***Mini Normal 1744 - Country Music Mafia - Game Over***

[Aquanim]

Will we get an active person or naw?

signs point to yes

is TheCow at L-1? if yes, can somebody unvote while I get up to speed?

Also, can somebody give me the short version of who claimed what, when and why? In particular I am interested in knowing why a whole mess of PRs are dead.

[Aquanim]

Hello Frozen Angel, who do you think I should be voting? Make a case or point me to one, please.

(Nearly read all the thread, most of the way through d2.)

[Aquanim]

ok I've read the thread, here's my analysis:

Spoiler:

I mean, I knew this game was a dumpster fire when I saw the list of flips, but this really is impressive...

I'm blacklisting Roleplay
RC got what he deserved for claiming then unclaiming roles once too often, eventually nobody believes the boy who cries wolf
on the other hand I think Keyser is a pretty cool guy, eh is dank memelord and doesnt afraid of anything
the Titus shot might be worth thinking about but no obvious reason anyone in particular would shoot her comes to mind

For serious though, I have a few questions for people at this point.

You may think you've answered these questions already but I've had a handful of hours to assimilate everything that's happened in the last ~four weeks, and I don't remember every post. If you have answers already in the thread, please direct me to them (post links or numbers) or repeat yourself. Some of these questions are kinda boring but I want to have a conversation.

@MarioManiac4

Can you go back to the things TheCow actually contributed (early d1 mostly) and tell me what you think they say about his alignment? Try to avoid confirmation bias.

@golden009

please come back
Please make an argument for who I should be voting for.

@Frozen Angel

Who would you lynch today besides Acryon and why (remembering there are 3 scum)? Please don't make an associative case.
Also I'd like a more detailed opinion on Mario.

@Dwlee99

Who would you lynch today besides TheCow and why (remembering there are 3 scum)? Please don't make an associative case.
Also I'd like a specific opinion on Golden.

@Acryon

Please explain why you think Mario is scum and when you came to this conclusion.
Also I'd like to know what your read on Golden is, and how it has evolved over time.

@Bji

I'm not interested in lynching a greencheck unless we get one or preferably two scumflips that aren't Godfather, but you're not totally off the hook.
Please make an argument for who I should be voting for.

@whoever replaces cow

good luck dude/dudette

@Mala

please impress me
Please make an argument for who I should be voting for.

[Aquanim]

the Titus shot might be worth thinking about but no obvious reason anyone in particular would shoot her comes to mind

well a rolecop flip after he fake claimed twice and busying titus whole day long , I was thinking about Titus as a pr (town or mafia) myself after RC flip. Why shouldn't mafia be?

As I understand it, RadiantCowbells claimed an innocent on BJI and claimed to know nothing about Titus, so I don't think the behaviour of RC affects Titus' role.
Obviously mafia would know if Titus were a mafia PR, and given that a Doctor, Roleblocker and Ascetic Cop have already flipped (reasonably powerful roles) I don't expect town has any more powers.

That being said, possibly they felt Titus' reactions to RC made her obvious town, and many of the other townies are/were either lurking or contentious. Unless there's something I've missed Titus was probably a reasonable shot for just about any scumteam, so there is probably nothing to be learned from it.

Similarly Keyser was the obvious n1 shot regardless of his role so I doubt there's anything to be learned from that.

whats your reads?

Still working on them, in particular I need answers to some of the questions above to clarify things.

[Aquanim]

FEE FI FO FUM, YOU BETTER RUN AND HIDE
I SMELL THE BLOOD OF AN OBVIOUS CONTRADICTION

that was 3 /4 days ago! I'm fucking rereading the thread! answer the case on you instead of making NOISE

I understand that the town atmosphere in this game has resembled a flaming pile of poop so far, but I'd appreciate it if everyone toned down the swearing, and showed all the other players in the game respect (even if you scumread them).

I understand that this was not the style of Roleplay nor Cowbells but they are now gone. We don't need to play like them any more.

[Aquanim]

To be absolutely clear, while I have quoted Frozen Angel there, that is a message to everyone. I don't like that the tone of Mario's post was baiting a meaningless poop-flinging fight, either.

I intend to salvage this game, and that means we are going to play nice and create a constructive town atmosphere. I hope you all understand this.

[Aquanim]

@MarioManiac4

: Did you do that further reading in TheCow's ISO?

[Aquanim]

@Dwlee99

Who would you lynch today besides TheCow and why (remembering there are 3 scum)? Please don't make an associative case.
Also I'd like a specific opinion on Golden.

I would lynch mario just because of RC's want to but their recent posts seem decently townie and they agree with me on cow and maybe acryon because I'm town reading FA and they want them lynched.

Golden is just null cause they don't have enough posts to actually get a read.

So you want to lynch Mario because RadiantCowbells wanted to, except you are reassessing that read now and think Mario is town? That sequence of thoughts doesn't seem to add up to somebody you want lynched.

Can you come up with any others?

[Aquanim]

@MarioManiac4

: Did you do that further reading in TheCow's ISO?

I think you missed this,

@MarioManiac4

.

[Aquanim]

Mala's kinda really sick rn

So all my plans this weekend got ruined due to it

You're going to have to clarify something for me here...

when you refer to "Mala", is that you or your cat?

[Aquanim]

...
I trust RC's reads but mm is with me on cow. Everything is kind of conflicting.

Do you have previous experience with RC, and can you point me to it?

(My previous experience with RC and games I read of his at the time indicate he's the worst townie I've ever seen across multiple sites. No joke.)

[Aquanim]

I guess my point is here that you Dwlee are going to have to convince me that your sheeping Cowbells' reads is a concept that makes any sense whatsoever.

[Aquanim]

Lovely.

I don't like pre-flip associative arguments.

Independent of your read on TheCow

what is your read on Mario's play today?

[Aquanim]

I'm feeling a bit jilted right now, Mala.... can we talk?

[Aquanim]

@whoever replaces cow

good luck dude/dudette

Thanks babe.

84 pages was a bit much, I read to page 11 then from start of today to now.

If I were you I'd aim to get through day 1 eventually (up to about page 47). There's a few kind of interesting things in day 2 but iirc it's mostly RadiantCowbells (a flipped slot) pulling stupid roleclaim shenanigans, pretty painful to read.

[Aquanim]

The FA slot? "lol newb, u scum bro"

never call me a newbie again. or scum for this shitty reason. go check my wiki page for more details.

and please don't make me angrier - or I will burn this thread ...

You know this is a quote of TheCow talking about the person who you replaced? Nothing to do with you (or even Mario) at all.

I'd like to ask you to try just not answering people who you think are trying to make you angry. I promise you I can tell when they are trying, even if you don't point it out.

Also,

please

don't threaten to ruin the game. I really don't like it when people make threats like that.

[Aquanim]

I was referring to myself in third person

Can we pretty pretty please with a cherry on top talk about the game? Anything about it you like.

[Aquanim]

@bji

, something I just noticed:

95: "supercool898 is half way between lost and confused town, and scum for me right now." What? How can a player be halfway between lost and confused town, but still scum? And in the end, he

was

town. So this looks like an opportunistic (and clumsy) effort to justify voting for someone that TheCow knew was town but wanted to vote for anyway. In the end he voted supercool with no explanation at L-3 which is a very comfy place to park a vote with little suspicion, and left it there until super was mislynched. Never explained the vote at all, ever.

