Mini 1782 Game Over

[FA_Q2]

Here. Can I get some recap's and thoughts on what has happened thus far. I am not likely to read the day in its entirety (particularly as there looks to be a lot of pointless drama thus far) but would like anything of note to be pointed out so that I can poke around.

[FA_Q2]

I'm on my phone so I can't quote.

I think there's evidence that that inactivity was legitimate, rather than scum avoiding saying anything in the thread. Voting for clumsy for inactivity is now illegitimate for me.

Is that the only reasoning behind the wagon on clumsy? That would seem rather odd considering they seem to be the only wagon at this point.

[FA_Q2]

I am thinking Max is scum here based on wagon jumping. The clumsy wagon remained static while people jumped off Max. If Clumsy is scum, there are hard core bussers there.

Explain?

I do not see 'wagon jumping' at all. I barely see any voting at all. He voted once and gave a reason for it. Do you feel that reason is a lie? Why?

[FA_Q2]

I am thinking Max is scum here based on wagon jumping. The clumsy wagon remained static while people jumped off Max. If Clumsy is scum, there are hard core bussers there.

Explain?

I do not see 'wagon jumping' at all. I barely see any voting at all. He voted once and gave a reason for it. Do you feel that reason is a lie? Why?

I don't think she meant max was jumping, but people were jumping on and off max.

I see. That makes more sense though I think is a weaker argument against him. Going to have to look into that.

[FA_Q2]

Ok. Ty. *scribbles*

My headspace is that Max was a scum wagon that failed to take hold. People didn't scumhunt much after I got back from my Vla though.

Where are you at?

Why?

I do not see any case that you have supported or placed for that slot. What makes his wagon scummy?

[FA_Q2]

Ok. Ty. *scribbles*

My headspace is that Max was a scum wagon that failed to take hold. People didn't scumhunt much after I got back from my Vla though.

Where are you at?

Why?

I do not see any case that you have supported or placed for that slot. What makes his wagon scummy?

The fact you're posting this rather than pushing who you think is scum or scumhunting.

The group was presented with two wagons. One took off and the other didn't. Why? Why did the game stall with Maxous's wagon but Clumsy's wagon went through when Maxous has done nothing?

It strongly suggests Maxous is scum as well. Even in the rare event I'm wrong, a lot of the game state reveals itself in a Max flip.

Overall, a Max wagon is an excellent place to be until he proves otherwise.

Why aren't you pushing a wagon but instead derailing scumhunting?

When has asking a question meant derailing?

Apparently, asking Titus what she is getting at is a no no. Considering you have done nothing at all except vote one player without putting up a case you really do not have a leg to stand on. Further, I replaced in right at the end of the last day. I am not slogging through 40 pages of vitriol and force replacements to engage with a player list that only contains half of the players present.

Why are you not scum hunting rather than voteparking the max slot?

[FA_Q2]

I posted a bit about what I thought about Max yesterday.

Lowell - some people asked you questions yesterday but you haven't answered.

This is an annoying response to a call to action

Titus do you ever get tired of explaining when you don't re-read a thread?

Fack2 you either seem to not understand the way Titus is analyzing d1 or you're just willingly ignoring it but this lil tussle you two are having doesn't seem to be going anywhere favorable for you in my eyes

Really? Basically threatening?

You don't like it. Tough shit.

VOTE: JohnnyFarrar

[FA_Q2]

Yes, I'm here. Not really what to think of Roshar's stuff lately. Need to re-read her ISO.

on a related note, given that we're talking about Nos (sort of), does anyone want to claim being her neighbor? It's obvious that someone was her neighbor; I haven't played much with neighbor mechanics before, so I don't know if it does or doesn't make sense for anyone to step forward on that front. If you presume she was an SPK, then it seems reasonable that she may have said something interesting or useful in neighbor chat that's worth sharing with the board.

PS I'll admit that I'm having some trouble making reads in this game. Partially because I don't want to slog through the prolonged mess portion of the game, partially because some other stuff has been higher priority lately. I'll re-read this evening and try to have something useful to say, hopefully tonight, MAYBE tomorrow night.

If something was said in the hood that was worth the trouble I would have assumed that they would have come forward already. What purpose do you think coming forward at this point would serve?

[FA_Q2]

Not very keen on Lowells push on Rosh for asking him about his stance on clumsy. It feels like he is misrepresenting rosh and it is a rather weak reason. It does not help that he makes the proclamation rosh is scum and then does not continue to engage with rosh after he responds. Rather, he posts that he would have killed Nos if he were scum. Why go there and ignore Rosh's push back?

