Mini 1620 — The Mod is Using Comic Sans — GG

[Egg]

Hi. I have about an hour and this is my only game. Should be able to read it all now. If not, the wait shouldn't be long.

[Egg]

Page 1:
-Egogirl's first post seems pointless. I'd probably vote it Page 1, but I don't believe that to be too telling of a post. I like Lissa's callout of it though.
-Thedude asking for help reads genuine. I feel like as scum he'd have asked his buddies already and would come in more confident and less lost. Even if he is an alt, not a true newb, I'd expect the same tells to be mimicked. Exception is if he is scum with buddies who were inactive pregame.
-Beck, did the first josh vote influence your decision to vote josh at all?
-Flubber, was your Emo vote serious?
-Thesp, I used to like being scum but I've been enjoying town games a little more lately. And I'm a better liar online than IRL, but I try to stay as honest as possible as scum in games.
-I like Beck's questioning Thesp about his questions. I don't necessarily agree that Thesp is intentionally distracting anything, especially considering his history of using questions. However, I agree that they aren't likely to help much. So townpoints for Beck and null on Thesp.

Page 2:
-lol Josh had too much time on his hands pregame. Maybe no QT to post in? (I'm actually slightly more serious than you think here)
-Lando, why claim town? Would you not do the same as scum?
-Ew. Emo doesn't know if she has the time to like being scum in this game yet. Seems way too blatant to be a slip, but what the hell else could that mean?
-TheDude, why did you "bite" on Josh's question about voting Thesp for not voting? Do you think for yourself at all? Also, you seem to have caught the same point I made in the bullet point above this. Why do you seem afraid to call it out?
-did I mention how town Lissa is?

Page 3:
-Call this weak or a stretch or whatever, but it stood out to me. Emo's "oops" drunk post looks bad. Maybe it's just me, but I like drunkposting as town because I feel like it makes me more transparent. Transparent isn't good as scum. Weak, I know. But it's there and Emo doesn't look so great from the first two pages.
-Josh's take on Thesp is reasonable. Town points.
-Beck wagon is dumb. TheDude's vote looks kinda bad. Flubber looks like he is lolreactioning. Thesp's vote looks OMGUSy and shitty.
-Massive looks like he's trying to give politically correct answers to Thesp's questions. Like he's crafting his answers to be what he thinks Thesp wants to hear rather than genuinely answering them.
-Hmm. I like Beck saying the votes on him don't bother him. However, I don't like him calling those votes policy. Beck, do you actually believe that the people voting you are doing it out of policy rather than scum reading you? Do you think anyone on your wagon is opportunistic scum trying to capitalize on the momentum? Your post 72 is a very good point against Thesp though.
-Emo. Very last post on Page 3. How are you not doing exactly what you are complaining about?

Page 4:
Phij's vote is ridiculously opportunistic and shitty. I think Flubber noticed this as well.

Page 5:
-Yeah, phij's "case" feels fake. And he ignored Llama's vote on him.
-Flubber, you called phij lynch bait. Do you think he is town? If so, why?
-Thesp, why is Phij town?
-I won't be voting Beck today.

And that's as far as I can get right now. Should have a little more time later this afternoon. So far, I like Phij, emo, and massive for scum. I like Lissa, Beck, TheDude, and maybe Flubber for town. Everyone else, I'm not reading strongly yet.

[Egg]

Continuing.

Page 6:
-I like that TheDude is taking stronger stances (see the Lissa vote) although I don't agree that Lissa's Beck read looks scummy. Giving reasons why someone could be town or scum doesn't seem wishy washy to me. It shows logic. It's kind of a "here's how this looks, here's the other side of it, and after comparing the two here's my conclusion". In a game like mafia where answers don't come until later with flips, I don't mind a delay in a conclusion especially on Page 6.
-after typing the above, I read Lissa's response and "trying to sort" Beck follows exactly what I was thinking. It's a genuine scumhunting attempt by Lissa.
-phij, why is TheDude scummy? Because he voted you?

Page 7:
-I like Josh's questioning of TheDude. I actually noticed some of the same stuff. Not sure what to make of TheDude trying to deflect to Emo. To be honest, TheDude is the player I'm the most back and forth on. I keep wanting to think he's town and then I read a post of his that feels off.
-wowwww. If Emo is scum, and I think she is, I'm probably wrong about phij. That policy vote is terrible. It reeks. Reeks like a 3 month old grilled cheese sandwich that's been sitting in a hot car and forgotten.
-Emo, what do you mean when you say you are going to "flow freely into Day 2"?

Page 8:
-Absolutely hate massive's misrep of TheDude's pressure vote on Luca.
-I feel like Flubber is trying to be the voice of reason in this game. Not sure what to make of that yet.

Page 9:
-

flubber, why such a push on site meta rather than accuracy?

<-Dammit, Llama beat me to this
-I agreed with flubber that emo seemed to think phij is town. The vote read as giving up on the day and assuming power roles would do all of the work tonight. Now, emo claims to have a null to scum read on phij. I don't like the backtrack.
-

phij, what is your read on the players voting you?

Dammit Josh. People keep beating me to my points.
-Massive. Yes to both questions.

Vote Emogirl

Preview edit:
Thesp, fair. Just wanted to make sure you weren't falling into the trap of assuming he is town because you read him as a VI and don't like 1-2 players' reasons for voting if you are town or hiding behind that if you are scum. Your answer satisfies me though.

[Egg]

Thesp, I think I know why you think you see a connection between Beck and myself. I'm sure it will become clear later. Now just isn't the time to discuss it (and no, I'm not softclaiming masons).

[Egg]

Luca, if you had to pick right now, what would your read be on Beck and Thesp? You seem to be talking about their debate without really taking a side.

I've already explained it actually. The questions serve no purpose to the game of mafia. They don't help find scum and contrary to what thesp believes, they don't help find town. Making everyone answer them also slows the game down while waiting for everyone to make a useless post providing answers to questions that won't help find scum

But he does it as town too...

