Mini Normal 1857 (Game Over - Mafia Wins!)
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Shannon started on titus based on a side conspiracy theory from kyoukyo which kyoukyo himself didn't believe in??In post 1539, shannon wrote:
Now this ... this is interesting.In post 1531, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Crazy theory I'm nurturing: Impoetic/Titus scum team. The main reason I am TRing both of them is a combination of the conversation they had with each other and relying on Transcend's gut reads. Problem is, day talk is on and that whole conversation could have been rehearsed in the scum PT. Rabbit judged Impoetic as town for how fast she responded, saying that if she was scum it would be really hard to fake those responses so fast. Also note that neither of them would vote for rb yesterday iirc (can't check on mobile atm)
It's also interesting that Titus is being deliberately obtuse, by pretending not to know that D7 was talking to her in 1534.
We can always come back to LUV if we need to, but I think we should push this for info. It's so out there it just might be true.
VOTE: Titus-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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VOTE: shannon
From what I've read I actually think shannon is the way to go.
Looking back I find her d1 stance very strange where she scumreads transcend and takes issue with the rb wagon but doesn't do much beyond throw shade until pressured into it. She gave weird caveats for not following through on her transcend scumread which she at the end was because she picked up the JK crumbs, but I feel as town you a) either move on to someone else then or b) push them anyways (i.e. if you scumread enough them it doesn't matter) if they're your only scumread; I don't understand the weird sort of limbo in which you have one that you have a reason not to touch and don't do anything else. On top of that I don't feel as though she's actually scumhunted this game (read votes on impo, transcend, especially titus) and (tonal, I know) I get an overly self-conscious feeling from her posts.
Going to go into the specifics and start pulling up the quotes.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Gonna cover every push by shannon so far (impoetic, transcend, titus, now gerry) and why the read progression doesn't make sense to me.
FirstImpoeticin 394Uhhh yeah this read to me like someone is making a town read based on scum knowledge, and then trying to cover their ass.This is a hop onto the impoetic wagon putting it l-2, the context being impoetic called someone a townie and explained it as everyone is statistically more likely town than not.
Shannon's vote here is not terrible for the situation (the impoetic slip does look awkward) but not a statement that necessarily required much time or thought; we see the judgment but shannon doesn't go into detail or show she's thinking critically about the game rather than taking an easy way on the wagon. So far this read isn't a problem but follow the progression through.
Note: in retrospect the slip by impoetic, her accidentally referring/assuming rb as a townie actually reads town given the flip, it seems unlikely mafia would accidentally refer to their partner that way
404 reads kind of bullshit as a response to impoetic's defending of herself. The issue shannon has that "Having scum reads on townies is sub-optimal for town." and of wifom doesn't seem like actually trying to understand impoetics point of view but moreso just make her look bad for defending herself on the grounds it's not "optimal play" which is eeh.
How you come away from votes is important too (the tail end of read progression) and a lot of people don't look at that part. It's the later unvote; fluffyrabbit unvoted impoetic for the tone of her defense and asked shannon to do so as well. 414 Shannon agrees and said she sort of buys it but doesn't feel comfortable going all the way, and the subsequent unvote next day is without comment and when she was the last one left on that wagon.
2 things here, first something I love to look at is what I call reads-momentum. The more self-conscious scum tend to have 'heavy' reads in terms of momentum because they don't feel right quickly turning and want to look consistent, whereas town is more variable i.e. 399 fluffly (who looks town) feels better from the defense right away. On top of appearance, making a fast retraction of a read puts you in a position where you have to have a new read or direction to go to, which for scum is more of a hassle given they like to be on one thing at any given time. This doesn't apply to every scenario and is pretty weak as a tell tbh but I could see that being the case here. Second is positioning; shannon came to put the wagon at l-2 but holds off on judgement or committing until everyone leaves it for the unvote. Because she doesn't really follow-up the read it's indistinguishable as to her genuinely changing her mind or if she was waiting to see which way the wind blew; that if people stayed on the wagon she would've as well, but the wagon's complete collapse didn't give a choice. Although this is more suggestive than anything hard-and-fast.