No but seriously if I were scum I definitely would have killed Nos. So yeah she's right about that.

But anyway, I'm not, and didn't, and actually the fact that she thought about this in this way says more about her scumminess than mine.

Why?

Why you 'definitely would have killed Nos?' This statement really does not make sense.

VOTE: lowell

[FA_Q2]

It's still in the middle of day two. Maybe they don't want to rush, maybe she didn't say anything interesting, maybe theyre worried about getting wolf read if they declare themselves, I honestly don't know.

That does not really address why you tried to draw them out though.

[FA_Q2]

you have literally only elaborated on one read.

I'm only pushing one read at the moment. The others are sitting on the back burner because I want to reread some stuff in context first and then update my reads. I should be able to do some of that tomorrow.

Your vote preceded the back and fourth between lowell and rosh. What are your thoughts on lowell's charge?

[FA_Q2]

Faq's 1395 seems rather fabricated to me, and trying to snowball a wagon would be a something I'd expect from scum at this time of day. Lowell was right when he suggested his general unhelpfulness up to this point makes him the easy wagon to jump on, so his would be a good choice for scum looking to make one of the wagons the frontrunner.

0The interesting thing about this statement (and your vote) is that applies equally to what you just pulled. Further, you avoided anything I have actually stated, utterly ignored the case I put forth and essentially said I am scum because I voted loewll. Not even a question or a challenge for me to answer.

Very poor vote :/

[FA_Q2]

Not very keen on Lowells push on Rosh for asking him about his stance on clumsy. It feels like he is misrepresenting rosh and it is a rather weak reason. It does not help that he makes the proclamation rosh is scum and then does not continue to engage with rosh after he responds. Rather, he posts that he would have killed Nos if he were scum. Why go there and ignore Rosh's push back?

No but seriously if I were scum I definitely would have killed Nos. So yeah she's right about that.

But anyway, I'm not, and didn't, and actually the fact that she thought about this in this way says more about her scumminess than mine.

Why?

Why you 'definitely would have killed Nos?' This statement really does not make sense.

VOTE: lowell

Eh, what can I say. I was feeling truthful at the moment.

Still, try to see through the awkwardness of it and to my obvtowniness. I know this is asking a lot. Be strong here.

That is hard to do when you continue to avoid addressing things that have been said to you.

[FA_Q2]

^do you think he is playing at not understanding then?

[FA_Q2]

I'll try to comment on some other things tomorrow, but for now I'll address a couple things directed to me:

Faq's 1395 seems rather fabricated to me, and trying to snowball a wagon would be a something I'd expect from scum at this time of day. Lowell was right when he suggested his general unhelpfulness up to this point makes him the easy wagon to jump on, so his would be a good choice for scum looking to make one of the wagons the frontrunner.

What is about FAQ's post which makes you think it was fabricated?

The way FAQ contends that Lowell is scummy is rather implicit and oblique. "Why go there and ignore Rosh's push back?" and "This statement really does not make sense." are things he could say to let readers piece together in their own minds why Lowell is scum, giving FAQ the benefit of the doubt, and allowing him to say that he's town and he was merely a little bit lazy with that post.

That makes no sense at all. If I were trying to hedge then I wouldn't have voted there and certainly would not still be pushing lowell to bother to respond to the posts - something he has not done.

Then consider the circumstances: the day is winding down, his vote made Lowell the largest wagon, and Lowell is a rather easy vote at the moment. It reeks to me of subtly trying to direct the town towards a mislynch.

0The interesting thing about this statement (and your vote) is that applies equally to what you just pulled. Further, you avoided anything I have actually stated, utterly ignored the case I put forth and essentially said I am scum because I voted loewll. Not even a question or a challenge for me to answer.

Very poor vote :/

I did leave you a thing to chew on:

I'm still interested in the answer to this question, btw, even though he seems to have moved on:

@Fack: Is the Johnny vote because of the "threatening"? And is it really worse in your eyes than what you saw Titus doing?

That had nothing to do with my statements so no, that is not 'something to chew on.' In all fairness though I did not see your question though and it dies deserve an answer. Johnny's action were not worse than titus but were something that might have yielded some more information with a vote. Something I did not think I was going to get with titus. I still do not like the interaction between the two of them mostly considering that titus is laying very low this game and hard tunneling one slot. It seemed to have gone nowhere though as johnny simply ignored the vote and lowell is more deserving of a vote atm.