I read TheCow's sentence there as:

"supercool898 is halfway between {lost and confused town} and {scum} for me right now."

It's still not a very convincing scumread but not quite as bad as your interpretation of the sentence would suggest. Cow's vote for supercool also came a long time later, though I haven't worked out why he voted then (unless it was a sheep of Mala's vote).

Just some food for thought. I still want to talk to Acryon and I'm not in a hurry to push a lynch until all the replacements are in.

[Aquanim]

For the record, then:

@Acryon

Please explain why you think Mario is scum and when you came to this conclusion.
Also I'd like to know what your read on Golden is, and how it has evolved over time.

[Aquanim]

I was referring to myself in third person

Can we pretty pretty please with a cherry on top talk about the game? Anything about it you like.

Yessir. I'll be here later toniggt

Well, since later tonight appears to be after my bedtime, I'd like to hear about Dwlee. I assume from #2004 that you townread Dwlee. I do as well but I am finding it hard to find any good reasons why; all I have is feels. Can't find any particularly convincing or interesting cases/arguments/whatever in his ISO. Can you give me anything more solid? Meta or something?

[Aquanim]

@Acryon

Please explain why you think Mario is scum and when you came to this conclusion.
Also I'd like to know what your read on Golden is, and how it has evolved over time.

To be honest I don't have a great case on Mario, which is why it was my plan to just put a vote out there and see what happens. Unfortunately I was unable to be active much at all during my V/LA, so I was hoping I could push it to see what comes out but it didn't do much.

Regarding golden, I thought he was scummy D1, then he pretty much disappeared for most of the rest of the game as far as I recall so my read on him kind of did too. Especially in this game with the number of lurkers and replacement we have had, it doesn't make sense to go after them because we could easily lynch them all and not even get one scum.

Okay, so where do you want to go today in terms of the lynch?

[Aquanim]

...
Aquanim has come in and tried to take the reins of town leader. But nothing that Aquanim has done has removed my scum read on that slot. I would lynch this slot today as a second choice to the TheCow/Marcrell slot.

Noted. Not much else for me to say to that.

...
Really not much has happened today to change my reads at all; the only major event for me was doing a re-read of TheCow's ISO and realizing how scummy his wagon interactions were. Which is why he remains my top scum read. And the game is moving at a snail's pace as the replacements (understandably) cannot digest 84 pages of history to form reads, and the rest of us have mostly said everything that we wanted to say in those 84 pages already. Stalemate.

I believe the game will move again when the last replacement is in. There is little good and some harm in making waves before that point. (In particular, seeing what they make of the game without benefit of seeing which way the wind is blowing will be valuable.)

[Aquanim]

@bji

: I had a look at your case on Roleplay from #1896 and I think I can answer most of it.

Spoiler: Bji's case on Roleplay from #1896

...
Someone also explain to me how two days in a row, RolePlay was instrumental in: weakening the wagon on FA when it got to L-2/L-1, and immediately driving the counter wagon to a mislynch?

Simple: Roleplay changed his mind about the FA wagon being scum after his d1 push. If I had to guess (since I don't think or play like Roleplay this is unreliable) I think the big push RP made on FA day 1 was a reaction bait for a fair bit of its duration.

RolePlay posts 925, 933, and 938 look to me like spreading doubt on the Frozen Angel wagon that was at L-2 at the time.

Since he townread FA at that point spreading doubt on that wagon seems entirely reasonable.

Not to mention the whole begging Keyser to give him a reason to leave the FA wagon which I already mentioned soon after it happened.

This was strange and to explain it I have to get personal about Roleplay. I think he gets off on bullying people weaker than him and has respect/fear for those stronger. Since Keyser was a strong townie Roleplay wanted his approval. I'm not a psychologist, take that with some salt.

Then RolePlay joins the Supercool wagon, hard; we all saw how anxious he was to get super lynched at the end of Day 1.

yyyyeah I dunno, I don't think I'd have lynched Super, and RP never explained this all that well. In fact,

>>> why did anyone lynch Super <<<

? I'm gonna go have a look at that...

In Day 2, RolePlay started out lumping RC and FA together. See post 1478 where his town reads are "Mario Maker. Cow. FA. RC. Titus." They're right next to each other.

That seems pretty weaksauce to me in terms of proving RP was lumping RC and FA together. For that matter, I don't see how lumping together the two people responsible for bad fakeclaims is scummy.

RolePlay made many statements indicating that he believed that both RC and FA were town who fake claimed (posts 1483 and 1484). RolePlay also clearly stated that Lynch All Liars cannot be applied mindlessly (see post 1797, and even did a nice little flip-flop on FA to demonstrate this (post 1595, followed by post 1604, where he states that he

doesn't do policy lynches

)).

But then RolePlay

drives hard on a lynch of RC

solely for

lynch all liars

which is a

policy lynch

.

Policy lynching a compulsive fakeclaimer like Cowbells is a different thing to policy lynching somebody for lying once. I also don't think the RadiantCowbells lynch was purely a liar policy lynch. Cowbells had contributed incredibly little to the thread beyond stupid role shenanigans; no good reads or cases, etc. There was much more reason to townread FA IMO. Cowbells was a waaayyyyyy better lynch than Frozen, and I don't think it's scummy for RP to believe that.

Now consider the end of Day 2 theatrics between RC and RolePlay. RC we know was town, and had a good reason to be frustrated because he was quickly mislynched without being given an opportunity to defend himself (although I think we can all say that he brought it on himself with that awful gambit). What reason did RolePlay have to be so vitriolic? Could be frustrated town right? But why lash out so hard at RC when he himself was part of the problem by not following his own stated policy of not doing policy lynches?

I don't know about Roleplay but the concept of somebody fakeclaiming all day 1, then fakeclaiming vanilla cop with a redcheck, then unclaiming vanilla cop, then claiming ascetic, then claiming to be bulletproof as well, while actually being an ascetic cop, triggers me pretty damn hard.

I'm nearly certain his rage at the end of d2 was not a calculated plan by Roleplay for the reason that

if he'd thought it through he would have known he'd be modkilled/forcereplaced for what he said then

.

RolePlay had essentially the same reason to vote FA and RC (because both were fake claiming). He had them both right next to each other during his "these two are town fake claiming" period. But instead of going after FA, he defended her and went after RC, then acted pissed off beyond any possible rational level of human behavior to cover himself going into Day 3.

tl;dr: RC's fakeclaiming was a lot worse than that of FA, and there were many more reasons to think FA is town

The important point is this one.

Where your entire argument about Roleplay and Frozen Angel falls apart is the question

"Why did they bother?"

. What compelled RP and FA to bus each other so hard in the first place that they could only disengage with a great deal of awkwardness?

If the plan was to bus from the start then I would expect that they would be fine with one of them dying. They would not have tried to derail the bus; instead one of them would have run the wagon to completion for towncred. I don't think it's a good scum plan, but...

"We're going to bus one another super-hard and then the two of us are somehow going to try to derail it once we've hit L-1 or 2" sounds like a tremendously terrible plan. They get all of the pressure and the spotlight, and then throw away all the towncred too?

You can't even make the argument that it's to make me think what I'm saying now, because if they were both scum and the FA wagon went through despite Roleplay's switch (totally plausible) the scum are

screwed

, when they could have just not done that and let the day take its course.