Follow this read through and she has impoetic as town until d2 where after kyoukyo's titus-impoetic theory she votes on 1557
A vote because impoetic isn't voting as she's lurking at the time. Again the concept of the vote isn't terrible, but when she had impoetic as lock for town d1 the worry on her specifically vs any other lurker (my slot for example) doesn't particularly follow. Finally impoetic doesn't show in her 1593 "want to lynch" pool and she then move votes again but I don't understand any of the progression regarding this. Impoetic doesn't post anything in between that vote and the pool and the next vote-change.I am also wondering why Impoetic has never been shown as voting, in any of the vote counts. Care to explain that one please? I can see a vote on RB on 156 (called a joke), and a skim reveals no other votes.
Overall given neither time she backed off she said anything substantive, and because her townread from the first time randomly disappeared I don't think it's a genuine read as opposed to voting for the sake of voting.
TranscendI'll go into later but I can summarize; she scumread transcend but didn't pressured him one bit until the end of the day or asked any questions. Transcend himself asked shannon why she didn't do anything about her only scumread or vote him (817) to get more information but she didn't on the experience and apparently role-crumb basis. Beyond "bad vibes" and a problem with transcend's style changing there's no critical thought until her vote post 911 which finally gives a theory.
Titusstarts in 1539. Based on kyoukyos theory in 1531 shannon votes titus for being obtuse and "for info". Nothing wrong with pressure though this still isn't scumhunting, but follow this read through:
she unvotes titus inexplicably to go back to impoetic (1557) and in 1593 commentsD7 is probably my strongest town read and he wants Titus. LUV has supposedly cleared me, and he wants Titus. SSBM made that interesting point yesterday about the Impoetic/Rabbit(Titus) interactions. I think that's where today has got to go.
Which is essentially saying titus is good because other people say so and sheeping.
Finally 1611 we have the revote to l-2.
Now you have to go back and look at this as a whole to see why this is a problem.In post 1611, shannon wrote:I'm going to go ahead and put Titus at L-2. I really want some proper responses from that slot and not just obtuse posts questioning minor points or pretending not to understand things.
VOTE: TitusL-2
Shannon originally wanted titus pushed for info but unvotes fast without asking anything. Then with the appeal that other people want titus so it's good she revotes because she wants proper responses from the slot.
Shannon herself never actually asked titus any questions. She didn't go into detail as to what info she wants; i.e. pressuring her. She votes her on the nebulous "more info" to sort of sheep, but doesn't have specifics she's interested in... what does shannon want here? Titus at this point has given reads, several directions where she wants to push and somewhat self-consistent VCA even if you hate it. What you do next if you're interested is pick it apart and go into why it's not good and your personal thinking as to why it's scummy. If shannon were interested I think she'd engage titus and ask about each of these but I don't think she genuinely was.
Titus then claims and shannon unvotes without much comment (1646), and asks for more info on the neighbour claims (1713) along with a brief summary as to why titus is being wagoned, though moreso facts than much of shannon's stance or opinion. Before in 1794 finally saying she should be lynched if she's still alive tomorrow...
I don't see critical analysis beyond setup stuff or actual scumhunting at any point here, since then just role and future speculation comments via titus/luv.
What I also don't get too is why shannon lost her townread on the slot here either. If you remember fluffyrabbit day 1 was actually shannon's strongest expressed townread in the game which shannon made a huge deal out of, and shannon made a post recognising that titus replaced her so there is no benefit of the doubt. Unless she is the type of player to completely throw out a read after replacement this townread backtrack looks just like the impoetic one.
Finally there's thegerryoatvote which is naked but shannon does talk about him earlier, as to why his wagon didn't go anywhere (1575). The thing is the gist of shannon's theory there isn't a case for gerryoat scum, it's an explanation as to why there was no strong counterwagon to rb, and the reasoning was because gerryoat was that counter, scum where already on him and that's why it didn't take off, i.e. gerryoat town. It's not a case for gerryoat scum. 1593 that becomes a bad thing though for gerry (???) and especially it's weird because shannon herself opposed the rb wagon but didn't go onto gerryoat, so I feel like she herself having a problem with that is odd given she even seems partially responsible.
