Mini 1752: Back to December (Game Over)

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: TKoE

Hi guys!

[Raskolnikov]

Elyse, scum trying to frame someone with the NK usually aren't going to push the logic themselves. They wait for Town to pick up on it and then agree with the Townie who says it. If I thought anyone was trying to frame Llama, I'd probably wait to see who agreed with the first one to post the logic.

Do people actually do that? Avoiding NKing who you think would be the best town player in the hope that people would wagon him for not dying seems rather unreliable.

[Raskolnikov]

Status: Impatient
Accelerating Game, Standby...
3
2
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VOTE: Alchemist

[Raskolnikov]

Maybe I'm giving AJ too much credit but I thought he exaggerated on purpose to try to bring the game out of RVS.

[Raskolnikov]

I'm not so familiar with any of you so far, so I'll be ignoring meta and arguments about meta (which seem to comprise 90% of this thread) for the short term.

MattP keeps talking about himself rather than others, and I think the level of guardedness I feel from him is a bit unnecessary given only had an RVS vote on him for most of the game. OMGUS on tkoe doesn't help.
VOTE: Mattp

[Raskolnikov]

Gonna apologize just once for my inexperience. I'd have queued for more newbies instead but I'm unable to until I have a non-newbie game finished.

Yeah I misused OMGUS: I meant I didn't like his retaliation to TKOE /shrug

Is being over-defensive really not alignment indicative guys?

[Raskolnikov]

1.)

Raskolnikov, please answer LlamaFluff's question in Post #47.

Your "impatience" is especially strange since in the

ten minutes

before your post there were three votes thrown down by three players.

It's actually funny. I was impatient because I thought the votes and gamestage wasn't that escalated/serious at the time, and later I found out I wrong about that!

[Raskolnikov]

You still didn't really answer why you decided to vote there instead of your previous vote (or even why you voted Alch). Something changed and I want to know what actually changed.

Because first vote was pure RVS whereas this was partially-serious after what AJ said, which seemed like the first thing of some substance up to that point in the game. If you look at the game before the post previous to that vote (30) there was just a pretty silly exchange between Elyse and Matt which I didn't see as that serious at the time (17,18,20).

[Raskolnikov]

Still don't like matt. Elyse vs SO is meh, probably TvT. Today was busy for me, but I hope to get some work done here tomorrow. Sorry guys.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: AJ L-3

[Raskolnikov]

In fact, his iso only has neutral or positive things to say about me. His sudden change for no reason could very easily be coming from scum.

Because you weren't scummy until then. I didn't like your 143 153 158 and especially 163. Too much meta, wifom, and trying to overcomplicate things. You had so much energy and put almost none of it into your scumhunt (of Tkoe at the time).

[Raskolnikov]

P.S. I thought doctors were supposed to always claim VT?

[Raskolnikov]

It's not that writing long posts about side topics and is bad, but you were doing so at the expense of pursuing your then-lead Tkoe. It's like you wanted to stifle discussion when you dismiss the other wagons but you didn't really push alternatives with nearly the same effort.

Now since I have voted you and you disliked that, you are trying for me but I'm still not that convinced.

[Raskolnikov]

@Raskolnikov - There a couple of questions waiting for you in Post 175. Any reason you glossed over them while you answered others?

Missed them.

Is being over-defensive really not alignment indicative guys?

How much experience do you have playing mafia elsewhere? Have you read mafia games or the mafiawiki before joining? Judging by your posts so far, it seems you have at least some experience and have played mafia and scumhunted before. So why do you ask us whether it is alignment-indicative rather than argue your belief that it is?

Elyse vs SO is meh, probably TvT.

Explain in detail why "TvT."

You'll find all my little experience through looking at my posts in my profile. I do think being over-defensive is bad which is why I vote people for it (surprise!) but I didn't expect to find in this game so many people saying it isn't. I think town shouldn't care too much what others think and focus on scumhunting rather than making themselves look good. I said probably TvT because they're pretty much my strongest townreads, whereas I suspect people more like AJ, yourself and Alchemist.

Still wanna lynch AJ tbh

[Raskolnikov]

I think OW was asking why you are townreading me and SO

It's weird, I try to scumhunt with reasoning but townread on mostly gut. I like you because I agree with you almost everything and so moreso the approach. Even when you try to lynch SO your methodology is good I just think he's more a hesitant townie than a scum. I can't really blame you for settling on someone who was meh because there was a scarcity of people acting actually scummy at the time. SO is the weaker townread in my case but I really see him as an anxious town trying to overanalyze and filled with paranoia because he can't find something that feels right. I do think he should update his vote and talk about modern events right now though I think I said the tvt thought ages ago.