[FA_Q2]

so I was thinking APF is scum but now APF is hard-defending me and i've gotten confused again.

meh, sorry i wasn't involved enough to point out the scum-team here but i would deffo say huntress anyway.
enough of this "I can't read her because she isn't giving me much to go on".
like, yah think there might be a reason for that? it's called lurking and it's a pretty effective scum-tactic.

What is this? A lot of nothing and you are sitting at L-1 with an intent already stated. Claim.

[FA_Q2]

Ok, I will want to make a couple of checks but right now I think we need to look at the players who did not push any wagon heavily D1 since both flipped town.

I find this rather interesting. You think scum is off the wagons that flipped town? That makes little to no sense at all. It also backs people into a corner - you are scum because you did not push a town flip/you are scum because you did push a town flip.

@Titus: Hmm, I think that potentially makes sense. Need to mull it over. That said, given that it was town v town, why wouldn't wolves have wanted to take the opportunity to look town by pushing a lynch at a time when the outcome didn't much matter?

PS One other thing I think we now can be confident on: we're almost certainly in 10v3 (no SK, no multiball). I'm not entirely sure how that helps us just yet, but at the least I think it does help narrow the game state.

It's not impossible for my analysis to be wrong but why would the wolves be pushing in an apathetic state when town just made two mislynches? I think it's more likely that wolves are just exclusively pushing bad ideas because we didn't FoS/vote them.

This assumes that they were pushed by town. How do you know that info?

[FA_Q2]

FaQ, I'd also like your read on huntress.

Slight town read. I do not get the scum read on huntress. Your case centers around her avoiding the Clumsy wagon but considering huntress was on the Max wagon - its counter and just as likely to be the lynch and just as town - it really is not a valid point.

The other side of your read seems to essentially be a lurker read. I have found that lurker is essentially non-alignment indicative unless there is a reason for the lurking.

[FA_Q2]

I still do not like titus at all. I do not see this as titus town play.

VOTE: titus

[FA_Q2]

I am here and reading but I do not have the time to put up a reasonable post. I should have some time tomorrow for some content.

[FA_Q2]

Going through Garmr's ISO I have to agree with farmer. Garmr essentially avoided giving any reads at all. He only voted for hunter because they were essentially confirmed scum.

Anyone have any thoughts on why smith was the target over our claimed PR? That one seemed rather odd to me.

[FA_Q2]

VOTE: heuristically_alone

[FA_Q2]

Can barely recall where this game is going after that long outage.

APF - what do you think of HA's catch up post?

[FA_Q2]

Froot is almost certainly town based on the Smith kill.

Why is that?

[FA_Q2]

@Froot, I did consider something odd about my interaction with titus, and this was when she asked me to make a case on Huntress without using quotes. She had shown concern that I wasn't willing to change my vote so early in the day 1576 . My reply was that I would, "explain later" regarding not changing my vote, and then I explained my case 1578. She voted Huntress (1582), and it made me consider that she may have known what I was hinting about.

Your point (mhs as well I believe) is that scum wouldn't have defended huntress knowing she was most likely caught by a role-blocker. And I agree. Would you feel better about players who town read her on D3?

Garmr didn't have a town read on her when I asked him in 1573. I also didn't like his APF vote early D3 for reasons he had used in D2. Don't like the Johnny vote either, or the reasoning behind it (frozen was over-reacting, she was playing us good, Johnny was using the, "if I was scum" which is apparently scummy")

FoS Heuristically

.


Lowell, you aren't obvious town to me. I'm going to feel like an idiot if you flip scum, but it is a good point that you town read Huntress quite strongly, and scum read me, in the sense that I don't think you would have done that knowing who I might be.

With that said


VOTE: Titus

Why onto titus after posting a lowell case?

What makes titus a stronger scum read than lowell?

[FA_Q2]

Why onto titus after posting a lowell case?

Why you asking about Lowell and not Heur?

Because his vote on titus just did not seem right after the statements about Lowell. After reading it again though, I think that I misunderstood exactly what he was saying about lowell's posting.

[FA_Q2]

UNVOTE:

I need to sort out lowell and titus

[FA_Q2]

I can see titus case against lowell but I still get strong scum vibes from titus. This is simply not titus's town game from my experience with her.

VOTE: titus

L-2

[FA_Q2]

What's different?

Every time I have played with town titus she has not only been very aggressive but rather crass about it all around.