Kyoukyo has his own case and theories regarding association shannon like-sort-of agrees with in 1793 but I highly doubt shannon has any of those same thought processes (uhhhhh) rather than just agreeing for the sake of voting. I might be missing something about this particular read given it's recency though.
Basically I don't see shannon think in-depth about the game for any read or show critical thinking, and when she does explain things I see inconsistencies and have a lot of trouble trying to understand her point of view. She appears to join wagons based on if they're already gaining traction (except for transcend, where people expliclty asked why she and non-voters in general weren't voting) rather than take any independent action, and doesn't put much effort questioning or engaging her scumreads (transcend, titus). Finally when a previous townread of her becomes a potential wagon that townread isn't mentioned again and seem to sort of disappear.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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WRT titus/LUV I townread titus based on fluffrabbit's play though tbh you shouldn't even consider lynching someone who claims to have a a gunsmith/cop shot.
I'm not sure on LUV but I don't see the harm in giving both a night to potentially use actions given he claims to have 1 shot left anyways.
1-shot tracker didn't fit with universal backup and would imply a scum in the pair (probably lil), 2 shot follower could work. Although he could've changed it to match the UB 2-shot follower sounds specific and creative vs just claiming to have full shots, which suggests it's real whether town or scum.
@modwould follower would detect BP activation by JOAT?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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If every read required looking into the claim and speculation than there would be no concept of scumhunting until every person claimed.In post 1907, shannon wrote:This is the thing: I can't have reads independently theories on what's happening with the claims. And I don't think any of you have independent reads, either.
Obviously it ties into a read and you don't straight up ignore it but it doesn't all out replace it and you look at both together... Anyone can make judgements like "I scumread them but the claim is really believable" or more rarely "they were okay but I don't really buy the claim" but I see you talk almost exclusively about the mechanical aspects and not give other reasoning or backing. I need to see more transparency as to the why and the thought processes going on if you have them.
See here you don't go into enough detail. You have a pool that you want other people to look at but you don't do anything yourself to further this; if you know what the right direction is why don't you look into yourself? And you end up compromising soon after too.In post 1963, shannon wrote:And really, are people going to wait for me to flip town before they look starting further than Titus and Uzi?
I take issue believing you genuinely want what you say you do when you don't do much more about it than complaining.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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So this is PoE then?In post 1918, shannon wrote:
Don't be melodramatic.
I think you and LUV are both town. D7 town. SSBM town. Impoetic town. (The last two are my weakest two reads)
Scum within Gerry, Drone, TTTT, Rask.
Do you have a preference specifically?
From your gerryoat vote I'd assume you wanted gerryoat the most, but I have my own questions regarding that in my case if you could answer them.
All in all he's probably town, being the first one to call out LUV for legitimate reasons and he was pretty clearly the counterwagon to rb d1 (which is pretty rarely scum).
I've played with him before (... that fucking pinger lynch ) and nothing's really standing out.
Why do you prefer gerry over drone?
Can you explain in your own words what you agree with and disagree with?In post 1963, shannon wrote:Noticed thing #3: Yeah, the wagons on gerry and iron (now rask) should be looked upon. I never understood people scumreading drone, but I do more now, kind of, not really.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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I'm not sure on drone.
He's been consistent with his interest in my slot so I actually like that he followed that through to me initially, but I don't know if the turn away on that is realistic. We've played before but not THAT much so I'm not sure if the "oh hey its rask this is rask is a nutshell I know" attitude is justified or buddyingish.
