Mini 2110: I hate Mafia (Day 8)
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This will probably work best if we only do self-nominations.In post 44, Enter wrote:
Yes. I nominate Venmar to also be part of that group.In post 43, Rautherdir wrote:But seriously, we need 4 other people (but not the vig) to volunteer to not get lynched today, and then I'll explain how this will work. I'm assuming Enter volunteered.
There's a method to my madness, I'll explain it after people have volunteered.In post 45, Farkran wrote:I am leaning towards thinking that the survivor group should be composed of our highest townreads rather than volunteering. I think the benefits of killing our highest TRs later are better suited to this game. I am not opposed to being part of it though.-
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At the end of the game in a town win, there will be the same number of town and mime, thus at least one town will not have to die. And as long as we make sure we always lynch then mimes will have to die. And by limiting the number of valid lynch options we make it more likely we'll get a lynch.In post 51, Venmar wrote:townies have to die to achieve their win condition though. mimes technically don't have to die either if they can get the game to no-lynch twice.-
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At 4v3, 3v2, or 2v1 the resolution is to lynch the vig, who is conf-town.In post 74, Venmar wrote:no-lynch becomes more likely over time, for the record. as we lynch more and more town, the mimes will have a larger % of the votes, and will have less and less incentive to vote on town lynches. once its 5v3 and 4v3, the town have to be unanimous amongst each other to get a lynch through, which can be crippled if even one of the mimes makes into a "town circle", otherwise mimes can just immobilize the vote without an all-town consensus to out-vote them.
also there's no reason why everyone shouldn't have a read on me and enter by now.-
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I didn't notice Hectic volunteering. The group is me, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, and DrDolittle. There are now four possibilities. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 mimes are in the group that volunteered. The game is now divided into three groups, the vig, the group that volunteered, and everyone else.
What's going to happen next, is we're going to ignore what I said earlier about not lynching in that group. The vig is going to shoot someone. Anyone except themselves. And as long as there aren't 2 mimes in that group then town wins.
If the vig shoots town, then the lynch will be in the group the vig shot in. If the vig shoots a mime, then the lynch will be in the group the vig didn't shoot.
On every future day, if the previous day's lynch was on town then you'll lynch in the same group that player was in. If the previous day's lynch was on a mime then you'll lynch in the other group.
Once there are the same number of town and mimes, not including the vig, lynch the vig, and get a town victory.-
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Well, if we get down to one mime left we could abandon following the strategy strictly.In post 227, Gamma Emerald wrote:
Even though this goes against my own idea of how vig should be used, I kinda think this idea is alright having crunched the numbers on it. I am curious if there is a way to improve it because it basically just accepts a loss in one scenario which feels lame super earlyIn post 224, Rautherdir wrote:I didn't notice Hectic volunteering. The group is me, Enter, Venmar, Farkran, Hectic, and DrDolittle. There are now four possibilities. Either 0, 1, 2, or 3 mimes are in the group that volunteered. The game is now divided into three groups, the vig, the group that volunteered, and everyone else.
What's going to happen next, is we're going to ignore what I said earlier about not lynching in that group. The vig is going to shoot someone. Anyone except themselves. And as long as there aren't 2 mimes in that group then town wins.
If the vig shoots town, then the lynch will be in the group the vig shot in. If the vig shoots a mime, then the lynch will be in the group the vig didn't shoot.
On every future day, if the previous day's lynch was on town then you'll lynch in the same group that player was in. If the previous day's lynch was on a mime then you'll lynch in the other group.
Once there are the same number of town and mimes, not including the vig, lynch the vig, and get a town victory.
p-edit:
Yes, that's why I lied about not lynching in that group today. Well, we might not, depends on where the vig shoots.
p-edit2:
Because I haven't really had a chance to answer it yet? But to answer it, I don't really know how to read people yet in this format. That's why I went to solving the game mechanically instead.-
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I am pushing for the vig to be lynched eventually.In post 235, Pyrrha Nikos wrote:
Yeah, that makes sense. If anyone is pushing a particular player to be lynched, I’d definitely be leery of that, especially if it goes against consensus.In post 232, Gamma Emerald wrote:I have ideas on how to read people, but no real solid format. For example, I think scum are likely to be more particular about who is lynched versus town, who probably will mostly just have people they do not want lynched.
But other then that specific case, yeah that's something to be worried about.-
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To the contrary, I only specified that the group wouldn't be lynched on day 1, so mimes might have joined for town equity. My plan simply doesn't care if mimes joined or not. It's up to the vig to decide which group has less mimes. (And in the event the vig picks a group with all three mimes then we still win, as long as the first person killed is town.)In post 238, Pyrrha Nikos wrote:
He wants us to vote, I assume not actual vote for a player to be vigged, so we should probably use heal tags for that to separate the vig vote from the lynch vote. So you aren’t necessarily assuming that mimes aren’t in that volunteer group, I’m guessing? I think that’s probably wise but surely you must have a least a couple of reads by now, right?In post 234, Rautherdir wrote:I don't actually know what the vig's plan is, but it doesn't contradict lynching the towniest of players.-
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Or I could be a mime waiting for a partner to hammer so they can gain town equity.In post 298, Creature wrote:
If that's the case, you not voting yourself should confirm you as town.In post 296, Rautherdir wrote:Well, one more person. I'm at L-1, if I counted correctly.
...
Oh right, that wouldn't even work.-
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Well a possible solution to that is to take someone everyone agrees is town and save them for the second to last lynch. Which might end up being me, except we're getting close to deadline now.In post 338, Creature wrote:
If it's 5v3 it will also be hella hard to push a lynch on townIn post 326, Wake1 wrote:
Why?In post 319, Creature wrote:Yep, better to keep Wake alive to be the last lynch of the game
He should also keep his shot for as long as possible
VOTE: Farkran
If we're needing an alternative to me for today's lynch, this could be it.-
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Because mimes got to choose if they wanted to volunteer or not.In post 346, Hectic wrote:@Rau Could you explain why lynching using your group system is any better than lynching randomly?
Your group system gives us clear odds and percentages of when we should expect to win, but I don't see how it actually increases our chances of winning, statistically speaking, over random lynching?-
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