I can't think of a good reason they would have decided to do it in reaction to something in the thread, either. Even if they thought their third scumbuddy was going to be lynched, why would you try to divert onto your other scumbuddy instead of onto a townie?

I can very much understand the desire to lynch Roleplay for being a prick but he's not in the slot any more so I don't think that should be relevant.

I'm gonna go look at how and why Super got lynched and get back to you on TheCow.

[Aquanim]

Thinking about it I'd prefer to give you a raincheck on my thoughts about lynching TheCow until we get that replacement. Might be important.

[Aquanim]

To be specific, I think we need every bit of information about the Golden slot that we can get.

[Aquanim]

@acryon

, I'm not sure I follow the idea behind your Mario vote earlier. So far as I can see there are two possibilities:

1) nobody's interested in a vote without much of a case, you don't learn much
2) people get excited about a Mario wagon and you have to explain why, after having made a statement this certain:

...
We are mostly screwed at this point anyway, but today is hopefully going to consist of: FA not talking because she is killing town if she is town and us lynching Mario.
...

there isn't a good case to back it up.

Am I missing something?

[Aquanim]

...
Re: Aquanim post 2112. You are very clearly asking that the game be put on hold until golden's replacement. OK I guess that's fair ... but now the game is dead while we wait for golden.
...

It's a bit unfortunate but I think it is the best course. We can still get something done until then, though. Clarify misunderstandings, things of that kind.

...
and I know its not the way dweele playing scum
...

Do you have previous experience with Dwlee? If it's not an ongoing game can I see it?

[Aquanim]

I'm here and ready to break stuff up!
Bji has already commented on the Marcrell OMGUS so I'm just going to say that that is good crap right there.
Let's talk about the aqua slot. It seems town, but;

We are not wasting extra discussion time just for golden.

I would lynch without golden or even lynch it. Don't care. Empty slot, I'm not going to let it ruin this game. You shouldn't either.

Well, I can't stop you doing whatever you like, I suppose. I don't want to make big waves until I see what the Golden slot thinks of the game before them.

I am hoping the slot becomes less "empty" by doing this. I'm not prepared to "ruin the game" by either of {giving the slot a free pass} or {lynching it without question}, either.

[Aquanim]

...
and I know its not the way dweele playing scum
...

Do you have previous experience with Dwlee? If it's not an ongoing game can I see it?

I guess I should have read a bit further before I posted this. Disregard.

[Aquanim]

...
Good. Certainly good. You know what, VOTE: Aquanim If/when I'm mislynched don't forget to check this out tomorrow. Good thing to consider.
Also going to point out...
...

I've already answered bji's case on my slot above in #2111. I don't think it's very strong at all.

It's also mostly an associative case with Frozen Angel, a slot you townread.

Given all that I need you to explain this vote, and you'd better be convincing.

[Aquanim]

this may be a double post

...

I sincerely hope that means we will get some more in-depth commentary from you, because coming in and saying two people are town (especially two that have done close to nothing for the game in terms of scumhunting) doesn't sit well with me.

@Acryon

: Which slots look better to you [than Frozen Angel and Dwlee] in terms of scumhunting?

[Aquanim]

@Frozen Angel

: Back off for a while, okay? I'm going to have a talk with these two.

@Acryon, MarioManiac

: Please sum up your read on Frozen Angel in three sentences or less. I am not interested in your opinion of Frozen as a player, I am interested in your opinion about her alignment.

[Aquanim]

Also, that's a bunch of observations, not a read (with the partial exception of 5).

If your read is 100% town, just say that. If your read is 100% scum, just say that. If your read is uncertain, give me an idea of how much uncertainty.

[Aquanim]

@Frozen Angel

TheCow tried to lynch you day 2:

VOTE: fa
lets go b o i s

FA is totally obviously scum, can we bw please?

What is your read on TheCow's slot?

[Aquanim]

So, anyone else agree/disagree about my motivation behind Aquanim's posts? At least want to see opinions on that, see if I'm just a raving crackpot or that can at least be considered.

Are you referring to the following?

...
And with {Aquanim} stepping in, it feels calculated. Lots of activity. Certainly a nice break from a lot of problems with inactivity. But I don't feel it's necessarily scum {EDIT: should this be town?} activity. Working hard, analyzing, even as scum would earn a lot of points. So basically, slot before was scum lean, I don't see entirely town motivation behind you.

(My edits for clarity are in {}.)

[Aquanim]

Beautiful. Game on.

@Dierfire

, if you could get up to speed ASAP that would be great.

[Aquanim]

This is what makes me doubt my FA town read. Seems overreactive maybe? Not sure entirely how to describe it, but it trips something that makes me nervous.

@Marcrell

: I'm not sure whether you can do this, how useful it will be, or what conclusions you'll reach, but it might be interesting.

In short: try thinking like Frozen Angel. Particularly in the context of this game, considering:

-FA's confrontation with Roleplay on d1
-FA's ongoing fight with Acryon (think about why that's happening in the way it is, too)
-FA's temprament in general (unsure if you have previous experience with her, if not maybe look up a game in her wiki)
-The general thread sentiment towards FA's actions

[Aquanim]

...
I think I answered already. If I'm going to tell you who is the scum team I say Acryon , MM and Marcell

Okay.

Myself, I don't think that Mario's push to get TheCow lynched today was a bus.

[Aquanim]

What is it then, aqua?
Who is town wjo is scum or os it tvt?

I don't know. I lean very slightly town on TheCow's slot (I'll say why when Dierfire catches up) but it is not by any means a strong read. I keep flipflopping on my Mario read. Could be either, could be neither. It not being both is still a useful observation for me.

The only reason to leave me open anyway in case SC flipped town was to try and lynch me later.

lol

I never left you! NEVER

ALL my Iso is full of hatred and rage against the scum!

Even if he is scum Acryon does not deserve "hatred and rage".

If you want to see Acryon lynched, then I suggest that you talk to other people about your read and their opinions, rather than talking to Acryon about it.

[Aquanim]

@Dierfire

: I've been feel-townreading Dwlee but I don't have a specific good reason. I will be interested to see anything more you put together in that direction.

[Aquanim]

tl;dr: I think at least one of {TheCow, Malakittens} is scum and I think Mala is the more likely lynch of the two to flip scum

---//---

Why one of TC and Mala is probably scum

My train of thought here starts with the end-of-day-1 votecount.

Final Day 1 Vote Count

supercool - Malakittens, TheCow,

titus

,

Keyser

, RolePlay, Dwlee99,

RadiantCowbells

(Lynched)

Frozen Angel - bji,

supercool

, Acryon (L-4)
Acryon - Frozen Angel (L-6)
golden009 - MarioManiac (L-6)

Not Voting: golden009

supercool was

Town Doctor

I am not seeing scum on the later part of the Supercool wagon. Keyser, Titus and Cowbells are already flipped, I have a moderate townread on Dwlee, and I'm town in the Roleplay slot. That raises the question of "where are the scum?". Ignoring bji, there are six players left.

Acryon

was stuck on Frozen Angel and the FA/RP associative case. A plausible place for scum to sit while a PR mislynch goes down.

Frozen Angel

was not against the Supercool lynch, but preferred Acryon. I think I townread this slot, though.

MarioManiac

was not posting for the entire time the Supercool wagon built up steam. Again, plausible.

Golden

was also not posting, and not even voting anybody. Also plausible.

Malakittens

and

TheCow

naked voted for Supercool about halfway through the day. TheCow didn't post for the entire time, Mala egged the Super wagon on a little. Neither ever explained their vote.

