Mini 1733: Jurassic Monkey - game over

[Alchemist21]

Hey guys!

P-edit: Yo! Good to see you again fire!

[Alchemist21]

Vote: Syndesis

for obvious reasons.

Alright so I like to start things off with a couple housekeeping things that I'd appreciate if people respond to. It may or may not help find scum, but it makes the game easier for me and possibly others to follow.

1) Is anyone in a non-American time zone, or for other reasons posts in odd hours?
2) Is anyone here brand new or otherwise unfamiliar with how the game is played here at mafiascum.net?
3) What kind of level of activity should we expect from you?

To respond to my own questions I live in Pacific time, but my sleep schedule has been awkward lately so I might post later than one would expect from a west coaster. I'm quite experienced (30ish games?) but haven't played in like a year and a half when my games kept getting ruined by site downtime. I have more free time than I should right now (thus coming back to Mafia!) and I'll likely be quite active.

1) East Coast US time zone
2) Plenty familiar
3) Varies, but generally a daily thing.

[Alchemist21]

I can tell this is going to be a high-volume-post game.

Early readthrough reads that are more or less gut:

Town:
Fire
Garmr
Iceninja
Synd (obviously)
Wanderer

Scum:
3dice
Archmage
Davsto (maybe)

Anyone else I have no read on right now. I'll take another look at some of these slots later on to look at them from a more logical perspective, but for now I'm comfortable with this.

VOTE: 3dicerolling

[Alchemist21]

I can tell this is going to be a high-volume-post game.

Anyone else I have no read on right now. I'll take another look at some of these slots later on to look at them from a more logical perspective, but for now I'm comfortable with this.

VOTE: 3dicerolling

Tell me more about your vote?

He was the first one I had a gut read on, and I'd say it's slightly stronger than the one on you.

[Alchemist21]

I actually kinda like Dave's point there, but I do think scum are generally more careful with their early arguments. Doing something scummy in the hopes that scum jump on it is a play I've seen from Town multiple times before (see Slayer's Gambit). It also usually comes from newer players as well though.

Ice falls a little imo, but stays in Town range. I think Dave just went up into very slight Town range.

[Alchemist21]

I've pretty much given all my thoughts so far. I've gone back through Dice's and Arch's ISO's but that didn't do much to change my read of them tbh. I think I'll have more success in developing my reads going forward rather than trying to sort through this retroactively.

[Alchemist21]

Fair enough.

I was scum reading your slot a bit, so I would like more interaction with you.

What are your current reads? Mine still stand from the list I posted with the exception that Davsto is now Town.

P.S. As a total aside I totally would have discussed strat with you in that game but BBT messed up sending the PM.

[Alchemist21]

Why do you think Mario is scum?

Also, why is discussion on whether scum had pregame/day chat relevant? The question came from Archmage seeming to not realize syndesis was an Innocent Child, but that fact is in the OP so I wouldn't call that a Townslip or an attempt to fake one.

[Alchemist21]

Interesting you asked why I thought Mario was scum, instead of asking why I thought your slot was scum.

Very interesting.

I ask because Mario is currently null for me and I'm asking to see if I'm missing something there.

[Alchemist21]

@Fire, are you going to tell my why you're scumreading Mario?

Regarding Davsto, his wagon is starting to look like how wagons typically form on VI's. I think archmage is a much better wagon.

VOTE: Archmage Ludicrous

[Alchemist21]

Ok. I can see that last part, although after 609 I'm not putting him in my scumreads just on that.

@Mario, what are your current reads?

[Alchemist21]

It's time to get spoopy.

[Alchemist21]

^There's what was pointed out about him not voting Davsto until now, and also one of his earlier posts reads like apologetic scum to me. Davsto looks like the kind of Town who really doesn't produce much D1 (player of reference, randomidget).

[Alchemist21]

^Is that supposed to be @me?

[Alchemist21]

Pistachion just moved into my scumreads. Archmage's "readslist" was the worst part of his play, and him admitting that it was a forced post is what looks like apologetic scum to me. I find it hard to believe Town sees that and thinks it looks good.