Preview edit:
Saying both alignments are good and you don't know if you are good at lying, but admit it's nice to proof read are definitely politically correct answers. You don't have to commit to one alignment or the other. And, I dunno, the second part sounds like you didn't want to act like you don't lie and felt like you needed to add the second part. Like I said, it has a certain crafted nature to it. Simply not answering runs the risk of being called out. And I didn't call out other people's answers because I didn't see issues with them.

Preview edit again:
I believe my last paragraph answers why not avoid the question. What is your issue with Josh's answer? I felt like he was being pretty genuine and transparent.

The Luca vote from TheDude was definitely not policy. Maybe we have different views on policy, but here's how I see it:
Policy = "Luca just lurks all the time and won't help if town. Let's lynch him day 1 because he is either scum or a burden as town"
TheDude's actual stance = "wait a minute. Luca is posting elsewhere on the site, but avoiding this game. I think he is scum"

See the difference?

[Egg]

Aparently you do this as both town and scum though so i'll just scratch my head on this one.

IMO he deserves suspicion cast on him

The sharp contrast here is poignant.

Even TheS admits it's not really effective.

No, actually, I didn't and don't. I think asking questions of people to get them engaged is miles better than arbitrary votes. Look, right now

because of the questions I've asked

, we're past the Arbitrary Voting Stage. My questions don't slow things down (because it's trivially easy to answer them and move on), and they give people a reason to post.

VOTE: Beck

Your reactions are weird to me in a way I'm not comfortable with.

What reactions did you mean here if not Beck's refusal to answer?

[Egg]

Thesp, fair. I see where you are coming from. I don't agree, but I follow your logic.

Lissa, you said you like my points against both emo and phij. Do you agree that with Emo's vote on phij for "policy", the are unlikely to be scum together? I was about to as which you think is more likely to be scum, but I noticed you voted Emo so that answers that.

TheDude, I massively misread your post about looking for help then. Too bad. That was part of my town read on you. *sigh*. And are you saying that your Thesp vote was a reaction test?

Luca, you didn't answer the question. Surely, you are leaning one way or the other on Thesp and Beck. I asked because I want to see which side you'd take if you had to pick one. I still can't tell. Let's say the Mod gives you a daykill that you have to use before your next post and in the next 5 minutes and it has to be on Thesp or Beck. Compulsive shot so you have to use it. Who do you shoot?

Preview edit:
Hmm. I misread Emo I think.

Unvote, Vote Phij

[Egg]

No, that's actually kind of what I was looking for.

[Egg]

Reasons phij is scum:
-opportunistic vote on Beck that shows no logical progression

Another thing I see a lack of mentioning beck is now at l-1 and beck he is going do this every game now stop complaining about it!

Oh opps lol I have great math so thenVOTE: Vote:beckNow it's l-2 :p beck your like trying really hard to make thesp look like scum and it's really making you lean toward scum

^he's just counting votes from a lynch, not trying to determine Beck's alignment. Hardly even gives a reason why Beck is scum. And when he tries to bolster his "case", here's the best we get:

I still don't trust beck look at how scummy his posts are

-when asked about the above, he gives us feigned confidence on weak points:

So first he goes after thesp for asking a question (red flag), then he goes after thesp for wasting time with the question which it really isn't (another red flag) it's just the way he's attacking thesp that gets red flags all around. And also thesp is a vetran so a good amount of beck agurments don't make sense.

He is absolutely refusing to entertain the idea that he could be wrong. How can you be that sure on that weak of a case unless you have your mind set this is where your vote is sticking? Basically, I don't think he genuinely believes Beck to be scum.
-his reaction to pressure:

If you take a look at that post again you will see me explaining some of my red flags and thesps is a vetran he does this every single game and beck is complaining about it didn't you see us go after him for it. (Beck/thedudesabides mafia together?)

Blatant OMGUS+

 Also i highly suspect there's scum on this train so if I do get hammered take a good look at this train for tomorrow.

^giving up and accepting a lynch rather than giving a last effort on finding scum or helping town in some way or another. Basically, for scum, being lynched is the end of your game. As town, you can still give some insight before you go and try to guide town a little better than "hey guys its all scum lynching me". Usually you see some kind of final reads list or something.
-self preservation:

Also I'll change my vote to Luca if we get low on time

[Egg]

Your attitude appears anti-town.

Anti town or scum?

[Egg]

Luca, what do you think of my points against phij

[Egg]

Luca. Emo. You guys are talking in circles, both wrong, and maybe even both town. Just stop.

I don't like Thesp's 314. Reason, gut. Maybe confirmation bias because I don't agree with any of it, but meh. I might come back to this later.

Massive, I don't care about how the answer was communicated. Josh seemed genuine and transparent. You seemed to craft an answer that you thought would look good. That is the difference.

Are you saying that, because you disagree about Luca posting elsewhere but now here being a good scum tell, that makes it policy? Does that mean Thesp can call my vote on phij policy, even though I posted a case, because he disagrees with the case?

And I'd say you being in the game actually drops the usage of the word "massively". I was going to use it earlier while talking to you and thought about how redundant it sounded. Can't remember if I actually changed it or not.

[Egg]

It's not worth noting every time you post.

You've both told each other why you are each wrong. I don't feel like repeating it.

I don't want to discuss my read on Emo right now. As for you, I don't have a strong read one way or the other.