I really would like to believe that at least one of Mala/TheCow is scum for that. Since a high proportion of the other plausible scum was totally AFK the argument of "most big wagons have a scum on them" is less strong that usual, since it's possible they simply didn't have the opportunity.

However, I have a pretty good supporting argument: I cannot construct a believable scumteam out of the above six players that includes neither of Malakittens and TheCow. Given Mario's push on Golden day 1 I don't think they are scum together. Frozen is almost certainly not scum with Acryon (if she were I imagine Acryon would have gone for Roleplay rather than FA with the associative case) and seems unlikely to be scum with Mario based on this post - I don't think that Mario would make a post with that tone or that message about a FA-scumbuddy.

(The catch with that argument is the possibility of Dwlee being scum... but I think I'm prepared to disregard it for now. If Mala is town I put some weight on her townread of Dwlee; I think his style is more easily read by her methods than mine. If Mala is scum then this lynch is obviously fine even if the argument doesn't quite hold water.)

(If Dierfire's suspicions of Dwlee look like they're going somewhere interesting I may have to reassess this argument to some degree.)

It's not impossible Mala and TheCow are both scum but two naked unexplained votes on somebody for half a day is super sketchy and there was no guarantee they would not be called on it.

---//---

About TheCow's day 2 quickhammer

TheCow lulzhammered RadiantCowbells which was pretty stupid no matter his alignment... but if I had to pick one player on the site to lulzhammer it would certainly be RadiantCowbells so I have a little sympathy for it. Particularly in the context of RC's less-than-ideal hammer day 1.

I also have doubts about it as a scum play by TheCow, since I don't see a reward that justifies the risk.

If TheCow had not hammered RadiantCowbells, there was a significant possibility somebody else would, either before or after a "claim" by RC, and scum would get their cop lynch. (This assumes the scum guessed RadiantCowbells was a PR, as opposed to RC just making stuff up. If scum did not think RC had a power role I find it very hard to believe they would want RC lynched this bad, as opposed to allowing him to mess up the thread further.) At worst, if it turns out RadiantCowbells has a relevant power role and town doesn't lynch him, the doctor is dead so scum can just shoot RC.

Compare that to the situation after TheCow's hammer. Sure, scum got to lynch RadiantCowbells

and

shoot Titus, instead of (maybe) some other lynch and then shoot Cowbells. On the other hand, TheCow has turned his slot from one hiding quite effectively among the many lurkers to one under a great deal of scrutiny. I think that the natural scum play in a game where town is burning itself down is to not draw attention to one's self and just let town do their thing. TheCow seizing the dubious advantage of a Cowbells lynch at the cost of drawing lots of attention to his own slot seems unlikely. (N.B. Getting to make a shot on Titus wasn't a hugely valuable advantage from TheCow's perspective either IMO.)

A reason this could be a reasonable scum play is if TheCow believed a scum was likely to be lynched if RadiantCowbells was not. However, the end-of-day votes besides Cowbells were on Frozen Angel,

Titus

and Roleplay, all of whom I know or believe are town. I wasn't in the game at the time and don't have a super-good feel for town sentiment, so if anyone believes the lynch was likely to go somewhere else (or in particular that TheCow would believe that) do correct me here. In short, I don't think this explains the hammer.

Malakittens was AFK the entire time that lynch went down, which I believe is null. I place no value in Roleplay's assertion that Mala's lurking after choosing to replace is scummy, on the grounds that I once saw somebody sign up for a game, roll town, then almost immediately go near-totally AFK for two weeks due to their wife having a baby. Many people don't plan very well when they sign up for games.

---//---

Comparing day 3 play

Finally, and most importantly, whereas Marcrell (in TheCow's slot) is demonstrating at least a little interest in the game... Mala stonewalled me for three days then repeated exactly the same reads she gave a week ago, with no further elaboration or thought:

Spoiler:

bji shouldn't be lynched nor should FA.

Dwlee kinda shouldn't either

everyone else is fair game though

So uh I'll try to be here tonight for sure.

Roleplay will take pleasure in knowing I'll be going a whole 6 months without Mafia due to school!

Mala's kinda really sick rn

So all my plans this weekend got ruined due to it

I was referring to myself in third person

...
It's all feels.

Also I don't do cases.


I still don't think FA is.

Bji is confirmed town-ish.

OKAY

IMM

OFF

TODAY

AND DWLEE AND FA ARE TOWN

I'd really like to believe this is not Mala's townplay. In any case, I do not want to be dealing with play like this for another day.

VOTE: Malakittens

[Aquanim]

Before I forget... this game has already seen two too many early hammers.

To be safe I'd appreciate it if wagons were left at L-2 unless deadline looms or everything has happened in the day that needs to.

In particular I have a few things which I think I need to say later but before the day ends.

[Aquanim]

No, I'm town. I'm just disinterested. It's odd Aqua. Back in the Blitz you saw me do this first hand yet you're ignoring that fact. In fact if I recall correctly you didn't want to lynch me there.

In Blitz 6 I would probably have lynched you... but I would have done it

after

I lynched the slot with ten posts in three day cycles (aka the even more disinterested one, which flipped scum).

Sorry Mala. You did not deserve to die

before Kop

, but when someone gets quickwagoned while I sleep...

I do not pretend that this is a certain read. If you're town, this is your opportunity to convince me I'm wrong. In particular it is your opportunity to convince me who we should lynch today instead. The day is running out.

[Aquanim]

...
With Mala not voting and not really contributing I'm willing to follow Aquanim here. I saw Bji express suspicion of Mala's latest post, and

>>> Marcrell <<<

seemed to agree with most of what was being said about Mala as well. Frozen said that she would read Mala again, so if she comes back and is willing to vote there I think that we have a reasonable chance of lynching there

>>> without requiring any Mafia votes <<<

.

Is this you townreading Marcrell?

[Aquanim]

That is L-1 on Marcell. NOBODY hammer.

[Aquanim]

and by "Marcell" myself, Mala and Jake all meant "Marcrell"

[Aquanim]

As a matter of fact, if somebody could unvote Marcrell that would be lovely.

Your vote may remain on him in spirit if you like but I want zero risk of a quickhammer. This day is not done yet.

[Aquanim]

Okay, thanks.

Any particular reasons you'd prefer a TheCow/Marcrell lynch to Mala?

[Aquanim]

Ps by the way. A wagon doesn't always have to be scum driven. I have seen games where the leading wagons were all town driven and not one scum on them

Yeah, it does happen sometimes, and this game is one of the circumstances under which it might have happened.

The other half of the relevant argument locks down that point a lot more.

[Aquanim]

Another point to consider about Mala:

So Mala's townreads are as follows - {Dwlee, Bji, Frozen Angel}.

Additionally, Mala townread Roleplay right up until she tried to policy lynch him, and I don't think the actual read on my slot (should have) changed.

That leaves {Acryon, Golden/Dier, Cow/Marcrell, Mario} as the slots Mala does not townread.

We have three scum to hit and one mislynch to spare, and Mario has plenty of interactions with the other three slots there to draw conclusions from. Given her townreads Mala has already almost solved the game from her perspective.

That raises the interesting question of why Mala did not vote or express any suspicion whatsoever of anyone for the vast majority of day 3. There may be other answers but the obvious one is "it would have ended up directing suspicion at somebody Mala didn't

want

to direct suspicion at".

