Mini Normal 1775 END!
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I'm through D1, and I'm leaving for the night. My preliminary thought is that the speed of the lynch on Madonna was highly suspect, but I see that many people were interpreting her as suspicious for defending Lowell (implying that they were both Mafia), which does give support to switching from one to the other. When I'm done catching up, I will revisit that point to see whether anyone seemed off in the timing.
So far I am reading Sakura and Almost50 as Town. I need to review some things with the ending of the day but mhsmith0 might be looking good as well.
The suspicious set that needs my attention is {Lowell, Garmr, chilledtea, Knightmare} (some of those are associative but I'll speak to that more when I know more).-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@Sakura
In post 975, Sakura Hana wrote:@Dierfire: What's your opinion on Expedience and Boon
Nothing stood out to me about either of those players, but I will pay attention to them as I continue.
I guess that Boon is claiming a role now? I'm not really caught up on the events leading into this page, but unless there's something very wrong with the remainder of his ISO I wouldn't want to lynch him today.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I'm on page 32, and I think that I'll finish tomorrow. A few things:
I haven't seen anything that I disliked from Expedience but I told Sakura that I'd give an opinion so I'll do a read in ISO when I'm finished to get something more solid.
I'm having a difficult time reading the interactions between chilledtea and Garmr but they did not seem to be Town/Town interactions to me. If anything, I was suspecting Mafia/Mafia. If Boon's claim is being countered then probably this needs to sit for a bit and be examined later.
My read on Almost50 wavered a bit when I read 764 and 765 (the tone felt weird to me).
Anyway, I'll be more coherent tomorrow when I finish.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Grah, sorry, I'm still not caught up. I got distracted by recent events.
I gather that Sakura has claimed a Vengeful role and Boon has amended his claim to JOAT? Since we're at an even number, I can't really think of a downside to Sakura's plan to lynch her and have her use any Vengeful ability on Boon. There's only one thing that I'd want to know first.
@Sakura
I think that you should fully claim your role and explain your reaction to the claim by Boonskiies. It's not as though it gives the Mafia more information than lynching you would, and I'm trying to assess the chance that you're both Town here.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
All right, I've finished my first pass.
There's a lot of noise in here, and I'm having difficulty adapting the newer material into my earlier impressions. I'm moving now to read a few players in ISO (Expedience as promised, chilledtea because I want to make a case, Boonskiies for comparison to chilledtea when I finish).
If I were picking one I'd be lynching Boonskiies over Sakura, but obviously if we're going to lynch either we should lynch Sakura to get both.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Expedience first:
I didn't agree with the read on Sakura in 124. I thought that Sakura's push on Knightmare was good enough for the early game, and her apparent paranoia of being followed was consistent with a Town player who was looking for more information and not receiving it. Furthermore, I don't see a good reason to suspect that Sakura, as Mafia, would have needed to abandon the wagon so obviously as it was growing.
However, I still end up not thinking that this is evidence that Expedience is Mafia, because the explanation of why Sakura's actions don't make sense to Expedience (293) is consistent with the way that Expedience approaches the game in general (299) and reads my slot (417).
Expedience was the first vote on Madonna (464) for reasons which I find to be true (Madonna should not have been voting a player that she thought was Town), but which were easy to provide as Mafia (that single action, while inexplicable, does not clearly translate to a Mafia play). I can't really call this indicative of any alignment; it was a great opportunity for the Mafia precisely because Town players would be justified in not tolerating Madonna's play there. This includes 559.
The question to Garmr in 590 is a good one, to the point that I was expecting Expedience to open D2 with a vote on Garmr. The vote on Sakura Hana instead (638) follows a similar vein as the vote on Madonna (identifies inconsistencies but does not identify Mafia motivation for inconsistencies).
The vote on Garmr (727) is better, and is one with which I agree (Expedience does not explicitly provide this, but the Mafia motivation for Garmr to spend so much time talking to chilledtea would be to drown out the signal in noise--this is one thing that flagged my attention for a possible Mafia/Mafia interaction). Clearly the motivation to stay off of the Madonna wagon is to avoid suspicion after the flip.