Had problems with shannon just earlier but didn't join the wagon and started criticizing it for composition with shannon as a null/need-more-info read.
pedit: I'm not done yet-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Do you remember where you got this from? Having the actual statistic would be useful here.In post 1700, Drone wrote:(I believed the rates for 1 scum in 2 neighbours is very very low)-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@TTTT
Lean town on imp. Kind of townslipped actually if you read my post on shannon where I talk about that wagon. I've probably already had more impact on the game than she's had throughout her existence but that isn't even a bad thing for someone who said they preferred to play as scum I think? Without much action there's only really tone, which although self-absorbed doesn't look overtly malicious... she should be pressured for more tomorrow but it's a bit late to start that today.
Sesq I'm reserving judgement on until I can question her push onto me.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@Shannon
1. Why did you vote titus for "more info" without actually asking her anything? What specifically did you want from her at that point?
2. What happened to your townread on titus's slot from fluffyrabbit regarding that push? I don't understand how you townread both titus's slot and impoetic d1 and then voted both of them early d2.
3. 1794 you suggest titus be lynched if she isn't killed, 1866 suggest both titus and luv report on the same person (which doesn't even prove align, just role) but you say you strong townread both of them. I don't see the logic behind pushing for either of these if you heavily townread both slots?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@LUV
I just don't get why you claimed your shannon result when neither of you were wagons at the time, I know I could've missed some of the context but I don't see how it would've accomplished pretty much anything.
Your reasoning in 1815 is you claimed so scum wouldn't target you because they'd think you useless but I still think you'd attract more attention that way than just... not doing anything?
I'd like to give you the benefit of the doubt for another result, considering you're still somewhat new but eehhh.
You can make an argument for claiming as 1-shot because you don't have any more results but yeah the logic doesn't really follow for 2...-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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@modIn post 1890, Raskolnikov wrote:@mod would a follower detect BP activation by JOAT?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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That makes sense regarding it being shannon, but I don't see how it'd justify claiming there though. It's not like people starting dogpiling either of them at the start of d2.In post 1998, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:@Rask - The context referred to in 1993:
LUV/shannon were supposed to be a vig shot or a cop target last night when rb flipped scum because they were teamtelling with him and each other early on and even later in the day as rb grew more suspicious.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Not really?
Fluffyrabbit was pretty obvtown and UB fake would probably be too creative. I think what you do with VCA is bad on principle but that's not really a fight worth fighting if your reads are that similar to mine.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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???In post 2001, Sesq wrote:
I was trying too hard to suppress my badtown radar.In post 1997, Raskolnikov wrote:Sesq do you have any issue with my push beyond who I replaced?
You initially said you thought it was a good case so I'm interested in hearing what changed.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=53&t=68482
Found this game as a goldmine of sorts, shannon titus and LUV are all in it.
Shannon has actual reads here as town and is a lot more involved. She's constantly asking questions here and gives detailed reads on most people without the bizarre claim or role focus I get here.
Titus as town seems stylistically similar with the same sort of conviction, though that game she ended up tunneling mason and even when the other mason backed it up she thought it was a lie.
Luv is harder to judge but never seems to do anything to draw attention to himself, which in this case the claims definitely would. It's still weird but I'd give him a night anyways to hedge bets, especially as I'm not sure both lil and shannon scum make sense given that result (would be pretty brave, anyways).
My best bet atm is shannon-drone, drone scumread shannon for a while right until the wagon happened but quickly changed when she got voted up. Which I don't get because her answers weren't really satisfying.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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So I just realized, shannon wagoned titus originally for being obtuse and not explaining much.
In this game shannon PLAYED with town titus and saw her act similarly and even vote mason for not believing the claim (the definition of obtuse). I don't know how she acted like she never seen it from titus before unless she forgot that entire game.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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...have you read all of my posts?In post 2006, Sesq wrote:Rask reads please other than shannon-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Shannon or drone, I literally just said this.In post 2077, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Talk a bit more about who would be scum if LUV flips town or scum @Rask/d7, I expect one of us will die tonight if Titus is scum. In that situation (town!LUV/scum!Titus) I think Gerry is the partner given Titus's D1 play around the rb and gerry wagons-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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If Luv is scum that means I'm probably wrong on shannon which I don't really want to think about tbh.