[Alchemist21]

Theory related stuff

: I don't think there's much wrong with Garmr's idea beyond it's too early. Townhunting is a legit strategy, and townblocing is just an extension of multiple people using that method in cohesion. I think players can Townhunt from the very start of the game, but a bloc shouldn't be organized until later in the game because of the generally lower accuracy of earlier reads and it gives scum a guideline of who to kill.

[/Theory]

Does anyone think it's impossible for pistachion and archmage to be scum together? I think pistachion's post could have been made towards Arch regardless of Arch's alignment (it could be bussing just as easily as jumping on a Town counterwagon). Frankly I could lynch either one at this point and don't care which is first.

[Alchemist21]

Hey Wanderer and Alchemist!!!!
How you two doing?

I'm doing well I guess. You?

[Alchemist21]

We has 1 of our neighbors being their kids and that was it. We had planned a month ago to be somewhere else for Halloween but it didn't work out that way.

[Alchemist21]

Happy birthday Scorpious!

[Alchemist21]

You might wanna rethink what you name that tell, garmr.

[Alchemist21]

I'm kinda thinking Garmr/Dave is Town/Town here, and this huge argument is coming from two people who are very different.

[Alchemist21]

Damn,Alch.. Why?

420

I have to re-read you now.. That post was so uneeded

I think it was needed. They're arguing the same points back and forth and the argument is doing nothing for us anymore.

[Alchemist21]

Is that L-1?

[Alchemist21]

Is that L-1?

Nvm this. 3 ppl moved off since that last vc.

[Alchemist21]

Scorpious looks the same to me as they did in o611. If we're not lynching Archmage today then it should be Pistachion.

[Alchemist21]

I still think Dav is going to flip Town.

Why arch or pistachion were never lynched today, I will never know.

[Alchemist21]

Of course. That was a Halloween special; and I have a completely special one picked out for Christmas.

[Alchemist21]

As long as it isn't as creepy as the halloween one.

Did you ever see the Santa Boss from SAO?

Spoiler:

I'm kidding! The Christmas ava won't be SAO related at all!

[Alchemist21]

Btw credit goes to caledfwitch for the awesome Halloween Avatar. She made some for several others too.

[Alchemist21]

I'm actually leaning Town on Pistachion after Dav flipped scum. She was voting with Dav EoD and I don't think scum would be voting together in a CW D1 like they did.

I think Garmr, Pist, Archmage, and Scorpious (to a lesser extent) all come across as Town from Dav's flip.

I'm thinking AA and MM are scum. All Alone because of how he was hungup on Pistachion for a lot of D1, and Mario because of a combination of Fire's opinion of him and the fact that he didn't show frustration about the Dav wagon before the hammer, but showed quite a bit after the hammer.

VOTE: MarioManiac

[Alchemist21]

I'm actually leaning Town on Pistachion after Dav flipped scum. She was voting with Dav EoD and I don't think scum would be voting together in a CW D1 like they did.

I think Garmr, Pist, Archmage, and Scorpious (to a lesser extent) all come across as Town from Dav's flip.

I'm thinking AA and MM are scum. All Alone because of how he was hungup on Pistachion for a lot of D1, and Mario because of a combination of Fire's opinion of him and the fact that he didn't show frustration about the Dav wagon before the hammer, but showed quite a bit after the hammer.

VOTE: MarioManiac

EBWOP: forgot IceNinja is Town by Dav's flip too.

[Alchemist21]

Are you going to place a vote or nah?

[Alchemist21]

This is Mario about the Dav wagon before the hammer:

Spoiler:

I really don't get the Davsto wagon.
Like, at all.

No, information is "There are people voting for Davsto. ICE made a case against him but I don't know how I feel about it".

Analysis is "I don't like this wagon", which is how I am interpreting Mario's post. Mario, please correct me if I am wrong, and that you are actually confused by the wagon as opposed to being against it.

I agree with this..

UNVOTE: mm4
VOTE: Archmage

And being wrong is scummy, exactly why?
I'm pretty sure you are looking for an excuse to join the TAL wagon.
VOTE: Scorpious

And yes, I'm saying I think Davsto is town as I can relate to his thought process, and do not understand the case on Davsto being Mafia-aligned.

This is him about the wagon after the hammer:

Spoiler:

Wait.
you guys lynched davsto?
really?

Wait.
you guys lynched davsto?
really?

So now you are saying you had a strong town read on him?