Overall I like the read on Garmr and disagree with the read on Sakura (but don't find the reasoning suspicious for Mafia intent). There are enough negative points here that I'm not reading Expedience as Town with the same degree of confidence that I have in, say, mhsmith0, but this is certainly on the Town side of Null.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@mhsmith0
In post 1090, mhsmith0 wrote:Dierfire, how likely is it in your mind that we're looking at town/town in Sakura/boon? I've re-read their interactions a few times now, and I'll admit I'm struggling to wrap my head around how to interpret it in terms of alignment for each.
You also seem to be suggesting that I'm a strong town read of yours. Why is that? And do you have any other strong town reads at this time?
I was going to write my case on chilledtea next, but this issue is dominating the thread, so I'm moving it up in priority.
It's a convoluted situation, I agree. I've been reading Sakura as Town since I first started reading on the basis of her play (without factoring in claims). When I look at the claims, I note a few things. First, the Vengeful role is not Normal, and seems slightly less likely to occur in a game that has a Universal Backup. At the same time, it seems like a convoluted way for a Mafia player to contest a claim made by a Town player (particularly claiming a role that makes Sakura an appealing target for the lynch). So, I'm mostly inclined to believe her claim, with the note that of course her claim makes me want to lynch her more, not less, than otherwise. For this reason it's fairly critical for me to have a good read on Boon here.
That (reading Boon) will be my next task. Afterward, I will articulate my suspicions on chilledtea, and then substantiate my read on you.
I am also reading Almost50 as Town at this time.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@Almost50
In post 1105, Almost50 wrote:I'm not buying this town!boon though, so I'm going to cast my vote on him regardless at the end of my read up (which should be 5-10 minutes from now).
I'm fairly certain that this is an error. If Sakura is Mafia, then she needs to be lynched anyway. If she is Town, then presumably she is being truthful with her claim, and lynching her takes Boon with her. We've an even number of players, so the extra lynch is a good thing.
The only reason not to vote Sakura is believing that both Sakura and Boon are Town.
EDIT: Do you have a source for the use of Vengeful as an explicitly Normal role?-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I might not be explaining this well, but I do actually understand how the Normal games work with regard to roles. I'll try to break it down.
White List:These roles are listed as "Explicitly Normal" in the Wiki (Normal Game, Normal Roles and Modifiers). A Normal Game may include any number of roles from this list (provided that it meets the other criteria).
Black List:These roles are listed as "Explicitly Non-Normal" in the Wiki. A Normal Game may not include any of these roles or modifiers.
Everything else is "grey list" and may be included within limits. This game is a Mini Normal and so may have no more than one role from the "grey list" (Vengeful Townie would be on the "grey list").
Is that clear?-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Anyway Boonskiies is partially a reverse of Sakura for me; I've no good read on his play, and it's the claim that would make me read him as Town.
Some of his anger in response to others voting for him felt theatrical, but I can't ascribe any of that to Mafia specifically. He seemed to be playing up his inability to follow the game closely, and specifically doing so in a way that seemed overly defensive, but that could be stress as well.
I'm going ahead with my case on chilledtea.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
All right, here is my case on chilledtea.
Spoiler: Walls
None of this is in any way a substantial read or a reasoned vote. Given his activity level, I say that chilledtea is trying to look busy and avoid analysis.
VOTE: chilledtea
I'm still paying attention to Boon and Sakura but my vote is here until I come to a decision.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Boonskiies claims in 992.
In post 992, Boonskiies wrote:Seriously, fuck this game. You guys are lynching a PR. I fucking jailed Toasty last night. I thought I blocked the kill until he started lying.
Here is chilledtea afterward.
In post 1026, chilledtea wrote:In post 1013, Sakura Hana wrote:Boon i'll give you until your next post to fix your claim into something that isnt a lie and explain why you lied or otherwise im adding super glue to my vote.
Please come here and explain yourself.
I don't at all believe that chilledtea, as Town Jailkeeper, sees someone claim a Jailkeeper action and decides to try to be friends with Boonskiies ("to block another kill" as though lynching Boonskiies immediately doesn't help that plan), then questions another player who seems to be countering the claim.