Here she just seems more mellowed out and more 'appeasy' in general tone. Last time I seen this it was from scum titus.

[FA_Q2]

Not much to really comment on since my last post.

Why are you not voting johnny?

[FA_Q2]

What do you think about whether or not scum would've known that Roshar was the roleblocker?

I think this is directed at me so...

I think that scum certainly would have thought it was a strong possibility. Read through rosh's ISO and note every single time that he mentions huntress prior to post 1508 (the Max lynch). Universally rosh mentioned that huntress is a low posting slot that he cannot get a goo dread on. There are multiple pushes for more content from the slot itself and even one post that I would consider soft defending the slot itself in 1417. Going into day 3 there is little to zero indication that rosh has a hard scum read through day 2. Right in the beginning of day 3 though rosh pushes huntress immediately. If I were scum that just had a failed kill that would ping my radar rather hard.

Now, that does not mean that they would necessarily KNOW that rosh was the one that blocked the kill (and it could have even been a doctor) so I think that they would likely try and draw a claim out. This is a bit of WIFOM though - we cannot necessarily fret out what scum was actually thinking but it is a solid theory that scum had strong suspicions of rosh.

[FA_Q2]

Not much to really comment on since my last post.

Why are you not voting johnny?

Why are you? I have had him as obvtown since the neighbor thing.

Hmmm, commas are important. That was supposed to be: Why are you not voting, johhny?

IOW, why has johnny not voted for anyone.

I was not voting him as the VC shows, I am voting you...

[FA_Q2]

...

With yesterdays flip I was beginning to think that titus was town. This makes no sense.

[FA_Q2]

I really only see 2 possibilities - Rosher is a scum rolecop and managed to find smith's role and use that to set up his claim and bus his team mate and targeted whoever titus protected - this seems highly unlikely - or Titus is lying about her role and is the last scum using hur as town cred as they were both on the chopping block yesterday. I find that a more likely possibility. I don't see them both as being town. Particularly when we are missing another odd night claim. Odd/even roles have been rather balanced in games I have played before.


Would a mass claim benefit us at this point? I would claim first if town feels that this is a good move (and I don't see why not considering we already have 2 PR roles out there and they are claimed roles that would take top priority).

[FA_Q2]

I really do not see how any of the last 2 real time days has added anything on the table. Titus is still the best lynch here with Roshar's block without a kill, titus no kill from scum is still less believable than Titus claim. I also still think that a mass claim is a good call at this point considering that we already have 2 claimed PR roles out there. I do not see how this would hurt town. Without another odd night claim I think that 2 even night claims are unlikely.

[FA_Q2]

@Titus

: I understand your points against Lowell and they're valid, of course. Some of it is IIOA (1953) but the things you're saying happened happened. I have a different interpretation of some of those actions, particularly his vote on Huntress.

I think your play has been scummier, and more likely as scum, and there's more evidence to support you being scum than Lowell.

@FA_Q2

: What help do you think we'll get from a claim?

I think we could get a read on how believable both Roshar's role and Titus role are.

Like I have said, I do not see both those roles in this game - they do not make any sense to me.

[FA_Q2]

Massclaiming right now could very well hurt town by letting the scum better target their kills tonight. It might be worthwhile to massclaim tomorrow, but not today.

Also, let's not lynch Rosh, ever. Even disregarding anything pertaining to her role, she's obvtown.

The way I see it, we have three lynches left, and three lynch candidates: FAQ, Lowell, Titus. So this should be pretty simple. I know some people are also suspecting Johnny, but is there anyone who is suspecting Johnny

more

than any of those three?

Better than targeting the RB and the doc?

Do you really think that there is a more powerful role in town that scum can target?

[FA_Q2]

What if there is a role that could provide the town some information tomorrow? And even if we were to glean some information from that reveal as to whether or not Titus's claim is true, the sacrifice would not be worth it. An even-night doctor or roleblocker isn't worth that much more than a VT at this stage.

Point taken - I see why tomorrow would be preferable.

[FA_Q2]

Also I'll laugh/cry if it is Titus now that I've cleared her. She'll be all "LOLOL you guys even blocked me and I still won LOLOLOLOL"

'cleared her?'

and how have you done that?