[Egg]

I don't see Emo avoiding anything. I see you asking the same things, maybe phrased differently and I see her giving the same answers. Do I really have to go through 15-20 posts to show you that? I'll do it, but I don't think it accomplishes much

[Egg]

Luca vs Emo as I see it:
Post 274- Emo calls Phij a "great lynch"
275- Luca asks why Phij is a great lynch. Fair question. Asks what we learn if Phij flips town. Not sure why that's important.
277- Emo effectively defines a policy lynch in response to Luca. I don't like it, but I think Phij is scum and I can't see that being a bus. Emo just has a different mentality than most of us here on mafiascum. Maybe she plays on another site?
278-Luca says Emo's attitude is anti town. Not scummy, but anti town. At this point, we see a disagreement on theory, clearly. That theory is "Are policy lynches good for town?". If Luca can find recent examples of Emo arguing against a policy lynch in town or against policy lynches in MD, maybe Emo is scum. But I don't remember ever seeing scum lie about where they stand of theory.
281- Emo answers by saying she still sees Phij as a great lynch and doesn't think she is being anti town. Of course. What else was she going to say?
282- Luca says Emo's attitude is anti town. Again. Luca states he is against policy lynches. Again.
284 - Emo seems to think the discussion is over and shifts focus to Luca's question about her random vote. I don't have a problem with this. Like I said, it's going in circles already.
285- Luca states he is against policy lynches for Beck's benefit
286 -Emo reasserts her position on Phij. Not sure why.
287- Luca tells Emo he is against policy lynches. I have a hunch she already knew that
296-Emo explains her position on Phij and compares it to Llama's and my own.
297- Luca tells me that my case against Phij is fair, but he disagrees. Thinks Phij lynch is inevitable.
298 - Luca says anti town can come from either alignment and explains that he thinks Emo is scum. Not sure why when his case seems to be that she is being anti town, which he admits in this very post can come from town too
299-Emo basically says what I just said in regards to 298.
300- Luca tells Emo he is against policy lynches. Also makes a few minor points against Emo
301- Luca says he doesn't like Emo's policy vote (does anyone not realize this by now?) and calls out a fluff post.
302-Emo defends against the above. Adds that she wasn't ready to end the day just yet and that's why she didn't push a case.
303- Luca asks Emo to explain her defense further. Adds that a policy lynch isn't a great lynch (again)
304-Luca asks Emo why she is playing cautiously. He sees caution. I see waiting for replacements etc
305-Emo thinks she sees a contradiction in Luca's case. I don't see it.
307- Luca questions Emo for cautious play (again), states he is against a policy lynch on phij (again), says he thinks Emo is scum (again), and points out what he sees as a contradiction (it's not)
308 - Emo says she wants Phij lynched (again), likes the case on him, and wasn't trying to end the day with her vote (again)
309-Luca says Emo contradicted herself (again)
310- Emo expresses a feeling that she just can't win with Luca. I agree. He has his mind made up and refuses to entertain any possibility that he is wrong. He seems to think if he repeats himself enough times, he'll be right.
311-Luca says Emo contradicted herself (again), says he is against policy lynches (again), and calls out Emo's play as being cautious (again)
312- Emo answers the same questions again
313- Emo says she's done discussing it.

So. Luca. Are you talking in circles? Yes. It's the same posts phrased a little differently each time.
Are you wrong? I believe so. I don't think Emo is scum here.
Is Emo wrong? Yes. Policy lynches suck.
Are you town? Maybe.
Is Emo town? I think so.

Preview edit:
Massive. No. You are misunderstanding my point. It's not that your answer was well written or anything like that. It's that you didn't seem to be giving a genuine answer. We aren't going to agree on what a policy lynch is though. I don't think that voting for someone because you think they are scum can ever be defined as a policy lynch.

Luca, seeing policy lynch vs great lynch as a contradiction assumes the position of anti policy lynch, which Emo clearly isn't. So while you don't see a policy vote as being "great", it's entirely plausible that she does. It's all about perspective.

The above should answer everything else.

[Egg]

I don't think that voting for someone because you think they are scum can ever be defined as a policy lynch.

I guess we'll continue to agree to disagree. I can't see how someone can legitimately believe someone is scum for something that isn't happening (ie, posting in the game thread) or is occurring outside the game thread, so it'll just continue to seem like a lazy policy lynch to me.

So you think TheDude was lying about thinking Luca was scum then?

Luca, I didn't skim. I read every word of it. That's how I interpereted it. And would you really expect someone who supports a policy lynch to see policy lynches as a bad thing? That makes no sense. Not everyone shares your opinion. What are you trying to accomplish anyway? I didn't even say you are scum and you aren't going to convince me to vote Emo, especially with my preferred lynch at L-1.

[Egg]

I wouldn't expect anyone to think a policy lynch, half way through day 1, is 'great'. That is unheard of for me. 

How do you not see that this is a difference of opinion between you and Emo.

Look. This is like if you said Emo was a good lynch. Clearly, I disagree. Can I call you out for a contradiction because it's not a good lynch. It's like if I asked you: "wait, do you support an Emo lynch or a good one" and you say both and I vote you for a contradiction. That's effectively what you are doing.

[Egg]

So anyone who says they support a policy lynch is lying?

[Egg]

If I thought something was great, I'd probably support it..

It's going in circles because you aren't getting it.

[Egg]

Ok I give up

[Egg]

Massive, fair. If phij flips scum I can understand looking into TheDude. And yeah I've never heard that name called Ellitell before. I've heard the tell before, but not by that name. Was TheDude in the game where you saw that mentioned?

TheDude, where did you hear the term Ellitell?

[Egg]

Llama, why not answer them? Not every post I make is useful. Also, I kind of like answering questions.

Why is everyone looking specifically at Phij's posting style and expecting it to be different in his town games than it is in his scum games? Has everyone read my case? Does he do those things as town too?

[Egg]

I don't think it's useful. I also don't think it's harmful. Should be pretty easy to understand.

[Egg]

Let's just end the day

[Egg]

Eh. I know most of the site disagrees with me on that so I usually just roll with it so yeah we can wait. Just, it feels like that stalls the game, stalls wagons, and rushes bad lynches. Just my opinion.

[Egg]

I don't really see this train legitimate because people are just trying to jump and me and justify it like emo
And I have been defending myself... well when I was able to be here. But I know that I have a high chance of being lynched with us only having a few days left. But I will still try to defend myself even though at this point it could be considered pointless.

Giving us a read or two would have helped your cause. Basic town play is to find scum. You haven't even tried to do this like you did in your town games. That is why you are scum.

@Phijkchu_Magikarp:Who are the probable scum on your wagon and why, please?