(Even if Mala did not/does not townread my slot the argument holds up to some extent, since she should be close to having the game solved and trying to find just one more townread. Don't see any evidence of that, either.)

[Aquanim]

@acryon

your thoughts about lynching mala?

[Aquanim]

gonna sleep, I'd really appreciate it if nobody hammered until I wake up tomorrow

[Aquanim]

Almost every slot remaining is a low activity slot in this game...

and if you were to make a decision based on current activity, I'm not sure how leaving the lurkiest slot alive and lynching an active one is supposed to be helpful for town, either.

Do you think Mala has a mafia role PM or not?

[Aquanim]

feel free to reply using the common shorthand of "scum", I just wanted to be perfectly clear that at this stage the alignment is what counts

[Aquanim]

Almost every slot remaining is a low activity slot in this game...

and if you were to make a decision based on current activity, I'm not sure how leaving the lurkiest slot alive and lynching an active one is supposed to be helpful for town, either.

Do you think Mala has a mafia role PM or not?

Aqua why we can't lynch MM or Acryon today?

with all the theories - cases I brought up ?

I think Mala is the lynch more likely to flip scum right now. I will think about it.

good night

[Aquanim]

Almost every slot remaining is a low activity slot in this game...

and if you were to make a decision based on current activity, I'm not sure how leaving the lurkiest slot alive and lynching an active one is supposed to be helpful for town, either.

Do you think Mala has a mafia role PM or not?

Are you serious? A very active slot has made a lot of comments during the game and a lot of reads and connections. There is way more to glean from an active slot than a lurky one.

Yes, I am super serious.

If activity were going to inform my decision at this point it would be along the lines of "we cannot afford to have this player lurk any longer", or "I will not lose to so-and-so's play". I understand your line of reasoning on day 1, but this isn't day 1 any more.

I'm not sure I like your current demeanor Aqua. You came in seemingly interested in helping and clearing things up, but a lot of your recent posts are very meh. If I thought Mala was scum I would be voting for her. Clearly I'm not confident in that fact.

Sure, but there are many different reads you could have that would result in you not voting Mala. "Town", "Null", "Null leaning town", "Scummy but less scummy than TheCow", and any number of justifications for any of those reads.

[Aquanim]

@acryon

: in what sense is TheCow's slot "higher activity" in terms of reads, connections and comments than Mala's?

[Aquanim]

Also @Aqua: what do you think of Dierfire's entrance and posts?

Okay enough that I would prefer to let him live a day and see what he does with the slot.

[Aquanim]

What I am saying is that given two slots that I think are scum, I prefer to lynch the one that will give me more info. And there's not really such a thing as differing probabilities of scum, so if my gut feels like either could be scum, why would we not go after the one that gives us more info?

If I felt like either could be scum with more-or-less the same likelihood, I would feel really bad about lynching the currently active and useful one (especially if it turned out I was wrong).

Killing active players and leaving the inactive ones alive is a sure way to end up with a useless town later in the game and a scum win.

[Aquanim]

...
I'm not sure I like your current demeanor Aqua. You came in seemingly interested in helping and clearing things up, but a lot of your recent posts are very meh.
...

Which of my "recent posts" led you to this conclusion?

[Aquanim]

I should be available around deadline also.

I'd like Mario to have elaborated on his previous post before any hammer happens.

[Aquanim]

Don't rush the hammer, either, there is something I'd like to say before it happens.

[Aquanim]

@Aquanim

Why don't you remove your vote and have Marcrell place his on? If you have something to say before the hammer then you should be then one holding the hammer.

Yes, I suppose that makes sense.

UNVOTE: Malakittens

[Aquanim]

<_<.

Fucking annoying.

This is why I won't replace into games because I was aware that my activity was going to drop off and I read the game prior, gave my thoughts, but apparently that means jack fucking shit.
....

Yeah, I know you gave some more detailed thoughts just after you replaced in. I did take that into consideration. That was day 1, though, and we're now at day 3.

Tell me seriously, Mala, would you accept that from anybody else?

[Aquanim]

What about the Golden/Dierfire slot?

[Aquanim]

What about the Golden/Dierfire slot?

[Aquanim]

Basically what I was going to say was that Mala's "plight" and non-activity seems genuine enough. I don't see Mala in many other games... well, at all really. This fits with the work explanation and the post where she said she wouldn't be playing mafia for the next six months. Mala still isn't a townread but not a scumread.

Then you have TheCow. Prodges uselessness all game, and admits to doing so. Then replaces out.

One is null.
The other is scum.

A look through his previous games indicates that TheCow is frequently prodded and replaced as town.

The replace out is certainly not alignment indicative. I doubt the prod dodging is alignment indicative either.

There are other aspects to the case for Mala besides raw activity, do you have any comment on those?

[Aquanim]

Okay I'm now running out of time for this.

I still think Mala is the best lynch today

but in the case I am dead tomorrow this will be in the thread. I believe this case is relevant no matter what Mala flips.

Why Acryon is probably scum

The short version: Despite knowing it is not good for town since day 2 he has been baiting Frozen Angel into continuing their fight, and not looking to get anything useful out of it either.

The best way to demonstrate that is to read his ISO. I'm not going to quote it all here, would just take up space.

Particular points:

...
When did I ever stop scumreading you? Unlike you, I understand when a tunnel is bad for town and look at others. There is more than one scum in this game. Your nonsensical pushing with no results ruined a lot of D2 and currently a lot of D3.
...

...
I'm sure even you see the futility in an infinite back and forth between you {Aqua's edit: Roleplay} and FA. You echo your past reasons, she denies and gets defensive. Who that isn't convinced is convinced through this?

This is the central point. Take a look at Acryon's ISO and look for things that aren't him tunneling on Frozen Angel or baiting Frozen into tunneling him. There's very little and I find none of it convincing. Acryon clearly understands he

should

be doing other things, and yet he isn't.

If he'd been totally tunneled on Frozen being scum I might begin to understand it... but at some points he's been back to a kind of town read on FA, and yet he was still picking a fight. I particularly look at the start of day 3.

And yes, now Acryon has made this post:

This is disappointing I don't

hate

a marcrell lynch, but the problem is that even if FA is town, scum is going to leave both of us alive to LyLo and then we will just straight lose. I have the ability to believe that FA is town for the sake of not just losing the game due to my hardheadedness (though I certainly don't believe that now); I'm not sure FA has that ability for me which is bad for town.

So I suppose since you all are completely unwilling to lynch FA at this point, I will back off for the time being. Consider this a plead to you FA to let your issues with me go for now because it's only going to hurt town at this juncture.

...but I think this is too little too late, especially since scum-Acryon might well have worked out at exactly this point that trying to lynch FA for poor play is the hill he would die on. Don't like that this post makes exactly zero reference to the Mala case, too.

Basically, if you want to make the case that Acryon is town you will have to explain why as a townie he's played this argument with Frozen Angel in the way that he has. I don't have a reasonable explanation.