No I'm saying there were better options for the day.
I just noticed the deadline was in 2 days which does admittedly make the lynch the best option at the end.
We should've wagoned Scorpious though.

Last second speed wagons at the end of the day are always bad.

-Garmr, 2015, after leading the Davsto wagon

Again, I think he's showing more frustration after the hammer than before, and I think that's because he thought if he rallied hard against a Dav wagon before he'd get flak for it but if he did it after the hammer he'd get people to think he seriously wanted a different wagon.

[Alchemist21]

@3dice; I think it points to Mario scum because Mario thought he'd get scumread for aggressively defending his buddy from the lynch, but if he did it after it was too late for it to change anything he'd look more genuine. Basically, I think he was putting on a few airs after Dav was hammered.

[Alchemist21]

@3dice; I think it points to Mario scum because Mario thought he'd get scumread for aggressively defending his buddy from the lynch, but if he did it after it was too late for it to change anything he'd look more genuine. Basically, I think he was putting on a few airs after Dav was hammered.

This makes more sense. Can you elaborate more on your pistacion town read? The way I see it is, Pistacion was playing pretty conservatively, not posting much content at all. When garmr starts hard pushing davsto, she slips in with a vote on garmr. The timing of it all seems too coincidental to be a town pistacion.

I think she's Town

because

she and Dav were voting together. It's not good scumplay to tie your votes together on D1, and it's especially poor if one of them is going down. This is strengthened by Dav voting Garmr after Pistachion did. He was the one going down, so I would expect he'd be the one to be thinking about not tying the votes together.

It could be a knee-jerk defense combined with bad scumplay, but I like to give people more credit than that.

[Alchemist21]

You know of the quotes thing is really an issue the responder could just refer the the post they're talking about with a post tag.

Code: Select all

[post]586[/post]

[Alchemist21]

3d- very logical thought progression. I don't read as scum.
Alchemist-I like how he seems to be asking questions and being open about answers. IT don't get the vibe he is asking his questions with the intent of slamming someone on their answer. Town
All alone-not enough for me to feel anything.The only indicative thing

could

be activity,or lack thereof. I used to use activity as a read.was always wrong. null
Dav-DEADSCUM
Fire--Where did he go?
Garmr-been scum with him before..Not seeing the same play.Town
ICEninja-really pinged me when he started pushing me on something insignificant. Scum lean
mm4-been reading scum since the game started,.
pistachio- loos like an easy mislynch.. null-town
Syn-I know IC sucks
Archamage-been wary ever since that first "forced" read wall. lean scum
Wanderer-logical progression on me hammering.. Town

these are abridged.. ask for any clarification..

Is 3dice a nullread or a Townread for you? If it's a Townread could you explain that some more?

[Alchemist21]

@Pistachi0n; Would you be willing to vote Mario today and go for All Alone tomorrow?

[Alchemist21]

All Alone, I would appreciate if you could expand your view to like beyond Pistache. You don't engage with others about their reads on Pistache, you don't seem to be scumhunting, just pushing the one target. What doesit meanto you that a lot of players are actually townreading her?

That's why I keep reading her, either to see if there's a town motive from her that I've overlooked, or if I can find enough evidence of her having a scum motive to actually push her lynch through. I've tried everything I know and haven't found either, and I honestly really don't know what else I can do here.

@Scorpius, once again, I'd really like to know why you chose to hammer fifteen minutes after intent.

IDK, seemed like the right thing to do..

VOTE: Scorpious

I

seriously

doubt a townie would hammer and not know why. Townies have to think about the alignments of the players they're voting, so when they've made the decision to hammer they've almost certainly got a good reason for it. This reads like Scorpious already knew Davsto was scum, and thus didn't have to think about it.

Davsto/pistachi0n/Scorpious. Calling it now.

I agree one hundred percent that most likely scum team at this point is pistach and Scorp. Intent to vote Scorp.

If you're trying to use a spoiler tag use

Code: Select all

[spoiler=][/spoiler]

Normal spoiler tags make the spoiler censored.

[Alchemist21]

Why do you think Pistachion is scum?

[Alchemist21]

I don't think we're going to get much more discussion out of this Day. Someone should probably hammer at this point. I'm still thinking Mario/AA are the scumteam.