Hopefully you have better luck getting an answer than I did

[Egg]

Beck: attempting to make town look like scum ex: me and 

Couldn't you accuse anyone on your wagon of this? Show us why Beck is guilty of this and not someone else.

I did give reads even in this post I'm giving some

You didn't give very many before being asked.

Meh, I was looking at my scenarios and realised my confbias: I suppose Thesp and Beck could both be scum turbobussing each other, but I don't think it likely.

I'd be shocked, but stranger things have happened.

[Egg]

Some people who play a more timid game think that VT is the safest claim because it's hard to fake a power role.

I can see your Thesp point if Phij is town.

[Egg]

The topic of discusion seems to be emogirl and her "poilicy vote". I think it's kind of stupid considering the fact that she explained herself to the point of exhaustion. Luca's tunneling and then disappearance from the conversation seems to be the most suspicious. So far it looks like Egg is the only one that's challenged him on it.

Yeah, I don't think I specifically said so, but I don't like the way Luca looks after that exchange.

I think Magikarp is way more likely to be scum than Flubbernugget.

That said, I still waver on the VT claim. Egg makes a good point about it being a conservative play and I'm also torn because of the newb-tells emanating from Magikarp in rolling, unmistakable waves. Could go either way, but based on other play and lurking of late, leaning scum on Magikarp.

I think LlamaFluff is probably town and wrong, though, as opposed to scum and lying.

Do you think Phij and Flubber can't be scum together?

Massive has posted things that I generally agree with. When people seem to see things the same way I do, I tend to read them as town

This isn't always a good idea. Scum can easily manipulate their reads to match any given townie's. A lot of the time, it's the guy going against the grain that is the towniest player in the game.

[Egg]

Lurking in the bushes:
Luca Blight

Scum:
PM
Massive

Good posting

[Egg]

TheDude, can you show me the difference between Flubber's town meta and his scum meta?

Yes. I think this.

Why?

Whether you agree with him or not, he DID put out reasons for voting Beck. Two, I find the people pushing for his lynch for pretty bad reasons to be much more indicative of his alignment than his actual posts.

Yeah, saying his posts are scummy and he's trying to make town (phij) look like scum make a pretty solid case. Which points against phij do you disagree with? Specifically, what about my case do you see as being wrong?

[Egg]

Phij, do you have anything to say about my case or just that I'm scum because you don't like me attacking you? What about my case specifically reads as scum motivated rather than just misguided if you are actually town? See, this is why I think you are scum. I see no attempt to distinguish between the two on your own. This can be said about almost every read you have given. I can't follow any line of thinking at all except that anyone who is voting you is scum and everyone else is town. That is survivalistic play, aka scum play. Note that I say this before reading the rest of your reads in the post I am responding to.

Still to phij: why does flubber's pressure make TheDude town? Also, do you really think the scum team is me/josh/emo/flubber/beck? Five scum is kind of a lot. That's also 66% of your wagon (flubber being your only scum read off the wagon), so OMGUS much?

Note to self: Lissa and Boo are on the wagon and Phij didn't call them scum. Possible bussing even though I am town reading both players at this point. Actually, he forgot Lissa completely so that would probably be a town tell if Phij is scum because scum don't usually forget scum partners. So maybe Boo for bussing.

[Egg]

Just a heads up, I have very little internet access through next Friday.

Vote Luca

Tell me I'm wrong.

[Egg]

You're 50% wrong.

How is that possible?

She maintained it was a 'great lynch', but was unable to answer why exactly that was.

She already showed you that this isn't true. When you repeated it anyway, I showed you the same thing. Why are you still saying it?

Emo, you said we learned "tons" from the Phij lynch. Can you elaborate on specifically what you learned?

It is real easy to state something is a terrible lynch after they flip town. What about all of the suspicions prior to the lynch? Does PM being an easy option prevent him from being scum? You say there is definitely scum on his wagon, but have you considered that it is just as likely for town to push for an easy option. Who are the scum that are not on PM's wagon?

You guys are probably both right. I'm sure there is scum on the wagon. There always is. The entire team though? No. And Luca acting like the phij lynch was the worst thing ever, when he admitted suspicion of phij himself, looks like scum not wanting to appear on the wagon. Of course, scum on the wagon probably means I'm wrong about Josh, Lissa, or Bookitty.

Thesp, based on your posts, I think my reasons may be similar to yours. I just think I noticed it first. The fact that you seem to see it too, gives you town points depending on when you saw it. This assumes you saw it. I'd rather not discuss it further though.

It's funny. The Josh case makes a lot of sense. But Luca made it. Not sure what to make of that yet.

[Egg]

Luca, maybe. Not everyone plays the same. I personally think there's probably a scum on the wagon, a scum who defended phij, and a scum who did what you did if I had to guess now.

Flubber, ah. Gotcha

[Egg]

Luca, it's mostly that I'm having trouble believing that you genuinely believe your points against Emo. Like I'd be more surprised to find out the suspicion was real than that it was fake. Also, nice misrep. I didn't say being off the wagon was scummy. I said that scum are probably split between being on and off the wagon. Go read my post again. It's there.

[Egg]

Wait, when did Emo claim vanilla?

[Egg]

Egg:

I'm currently out of town and have unreliable internet access. I don't see my wagon going up to L-1 but I'll claim VT. glhf guys

Ok.

So I 180'd on Emo because I thought she was a mason with TheDude. Guess I was wrong. Heading in to work though. Will think it through.

[Egg]

BooKitty, you asked for a reads list. Here's towniest at top, scummiest at bottom:
Beck-town
Lissa- town
Llama -lean town
TheDude - lean townish
Flubber -weak town
Bookitty - weak town
Thesp -weak scum
Josh - weak scum
Emo - scum
Luca -scum

Reading now

[Egg]

Was gonna say Josh's 624 where he forgot phij's flip is probably a town slip. Looks more like a typo now though.

Beck, can you elaborate on your Thesp read? I thought for sure you were scum reading him hard. Now a wagon pops up and you show hesitance to join it. Why?

