Mini 1747: Cinnamon Roll Mafia Endgame

[TheCow]

VOTE: swordsworth
no rvs
p1 scumget b o i s

[TheCow]

pretty sure she's being sarcastic. unless she's just legendary going for those p1 scumpicks of l e g e n d s

[TheCow]

whoa wagons are happening
i should make an actual post later

[TheCow]

Swords wagon: Vote one is me, RVS (13). I didn't personally mean anything by it other than the usual random voting, so k00l i guess. Hawke votes for Swords in retaliation for 24 (25). This is Hawke's second retaliatory rvs vote. Soap votes Swords in what I think is RVS. toolenduso votes for the sake of "waggins" (33)

hawk wagon: davesaz RVS vote. Cool. The u s u a l (11), Syndesis jumps on, looks like RVS -- no vote reason given (12). Guessing she wanted to move along with the random wagons, get things going. Something like that. Swords then votes in RVS --

at this time there is no Swords wagon

(24). Moosy sheeps the hawke wagon, citing Syndesis (though the citation was put forward in a joking manner) (30, 31)


Regarding hawke: first post was all like "hey guys, I'm new but not new lets have fun". Cool. Immediately jumps off of RVS soap and jumps onto Syndesis for what (I think is) fake OMGUS (14). Syndesis (jokingly) asks people to sheep onto the wagon and what not, hawke takes it seriously. Assumes the reason is the whole OMGUS thing (which isn't mentioned in Syndesis' post) (16)(20). Odd he isn't fighting a legitimate reason or whatever, but could have just been the tone or something, idk this guy -- never played with him before. Anyway, moving on. Hakwe jumps ship again and moves over to Moosy. This is not a very defensive maneuver at all, rather a more aggressive one (64).

Okay, after thinking through this, I have some theories, but I need a bit of info first. How good of a scum player is Hawke? His game sense? I haven't played with him, so I wouldn't know this detail -- kind of key for my theory.

[TheCow]

My thoughts on moosy are tied to my thoughts on Hawke. I'm mulling it over a bit more. Plan on thinking about it over food. I'll pop out the conclusion after that.

Every conclusion should be in two halves.

[TheCow]

k gonna break this up for my own sanity. So to begin with, the hawke wagon looks legit. I think its at L-2 or 1 right now, so I'm not gonna touch it yet just to be safe. What I don't like is all of this revoting. Always revoting to a player already on the wagon but switching it up. So as I said, the Swords wagon was the "safe" choice, since it was about equal in size, but then he switched over to moosy. My guess is that he switched wagons to preemptively board what would be a wagon.

Several players were asking others for thoughts on that specific player, so would it be too much of a stretch to think that this player would soon become a wagon? No, I don't believe so.

Anyway, I don't see why questions of this sort are being asked. Personally, I use that sort of deal to fearmonger as town or to "fluff" as scum. I don't see where this is going.

Moosy is a solid null, though. He's joking around in ways that touch on the game tangentially and I like that -- though it isn't alignment indicative.

[TheCow]

maybe he'll claim daycop

[TheCow]

VOTE: hawkleader3

I liked him better at L-1 t b h

[TheCow]

ye i think he's full of bullshit (because im a cow)

[TheCow]

the theatrics, the posturing, all the little minute details that make it looks staged as hell


an aside: I know swords from offsite. this is his first game here, so he isn't an alt

[TheCow]

hawkleader3, what's your wpm?

[TheCow]

Word per minute. Typing speed.

[TheCow]

http://typing-speed-test.aoeu.eu/?lang=en

let me know when you finish

[TheCow]

Thank god. Claim time. My claim................is jailkeeper. That's why I was nervous before. I didn't want to be suspected of killed easily on the first day before my powers were put to good use. Oh well. It seems as if it's no use. I deal with pressure, I get voted on. I ignore pressure, I get voted on. So now it seems like everyone's just trying to find out who my scum partner is at this point because it's confirmed I'm scum. If this doesn't change your mind, I'm afraid nothing will.

Did you type this post on mobile?

[TheCow]

So the post took you up to two minutes to write -- assuming no prep time -- and so he could have written the post within the four minutes after he was put to L-1.

"93 words", "53 WPM".

[TheCow]

UNVOTE:

Need to research the player.

[TheCow]

I was looking to see if it would automatically confirm it. Seeing as the result came up negative, that means it could be yes or no -- as opposed to a confirmed yes.