[Alchemist21]

Fire's always been the N1 kill in every one of his Town game I've been in with him, and tbh I've never really understood why he was killed any of those times. My best guess is that scum tend to consider him a safe kill. Trying to figure out the kill this early in the game just creates a lot of speculation that opens itself up to wifom, especially if there wasn't much of a reason for the kill in the first place.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: All Alone

Scorp has gone from mild Town to null for me. I want to see how they play today to try and get a more solid read on them.

[Alchemist21]

VOTE: All Alone

Scorp has gone from mild Town to null for me. I want to see how they play today to try and get a more solid read on them.

How does that line of reasoning justify a vote on All Alone?

My AA vote is carryover from yesterday.

[Alchemist21]

Ice makes a good point in 788. Scorp claiming commuter already nullifies whatever use that role was, and there's no proof the claim is true.

VOTE: Scorpious

[Alchemist21]

ICE is scum
All Alone is scum
Mage is scum

lynch away boys..

A game like this only has 3 scum. Try again.

A good try by Scum.. "We can't kill him at night,so we gotta make sure he's lynched"

Lol Why would scum even consider you for the Night Kill in the first place?

[Alchemist21]

Considering the current wagon (which I mostly like) I'd probably think AA Townier if scorp flips scum, but not on the level of clearing AA for it. ICE is already clear imo.

I'd have to ISO scorp to see who the potential partner could be, and there's also a chance that he's been playing in a way to prevent giving a lot of info to the Town if he dies.

[Alchemist21]

I will say this. If the first 2 kills were the 2 players that talked about forming a Townbloc, then scum might be worried about the Town forming a larger bloc and PoE'ing them. Maybe we should try to focus on Townreads and try to get a strong bloc going, especially if Scorpious flips scum.

We have 9 alive right now. If we can get a bloc of 5 Townies and PoE the rest, then it would work. So I think everyone should make a list of players they would bloc with and see if we can get a consensus going.

I would block with:

Syndesis
Ice
3dice
Archmage
Wanderer

[Alchemist21]

Good point.

UNVOTE:

[Alchemist21]

Well they do, but an i dividual can certainly try to pretend they don't know what's going on to fake a Townslip.

[Alchemist21]

Wanderer why don't you put a list of people you would bloc with?

[Alchemist21]

@Scorpious; What about the fact ICE was in Davsto for most of D1, and was the first one to push him?

[Alchemist21]

@

Scorpious

: So, in a nutshell, confbias.

ok then

So does anyone have a role to counteract a commuter...?

1. Really??
2. What counteracts a commuter?

The only thing I can think of would be a Dayvig.

[Alchemist21]

I take it we're not doing the Town bloc thing anymore?

[Alchemist21]

Alchemist: You addressed me to post my townbloc, but you didn't ask others that didn't post theirs. What's up with that?

You were the first one I noticed who didn't post one (I completely missed ICE's refusal at first), and since you didn't outright refuse I wondered if you had just missed it or were refusing. I wasn't really keeping track of who had already posted a list and just thought everyone would respond soon enough, but then the convo seemed to have drifted away from it and now people are wanting to end the Day. I counted this morning and saw 5 players had posted a list, and I'm guessing the other 4 are against it (ICE definitely is).

If nobody else is going to post a list then I'll hammer.

[Alchemist21]

I'll do it.

VOTE: Scorpious

[Alchemist21]

So...anybody know any good jokes?

If Abbot and Costello were in Dr. Who-

Abbot: Hello. I'm the Doctor.
Costello: Dr. who?
A: Yes.
C: Doctor...?
A: What?
C: Dr. What?
A: No, Dr. Who.
C: What are you asking me for? I'm asking you!

[Alchemist21]

What made you think he was a Cop if you couldn't tell who he investigated?

[Alchemist21]

Your only two reads are the mod confirmed innocent child and the second best wagon from yesterday?

Excuse me, it was the best wagon yesterday. Scum convinced people it was the second best. And obviously I have reads, but aside from those two it's pretty much a sliding scale from slightly leaning town to slightly leaning scum.

Alchemist and Wanderer were both on the town wagon and not on the scum wagon. Pistachi0n and All Alone seem...alright. Archmage still felt like the VI lynchbait. You (3dice) I'm having a hard time reading. Some things suggest town, some things suggest scum.

