Mini 1782 Game Over

[Roshar]

@Rosh you're right about the makeup of the wagon, I guess I was just blinded by concern for myself. I am making the mental adjustments from here on out to be less tunnelly.

What do you think about the Titus/Froot exchange? You've stated that you didn't have an opinion about Titus beginning of D4, has this still not changed?
Do you still not have an opinion about APF as well?

To clarify, are you saying that scum are waiting for town to make wagons then just join in on the wagon? Makes sense, if true then anyone starting a wagon is probably not scum, and the second player on a wagon less likely (but still possible)

I'm saying I don't think there's been careful thought and manipulation of the lynch by scum. Town created both the Clumsy and Max wagons, and scum pretty much had to decide which to push.

@Heur, have your town /scum reads changed at all during D4? Who are your scum reads currently?

[Roshar]

I was thinking this and that's why I asked her what changed her mind in Huntress' post. I actually would have had more respect for her vote if she'd said that she suspected Rosh had a PR and wanted to support her, or something. Instead she said something about preferring links to quotes which I can't believe.

I agree with this. If she had mentioned D4 that was her intention, then I could have rolled with the possibility that 1 smart town connected the dots. She said she wanted to know why I was extremely confident in my read (i.e maybe I'm seeing something super scummy that nobody else is seeing). This I can also roll with. But why would she show

concern

that I was extremely confident in my read?

@APF, Lowell is going to come back and vote for Titus. Your vote is left. And we'll get nothing from a no lynch. The other option would be to ask froot and I to change our vote. Those are three votes. We'd have to hope
1) FaQ comes back in time to change his vote
2) Titus is actually going to vote for Heur. Or that Lowell is going to change his vote, and as of yet I haven't seen interest from him on lynching Heur. (last I remember he town read Garmr)

Those are a lot of ifs.

@Johnny, what is your stance in all of this?

[Roshar]

Also, RC and FA are best buddies on MS or something, as they demonstrated many times in thread. So, I personally feel it likely that he left b/c he didn't want to hurt her feelings/wanted to be on her side. That's just me though.

[Roshar]

Johnny, your vote somewhere please. There's a day left.

[Roshar]

Guess I was late to this.

So Titus claims doctor. Assuming I don't block her, that means she would heal me. And if I die tonight, then she wasn't a doctor.

Okay, how about this Titus.

I won't be blocking you tonight.

If I die, then you're scum.

(Assuming Heur is scum) If a NK goes through, then whichever player I roleblocked is confirmed town. And I'll be alive to say it.

[Roshar]

Ok, so we're at either scum not buying my claim and trying to shoot Roshar or whoever Roshar blocked is scum.

I really doubt that scum shot Roshar. So who did you block Roshar?

Lowell is VLA until Tuesday. I saw this in another game. He apparently has lost internet again.

That is true. I forgot to mark such.
~Ircher

I blocked you.

In the chance that you were town, and mafia was out there, me saying I wouldn't block you would make me immune to a NK in mafia's eyes. So that was why.






VOTE: Titus

[Roshar]

Hahaha, I was kind of hoping you'd do that Roshar!

So, we have two options - that scum didn't send in an NK or Titus is scum?

I must say though, I do keep my promises most of the time lol but I wasn't gonna leave my strongest scum read and block Lowell/Johnny/FaQ instead.

Yes those are the two options.

Assuming scum didn't send in a NK, to frame whoever I role blocked, and we decide to lynch said player, that's only 1 kill. While scum can NK a town read player (APF, Froot), and then push yesterdays scum reads for the lynch (Titus/Lowell) - 2 kills. Scum lose from not using their NK.

This is all under the assumption that I wouldn't roleblock them themselves.

Scum just don't have that luxury after we killed two of them.

If titus was truly town PR, why wouldn't scum NK her? Why would they leave her alive protecting me and opt for a no kill. This would carry me, a role blocker, with them through N6. That's the worse possible outcome for them. To have a role blocker with them end of game.

Or option 2.

I blocked scum.

