don't believe that you would have been a likely target for a kill. Honestly, I was worried that I would be dead if I chose the wrong target because I felt like it might have been obvious Yesterday that I was hinting at being Davsto's blocker.