I also see no evidence from chilledtea when D2 begins that he has an important result (he should have believed either that Garmr delivered a kill or that he blocked an attempt to kill Garmr).
I don't believe the claim by chilledtea.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@Sakura Hana
In post 1140, Sakura Hana wrote:I haven't read Dier's case on Chilled because I just got back, but i would really prefer him to take a strong stance on both me and Boon, because with the way things are going there's no way the lynch can be shifted elsewhere.
My stance on Boon and you has been, and continues to be, this:
I was reading you as Town for your play prior to the claim. The claim itself is unusual (due to not being a Normal role) but does not seem likely to come from a Mafia player for the specific purpose of getting Boonskiies (presumably Town in that scenario) lynched. That's why I said that I would prefer to lynch Boon if I were to kill one of you.
However, the nonzero chance that I'm wrong about you, combined with the fact that we have an even number of players, makes lynching you a reasonable strategy if Boon is Mafia and you are Town (as you yourself seemed to acknowledge).
So, I've been trying to assess the chance that you and Boon are both Town (the scenario in which lynching you is a bad strategy). With the claim by chilledtea, I'm sticking to that interpretation.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
In the scenario that you describe, the real Doctor should counter the claim! Trading evenly with the Mafia is a good deal for the Town, and having a dead Mafia player makes it easier to find associations. Also, in this situation specifically, the Jailkeeper has a greater chance to block the kill when fewer Mafia players are left alive.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
In your initial response to Boon's claim that I quoted above, and in several of your responses recently, you seem to be saying that your plan was not to counter the claim because you thought that your role was more valuable concealed. Initially, your response was even to allow Boon to survive the day (in favor of lynching Garmr). What has changed since then that you absolutely needed to convince Expedience and mhsmith0 that Boon is Mafia now, today?-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I've been reading through Boonskiies in ISO for associations.
In post 227, Boonskiies wrote:152 by Alm looks like coaching. I checked the front page and couldn't find anywhere where it said scum had day talk. I am leaning town on chilled, though, but meh. Day 1. Just somethings to keep an eye out for later in the game.
This looks suspicious to me. If he wasn't going to push it at the time, then why mention it? He knew that chilledtea was not going to flip Mafia, so this strikes me as a possible attempt to chain chilledtea to Almost50 at some later point.
In post 266, Boonskiies wrote:In post 265, texcat wrote:I am sympathetic with Lowell and his case on you. Sakura bothers me for two reasons. First her unvote when you attracted the wagon. This does not seem particularly bad though. It was basically an RVS wagon that took off. I can understand her unvote. Second is that she never attracted the Almost50 vote. This is what I was referring to when I said connections that don't mean anything without a flip. If Almost50 flips scum, Sakura would definitely get a scum nod.
What would your thoughts on Sakura be if Almost flipped town?
In post 274, Boonskiies wrote:In post 268, texcat wrote:Almost50 flipping town wouldn't really affect my read on Sakura. It would just mean that a flailing townie didn't vote her.
Okay, then why do you say that if A50 flips scum, Sakura will get the nod? He doesn't affect your read on Sakura? Why not vote Sakura instead of A50 then? Don't get me wrong, I like the A50 vote, but makes me a bit nervous.
FoS: Tex
This series makes me feel that texcat is Town here (particularly if Almost50 is Mafia, but even if not). I don't think that these questions, leading to Boonskiies claiming to be suspicious of texcat, needed to happen at that point in the game if they were both Mafia. The partial encouragement to move the vote from Almost50 is the thing that might also indicate that Almost50 is Mafia.
In post 412, Boonskiies wrote:Did someone say L-1?
Boonskiies has a reputation for dropping a hammer on any player to reach L-1. The fact that he does not do so here, with Lowell at L-1, is suspicious.
Boonskiies places his vote on texcat in 425, which makes it further unlikely that texcat is Mafia.
Boonskiies continues to not drop a hammer on Lowell in 439, after mhsmith0 has declared intent to hammer, and 508.
Boonskiies has that interaction with Garmr in 818. It never actually makes it to a vote for him, although Garmr does make it to a vote for Boonskiies in 984.