[Roshar]

There's two reasons not to vote me

The way Roshar set up the setup (if town) is that the most advantageous thing to do is to no kill. Then, whoever Roshar blocks looks guilty as shit. There's a 1/5 or 6 shot in her roleblocking actual scum. Mislynch me. Mislynch Roshar tomorrow. 3 player lylo on a platter.

If Roshar's scum, she gets a guaranteed mislynch on me and just argues scum no killed.

I've explained above why that would not be the most advantageous. I know you have to push this, because this is the only argument you have left, but this is very hard to believe.

I also would not be mislynched tomorrow, b/c 1) After the Huntress reveal and lynch, I'm pretty much confirmed town 2) We all acknowledge the tiny tinnnyyy possibility that scum no killed.

We're three mislynches away from losing the game (according to you), so there's really no need to be paranoid.

Facts are facts, I blocked you, and no kill occurred. I'm sorry, but we would be idiots to lynch another player, when we have evidence against you.

And the fact that you're pointing to me being possible scum, is so so survivalistic and paranoia fostering. This is not town play.

[Roshar]

Either she's scum or scum is CRAZY you don't leave two claimed PRs alive like this

Who else fits with Heur/Huntress?

I'd like to remind everyone of what Heuristically's read on Titus was:

Because of the pre game business I mentioned the slight scum lean. I noticed that Titus seems to like to post most right after a vote count and not much at other times, and I think it gives that player a little power since they are pretty much commencing the next step in the game, it could be a power gaining role thing, similar to a phone call and the person getting in the last word having the most power, or two men shaking hands and the one that lets go first being in the weaker position. Not a scum or town specific tell, but kind of gives more leading power in my opinion if true. I would like to see more posts, but I'm feeling null slight scum lean.

This basically says, 'I did say I find her scummy, but this is only because of the pre-game stuff, nothing real or concrete for me to actually push her. Let me explain to you a bunch of game mechanics and avoid talking about the actual slot"

[Roshar]

Why do you think I'm being disingenuous?

They'd be replacing a cleared townie with a cleared townie but also reducing the player pool. Killing APF would mean Day 6 mylo with one cleared player from four; no killing takes it to day 7 with three uncleared players.

This.

I'd rather allow the confirming of a townie any day over extending the game for myself as scum (with two PRs) and not doing anything about the player pool.

[Roshar]

Because you are pretending like the proper action for everyone wasn't no killing to try and get my mislynch or you're so clueless that you actually buy that.

Killing APF
No lynch
--- Same kill plot hole, do you kill me or confirm a townie here...

Eventually, scum have to make a no kill to try and force a mislynch and Roshar's thereafter if Roshar's town

(Or Roshar has to make that point if scum)

Scum have to no kill at some point.

Because the proper action for scum wasn't no killing. I think you'd be clueless to buy that scum no killed to set a chain of lynches. One of them being confirmed town.

[Roshar]

I'm here, fat fingering phone.

@rosh, I hate to say this, because i want to be right about Titus scum, but doesn't the way you set this up pretty much guarantee a scum no kill last night, given your every other night role claim?

How does it guarantee a scum no kill? As in scum wouldn't NK so that whoever I role blocked will look guilty instead of being confirm town?

I didn't exactly set anything up. It's common sense for whoever I block to be confirm town if a NK goes through. I just explained my predictions for D5. In hindsight, I could have done without that bit, as it may have helped scum come up with a possible no kill idea, but like I really find it overall disadvantageous for scum to settle for only one kill (mislynch).

I'm going to agree with APF that I didn't like FaQ's only two possible scenarios not taking into account that Titus and I could both be town. Saying one of us is definitely scum has no basis. And it conveniently allows for him to point the finger and lynch me tomorrow, if Titus flips town. As much as I couldn't see Titus' theory happening, and disagreed about my mislynch ever being possible, FaQ's post lays the groundwork for it.

VOTE: Unvote for now.

[Roshar]

Reading up

[Roshar]

Right. I don't think scum would have considered making me look suspicious by the no kill, after I got Huntress lynched D4. When she was town read by everybody after I created a case against her.
If I was scum, do you think I'd get scum to no kill N2? And then proceed to get huntress lynched? Answer this for me. This an enormous set-back for scum. 1) Scum would have missed a kill N2. 2)I'd have killed a scum buddy. One who was majorly town read at the time of my claim.

