In post 1563, popsofctown wrote:The only read I know for sure is wrong in alignment identification is on me. The alignment reads I'd disagree with the way you've shaded Evenstar throughout the game, and townreading Alchemist at all. But I care more about your analysises being weaker than I expect so often. Your analysis on Kerset that matches mine was good and makes sense but it's been the exception, not the rule, if you flip scum I would think Kerset is town because you'd have a harder time making that for a partner. But your reasoning on Evenstar's jumpiness never looked into why she would be jumpy. Your reasons for townreading Alchemist don't make sense, it's positional seems to ignore the WIFOM presented to Alchemist for which wagons he could be following, and it makes lots of sense for players with his style to be very aware of that. And even when you scumread Bitmap and I agree with the final read your reasoning seems off to me, you're accusatory of different levels of humor across 2 games which is NAI and once again complain about someone being a jumpy player which is just weak. You have to look at specific jumps and determine why the jump is scummy. Jumping around on it's own isn't scum indicative, it's NAI or slightly town indicative since a loyal Mafiosi has 20% fewer lily pads to jump on.
The N&M thing is the most recent chapter.
It's not that I have these hardreads that I want to BoP you for not matching (which is kind of what you're doing to me?), it's that you keep analyzing patterns that don't mean anything so you can post analysis in the thread. Don't worry about any hard reads dying with me, I don't have any reads any stronger than TL!scum and Kers!town.
WRT Evenstar:
i think i did explain comprehensively why i thought her jumpiness had potential scum motivation. She's off meta by a fair bit, and i think everyone who has played with her would agree to this. This alone is not enough to justify a scumread on evenstar - in fact, i have tried to question her and let her do her thing for a while to see if she would produce any good result. She didn't, and while it may be because this game is way way way more active than what i (and possibly she) is used to, i can't townread her out of that, and i think she has more scum equity than other players in here because i know her for being very proactive with her scumhunting methods, and not changing strategy when she sees she's not producing results made me wonder if she was just doing busywork. I don't think i have been shading her, but rather challenging her to stop validating bad play and start producing results. She did, but only partially. I did say she wouldn't be my best lynch for today many times though. She never was my highest scumread, but it was worth noting that she does not look town either.
WRT Alchemist:
i used to scumread him during early game. I've slowly been reconsidering him since then after my exchange with him and his exchange with gamma, ultimately placing him solidly above null (but never in my hard townreads) when i saw bitmap preying over him. I would not lynch him today, but i don't recall ever saying he was one of my strong townreads. Your conviction that i have been townreading him seems born out of bitmap, V&M and salamence having said that rather than you having checked my actual progression on him.
WRT V&M:
they're town for emotion alone. It does not matter how much they try to deny this, but shouting "YOU ARE WRONG! YOU MISREP ME! YOU DON'T READ! YOU'RE SCUM FOR NOT READING! THOSE PLAYERS SCUMREADING YOU ARE NOW MY HARDEST TOWNREADS BECAUSE THEY'RE SCUMREADING YOU!" is being emotional. V&M has absolutely no reason to be angry at me if they were scum, therefore i don't think they are. You know perfectly i scumhunt like this.
WRT Bitmap:
if you look at my progression about him you'll immediately notice that i'm not scumreading him about his jumpiness at all, but rather about his having a very low solve/posts ratio + some bad logical pushes. My analysis of other games where he was town was not to the purpose of scumreading her in this game due to him being off-meta, but rather to verify if my
already existing
scumread of her would have been plausible when put against town!bitmap from other games. If i had determined that was just his playstyle, i would probably have dropped my scumread of him, at least temporarily, because he was within his town meta. But he wasn't. This analysis in particular seems lazy coming from town!pops.
I am placing a huge BoP on you though, and for good reason. I think you're damn good at mafia, and never lazy. I've seen you striking at scum!skitter in lylo and singlehandedly carry town to win while being a replacement in that game - meaning you had to read and re-read the mess we had produced to identify scum!skit AND convince the other players you were correct. You're good, and you're not a lazy player at all.