If that's the case it could still be drone though I'd also have to reconsider some of my reads. I still haven't looked super in-depth at every player yet but if I'm alive tomorrow I will.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Was going to wait until he answered my questions to voice this but I don't know what's going on with sesq either.
I don't understand his problem with my wagon and that read in general beyond the activity point and he hasn't responded so far. I can't say much of a read based on ironstove though I can understand a newer player's issue with his play.
I also think trying to push me after I come in with my massive case is kind of bold and calls a lot of attention to himself while also probably not going anywhere.
In general I find I'm rarely directly pushed by scum if there are still easier targets, rather they either hop on using a "paranoia" excuse or go the other way and try to buddy.-
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Was going to wait until he answered my questions to voice this but I don't know what's going on with sesq either.
I don't understand his problem with my wagon and that read in general beyond the activity point and he hasn't responded so far. I can't say much of a read based on ironstove though I can understand a newer player's issue with his play.
I also think trying to push me after I come in with my massive case is kind of bold and calls a lot of attention to himself while also probably not going anywhere.
In general I find I'm rarely directly pushed by scum if there are still easier targets, rather they either hop on using a "paranoia" excuse or go the other way and try to buddy.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Shannon luv and titus all 3 in this game and no one bothers looking it when I link it. These 3 have LITERALLY been the entire focus of d2.
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Waiting a day would've forced a kill in the group if titus is town (likely) and failing that there'd have been a result to look at as 2 people couldn't claim no-result.
Personally I even think waiting till massclaim and judging based on the setup power is super broken strat, people either have to be CC'd (easy choices) or end up confirmed, idk why no one ever does that though.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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So overall I'm not sure that JOAT + 2-s follower is enough investigation tools.
1 jailkeep, 1 gunsmith and 2 follows altogether is maybe 1 cop's worth of investigation power.
UB isn't really invest but I'd still count it towards that from the longer lifespan it'd give either.
Then there's either strongman or RB confirmed via n1, assuming transcend BP'd (which the JK claim 100% suggests) which is scum power on the other side.
Unless there's an invest CC I wouldn't even consider titus lynch here.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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That said it's more likely titus was roleblocked than targeted ascetic.
Ascetic COULD exist and fits JK (not unreasonable) but follower flip suggests against it. Makes follower almost a non-factor and titus being roleblocked as claimed pr feels more likely than out of all targets she hit an ascetic.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Here's what I don't get, shannon how are you against titus saying her target is scum based on a no-result without knowing who the target is?
I can see people's problems with just the attitude, who HAVEN'T seen town-titus before but you remembering that from your game we literally went over yesterday and you admitted it was the same.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Masons claimed together and titus pushed that it was a townie fakeclaiming mason with scum to protect him.In post 2222, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:It's 84 pages long and I'm in a lot of games already, is there something specific you're trying to show me?
I was also part of a hydra in a game (Akame ga Kill mafia) a few months ago and titus pretty much deathtunneled that slot with a very strong conviction. Don't know her scum game but the sort of almost-ridiculous stubbornness you take issue with is definitely stylistic.
Enough so that that shannon somehow forgetting and acting like it's new from her here is pretty weird.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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In post 2168, Drone wrote:There's one problem Titus.
How could I fuck up your target or action while it's day 3? Assuming I'm scam according to your theory.
Heck, you have more holes in your posts than a Swiss cheese!
It's very possible Titus is our scum JOAT btw, conveniently claiming ub after Transcend's death.
I'm also willing to lynch Shanna, if you guys prefer her over Titus because of Drealm flipping town.
VOTE: Titus
I received Titus' target. Will abide to her request.
What's your read on titus vs shannon specifically?In post 2171, Drone wrote:
Wow.In post 2157, shannon wrote:Based on this, I reckon we have a Rask + Drone team. They are taking turns to be on the most popular wagon, but both needed to join the LUV one to get the PR lynch through.
I would be very, very interested to hear who Titus targeted last night.
Yes.
When Raskolnikov replaced Ironstove, we still kept the original plan.
Oh dear.
VOTE: Shannon
You aren't even the center of attention, how can you afford that shading?