---//---

Everything I can find from Acryon in the last two days that isn't an answer to someone else's question, directed at/about Frozen, or saying kinda generic things about RadiantCowbells' fakeclaim circus:

Spoiler:

Okay, lets walk through. Aesthetic means you can't be targeted by the town doctor or the town roleblocker. Correct? The roleblocker is meaningless for a town ascetic. The doctor is very meaningful - except that RC is bulletproof. So he doesn't need a doctor. Would you ever put an ascetic bulletproof in a game with a town doctor? I mean, ascetic bulletproof is bad enough, but with a town doctor and roleblocker? It literally doesn't make any sense. Nor can we claim mod WIFOM, this isn't some theme bullshit or mini queue experimental, at least four people have to have looked at "town doctor + bulletproof town ascetic" and said "yep, that seems great".

On the other hand, ascetic scum to counter town roleblocker? Oh, that makes so very much sense. So very, very, very much sense.

Vote: RC

Try not claiming scum next scum game.

I think I'm actually on board with this.

Holding my vote because I don't want to put RC to L-1.

meh, I don't really know what to think of this. I can imagine acryon being skittish about the RC lynch as either alignment, really.

<a few posts concerned about the possibility of Cowbells hammering himself, meh>

wow ok.
i'm still shocked that we had a townie that decided that it was a good idea to fakeclaim a result, retract your real role, then fakeclaim once more AND didn't know the difference between a game that lasts twenty minutes and one that lasts two months.

golden is still a decent vote. not confident on arc!scum at all. the case is "he believed LaL" when his brain was likely just wired to think that way.

To be clear, I never endorsed LaL nor did I vote for anyone for that reason.

To all - anyone who is saying anything about me being scum can just shut up. I've done enough listening to nonsense back and forth from terrible townies not listening to what I have to say, including lynching two valuable townies when I said to not lynch the former and to wait on lynching the latter until we could hear more. If we would have actually waited, maybe we would have heard the full claim. I am not even going to entertain or attempt to defend myself today because frankly you have to be out of your mind to connect the dots to me being scum at this point.

We are mostly screwed at this point anyway, but today is hopefully going to consist of: FA not talking because she is killing town if she is town and us lynching Mario.

Roleplay.
Why did you get replaced.
You were the only bit of sanity in this whole game of illogical madness.

What part of his game was sanity?

VOTE: MarioManiac4

Baiting Frozen Angel and making a vote on Mario for... what turned out to be no reason. This play I had some serious problems with. Either the Mario wagon doesn't take off and this is pointless, or a wagon does develop on Mario and Acryon then has to explain he didn't really have a reason for making this vote and pushing it as today's lynch. Makes more sense as a scum play, either as a bus or just as a place to park his vote.

The bravado does not impress me either. It's not like Acryon was a town hero by any stretch of the imagination up to this point.

UNVOTE: itlepip
VOTE: Malakittens

While I think that itlepip is still the best lynch choice for today given what we know thus far, I really think that we need to start getting the lurkers involved. We're one mislynch away from LYLO and it's ridiculous that we have some players that have lurked through this game without contributing much of anything. Mala's slot is at the top of that list (both she and her replacement were the lurkiest lurkers of the game). However, TheCow and golden get special mention for not even posting in the last 7 and 8 days, respectively.

Every active player that has been lynched thus far as been town. This suggests to me that some of the lurkers are likely scum. This would help explain why town has been derping so hard, it's easy to derp when most/all of the game has been TvT.

Lurkers, you are on notice: you need to contribute to this game. Do something useful.

This doesn't suggest that some of the lurkers are scum. It just as easily suggests that the scum want to eliminate those contributing and leave those that are lurking. Although I do agree that many of the remaining players really need to start participating if we want to have any small chance at winning.

VOTE Acryon. IF HE wasn't scum I won't play mafia ever ever again.

HE IS 200% Mafia

Sorry to see you leave the site.

I'm obvtown lynchbait. Please no.

The only reason you would be lynchbait is that you have made yourself lynchbait by not doing anything. Contribute. Give me a reads list as it stands right now. No nulls.

@acryon

: What changed your mind about FA/RolePlay in Day 2 and 3, such that you'd rather go after MM than either of them? Also, why were you so ready to accept that FA's vanilla town claim was more believable than her "I have a role but I'm not hard claiming it" story?

Nothing changed my mind about them really, but I understand the push on FA especially is a hard sell. The problem I am now seeing is her crazy push on me. It is just so boneheaded that it is very hard to believe it's made up. I think RP may very likely be scum, but I do think it's in our best interests to push MM first. We have time so we can take a look at our available options.

To be frank, I think this game is near unwinnable for town. A townie quickhammers a PR D1, then scum randomly gets a second PR, then another PR does a weird gambit and gets himself lynched and then on top of that he only got a green check in a game where it seems quite possible the scum have a godfather. A good bit of the deck being stacked against us and town being stupid. All that being said, I can understand the frustration and disinterest of town at this point, but we need participation if we want

any

chance.

@Mod:

Could we possibly get an extension? I think the lack of posting makes it evident how much this day has been effected by the holidays, and we have New Years coming up as well.

some random observations, not really alignment relevant.

Welp at least we have no deadline because of it lmao

Hey dwlee, a couple questions for you:

1) Why are you not voting Mario? You seemed content with sheeping RC earlier, but now you've sort of drifted off of it?

2) You talked about how this game is stalling more than once, yet the majority of your posts seem to be sheeping others and talking about how you're confused. You can be part of the problem or part of the solution. You've talked about how town RP was. What do you think about Aqua so far?

3) Have you actually been trying to scumhunt? If you think so, give me a few examples.

Welp at least we have no deadline because of it lmao

Hey dwlee, a couple questions for you:

1) Why are you not voting Mario? You seemed content with sheeping RC earlier, but now you've sort of drifted off of it?

2) You talked about how this game is stalling more than once, yet the majority of your posts seem to be sheeping others and talking about how you're confused. You can be part of the problem or part of the solution. You've talked about how town RP was. What do you think about Aqua so far?

3) Have you actually been trying to scumhunt? If you think so, give me a few examples.

Mario agrees w/ me on cow's slot being scummy af.
I think aqua is really townie. Theor posts feel really genuine and they want to get reads.
Yea I have been scumhunting. I probably should reread or something though so I can refresh my minds on some slots because I am having massive brainfarts rn.

So because MM agrees with you on one slot, he is town? Do you not consider that A) Cow could still be town and that B) Scum vote for scum all the time? That is a horrible reason to be ok with Mario.

I can determine if it is a bus tomorrow.

Sorry but that is still some really bad reasoning. You don't give people townpoints for agreeing with you, especially when we don't have a single scum flip to work from.

Some superficial questioning of Dwlee, about when I replaced in. "Why is your vote not where it was before", "What do you think about the new and interesting thing in the game" and "Please give me examples of you scumhunting" are not questions which make me think Acryon was trying hard here.

(I do wonder how much of that is my own confirmation bias. YMMV, I'd love to hear other opinions.)

I also think that Acryon's argument has been chiefly directed at Frozen Angel playing a poor town game, rather than being scum. This would be the more natural course for a scum-Acryon to take since he sincerely believes it.

---//---

Bji's associative read between Frozen and Roleplay day 1 was pretty poor, largely because a) associative read day 1 and b) it implied that Frozen and Roleplay had made a totally unnecessary and quite dangerous bus. I don't think a great deal less of Bji for it, most everyone gets a dodgy associative case into their head every so often. Acryon jumping on it as hard as he did, on the other hand, was bizarre. Such a case makes sense inside your own head, but normally nobody else agrees, much less blindly sheeps it...

...
Quoting this both to ensure it isn't accidentally bumped by my post and also to comment.