[Raskolnikov]

Sorry for not having as much time as I thought I would have. Things have been rough but I'll try to be efficient.

AJ I don't have much to say about since last time. Still wanna lynch.
Also, people are saying lack of CC makes AJ look better. How often do doctors CC? If it looks like the guy can be lynched anyways would a doctor cc? I've never been doctor but I think if I was I might be greedy and see if I can lynch without dying for it. People didn't like last time I asked about VT thing but meh, I don't have experience with this, I want to know and I think I'd probably violate the ongoinggames rules if I asked it outside this thread.

SO flipped from towny to scum from his triple post, 263 264 and especially 266. First he questions Matt on him being fine with an AJ wagon, he goes over why he thinks the AJ wagon is bad. I think his defence of AJ is a bit OTT tbh and I'll try to explain. He says he went through a full reread of AJ and found his play more awkward and hard-to-read than scummy, and also didn't like the wagon itself for speed and scummyness of votes. I didn't realize right away but he doesn't actually have reason to townread AJ. He talks a ton about how how AJ acted strange and how it's not necessarily scum based on that but really there's nothing to suggest AJ is town either so I don't understand why he reads him medium town and I think he went too far for him. If I was writing about someone like SO did AJ my conclusion would be more null than town and I wouldn't mind the wagon that much on a null either, so his read and asking everyone to go back and double-check theirs is weird to me. But 266 I just really hate. He has 4 people he wouldn't mind lynching and I want to look at his focus here. He starts with his #4, how he doesn't like his last post. Next is his #3 Elyse who he pretty much says he likes her recent posts but doesn't want to change his read: I don't like "I'm not going to call town or even not-scum quite yet, but Unvote - I don't think we'll get an Elyse lynch today." because it sounds weird af, like though her recent posts are good he doesn't want to back off anyways and like he would rather lynch Elyse if it was possible today, like he's almost settling for less. I think if you have someone at #3 whose recent posts are looking better and better you shouldn't want to lynch them so much, and that having to wagon your #1 over your #3 would be a great thing, but meh. He brings up really not liking LLama's post (with his AJ vote) next. Then alc his #2 and finally me. What he actually says about me is understandable, its his focus I hate. He critiques posts from Tkoe, LLama, Alchemist and me, and I don't see him prioritizing his effort on #1/2 any more than his #4, him not liking Llama's post, or his AJ defence. Yeah it's not concrete things I can prove, it's mostly bad vibes but that's how I feel.

Alchemist I actually don't mind. He doesn't like me for my posts being bare and low-content (and they are bare/low content since I haven't had enough time), and scumreading someone based on low-value is valid and I think it's even a decent thing to judge alignment most of the time, even if it's wrong about me in this specific case. I like him focusing on what's relevant to what he thinks is right: regardless of him being wrong about me he's going about it like he really believes in it and wants the lynch so I respect that, unlike SO who I think is trying to do literally everything and engage everyone at the same time. Same for when he was on AJ before me, and before that Matt. Overall he's alright and I don't want him lynched.

Still really like Elyse though I don't agree with her going from AJ to alc her forthrightness is charming and I feel transparency in her thoughts and actions. I haven't had this kind of read on people so strong on who turned out to be scum yet in my limited experience and I hope not here either.

tl;dr will lynch AJ / SO. I don't think I'll have time to in-depth more people before the deadline but I'll answer questions quick if I see them. If someone who isn't me/aj/so/alc/elyse gets magically fast wagoned before deadline I'll look at them but otherwise prob not.

[Raskolnikov]

Is anyone down for an SO lynch since AJ isn't happening?

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: Supreme O

[Raskolnikov]

See 286.

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: AJ

[Raskolnikov]

Rask is throwing his vote anywhere there seems to be some movement. I'll leave my vote here for the next couple of hours at least - I still prefer this wagon to either Alchemist or AJ.

That's not true I don't want to lynch alchemist.

[Raskolnikov]

This lynch is bad and my scumreads are on the wagon.

It's comments like this, along with Llama's supreme confidence in an Aj scumflip, that makes me think they may well be scum together.

If that's the case I still think AJ would be better. What I'm afraid of happening now is that AJ is alive tomorrow (cuz scum) and people will question if he could still be town but scum went somewhere else because they expect us to lynch him, and we're in a similar situation but with a day and 2 lives wasted. Even if you think there's a small chance of town AJ I think lynching him puts us in a better situation for day 2 than getting someone like Llama. Flipping AJ would help us with Llama but I don't see what we would learn from a Llama flip.

Not moving from AJ.