[TheCow]

Open498 - A total of four posts before replacement. Fire Goon. Punctuation is different, phrasing is different, etc. Latest game before leaving the site. No introduction post.
Micro280 - 12 posts before replacement. Town aligned.

Hello guys, I always like to give a short introduction of myself at the start of the game because I feel weird not doing it. I am hawkleader3, but you may call me by any name that pops into your head at the moment or whatever is easiest to type (Hawk, HL3, Hawkleader, Confucius, etc.). I have played a total of 3.5 newbie games (.5 was when I replaced in as scum but the town got a perfect win. The game ended in a week), but since then, I have been off of this site for a good 6 months, so this could be considered my return. This is my first micro game thus also being my first game using this setup (which I think I will like BTW) and I wish everyone the best of luck.

Game lines up.
N1360(SE) - 26 posts. Town. Survived to endgame. Another introduction post. asdf asdf asdf too bored


===

Hawk, you've been on mobile for much of this game, I presume? I'd keep going but I'm damn lazy. Everything lines up with town!hawk. I'd recommend an unvote.

[TheCow]

I read through all of his games played on that account, didn't both writing up more than three.

[TheCow]

After my investigation, I believe Hawke has a reasonable chance of flipping town. I'd advise against voting him.

[TheCow]

I got lazy and cut the analysis short. The bottom line is that he's acting in a way that town!hawke would act. I noticed discrepancies between his scum play and his current play, based on reading his previous games. This was enough to sway my opinions.

[TheCow]

Swords is only a site-newbie, IIRC?

He has like a year experience off-site of forum mafia.

I mean, I get frustrated when people push me without a case as either alignment, so that might be just null. That said, scum caught for the wrong reasons also tend to get frustrated, but I've seen no sign of that so far.

I feel that his response has constituted more than just frustration, in particular premature defensiveness. His repeated insistence that you explain your vote, and that an unexplained accusation cannot be responded to, show how much he wants to answer your accusation to prevent his wagon from progressing any further.

You should but you are going to need more than a naked vote to do so.

By all means - construct a case.

Additionally, in posts like this tone is somewhat passive-aggressive, and I believe he is attempting to hide his frustration. This makes me think that FA_Q2 is perhaps trying to hide his fear of being voted which is even greater than he is letting on.

meh case very unconvinced

Moosy that strategy makes no sense. If he is scum fakeclaiming then leaving him alive means we might actually end up with a more clear indication that he's fakeclaiming, and then we lynch him. In the meantime we lynch somebody else, hopefully somebody who's scum. If he is town then lynching him means we've lynched a friggin' PR and we get no benefit from that PR at all.

I don't really expect you to listen to me because that doesn't seem to be your style, so how about we worry about this if anybody else is actually interested in lynching hawk.

Spoiler: ISO reads

hawk:

-Just going to skip this for now in the interest of saving time because especially this early in the game his claim preempts pretty much any other factor I could use to read him.

Soap:

-Main focus has been on me and my thing with moosy. In a surface-level way, this actually strikes me as town. When I was secretive about something in my last game, it was two townies who endlessly pushed me trying to get me to be more explicit.
-Nothing else other than that that seems alignment indicative.

FA:

-Second post (#95) he places hawk at L-1. Says hawk is trying to appease people and is ignoring mounting pressure on his slot.
-His response to hawk's claim does not address anything about the claim itself but rather continues to try to make hawk look bad. This seems scummy to me.
-Has a lot of posts where he's clearly trying to get people to talk more, which looks towny.
-Unvotes, I'm assuming because of my arguing, in #161.

Moosy:

-Expressed conviction waaay too early. Like, his second post. Then he has more conviction about more things before there's really too much of a basis for having that conviction (#30, #34, #36). I take this as more town-looking than scum, it genuinely looks like somebody who is bored with D1 and wants to try to have fun with it by being a troll.
-That also explains his cheeky response to me in #60, #61 and #62.
-The way he's doggedly sticking to his hawk vote despite multiple in-thread explanations for why this is a bad idea also seems like town...Moosy seems reckless and stubborn, and as scum it's much better to be flexible so you don't get scumread for stupid stuff.