Josh, what makes Emo's phij vote worse than anyone elses? Not that I disagree. I just want to see where you are coming from.

Preview edit:
Luca, I explained the Emo thing. I dropped my case because she looked like masons with TheDude.

Josh, probably not.

Luca, I noticed Bookitty's vote as well. I'm keeping it in mind in case I'm wrong about you.

[Egg]

TheDude, Llama's game is hard to read so far. Nothing stands out as scummy. I'm mostly reserving judgement on him for later in the game. But as of right now, as I said, nothing looks scummy. Lissa's early game, she asked all questions that I could see myself asking. It's such a genuine scum hunting effort that I just can't see her being scum right now. I know she's faded into the background since that, but I liked her early play that much. Unless something major comes up, I'm convinced she is town.

As the third voter on my wagon when there's been a general murmur of suspicion against me, I'm curious why I wouldn't be the "easy option". As far as why you wouldn't go after someone else, I'm looking forward to find out why, after you flip!

Yeah, I agree with this. Seems clear as day to me. Not that the easy vote is always on town, but opportunistic scum makes sense here and you guys probably aren't scum together. But one thing is bothering me about Lucascum, and yes I realize I'm still voting him. If he's scum, I'm having a hard time pinning who his buddies are. He said he looks out of place on my reads list. I kind of agree. I have to go all the way up to Flubber before I see a name where I'm not going "Nah, probably not buddies".

Bookitty, is it really a surprise to see someone "freak out" when you vote a town read?

Guys, I might unvote soon. This Luca thing doesn't feel right. Actually. Yeah.

Unvote

I'm trying to remember stuff about my old Emo case and look at her recent play. I'll probably compare that with Josh and Bookitty and decide who to vote between them. Thesp's Luca stance looks decently genuine. I have other obligations, but consider closer looks on Josh and Bookitty part of my to do list.

[Egg]

Bookitty, my mind is falling into the trap on using associatives before flips. I know I shouldn't do it, but it happens in my head regardless. The list I posted at your request is based on individual scumminess. None of my other scum reads fit with Luca. My mind says that makes Luca probably town and I start seeing holes in the case against him. Like his persistence on certain points. It might be a personality thing rather than a scum thing. Basically, I'm second guessing myself too much. Also, another thing you are seeing is that I tend to be honest with myself that my reads aren't going to be perfect. I know I'm good, but not THAT good. The scum team isn't Luca/Emo/Thesp. I don't nail scum teams every time I post a reads list. Especially not when Phij and Massive were my top two scum reads.

[Egg]

Beck, Thesp has three votes, not two. More than anyone else. I consider that a wagon. But, fair on the rest.

[Egg]

Sorry guys, my look back is getting delayed. Baby came today

[Egg]

Taking the baby home tonight. Off V/LA some time early next week. As of right now, I can live with a Josh lynch if that's what it comes down to, but I was really hoping to do my reread first. RL usually doesn't slow my play down as much as it has lately.

[Egg]

Ok, reading up.

Page 28:
I don't like Josh's Lissa vote. Not just because I disagree with it, but because it is out of the blue, he gives no reasons, and shows confidence in the vote that isn't consistent with, well, anything. Then there's the timing. It comes right after Llama's vote on him.

I like Beck's points against Emo and Luca's point against Thesp. However, my mind is tying Bookitty and Thesp together and I want that to resolve itself before running up either of the two.

I don't like Josh SK hunting and speculating the scum's kill was blocked. There was one kill. There is no evidence of any of this. Only scum or someone who killed massive that isn't scum could have any insight on this. And SK hunting makes me doubt Josh could be a vig. Occam's Razor points to Josh scum here.

Page 29:
Josh, that progression on Lissa's Emo read feels natural. Reads change. And she isn't all over the place. It gradually goes from scum to town. I don't see why you have a problem with that.

Thanks for the congrats guys.

Page 30:
Bookitty, same thing I said above about Lissa. TheDude's progression of his Luca read feels natural. He didn't like the inactivity. Luca started posting. Read changes.

Page 31:
Bookitty, I asked TheDude about "Ellitell" on the off chance that it came from a scum QT or something. He responded by saying it was mentioned a while back and he couldn't remember where. It's more likely that he's telling the truth than lying.

Josh, why were you looking for me to vote you when I was still undecided?

Page 32:
Luca's point about Emo's VT claim seeming town actually is a good one. I'm still torn on her. Those TheDude interactions feel weird knowing they aren't masons. They seemed careful about calling each other town at first and didn't seem to consider that the other could be scum.

Vote Josh

[Egg]

Yeah, if I was a doc and saw a NK, I'd assume I protected wrong. Doc is also easy to claim.

Unvote

We have time to think this through. I'll make a decision after work tonight.

[Egg]

Vote Josh

I decided.

[Egg]

Guys, we're gonna need to speedwagon someone. 2 days to deadline.

[Egg]

Thesp, I've started doubting my Luca scum read for two reasons. One, I can't see any potential scum buddies. Lame for Day 2 with no scum flips, I know. But then I think everything I was seeing as scummy is just his personality. The whole talking in circles, repeating things that don't seem to make sense, and just being so stubborn. I don't think that all makes him scum. Problem is, it doesn't make him town either. Luca is just going to be one of those people that I have a tough time reading.

Luca, Thesp's vote is fine. I'm not saying Thesp is town and I'm not just saying I like his vote because it matches mine. Look at the situation. It's time to consolidate votes. We have two days to get a lynch through. Having four players at L-4 isn't going to do that. Thesp is a smart enough player to realize four people aren't. Going to vote you in the next two days. If he is town, it makes no sense for him to contribute to a no lynch. If he is scum and Josh is town, sure. Dead town doc. If he. Is scum with Josh, maybe he sees an opportunity to bus (although I wouldn't here). So basically it's the right vote unless Josh is his scumbuddy or he has a ridiculously town read on Josh (which doesn't appear to be anywhere near true).

[Egg]

Luca. Johny. This isn't a marathon game. Or a chat room. Come on.