Nothing is particularly concrete, and being as confident as I am about Scorpious, I really don't see much reason to make a case for anyone else at the moment.

Let's just say this for now, in this scale:

Wont vote today:

Syndesis
All Alone
pistachi0n
Archmage

Probably won't vote today:

3dice

Will take some serious convincing to get me to vote today:

Alchemist
Wanderer

Will probably be voting for the duration of today:

Scorpious

Consider that, with the exception of the first and last, a very weak sliding scale of town to scum reads right now. Tomorrow, who knows. I'll probably have to go back to reading the game thoroughly to find scum.

Vote Scorpious

.

Actually how about we toss Archmage in to the "probably won't vote today" instead of "won't vote today".

Your only two reads are the mod confirmed innocent child and the second best wagon from yesterday?

Excuse me, it was the best wagon yesterday. Scum convinced people it was the second best. And obviously I have reads, but aside from those two it's pretty much a sliding scale from slightly leaning town to slightly leaning scum.

Alchemist and Wanderer were both on the town wagon and not on the scum wagon. Pistachi0n and All Alone seem...alright. Archmage still felt like the VI lynchbait. You (3dice) I'm having a hard time reading. Some things suggest town, some things suggest scum.

Nothing is particularly concrete, and being as confident as I am about Scorpious, I really don't see much reason to make a case for anyone else at the moment.

Let's just say this for now, in this scale:

Wont vote today:

Syndesis
All Alone
pistachi0n
Archmage

Probably won't vote today:

3dice

Will take some serious convincing to get me to vote today:

Alchemist
Wanderer

Will probably be voting for the duration of today:

Scorpious

Consider that, with the exception of the first and last, a very weak sliding scale of town to scum reads right now. Tomorrow, who knows. I'll probably have to go back to reading the game thoroughly to find scum.

Vote Scorpious

.

Actually how about we toss Archmage in to the "probably won't vote today" instead of "won't vote today".

Going back through ICE's ISO, I think it's a safe bet AA and Pistachion were his investigations. There's an off chance Garmr was the N1 check, but his posts about Pistachion makes me think she was definitely a check, and his speculation that AA was more likely scum if Pistachion was Town would have made AA a good investigation target if Pistachion was the N1 check.

[Alchemist21]

If I'm right about ICE having investigations on those two, then the final scum are 2 of 3dice/Archmage/Wanderer.

VOTE: Wanderer

Let's start here for now.

[Alchemist21]

Scum probably have strong PRs. I'm seriously questioning the balance of this game based on the Town PRs.

[Alchemist21]

Scum probably have strong PRs. I'm seriously questioning the balance of this game based on the Town PRs.

What PRs do you believe they have?

I'm not sure. They likely have a day-kill ability to counter the commuter ability. There's probably some counter to the Cop as well because I don't think a full commuter would really nerf a cop enough to keep the game balanced.

[Alchemist21]

If they have a Day Kill that would mean today is MyLo, since tomorrow would be 5 alive and the kill would achieve Parity.

That being the case I should probably hardclaim now. I'm a Town Universal Backup and I inherited Scorpious' Commuter ability. Just knowing that there's a chance 2 commuters could be in the game is why I'm confident in the scum having a Day Kill of some kind, and the fact I could have also have become a second Cop makes the setup as we know it very Town-sided, which pretty much guarantees scum have some strong powers.

P-edit: Hmm, a Godfather is a strong possibility for this game. That would make me think AA isn't 100% confTown, but just doubtcasting Cop results isn't enough to make me consider him for PoE at this time unless someone provides strong enough evidence he's scum, or that 2 of the 3 in my PoE are undoubtedly Town.

[Alchemist21]

Town Universal Backup

what in the name of god

Is it worth considering the possibility of another non-town role?

What do you mean by this question?

[Alchemist21]

If he investigated Scorpious and got No Result wouldn't he just assume he was roleblocked and not assume it was due to something Scorpious had?

I still think AA was investigated, and someone's going to have to put together a strong case to convince me he's likely a Godfather. I still think it's 2 of Archmage/3dice/wanderer, and gun to my head I'd say Archmage is likeliest to be Town here.