So, I am reading texcat as Town, and I'm suspicious of Almost50, Garmr, and Lowell. My next task is to read those three again in ISO.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I've read Almost50 in ISO and I'm less suspicious of him than I was.
306 doesn't seem like the sort of argument that two Mafia partners would have.
Many posts are weird in tone or in content (the vote for Madonna in 576 while apparently reading her as Town, disavowing that vote in 765, bizarrely providing incorrect information about Normal roles in 1111), but I think that this may be stylistic rather than substantive.
I've read Lowell in ISO and I'm more suspicious of him than I am of Almost50.
The fact that Boonskiies didn't drop a hammer on him is significant. The recent case on mhsmith0 (1297) shows evidence of being fabricated (reading in ISO without considering context is a sign of trying to find evidence for a conclusion that was already formed). It is possible that his behavior toward Boonskiies was a result of believing his claim, but there's enough evidence here for a vote.
I tried to read Garmr in ISO but his style is difficult to read.
I did see that he seems to start being suspicious of Boonskiies in 783, at which time the wagon on Boonskiies did not yet have much support (texcat seems equivocal in 778 and Almost50 had not been pursuing that lead immediately prior to the read).
I continue to believe that at least one of those rapid votes on the Boonskiies wagon (983, 984, 985) should be a Mafia partner.
So, I think that I want to vote for Lowell now.
VOTE: Lowell-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@ToastyToast
In post 1306, ToastyToast wrote:@Dierfire: A couple of things...this may come off as me defending Lowell but it is more that I think you are assuming that everyone approaches mafia with a certain type of reasoning.
1) Who cares if Boonskiies didn't hammer? I fail to see why this is significant, especially given that Boons entire game was "sorry I'm busy I'll be back later to yell at someone before I leave and do nothing again." Although Boon is known for hammering, there is nothing suggesting that he'd do it every game, regardless of alignment.
2) I read ISO's to prove my points all the time. It may seem like a bad approach to some but for those of us who operate more on gut it is very useful. It "usually" means starting with some abstract thought then finding empirical evidence for it a la deductive reasoning. Since we know Lowell is a gut player,
1. My point is that, as Boonskiies is known for dropping capricious hammers on wagons that reach L-1, even when he is Town, he would have little reason not to do so here if Lowell is Town. Why did he show restraint there?
2. Ha ha, the last part of this point seems to have been lost! What do we do with the knowledge of Lowell's play?
Anyway, I'll assume that the natural continuation was something like this: since we know that Lowell is a "gut player" we should assume that his failure to account for the context of the posts has no bearing on his alignment.
My response would be that I still disagree with the case on mhsmith0 and am reading him as Town (so the case is unpersuasive to me), and also that I find Lowell to be a reasonable partner for Boonskiies given his placement on the wagon (so my vote stays on Lowell).-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I disagree that the case on me is compelling!
I believe that my 1231 should address most of the issues. I wasn't voting for Sakura Hana and I wasn't saying that we should lynch her--I was saying that we should lynch herif we were having trouble deciding between her and Boonskiies, because lynching her would allow us to get both.
@Sakura Hana
In post 1390, Sakura Hana wrote:Dierfire One main question i have is why was numbers more important than keeping the ammount of townies and more importantly a potential PR (even tho it was a gambit) alive for scum to NK instead of getting rid of it together with boons.
When I referred to the point about numbers, I meant that we wouldn't lose a lynch if one Town player and one Mafia player died. If we'd had an odd number of players, then a vengeful shot would have exhausted one of our lynches. It is true that I wasn't thinking ahead to the night phase in that hypothetical scenario, but I wasn't committing to that scenario anyway.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@Garmr
In post 1392, Garmr wrote:In post 1391, Dierfire wrote:I disagree that the case on me is compelling!
I believe that my 1231 should address most of the issues. I wasn't voting for Sakura Hana and I wasn't saying that we should lynch her--I was saying that we should lynch herif we were having trouble deciding between her and Boonskiies, because lynching her would allow us to get both.
@Sakura Hana
In post 1390, Sakura Hana wrote:Dierfire One main question i have is why was numbers more important than keeping the ammount of townies and more importantly a potential PR (even tho it was a gambit) alive for scum to NK instead of getting rid of it together with boons.