You are better of off the radar, but... You have the urge to prove innocence, cause you're not... Right?
Given they've pretty much hard 1v1'd so much of yesterday I'd be uncomfortable simultaneously scumreading both sides here.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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This doesn't look scum-on-scum imo. Impoetic's answer here is what got her wagoned a bit later, but assuming or slipping someone as town when they're scum doesn't make any sense.In post 211, Impoetic wrote:
you're most likely town because statistically most people are town in the game, and the argument against me is assuming you're town so there's no point in considering the other scenarioIn post 207, rb wrote:
How do u know im townie though?Impoetic wrote:It's not like I malignantly quickhammered. I joke-voted. I'm telling you there isn't scum motivation in joke-voting, and it's only bad for town because the culprit is town in the first place; if I were mafia, I'd be giving town the rope with which to hang me for... what? A tiny chance to get one townie lynched early in d1... which would require two townies messing up and doing the same thing you're saying i'm scum for?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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It's not a hard clear and the slot did legitimately lurk through most of the game non-nonchalant, but that's more anti-town than necessarily malicious... I guess the argument could be that impoetic lost motivation/lurked BECAUSE of d1 rb lynch but historically lynches like this are coinflips.
I would at least see the replacement if possible.-
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The case atm from titus is impoetic is scum because titus got no result on her and shannon started attacking titus (before titus revealed). Otherwise titus herself said she'd consider roleblock as the explanation about as likely if not more.
But it is possible titus was roleblocked and shannon took it as opportunity without the explicit target being relevant.
Consider the following:why is titus alive?
If you leave a claimed PR alive you're intending to mislynch them or at least have it as an option. And you follow up on this either directly attacking them or otherwise casting shade.
The pool of people that makes is Shannon, TTTT, ssbm_kyouko and partially drone.
Of all of these shannon's stance on titus hasn't really made sense (d2 wagon) whereas I think I can follow the progression of kyouko and sort of TTTT. Drone did vote titus but his logic was entirely on other things; if you're going to leave someone alive to take issue with you don't attack them for entirely different reasons or even back off in under 3 hours (2168), so I don't think he really qualifies.
Shannon didn't vote titus (shannon's style in general seems to be coming in at the end with the "compromise" vote rather than leading anything though) but cast a ton of shade and focused on the theory and the places that make sense for this. Read 2309. Shannon throughout isn't having an independent drive or views but focuses on public opinion, what "everyone" thinks is a good idea and I believe trying to bring our focus to specific areas where it shouldn't be.
Titus's theory mostly hinges on shannon scum anyways but I think titus being roleblocked and having been a pre-planned target is more likely here.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Follow along shannon here
D2 - We should wagon titus for information. Titus is scummy for acting the same way I saw her play before and also all this claim and theory stuff but nvm she's okay (it's not going anywhere, fuck it).
D3 - It's complicated and there's a bunch of things you could interpret from this, anything is possible, but it's seems more likely titus is scum here and/or fakeclaiming. Now I personally have no idea, I'm not sure what to make of all this, I'm just putting it out there that we should look at this very closely. Titus is wrong or lying here.
The read doesn't work start to finish, put yourself in the point of view... first you thinks she's scummy for being obtuse but also just wants a wagon for funsies. Then after she literally was l-1 and had to claim, mmm I'm not sure about these role mechanics let's get all the details here, entirely new theory and speculation approach which kind of throws out what shannon said before, and vague theoretical analysis as opposed to play judgement, finally ending on a gut townread.
Now d3 that's gone and she goes heavily into why titus is lying and more likely scum than not although not going as far as to act on it.
As an overall read there's no consistent basis as to why shannon scumreads titus or talks about her in general, it shifts from one thing to another based on the situation but the result is generally just casting shade. There's not really momentum there or deeper reasoning behind it, even though the information itself and theories are very detailed and complex there isn't one solid continuous thread in it. Even earlier too when she discarded her fluffyrabbit strongest d1 townread when titus subbed in and never spoke of it, which is why that sequence was interesting to me too. There's no common line of thought from start to finish, things earlier just sort of disappear and fade away, never mentioned again, to be replaced by other new things but overall her views stay roughly the same.