[Raskolnikov]

Tkoe's better than Llama

VOTE: Tkoe

[Raskolnikov]

VOTE: AJ

[Raskolnikov]

I think I'll go for a big play today (day 2), and by that I mean tomorrow.

[Raskolnikov]

In addition to what I said yesterday, there's also the fact that TKoE and Rask never interacted and barely formed stances on each other, and I noticed their votes together on Matt. Rask was the first vote on TKoE yesterday, but it was at a time when it looked doubtful anyone other than Llamafluff was getting lynched and I suspect it was done more to look good by being off the Llama lynch, and if TKoE was lynched later on he could point to it as evidence he's Town (this also makes me think Llama is Town here)

I voted TkoE because AJ wasn't getting lynched and the wagon on Llama and you were bad so I didn't want them to go through. I'll take a lynch on someone I know is vaguely null-scum over one of my townreads anyday. You're either affected by confirmation bias and tunneling me too hard or are actually trying to frame me at this point, which is sad. SO is piggybacking on you in 444 cuz he's opportunistic scum.

[Raskolnikov]

Alright, here's the big play.

AJ is almost guaranteed not to be a doctor because I'm a protective role as well. I forgot about my role until near the end of deadline and I thought we'd be able to lynch him without my saying it, but now it's okay. I've done some research since I'm not very experienced with setups, and I found doc + my role isn't in many setups because of they can go on each other and neither can die.

Even if you end up lynching me today because of alchemist's dumb wagon and scum like SO hopping on, just lynch AJ tomorrow and we should have only 1 scum left after that (prob SO). But better we lynch him today.

[Raskolnikov]

@Raskolnikov -

I want to see a full claim and night action results.

Bodyguard. N1 went on nobody, N2 I actually went on AJ on the off chance he was really was doc and attacked. If he actually was doc and I died I figured you guys would put it together that I was probably on him. I don't really mind outing to 1 for 1 tbh, this role is pretty lame and if I get killed tonight it's literally the same if I pulled off a save anyways.

[Raskolnikov]

Was your lack of a N0 target intentional or due to "forgetfulness?"

I really don't believe this claim, not only because of the lack of a N0 target but because he claims to have protected the very same player he was trying to lynch without having to counterclaim. If a bodyguard had been NK'd it probably would have been an autolynch for AJ since nobody would believe a doc and bodyguard are in the same game.

Dude are you serious? Protecting someone n1 is pointless. If you're successful you trade a BG for a VT which isn't worth it, and I don't really enjoy dying night 1 especially in a night start game.

And I am pretty sure if AJ was really town and I got NK'd, people would realize it was either defending AJ or possibly a direct attack to frame, and it would actually have been better for him as opposed to autolynch as you say. Complaining that me dying there would cause autolynch if he really was town is a bit ridiculous: me dying last night would give town information and it's not my responsibility to judge how well people will use that information. More information is always better for the town, and the lack of attack made me more sure about this lynch.

I don't care if you don't believe me though, I'll trade 1 for 1 if I have to since we're in a good state with that day 1 lynch.

[Raskolnikov]

Townreading Xtoxm, Eylse and Llama to varying extents. Alchemist is really stubborn tunneling town and his actions would be ridiculously bold from scum (and would screw him if his wagon on me actually went through).
I'm not sure about OW and CKD, and SO I was scumreading yesterday and hasn't changed much today.

What makes things difficult is that all 3 of SO OW and CKD were on similar positions with the TKoE wagon.
OW brought TKoE to L-1 then unvoted, SO then brought TkoE to L-1 and finally CKD hammered about an hour before the deadline. I expect a scum to late-hop on for towncred if it looks like the lynch will 100% go through on their scumbuddy. I think CKD looks good from the last minute hammer as I think scum might risk waiting that tiny bit of time (~1h?) for the chance of no lynch; OW and SO are looking worse from their involvement. Only one of them can actually be scum though, and I'm not sure how to narrow it down yet.

[Raskolnikov]

My bad, I actually did just look at the votes themselves and the VCs. You do look better from the actual discussion and I'm leaning more to the others from it. I actually noticed in the reread the association between TkoE and SO feels a bit off? SO had TkoE in his reads as a 4th pick to lynch in 266 but focused on him for most of the post, and TkoE has SO as his vote earlier (who wasn't in danger of being lynched) and then unvoted and had him as strong townread "obv-town" soon after which was weird.
CKD on the other hand didn't interact with TkoE much until hammering him for not believing the claim, and TkoE said almost nothing about CKD either. Ugh. I really just want it to be tomorrow already so we can figure something out via the massclaim.

[Raskolnikov]

I really expected a third scum this game.

[Raskolnikov]

I thought it was 12 players 3 scum and some strong power roles for town to balance and for night 1 fun stuff.