TheCow:

-Starts doing a lot of work right off the bat, approaches the game with a drive to base reads on evidence. Tend to think this looks towny, but then it's something I do to guide my thoughts and make them look more town when I'm scum. There is one part where it looks kind of genuinely town though, and that's where he's asking hawk for his typing speed to see whether he had his claim typed up beforehand. Why this would impact his evaluation of hawk's claim I'm not sure, but TC obviously saw something behind it, and given some of the other stuff he's looked at (he did meta research and commented on a player's use of punctuation), it fits into his MO.
-He does put Hawk back at L-1 after the first person unvotes Hawk following the claim (#104), but then there were enough people who didn't immediately unvote Hawk following his claim that I don't think scum could explain all of them. Plus, you know, the unlikelihood of all three scum being on the first substantial wagon to form. So TC leans town for me.

Metrion:

-Null, only two posts and neither have anything substantial.

Sword:

-Obviously newbie, to the point where he doesn't know how to unvote. This needs to inform the read on him.
-I do think that basically preempts the scum explanation for his eager entrance to the game.
-It also makes me doubt the motivation behind posts like #47 and #97, where he seems to be looking for reasons to scumread people. Maybe this is just him learning to scumhunt.
-So null, basically.

ira:

-Also very newbish.
-#76 seems somewhat towny to me. He's exhibiting paranoia of a lot of different players and I kind of don't think such a new scum player would think to do fake pre-flip associatives.
-Posts like #77 and #158 demonstrate an openness to ira's thought process that strikes me as town as well.
-Interaction with hawk slot could come from scum, though. His vote on hawk in #76 put hawk at L-2, and his unvote was made in response to my urging people to unvote. It's kind of like I gave him an excuse to.

Chaotic:

-Nothing substantial, null.

Syndesis:

-Has a clearly self-doubting attitude about scumhunting, which I think looks towny. Some examples: in #105, asking if somebody thought it was a good idea to lynch a claimed PR, in #110 beginning a sentence by saying he doesn't like a post and then reversing and saying it's fine.
-Yeah it just seems like he's not very sure of himself, which I think he would be more self-conscious about as scum.

dave:

-Has several posts that kind of look like he's trying to interact with people to get them to look scummy but doesn't really want to draw attention to himself, as well as posts where he's just kind of interacting without giving thoughts on the game. Examples of the former would be #38, #42, #92 and #93. Examples of the latter include #37, #39 and #153.

Too few scumreads right now, which could be a product of scum being in {metrion, chaotic, sword}, but I expect this to improve as we go along.

Right now I think dave looks bad. May do some meta work on him, but only so as to find out whether he also posts like this as town...when I tried to look for patterns that could indicate scum or town in meta work in my last game, it didn't go so well.

VOTE: dave

Exactly. It's because hawk is solved over time that we should kill him right now as that makes the most sense.

what you huh no what why what pls

As for the reads in the above quote, gonna just give my thoughts in a second when I reread them...
Meh. I don't like read walls. I guess these are passable for prelim reads.

Spoiler:

Chaotic Neutrality (null): No read on him until he makes his post later on his reads (I feel for him. That's a lot of reading).

Davesaz (null): Love this guy as a player. Asks a lot of good questions to get reads on people like "what's your reason for this" or "please explain in detail". He seems the most experience although CN has been on since 2010 and I haven't read his posts yet. He's being patient with his voting and I respect that. My read on him is null mainly because I haven't seen him respond to pressure because he has had no pressure.

FA_Q2 (slightly town): Again, I love those question marks. He states claims and makes reasons for his claims as well like any scum hunter should. He has been targeted once before as scum and dealt with it splendidly (and by that I mean better than I first handled it). He has not made any clear definitive posts that I can point to and say "Boom. This makes him town," but I can expect a post from FA_Q2 to swing me that way at anytime.

Iraonavp (town): post 76 and post 77 say it all. He is making reads on everyone, hinting but not jumping to conclusions. I especially love reading the exclamation marks in his posts because it makes me feel like I'm reading a mystery novel! I do not agree with his voting of FA_Q2 because I believes that when there are real suspects of scum out there, voting him for no reason really grinds his gears. Anyways, although I do not agree with Iraonavp's statements, I understand his reasons and all of his posts. Town.

Meitron (null): Someone has to be the lst guy to get the memo that we weren't RVSing. Maybe he chose to RVS to show how he doesn't believe any arguments that were made up until that point. That would be cool. He unvotes, the V/LA.

