Mini 1785: Game Over!

[JarJarDrinks]

RC doesnt support this lynch, so we need someone else to also votr

Who gives a shit if RC supports the lynch or not?

Anyone supporting lynching outside of you or postie is scum or terrible.

[JarJarDrinks]

We lynch Postie tomorrow.

This is obvious scum people.

[JarJarDrinks]

- Ircher supposedly knows for a fact that Postie is 100% scum.

- Postie is a hammer away from being lynched.

- Ircher tries to derail the wagon.



This is mafia 101 people. Scum will ALWAYS try to delay their own lynch as long as possible.

[JarJarDrinks]

This is exactly how I caught RC in the last game I played where he was scum.

He kept trying to delay his lynch "just one more day"

[JarJarDrinks]

Yes, I decided he was scummier before any of all this which is why I voted him.

But it was pretty close before. Now I'm totally sure.

[JarJarDrinks]

And I'm also pretty sure that RC is his scumbuddy too. Cause remember:

RC was all gungho on Ircher and as soon as he saw a postie lynch looked probable, he switched for like no reason.

[JarJarDrinks]

They know that a postie lynch today means the next 2 lynches are Ircher>RC.

Lynching Meeeks (who I'm sure is town) adds an extra day to that timeline.

[JarJarDrinks]

you get me?

No.

I got that BEFORE.

Ircher looking to lynch a non-postie player tilts everything.

He's obviously trying to delay his own lynch. There's no way he tries to push ur lynch when he knows postie is 100% confirmed scum.

[JarJarDrinks]

And even if you buy the fact that he was so convinced by RC that u'r scum, look @ this shit:

@RC
Is Murder an acceptable lynch?

Like seriously people?

[JarJarDrinks]

I mean I know I'm biased but Ircher seems pretty obvscum right now.

I think it's crazy that anyone even needs to be convinced @ this point.

[JarJarDrinks]

What meeks said. I don't think it's stupidity. I think it was calculated scum play. Not a very good one, but it had a direct purpose (delaying the lynch).

@Dwlee, do you have any reason to believe Ircher over Postie?

[JarJarDrinks]

Fyi: RC was the one to derail it.

Yeah that'd be why RC is getting lynched after you.

I thought the reasoning made sense, but none of you guys agree.

Who gives a shit if the reasoning made sense? Is it a better reason than KNOWING FOR A FACT THAT POSTIE IS SCUM?

[JarJarDrinks]

What meeks said. I don't think it's stupidity. I think it was calculated scum play. Not a very good one, but it had a direct purpose (delaying the lynch).

@Dwlee, do you have any reason to believe Ircher over Postie?

Well I have a jailkeep but didnt use it on postie. If postie is town scum have a roleblocker, but because my protective power is in something that also roleblocks I don't think that scum have a roleblocker. Does that make sense?

Well if town has a vig/GS/JOAT then I think scum having a roleblocker makes sense.

[JarJarDrinks]

What's the risk of not lynching Postie or me today?

I'll quote you exactly what I posted to RC in the game he was scum and was asking the same question:

The town is on a clock and we only have so many mislynches before it runs out. Scum is just trying to run out that clock.

[JarJarDrinks]

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Gunsmith

RC could be telling the truth, as Gunsmiths get guilties on backup cops.

But, I'm inclined to disbelieve it.

Either way, Postie is the best lynch.

[JarJarDrinks]

Like right there, not only do u call postie the best lynch but you say you don't believe RC

[JarJarDrinks]

That was before RC's suggestions.

lol

[JarJarDrinks]

Uh, is "cause ur obvscum" not a good enough answer?

[JarJarDrinks]

Uh, cuz you've done it since daystart.

I could see a Postie/Jar/RC team now. Could explain the townread RC has on Jar.

RC has a townread on me?

[JarJarDrinks]

guys if rc is town and does that whole "this is why is was right and everyone else was wrong" thing post-game that he always does, please bring up his push on me despite me being town

He's not town. I'm sure tomorrow he'll be all "Why would I hard-defend my scumbuddy?". Don't fall for that shit.

[JarJarDrinks]

I don't like the switch in focus from Postie to Ircher.

I'm going to lynch your ass or die trying but I'm not going to vote you if it risks Ircher going through.

Why are you so convinced Ircher is town?

[JarJarDrinks]

I'd say Ircher/JarJarDrinks/MURDERCAT are the scumteam.

So U think me and MC are trying to get Ircher lynched instead of you for the towncred?