But yeah. Nothing has really changed for me. I'll check on this as much as I can before deadline, but I'm working just over 16 hours tomorrow so after about 2pm EST, don't expect me to be around.

[Egg]

Llama, so you think Josh is either SK or town? You don't think he could be mafia whose kill failed or anything like that?

[Egg]

Actually. If Josh flips mafia and there turns out to be a SK, TheDude or Lissa makes sense as mafia's kill target last night and a possible SK. Maybe I should take off the tinfoil, but it just popped into my head.

[Egg]

Llama, ok. Fair. I can follow that logic. What I can't follow is: "hmm. One kill. I protected llama. I must have stopped a kill and a SK killed massive. Let's see if I can figure out who the SK is". So I think it's more likely that he is scum with a little more info on what actually happened last night than the rest of us.

[Egg]

Actually. If Josh flips mafia and there turns out to be a SK, TheDude or Lissa makes sense as mafia's kill target last night and a possible SK. Maybe I should take off the tinfoil, but it just popped into my head.

Why me or Lissa?

Because if Josh is mafia and there's a SK, and a kill was stopped last night, it explains Josh going after you two. Basically, scum try killing you or Lissa. Day 2 starts and massive is dead. It's more logical that they assume they shot a NK Immune SK who shot massive than it is to assume a redirector, busdriver, or successful doc protection + SK. It's also more logical than what Josh is actually claiming. Obviously, this is just a tinfoil theory without a Josh flip or two kill night though. Why don't you think Llama believes his reasoning for Josh town? I actually followed his logic just fine after some clarification.

The first paragraph of Bookitty's 1006 sums up my thoughts pretty well. It's just not natural town doc thinking.

[Egg]

[Quote="Johny"] Who are you thinking for a lynch, Egg?[\quote]

Josh. The guy I'm voting.

[Egg]

Johnny, I don't exactly think a Josh lynch is unlikely, especially with the votes after you asked. But if the compromise were Luca vs Lissa, I'd pick Luca.

[Egg]

Yeah, no mason claim. We gain absolutely nothing from it.

I need to reevaluate my town reads because my top three scum reads right now are Luca, Johnny (based on Emo), and Flubber (process of elimination) and I have very little confidence in that.

Guessing Josh was just dead wrong and Llama was never targetted for a kill. Not sure where the whole SK stuff came from, but whatever.

Won't be interested in lynching Beck or Thesp today. Don't ask me why. I don't care to explain right now.

So maybe I need to be open to the idea I'm wrong on Lissa or TheDude.

Ehhh, I could maybe see Flubber/TheDude/one of Luca/Johnny. I really don't think I'm wrong on Lissa and Luca/Johnny aren't buddies because of the Luca<->Emo interactions. Maybe I'm not as far off as I thought here.

I guess I'm gonna look at Flubber and TheDude.

[Egg]

Flubber:
ISO 0-2: RVS. Meaningless
3: Not sure why he had to clarify so quickly he's not a doublevoter. Would have been fun to run with it. But meh.
4:his phrasing on "what seems to be the problem" is interesting. I could see him being scum with TheDude or Emo here, but maybe not both. Maybe it's Flubber/TheDude/Luca then...
7: Decides to pursue Emo. Supports the above.
10/13: Called phij lynch bait and then VI. Sounds like scum who knew he was town. I don't see any attempt to determine phij's alignment here.
12: Asks TheDude to elaborate on Lissa scum read. I'm gonna IIOA this one because there are too many possibiities and I think it's obvious that trying to keep a buddy talking about scumreading a townie is one and distancing is another.
14/15: Pressuring TheDude. Let's see if it goes anywhere.
17-21: on to Emo now.
22: back to TheDude. Hasn't said TheDude is scum yet. Actually, doesn't really seem to imply it either. Just a lot of questions about TheDude's reads.
23-28: Uses site meta to defend Luca from a lurker lynch. I remember not liking this. Also stresses waiting for a replacement.
29/30: comes to a weak conclusion Luca is town.
31-44: more of the same plus defending from Llama. Still pushing Emo.
45: wishy washy maybe flipping on Luca.
46-56: mostly same but now Josh is scum.

Gotta finish later. Celebrating Thanksgiving today.

[Egg]

Yeah, no mason claim. We gain absolutely nothing from it.

I need to reevaluate my town reads because my top three scum reads right now are Luca, Johnny (based on Emo), and Flubber (process of elimination) and I have very little confidence in that.

Guessing Josh was just dead wrong and Llama was never targetted for a kill. Not sure where the whole SK stuff came from, but whatever.

Won't be interested in lynching Beck or Thesp today. Don't ask me why. I don't care to explain right now.

So maybe I need to be open to the idea I'm wrong on Lissa or TheDude.

Ehhh, I could maybe see Flubber/TheDude/one of Luca/Johnny. I really don't think I'm wrong on Lissa and Luca/Johnny aren't buddies because of the Luca<->Emo interactions. Maybe I'm not as far off as I thought here.

I guess I'm gonna look at Flubber and TheDude.

^shit, forgot about llama. Not sure where he fits in. I'll look later.

[Egg]

I don't want to spend the entire day looking for time to finish ISOs, but Flubber/TheDude/Luca look like scum to me right now.

Vote Luca

I'll explain why him over TheDude and Flubber another time.

[Egg]

Johnny, was that at me? My last few posts should make that clear.

Luca, I was pretty convinced Josh was scum. Fair point though that flubber and TheDude might not be good buddy candidates for you. If I remember right, it was mostly Josh, Emo (now Johnny) and Thesp that didn't look like buddies to you. But Flubber maybe not either. As for your self vote, I've been trying to determine whether that was genuine or not. I haven't decided yet. I don't think you were ever in a position where your lynch seemed like it was definitely going to happen with your vote. You also unvoted and if town, there was never a time when your lynch would have truly benefited the town. I'm not sold that it was a town tell, but I don't see any evidence either way on it. There's also a lot of process of elimination going on considering I was scumreading phij and massive Day 1, Josh Day 2, and to an extent even Bookitty. Also, I said I had reasons for voting you that I'd reveal later. As for Thesp's vote, I don't care about it. Much. Of course the company on a wagon factors in to a lot of the votes I make and I'm pretty sure Thesp is town as of right now, but I have other reasons for voting you as I said. So, coincidence? Not entirely. Pursuaded by Thesp? No.