When I referred to the point about numbers, I meant that we wouldn't lose a lynch if one Town player and one Mafia player died. If we'd had an odd number of players, then a vengeful shot would have exhausted one of our lynches. It is true that I wasn't thinking ahead to the night phase in that hypothetical scenario, but I wasn't committing to that scenario anyway.
But the whole point was you were town reading both why would you want both boon and sakura dead as town. Also if you thought that was a good idea to lynch two town reads why didn't you want to vote sakura. Is it because a vengeful town can only shoot what's on their wagon?
This seems to be a major disconnect from what I've been writing and I'm not exactly sure how to fix it. I guess that I'll ask you to read again, keeping in mind that I didn't vote for Sakura Hana?-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
All right, I'm trying to get it together.
I still think that associations with Boonskiies favor Lowell being lynched over Garmr.
PEDIT: I may have to check my calculations; I thought that the action by chilledtea only makes Garmr marginally more likely than random chance to be Mafia.
I find heuristically_alone a bit scattered here and probably need to read that slot again because I don't recall noticing anything significant from that slot.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
In post 1534, Dierfire wrote:I get 11/23 but I acknowledge the point.
Gah, I'm wrong again and mhsmith0 is right again. As chilledtea could not have been Mafia, Garmr had a baseline 1/11 (not 1/12) chance to be Mafia, giving a conditional probability of 12/23 rather than 11/23 (which also makes sense for the reasons that mhsmith0 gave).-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Ha ha, for my first significant finding, I see that I can save myself some typing!
In post 1474, heuristically_alone wrote:Feel free to call me Alone.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
That was a short review.
I have some ideas.
@Alone
You said that you are going back and forth on Garmr, and also that you think that the statistical discussion between mhsmith0 and me was helpful to Town. I assume, then, that you rate Lowell as more likely to be Mafia than the ~50% figure that mhsmith0 gave (or that you agree with Garmr that other factors decrease that probability).
Could you explain how confident you are in the Lowell read, and why?-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
Here's a cut-and-paste of my calculation from last night:
A = Garmr is Mafia
B = Kill is stopped
P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)
P(A) = 3/11
P(B) = P(C) + P(D) = 12/132 + 11/132 = 23/132
C = target is killer (1/11)
D = target is killed (1/12)
P (A|B) = P(B|A) * (3/11)(132/23) = (1/3) * (36/23) = 12/23
Adjust P(A) to 2/8, no change (2/8 = 3/12)-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
All right, I've been pretty deficient in content here lately. This is changing soon! Within 24 hours I plan to review texcat, after which time I will be ready to go ahead with a vote. I am close to committing by POE to the idea that Garmr and Lowell cannot both be Town (although not necessarily to the idea that they cannot both be Mafia).-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I reviewed texcat and again found a number of favorable associative points with Boonskiies (hammer intent in 988 is legitimate because if she were waiting for Boonskiies to claim to withdraw then she would not doubt the claim in 1018 or place the vote on the wagon as it was losing momentum in 1081). I'm content to leave her in the Town pile.
So, what's going on here? If Lowell is Mafia, is his partner also voting for Garmr (mhsmith0)? That seems an unlikely tactic, because if Garmr flips Town then Lowell would continue to be in danger. Is his partner avoiding the major wagons (Riabi, ToastyToast)? Those also seem like unlikely partners for Boonskiies and Lowell (Sakura was very aggressive with Boonskiies, ToastyToast was chosen by Boonskiies as the target of his false N1 action and doubted his claim). Is his partner on his wagon (texcat is an unlikely partner, Garmr is an irrelevant partner, Alone alone gives me pause)?
If Garmr is Mafia then things are much simpler. His partner would be Lowell (not worrisome) or Alone (seems more likely to be partners with Garmr than with Lowell due to the comment about the statistical discussion being helpful to Town but voting for Lowell).
There's also the question of the probability calculation; unless someone can make a powerfully compelling case for Garmr as Town (or for Lowell as Mafia), I think that Garmr is a superior choice for the lynch.
I think that this is good enough to proceed.