I think shannon wasn't originally intending to continue to scumread titus into today (ended yesterday with a gut townread onto her), but on deciding not to kill her she revived her read to throw some shade onto her and possibly get that lynch. It makes sense as to why the read is so disjointed and doesn't follow from start to finish, from the original push to that townread to today.
Compare ssbm_kyouko. Kyouko seemed to LEGITIMATELY want to push titus for information based on his titus-impoetic theory, and when I asked more he gave reasoning regarding titus's d1 play around rb and her behaviour in general. Solid reasoning, also given kyouko isn't familiar with titus stylistically (unlike shannon) that's a legitimate view for kyouko. He followed up on that theory/associations later too without being prompted which shows he is genuinely thinking about it. Switch to LUV based on luv's claim, then today he does start on titus and does talk about the role, but he also goes back and references d1 and his train of thought before. It's consistent, it follows, and though he speculates mechanics and theorycrafts it isn't 100% of what he does. There's backbone and a basis behind it if you look at it.
Compare to TTTT. TTTT didn't say anything about scumreading titus until today and did vote her, but TTTT did not try to make titus look bad in any way. You could argue "this doesn't look right" might be casting shade but it's a stretch there. After talking with titus a bit and hearing the target of impoetic he seems okay with it, but at no point do I really see him try to "make her look bad" or influence public opinion against her despite his vote there. He's a little reserved and I don't know much about him, but I don't see his stance as malicious.
Drone as I mentioned voted titus for all of 3 hours before moving to shannon and the titus vote was on logic unrelated to her claim or being alive so it doesn't really fit the motivation either. I don't townread drone but even then that stance wouldn't make sense as the sole scum to take advantage, it's not nearly enough. Drone I've thought about as a shannon partner given his scumread turned into a townread when the wagon on her took off but shannon could just as easily be with any of the many lurker slots too and I scumread her a lot more.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Shannon continued, read progression specifically
D2 -> D3 details
The d2 original wagon she said was partially forinformation(stuff like WAGON analysis etc) and partially for her behaviour. The former is we know as a FACT is not true given she never mentioned it again or went into detail as to what she got from it; when I asked she gave 2020 but she said nothing about any one of those things she describes there EVER, and she couldn't answer specifically what she learned. She said "this was my thought process here" when it straight up wasn't by any observation, and you can look at her ISO and see this. The latter falls apart when I look at it too if you actually read the meta I linked, and even shannon agrees in 2107 it wasn't anything unusual for what she remembers. So she forgot that I guess when she took issue with it earlier? So that doesn't go anywhere either.
Everything here kind of falls apart when I give it the slightest scrutiny but no one cares to look beyond the surface.
Then after that initial part where titus claimed shannon didn't say much beyond getting a ton of info about the role mechanics, trying to direct titus's night actions, and suggesting she should be lynched if still alive next day. But not really scumreading her and then ending the day on a gut townread.
Move onto d3:
So this is the first post. Don't actually think this makes sense if shannon's scum with impoetic ascetic; in that case this would be bussing which she later hard-backtracked on?In post 2140, shannon wrote:Prima facie I'd say that we should ask for a claim from whoever Titus' target was, and then discuss whether it's plausible and lynch the hell out of it if not. If the target flips town with no modifier that would suggest a no result, then Titus is a no-brainer lynch the next day.
I'm clearly out of the loop here, can anyone explain?
This DOES make sense if titus was roleblocked and shannon is okay with lynch said target. This is before titus revealed target. Shannon could intentionally omit the roleblock possibility if a town is framed in this manner.
Titus then votes shannon for the omission and shannon kicks into gear here. She goes into possibilities, then goes into VCA and brings up me+drone team, then into 2258 taking issue with titus's logic around ascetic (issues shannon would still easily see if scum, if partner is RB rather than ascetic, although this post is actually okay). She works hard here when under threat and I think one of her first priorities was to figure out if the target is/isn't her.