[Egg]

Thing is, I've pulled that same move for town points before. It needs the threat of actually happening to actually look town to me. Your move lacked that. You backed off of it. And you are now using it to defend yourself. It may or may not be a true self sacrafice.

No-one was interested, or even really commented on it though

I was plenty interested. Just wanted to guage it.

You're right though, in hindsight, that it makes sense for scum to be all over that Josh lynch. And if you are town, sure, maybe it even makes sense for them to vote you. I'll have to go back and look at the Josh lynch again if I ever have the time. Scum might be easy to find reading it with the knowledge that he really was a doc.

And your argument with Flubber could have easily been faked after we all called your other stuff town vs town and obv not bussing.

You do raise some fair points though. I'm not as confident you are scum as Thesp seems to be. Reads wise, this has been one of my worst games ever so my confidence in general is kind of shot right now.

[Egg]

Not sure. I haven't read back over it yet.

[Egg]

My process of elimination is that my scum reads all died and flipped town. Even a few town reads leaves me with very few names who could be scum. Day 1, phij and massive topped my scum list. Then it was Josh with Bookitty right up there. Now I'm pretty sure you are town. I'm pretty sure Beck is town. I still like Lissa for town. I'm only left with Luca, TheDude, Flubber, Johnny, and Llama who could be scum. I don't think it's Llama although I guess it could be. I don't think Johnny and Luca are scum together. So without any analysis at all, that still means either I'm dead wrong or it's TheDude, Flubber, and probably one of Johnny/Luca with Llama next in line if TheDude or Flubber is town. And I don't think Llama and Flubber look anything like buddies either.

[Egg]

Post 814: Josh is L-1. TheDude, Llama, Beck, Egg, Bookitty. Statistically, there is probably already a scum here [TheDude, Llama, Beck from my PoV]
816: Luca calls out Bookitty's vote.
818: apparently Luca is happy with a Josh lynch though.
825: Beck thinks Josh slipped.
826: Lissa intends to hammer
827: josh claims doc.
829: beck expresses doubt, but still unvotes. Not sure I see scum backing off like that unless it's for town points that Beck doesn't really need.
830: Thesp doesn't believe the claim. Wants Josh lynched. Thesp, why didn't you put Josh at L-1 in this post?
831: lissa doesn't believe the claim. Same question I gave Thesp above.
837-839: Josh vs Lissa about why he SK hunted. Still makes no sense to me.
847-848: TheDude unvotes. "Pretty sure it's the wrong move" to lynch josh after his claim. Seems to be asking if it's generally accepted, but kind of assuming no. Shifts his focus to Lissa
849: Josh asks TheDude to vote Lissa.
850: TheDude thinks that Josh has to be NK'd. This quote would be more interesting if Josh hadn't been lynched.
852: Lissa continues to go after Josh (or maybe just defend herself from him). Still no vote.
857:TheDude asks Josh for a SK case on him. Interesting in hindsight that he preferred this wild goose chase to any kind of scum case.
864: Lissa says it's doubtful Josh is town. Still isn't voting him. Hmm.
866: Josh says Thesp is fishing out a cop
874: Llama votes Lissa for avoiding the Josh wagon. I can actually see where he is coming from now.
880: TheDude still believes Josh.
890: Thesp compromise votes Josh. Would rather lynch Luca.
The rest of the page: Thesp vs Luca
908: Johnny votes Luca. Also expresses suspicion of Josh.
910: Luca self votes. Still only L-2. No real threat of being lynched.
933: Luca switches to Llama. Counterproductive with deadline approaching. Seems to avoid the Josh lynch he was ok with before. Maybe he was worried about the wagon looking bad with Josh's flip?
936: Thesp re votes Luca.
946: At L-2, Luca claims VT. Wants to "take one for the team". Luca, did you suddenly decide to believe Josh's claim or...?
950: Johnny encourages Luca to discuss his Llama read. Still counterproductive.
962: Luca re-votes himself. L-1. There's the threat of a lynch I was looking for. Now I can see Luca's self vote being a town tell. Hmm.
970: With Luca at L-1, Lissa finally votes Josh, citing Bookitty's case. Interesting timing.
971: Flubber calls Luca a safe lynch. Says he'd hammer Josh. Look at that. Potential Luca buddies in back to back posts.
999: Luca unvotes. See, this is the kind of thing that doesn't seem like he genuinely wanted his own lynch over Josh's.
1008: Luca votes Lissa. He's been on every wagon but Josh's since his claim.
1044: Josh, Luca, and Lissa are L-3. One of the failed counterwagons has to be on scum. Honestly, the Lissa one looks more likely to be town driven.
1054: Thesp switches to Josh.
1060/1061: TheDude does a complete 180 to put Josh at L-1. This is what obvscum looks like.
1062: Johnny declares intent. Not sure why. Josh already claimed.
1063: Luca offers to hammer.
1078: Luca hammers.

So, based on the above...

Town:
Thesp - his stances are completely logical during that time.
Beck - for his Josh unvote
Llama - absolutely nothing about the way he played the end of that day looks like scum

Wavering on:
Lissa - I don't like her play around the Josh wagon. Everything about her play screamed town before, but I just don't know now.
Luca - this is tough. I see strong scum tells with a hint of town tells that dispute those scum tells.
Johnny - I feel like he's the opposite alignment of Luca, whatever that may be.

Scum:
Flubber - mostly process of elimination
TheDude - there's no way you play cautiously on a doc claim, see the wagon dissolve and rebuild, and suddenly 180 to put the guy at L-1 as part of a natural town thought process.