In summary: texcat, Riabi, mhsmith0, and ToastyToast have favorable associations with Boonskiies, and to various degrees seem unlikely partners for Lowell as well. Alone seems more likely to be partners with Garmr than with Lowell. If Lowell and Garmr are both Mafia then we're probably set anyway.
VOTE: Garmr-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@mhsmith0
You asked me for previous games.
TOWN
Newbie 1698 is the most recent Town game and is a nice short one. I died N1.
Mini 1774 is a bit odd with roles and mechanics. It was not a fantastic game for me.
Mini 1779 had a known SK but otherwise was a pretty good game for me.
MAFIA
Mini 1773 is a nice short one--I was shot N1 by a JOAT.
Newbie 1674 is one that I entered late, for which I apologize, but I haven't drawn Mafia in a game that I played from the start for quite some time!
Mini 1709 is an old one, and I also entered late.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I have no information that contradicts Alone's claim. The only thing that worries me is that he's reporting what appears to be a Tracker result (on Lowell N3) but calling it a Watcher result, which is the sort of thing that should be difficult to do if he actually has the PM in front of him.
If his claim does check out, I'll be looking at Lowell (I think that yesterday's wagons could easily have been cross-voting Mafia) or perhaps ToastyToast (who, having claimed VT, was apparently not communicating a clear result on me).-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I would believe that JOAT + Jailkeeper + Universal Backup is more balanced than Jailkeeper + Universal Backup here, unless the last Mafia player has a role with negative utility (and probably even then--also Traitor is not an option here because the Normal variant would have lost by now).
So, if everyone else is claiming VT here, then I'd consider Alone very likely to be Town.
The exact constellation of roles isn't one that I've seen before, but I could point to Mini 1708, which had a Town Jailkeeper and a Town BOAT. The Town also had an Even-Night Cop and a 1-Shot Gunsmith, and the Mafia had two Goons and a 1-Shot Tracker.
I also recall Mini 1735, which had Town Roleblocker, Town Tracker, and Town 1-Shot Gunsmith against Mafia Rolecop and Mafia Goon (in a game of 11 players). Adding another Goon and another VT, upgrading the Roleblocker to a Jailkeeper, and downgrading the Tracker to a Backup certainly seems to come out in favor of Mafia, even if the Rolecop is downgraded to an Encryptor.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@mhsmith0
Currently I believe that Lowell is most likely to be Mafia, although I need to check ToastyToast as well. I find it unlikely that Riabi is Mafia here but I can review that slot as well.In post 1694, mhsmith0 wrote:@Dier: who among the survivors is likeliest mafia if you flip green? Based on 1591 you think it's Lowell. Still there or anyone else? I'm leaning towards you as last mafia, but I'm not sold on it yet (I'd consider Lowell and Riabi both as plausible last mafia instead). In case the wagon is wrong, I'd like to hear your voice on things.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
This is an important point in the game, I think.
Is Lowell Town? If so, where is Garmr's partner?
If Lowell is Town, and we believe that Alone's reported action makes mhsmith0 clear, and we believe that balance favors Alone's claim being true, then at this point Garmr's partner is certainly not voting for Lowell. After Alone adds his vote to Garmr, Garmr drops the hammer on himself. I think that this speaks against either of the other players (Riabi, ToastyToast) being Mafia--Garmr should not have cut short the day if his partner were not voting for him already (and the last Town player was not obviously walking towards the wagon).-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
@ToastyToast
This will be less than helpful, but not really! Lowell is my chief suspect, but Alone asked me whether I would be willing to bet the entire game on it, so I think that I just need to take the time to sit down and read the game over to reassure myself.In post 1716, ToastyToast wrote:@Dietfire: is there something I can address with regards to your suspicion?
If you're bored in the meantime I guess that you could tell me who you think is the last Mafia player.-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015
I'm here.
I continue to like my vote on Lowell.
The point from mhsmith0 about Boon's reaction to being called a lurker by ToastyToast is a good one and raises my confidence there.
I do want to hear from Riabi before the day ends.
@Alone
Did you ever address the discrepancy between the Watcher action and the Tracker result?-
-
Dierfire Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Mafia Scum
- Posts: 3083
- Joined: February 17, 2015