So, the whole scum making me look suspicious argument by using a, "no kill" on even days does not resonate with me.

If we lynch Titus, and she flips town, then scum is actually using 'no kills' to avoid getting a confirmed town and to get an mislynch. Which means I'll most probably be NK'd D5. Why? So that scum can comfortably night kill N6. So, APF, I don't think scum would leave me alive tomorrow (in your no kill scenario). This would cost them a NK on D6 (if I block scum, or if they decide to 'no kill' again).

I honestly think we won't go forward without a titus lynch. While I didn't like the FaQ suggestion that there are only two possible scenario (i.e one scum between Titus and I), there have been multiple responses that say they may find me suspicious upon a Titus town flip. So, as of yet, this isn't amounting to very much to me.
Before this whole wifom scenario, I found titus suspicious for her response to my Huntress suggestion, her fragmented superficial reasons for voting Lowell ("your play has been terrible all game"), Heur's empty slight scum read on Titus (and interestingly when Titus was being voted by everyone, Heur showed unwillingness to vote Titus) and despite the fact that I don't know the most about game mechanics, I find it suspiciously convenient that titus would claim a PR when at L-1.



VOTE: Titus

[Roshar]

Lowell did nothing on D1 or D2.

Firstly, inactivity does not equal scum. But actually did do things D1. He was a strong Clumsy lynch supporter. He was also willing to lynch Max. And those responses are town to me. D2, he made a case against me. And at first, you stated you'd join him and vote for me, (once you saw proper context) if it wasn't for the fact that you wanted to push Max. So it's untrue to say he did nothing D1 and D2.

[Roshar]

He quick voted Huntress after placing doubt for Huntress forcing Roshar's claim.

I assume you mean he placed doubt on my slot, to force me to claim.

I find it far less likely for mafia to scum read me D3 and town read Huntress. I find it far more likely for scum to distance themselves. Look at Garmr's response when I asked him what his read on Huntress was. This is imo, an expected scum response. He shows he's not adverse to lynching Huntress. Here it is again:

I'm unsure how I feel about it I find huntress hard to read. Maybe I would lynch her but I prefer my vote.

I don't see how Lowell's actions were pushing me to claim. He had scum read me through D2. Before I made a Huntress case. So, this was not a ploy he came up with to get me to claim.
He town read Huntress. But so did APF, Froot, Mhs, FaQ (I think). So, what about Lowell's town read in particular made you think he was trying to draw out a claim?

By the same reasoning, you'd think froot is scum b/c she kept pointing out the faults in my argument against Huntress. So, this push on Lowell are for reasons which you could use to scum read other slots.

[Roshar]

Can you explain the motive of scum behind quick hammering scum slots?

[Roshar]

That's why he wound up in my vote pool options along with HA.

Would just like to clarify, while Heur was in your vote pool, you did not actually push him.

[Roshar]

@Roshar,

First, when I said did nothing day 1 and day 2. I meant he pushed jackshit, not that he was inactive. He wasn't strong on anything to me. That's why he wound up in my vote pool options along with HA. Right now, he's been inactive and thus no one can question him about his actions. (Normally, I'd find that scummy but his V/LA is pretty well documented).

Yeah, he was placing doubt on your credibility, forcing you to claim. Just because you wouldn't do it, doesn't make it not the optimal action for mafia to take. Garmr's response is also a scum driven response but scum rarely all act in the same manner towards all of their buddies.

He placed doubt on my credibility from D2. A day before I claimed. He didn't suddenly find me suspicious when I claimed.

[Roshar]

No, but your logic is that he fabricated his push on me so that he can force me to claim.

I'm telling you the timing of his push on me had nothing to do with my claim.

[Roshar]

Can you explain the motive of scum behind quick hammering scum slots?

No claim to analyze. No responses need to be given.

If their buddy is already going down, they get to appear as on the wagon

. You can't slip up and say the wrong thing about a buddy's claim if they never make one.

So two reasons then.

1) To avoid association/slipping

But huntress had claimed before Lowell hammered. And he said he didn't buy it.