MoosyDoosy (scum): I have to read his votes neutrally and pretending I'm not Hawkleader3. Sure. During the time he voted me, I was awkward with my intros and backed off Sydnesis early after being pressed. In the early stages of the game, it's enough to call me scummy. Since then, he has read three different people Syndesis (who started up my bandwagon and has been town-like ever since), Iranoavp (who as I said earlier. Clearly town), Hawk, Hawkleader3, and me. It seems like he wants me to be lynched. Maybe because I'm a PR? Maybe he is too lazy to go back to ISO people to look for scum and it's easier to just say Hawk is scum? Whatever it is, I see him as slightly scummy under normal circumstances, but because it's hard finding scum in other people in this game, it makes him look extra scummy.

SoapBar (slightly town): Hasn't posted a lot of substance, but again. Lots of questions that he asks. He gave some reads of his and the second half of his posts were him talking to himself. It's not a lot of posts, but the more reading I see from people, the more town I perceive people to be.

Swordsworth (null): He's voted and stated why he has voted. He didn't respond to pressure on bandwagoning against him, but it feels like he was posting more when it was safer. There isn't a big enough sample size to confirm this, but it made him took a little suspicious. But since his active reading counteracts this scum suspicion, it leaves me with a null read on him.

Syndesis (slightly town): When i first save her couple of posts, I was like "OMG this girl is boastful and it needs to stop. Please be scum!" and her overwhelming confidence that I was scum made me angry. I couldn't tell if she was joking or that confident in her abilities. Once I got over the fact that she wasn't scum, she seems slightly town to me. She is kind of like Davesaz in that i want to see how she responds to pressure. But with the way she acts right now, I can assume how she would act if she was accused

TheCow (slightly town): If he reads every scum victim like he reads me and studies me, this guy is for sure town! the WPM thing was slightly weird and if I, A PR town, was lynched based off how consistent my typing speeds are? I would've left the forum for a little while. He did lots of research, but Cow. I don't think I act the same as I did years ago. I was 14-15 years old when I played those games. I'm 18 now. This strategy would've been brilliant had my games been consistent. Kudos for the effort for reading through my games.

Toolenduso (town): I have to admit I overlooked Tool a lot because he posted long posts when I didn't have the time to read them. After reading his posts now, I see him as town. I had a problem in the beginning when he said sword was the most suspicious for having an eager to please entrance when my entrance looked more that way than anyone's, but of course I wasn't going to tell him this with me being close to lynched. I let it go. Since then, he has asked a lot of questions and has scum hunted well. He knows when to hold them and knows when to fold them. He also gave his ISOs. Nothing toolenduso has done except post 53 seems scum-like at all.

Let me know if anyone has any questions about my reads. Thanks for your patience. This took way longer than expected. Hahaha

ye I'm probably just biased against early reads, because these are mehhhhhhh too

Uh, just for the record, none of my page 1 posts were serious.

The fact you have to specify this astounds me.

We've had a good amount of fireworks with the Hawk runup and claim. I think we should be looking for subtle opportunism getting onto that wagon.

I intend on doing this when I get a chance.

davesaz, thoughts on iranoavp?

What's the point of a question like this?

===

moosy is pinging me lost and confused newb town, but I'll research that and see what I get.

Waiting on that BTP replacement too t b h

[TheCow]

VOTE: toolendeuso

[TheCow]

VOTE: toolendeuso

You uh

Wanna expand on that thought?

not really but i probably have to later

[TheCow]

Let's discuss Scum Moosy. He's super scum. Why is he still alive?

If you want to dayvig him, be my guest.

I'm liking this comfy toolenduso wagon rn, it has heated seats

[TheCow]

ye if there's a dayvig out there, pls shoot moosy

[TheCow]

prodge

[TheCow]

On a trip, no access today/limited access

[TheCow]

v/la 28th

[TheCow]

I was right about the claim being fake :lbj

Swords was probs a vig shot. Mafia couldn't have seen him as a NK, and NK has no reason to hunt a quickhammerer like that. Besides, he never claimed PR, so the hake attack made more sense. JK means it'd be our TP and be exposed.

So ye, mafia, vig respectively.

[TheCow]

NK=SK -- neutral killing. Mixing up my lingo, sorry.

[TheCow]

This NKA is pretty shaky because there's only one datapoint, but yeah -- I'm thinking Mafia/Vig. There's still a chance of a SK or two Mafias, but this is my current thoughts on the matter. I'll do some more analysis of actual players later. Tired from reading atm.

[TheCow]

VOTE: iraonavp
wagoning for the sake of the gamestate. I prefer this wagon over the other one. Content soontm