These are some pretty shitty reads.

[JarJarDrinks]

It's not logical because Postie is lying here.

Why Postie and not Ircher? Here's the reason you gave:

Ircher has no motive to directly counterclaim Postie, especially if scum already have a roleblocker.

This:

VC 2.01

acryon (1):

Expedience

Ircher (3):

Maxous, I Am Innocent, RadiantCowbells

Postie (1): Ircher

RadiantCowbells (2):

Dwlee99, Mr Meeseeks

Not Voting (4):

acryon, MURDERCAT, Postie, JarJarDrinks

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2016-05-15 00:00:00)

isn't a good motive?

Ircher looked like the next lynch. Then he claimed.

[JarJarDrinks]

How many times do I have to tell you I was sleeping then?

uh, cool bro!

I'm not arguing with you about if I think you're lying about sleeping. That would be pointless.

Expe says that you had no motivation to fake claim and I'm pointing out that you most certainly did.

[JarJarDrinks]

i think the point he's making is that he wouldn't of had the time to think of the fake-claim.

Lol. Yeah if Expe believes Ircher about him being asleep then he's correct about there being no motivation for Ircher to fake-claim.

But Expe might as well just ask Ircher if he's scum @ that point if he's gonna just take him @ his word.

[JarJarDrinks]

I still don't understand why anyone would take that Lapsa claim seriously. I find it hard to believe scum shot there.

Kinda agree w/ this but what else happened?

Still pushing for a mass claim but doubtfull there'll be any more PR claims.


Which would mean only 4 possible options:

- Scum shot into the Lapsa shot and Dwlee dodged
- IAI is lying and scum shot kush
- IAI is telling the truth and him AND scum shot kush
- Scum didnt kill

Am I missing anything?

[JarJarDrinks]

So if we're not mass-claiming and neither Postie or Ircher are doing anything to make themselves look any less scummy, what are we waiting for?

Everyone just pick ur horse already and vote.

[JarJarDrinks]

Still can't believe postie may actually get lynched here.

What's the current theory again? Scum and town both have a gunsmith?

U people are ridiculous.

[JarJarDrinks]

I beleive this is correct:

Ircher (5): Postie, JarJarDrinks, Mr Meeseeks, MURDERCAT, Maxous
Postie (4): Expedience, Dwlee99, Ircher, acryon
Mr Meeseeks (1): RadiantCowbells

Not Voting (1): I Am Innocent

[JarJarDrinks]

u did respond to that 2 posts later Postie.


RRRgggghhhh....

[JarJarDrinks]

Still not reading too much into it since it's completely unnecessary for scum postie to even say anything @ this point. IAI is pretty likely to vote Ircher when he gets back so a scum-postie already basically won the counter-battle.

[JarJarDrinks]

What's your read on Garmr?

[JarJarDrinks]

VOTE: postie

[JarJarDrinks]

my gut wants to say that jarjar is a decent candidate for being scum, what with postie faking a guilty on him

Huh?

Explain how postie faking a guilty on me in any way points to me being scum.

[JarJarDrinks]

and if i can make my last game onsite for a while the one where i break rcs perfect scum win record then ill be damn proud

Huh? If RC had a perfect scum win record, I've already ended it.

[JarJarDrinks]

Gonna reread stuffs but right now I think I'm leaning towards acryon. Maybe MC or Max.


Meeks and Expe are townreads.

[JarJarDrinks]

because right now your choice is between LITERALLY CONFSCUM TO YOU postie and THAT GUY WHAT RC THINKS IS SCUM mr meeseeks

and you chose the latter

The idea of letting both claimed-GS's live isn't horrible

, but it better be for the sake of lynching someone more likely to flip scum than Meseeks.

They know that a postie lynch today means the next 2 lynches are Ircher>RC.

Lynching Meeeks (who I'm sure is town) adds an extra day to that timeline.

I agree with this.

completely inconsistent.

What is inconsistent? Lynching Meeks seems like it would almost definitely just add another day to a timeline which already guarantees us scum in two shots.

So looking over things again, I see two major ideas we need to compare to determine which is more likely along with the context of each player. For one, I already thought Ircher was town and was unsure on Postie. Then we measure the likelihood of Ircher's agreement to not lynch postie being done as town versus the likelihood that there is a mafia RB and they happened to block Postie.

While what Ircher did does look pretty scummy

, 1) he ultimately wasn't the one to propose it and 2) I

can

see it coming from town.