2) Their buddy is already going down, they get on the wagon in an attempt to distance themselves.

You're saying Lowell had an idea about me being a possible town PR. And he tried to get me to claim. How would he have not picked up on me stating I wouldn't change my vote? On me saying, 'I'll explain later (why I won't change my vote)".

If scum was this dense, then there's no way scum planned an elaborate, 'no kill' that would lead to chain mislynches.

[Roshar]

These were more than veiled references.

@1287

3- what do I think of clumsy? well he's dead. What I definitely don't like is roshar's half-assed "oh gosh guys I don't know, maybe he's scummy, I'm not sure... hmm let me ask.... [looks up lead engineer of clumsy wagon].... LOWELL, what do you think?" He knew what I thought, clumsy is literally the only thing I talked about yesterday. Rosh wanted the wagon to move, he just didn't want to take the blame for it.

Read his post. He talks about all the reasons clumsy "might" be scum and his suspicions. Instead of voting, he turns to me, arbitrarily, at the end to find out what I think of clumsy.

Why me? Because he damn well knows what I'm going to say, which is "HELLS YEAH LET'S LYNCH CLUMSY!" Why would he ask one of the only people who actually HAD a known opinion about a player to comment on that player? So that the case could be emphasized (again) and he wouldn't have to do it.

VOTE: rosh

Boom. Scum.

And excuse me if I'm not extremely confident in my scum reads. Not everyone plays the game like you do, Lowell. Excuse me if I like to get fresh input on the main wagon (esp after Clumsy had new posts). What is the point of asking players already on the wagon for their recent feedback? Their vote already is on Clumsy. The only logical reason is to see if they've changed their opinions after Clumsy's recent posting. So how the hell is this pushing the Clumsy wagon?

Nice try, but no. It's not that you wanted "fresh input." If you had, you would have asked someone who hadn't already weighed in. You asked me specifically because you

already knew

my view on clumsy and wanted me to be my typical bombastic self and move the wagon forward so you wouldn't have to.

No but seriously if I were scum I definitely would have killed Nos. So yeah she's right about that.

But anyway, I'm not, and didn't, and actually the fact that she thought about this in this way says more about her scumminess than mine.

[Roshar]

I would expect more analysis from a player who has previously displayed smooth transitions (one could follow) between changes in reads. But Lowell has demonstrated time and time again his quick change of mind. He scum read me pre-game, then changed his mind with no reason as to why with a, "Rosh is fine for now". His doesn't give reasons for his town reads, unless prodded, and he gives very little reason for his scum reads. To suddenly frame it like this particular quick change of mind was because he wanted to distance himself wouldn't explain all the other times he quickly changed his mind on town reads alike.

[Roshar]

I'm sorry, I've been unexpectedly busy in the past two days babysitting.
Will post tonight.

[Roshar]

3 players are pushing a titus lynch.

2 players are pushing a lowell lynch.

Lowell is obviously not going to vote Lowell. Unless he chooses to withhold his vote. @Lowell, if your choices for the lynch are Titus or yourself, will you not vote?

While Johnny has said Lowell is not obvious scum, he doesn't want him to win because he lurked and doesn't want to give him an easy win if scum. His vote may go over there.

@Titus, why is Froot second on your list? What I don't understand is you not being able to see how town can see your play as scummy. Do you think it's scummy to reach a conclusion that you're scummy? Have you derived a conclusion about FaQ's slot (because he's not on your scum list).

@Johnny, do you think it's possible that N2, (if I was scum) I'd tell my scum buddies to no kill. Then pretend to be a role blocker, and get my scum buddy (who was widely town read) lynched the following day based on a fake claim? If no, then can you link a game where there have been 4 scum with 13 players?

[Roshar]

So, the only way your play can be seen as scummy is if we lie and manipulate. I've never played with you before, but I'm really surprised that this is the only conclusion you can reach. The inability to see why others consider you scummy looks like stubborn denial to me.

Froot hasn't denied that Lowell is scum. She thinks scum is more likely you though based largely on the events of D3. She stated multiple times why she derived those conclusions.