>>> This is the kind of crazy trail that I would take in games, and I love it <<<

. That being said, given the very real possibility that you are wrong, which of the two would we be less sad about lynching as a townie? I think it's clear the answer is FA.

The emphasised part of this post reads all wrong to me. Feels much more like Acryon is trying to justify his jumping on this case, rather than directly saying it is a good case. The rest of his justification for sheeping the case felt super weird and not a natural town line of thought, as well.

(A question to ask here is why Acryon would do something this awkward. The other interesting wagon at the time (four votes) was Supercool who we know is town, and Acryon was not anywhere particularly interesting beforehand, so I don't have an answer to this.)

---//---

Also, the switch from having a swipe at me for my recent posts (which were mostly about the Mala case)...

Spoiler:

@acryon

your thoughts about lynching mala?

Eh. The problem with all of these low-activity slot lynches is they just don't give us much of anything. Even if we get scum tonight, where the heck do we go from there? I'm not sure of an alternative, but it makes me less than enthused about a mala lynch.

Almost every slot remaining is a low activity slot in this game...

and if you were to make a decision based on current activity, I'm not sure how leaving the lurkiest slot alive and lynching an active one is supposed to be helpful for town, either.

Do you think Mala has a mafia role PM or not?

Are you serious? A very active slot has made a lot of comments during the game and a lot of reads and connections. There is way more to glean from an active slot than a lurky one.

I'm not sure I like your current demeanor Aqua. You came in seemingly interested in helping and clearing things up, but a lot of your recent posts are very meh. If I thought Mala was scum I would be voting for her. Clearly I'm not confident in that fact.

to being in favour of a Mala lynch at the moment Bji switched...

Spoiler:

For the record, I also don't feel super comfortable following Dierfire onto a counter wagon on Mala. This is a really difficult situation here. I think the player I'm least fearful of following to a wagon is Aquanim. My town read on FA has obviously blown whatever vestiges remain of my FA-RolePlay associative out of the water, and I think that Aquanim has redeemed his slot. Plus his reasoning in this weekend's posting wrt Mala is hard to find fault with. Pressure time.

VOTE: Malakittens

If anyone is interested in a Dwlee wagon, I will consider it. Make your case.

I don't hate a dwlee wagon, but I don't think there's time for it. Seems we are at marcrell or mala.

At this point, I think I may have to go Mala. While it's unfortunate that the slot has had so little activity, I think there's a slightly higher chance of getting scum there than in marcrell.

gave me whiplash.

[Aquanim]

Would mucj rather lynch marcrell over acryon atm.

why?

[Aquanim]

I am not digging the lynch the active people approach.

That is one of the reasons I would prefer to lynch Malakittens first.

That being said I think Marcrell (as opposed to TheCow) is producing as much, if not more, useful activity as compared to Acryon.

[Aquanim]

With respect to the posts by Malakittens on the previous page, I am quite sure that she is capable of that kind of appeal to emotion as scum.

[Aquanim]

If mala flipps town will you agree on a Acryon - MM - Marcell team?

direfier is my next guess

I really think mala will flip town

I'm not comfortable going "those are the only three I would ever lynch in the rest of the game" since there'd be no further way to get information out of anybody else.

That being said, in the event of a Mala town flip I would be looking hardest at those three.

[Aquanim]

direfier is my next guess

what do you think this line is here for

I'm not conf biasing ...

I think Acryon is more than obvious mafia here and I'm really really really desperate that I can't convince town for that lynch.

I have the similar concern that if I am not alive tomorrow I am not sure the Mala lynch will ever go through, if it has not already. Acryon, on the other hand, is sooner or later going to hang.

For the record, I'm still confident that Mario and Dierfire's slots are not scum together.

[Aquanim]

An aside:

...
And with {Aquanim} stepping in, it feels calculated. Lots of activity. Certainly a nice break from a lot of problems with inactivity. But I don't feel it's necessarily scum {EDIT: should this be town?} activity. Working hard, analyzing, even as scum would earn a lot of points. So basically, slot before was scum lean, I don't see entirely town motivation behind you.

(My edits for clarity are in {}.)
Even though I am town this observation by Marcrell about my play was accurate. My play right up until the Malakittens case (and to a lesser extent, until the Acryon case) has been unlike my usual town play. "Calculating" is an apt description.

The reason is that day 1 and day 2 of this game was mostly the Roleplay and Cowbells show, and most of the remaining slots were not held accountable for their reads and did not contribute a whole lot. Combined with the flakers and replacements this meant that there was far less information available than I would have liked. My style of play (the lots of questions, but not many conclusions until Dierfire entered) was aimed at gathering as much information as possible, while trying to avoid putting myself in the position of getting lynched for dodging. This indeed required "calculation".

I don't claim that making this observation makes Marcrell town, but it certainly doesn't necessarily make him scum.

[Aquanim]

Deadline is in under 11 hours now.

[Aquanim]

I still don't like to vote mala ...

I can understand that, I am not enjoying it a great deal myself.

Nevertheless I think it is necessary, if town is to win this game.

[Aquanim]

Now that I've gotten to Aqua's big post on me, I don't really feel the need to justify the entire thing with a detailed response (sorry you probably spent a lot of time on it), but you mentioned that my case on FA boiled down to my feeling she was scum for playing a bad town game, and that's not quite it. It's that she is playing the worst town game in the history of mafia if she is town, and I just can't believe that someone who has ever played the game before would do as many anti-town things as she has if she is town. My back and forth between cooling off and going after her was each day recognizing when the tunneling was bad for town, and backing off, but then restarting when the town was more of a blank slate. Of course I was hoping people would change their minds, but it didn't happen. But if I think someone is scum, I may stop pushing them for today when I realize it's bad for town progression during a day, but that doesn't mean I won't pick it up tomorrow.

To be honest I don't think you

can

answer most of it.

There's the part where you argued she was scum for playing a bad town game, and also there is the part where I think you were deliberately baiting her into stupid shit-flinging arguments.

The way to get somebody lynched is to talk to the rest of town, not argue with your suspect that they are scum. I think Frozen Angel is tilted and doesn't know better. I think you do know better.

[Aquanim]

There's the part where you argued she was scum for playing a bad town game, and also there is the part where I think you were deliberately baiting her into stupid shit-flinging arguments.

Eh, I never fight for the sake of fighting. I wouldn't even do that as scum. I don't have time for that.

<shrug> well, it's what you've done this game, whether you can see it or not

The way to get somebody lynched is to talk to the rest of town, not argue with your suspect that they are scum. I think Frozen Angel is tilted and doesn't know better. I think you do know better.

Pretty sure every time I posted about her, it was initially an appeal to the town. Can I help that she came to defend herself each time and engaged me? No. My goal was never to wall with her, because I don't think there has been a benefit from really any of her posts this game, so why would I want more of that?

At some point you could have just... not replied. It's not like Frozen was actually getting any thread traction you had to deal with.

[Aquanim]

You'll noticed I did have moments where I abstained, but it was difficult sometimes. Your predecessor seems to have understood this plight.

My predecessor in this slot didn't have a single solitary clue how to play town without making a complete mess of the thread, and I'm pretty sure his process for making decisions was strongly based on "what makes me feel big and important". Seeing as how you're at least aware of the idea that big messy arguments that aren't going anywhere is bad for town I expect better from you.

Are you seriously telling me this post was necessary?