Vote is staying where it is.

The 2 bolded quotes seem to contradict each other.

And I really have a hard time believing his reasoning for thinking postie was the guilty one. His reasoning is basically because he doesn't think it's likely that scum has a RBer.

VOTE: acryon

[JarJarDrinks]

Then we measure the likelihood of Ircher's agreement to not lynch postie being done as town versus the likelihood that there is a mafia RB and they happened to block Postie.

And what does he mean by "they happened to block Postie"? As if blocking the claimed gunsmith would be a coincidence or something. I feel like this is acryon trying justify a scumread that he should not have had.

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

[JarJarDrinks]

they are 200 posts apart, so if you don't expect my feelings and reads to adjust as time goes on, I don't know what to tell you.

Reads change sure. That wasn't a read. It's game theory.

- You're saying that lynching OUTSIDE of 2 claimed gunsmiths in favor of someone else is an ok play
- You then say Ircher looks scummy for suggesting it
- But you still vote postie (and don't give a very good reason for doing so)

[JarJarDrinks]

There was just no good reason to think postie was scum.

watch what youre saying

Sorry but how in the world can anyone think that scum claiming gunsmith in a game w/ an actual gunsmith can happen?

[JarJarDrinks]

What? How was there no good reason? I already had suspicions of scum!Postie, whereas I felt the Calvary slot was town based on things earlier in the game.

Yeah I had my suspicions too. In fact I still wanted to lynch postie on day one and YOU were one of the people arguing against it.

But all that changes once Ircher claims. Especially after he wanted to delay the lynch. I don't get how u can think postie is scum anymore @ that point. Just too much of a coincidence IMO.

[JarJarDrinks]

Good analysis's from Max. I agree w/ pretty much all of it. I think if I'm wrong about acryon, then it's MC.

[JarJarDrinks]

UNVOTE:

would like to hear from MC.

He should be back from vla today and I do really like max's case

[JarJarDrinks]

Let me know if there are mistakes and I'll repost

VC 2.03 has Postie wrong

[JarJarDrinks]

I liked that meeseeks is with postie and RC alone on a wagon at one point. I really doubt all three scum would push the same wagon alone.

Yup, they were on me. Meeks is my top townread because of this. There's just no way the entire scum team (and only the entire scum team) jumped on me @ that point.

[JarJarDrinks]

VOTE: acryon

that is L-1

I know he's VLA untill monday but I really don't forsee him saying much to change my mine. While I'm a little weary of MC making me a top town read after I mentioned that I liked Max's case on him, I think the rest of his posts today look good.

[JarJarDrinks]

My thought is that we have 2 lynches left.

Even if we somehow decide that we want to lynch someone else today, there's just no way in heck that acryon isn't gonna be one of the next 2 lynches.

[JarJarDrinks]

ah yesbecauses having two lynches leftthe next logical step is totally to rush a lynchnot to, you know, THINK ABOUT IT because we only have two days leftmarvellous logic there

Well nobody's doing or saying anything. It's not like I'm trying to shut down discussion. Is there really a difference if we wait several days if we're all just sitting around twiddling our thumbs?

[JarJarDrinks]

To be fair acryon, you had 3 days worth of posts before you went VLA. It's not like we flash-lynched u as soon as the day started.

[JarJarDrinks]

Like how is that caught lying? Clearly I just misremembered.

MC isn't exactly saying you're scummy for lying/misremembering. He's saying that RC acting like he caught u in a lie and then just ignoring that read makes you look bad. No fault of urs there.

[JarJarDrinks]

And I'll concede that the reasons for voting you weren't all that great. They were just better than any reason to vote for someone else.

I don't think any of us were super comfortable w/ the vote today.

[JarJarDrinks]

Well no and that's the point. It isn't scummy at all for him to ignore it. Any sensible player I think would ignore that, since it makes way more sense that I just misremembered and you would look like an idiot pursuing something like that as RC.

But he voted you for it. Which implies HE believed it to be a lie.

Had he not voted you for it, then I'd agree w/ you that there's nothing scummy about it.

[JarJarDrinks]

what was last scum role?

[JarJarDrinks]

in other words: HOW U KNOW TO CLAIM GUNSMITH?

[JarJarDrinks]

stuff goes here

@ least give us dead and scum forum while we wait

[JarJarDrinks]

[JarJarDrinks]

dead and scum forum

?

Also what was Dwlees last JOAT ability?