Are you seriously throwing shade at me right now for trying to pick up the pace of the game? There are three days left, a week has passed. I'd like to get things moving before last minute (like yesterday).

[Roshar]

Scum mislynch based on lies and manipulation. Town mislynch based on deriving the wrong conclusions. Saying it was lies and manipulation that lead to your scum read means that whoever scum read you is scum.

It'll really suck if you flip town, but I have multiple reasons for why I think you're scum. I will say that despite all the defending of Lowell I was making, it was all in relation to you. I think it was the most likely course of action to distance yourself from scum (huntress), instead of town reading them and scum reading me and blatantly ignoring my question. However, if you flip town, the possibility that Lowell took big risks will be next on my table.

[Roshar]

@Johnny, do you think it's possible that N2, (if I was scum) I'd tell my scum buddies to no kill. Then pretend to be a role blocker, and get my scum buddy (who was widely town read) lynched the following day based on a fake claim? If no, then can you link a game where there have been 4 scum with 13 players?

Do you have reasons why you think Lowell is scummy? Other than him being way too easy.

[Roshar]

That is a good point, but then there's the fact that if she does flip town, he'd look really bad.

[Roshar]

APF, I think this may come down to you.

[Roshar]

Huntress had claimed before he hammered. Yes, it does look suspicious that he thought her claim was bs and hammered. But if he's scum, he'd have handled things terribly D3 when I pushed the Huntress case. Like too terribly to be scum. But then again, that's never a reason to clear someone.

I still want to push Titus for today's lynch though.

[Roshar]

APF, I'll go with Lowell today. I'll most likely be dead tomorrow to allow for the convenience of a NK on N6. I'll compromise and go for my second, if you do the same tomorrow and go for Titus tomorrow (assuming Lowell isn't scum).

Deal?

[Roshar]

Fair.

[Roshar]

VOTE: Lowell

[Roshar]

So we win even if we're dead? Yaaaay. Good game all.

I wasn't aware there was a dead pt.

@Mhs, about me saying I wasn't going to roleblock titus : I was considering role-blocking someone other than titus, and didn't want to be targeted by titus if she was scum. I wanted to force her not to NK me. This meant I'd be protected, if titus was scum, or if someone else was. The one thing I didn't consider was that she'd opt for a no kill, and I'm lucky I decided on blocking her in the end. I was kind of puzzled when she came out and asked who I blocked, when if scum who submitted a NK, I think she'd stay far from that question.
Also, it was you and Froot that laid down the Titus case and scum motive behind bussing Huntress. Froot too made me see how unlikely Lowell's D3 actions would be if he was scum. Town was strong this game. Apf and his strong Heur push too.

And about the deal, day was ending and some wanted to avoid lynching Titus b/c they'd feel bad if they were being too wary of her and I was getting tired of waiting for a flip. I also wanted to ascertain a titus lynch tomorrow, I know APF would have kept his word, and Froot would definitely be on. I suppose I could have been more obstinate though.

I still don't understand mafia's Nos NK as he was an ideal mislynch imo.

And @Froot, when you stick to a case, you drill the hell out of it XD I kinda feel bad for Titus having you on her case haha, and I was really worried D3 if you'd find me suspicious.

@Huntress, your defending was pretty good. If your earlier play had damned you (for me), your defense got you town read. If it wasn't for the no kill, I'd have seriously doubted myself.

@Clumsy, sorry buddy, there were times I felt like your tone was towny, but I didn't back down from pushing you. When doubt seeds in your mind, it's hard to remove.

GG everybody.

[Roshar]

@Froot, it was more the neighbor thing you found suspicious and I was getting frustrated that you wouldn't let it go. By the same token though, the trait had you pushing Titus strongly and consistently.

[Roshar]

@mhsmith, I think your titus analysis prob got you killed.

[Roshar]

I suspect it did. But I figured they were shooting you anyway so it didn't really matter. Given that you RB'd Titus N4 buying town another day, I think it was overall ok in the end.

Yeah, I was really surprised they didn't get me instead. I guess they felt you posts must have been pretty threatening. I actually kinda bought APF analysis on why they didn't.