[Alchemist21]

And yeah, what Synd just said is also true.

[Alchemist21]

No, I didn't crumb my role. I would have crumbed results if I had any, but I don't like crumbing my roles because scum can more easily pick up on them than Town.

[Alchemist21]

-scum 1-shot n wouldn't choose IC (would kill IC before lylo)
--someone towny
--but not so much lack of kill would look weird
--familiarity

What does this part mean?

[Alchemist21]

Hm...

At least one of Wanderer and Alchemist is scum, unless All Alone or pistach is Godfather. We can't conclude the existence of a Godfather at this point, so we'll call them town with two nines of certainty.

Actually, scratch that. Even if there is a Godfather, I think it's nearly certain at least one of Wanderer and Alchemist is scum. The balance is wonky otherwise. IMO.

Balance-wise, of the two, I think it makes more sense for Alchemist to be scum than for Wanderer to be. I think there's a reasonable chance they're both scum, though.

asdf.

What I really need is to dig down on Alch, but I don't have the time right now. That takes a good hour or two.

I thought you were going to take a closer look at 3dice as well. What happened to that?

[Alchemist21]

My role did have an exemption for the Innocent Child. If it died first I would instead get the next Town PR that died.

As for my claim/vote:

I do not think I was ever going to be a choice for the NK given that I was in a lot of people's null piles and ICE's apparant Cop results. I had considered claiming backup Cop instead to draw the NK, but I sincerely believe that the implications for the overall balance of the game are different for a Universal Backup than they would be for a backup Cop. I decided to claim at all because I think my claim adds one more to the pool of confTown (though the confTown voting me seem to disagree) and makes PoE'ing the scum much easier. Some people think you shouldn't lynch at MyLo, others think you should. The argument for lynching at MyLo is that you get one more Town voice during the day that would be silenced by the scum NK.

So tell me, why do you think I as scum would claim Universal Backup and push the idea we may be in MyLo in the first place? What would I gain from that? And again, did you look into 3dice at all since you said you would? If you're Town then the scumteam is almost certainly wanderer/3dice.

[Alchemist21]

In mylo IC or clears are guaranteed to be killed so there's little benefit in no lynching. However, I do agree that the dayvig spec is a bit off. (I...would find it /quite/ unlikely that there would be a scum dayvig in a normal? But anyway.)

(I'm also reasonably sure a backup neighborizer would get a new hood? But I dunno.)

Normals are allowed 1 non-normal role and I can't think of anything else that would counter the potential 2 Commuters. There is a chance that aspect of balance was overlooked (doubt it since Normals are reviewed) or that I'm overestimating the Town Utility of having potentially 2 Commuters.

[Alchemist21]

Syndesis, I'm advocating lynching here, so it doesn't make sense to say I'm suggesting it's MyLo to push a No Lynch. And if I'm trying to become confTown, why would I have claimed backup and not simply Backup Cop?

[Alchemist21]

Also, suppose Ice died first? Wtf is a scum backup going to do with a Cop ability?

[Alchemist21]

If you want to argue I'm not a true Universal Backup you'll have to take it up with the mod and the review group who approved the setup. I thought people would come to the conclusion I'm Town based on my role because it wouldn't make sense for scum to have my role. Even if I couldn't have become an IC I could still have become a Cop which is absolutely useless for scum.

As for the mylo issue, if I were scum and knew for sure it was mylo I wouldn't even suggest that possibility. Scum's main advantage is having more information than the Town. It would have been far more advantageous to keep quiet on the matter and let the Town believe it's a normal Day phase. Suggesting it's MyLo would make the Town more likely to be more cautious about the lynch than rush one.

In your last post twice you admit I have solid reasoning, yet you seem to maintain the argument that Town wouldn't do what I did. If you think Town wouldn't do something then you implicitly believe scum would do it, and I'm showing you reasons why scum

wouldn't

do it.

[Alchemist21]

I

am

a Universal Backup dammit. I forgot to mention the IC exemption at first because I had already inherited the commuter role and was thinking about its implications for this game's balance. It wasn't until you were listing out all the roles I could become that I realized I hadn't pointed that out. If you think my claim is more likely to come from scum than Town, then you're not thinking critically enough. I'm starting to get pissed off here because no matter what I tell you you're just going to shrug it off and say I'm lying scum.