[FA_Q2]

Johnny and FAQ, you should vote. I wont be mad if it's not up to your normal standards.

thought I had already placed my vote on titus.
VOTE: titus

[FA_Q2]

@Johnny, do you think it's possible that N2, (if I was scum) I'd tell my scum buddies to no kill. Then pretend to be a role blocker, and get my scum buddy (who was widely town read) lynched the following day based on a fake claim? If no, then can you link a game where there have been 4 scum with 13 players?

Do you have reasons why you think Lowell is scummy? Other than him being way too easy.

I also find it rather odd that Titus has not claimed a target for night 2 unless I missed it and reading through the day I do not see any indication that there was a protective action taken there. It would have meant that your claim was not necessarily a guilty on huntress (though we now know that it was).

[FA_Q2]

Scum lowell would have already hammered titus. It's not like he hesitated hammering scum.

[FA_Q2]

Titus has to be scum. Nothing else really makes sense to me.

VOTE: titus

Holding off on this will not help. We will just go in circles all over again and create WIFOM with no help and giver her the possibility of wiggling out of it yet again.

[FA_Q2]

Knew that titus was the last one - that claim just could not stand. Thank god you guys left that opening or titus probably would have slid out of being lynched again - she is good at that

Thanks for not lynching me town - I know that I totally would have. My VC was so damn horrible that I don't think I could even try to defend myself - no way to do so. I was wrong on basically everything other than titus

[FA_Q2]

You can release my hood - it is not as though there was anything in there. It didn't last long enough to use anyway

[FA_Q2]

I was impressed the game didn't end D5.

Why didn't the mafia ever claim to be Nos's neighbor? And for that matter, FA_Q2, you could've full-claimed && they would've likely believed you.

(At the very least, if you claim and get lynch, it should guarantee a town win).

likely because I would have cced that claim and we were not in lylo.

I didn't claim for 3 reasons - 1) town absolutely lost their goddamned minds when they were claiming nos neighbor was scum. Scum will not kill a 1 on 1 hood mate because of the manipulation possibilities are very strong. 2) I was not on the block yet - that was a claim for the block and 3) after all that I got absolutely nothing with my voyeur ability. That really is a pretty poor ability to have in a general sense. Having a PR though solidified my thoughts that titus was scum and one of the reasons that I pushed for a full claim. I think it was apparent that her claim did not fit the gamestate.

[FA_Q2]

You could probably stand to be less blunt and more forgiving in your criticisms. Also, given that rc was a wolf, and his commentary there was IIRC the first thing that kinda pinged me on his slot, I'm not sure how valid the "mod confirmed us town" argument really is. I think the mod confirmed you weren't both wolves together, but v/w probably gets a similar step in (ditto multi-ball, wolf/sk etc).

Not really. That was a massive logical idiocy in general and I could not call anyone out on it because so many simply nodded their heads in agreement with something that is counter to mafia strategy in general.

[FA_Q2]

Neat thread. Wondering what Bells had to say but I didn't read anything prior to my replacing so it probably doesn't matter.

Doc claim wasn't bad, Titus, but the actual roles in the game made a doc seem too farfetched

Town had a lot of power and scum had no safe PR claims.

Investigative gets countered twice. RB was present. JK tipped. Doc was the only play.

I would have been far more likely to believe a vanilla town.

I was a PR though. The absolute worst part of your claim was not the doc portion though - it was the fact that you claimed even. That did not jive at all nor does it fit with RB/JK. Too much protection and not even distribution with odd/even.

[FA_Q2]

Neat thread. Wondering what Bells had to say but I didn't read anything prior to my replacing so it probably doesn't matter.

Doc claim wasn't bad, Titus, but the actual roles in the game made a doc seem too farfetched

Town had a lot of power and scum had no safe PR claims.

Investigative gets countered twice. RB was present. JK tipped. Doc was the only play.

I would have been far more likely to believe a vanilla town.

I was a PR though. The absolute worst part of your claim was not the doc portion though - it was the fact that you claimed even. That did not jive at all nor does it fit with RB/JK. Too much protection and not even distribution with odd/even.

Odd would have been bad too though, since I'd flipped odd jk. Would have been even more OP on that side. I think the game state was simply unsuited to fake claims; IMO that's a balance to the fairly nerfed town prs and the Mafia counters to them.

Well yes, odd would have had the same implications. Hindsight is 20 20 and all but if she was going to claim I would have claimed something without a modifier or just went for vanilla town. As my role was not known - voyeur would not have been a bad idea. Perhaps hider as well - something that is not particularly strong (or at least not as strong as a doc) or a BG (though BG would have to deal with not saving roshar so that is most likely a bad idea.