Unvote, Vote TheDude

Teams I don't see:
Luca with Thesp or Johnny
Thesp with Beck
Llama with Lissa or Flubber.

[Egg]

Johnny whats up

[Egg]

Johnny, I can't say much about Luca's unvote. I unvoted him earlier in the game for kind of similar reasons. If you dislike a wagon at this stage of the game, either someone is bussing or your reads are wrong. I don't fault him for taking a step back to reevaluate. On thesp, I mostly meant that his thought process near the Josh lynch felt like a townie trying to solve the puzzle rather than scum trying to appear town. Thesp just isn't scum.

[Egg]

PoE townreads are a thing?

Usually not when you only have two scumreads...

[Egg]

Lissa, I initially read that as Flubber saying he reversed his Luca read. Rereading it, I was wrong.

Saw TheDude's claim and Llama's post. Keeping my vote on TheDude

[Egg]

TheDude, if you kept reading from that point, you'd find that I completely forgot about Llama in pst 1086.

Show me why you and Flubber don't make sense as buddies.

You are either severely misunderstanding my position on your Josh vote or you are misrepping it. You unvoted saying it's bad to lynch a doc claim and then did it anyway when you saw it was still a viable option. That shows opportunism. I was voting Josh when Luca was the lead wagon. That shows more confidence in one scum read than another.

[Egg]

Yeah, massclaim would be dumb after using up the entire day first and getting someone to L-1.

[Egg]

Yeah, with a dead doc, what else could have happened to the scum kill? And I really don't like that he waited until he could have easily been hammered by someone who thought the claim was complete and waits until now to say he's supposedly a JOAT. Not buying it.

Luca, cop results depend on the Mod.

[Egg]

Beck, how strong is your Llama read? Is he your strongest town read?

[Egg]

Well, I've decided that Bookitty is okay, but that's not so helpful.

This was your first post Day 2. Doesn't look like an innocent on Flubber. If anything, it looks like an innocent on Bookitty who you claim to have shot.

TheDudeAbides: My general read on Flubber didn't suddenly change. I'm curious why yours did an apparent 180.

It didn't. I've never been scum reading Flubber. I had some concerns and llamafluff raised some others, so I took a harder look at him.

You investigated a guy you never thought was scum?

[Egg]

Egg is taking things out of context, but no surprises there.

How do you figure?

I went back to see if you crumbed your result. Answer: Negative

I went back to see if you investigating Flubber makes sense in your Day 2 posts. Answer: Negative

Prove me wrong. Should be easy if you are telling the truth.

[Egg]

Was looking more than requesting. They're not there. He'd have told us by now. May as well let him pop in one more time in case I missed something though.

[Egg]

Scum/scum defeats the purpose of being neighbors.

[Egg]

That depends. With the SK flip, are we thinking two scum or three? If three, no lynch is the right play. If two, I could go either way.

[Egg]

Wait somebody walk me through why a no-lynch makes sense?

If there are 3 scum, there are 5 town. If we lynch town and scum kill someone successfully, 3/3= endgame.

If we no lynch and scum kills, 3 scum 4 town. Same situation with a higher percentage chance of lynching scum.

[Egg]

Three people haven't posted today

[Egg]

If scum no killed, Luca is starting to look more and more like scum because there is really no point but he seems to think they did and will again.

[Egg]

You're the only one who seems to think scum no killing makes any sense whatsoever.

[Egg]

You seemed to be assuming that they did last night and will again tonight. Maybe I'm mistaken?

[Egg]

Well you clearly think they'll no kill tonight. The reasoning behind a no lynch assumes scum wouldn't waste their kill like that. So by arguing against a no lynch, you think they would do it. If you think they would, Occam's razor would say that's why there was no kill last night. And let me be clear that I don't want this to turn into "what happened to the kill?" because there's no reason to out potential power roles. I was just saying that after any kind of massclaim later on, if we can't determine what happened, I'm keeping you in mind. Honestly, I'd prefer if this conversation stopped until that time.

[Egg]

Thesp, the Beck one is still on hold. I don't remember the JoshB one.

Process of elimination is giving me Lissa as scum. I still think exactly one of Johnny/Luca is scum. That means there is a scum in Beck/Llama/Thesp too.

Thesp is gonna hate this, but I just thought of something else that has to wait too.

[Egg]

Popcorn is fine with me

[Egg]

Llama, what do you think happened to scum's N3 kill?

[Egg]

VT

Beck next

[Egg]

Thesp, I wish I had my laptop to do the proper quoting and everything but...

On beck, as Johnny said, he was clearly crumbing a power role day 1. He was also showing extreme confidence that llama was town which I took as an innocent result. That's why I asked if llama was his strongest read hoping he'd hint at any other results he might have in case he got nod.

I acted similarly with you because bookings said he had you as town for reasons, then flipped mason. I assumed you were a mason.

Quick thought. Nobody claimed anything that can stop a kill. So we still don't know what happened on the night with no kill.

Also, with beck claiming to have cleared llama, either he's lying which I doubt, the team is Thesp lose a Johnny, or we have two scum. Therefore, I'm fine with a lynch on any of those three.

[Egg]

Auto correct kicked my ass in that post holy shit.

Lissa I meant you. I'm half dead from waking up early today and forgot Luca. So he could be scrum instead of Johnny. So yeah I guess Thesp or lissa is my preference.

Might vote lissa soon but I wanna think first. Mostly making sure I'm not forgetting something obvious.

Maybe this is confirmation bias, but lissas vote seems panicky.

[Egg]

Lissa feels very inauthentic to me here.

I need to read more on Egg. I'm still a bit hung up on the "connection" language he used re: Beck, but I imagine he's not the lynch today anyway.

You kept saying early in the game that he was scum and I made sense as a buddy. I was townreading him for reasons outside of his play. I was trying to subtly say that that would be cleared up once Beck claimed assuming I was right.

[Egg]

Vote Lissa

She has to be scum unless there are only two

[Egg]

Huh? Was that hammer?

[Egg]

slightly yes from me, because an endgame would happen regardless of connection