[Alchemist21]

I actually think that Alchemist not being able to get IC points more to the role landed in scum-hands. IC is inherently town.
About it maybe being mylo: I don't think so. 13 players in a normal likely means 3 scum. We lynched 1 scum already so 2 scum left and 5 town, which means if we misslynch today and scum kill tonight, we'll be in lylo tomorrow. Mylo means we'll lose if we misslynch.

Alchemist: Do you have reasons at all for picking me or was your vote a guess?

@Pistachion: Syndesis confirmed my role, not my alignment.

You haven't made much of an impression on me this game, and when considering that there are highly likely 2 scum in you/archmage/3dice, I felt Archmage looked the Towniest.

Also, do you think it's possible scum would have a dayvig? That's the basis for me thinking this could be mylo, since if there is one then a mislynch today and a NK + DK from the scum means they win.

One more thing, what about the fact I could become a Cop? That role is also inherently Town.

[Alchemist21]

I decided to claim at all because I think my claim adds one more to the pool of confTown (though the confTown voting me seem to disagree) and makes PoE'ing the scum much easier.

Why did you think your claim would make you conftown? I mean it's not exactly like the last guy who claimed commuter was considered conftown.

I was hoping it would because having 1 more would have cleared half the game and make the PoE a lot easier. It makes no sense for scum to have this role even with the IC exemption.

Wanderer, do you believe a town Universal Backup can exist in this setup with you?

I find it very, very hard to believe. After I played Numbers mafia I know there are some reviewers that think town need a lot of pr's to win (4 pr's of which one a JOAT with 4 pr's in one vs 3 scum that had 1 pr) so if you don't mind I'd like to take my time a little to figure this out. I'm also considering the role could be a complete lie and only serves to cause paranoia.

You haven't made much of an impression on me this game, and when considering that there are highly likely 2 scum in you/archmage/3dice, I felt Archmage looked the Towniest.

Also, do you think it's possible scum would have a dayvig? That's the basis for me thinking this could be mylo, since if there is one then a mislynch today and a NK + DK from the scum means they win.

One more thing, what about the fact I could become a Cop? That role is also inherently Town.

That's highly likely only if the assumptions about ICE's investigations are true, and I'm horrible at spotting tells, for me only Pistachion stands out as his target.

No. Scum with a dayvig-shot can save it to lylo, shoot town during Day and win. It's actually a ridiculous thought scum would have dayvig in a non-rolemadness (or even at all imo but I wouldn't know) I think it's more likely scum have a godfather, what did you think about that suggestion? Or was one of your buddies inno'ed?

Cop is not inherently town, scum could get cop, although rolecop is very much more likely for scum than alignment cop. IC is conftown. Scum can't be conftown. Scum getting IC would mean an alignment change. That's what I meant with IC being inherently town.

It's possible there's a Godfather, but like I said before someone's going to have to show me convincing reasons as to why either AA or Pistachion would be a Godfather before I doubt Ice's results.

As far as this setup is concerned, Cop is a useless role for scum. It does absolutely nothing for them and it makes no sense for that possibility to exist.

[Alchemist21]

Can you link to Numbers Mafia? I'd like to see how that game was balanced.

[Alchemist21]

Hmm...

UNVOTE:

I want to look over that game and review AA's play with what Wanderer just said in mind. I'm starting to think Wanderer is Town.

[Alchemist21]

It's possible there's a Godfather, but like I said before someone's going to have to show me convincing reasons as to why either AA or Pistachion would be a Godfather before I doubt Ice's results.

I don't want to discredit ICE or his results, but nowhere did ICE specifically say that anyone was cleared by him so all we can do is assume his results from how he posted and like I said, so far only Pistachion seems like an actual clear to me. Maybe ICE thought scum wouldn't tunnel town 2 Days in a row and assumed All Alone was town because of that? See, that's how my brain works. For others it might be easy to assume and use those assumptions as facts, but I can't do that.