THEN impoetic is revealed, shannon says regarding titus 2309 (I have no idea which way it goes) and is sort of whatever on impoetic. I don't have time to re-read impoetic (2300), treat my vote as if it's on her (2316). Her issues with the ascetic logic and titus? Eh whatever after hearing it's impoetic. I would NOT go along with a lynch lead by my SCUMREAD especially when I just spent all that time going over why the logic is completely flawed and dodgy fmpov. What the fuck?
Impoetic feels like LUV where no-one gives a fuck and if he's town nothing comes of it and probably no one ever talks about it again (except that had some justification because his role claim retraction).-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Her latest turn especially though WTF
1. scumread someone
2. their logic is total bullshit
3. eh why not, consider my vote there too. haven't re-read them btw so this is based on that logic I just pointed out how ridiculous it was-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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I see four points being made against herIn post 2375, ssbm_Kyouko wrote:Rask, have you looked back at the D1 Impoetic wagon or read my case on her? Have a comment on any of that, you're really tunneling shannon as it is. Not that it's not compelling I just think scum!shannon can't avoid being lynched in 5-way and Impoetic is a big fat question mark that we should get rid of sooner rather than later
a) overdefensive or reactive, self-conscious play.
b) d1 she assumed rb was town which qualifies as a "only scum know town" slip. Except I'd count this the opposite way to a townslip given rb scumflip; it doesn't make any sense why scum would accidentally refer to another scum as town, just logically I don't think that would happen unless she forgot rb was her partner or something like that.
c) titus's no result
d) lurking
I disagree with you on B being a bad thing, C is incredibly weak, D is more anti-town/policy than necessarily a tell and isn't really specific to impoetic. I only agree on A here but even that I'm not sure how much of is stylistic. If it's just that then shannon's been just as self-conscious in her play, but also has all the weirdness I pointed out and inconsistencies especially with her titus pushes.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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Okay, so did it? What's your analysis here?In post 2374, shannon wrote:There's a reason I didn't actually vote, let's put it that way. I wanted to see whether my expressed intention to vote would derail the wagon, given that lots of folks have a scum read on me.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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You said similar regarding your titus push d2 for information
but I still can't find any analysis of any of this in your ISO. Both of these retroactively you've said was to get all this cool data to look at and use, and that would be OKAY, if there was any evidence ever you used it and did what you said you did.In post 2020, shannon wrote:1) It wasn't to get more info from Titus, it was to get more info about what people thought of her and who was going to add pressure, who was going to defend, who was going to react etc.
But there's nothing, no mention of these things outside of answer here. It's really hard to believe you did both of these intentionally for information to analyse when you never do either, as opposed to just wanting both wagons to go through and retconing your reasoning for being in favour.
What you're basically describing in both of these is a reaction test. You're essentially saying you're reaction testing with both of these but not giving the results of the reaction tests. I believe if you actually were doing these for information that you'd use you WOULD use it and there'd be at least something in your ISO reflecting that, instead of never mentioning it in any of your game analysis or reads as a substantial point. Even just saying "I've tried to reaction test but I've gotten nothing useful or mixed results from it" would show it was at least in your mind and make it plausible but you never say anything about this except when I specifically asked for explanation behind your actions and and even then you don't really answer.-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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In an actual reaction test someone does something and expects one of several outcomes to follow. On whatever result comes you can say something about it, usually something substantial but sometimes not if it's an unexpected result. There's the test itself, and the follow-up.
The test has to be unexpected and to some extent dramatic (as not to be ignored)... Your push on titus for information is hard to buy as an intentional test when you literally said it was for information and not a real vote. Today your support of the impoetic lynch "reason", to see what would happen regarding the wagon, although not as bad, is very subtle and soft/weak for something expected to elicit reaction. An actual vote or failing that some stronger words would get some reaction but your post was just weak and literally everyone other than me just ignored it.
Still want to see the follow up too. What have you learned?-
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Raskolnikov Jack of All Trades
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