Do you really not see how the way you are playing and tunneling on me is anti-town? Multiple pages and countless posts of your's have been wasted spouting things that are misinformed, ignorant, or even patently false. Instead of being able to read the game, people are forced to read your drivel. I don't actually care if you think I am scum, but filling up the thread with your terrible arguments does nothing but make it easier for scum to hide.

[Aquanim]

This conversation has run its course, I think. Everyone else can make their own judgement.

Frozen Angel is not getting lynched today, and you indicated that you would possibly go for Mala instead. Going to make that vote?

[Aquanim]

good morning everyone

I remain dubious about allowing Mala to live based on her word that she is lynchbait

[Aquanim]

Incidentally, I am pretty sure that this whole fake hammer thing is simply not a thing Acryon does here IF {Acryon is scum} AND {Mala is town}.

[Aquanim]

Mislynch takes us to LYLO.
No lynch takes us to MYLO. A no lynch from there takes us to LYLO.

Did I compute that correctly?

Well, yes, but I don't see why anybody is even thinking about a nolynch right now.

(For starters, Mala is at L-1 and I am holding the hammer.)

[Aquanim]

Well I've never experienced a no lynch. So I haven't had experience with how or why it is done. Just thinking out loud about what it would mean.

It seems to me that it means that being wrong about Mala is no better than letting scum pick the next two lynches. So I think it shines a light on how valuable confidence in the Mala lynch is at this point.

um.... what?

If we lynch Mala then scum gets one kill off. They will shoot somebody whose flip does not help us. Likely you or me.

If we nolynch twice then scum gets two kills, both of which will be directed at people whose flip is unhelpful.

[Aquanim]

Even if Mala flips town I still give town okay odds to win this. There are not very many options left.

Note that in that event I am not prepared to swear on this:

Incidentally, I am pretty sure that this whole fake hammer thing is simply not a thing Acryon does here IF {Acryon is scum} AND {Mala is town}.

If Mala is out of the picture then the only scumteam that includes neither Acryon nor my townreads is {Mario, Dierfire, Marcrell} which I'm pretty sure is out based on Mario's attempts to lynch Golden day 1. The likelihood that both town-Mala and I would be wrong about a scum-Dwlee is pretty low.

[Aquanim]

I'm here. Does anyone have an accurate vote count? Specifically, are we on track to lynch Mala and if not do we have enough votes to swing somewhere else?

I believe Mala is at L-1 and I have not yet voted.

[Aquanim]

Oh, yes, you're right. Bji is still around though.

[Aquanim]

Mala's whole "talking about nothing but townreads all day" into "oh, I've been scumreading TheCow all along" is play I refuse to let beat me if it is scum.

[Aquanim]

Mala is at L-1. Aquanim holds the hammer. Now Aquanim, what was it you wanted to say before hammering?

Oh, I already did. It was (mostly) the Acryon case.

[Aquanim]

It's two and a half hours to deadline and I can be here as long as I need to be. If anybody wants to say or discuss anything, go ahead.

[Aquanim]

It's two and a half hours to deadline and I can be here as long as I need to be. If anybody wants to say or discuss anything, go ahead.

Sure. Let's talk about Mario. Can you please put these choices in order of your preference (1 most preferred, 3 least preferred)? Mine are:

1. Lynch Mario
2. Lynch Mala
3. No Lynch

Mario's most recent postings have pushed his total body of work over the scum line in my opinion.

2,1,3.
I think there are very few plausible scumteams containing Mario that do not also contain Mala. I still don't think the Mario-Golden interaction day 1 was a bus. That leaves either {Acryon, Marcrell, Mario} (for which I have to believe Mario's attempts to get TheCow lynched at the start of day 3 were a bus) or {Acryon, Mario, Dwlee} (for which I have to believe both myself and town-Mala have misread Dwlee).

[Aquanim]

its okay FA I am bait, but its my own fault and I should be lynched.

Bji doesn't see town motivation in my pre post, but it's there. If I'm not lynched here I'll be lynched later on and then people will blame me for not playing better. I'm mislynch bait so it's better for me to go now rather than later. IDK why he doesn't see this view point as town, but whatever. Scum really wouldn't say that while being close to winning. they would rather fight than me okay with going down tbh.

with respect to this, I reckon going all "woe is me"

is

your way of fighting the lynch

[Aquanim]

@everyone, particularly the mod

: I am having some technical difficulties connecting to Mafiascum at the moment. Might well be everyone, since

http://downforeveryoneorjustme.com/http ... iascum.net

is giving me both "yes" and "no" answers when I refresh it.

That being said I am not willing to let this get too close to deadline. Hammering in 20 minutes. Speak now or hold your peace.

[Aquanim]

Regardless of what Mala flips:

Do not lynch Bji.
Do not lynch Frozen Angel.
Mario and Golden/Dierfire are probably not scum together.

If Mala flips scum:

I would lynch Acryon next.
If he flips scum, my best guess is Mario but it could maybe be any of {Marcrell, Dierfire, Dwlee}.
If Acryon flips town... well, I haven't put much thought into this pair of flips and what it would mean. Hopefully you can work it out.

If Mala flips town:

I'm pretty sure this makes the scumteam either {Acryon, Marcrell, Mario}, {Acryon, Marcrell, Dierfire}, or possibly some combination of two of those four and Dwlee.
I find it kind of hard to believe that both a town-Mala and myself would fail to read a scum-Dwlee, but I suppose it is possible.
Acryon's fake-hammer stuff with Mala seems pretty pointless if he is scum and Mala is town but maybe he thought he needed to do something pointless to throw off the scent? maybe it just happened randomly? idk.

[Aquanim]

Connection seems OK again now. Don't want to risk it reoccuring, though.

VOTE: Malakittens

this part always makes me sick

[Aquanim]

Y'know, it's funny.

I'd have considered lynching Bji for his day 1 and 2 play (don't remember why, didn't take notes while I was reading the game), but after being checked he played quite a good town game, which I admit I believed... should have been a warning sign, really. Pretty much every townie I've ever seen plays terribly once they are confirmed, they don't play better. Not that it would be justifiable to lynch a town-checked slot without non-Godfather flips elsewhere.

I stand by the read that Acryon needlessly provoked Frozen Angel into fights, even if it didn't make him scum.

Nobody (besides Keyser, to some degree) stood up and played a strong town game to counteract Roleplay and Radiant shitting up the thread with unjustifiable aggression and continual fakeclaim shenangians respectively.

The Bulletproof claim was daft and would never have saved you anyway, RC. Ascetic isn't a thing one randomly fakeclaims, Ascetic Bulletproof isn't a thing, Ascetic investigative role definitely is, and with a Doctor in the setup a Bulletproof makes little sense and an ascetic investigative role definitely does. Any decent scum team would see through that in a second. Once you made the fake claim against Titus you were committed, trying to back out of it afterwards was never going to work.

[Aquanim]

Also the hammer on Supercool day one was incredibly bad, which once again... falls on Roleplay and RC.

[Aquanim]

In all honesty? It actually boiled down to my hope that, based on our history, town-Mala would put a little effort into the game when I replaced in, which didn't happen. Maybe it would have happened if she had not become sick.

Also, even if the Mala lynch was wrong, I think the

wagon

had to happen. That slot had almost no interactions with anything or anyone, and the wagon solved that problem. Under different circumstances (more time in the day and Mala being less busy) the lynch would maybe have gone somewhere else in the end. I don't know.