I still think All Alone is scum. I feel their Day 1 jump on Davsto's wagon looks like they needed to do it to prevent being scumread for not being on the wagon. There was no opinion on Davsto from All Alone all Day until near DL when All Alone suddenly wants to reach a concensus and joins on Davsto. (495) Which is funny, because Day 2 when Mario is the bigger wagon, they go for Scorpious instead, right after Pistachion went for Mario. (674) That gave me the idea that All Alone was looking more to not be on the same wagon as Pistachion so they could continue their tunnel the next Day again. Day 3 there's a weak jump back to Archmage for 'wanting to vote Scorpious but not yet voting' which was actually consistent playing from Archmage, so that read felt very out of place (767). Then decides to jump the Scorpious-wagon again but there isn't much reason, only that they may have jumped the gun on the previous Archmage-read. Now today they're voting for me and brings up points that were already relevant before Scorpious was lynched, which makes me think they wanted the Scorpious-misslynch to happen instead of coming up with a new case that might break the Day open again completely.

I think I want All Alone and Pistachion to claim after all although I'm not sure if it is much use (scum would likely just claim vt at this point?) but it's bothering me that some people are treating them as conftown while those are basically assumptions. I need more than a possible cop-inno to be convinced All Alone is town. Also, the possibility of a godfather makes the results irreliable, so while I do believe ICE had an inno on Pistachion, I'm not treating it as a 100% clear. Maybe I'm just overthinking things, I tend to do that..

Ok, I went back through All Alone's ISO with these points in mind, but I disagree with a lot of it.

This was the VC just before AA voted Davsto:

The Archmage Ludicrous (3) Wanderer-nl, alchemist, scorpious
pistachi0n(3)All Alone, 3dicerolling, syndresis
Davesto(4) ICENinja, Garmr, firebringer, archmange
Garmr (2) davesto, pist
Scorpious (1) Mario

Not Voting(1):


With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

Deadline is in November 6; 12:30pm EST

I'll keep vote counts coming more often, sorry about that.

Dave was the largest wagon, but Pistachion wasn't far behind. It is true that the vote was the first time AA have an opinion on Dave, but at the same time he switched from a wagon (on what we now know is Cop-investigated Town) that he could have tried to get more support for. He could have still given an opinion on Davsto then asked for a compromise onto Pistachion, feeling stronger about them. I think that he switched to a scum wagon when the wagons were so divided makes him more likely Town in this case.

I can see a Town player voting for Scorpious for the reason AA did. Saying he voted there because Pistachion voted Mario and he wanted to fuel a tunnel on Pistachion seems like tinfoil or BS to me.

The vote onto Archmage is a strange hiccup in AA's play. Given everything else and that he retracted it in his next post I'm inclined to think this was a case of actual derp on his part.

Saying there was no reason for the following switch back onto Scorpious is plainly BS since the reasons were already given the first time he voted Scorpious. It makes perfect sense that his vote goes back there after retracting on Archmage.

Lastly, you say AA's reason for voting you was valid before the Scorpious lynch but I don't think that's entirely true. First, there's the point that you put him to L-1 despite a concern that he would selfhammer, and that you only did so because you knew that Scorpious was Town and wouldn't selfhammer. This argument stems from the fact that Scorpious was Town, a fact which would not have been known to Town before the lynch. I will admit the second reason was valid before the lynch, that you had not provided an alternative. I think this wasn't pointed out then because AA himself thought Scorpious was scum and was more focused on him than you. You yourself said that you believe he wanted a lynch to happen, but with the implication that AA knew this was wrong which I don't think is true.

I was starting to think Wanderer was Town, but looking closer at this case on AA makes me think they're trying to doubtcast the Cop result on AA.

VOTE: Wanderer

[Alchemist21]

P.S. I looed at Numbers Mafia. I'm kinda surprised that was approved as balanced even after looking at the Review PT for it. It does put down my idea of scum having a dayvig though since it's possible scum are as underpowered against this Town as well.

[Alchemist21]

Well now when I flip Town everyone will know you hammered because you don't like the idea that AA is confTown.

My current guess is a wanderer/archmage scumteam.

[Alchemist21]

Gg everyone!

So has Monkey ever come back?

Scum played really well to win given how Town-sided the setup was.

[Alchemist21]

So did Mafia even have a Godfather or was a neighborizer all they got?

[Alchemist21]

It seems to me that every time there's a possibility of a Godfather in a setup when people figure out the Cop's innocents people immediately start assuming the GF HAS to be one of the innocents.